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Teachers, Commissioners Take Aim 12 Educators, 4 County Commissioners Challenging House, Senate Incumbents
V19, N26 Thursday March 13, 2014 Teachers, commissioners take aim 12 educators, 4 county commissioners challenging House, Senate incumbents By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – The teachers are challenging in the House. The county com- missioners are doing the same in the Senate. Looking for trends heading into the November general election, 12 teach- ers, principals Democrat teacher Mela- and school board nie Wright (left) is in a members are seek- ing Democratic rematch with State Rep. nominations in the Jack Lutz) House, with re- In two other seats, HD21 where State Rep. matches coming in four districts: Timothy Wesco is facing Democrat Jodi Buoscio and in HD16 where Rensselaer School HD29 where State Rep. Kathy Kreag Richardson is facing Board member Richard Ludington is challenging State Rep. Joe Marcum, the Republicans ran unopposed in 2012. In Douglas Gutwein; HD35 where Melanie Wright came very HD28, State Rep. Jeffrey Thompson had no Democratic close to upsetting State Rep. Jack Lutz; in HD46 where opponent in 2012, easily defeated a Libertarian candidate James Mann will face State Rep. Bob Heaton, and in HD62 by more than 18,000 votes, and will face Sean Shanley where Democrat Jeff Sparks narrowly lost to State Rep. Matt Ubelhor. Continued on page 4 The sine die primer By MATTHEW BUTLER INDIANAPOLIS – Legislators who are Indiana and Purdue basketball fans will be too busy Thursday after- noon to watch their respective games only blocks away at the Big Ten Basketball Tournament. Instead, they are trying to meet the self-imposed “It’s completely optional for the deadline of 5 p.m. -
Shake-Up in New Jersey Presidential Stakes
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Contact: PATRICK MURRAY This poll was conducted by the 732-263-5858 (office) Monmouth University Polling Institute 732-979-6769 (cell) [email protected] 400 Cedar Avenue West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling EMBARGOED to: Tuesday, January 15, 2008, 5:00 am SHAKE-UP IN NEW JERSEY PRESIDENTIAL STAKES Hillary still ahead but Obama gains; McCain overtakes Rudy It appears that the early presidential nominating contests have shaken up the primary picture here in New Jersey, especially for the G.O.P. According to the latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll taken after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, Hillary Clinton now leads Barack Obama by 12 points among likely Democratic voters in New Jersey, which is down somewhat from the 19 point lead she held in October. However, the poll found an even larger shake-up on the Republican side, with John McCain now holding a slight 4 point lead over Rudy Giuliani. Just a few months ago, the former New York mayor held a commanding 32 point lead over the Arizona senator. Among likely Democratic primary voters in New Jersey, Hillary Clinton currently claims support from 42% of voters, compared to 30% for Barack Obama, 9% for John Edwards, and 2% for Dennis Kucinich. Another 17% remain undecided. Support levels for Clinton, Edwards and Kucinich are nearly identical to what they registered in the October 2007 poll. However, Obama’s support has increased by 7 percentage points on the heels of his strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire. “Senator Obama’s early win in Iowa has swung some previously undecided New Jersey voters into his camp, but Senator Clinton’s support among rank and file Democrats here remains strong,” commented Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. -
Many Republicans Unaware of Romney's Religion PUBLIC STILL
NEWS Release . 1615 L Street, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel (202) 419-4350 Fax (202) 419-4399 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Wednesday, December 5, 2007 Andrew Kohut, Director Kim Parker, Senior Researcher Many Republicans Unaware of Romney’s Religion PUBLIC STILL GETTING TO KNOW LEADING GOP CANDIDATES Even as the 2008 presidential Knowledge of GOP Candidates’ Backgrounds campaign draws increasing news coverage, the public shows limited ---Percent correct--- Name the candidate who is… Total Rep Dem Ind awareness of the personal Former mayor of NYC {Giuliani} 86 90 84 85 backgrounds of some of the top GOP Former Vietnam POW {McCain} 56 65 49 61 Former TV & movie actor {Thompson} 47 59 42 46 candidates. Mormon {Romney} 42 60 33 40 Former governor of MA {Romney} 35 46 28 34 While 86% of the public is An abortion rights supporter {Giuliani} 30 41 25 30 Former governor of AR {Huckabee} 26 36 20 28 able to name Rudy Giuliani as the A former Baptist minister {Huckabee} 21 28 17 21 former mayor of New York City, only Opposed to the Iraq war {Paul} 14 21 12 13 about half as many – 42% of the public – correctly identified Mitt Romney as a Mormon and even fewer (35%) knew that Romney was the former governor of Massachusetts. Romney’s speech on religion and politics, scheduled for Dec. 6, is widely seen as an effort to assuage concerns that some religious conservatives in the GOP have raised about his Mormon faith. Among Republicans, 60% could name Romney as the Republican candidate who is Mormon, but 40% could not. -
