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Policy and Players Shaping Investment

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Policy and Players Shaping Investment www.davy.ie Bloomberg: DAVY<GO> Research: +353 1 6148997 Institutional Equity Sales: +353 1 6792816 Davy Research August 16, 2012 Davy Research Research Report: Sector update Caren Crowley Ireland's Electricity Future [email protected] / +353 1 6148997 Barry Dixon [email protected] / +353 1 6148997 Policy and players shaping David McNamara [email protected] / +353 1 6148997 investment 2020 EU climate change commitments to drive growth Table of contents • Despite overcapacity in conventional power generation, the Republic of Executive summary 2 Ireland and Northern Ireland are committed to generating 40% of electricity requirements from renewable resources by 2020 to meet The Single Electricity Market (SEM) – an binding EU climate change targets. all-island wholesale electricity market 4 Some €5bn of capital investment will be required to construct an • additional 3–3.5GW of onshore wind by 2020. SEM generation capacity and fuel mix 8 • Government schemes to support this investment have been implemented in both jurisdictions. Growth in generation capacity 10 Larger industry players to deliver renewable investment Renewable energy incentives 13 • Certain technical challenges and the constrained financing environment Challenges in delivering SEM 2020 renewable mean that scarce capital is more likely to be channelled into projects via energy targets 16 the utilities and larger, more experienced project developers. • The four integrated energy utilities that currently dominate the all- A changing SEM 18 island electricity market – ESB, Bord Gáis Energy, SSE Ireland and Viridian – are best placed to support continued delivery of onshore Retail electricity markets supported by the wind capacity. SEM 21 • Larger project developers such as Bord na Móna, Coillte, Mainstream and Element Power will also feature. Appendix I: REFIT payments in the Republic of Ireland 35 Changing competitive landscape • The presence of the Irish state in the all-island electricity market is set Appendix II: other renewable energy players 36 to lessen with plans for the disposal of Bord Gáis Energy and certain Appendix III: Viridian Wind 38 ESB generation capacity. Further structural changes are possible depending on the outcome of the certification of ESB’s transmission Appendix IV: Bord Gáis Energy assets: assets later in 2012. investments in wind power generating • Regional market integration, backed by further interconnection and capacity 39 compatible UK trading arrangements under the EU Target Model, will Appendix V: EU ETS Phase III – implications bring greater market participation from the UK 'Big 6' utilities. for power generation sector 40 • Either Bord Gáis Energy or Viridian would provide a strategic foothold in the all-island Single Electricity Market (SEM) for an international Important disclosures 42 utility or both could join forces to consolidate the SEM’s competitive landscape and internationalise as the regional market comes to fruition. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. J&E Davy, trading as Davy is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Davy is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange, the London Stock Exchange and Euronext. For branches in the UK, Davy is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. All prices are as of close of previous trading day unless otherwise indicated. All authors are Research Analysts unless otherwise stated. For the attention of US clients of Davy Securities, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, J & E Davy. Research Report: Ireland's Electricity Future August 16, 2012 Executive summary As a result of the economic downturn in Ireland, total annual electricity generated in the Single Electricity Market (SEM) peaked in 2008. This €3bn wholesale electricity market is supplied by more than 9GW of conventional generation capacity. With the dispatchable margin or surplus conventional generation capacity running above 2GW and with a further 2GW of installed onshore wind adding to the surplus capacity, we might not be so interested in the investment landscape. • Authorities in both the ROI and NI However, authorities in both the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and have made substantial binding Northern Ireland (NI) have made substantial binding commitments to commitments to meet EU climate change targets by 2020. meet EU climate change targets by 2020. These include generating 40% • These include generating 40% of of electricity requirements from renewable resources in each jurisdiction. electricity requirements from With renewable electricity running at 17% in ROI and 14% in NI on renewable resources in each an annual basis, a substantial investment in renewable generation is jurisdiction. required to reach 40%. The principal focus in both jurisdictions is onshore wind. Current estimates of required additional onshore wind capacity are 3-3.5GW. This level of project construction will require up to €5bn of capital investment. Support mechanisms have been implemented in both jurisdictions – a Renewable Energy Feed-In-Tariff (REFIT) in ROI and a Renewable Obligation Certificate (ROC) system in NI – to underpin the investment. Political risk is minimised as the cost of these supports is spread across electricity customers in each jurisdiction. Certain technical challenges for system operation with increasing amounts of intermittent wind capacity and the constrained financing environment are impacting project economics. Accordingly, scarce capital is more likely to be channelled into projects via the utilities and larger, more experienced project developers. The SEM’s four integrated energy utilities – ESB, Bord Gáis Energy, SSE Ireland and Viridian – are • The SEM’s four integrated energy utilities – ESB, Bord Gáis Energy, best placed to support the large-scale roll-out hedged by their supply SSE Ireland and Viridian – are best businesses. A balanced portfolio of conventional and renewable placed to support the large-scale generation will become increasingly important to their competitive roll-out hedged by their supply positions as we approach 2020. Larger project developers already present businesses. in the sector such as Bord na Móna, Coillte, Mainstream and Element Power will also feature as financeable counterparties. • The ROI government’s plans for the The ROI government’s plans for the disposal of Bord Gáis Energy and disposal of Bord Gáis Energy and certain elements of ESB’s generation capacity will impact the SEM’s certain elements of ESB’s competitive landscape. Both companies have substantial wind generation capacity will impact the development pipelines and large investment requirements. The potential SEM’s competitive landscape. for further changes to the structure of the state’s continued presence in the ROI electricity market depends largely on the outcome of the 9(9) certification process on ESB’s transmission assets later in 2012. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2012 policy analysis recommends a reassessment of ESB’s vertically integrated structure contrary to current government policy. Regional market integration will alter the competitive landscape. Backed • Regional market integration will by physical interconnection in the form of EWIC, EirGrid’s new alter the competitive landscape. 500MW interconnector (being commissioned in Q3 2012), competition will increase from the UK 'Big 6' utilities. Negotiation for compatible 2 Davy Research Research Report: Ireland's Electricity Future August 16, 2012 trading arrangements under the EU Target Model between SEM and the UK (British Electricity Trading and Transmission Arrangements or BETTA) must be completed by the end of 2016. Of the four SEM integrated energy utilities, ESB and SSE are best • Of the four SEM integrated energy placed to compete in the regional market due to their scale of operations utilities, ESB and SSE are best and their existing UK trading capabilities. Either Bord Gáis Energy or placed to compete in the regional Viridian would provide a strategic foothold in the SEM for an market due to their scale of international utility or both could join forces to consolidate the SEM’s operations and their existing UK trading capabilities. competitive landscape and internationalise as the France-UK-Ireland (FUI) regional market and EU Target Model come to fruition. The ability to finance continued development of onshore wind pipelines in the SEM will drive their medium-term growth and success. 3 Davy Research Research Report: Ireland's Electricity Future August 16, 2012 The Single Electricity Market (SEM) – an all-island wholesale electricity market Background to the SEM The SEM is the single wholesale market for electricity in the ROI and NI. Substantially all electricity generated across the island of Ireland is bought and sold through a single pool, the aim of which is increased • The SEM was the first cross-border competition, efficiency and security of supply. market for electricity in Europe. • It is the wholesale market for electricity in the ROI and NI, SEM was the first cross-border market for electricity in Europe when it supporting the transmission of went live on November 1st 2007 and is jointly regulated by the electricity to 3m customers throughout the island of Ireland. Commission for Energy Regulation (CER) in the ROI and the Utility • In 2011, electricity generation in Regulator
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