11 John Quiggin Expert Reportpdf

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refereed journal articles, focusing primarily on risk analysis and environmental economics, among over 1000 academic and popular publications. My current ARC Federation Fellowship deals with the impact of Climate Change on the Murray-Darling Basin. My curriculum vitae is provided as Attachment 1.

2. Materials used in the preparation of this report include reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Stern Report (UK) and Garnaut Review, along with my own earlier research on the costs of climate change and the analysis of climate mitigation policy. For findings on the negative net value of coal-fired power, I have drawn on the work of Muller, N. Mendelsohn, R. and Nordhaus, W. (2011) Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the United States Economy, American Economic Review, 101(5): 1649–75 (Attachment 3).

Part I: Impacts of Climate Change

3. Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases have changed the global climate and will continue to do so in the future.

4. Research on the likely global impacts of climate change is summarised in the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II, on Impacts and Adaptation. The primary areas of concern are:

• Natural ecosystems • Effects on agriculture, forestry and fisheries • Effects of sea level rise • Health effects • Water supply • Risk of sudden and catastrophic change

5. The magnitude of these effects depends critically on the rate at which climate change takes place and the magnitude of the increase at the point when climate ultimately stabilises at a new equilibrium. Damages are non-linear and convex (Attachment 4). That is, the costs associated with 4oC of warming will be more than twice as great as the costs associated with 2oC of warming (Attachment 4). The costs of 6oC or 8oC of warming over the next century are hard to project, but would certainly be catastrophic.

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6. Drawing on IPCC and other evidence, I will summarise the nature of the projected impacts, focusing on economic effects, and the way in which these effects depend on the rate of climate change.

Natural ecosystems

7. The most severe effects of climate change will be those on natural ecosystems. If efforts to limit temperature change to 2oC are unsuccessful, and particularly if the increase in temperature exceeds 4oC, large-scale species extinction is likely. The IPCC (2007b, p242) states:

As global temperature exceeds 4oC above pre-industrial levels, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% species assessed) around the globe.

8. Economic valuation of the effects of climate change on natural ecosystems is difficult and has not been undertaken in a systematic fashion. For this reason, this topic will not be addressed at the global level.

Effects on agriculture, forestry and fisheries

9. Quiggin (2008) summarises a range of agricultural effects of climate change, and discusses possible adaptation. Climate change may be expected to have a range of effects on crop yields, and on the productivity of forest and pasture species (IPCC 1995, 1999, 2001, 2007b). Some effects, such as increased evapotranspiration will generally be negative, while others, such as CO2 fertilisation will generally be positive. In general, it appears that for modest increases in temperature (up to 1oC) beneficial effects will predominate. For warming of between 1oC and 2oC a mixture of harmful and beneficial effects will be observed. For warming of more than 2oC, the marginal effects of additional warming are unambiguously negative (Quiggin 2008).

10. Projections at the regional level remain problematic. However, the analysis in the Garnaut report suggested that impacts on south-eastern Australia, including NSW will be negative, and potentially severe.

Effects of sea level rise

11. Understanding of the likely sea level rise associated with climate change is still developing. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report confined attention to projections of sea level rise due to thermal expansion. However, more recent research suggests that the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica is proceeding more rapidly than was

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previously expected, and is likely to contribute to substantial sea level rise over the 21st century. Recent projections suggest that sea levels could rise by 1.4 metres by 2100, with irreversible further increases in sea levels thereafter (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, 2009).

12. The economic costs of sea level rise involve a complex interaction between patterns of coastal development, climate change, and a variety of adaptive responses. Some policy approaches, such as restrictions on development in vulnerable areas would reduce the costs of natural disasters such as floods and storm surges, but would imply substantial economic costs in terms of foregone opportunities.

Health effects

13. The most important direct health effects of climate change relate to a likely increase in deaths from heat stroke and the prevalence of tropical diseases. These must be offset against reductions in deaths and morbidity from cold. However, most studies suggest a net negative impact, particularly if climate change is rapid (IPCC 2007, Working Group II, p47).

14. Valuation of the adverse health effects of uncontrolled climate change remains difficult and controversial, but these effects are clearly likely to be substantial.

15. Adverse health effects will also arise indirectly, through the effects of sea level rise, tropical storms, reduced access to water and higher food costs.

Water supply

16. Water, derived from natural precipitation, from irrigation or from groundwater, is a crucial input to agricultural production. IPCC (2007b, p175) concludes, with high confidence, that the negative effects of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh its benefits. This negative finding arises from a number of features of projected climate change.

17. First, climate change is likely to exacerbate the spatial variation of precipitation, with average precipitation increasing in high rainfall areas such as the wet tropics, and decreasing in most arid and semi-arid areas (Milly, Dunne and Vecchia 2005).

18. Second, climate change is likely to increase the variability and uncertainty of precipitation (Trenberth et al. 2003). The frequency and geographical extent of severe droughts are likely to increase by multiples ranging from two to ten, depending on the

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measure (Burke, Brown, and Nikolaos 2006) and high intensity rainfall events are likely to become more prevalent (IPCC 2007a).

19. Third, higher temperatures will lead to higher rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration, and therefore to increased demand for water for given levels of crop production (Döll 2002). Water stress (the ratio of irrigation withdrawals to renewable water resources) is likely to increase in many parts of the world. Water stress may be reduced in some areas, but the benefits of increased precipitation will be offset by the fact that the increases in runoff generally occur during high flow (wet) seasons, and may not alleviate dry season problems if this extra water is not stored (Arnell 2004).

20. Although attribution of specific events to climate change remains problematic, Australian experience over the last decade, in which a severe drought has been followed by extreme flooding events, is consistent with the general projections described above.

Catastrophic risks

21. Research has identified a range of catastrophic risks, in which climate change produces positive feedback effects leading to rapid and severe changes in climate patterns which may result in the collapse of agricultural systems, large-scale loss of life, and substantial and permanent reductions in human welfare. These catastrophic possibilities include the release of methane currently trapped in tundras or oceanic hydrates, and the shutdown of thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic (IPCC 2007b, pp 793-4). At this stage, the probability of these events remains low. Nevertheless, since the likely damage is catastrophic, the risk associated with these events represents a substantial portion of estimates of the mean expected damage associated with uncontrolled climate change (Weitzman 2007).

Aggregate evaluations

22. The most recent systematic evaluation of the economic costs of climate change is that undertaken by Stern (2007). Stern’s estimates are presented in terms of a flow present value, that is, the permanent proportional reduction in income that would be equivalent, in terms of economic welfare, to the expected damage from uncontrolled climate change. This method of presentation is useful since it allows for direct comparison with the costs of mitigation measures.

23. Stern offers a range of estimates of the cost of warming equivalent to a reduction of between 5 and 20 per cent in annual global income. That is equivalent to annual cost for

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Australia of between $60 billion and $240 billion, rising in line with national income at a real rate of around 4 per cent per year.

24. Stern’s estimates of economic damage to agricultural systems, and his evaluation of catastrophic risks appear sound, given available knowledge. However, in adopting components of earlier work by Nordhaus and others, Stern used unduly conservative estimates of the likely cost of biodiversity loss and ecosystem damage. Although business as usual emissions are likely to lead to the extinction of up to one third of all animal and plant species, Nordhaus assumed the cost of this extinction could be valued at less than one per cent of total income, and Stern’s modelling incorporated this assumption. Neumayer (2007) describes the failure to tackle the loss of biodiversity as a ‘missed opportunity’ in the Stern Review.

Economic impacts on New South Wales and Australia due to climate change

25. As is shown by the Garnaut Review, New South Wales is particularly vulnerable to climate change in a number of respects:

• Much of the population lives in coastal areas, already subject to significant risk from storms and flooding events • Agriculture is a major part of the economy and agricultural productivity is already constrained by inadequate or irregular rainfall in many locations, as well as high temperatures and evaporation rates • Rainfall in the Murray Basin is likely to decline as a result of climate change

26. Regional projections of the impacts of climate change remain problematic. For this reason, monetary estimates of damage costs are not, in general, available at the level of individual states.

Part II Conceptual framework for evaluation

27. The costs and benefits of a project such as the Warkworth mine expansion will be widely distributed, both geographically and over time. It is necessary to adopt a consistent conceptual framework in order to evaluate these disparate costs and benefits. The main task of benefit cost analysis is to provide such a framework.

