Faculteit Sociale Wetenschappen Departement Politieke Wetenschappen Building the Bomb An organisational approach to the nuclear terrorism threat Proefschrift voorgelegd tot het behalen van de graad van doctor in de sociale wetenschappen: politieke wetenschappen aan de Universiteit Antwerpen te verdedigen door Brecht Volders Promotor: Prof. dr. Tom Sauer Antwerpen, 2019 Members of the doctoral committee Prof. dr. Tom Sauer (University of Antwerp, promotor) Prof. dr. Wouter Van Dooren (University of Antwerp) Prof. dr. Jacob Shapiro (Princeton University) Members of the jury Prof. dr. Jorg Kustermans (University of Antwerp) Prof. dr. Wyn Bowen (King’s College London) Table of contents Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................................... iv Figures, tables and photos........................................................................................................................ vi 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Setting the research boundaries ................................................................................................... 5 1.2. Plan of the book ............................................................................................................................ 7 2. Assessing nuclear terrorism: the need for an organisational approach? ............................................. 11 2.1. Developing a nuclear terrorism scenario .................................................................................... 11 2.1.1. The physics behind a ‘first generation’ nuclear weapon ...................................................... 13 2.1.2. Various hurdles to a terrorist nuclear device ....................................................................... 16 2.1.3. A nuclear terrorism scenario: coping with a nonroutine nature of technology ................... 38 2.2. The organisational approach: underdeveloped in nuclear terrorism threat assessments .......... 43 2.2.1. The organisational approach in terrorism studies ............................................................... 44 2.2.2. The role of the organisational design ................................................................................... 47 3. Establishing some hypotheses ............................................................................................................ 61 3.1. Organisational design and technology ........................................................................................ 62 3.2. Organisational design and the environment ............................................................................... 69 3.3. Organisational design and the organisational strategy ............................................................... 74 4. Research design.................................................................................................................................. 81 4.1. Case selection ............................................................................................................................. 82 4.2. Data collection and analysis ........................................................................................................ 92 4.3. Data reporting ............................................................................................................................. 96 5. Case study: constructing the first nuclear bombs at Los Alamos ......................................................... 99 5.1. The relevance of Los Alamos..................................................................................................... 100 5.2. Organisational challenges ......................................................................................................... 102 5.2.1. Resource support ............................................................................................................... 102 5.2.2. Level of autonomy ............................................................................................................. 105 5.2.3. Information-sharing ........................................................................................................... 108 5.2.4. Clear and compelling goals ................................................................................................ 110 5.3. Los Alamos: similar to an organic organisational design ........................................................... 112 5.4. Extrapolations to the nuclear terrorism threat ......................................................................... 116 5.4.1. Effectiveness… ................................................................................................................... 116 i 5.4.2. Versus efficiency ................................................................................................................ 118 5.5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 121 6. Case study: the South African PNE program ..................................................................................... 124 6.1. The relevance of South Africa’s PNE program .......................................................................... 126 6.2. Organisational challenges ......................................................................................................... 128 6.2.1. Resource support ............................................................................................................... 129 6.2.2. Level of autonomy ............................................................................................................. 132 6.2.3. Information-sharing ........................................................................................................... 134 6.2.4. Clear and compelling goals ................................................................................................ 136 6.3. South Africa’s PNE program: various features of an organic design ......................................... 137 6.4. Extrapolations to the nuclear terrorism threat ......................................................................... 140 6.4.1. Effectiveness… ................................................................................................................... 140 6.4.2. Versus efficiency ................................................................................................................ 142 6.5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 144 7. Case study: Aum Shinrikyo’s chemical and biological armament activities ........................................ 147 7.1. The relevance of Aum Shinrikyo’s CB activities ......................................................................... 149 7.2. Organisational challenges ......................................................................................................... 151 7.2.1. Resource support ............................................................................................................... 152 7.2.2. Level of autonomy ............................................................................................................. 154 7.2.3. Information-sharing ........................................................................................................... 156 7.2.4. Clear and compelling goals ................................................................................................ 158 7.3. Aum Shinrikyo’s CB activities: various features of a mechanistic design .................................. 160 7.4. Extrapolations to the nuclear terrorism threat ......................................................................... 163 7.4.1. Effectiveness… ................................................................................................................... 163 7.4.2. Versus efficiency ................................................................................................................ 164 7.5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 168 8. Case study: the implementation of 9/11 by Al Qaeda ....................................................................... 171 8.1. The relevance of 9/11 ............................................................................................................... 173 8.2. Organisational challenges ......................................................................................................... 175 8.2.1. Resource support ............................................................................................................... 176 8.2.2. Level of autonomy ............................................................................................................. 178 8.2.3. Information-sharing ........................................................................................................... 180 8.2.4. Clear and compelling goals ................................................................................................ 182 8.3. Al Qaeda’s 9/11 plot: features of an organic design ................................................................. 184 ii 8.4. Extrapolations to the nuclear terrorism threat ........................................................................