AKE Insights NIGER SECURITY OUTLOOK KEY POINTS Niger's 27 December 2020 election has the potential to pave the way for an historic transition. However, incumbent President Mahamadou Issoufou’s likely successor, Mohamed Bazoum, inherits a sharply deteriorated security situation which threatens the fragile stabilisation achieved during Issoufou’s presidency. Should the next president fail to quell intensifying insurgency by Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), Niger faces the following risks: • Further territorial expansion and more frequent attacks by ISGS in western Niger • Diminished capacity to combat militant activity in the south-east • Political instability as discontent among minority groups grows About us AKE has over 20 years of experience working with the financial sector, providing clients with political and economic risk consultancy. Our experienced team provides tailored analysis and strategic forecasting, allowing our clients to better assess risks in challenging environments. Contact us: +44 (0)20 3816 9970 /
[email protected] Or visit: www.akegroup.com / @akegroup AKE SPECIAL REPORT – NIGER SECURITY Header OVERVIEW On 2 January Niger’s electoral commission declared ruling party candidate Mohamed Bazoum the winner of the 27 December 2020 first round of presidential elections with just over 39 per cent of the vote. The result means that Bazoum will face runner-up Mahamane Ousmane, who won 17 per cent, in a run-off on 20 February. Although voting was calm, the election comes amid a surge in attacks by suspected Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) militants in which nearly 150 people have been killed since early December. The election marks a historic moment for Niger as incumbent President Mahamadou Issoufou’s decision to stand down after two terms paves the way for the country’s first peaceful power transition.