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The Democrats CBS NEWS POLL For release: Friday, June 29, 2007 6:30 P.M. EDT CAMPAIGN 2008 June 26-28, 2007 Many Americans are looking for even more choices in the race for the presidency than the 18 announced candidates they now have: Should Fred Thompson decide to officially enter the race for the Republican nomination, he is already a strong contender, tying John McCain for second place, after Rudy Giuliani. Americans would like a third political party (especially self-described Independents, and primary voters who say they are dissatisfied with their current choices) -- but Americans have historically liked the idea of more candidate choices. But as of now, most don’t know much about or have an opinion of New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who recently dropped out of the Republican Party, perhaps in anticipation of a run at the presidency in 2008 as a third-party candidate. And on the Democratic side, where most primary voters are satisfied with the choices, Hillary Clinton continues to lead Barack Obama. MIKE BLOOMBERG AND A THIRD PARTY New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's recent party registration change from Republican to “Unaffiliated” has many speculating that he is preparing an independent run for President. That speculation has sparked debate about the need for a third political party. 53% say that a third party is needed to compete with the Democratic and Republican parties. 41% disagree. These views are similar to what they were in 1996, and in 1992 voters also expressed the desire for a new party. Half of both Republicans and Democrats do not think there is a need for a third political party, but 71% of Independents say there is. DOES THE COUNTRY NEED A THIRD POLITICAL PARTY? Now 3/1996 Yes 53% 53% No 41 42 Bloomberg himself, however, is not well known. Most Americans are undecided or don’t know enough about Bloomberg, and those with an opinion are divided about him. OPINION OF BLOOMBERG All Rep Dem Ind Favorable 10% 11% 10% 9% Not favorable 8 10 7 7 Undecided 19 21 20 17 Haven’t heard enough 62 57 62 66 Bloomberg is popular among his constituents at home; and nationally, 72% of Americans hold a favorable view of New York City. 13% have a bad image. Since the 9/11 attacks, Americans have held extremely positive views of the Big Apple. As has been the case since the start of this early campaign, Democratic primary voters continue to be satisfied with their presidential candidates, while Republican primary voters are still looking for more choices. Only 30% of Republicans are satisfied with their candidates – the lowest number ever. Even though another contender, former Senator Fred Thompson, is poised to enter the race soon, at this point, 61% of Republican primary voters want more choices. SATISFIED WITH YOUR PARTY’S PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS? Republican Democratic Primary Voters Primary Voters Now 5/2007 Now 5/2007 Satisfied 30% 38% 61% 63% Want more choices 61 57 35 35 What may be another indication of dissatisfaction among Republicans is that 56% admit they are not enthusiastic about any of the presidential candidates. Actor and former Senator Fred Thompson, who has yet to enter the race, tops the list among Republican primary voters as the candidate they are most enthusiastic about with 12%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 9%. More Democratic voters are enthusiastic. Among Democratic primary voters, Hillary Clinton (28%) and Barack Obama (22%) top the list as the candidates they are most enthusiastic about. 38% say they are not enthusiastic about a particular candidate. ARE YOU ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT ANY 2008 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE? All Primary Voters Americans Rep Dem Hillary Clinton 16% 4% 28% Barack Obama 13 5 22 Rudy Giuliani 4 9 1 Fred Thompson 3 12 0 Mitt Romney 2 6 0 John McCain 2 4 1 No, none of them 50 56 38 While some voters may be less than enthusiastic about the candidates, most are paying attention to the 2008 presidential campaign. Seven in 10 are paying a lot or some attention. THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FIGHT Former Senator Fred Thompson has not quite entered the Republican nomination race, but he is casting a long shadow over it. When registered voters who say they will vote in a Republican primary or caucus are given a choice among three declared candidates - Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney - the race for the nomination stands about where it did last month, with Giuliani well in the lead, and about one in five voters wanting someone other than those three. IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS REP NOMINEE? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Now 5/2007 4/2007 Giuliani 42% 36% 47% McCain 26 22 25 Romney 8 15 10 Someone else/none 19 21 13 But when Fred Thompson's name is added to that list, the Tennessean vaults into the top tier -- though Giuliani still leads. Thompson's support appears to come heavily from those looking for "someone else," and some from Giuliani. IF FRED THOMPSON RUNS… IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS REP NOMINEE? (Among Republican Primary Voters) With Thompson Without Thompson Giuliani 34% 42% McCain 21 26 Romney 6 8 Thompson 22 -- Someone else/none 7 19 Though Thompson remains an unknown quantity to most Republican primary voters, awareness of him has increased since April, and the result of that is positive: almost no one familiar with him holds a negative opinion. OPINION OF FRED THOMPSON… (Among Republican Primary Voters) Now 4/2007 Favorable 33% 21% Not favorable 3 0 Undecided/Haven’t heard enough 62 78 Among the other three leading candidates, views on Rudy Giuliani remain strongly positive; views of McCain are still mostly positive; and Romney gets positive marks from those who have an opinion but remains largely unknown nationwide. OPINION OF … (Among Republican Primary Voters) McCain Giuliani Romney Now 5/2007 Now 5/2007 Now 5/2007 Favorable 35% 33% 52% 53% 24% 28% Not favorable 19 31 12 18 11 11 Undecided/Haven’t heard enough 45 35 36 28 64 60 All the contenders tested in this poll are seen as sharing the values of most Republicans, although Giuliani is the most likely of them to be seen as not doing so. Sentiments on this haven't changed in the last month. Fred Thompson is believed to share Republican values, though many do not know enough about him to say. DOES … SHARE THE VALUES OF MOST REPUBLICANS? (Among Republican Primary Voters) McCain Giuliani Romney Thompson Yes 56% 49% 38% 44% No 24 31 15 8 Don't know 20 20 47 48 Some Republican primary voters, around one in four, believe John McCain compromises too much with Democrats. DOES MCCAIN TRY TO COMPROMISE WITH DEMOCRATS…? (Among Republican Primary Voters) Too much 28% About right 41 Not enough 6 THE DEMOCRATS Hillary Clinton maintains her lead in a three-way race over Democrats Barack Obama and John Edwards. Among registered voters who say they plan to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus, 48% would like to see her as the Democratic nominee, while 24% would like to see Obama as the nominee and 11% prefer John Edwards. Those figures have changed little since last month. IF THESE WERE THE CANDIDATES, WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS DEM NOMINEE? (Among Democratic Primary Voters) Now 5/2007 4/2007 Clinton 48% 46% 39% Obama 24 24 24 Edwards 11 14 21 Clinton leads among both men and women who say they will vote in a Democratic primary. She also enjoys stronger support than Obama among liberals, while among moderates they run about evenly. Positive opinions of Clinton, Obama and Edwards have risen in this poll. 67% of Democratic primary voters now have a favorable opinion of Clinton, up from 62% in May. 54% have a favorable view of Obama, up from 44%, and positive views of Edwards are now at 50%, up from 45%. Governor Bill Richardson is not well-known: just 7% have a favorable impression of the Governor of New Mexico, 11% are unfavorable, and 81% are undecided or haven’t heard enough about him yet to have an opinion. OPINIONS OF SOME DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES (Among Democratic Primary Voters) Not Undecided/ Favorable favorable Haven’t heard Hillary Clinton 67% 18 15 Barack Obama 54% 14 32 John Edwards 50% 11 39 Bill Richardson 7% 11 81 Among registered voters overall, opinions of Clinton, Obama and Edwards are not as positive. For Hillary Clinton, favorable views among voters overall just slightly outnumber unfavorable views. OPINIONS OF SOME DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES (Among All Registered Voters) Not Undecided/ Favorable favorable Haven’t heard Hillary Clinton 45% 40 15 Barack Obama 40% 22 37 John Edwards 33% 27 40 Bill Richardson 7% 10 81 Hillary Clinton’s gender won’t be an issue for most voters; majorities of Democratic primary voters, and voters overall, say that most people they know would vote for a woman. However, sizable minorities think it would be an issue for the people they know. Republicans and conservatives are more likely than Democrats and liberals to say people they know would not vote for a woman; of course, in the context of this election year, voting for a woman probably does mean voting for Senator Clinton. WOULD MOST PEOPLE YOU KNOW VOTE FOR A WOMAN? Democratic All voters primary voters Yes 56% 65% No 34 25 And the presence of her husband as Clinton campaigns may help her. 51% of voters overall, and 77% of Democratic primary voters, have a favorable opinion of former President Bill Clinton.
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