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Chapter 2 Agriculture and Forestry

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Chapter 2 Agriculture and Forestry Chapter 2 Agriculture and forestry Co-Chairmen: M.L. Parry (UK), G.V. Mendzhulin (USSR), S. Sinha (India) Lead author: M.L. Parry, UK Section authors: Agriculture M.L. Parry, UK Forestry P.N. Duinker, Canada Associate authors: Direct effects on agriculture J.I.L. Morison, UK Effects on pests J.H. Porter, UK Effects on prices and trade J. Reilly, USA Effects on sea-level L.J. Wright, UK Data Collection L.J. Wright, UK Expert Contributors B. Acock (USA); M. Beran (UK); M. Boko (Benin); D. Bond Canada); W. Degefu (Ethiopia); T. Farago (Hungary); J. Hales (Australia); M. Harwell (USA); J. Hayes (USA); R. Heathcote (Australia); T. Keane (Ireland); L. Kettunen (Finland); J. Kindler (Poland); R. Kintanar (Philippines); D. Linforth (Australia); J. Lomas (Israel); A. Magalhaes (Brazil); G. Mendzhulin (USSR); P. Mosley (New Zealand); J. Muller (East Germany); N. Nicholls (Australia); Nguyen Hu Ninh (Vietnam); L. Ogallo (Kenya); J. Oguntoyinbo (Nigeria); S. Panturat (Thailand); B. Pittock (Australia); P. Ramirez (Costa Rica); J. Reilly (USA); V. Richter (Czechoslovakia); C. Rosenzweig (USA); J. Salinger (New Zealand); A Sastri (India); S. Sinha (India); O. Sirotenko (USSR); B. Smit (Canada); Z. Uchijima (Japan); J. Williams (UK); M. Yoshino (Japan); Jia-cheng Zhang (China) Contents 1 Introduction 2-1 1.1 Objectives and approach 2-1 1.2 Assumptions 2-1 1.2.1 Climatic scenarios 2-1 1.2.2 Assumptions concerning technology and management 2-1 2 Potential impacts on agriculture and land use 2-1 2.1 Introduction 2-1 2.2 Critical types of climatic change 2-2 2.2.1 Climatic extremes 2-2 2.2.2 Warming in high latitudes 2-2 2.2.3 Poleward advance of monsoon rainfall 2-2 2.2.4 Reduced soil water availability 2-2 2.3 Present-day vulnerability to climate 2-3 2.4 Regions of risk 2-3 2.5 Critical vulnerabilities in food trade 2-3 2.6 Potential effects on agriculture and land use 2-4 2.6.1 Types of effect 2-4 2.6.2 'Direct' effects of elevated C02 and other greenhouse gases .... 2-4 2.6.3 Effects of changes in climate 2-7 2.7 Likely adjustments in agriculture 2-17 2.7.1 Introduction 2-17 2.7.2 Changes in land use 2-17 2.7.3 Changes in management 2-18 2.7.4 Changes in policies of agricultural support 2-20 2.8 Effects of changes in sea-level 2-20 2.8.1 Scenarios 2-20 2.8.2 Vulnerability 2-20 2.8.3 Vulnerable regions 2-20 2.8.4 Direct impacts on agriculture 2-21 2.8.5 Indirect impacts on agriculture 2-21 3 Potential impacts on managed forests and the forest sector 2-22 3.1 Introduction 2-22 3.2 Managed and unmanaged forests 2-22 3.3 World forest sector and managed forests 2-23 3.3.1 World forest sector 2-23 3.3.2 Managed forests 2-23 3.4 Potential biophysical responses of forests to climate change 2-23 3.4.1 Forest protection 2-23 3.4.2 Shifts in climatic zones affecting forest ecosystems 2-25 3.4.3 Forest production and renewal 2-26 3.5 Role of forest management in potential forest responses to climatic changes 2-27 3.5.1 Managed forests 2-27 3.5.2 Agroforestry - managed forests with agriculture 2-27 3.5.3 Urban forests 2-28 3.5.4 Summary assessment of forest sensitivity to projected climatic changes 2-28 3.6 Socioeconomic implications of climatic changes on forests and the forest sector 2-30 2-ii 4 Summary and conclusions 2-32 4.1 Agriculture 2-32 4.1.1 Effects on food security 2-32 4.1.2 Magnitudes of possible dislocation 2-32 4.1.3 The most vulnerable regions and sectors 2-33 4.1.4 The effect of altered climatic extremes 2-33 4.1.5 Effects on crop growth potential, land degradation, pests and diseases 2-33 4.1.6 Regional impacts 2-33 4.1.7 Rates of adaptability 2-34 4.1.8 Future tasks 2-34 4.2 Forestry - future deliberations 2-35 Tables Table 2.1 Forest land in area in 1980. Hectare and percaput data from Peck (1984) 2-24 Table 2.2 Summary of forest resources 2-25 Table 2.3 Yields from hybrid plantation species 2-28 Table 2.4 Performance of 15 species at Kaunamano, Ka'u, Hawaii Island, evaluated after 23 months (Schubert adn Whiteshell, 1989) 2-29 Table 2.5a Summary of forest resources and forest management species (1986) 2-31 Table 2.5b Roundwood production, imports, exports and their value 2-32 Figure Figure 2.1: Sensitivity of world agricultural prices to yield changes 2-37 References 2-38 2-iii Agriculture and forestry 1 Introduction 'moving target' is difficult to describe with accuracy, 1.1 Objectives and approach primarily because of the relatively long time scales involved (eg 50-100 years). Changes in technology The purpose of this chapter is fourfold: first, to and management may, over that length of time, alter identify those systems, sectors and regions of agricul• some aspects of agriculture and commercial forestry ture and forestry that are most sensitive to anticipat• beyond recognition. ed changes of climate;1 second, to summarise the present knowledge about the potential socioecono• A common approach to this problem is, first, to mic impact of changes of climate on world agricul• estimate impacts as they might occur in the future, ture and forestry; third, to consider the adjustments assuming technology and management as it is now; in agriculture and forestry that are most likely to for example, assuming the extent of irrigation and occur (even if no policy responses were implement• fertiliser application to be as at present. Subsequent ed);2 finally, to establish research priorities for assessments then allow for possible developments in future assessments of impact. technology and management, identifying those adjustments necessary either to obviate major This chapter gathers together many different types negative effects or to exploit positive ones. This of information. It is a synthesis of all available distinction between 'impact experiments' and 'adjust• published material, as well as unpublished govern• ment experiments' has been made in a number of ment and non-government reports. It also draws on previous impact assessments (see Parry and Carter, summaries of expert judgment concerning impacts in 1988). many regions that resulted from contact made with more than 100 scientists in 50 different countries. In the present report, and unless otherwise stated, data on estimated impacts relate to changes in 1.2 Assumptions productive potential against a baseline of present-day base technology and management. However, likely 1.2.1 Climatic scenarios (actual) effects on production must be measured against a realistic future reference base. In order to The scenarios used in the estimates of global warm• characterise this baseline certain assumptions must ing effects on agriculture and forestry were based on be made about changes in food and timber demand both General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations (on the basis of changes in population and per at 2 x C0 climate and palaeoclimatic reconstruc• 2 capita income), in use of inputs (particularly amount tions. The GCM scenarios are described in detail in of fertiliser), in extent of the farmed and forested Working Group I Report. The analog scenarios area and in many other aspects of agriculture and used in Soviet studies at mid-latitude Northern forestry which are likely to alter in the future even Hemisphere agriculture impacts are based on if climate did not change. These assumptions are climate reconstructions of three past warm epochs as consistent with UN and World Bank projections. discussed in Chapter 1. Where reference is made to an equivalent doubling 2 Potential impacts on agriculture of atmospheric C02, this is taken to be 460 ppm in and land use about the year 2030 (which is the current best estimate, Working Group I). This represents a ca 2.1 Introduction 60% increase over pre-industrial levels because C0 2 Owing to the many remaining uncertainties about comprises about 60% of estimated greenhouse gas possible future changes of climate (particularly (GHG) forcing. changes in regional precipitation patterns and the rate of climate change over time) no forecast can be 1.2.2 Assumptions concerning technology and management 1 Note impacts on fisheries are considered in Chapter 6 of Since the effects of changes in climate will be felt IPCC Working Group II progressively over time, though not necessarily in 2 Note technical adjustments which can reasonably be pres• linear increments, it is necessary to assess these umed to occur as a result of changes of climate are con• against an exposure unit that is itself changing sidered in this report Policy responses at the national and (irrespective of climate change). The nature of this international level are evaluated in the report of the IPCC Working Group 2-1 made in this report concerning any specific impact 2.2.3 Poleward advance of monsoon on agriculture. It is possible, however, to identify rainfall what types of impacts might occur under a number of possible changes of climate and thus, by infer• In a warmer world the intertropical convergence ence, what types of climate change could constitute zones (ITCZs) would be likely to advance further a significant risk or benefit for agriculture. Four poleward as a result of an enhanced ocean-continent approaches can be adopted to achieve this end: (i) pressure gradient (itself the result of more warming the identification a prion of the types of climate of the land surface in the pre-monsoon season).
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