Upset City: Ballard's Shock Wave
V14 N14 Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2007 Upset City: Ballard’s shock wave 15 incumbent mayors fall across the state, sending a defiant message to Statehouse By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - Republican mayor-elect Greg Ballard took the stage at the Murat on Election night and told a frenzied crowd, “Welcome to the biggest upset in Indiana political history! This is a classic, if not the ultimate, example of grassroots politics.” Ballard’s upset of Mayor Bart Peterson was one of at least 15 incum- bents who were defeated Tuesday. This will jolt the Indiana political establishment and send a shudder through the Indiana Republican Greg Ballard forged what he called the “biggest upset” in Hoosier history Statehouse which must come up with a when he deposed Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson Tuesday. (HPR Photo by Brian A. property tax solution in 2008 or face a Howey) similar scenario a year from now. Incumbent mayors in Terre Washington, Huntingburg and Frankfort were upset as vot- Haute, Anderson, LaPorte, Delphi, West Lafayette, Tell City, Franklin, Madison, Charlestown, Plymouth, Vincennes, See Page 3 Hoosiers are changing By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - My competitor at Indiana Legisla- tive Insight likes to propagate the notion that Hoosiers are “resistant to all change.” “Ballard shouldn’t have an Allow me to retort. Since May 2004, Hoosiers have voted out Senate inaugural ball. He should have an Finance Chairman Larry Borst, Gov. Joe Kernan, and Senate President Pro Tempo- amnesty ball.” re Robert D. Garton. The Indiana House has switched hands, meaning we’ve had - Former Indiana two speakers in that time span. -
Retirement Wave Subdued; but the Locals Are Coming Legislators Will Face Tests from Mayors, Local Officials “And So Here We Are in by BRIAN A
V 12, No 25 Thursday, Feb. 16, 2006 Retirement wave subdued; but the locals are coming Legislators will face tests from mayors, local officials “And so here we are in By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis the White House, Jerry, About that wave of retirements predicted after the legislator health care for life issue surfaced? honoring the great It didn’t happen. Only Chicago White Sox. State Rep. David Yount retired, and that was for busi- I’m proud to be with ness reasons. Only you. God bless your Democratic State Reps. John Aguilera of East Chicago and championship.” octogenarian Ben GiaQuinta –– President Bush, hor- of Fort Wayne, Sheila Klinker of Lafayette, Jeff Espich of ing the 2005 World Series Uniondale were unfiled at champions, last Monday today’s deadline. Party State Rep. Jackie Walorski (right) will face former senator and sources tell HPR that Espich Mishawaka Mayor Bob Kovach in November. (HPR Photo) and Klinker are expected to run for another term. Alicia Lopez-Rodriguez has filed for Aguilera’s HD12 seat. She The Howey Political Report is published lost to Aguilera by a narrow margin in 2004. No Democrat has filed for the GiaQuinta by NewsLink Inc. It was founded in 1994. seat, though sons Phil and Mark, a former Fort Wayne Councilman, could be expect- ed to run if the incumbent decides to retire. Republican Kevin Howell has filed for Brian A. Howey, Publisher HD80. Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Writer But there are 26 primaries involving legislative districts, and 20 involve chal- Jack E. Howey, Editor lenges to incumbents. -
The Democrats
CBS NEWS POLL For release: Friday, June 29, 2007 6:30 P.M. EDT CAMPAIGN 2008 June 26-28, 2007 Many Americans are looking for even more choices in the race for the presidency than the 18 announced candidates they now have: Should Fred Thompson decide to officially enter the race for the Republican nomination, he is already a strong contender, tying John McCain for second place, after Rudy Giuliani. Americans would like a third political party (especially self-described Independents, and primary voters who say they are dissatisfied with their current choices) -- but Americans have historically liked the idea of more candidate choices. But as of now, most don’t know much about or have an opinion of New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who recently dropped out of the Republican Party, perhaps in anticipation of a run at the presidency in 2008 as a third-party candidate. And on the Democratic side, where most primary voters are satisfied with the choices, Hillary Clinton continues to lead Barack Obama. MIKE BLOOMBERG AND A THIRD PARTY New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's recent party registration change from Republican to “Unaffiliated” has many speculating that he is preparing an independent run for President. That speculation has sparked debate about the need for a third political party. 53% say that a third party is needed to compete with the Democratic and Republican parties. 41% disagree. These views are similar to what they were in 1996, and in 1992 voters also expressed the desire for a new party. Half of both Republicans and Democrats do not think there is a need for a third political party, but 71% of Independents say there is. -
Indiana State Senate