28. In considering how to evaluate the costs and benefits of the project, the Director General's Requirements states that these costs and benefits should be evaluated for “the

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NSW community”. This creates conceptual problems because many of the most important costs and benefits accrue at a national or global level.

29. Benefits of the project that accrue wholly or primarily outside NSW include: (a) Returns to investors in the project, who may be located anywhere in the world (b) Tax payments to the Commonwealth (c) Effects on the Australian labour market arising from increased labour demand.

30. Costs of the project that accrue wholly or primarily outside NSW include: (a) Effects of CO2 emissions, regardless of whether these arise during the process of extraction or when the coal produced by the project is burned (b) Negative general equilibrium effects on other industries arising from changes in the exchange rate.

31. Benefits and costs that accrue inside NSW include: (a) Local environmental effects, including the effects of offsets (b) Tax payments to the NSW Government (c) Income increases for input suppliers, including employees.

32. Although the input-output analysis submitted by proponents suggests local employment gains (Gillespie Economics, p3), this is incorrect given low levels of unemployment. Most jobs created by the project will be filled either by migration of workers with appropriate skills into the region or by diversion of workers already employed in other firms.

33. A correct computable general equilibrium analysis of employment effects would show smaller gains and these would take the form of a (small) national increase in wages in relevant occupations. That is, the labour market effects of the project will fall primarily outside the local region, and to a large extent outside NSW.

34. In considering the time scale of effects, there are a number of defensible approaches, and the choice between them depends on considerations of tractability (that is, whether the resulting analysis is simple and robust) and the purpose to which the analysis is to be put. In evaluating the commercial viability of the project, the most appropriate approach is to use a private-sector Weighted Average Cost of Capital to evaluate cash flows. In an evaluation of social benefits and costs, it is generally preferable to use the real rate of interest on government bonds as the basis for evaluation.

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35. In the present case, the approach based on the bond rate is particularly appealing, because the cost of CO2 emissions may be represented by a carbon price, applicable at the time the emissions are generated. Under standard pricing principles for resource stocks, which are applicable in this case, the optimal carbon price will rise over time at a rate equal to the relevant real discount rate, in this case the government bond rate. As a result, flows of costs and benefits can be captured as they arise over the life of the mine. The future costs of CO2 emissions are represented by the current carbon price.

Part III Social cost of CO2 emissions from Warkworth mine expansion

36. The cumulative emissions of CO2 associated with burning coal from the Warkworth mine expansion will be around 375 million tonnes. This estimate is derived on the basis that:

(a) the expansion will produce approximately 150 million tonnes of product coal, calculated as 3 million tons a year from 2012 to 2021 and 12 million tonnes a year from 2021 to 2031 (based on Gillespie Economics pp5-6)

(b) burning one tonne of carbon generates about 3.5 tonnes of CO2 (atomic weight of carbon is 12, molecular weight of CO2 is 44)

37. As noted by Gillespie Economics, there are a wide range of estimates of the social cost of CO2 emissions, with plausible estimates ranging from $US15/tonne to $US85/tonne. The price estimates used by Gillespie Economics in 2009 were based on conjectures about likely carbon prices, which can now be updated. The simplest choice is to begin with the current Australian carbon price of $A23/tonne. As explained in Section II above, it may then be assumed that emissions prices rise in line with the discount rate, so that the present value of emissions remains constant throughout the life of the mine.

38. Hence, the estimated cost of emissions from burning coal produced at the mine, evaluated at 2012 present values, is approximately $23 x 375 million = $8.6 billion.

39. This external cost greatly exceeds not only the estimated social return from the expansion, but the total value of the coal produced, estimated by Gillespie Economics p12 at $4.8 billion This finding is consistent with recent economic studies, such as that of Muller, Mendelsohn and Nordhaus (2011) concluding that the net social value of

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additional coal production is negative. The negative value is robust to the adoption of substantially lower estimates of the cost of CO2 emissions, such as those of Tol, referred to by the proponent,( Gillespie Economics pp37-38) even though Tol’s work is well outside the mainstream of economic analysis.

Part IV Review of the Warkworth assessment

40. The proponent’s assessment of the Warkworth project is presented as an examination of costs and benefits to the NSW community. This approach is needed to justify both modelling choices adopted in the analysis, such as the adoption of an input-output rather than a general equilibrium framework, and in the exclusion from consideration of the adverse effects of burning coal produced by the project.

41. However, the stated focus on NSW is inconsistent with the inclusion of benefits flowing to the Commonwealth Government and to shareholders in the project, most of whom will be located outside NSW.

42. Strict adherence to a requirement to focus on benefits and costs to the NSW community would exclude most benefits other than payments to NSW Government and environmental benefits from offsets. Most externality costs, with exception of CO2 emissions costs would be included. Based on the proponent’s BCA, the result would be a negative net benefit, that is, a social loss.

43. That is, excluding costs and benefits accruing primarily outside NSW, the evaluation would compare the environmental impacts (other than greenhouse gas emissions), estimated by the proponents at $495 million, with the economic value of offsets, estimated by the proponents at $317 million, for a total net loss of $178 million, based on proponent estimates.

Preferred approach

44. In the context of a global economy and environment, a literal attempt to isolate impacts of projects to particular local jurisdictions may be inappropriate. It appears preferable to take all costs and benefits into account, wherever they accrue. If this approach were adopted consistently in all jurisdictions, the result would be to benefit residents of all jurisdictions, including NSW.

45. In the present case, the adoption of a global approach would imply negative net benefits (net social losses) for the proposed expansion. It follows that the analysis presented by the proponent rests on the presumption that emissions from the burning of coal produced

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by the project will not be priced in line with their costs. In a global analysis, the full cost would be taken into account.

46. Hence, a global analysis would take into account the full cost of greenhouse gas emissions, evaluated above at $8.6 billion. This would produce a negative net benefit of the order of $7.5 billion.

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References

Arnell, N. (2004), ‘Climate change and global water resources: Sres emissions and socio-economic scenarios’, Global Environmental Change, 14(1), 31–52. Burke, E., Brown, S. and Nikolaos, C. (2006), ‘Modeling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the twenty-first century with the hadley centre climate model’, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 7(5), 1113–25. Döll, P. (2002), ‘Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: A global perspective’, Climatic Change, 54(3), 269–93. Garnaut, R. (2008) The Garnaut Climate Change Review, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Gillespie Economics (2009), ‘Proposed Warkworth Extension Benefit Cost Analysis’, Report Prepared for Warkworth Mining Limited, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1995), ‘IPCC Second Assessment Report: Climate Change.’, IPCC, Geneva. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1996), ‘Second Assessment R II, Chapter 23, Agricultural Options for Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Lead Authors: V. Cole, C. Cerri, K. Minami, A. Mosier, N. Rosenberg, D. Sauerbeck, J. Dumanski, J. Duxbury, J. Freney, R. Gupta, O. Heinemeyer, T. Kolchugina, J. Lee, K. Paustian, D. Powlson, N. Sampson, H. Tiessen, M. van Noordwijk, and Q. Zhao).’, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1999), ‘IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change.’, IPCC, Geneva. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001), ‘Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis’, IPCC, Geneva. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), ‘IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007’, IPCC, Geneva. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), ‘Working Group I Report (WGI): Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis’, IPCC, Geneva. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), ‘Working Group II Report (WGII): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, IPCC, Geneva. Milly, P.C., Dunne, K.A. and Vecchia, A.V. (2005), ‘Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate’, Nature, 438(7066), 347–50. Muller, N.Z., Mendelsohn, R. and Nordhaus, W. (2011), ‘Environmental accounting for pollution in the united states economy’, American Economic Review, 101(5), 1649-75. Neumayer, E. (2007), ‘A missed opportunity: The stern review on climate change fails to tackle the issue of non-substitutable loss of natural capital’, Global Environmental Change, 17(3-4), 297-301. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Counting the cost of climate change at an agricultural level’, CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources, 2(092), 1–9. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (2009), ‘Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment’, Cambridge UK, Trenberth, K.E., Aiguo, D.M., Rasmussen, R.B. and Parsons, D. (2003), ‘The changing character of precipitation’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84(9), 1205–17.

CURRICULUM VITAE —JOHN CHARLES QUIGGIN

DATE OF BIRTH : 29 March 1956 PLACE OF BIRTH : Adelaide, South Australia NATIONALITY : Australian EMPLOYMENT RECORD

1978–1983 Research Economist, Bureau of Agricultural Economics. 1984–1985 Research Fellow, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University. 1986 Chief Research Economist, Bureau of Agricultural Economics. 1987–88 Lecturer/Senior Lecturer, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, University of Sydney. 1989 Visiting Fellow, Centre for International Economics, Canberra. 1989–1990 Associate Professor, Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park. 1991–92 Fellow, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. 1993–1994 Senior Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Australian National University. 1995 Professor, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Australian National University 1996–7 Professor of Economics, James Cook University.

1998–9 Australian Research Council Senior Fellow, James Cook University. 2000- 2002 Australian Research Council Senior Fellow, Australian National University. 2003 Australian Research Council Professorial Fellow, University of Queensland 2003- Australian Research Council Federation Fellow, University of Queensland (reappointed in 2007)

OTHER ACTIVITIES

1992_–5 Opinion columnist, Freelance 1996– Opinion columnist, Australian Financial Review 1999– Board member, Queensland Competition Aust 2000 Inaugural Don Dunstan Visiting Professor, University of Adelaide 2000–02 Adjunct Professor, Queensland University of Technology 2003-6 Adjunct Professor, Australian National University

DEGREES

BA (1st Class Honours in Mathematics) , Australian National University, 1978. BEc (1st Class Honours in Economics), Australian National University, 1980. MEc (coursework and thesis), Australian National University, 1984. PhD, University of New England, 1988.

PRIZES AND AWARDS 2011 Hinkley Visiting Professorship, Johns Hopkins University 2010 SCOR/IDEI Award for the best paper of the year published in the GRIR. 2010 EAAE Quality of Research Discovery Award 2010 President-Elect, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 2010 Fellow, Econometric Society 2007 Federation Fellow, Australian Research Council 2004. Citation Laureate, Thompson ISI 2004, Distinguished Fellow, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 2003 Fellow, American Agricultural Economics Association 2003 Federation Fellow, Australian Research Council 2002 Fellow, Australian Institute of Company Directors 2001 Editors Prize, best article published in Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2000 Institute of Public Administration, Australia, Sam Richardson Prize, Best Journal Article 1997 Institute of Public Administration Australia, Sam Richardson Prize, Best Journal Article 1997 American Agricultural Economics Association, Quality of Research Discovery Prize (joint with Robert G. Chambers) 1996 Fellow, Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia 1993 Australian Social Science Academy Medal (awarded annually to a younger researcher in the social sciences) 1988 Drummond Prize, (best Ph. D. thesis, Economics, UNE) 1981 Editors Prize, best article published in Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1980 University Medal, ANU

RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

Books

1. Quiggin, J. (1993) Generalized Expected Utility Theory:The Rank-Dependent Expected Utility model, Kluwer-Nijhoff, Amsterdam. 2. Langmore, J. and Quiggin, J. (1994), Work for All: Full Employment in the Nineties, Melbourne University Press, Carlton, Victoria. 3. Quiggin, J. (1996), Great Expectations: Microeconomic Reform and Australia, Allen and Unwin, St. Leonards, NSW. 4. Quiggin, J. (1998), Taxing Times: A Guide to the Tax Debate in Australia, University of New South Wales Press, Sydney. 5. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (2000), Uncertainty, Production, Choice and Agency: The State-Contingent Approach_, Cambridge University Press, New York. 6. Quiggin, J. (2010), Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk Among Us, Princeton University Press, Princeton.

Edited Volumes

7. Fisher B.S. and Quiggin, J. (eds) (1988), The Australian Grain Storage, Handling and Transport Industries: An Economic Analysis, Research Report No. 13 Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sydney. 8. van Wel, C. and Quiggin, J. (eds) (1998), Contemporary Issues in Australian Economics: Essays in Honour of Professor Percy Harris, Central Queensland University Press , Rockhampton. 9. Marston, G., Moss, J. and Quiggin, J. (eds) (2010) Risk, Welfare and Work, Melbourne University Press, Melbourne. 10. Quiggin, J., Chambers, S. and Mallawaarachchi, T. (Eds.) (2011) Water Policy Reform: Lessons in Sustainability from the Murray Darling Basin Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.

Articles in refereed journals

11. Quiggin, J. and Anderson, J. (1979), ‘Stabilisation and risk reduction in Australian agriculture’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 23(3), 191– 206. 12. Quiggin, J. (1980), ‘A note on economies of scale, commodity disaggregation and the cost of protection’, Australian Economic Papers 19, 375–9. 13. Quiggin, J. and Anderson, J. (1981), ‘Price bands and buffer funds’, Economic Record 57(156), 67–73. 14. Quiggin, J. (1981), ‘Risk perception and risk aversion among Australian farmers’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 25(2), 160–9. 15. Robinson, C., McMahon, P. and Quiggin, J. (1982), ‘Labour supply and off-farm work by farm operators: theory and estimation’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 26(1), 23–38. 16. Vlastuin, C., Lawrence, D. and Quiggin, J. (1982), ‘Size economies in Australian agriculture’, Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics 50(1), 1–32. 17. Quiggin, J. (1982), ‘A note on the existence of a competitive optimum’, Economic Record 55(161), 174–6. 18. Quiggin, J. (1982), ‘A theory of anticipated utility’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 3(4), 323–43. 19. Quiggin, J. (1983), ‘Wool price stabilisation and profit risk for wool users’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 27(1), 31–43. 20. Quiggin, J. (1983), ‘Underwriting agricultural commodity prices’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 27(3), 200–11. 21. Quiggin, J. and Bui-Lan, A. (1984), ‘The use of cross-sectional estimates of profit functions for tests of relative efficiency: a critical review’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 28(1), 44–55. 22. Watts, G. and Quiggin, J. (1984), ‘A note on the use of logarithmic time trends’, Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics 52(2), 91–9. 23. Quiggin, J. (1985), ‘Subjective utility, anticipated utility,and the Allais paradox’, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 35(1), 94–101. 24. Vanzetti, D. and Quiggin, J. (1985), ‘A comparative analysis of agricultural tractor investment models’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 29(2),

122–41. 25. Quiggin, J. (1986), ‘A note on the viability of rainfall insurance’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 30(1), 63–9. 26. Quiggin, J., Gargett, D. and Barrett., G. (1986), ‘Exits from the Australian dairy industry: causes and predictions’, Journal of Agricultural Economics 37(2), 233– 42. 27. Quiggin, J. (1986), ‘Common property, private property and regulation: the case of dryland salinity’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 30(2–3), 103– 117. 28. Quiggin, J. (1987), ‘Egoistic rationality and public choice: a critical review of theory and evidence’, Economic Record 63(180), 10–21. 29. Quiggin, J. (1987), ‘Decision weights in anticipated utility theory: response to Segal’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 8(4), 641–5. 30. Quiggin, J. (1988), ‘Scattered landholdings in common property systems’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 9(2), 187–201. 31. Quiggin, J. (1988), ‘Murray River salinity — an illustrative model’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70(3), 635–45. 32. Quiggin, J. (1988), ‘Private and common property rights in the economics of the environment’, Journal of Economic Issues 22(4), 1071–87. 33. Quiggin, J. (1989), ‘Sure things — dominance and independence rules for choice under uncertainty’, Annals of Operations Research 19, 335–57. 34. Quiggin, J. (1989), ‘Stochastic dominance in regret theory’, Review of Economic Studies 57(2), 503–11. 35. Quiggin, J. (1990), ‘Peak-load pricing and on-farm storage in the Australian grain handling system’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 34(3), 263–80. 36. Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘Murray river salinity mitigation — engineering and management approaches’, Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics 61(1), 1–25. 37. Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘On the optimal design of lotteries’, Economica 58(1), 1–16. 38. Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘Supply response under proportional profits taxation’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73(1), 36–39. 39. Leathers, H. and Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘Interactions between agricultural and resource policy: the importance of attitudes towards risk’, American Journal of

Agricultural Economics 73(3), 757–64. 40. Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘Contradictory predictions on supply response under stabilization: a reconciliation’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 35(3), 285–294. 41. Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘Comparative statics for Rank-Dependent Expected Utility theory’, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4(4), 339–50. 42. Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘Too many proposals pass the benefit–cost test: comment’, American Economic Review 81(5), 1446–9. 43. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘Efficient sets with and without the expected utility hypothesis: a generalization’, Journal of Mathematical Economics 21, 395–99. 44. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘Some observations on insurance, bankruptcy and input demand’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 18(1), 101–10. 45. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘Testing the implications of the Olson hypothesis’, Economica 59(1), 261–77. 46. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘Invariance of the efficient set: comment’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 19(1), 119–21. 47. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘Risk, self-protection and ex ante economic value — some positive results’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 23(1), 40–53. 48. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘Free lunches in the case for privatisation and deregulation’, Economic Analysis and Policy 22(1), 67–84. 49. Blarel, B., Hazell, P., Place, F. and Quiggin , J. (1992), ‘The economics of farm fragmentation: evidence from Ghana and Rwanda’, World Bank Economic Review 6(2), 233–54. 50. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘How to set catch quotas: a note on the superiority of constant effort rules’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 22(2), 199– 203. 51. Kelsey, D. and Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘Theories of choice under ignorance and uncertainty’, Journal of Economic Surveys 6(2), 133–53. 52. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘The pioneer’s curse: selection bias and agricultural land degradation’, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5(3), 241–6. 53. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Discounting and sustainability’, Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics 6(1), 161–64.

