Climate Change and Agricultural Land Use in Sweden

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Climate Change and Agricultural Land Use in Sweden Climate change and agricultural land use in Sweden A literature review Henrik Eckersten, Stig Karlsson and Bengt Torssell Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) Department of Crop Production Ecology (VPE) Uppsala 2008 Climate change and agricultural land use in Sweden: A literature review Eckersten, H., Karlsson, S. & Torssell, B Report from the Department of Crop Production Ecology (VPE) • No. 7 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) Uppsala 2008 ISSN 1653-5375 ISBN 978-91-85911-57-8 Editor: Birgitta Båth Preface The purpose of this literature review is to create a base of information to identify gaps of knowledge in the assessment of the effects of climate change on agriculture in Sweden, and related effects of agricultural adaptation and mitigation measures. The review is a part of a project (FANAN, Fogelfors et al. 2008) at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences aiming at making a strategic analysis of future research needs for agriculture in Sweden, and should help in answering the following questions: What are the expected impacts of climate change on agricultural production and its effects on environment, which are the suggested methods for mitigation and adaptation, and what is the scientific base on which these assessments stands? The work has been done in the following way: Literature has basically been searched for on the “Web of Science”. The review has focused on scientific literature, although the literature has also been searched on the whole “Web”, and several references have been found elsewhere in a non-systematic way. The limited number of researchers involved and time available for the study allowed only a few topics to be thoroughly examined. References within many topics are though cited, but the list is incomplete. Thus the reference list should not be regarded to be complete. Mainly abstracts have been read and analysed for results, conclusions and methods. The text has basically the character of citations using expressions close to those of the authors of the articles, although our own analyses were now and then unavoidable. All evaluations by us, the authors of this report, are intended to be concentrated to the summary. The citations are structured in relation to the questions they give answers to. The reader is recommended to use the questions to find the information of her/his interest. The study was financed by the Faculty of Natural Resources and Agricultural Science at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences and the authors would like to thank colleagues at the Departments for Crop Production Ecology, Economy, Animal Nutrition and Management, and Soil and Environment for contributions and kind help. Förord Syftet med denna litteraturstudie är att samla information till underlag för att identifiera kunskapsluckor vid bedömningar av klimatförändringars effekter på svenskt jordbruk och åtgärder för att anpassa jordbruket och lindra dess effekter på klimatet. Studien är en del av ett projekt (FANAN, Fogelfors m fl 2008) vid Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU) med syfte att göra en strategisk analys av framtida forskningsbehov för svenskt jordbruk för att svara på följande frågor: Vilka är de förväntade effekterna av klimatförändringar på jordbruksproduktion och där tillhörande effekter på miljön, vilka är metoderna för att anpassa jordbruket till dessa förändringar och mildra dess effekter, och på vilken vetenskaplig grund baserar sig dessa framtidsbedömningar? Studien är utförd på följande sätt: Litteratursökning har främst skett på ”Web of Science”, och fokuserat främst på vetenskaplig litteratur. Men litteratursökning har också utförts på hela ”Nätet”, och ett antal referenser har hämtats från ej väldefinierade vetenskapliga källor på ett icke systematiskt sätt. Beroende på den begränsade arbetsinsatsen har endast ett färre antal ämnesområden kunnat behandlas utförligt, även om referenser från ett större antal ämnesområden citerats. Av det skälet gör referenslistan inte anspråk på att vara komplett. I de allra flesta fallen är det främst abstrakt som lästs och analyserats vad avser resultat, slutsatser och metoder. Citering av referenser har gjorts i form av referat där författarnas egna uttryck har använts i möjligaste mån. Vissa tolkningar har dock varit nödvändiga. Sammanfattningen är dock vår egen analys av innehållet i referenserna. Referenserna har strukturerats i relation till de frågor som studierna besvarar. Läsaren rekommenderas att utnyttja de uppställda frågorna för att styra uppmärksamheten till sitt eget intresse. Studien har finansierats av Fakulteten för naturresurser och lantbruksvetenskap vid Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet och författarna vill tacka kolleger vid institutionerna för växtproduktionsekologi, ekologi, ekonomi, husdjurens utfodring och vård samt mark och miljö för bidrag och hjälpsamhet. Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 7 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 8 S1. Climate change scenarios .............................................................................................................. 8 S2. Climate and agricultural patterns .................................................................................................. 9 S3. Climate impacts on agriculture ................................................................................................... 12 S4. Climate change impact assessments on agriculture .................................................................... 16 S5. Adaptation and mitigation of agriculture to climate change ....................................................... 21 S6. Climate change impacts in relation to natural resources and globalisation ................................ 23 1. Climate change scenarios .................................................................................................................. 25 1. Driving forces of agriculture ......................................................................................................... 25 1. Methods ......................................................................................................................................... 25 1. Scenarios, global ........................................................................................................................... 26 1. Scenarios, Nordic .......................................................................................................................... 29 1. Uncertainties ................................................................................................................................. 29 1. Physical parameters....................................................................................................................... 32 1. Spatial patterns .............................................................................................................................. 32 2. Climate and agricultural patterns ...................................................................................................... 34 2. Climate patterns ............................................................................................................................ 34 2. Agricultural patterns ..................................................................................................................... 34 2. Agricultural and climate patterns .................................................................................................. 36 2. Changes over time ......................................................................................................................... 39 2. Current trends in agriculture ......................................................................................................... 47 3. Climate impacts on agriculture .......................................................................................................... 48 3. Soil ................................................................................................................................................ 48 3. Crop productivity .......................................................................................................................... 51 3. Grassland ....................................................................................................................................... 56 3. Crop quality .................................................................................................................................. 60 3. Weeds ............................................................................................................................................ 61 3. Pests .............................................................................................................................................. 62 3. Animal husbandry ......................................................................................................................... 63 3. Biodiversity ................................................................................................................................... 64 3. Environment .................................................................................................................................. 65 3. Land use .......................................................................................................................................
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