A report to supporters and members of Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG), the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, and allied organizations. This report will be updated as additional election results are received in the hours and days following. Another Election for the Record Books in Indiana Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG), the non-partisan political action program of the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, scored a very successful general election. 48 of 49 IBRG- endorsed candidates facing opposition were victorious, including Republicans and Democrats. Forty-three (43) additional endorsed candidates did not face general election challenges. Twelve (12) new legislators won with IBRG-endorsements. IBRG was significantly-engaged in support of six (6) top-target challenger and open-seat races, as well as successfully defending twelve (12) pro-economy incumbents seriously challenged with defeat. In one of the most dramatic turn of events in years, Republicans won significant battles for state legislative seats across the state to expand their “quorum-proof majorities.” These victories were particularly surprising to those working for months closely in campaigns and candidates, as Indiana’s public opinion environment on issues and views of incumbents was - right up until Election Day - about as bad an environment for Republicans and incumbents as seen in years. This marks the third election cycle in a row that Republicans have expanded their margins in the Indiana House and Senate. The Republicans won a net two (2) seat gain in the Indiana House of Representatives to achieve a 71-29 margin. Four (4) incumbent legislators lost reelection bids in the House (one Republican and three Democrats). -
TO: Edwards for President FROM: Global Strategy Group, LLC RE: Updated Electability Data Date December 18, 2007
MEMORANDUM TO: Edwards for President FROM: Global Strategy Group, LLC RE: Updated electability data Date December 18, 2007 Synopsis: Nationwide polling shows John Edwards is the Democrat with the best chance of defeating the Republican candidate in the 2008 Presidential election. All three Democratic candidates have a slight lead on Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani. Edwards’ average margin of victory is greater than Obama’s and well ahead of Clinton’s against the other Republican candidates. Edwards outperforms the other Democratic candidates in match-ups with Republican candidates in key battleground states including Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio. Further, unlike other Democrats who must “run the table” in states where Democrats have been competitive in recent elections, Edwards brings new states into play. This provides alternate scenarios – and a margin for error – when it comes to amassing 270 electoral votes. National electability: This table shows the average margin for each Democrat for nationwide general election polls since the first of November in which they are included in horse race questions. General Election Match-ups Edwards Clinton Obama Rudy Giuliani........ +4 (4 polls) +4 (15 polls) +2 (7polls) Mike Huckabee .... +14 (3 polls) +5 (3 polls) +10 (3 polls) John McCain........ +8 (3 polls) +3 (6 polls) +1 (4 polls) Mitt Romney......... +18 (3 polls) +9 (9 polls) +11 (8 polls) Fred Thompson.... +14 (1 poll) +9 (7 polls) +10 (4 polls) • In national general election polling, Edwards fares better than or at least as well as Clinton and Obama against all five Republicans. • Against Giuliani, all three candidates maintain a slight lead. -
Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Marketing Papers Wharton Faculty Research June 2008 Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces J. Scott Armstrong University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Kesten C. Green Monash University Randall J. Jones Jr. University of Central Oklahoma Malcolm Wright University of South Australia Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers Recommended Citation Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., Jones, R. J., & Wright, M. (2008). Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces. Retrieved from https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/136 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/136 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces Abstract Prior research found that people's assessments of relative competence predicted the outcome of Senate and Congressional races. We hypothesized that snap judgments of "facial competence" would provide useful forecasts of the popular vote in presidential primaries before the candidates become well known to the voters. We obtained facial competence ratings of 11 potential candidates for the Democratic Party nomination and of 13 for the Republican Party nomination for the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. To ensure that raters did not recognize the candidates, we relied heavily on young subjects from Australia and New Zealand. We obtained between 139 and 348 usable ratings per candidate between May and August 2007. The top-rated candidates were Clinton and Obama for the Democrats and McCain, Hunter, and Hagel for the Republicans; Giuliani was 9th and Thompson was 10th. At the time, the leading candidates in the Democratic polls were Clinton at 38% and Obama at 20%, while Giuliani was first among the Republicans at 28% followed by Thompson at 22%. -