54. Dowrick, S. and Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Australia, Japan and the OECD: international GDP rankings and revealed preference’, Australian Economic Review (1st quarter), 21–34. 55. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Testing between alternative models of choice under uncertainty – comment’, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 6(2), 161–4. 56. Quiggin, J., Karagiannis, G. and Stanton, J. (1993), ‘Crop insurance and crop production : an empirical study of moral hazard and adverse selection’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 37(2), 95–113. 57. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘A policy program for full employment’, Australian Economic Review (2), 41–47. 58. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Taxation when borrowing is costly’, Economic Record 69(207), 416–27. 59. Ormiston, M. and Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Two-parameter decision models and rank- dependent expected utility’, Journal of Risk and Insurance 7(3), 273–82. 60. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Common property, equality and development’, World Development 21(7), 1123–38. 61. Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘The fiscal gains from contracting out: Transfers or efficiency improvements?’, Australian Economic Review September, 97–102. 62. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘Nash equilibrium with markup-pricing oligopolists’, Economics Letters 45, 245–51. 63. Dowrick, S. and Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘International comparisons of living standards and tastes: a revealed-preference analysis’, American Economic Review 84(1), 332–41. 64. Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘The White Paper and after: policies for full employment’, Just Policy 1(1), 27–38. 65. Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘Regret theory with general choice sets’, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 8(2), 153–65. 66. Quiggin, J., Fisher, B. and Peterson, D. (1994), ‘Cost pooling in Australian grain handling: a common property analysis’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76(2), 262–9. 67. Quiggin, J. and Wakker, P. (1994), ‘The axiomatic basis of anticipated utility: a clarification’, Journal of Economic Theory 64(2), 486–99. 68. Cameron, T. A. and Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘Estimation using contingent valuation

data from a "Dichotomous choice with follow-up" questionnaire’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 27(3), 218–34. 69. Kennedy, J., Quiggin, J. and Hardaker, B. (1994), ‘Incorporating risk-aversion into dynamic programming models: comment’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76(4), 960–4. 70. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘The suboptimality of efficiency’, Economics Letters 47, 389– 92. 71. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Common property in agricultural production’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 26(1), 179–200. 72. Quiggin, J. and Horowitz, J. (1995), ‘Time and risk’, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 10(1), 37–55. 73. Biglaiser, G., Horowitz, J. and Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Dynamic pollution regulation’, Journal of Regulatory Economics 8(1), 33–44. 74. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Economic choice in generalized expected utility theory’, Theory and Decision 38(1), 153–71. 75. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Does privatisation pay ?’, Australian Economic Review 95(2), 23–42. 76. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Does privatisation pay — A reply to Domberger’, Australian Economic Review 95(2), 48–49. 77. Blamey, R., Common, M. and Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Respondents to contingent valuation surveys: consumers or citizens ?’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 39(1), 263–88. 78. Langmore, J. and Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Work For All - Reply’, Agenda 79. Blamey, R. K., Common, M. S. and Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Respondents to contingent valuation surveys: consumers or citizens ? Reply to comment by Rolfe and Bennett’, Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics (2), 135–8. 80. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Nonpoint pollution control as a multi- task principal–agent problem’, Journal of Public Economics 59(1),95–116. 81. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Capital precommitment and competition in supply schedules’, Journal of Industrial Economics 44(4), 427–41. 82. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Competitive tendering and contracting in Australia’, Australian Journal of Public Administration 55(3), 49–58. 83. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Private investment in public infrastructure projects’,

Australian Economic Review 96(1), 51–64. 84. Bleichrodt, H. and Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Characterising QALYs under a general rank dependent utility model’, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 15(2), 151–60. 85. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Separation and hedging results with state-contingent production’, Economica 64(254), 187–210. 86. Dowrick, S. and Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘True measures of GDP and convergence’, American Economic Review 67(1), 41–64. 87. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Strategic trade under uncertainty: sufficient conditions for the optimality of specific, ad valorem, specific and quadratic trade taxes ’, International Economic Review 38(1), 187–203. 88. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Discount rates and sustainability’, International Journal of Social Economics 24(1), 65–90. 89. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Efficiency versus social optimality: the case of utility pricing’, Information Economics and Policy 9, 291–308. 90. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Estimating the benefits of Hilmer and related reforms’, Australian Economic Review 30(3), 256–72. 91. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Evaluating airline deregulation in Australia’, Australian Economic Review 30(1), 45–56. 92. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘The equity premium and the government cost of capital: a response to Neville Hathaway’, Agenda 4(4), 475–85. 93. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Altruism, total valuation and benefit–cost analysis’, Australian Economic Papers 36 (68), 144–155. 94. Cameron, T. A. and Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Estimation using contingent valuation data from a "Dichotomous Choice with Follow-Up" questionnaire: Reply’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 35(2), 5–7. 95. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Cost functions and duality for stochastic technologies’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80(May), 288–95. 96. Dowrick, S., Dunlop, Y. and Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘The cost of life expectancy and the implicit social valuation of life’, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 100(4), 673–91. 97. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Salience and the meeting place problem’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization , 33, 271–83. 98. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Individual and household willingness to pay for public

goods’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80(1), 58–63. 99. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Micro gains from micro reform’, Economic Analysis & Policy 28(1), 1–16. 100. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Social democracy and market reform in Australia and New Zealand’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy 14(1), 76–95. 101. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Existence value and the contingent valuation method’, Australian Economic Papers 37(3), 312–29. 102. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘The premature burial of natural monopoly: telecommunications reform in Australia’, Agenda 5(4), 427–440. 103. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R. G. (1998), ‘A state-contingent production approach to principal-agent problems with an application to point-source pollution control’, Journal of Public Economics 70, 441–72.. 104. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R. G. (1998), ‘Risk premiums and benefit measures for generalized expected utility theories’, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 17(2), 121–37. 105. Bleichrodt, H. and Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Life cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost–benefit analysis?’, Journal of Health Economics 18, 681–708. 106. Fraser, L. and Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Competitive tendering and service quality’, Just Policy 17, 53–7. 107. Horowitz, J., McConnell, K. and Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘A test of competing explanations of compensation demanded ’, Economic Inquiry 37(4), 637–46. 108. Just, R., Calvin, L., and Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Adverse selection in crop insurance: actuarial and asymmetric information incentives’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81(November), 834–49. 109. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Globalisation, neoliberalism and inequality in Australia’, The Economic and Labour Relations Review 10(2), 240–59. 110. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Human capital theory and education policy in Australia’, Australian Economic Review 32(2), 130–44. 111. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘The premature burial of natural monopoly: Rejoinder’, Agenda 6(1), 47–50. 112. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘The future of government: mixed economy or minimal state?’, Australian Journal of Public Administration 58(4), 39–53.

113. Quiggin, J. and Horowitz, J. (1999), ‘The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis: comment’, American Economic Review 89(4), 1044–45. 114. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (2000), The interaction between the equity premium and the risk-free rate, Economic Letters 69, 71–79. 115. Quiggin, J. (2000), Unemployment: Still hoping for a miracle?, International Journal of Manpower 21(5), 374–83. 116. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Globalization and economic sovereignty’, Journal of Political Philosophy 9(1), 56–80. 117. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R. G. (2001), The firm under uncertainty with general risk-averse preferences: a state-contingent approach, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 22(1), 5–20. 118. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (2001), Decomposing input adjustments under price and production uncertainty, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83(1), 20-34. 119. Chapman, B., Jordan, J., Oliver, K., and Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Unemployment traps and age-earnings profiles: estimates for Australia 2000’, Australian Journal of Labour Economics forthcoming. 120. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Environmental economics and the Murray–Darling river system’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 45(1), 67– 94. 121. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Economic solubility of the agency problem’, Economics Bulletin http://www.economicsbulletin.com/2001/volume3/EB-01C70001A.pdf. 122. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Valuing publicly- provided services’, Economic Record, 77(238), 291–304.. 123. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Market-oriented reform in the Australian electricity industry’, Economic and Labour Relations Review, 12 (1), 126–50. 124. Mallawaarachchi, T. and Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: integrating mathematical programming and Choice Modelling’, Australian Journal of gricultural and Resource Economics, 45(3), 411–36. 125. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Demography and the New Economy’, Journal of Population Research 18(2), 177–193. 126. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘The Australian productivity ‘miracle’: a sceptical view’,

Agenda ,8(4),333-348. 127. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Defence policy: One clear objective’, 73(6), 15–21. 128. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Active labour market policy as an automatic stabilizer’, The Drawing Board 2(2), http://www.econ.usyd.edu.au/drawingboard/journal/0111/quiggin.pdf.. 129. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory’, Theory and Decision 51, 125–44. 130. Bleichrodt, H. and Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Life cycle preferences over consumption and health: a reply to Klose’, Journal of Health Economics 21(1), 167–8. 131. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘The state-contingent properties of stochastic production functions’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 84, 513–26.. 132. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Optimal producer behavior in the presence of area-yield crop insurance’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84, 320–34. 133. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘The risk premium for equity: implications for the proposed diversification of the social security fund’, American Economic Review, 92(5), 1104–15. 134. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Risk and self-protection: a state-contingent view ’, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 25(2), 133–45.. 135. Quiggin, J. (2002), Social capital and public expenditure in Australia, NSW Public Health Journal, 13 (6), 131–33. 136. Quiggin, J. (2002), Contracting out: promise and performance, Economic and Labour Relations Review, 13(1), 88–204. 137. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Environmental economics and the Murray–Darling river system: reply’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 46(4), 627–28. 138. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘The fiscal impact of the privatisation of the Victorian electricity industry’, Economic and Labour Relations Review 13(2), 326–339. 139. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Privatisation and nationalisation in the 21st century’, Growth 50, 66–73. 140. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Price stabilization and the risk-averse firm’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85(2), 336–47.

141. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (2003), Indirect certainty equivalents for the firm under price and production uncertainty, Economics Letters, 78(3), 309–316. 142. Dowrick, S., Dunlop, Y. and Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Social indicators and comparisons of living standards: a revealed preference analysis’, Journal of Development Economics 70(2), 505–29. 143. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Private initiatives in infrastructure’, Australian Journal of Public Administration, 62, 113-14. 144. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Public investment and the risk premium for equity’, Economica, 70(February), 1–18. 145. Quiggin, J. and Horowitz, J. (2003), Global warming: Dynamic and comparative static analyses, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 47(4), 429–46. 146. Quiggin, J. (2003), Background risk in generalized expected utility theory, Economic Theory, 22, 607–11. 147. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R. G. (2003), Local utility functions and local probability transformations, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 27(2), 110–20. 148. Gans, J. S. and Quiggin, J. (2003), A technological and organizational explanation for the size distribution of firms, Journal of Small Business Economics, 21(4), 243–256,. 149. Bleichrodt, H., Diecidue, E. and Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Equity weights in the allocation of health care: the rank-dependent QALY model’, Journal of Health Economics, 23(1), 157–71. 150. Chambers, R.G., Fare, R. and Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Jointly radial and translation homothetic preferences: generalized constant risk aversion’, Economic Theory, 23(3), 689–99. 151. Chambers, R.G. and Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Incentives and standards in agency contracts’, Journal of Public Economic Theory, 7(2), 201-228. 152. Chambers, R.G. and Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Technological and financial approaches to risk management in agriculture: an integrated approach’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 48(2), 199–223. 153. Chapman, B, Freiburg, A., Quiggin, J. and Tait, D. (2004), ‘Using the tax system to collect fines’, Australian Journal of Public Administration, 63(3), 20–32. 154. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Noise trader risk and the welfare effects of privatization’, Economics Bulletin, 5(9), 1–8.

155. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Risk, PPPs and the Public Sector Comparator’, Australian Accounting Review, 14(2), 51–62. 156. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Looking back on microeconomic reform: a skeptical viewpoint’, Economic and Labour Relations Review, forthcoming, 157. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Research and teaching: Complements or Substitutes?’, Australasian Journal of Economics Education, forthcoming, 158. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R.G. (2004), ‘Invariant risk attitudes’, Journal of Economic Theory, 117(1), 96–118. 159. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R.G. (2004), ‘Drought policy: a graphical analysis’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 48(2), 225–51. 160. Tan, P.-L. and Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Sustainable management of the Great Artesian Basin: an analysis based on law and environmental economics’, The Australasian Journal of Natural Resources Law and Policy, 9(2), 55–103. 161. Chambers, R.G. and Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Linear-risk-tolerant, invariant risk preferences’, Economics Letters, 86(3), 303-09. 162. Chambers, R.G. and Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Output price subsidies in a stochastic world’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 87(2), 501–08. 163. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘The Y2K scare: causes, costs and cures’, Australian Journal of Public Administration, 64(3), 46–55. 164. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Increasing uncertainty: a definition’, Mathematical Social Sciences, 49(2), 117–41. 165. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘The oil shock of 2005’, Australian Review of Public Affairs, 6(1), http://www.australianreview.net/digest/2005/11/quiggin.html. 166. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Quiggin responds to "neither borrower nor lender be" by Thomas J. Grennes’, The Economists' Voice, 2(2), Article 6. 167. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Public–Private Partnerships: options for improved risk allocation’, policy forum: financing public infrastructure’, Australian Economic Review, 38(4), 445–50. 168. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Pharmaceuticals and intellectual property: the US–Australia FTA’, Agenda, 12 (2), 145–58. 169. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘The equity premium and the socialist case for public ownership’, Imprints: Egalitarian Theory and Practice, 8(2), 112–24. 170. Chambers Robert G. and Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Incentives and standards in agency

contracts’, Journal of Public Economic Theory, 7(2), 201–28. 171. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘What does the equity premium mean?’, The Economists' Voice, 2(4), Article 2, http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol2/iss4/art2. 172. Bell, S. and Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Asset price instability and policy responses: the legacy of liberalization’, Journal of Economic Issues, XL(3), 629–49. 173. Freebairn, J. and Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Water rights for variable supplies’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 50(3), 295–312. 174. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘The risk premium for equity: implications for resource allocation, welfare and policy’, Australian Economic Papers, 45(3), 253–68. 175. Hazeldine, T. and Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘No more free beer tomorrow? Economic policy and outcomes in Australia and New Zealand since 1984’, Australian Journal of Political Science, 41(2), 145–59. 176. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Public–Private partnerships: Options for improved risk allocation’, UNSW Law Journal, 29(3), 289–93. 177. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Blogs, wikis and creative innovation’, International Journal of Cultural Studies, 9(4), 481-496. 178. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Repurchase of renewal rights: a policy option for the National Water Initiative’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 50(3), 425–35. 179. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Stories about productivity’, Australian Bulletin of Labour, 32(1), 18–26. 180. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Urban water supply in Australia: the option of diverting water from irrigation’, Public Policy, 1(1), 14–22. 181. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R.G. (2006), ‘Capital market equilibrium with moral hazard and flexible technology’, Journal of Mathematical Economics, 42, 358–63. 182. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R.G. (2006), ‘Supermodularity and risk aversion’, Mathematical Social Sciences, 52, 1–14. 183. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R.G. (2006), ‘The state-contingent approach to production under uncertainty’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 50(2), 153–69. 184. Racionero, M. and Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Fixed wages and bonuses in agency contracts: The case of a continuous state space’, Journal of Public Economic Theory, 8(5), 761–77.

185. Adamson, D., Mallawaarachchi, T. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Water use and salinity in the Murray–Darling Basin: A state-contingent model’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 51(3), 263–81. 186. Chambers, R.G. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Dual approaches to the analysis of risk aversion’, Economica, 74(294), 189–213. 187. Chambers, R.G. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Information value and efficiency measurement for risk-averse firms’, Journal of Productivity Analysis, 27(3), 197– 208. 188. Menezes, F. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Games without rules’, Theory and Decision, 63, 315–47. 189. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Ambiguity and the value of information: An almost-objective events analysis’, Economic Theory, 30(3), 409–14. 190. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Complexity, climate change and the precautionary principle’ Environmental Health, 7 (3), 15–21. 191. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘The prime ministerial task group on emissions trading: Advocacy and analysis’, Agenda, 14(3), 5–14. 192. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Reply to McKibbin and Robson’, Agenda, 14(3), 27–28. 193. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R.G. (2007), ‘Supermodularity and the comparative statics of risk’, Theory and Decision, 62, 91–117. 194. Quiggin, J. and van Veelen, M. (2007), ‘Multilateral indices: Conflicting approaches’, Review of Income and Wealth, 53(2), 372–78. 195. Sirasoontorn, P. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘The political economy of privatisation in the Thai electricity industry’, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 12(3), 403–19. 196. Venn, T. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Accommodating indigenous cultural heritage values in resource assessment: Cape York Peninsula and the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia’, Ecological Economics, 61(2–3), 334-44. 197. Alauddin, M. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Agricultural intensification, irrigation and the environment in South Asia: Issues and policy options’, Ecological Economics, 65(1), 111–24. 198. Bell, S. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘The metagovernance of markets: The politics of water management in Australia’, Environmental Politics, , 17(5), 712–29. 199. Bell, S. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Beyond stop/go? Explaining Australia's long boom’, Journal of Australian Political Economy, (61), 71-87.

200. Chambers, R.G. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Comparative statics for state-contingent technologies’, Journal of Economics, 93, 203–14. 201. Chambers, R.G. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Narrowing the no-arbitrage bounds’, Journal of Mathematical Economics, 44(1), 1–14. 202. Hunter, D. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Money ruins everything’, Hastings Communications & Entertainment Law Journal, 30, 203–55. 203. Osaki, Y. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Stochastic dominance representation of optimistic belief: Theory and applications’, Economics Letters, 101, 275–78. 204. Pezzey, J.C.V., Jotzo, F. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Fiddling while carbon burns: Why climate policy needs pervasive emission pricing as well as technology promotion’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 52(1), 97–110. 205. Quiggin, J. and Potts, J. (2008), ‘Economics of non-market innovation and digital literacy’, Media International Australia, (128), 144-50. 206. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Amateur content production, networked innovation and innovation policy’, Cultural Science, 1(2), http://www.culturalscience.org/journal/index.php/culturalscience/article/view/14/52. 207. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Counting the cost of climate change at an agricultural level’, CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources, 2(092), 1–9. 208. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Managing the Murray–Darling basin: Some implications for climate change policy’, Economic Papers, 27(2), 160–66. 209. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Stern and his critics on discounting and climate change’, Climatic Change, 89(3-4), 195–205. 210. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Uncertainty and climate change policy’, Economic Analysis and Policy, 38(2), 203–10. 211. Adamson, D., Mallawaarachchi, T. and Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Declining inflows and more frequent droughts in the Murray–Darling Basin: Climate change, impact and adaption’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 53(3), 345–66. 212. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R.G. (2009), ‘Bargaining power and efficiency in insurance contracts’, The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 34, 47–73. 213. Chambers, R.G. and Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Separability of stochastic production decisions from producer risk preferences in the presence of financial markets’,

Journal of Mathematical Economics, 45(11), 730–37. 214. Menezes, F., Quiggin, J. and Wagner, L. (2009), ‘Grandfathering and greenhouse: The role of compensation and adjustment assistance in the introduction of a carbon emissions trading scheme for australia’, Economic Papers, 28 (1), 1–11. 215. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Six refuted doctrines’, Economic Papers, 28(3), 238–47. 216. Chambers, R. and Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Cost minimization and the stochastic discount factor’, Annals of Operations Research, 176(1), 349–68. 217. O’Donnell, C., Chambers, R.G. and Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Efficiency analysis in the presence of uncertainty’, Journal of Productivity Analysis, 33(1), 1–17. 218. Menezes, F. and Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Markets for Influence’, International Journal of Industrial Organisation, 28, 307–10. 219. Quiggin, J., Adamson, D., Chambers, S. and Schrobback, P. (2010), ‘Climate change, uncertainty and adaptation: the case of irrigated agriculture in the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia’, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics,, 58, 531–4. 220. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Bad Politics Makes Bad Policy: The Case of Queensland’s Asset Sales Programme*’, Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, 29(1), 13–22. 221. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Response to J. E. King’s Response to my Article ‘Six Refuted Doctrines’’, Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, 29(1), 40–40. 222. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Agriculture and global climate stabilization: a public good analysis’, Agricultural Economics, 41(S), 121–32. 223. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Water policy after the drought’, Australian Quarterly, , 82(2), 21–25. 224. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Beauty ≠ Truth? Thoughts on Krugman’s ‘How did economists get it so wrong?’, Agenda, 17(1), 113–8. 225. Chambers, R.G., Hailu, A. and Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Event-specific Data Envelopment Models and Efficiency Analysis’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 55(1), 90–106. 226. Farrell, H. and Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘How to Save the Euro -- and the EU Reading Keynes in Brussels’, Foreign Affairs, 90(3), 96–103. 227. Farrell, H. and Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Networks and Ideational Power: The Rise and Decline of Keynesianism during the Economic Crisis’, World Politcs, in press,

228. Freebairn, J. and Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Special Taxation of the Mining Industry’, forthcoming, 229. Lordan, G. and Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Should we put a thin subsidy on the policy table in the fight against obesity?’, Forum for Health Economics & Policy, 14(2), Article 1. 230. Menezes, F. and Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘More competitors or more competition? Market concentration and the intensity of competition’, Economic Letters, in press, 307–10. 231. Nauges, C., O’Donnell, C. and Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Uncertainty and technical efficiency in Finnish agriculture’, European Review of Agricultural Economics, 38(4), 449–67. 232. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Stabilizing the global climate: A simple and robust benefit cost analysis’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, in press, 233. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Economic blogs’, Economic Papers, 30(4), 1–4. 234. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Equity between overlapping generations’, Journal of Public Economic Theory, forthcoming, 235. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Financial markets: masters or servants?’, Politics and Society, 39(3), 331–45. 236. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘What Have We Learned from the Global Financial Crisis?’, Australian Economic Review, 237. Schrobback, P., Adamson, D. and Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Turning Water into Carbon: Carbon sequestration vs. water flow in the Murray–Darling Basin’, Enviromental and Resource Economics, 49(1), 23–45. Articles in international magazines and newspapers 238. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Austerity alone will not solve deficit crises’, Financial Times, 29 November, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f414f524-fbcd-11df-b79a- 00144feab49a.html#axzz1dDzz8jzE. 239. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Five Zombie Economic Ideas That Refuse to Die’, Foreign Policy, 15 October, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/15/five_zombie_economic_ideas_ that_refuse_to_die. 240. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Standard & Poor Cripples U.S. Recovery’, National Interest, 17 August, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/standard-poor-cripples-us- recovery-5763.

241. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Europe Charges toward Second Great Depression’, National Interest, 5 August, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/europe-charges-toward- second-great-depression-5711. 242. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘China’s Imminent Collapse?’, National Interest, 13 September, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/chinas-imminent-collapse- 5880. 243. Farrell, H. and Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Can Europe Be Saved?’, Daily Beast, 4 October, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/10/04/can-the-euro-be- saved.html. 244. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Euro Crisis’s Enabler: The Central Bank’, New York Times, 11 November, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/09/opinion/euro-crisiss-enabler- the-central-bank.html. Articles in policy journals

245. Quiggin, J. and Stoeckel, A. (1982), ‘Protection, income distribution and the rural sector’, Economic Papers 1(2), 57–71. 246. Quiggin, J. and Vlastuin, C. (1983), ‘Size economies and off-farm employment’, Quarterly Review of the Rural Economy 5(2), 176–8. 247. Robinson, M. and Quiggin, J. (1985), ‘Retreat from social control: financial deregulation since World War II’, Journal of Australian Political Economy 18, 9– 16. 248. Quiggin, J. (1985), ‘What I'd like to see us get out of the Tax Summit’, Lobby (Autumn), 3–6. 249. Quiggin, J. (1986), ‘Deregulation and privatisation’, Lobby (Winter), 22–27. 250. Quiggin, J. (1987), ‘White trash of Asia?’, Current Affairs Bulletin 64(2), 18–25. 251. Quiggin, J. (1988), ‘In the public domain: public or private monopoly?’, Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics 56(3), 253–54. 252. Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘The private interest theory of politics: liberal or authoritarian?’, Policy 7(2), 51–54. 253. Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘The private interest theory debate — rejoinder’, Policy 7(3), 50–51. 254. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘The psychology of political economy’, Methodus 4(1), 55– 57. 255. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘ Partial financial deregulation and the current account’,

Economic Papers 11(1), 53–56. 256. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘Fightback and One Nation: A comparative analysis’, Australian Tax Forum 9(2), 127–54. 257. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘The Modified One Nation - Tax and Jobs Levy.’, The Australian TAFE teacher. 27(4). 258. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Existence values and benefit cost analysis: A third view’, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 12(1), 195–99. 259. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Growing our way to full employment?’, Labour and Industry 5(3), 91–104. 260. Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘Socially useful employment: Address to the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia on the receipt of the 1993 Academy Award for Scholarship’, Newsletter of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia 13(1), 13–21. 261. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Similar triangles and the theory of regulation’, Economic Papers 14(3), 86–88. 262. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Economic policy for the election and beyond’, Economic Papers 14(4), 51–63. 263. Langmore, J. and Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Future directions for Labor’, Evatt Papers 4(1), 62–79. 264. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Partial sale: worst of all options’, Communications update 119, 4–5. 265. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘The reluctant Budget’, Eureka Street 6(7), 4–5. 266. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Can full employment be restored?: Comment’, JCU Outlook 9(1), 4. 267. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Private and public ownership and urban transport ’, Urban Policy and Research 15(1), 56–58. 268. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Privatisation: what to count?’, Australian Accountant 18–9 April. 269. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Work for all — what's stopping us?’, Australian Options , 9, 7–11. 270. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘The market for tomatoes and the market for labour’, Journal of Economic and Social Policy 2(1), 84–95. 271. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Economic rationalism’, Crossings, 2(1), 3–12.

272. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Competition hang-ups’, Eureka Street 8(4), 23–4. 273. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Homelessness: the human face of economic imperatives’, Parity 11(6), 8. 274. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Tax reform is a multi-faceted quandary’, Australian Farm Journal August, 11. 275. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Why I am not an Austrian’, New Australian. 276. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘National Competition Policy and Human Services’, Northern Radius. 277. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Quiggin on GST’, Conservation North Queensland 15(2), 5. 278. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Rationalism and rationality in economics’, Queensland Economic Review (3), 4–5. 279. Quiggin, J. (2000), Neoliberal globalization and the scope for employment policy, Development . 280. Quiggin, J. (2000), Shortening working hours, Australian Options 17, 2–5. 281. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Is our working week sustainable?’, ingovernment 2(1), 14, 25. 282. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Free market reform in New Zealand: an Australian perspective’, Victoria Economic Commentaries 17(2), 35–42. 283. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Is there a future for social democracy?’, Australian Options 20, 6–10. 284. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Government and Opposition tax policies balanced’, Online Opinion , http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/2001/sep01/quiggin.htm. 285. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Privatisation’, Dissent Summer(4), 39–43. 286. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘The ‘People’s Bank’: the privatisation of the Commonwealth Bank and the case for a new publicly-owned bank’, Australian Options, forthcoming. 287. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Foreign investment and the branch-office economy’, Sydney Papers 13(2), 113–9. 288. Quiggin, J. (2001), Corporate collapses and deregulatory dilemmas, The Drawing Board Digest (Also published as: 'Contested deologies: the Ansett mess', Arena 55(Oct-Nov), 55-57.

) 289. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Australia has gone backwards’, Adelaide Voices Oct/Nov, 8.

290. Quiggin, J. (2002). Private financing of public infrastructure, Dissent 8(Autumn/Winter), 13–17. 291. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Telstra: the case for renationalisation and divestiture’, Evatt l. 292. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Low-cost Kyoto: 272 economists mightn't be wrong’, Eureka Street 12(9), 8–10. 293. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Free trade and economic integration with the United States: a critical view’, Dialogue, 22(2), 33–37. 294. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘The United States–Australia Free Trade Agreement’, Creative distraction, IV(March), 7–8. 295. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Financing our roads, rail, tunnels and bridges: the case for infrastructure bonds’, King's Counsel, 22, 1–4. 296. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Apples with apples: comparing the cost of capital’, Public Infrastructure Bulletin, Issue 3, March, 11–12; 21–22. 297. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘A century of inglorious failure: on the legacy of Russia's 1905 revolution’, Australian Financial Review, Review p. 11. 298. Gans, J. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘The practicalities of emissions trading’, Melbourne Review, 3(2), 60–65. 299. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Election 2007: Water policy’, Australian Review of Public Affairs, September, 300. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Issues in Australian water policy’, Australian Chief Executive, February, 38–47. 301. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Turning up the heat: say it isn’t so’, The Walkley Magazine, Issue 42, 16. 302. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Net moves from Right to Left’, The Walkley Magazine, Issue 45, 17. Book Chapters 303. Quiggin, J. (1985), ‘The economics of gambling’, in Caldwell, G., Haig, B., Dickerson, M. and Sylvan, L. (ed.), Gambling in Australia, Croom Helm, Sydney. 304. Quiggin, J. (1987), ‘Land degradation : behavioural causes’, pp. 203–12 in Chisholm, A. and Dumsday, R. (ed.), Land Degradation:Problems and Policies, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 305. Quiggin, J. (1987), ‘Lotteries - an economic analysis’, pp. 127–38 in Walker, M. (ed.), Faces of Gambling, Sydney, National Association for Gambling Studies.

306. Quiggin, J. and Fisher, B. S. (1988), ‘Market and institutional structures in the grain handling industry: an application of contestability theory’, pp. 47–60 in Fisher, B. S. and Quiggin, J. (ed.), The Australian Grain Handling, Storage and Transport Industries: An Economic Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sydney, Research Report No. 13. 307. Quiggin, J. and Fisher B.S. (1988), ‘Pooling in the Australian Grain Handling and Transport Industries’, pp. Ch 7 in Fisher B.S. and Quiggin, J. (ed.), The Australian Grain Storage, Handling and Transport Industries: An Economic Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sydney, Sydney. 308. Quiggin, J. (1988), ‘An Assessment of the Effects of Peak-Load Pricing at Country Receival Points’, pp. Ch 8 in Fisher B.S. and Quiggin, J. (ed.), The Australian Grain Storage, Handling and Transport Industries: An Economic Analysis’, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Sydney, Sydney. 309. Quiggin, J. (1989), ‘The Role and Consequences of Special Interest Groups and Political Factors’, pp. Ch 3 in Chapman, B. (ed.), Australian Economic Growth, Melbourne, MacMillan. 310. Quiggin, J. (1990), ‘Irrational action And political process: a comment’, pp. 137– 40 in Brennan, G. and Walsh C. (ed.), Rationality, Individualism and Public Policy, Canberra, Centre for Research on Federal Financial Relations, Australian National University. 311. Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘Increasing risk: another definition’, in Chikan, A. (ed.), Progress in Decision, Utility and Risk Theory, Kluwer, Amsterdam. 312. Quiggin, J., Rose, R. and Chambers, R. (1992), ‘Valuing conservation in the Kakadu Conservation Zone (summary)’, pp. 105–8 in Wallace, N. (ed.), Natural Resource Management: An Economic Perspective, ABARE, Canberra. 313. Chambers, R., Lee, H. and Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Sharecropping and externalities’, pp. 55–71 in Wunderlich, G. (ed.), Land ownership and taxation in American agriculture, Denver, Colorado, Westview Press. 314. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Food and the GST’, pp. 65–82 in Head, J. (ed.), Fightback! An Economic Assessment, Australian Tax Research Foundation, Glen Waverley, Victoria. 315. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Market Failure and Government Failure:Comment’, pp. 277– 279 in King, S. and Lloyd, P. (ed.), Economic Rationalism: Dead End or Way Forward?, Allen and Unwin, St. Leonards, NSW.

316. Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘The optimal design of crop insurance’, pp. 115–134 in Hueth, D. and Furtan, W. H. (ed.), The Problems of Crop Insurance in Developed Countries, Springer-Verlag, Boston. 317. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Measuring Economic Progress-Comments’, pp. 89–92 in Anderson, P., Dwyer, J. and Gruen, D. (ed.), Productivity and Growth, Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney. 318. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Short term bias and Australia’s economic performance’, pp. 19–45 in EPAC Commission Paper No 6 (ed.), Short-termism in Australian investment, AGPS, Canberra. 319. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Benefits and costs to residential consumers of telecommunications competition’, in For Whom the Phone Rings, Sydney, Consumer Telecommunications Network. 320. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘The equity premium and public holdings of equity’, pp. 113– 128 in EPAC Commission Paper No 6 (ed.), Short-termism in Australian investment, AGPS, Canberra. 321. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Making the future work for young Australians’, in Spierings, J., Voorendt, I. and Spoehr, J. (ed.), Jobs for Young Australians, Adelaide. 322. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Should we be investing more in education ?’, pp. 83–102 in Efficiency and equity in education policy, Canberra. 323. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘The Hilmer reforms: issues, benefits and proposed next steps’, in Marsh, I. (. ). (ed.), Implementing the Hilmer Competition Reforms: An Overview of the Issues, Benefits and Proposed Next Steps, Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), Sydney. 324. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘National Savings and Investment Policy: A Syllabus of Errors’, in Sheehan, P., Grewal, B. and Kumnick, M. (ed.), Dialogues on Australia's Future: In honour of the late Professor Ronald Henderson, Melbourne, Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University. 325. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘The welfare effects of alternative choices of instruments and targets for macroeconomic stabilisation policy’, 174—187 in Lowe, P. (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Economic Group, Reserve Bank of Australia. 326. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Microeconomic reform in Australia’, 17–23 in Cater, M. and Paddon, M. (ed.), Shouldering the Burden: The Equity Impact of Microeconomic Reform , University of New South Wales, Sydney , Sydney Public Sector

Research Centre. 327. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Work for all: what's stopping us?’, 429–37 in Tomlinson, J., Patton, W., Creed, P. and Hicks, R. (eds.), Unemployment policy and practice, Australian Academic Press, Brisbane. 328. Dowrick, S. and Quiggin, J. (1998 ), ‘Measures of economic activity and welfare: the uses and abuses of GDP ’, pp. 93–107 in Eckersley, R.(ed.), Measuring Progress: Is Life Getting Better? , CSIRO PUBLISHING , Collingwood, Victoria. 329. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘A growth theory perspective on the effects of microeconomic reform’, in Productivity Commission and Australian National University (ed.), Microeconomic Reform and Productivity Growth, Ausinfo, Canberra. 330. Quiggin, J. (1998 ), ‘Introduction’, pp. vii-viii in van Wel, C. and Quiggin, J. (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Australian Economics: Essays in Honour of Professor Percy Harris , University of Central Queensland Press , Rockhampton . 331. Quiggin, J. (1998 ), ‘Private provision of transport infrastructure — BOOTS, BOTS & BOOS ’, pp. 67–79 in van Wel, C. and Quiggin, J. (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Australian Economics: Essays in Honour of Professor Percy Harris , University of Central Queensland Press , Rockhampton . 332. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘TAB and SA Lotteries Commission’, pp. 41–62 in Spoehr, J. (ed.), Risky Business: An independent assessment of the implications of the privatisation of public enterprise in South Australia, Public Service Association of South Australia and the Centre for Labour Research, University of Adelaide, Adelaide. 333. Quiggin, J. and Spoehr, J. (1998), ‘ETSA’, pp. 63–87 in Spoehr, J. (ed.), Risky Business: An independent assessment of the implications of the privatisation of public enterprise in South Australia, Public Service Association of South Australia and the Centre for Labour Research, University of Adelaide, Adelaide. 334. J. Quiggin, Discussion of 'Industrial Relations Reform and Labour Market Outcomes; A Comparison of Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom' by Mark Wooden and Judith Sloan, in (Debelle, G. and Borland, J. Eds.), “Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market: Proceedings of a conference held at the H.C. Coombs Centre for Financial Studies, Kirribilli,9-10 June, 1998”, 1998. 335. Carman, M. and Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Marginal economics: Microeconomic reform

under Labor’, in Carman, M. and Rogers, I. (ed.), Out of the Rut: Economic Policy Under Labor 1983 to 1996 and Beyond , Allen & Unwin , Sydney. 336. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘The privatisation puzzle ’, in Carman, M. and Rogers, I. (ed.), Out of the Rut: Economic Policy Under Labor 1983 to 1996 and Beyond , Allen & Unwin , Sydney. 337. Spoehr, J. and Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘ETSA and the privatisation panacea’, in Spoehr, J. (ed.), Beyond the Contract State - policies for social and economic renewal in South Australia, Wakefield Press, Adelaide. 338. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Delays and uncertainties in the negotiations for mining on Aboriginal land’, in Altman, J. C., Morphy, F. and Rowse, T. (ed.), Land Rights at Risk: Evaluations of the Reeves Report, CAEPR Research Monograph, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University, Canberra, pp. 131–40. 339. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘The future of public ownership in Australia: Privatisation or renationalisation?’, in Officer, R. R. and Quiggin, J., Privatisation: Efficiency of fallacy? Two perspectives, Committee for Economic Development of Australia Information Paper No 61, Sydney, pp. 23–50. 340. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R. G. (1999), ‘The state-contingent approach to risk premiums and comparative statics in generalised expected utility theory’, in Machina, M. and Munier, B. (ed.), Beliefs, interactions and preferences in decision-making, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 53–67. 341. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Human services and employment in the post-industrial labour market’, 30–44 in O'Connor, I., Warburton, J. and Smyth, P. (ed.), Contemporary perspectives on social work and the human services: challenges and change, Longman, Brisbane. 342. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘The public sector as a job engine’, forthcoming in Bell, S. (ed.), Unemployment Crisis: Which Way Out?, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 343. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Discussion of 'Microeconomic Policies and Structural Change' by Peter Forsyth’, in Gruen, D. and Shrestha, S. (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 1990s: Proceedings of a conference held at the H.C. Coombs Centre for Financial Studies, Kirribilli, 24–25 July2000, 268–71. 344. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘The fall and rise of the global economy: finance’, in Sheil, C. (ed.), Globalisation: Australian Impacts, University of New South Wales Press,

Sydney, pp. 19–34. 345. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Markets’, in Langmore, J. (ed.), 2001 Report on the World Social Situation, United Nations, New York. 346. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Public enterprise’, in Dow, G. and Parker, R. (ed.), Business, Work and Community, Oxford University Press, Oxford. pp. 101–116. 347. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Social democracy and market reform in Australia and New Zealand ’, in Glyn, A. (ed.), Social Democracy in Neoliberal Times: The Left and Economic Policy since 1980, Oxford University Press, Oxford , pp. 80–109. 348. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (2002), "Dual applications to estimating supply response systems under price and production uncertainty: the state-contingent approach," in A Comprehensive Assessment of the Role of Risk in U.S. Agriculture, eds. R.E. Just and R.D. Pope, New York: Kluwer, pp. 105–20. 349. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Why have the returns to microeconomic reform been so disappointing’, in Fox, K. (ed.), Efficiency in the Public Sector ., Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston/Dordrecht/London, pp. 37–60. 350. Quiggin, J. (2002), 'Economic governance and microeconomic reform'. in Bell, . (ed) 2002 Economic Governance and Institutional Dynamics, OUP, Melb., pp. 158–7. 351. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Public enterprises’, in Dow, G. and Parker, R. (eds.), Business, Work and Community: Into the New Millennium, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 101–116. 352. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Free market reform and the South Australian electricity supply industry’, 51–70 in Spoehr, J. (ed.), Power Politics: the Electricity Crisis and You, Wakefield Press, Kent Town, South Australia. 353. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Privatisation’, 17–30 in Dowrick, S. (ed.), Cambridge Handbook of the Social Sciences in Australia, Cambridge University Press, Melbourne. 354. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R. G. (2003), ‘The state-contingent approach to modeling environmental risk management’, