Niger in 2016

President Mahamadou Issoufou and his ruling ‘Parti Nigérien pour la Démocratie et le Socialisme’ (PNDS) consolidated their grip on power, though not without pushing to absurd levels the unortho- dox measures by which they hoped to strengthen their position. Opposition leader Hama Amadou of the ‘Mouvement Démocratique Nigérien’ (Moden-Lumana), who had been arrested in 2015 for al- leged involvement in a baby-trafficking scandal, remained in detention. He was allowed to contest the 2016 presidential elections from his cell. Issoufou emerged victorious, though not without an unex- pected run-off. The parliamentary polls allowed the PNDS to boost its position in the National Assembly. Although the elections took place in an atmosphere of calm, they were marred by authoritarian interventions, including the arrest of several members of the opposition. The ‘Mouvement National pour la Société de Développement’ (MNSD) of Seini Oumarou had to cede its leadership of the opposition to Amadou’s Moden, which ended ahead of the MNSD in the Assembly. In August, the MNSD joined the presidential majority, which did not bode well for the possibility of political alternation in the future. National security was tested by frequent attacks by Boko Haram fighters in the south-east and raids by insurgents based in Mali. While the humanitarian situation in the south-east worsened, the army managed to strike back and engage in counter-insurgency operations together with forces from Chad, Nigeria and Cameroon. Overall, the country held its own, despite being sandwiched be- tween security challenges that caused some serious losses. Rains were deficient, leading to a cereal deficit that would mean earlier shortfalls in 2017. Economic performance was affected by depressed oil and uranium prices.

Domestic Politics

Presidential elections were scheduled for 21 February, together with legislative polls, and a presidential run-off would take place, if nec- essary, on 20 March. All the tycoons on Niger’s political scene en- tered the fray, joined by various lesser presidential hopefuls. These last included Mahamane Ousmane, who was strong in the eastern city of Zinder but was handicapped by a new party vehicle, and Ibrahim Yacouba, an adviser to President Issoufou, who had been expelled from the PNDS the previous year over an internal dispute. Seini Oumarou and Hama Amadou continued to be the president’s main rivals. Oumarou, leading Niger’s second party and with his fief in western Tillabéri, hoped to profit from the incarceration of Amadou, who was also from the west (Issoufou being from the central Tahoua region). However, while Amadou’s detention was expected to hinder his visibility to voters, his party exploited it by playing the martyrdom card. Faced with this splintered field, the opposition parties decided to rally behind a single candidate if elections went to a run-off. The effect of this deal, referred to as the ‘Coalition pour l’alternance 2016’ (Copa 2016), was to allow Issoufou a lead in the first round. The ruling party hoped to transform its incumbency into a ‘knock-out’ (by taking more than 50% of the votes in the first round), making a second round unnecessary. Issoufou’s campaign arguments made much of the limited gains in agriculture and infrastructural devel- opment. Critics pointed out, not without reason, that the develop- ment programme had suffered from increases in defence spending and that the government had used threats to national security as an excuse to harass civil society activists and the opposition. These accusations centred round Hama Amadou’s treatment. While the facts of his involvement in the baby-trafficking affair remained unclear, the handling of the case had electoral consequenc- es if not political connotations. Detained in Filingué, 180 km north of the capital Niamey, Amadou had been refused bail in December 2015. This decision was confirmed on appeal on 11 January. A few