Hpr 1998 11 19
Thursday, Nov. 19, 1998 • Volume 5, Number 15 Page 1 of 8 ••••• ....•• • • • 1.M.·.·:.--· Gilroy's field clears; THE -- all eyes on Mcintosh HOWEYT GoUismith decision impacts '99, '00 By BIUAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis Two years ago I sat across a table from Secretary of State Sue Anne Gilroy at the Indianapolis Press Club as we POLITICAL talked a.bout her future. Would she consider running for mayor of Indianapolis if Stephen Goldsmith won the '96 governor's race or declin~d to seek re-election in 1999? REPORT 'Gilroy was non~committal. Even though she had the The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink, background from serving under then-Mayor Richard Lugar, Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is she se med to have her eye on the Statehouse. She had lost a an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the bizarr floor fight at the 1996 Republican Convention for the political process in Indiana. lieutert nt governor's nomination. When Goldsmith lost to Brian A. Howey Frank 1 'Bannon, every signal coming out of the Gilroy editor and publisher camp ointed to a 2000 run for governor. The.Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 ntil last Monday. PO Box 20877 Fax: 317-254-2405 hat's when Goldsmith announced he would not Indianapolis, IN 46220 [email protected] seek a ird term. In the hours prior to Goldsmith's announ [email protected] cemen , there had been rampant speculation that Gilroy would e there to receive an endorsement. She got the next • Washington office: 202-775-3242 best th ng, with Goldsmith saying, "Sue Anne Gilroy might Daytime number: 317-254-2400, Ext. -
Napoleanic Bauer Is Gone ... for Now Third Coup Attempt Ousts Bauer, but 9 Insurgents Won’T Return and Nov
V18, N1 Thursday, Aug. 2, 2012 Napoleanic Bauer is gone ... for now Third coup attempt ousts Bauer, but 9 insurgents won’t return and Nov. 7 is no sure thing By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – The coup that deposed House Minorty Leader B. Patrick Bauer is, in modern Indiana General Assem- bly history, an isolated event and one that had almost always been unsuccessful. State Sen.Vi Simpson was able to engineer a coup against Senate Minority Leader Richard Young a couple of Interim House Minority Leader Linda Lawson with Reps. Dvorak, Charlie Brown, Scott Pelath, Matt years ago, but that happened in Pierce and Terri Austin in Lafayette after the coup. almost matter-of-fact fashion. Young’s heart just didn’t seem With “interim” House Minority Leader Linda Law- to be into it after his unsuccessful 2008 gubernatorial run. son, Hoosiers now have seen three of the four legislative There was none of the theatrics that we saw last week caucuses with a female leader. Only the House Republicans from Bauer. And the Senate minority caucus is tiny and have yet to shatter that ceiling. Currently Rep. Kathy Kreag without much power, so the move was mostly inconse- quential. Continued on page 3 Pat down. Now what? By RUSS STILWELL “We’re off to see the wizard, the Wonderful Wizard of Oz; We hear he is a whiz of a wiz, if ever a wiz there was; If ever, oh ever a wiz there was, the Wizard of Oz is one because; Because , because, ‘‘My own comments on the night of because, because, because, the election were that I asked Hoosiers Because of the wonderful things to support Treasurer Mourdock. -
2018 General Election Report by IBRG (Update15)
A report to supporters and members of Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG), the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, and allied organizations. This report will be updated as additional election results are received in the hours and days following. Tumultuous Political Environment Nets Solid Election Wins Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG), the non-partisan political action program of the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, scored a very successful general election. 70 of 74 IBRG- endorsed candidates facing opposition were victorious. Twenty-one (21) additional endorsed candidates did not face general election challenges. Considerable excitement and upheaval in the Indiana electorate this mid-term election certainly created rough waves and realignments around the state. However, in the end there were few ultimate changes in the political status quo for both candidates and seats held by the parties. Republicans swept all statewide races by significant margins, led by an unexpectedly large double-digit margin victory by Mike Braun for the U.S. Senate seat. In the General Assembly, Republican majorities took a relatively modest hit, but not enough to lose super-majority status. In the House, three (3) incumbent GOP legislators were defeated, resulting in a net breakdown of a 67-33 GOP majority. In the Senate, the Republican super-majority was reduced by just one seat to 40-10 with the defeat of notorious Sen. Mike Delph (R-Carmel). Although the final tally changed little, the Senate battlefield was intense and involved more competitive races than seen in the last decade. It’s very hard to look at the 2018 midterms in Indiana state legislative races as a “status quo” election, even though the number of seats changing was minimal.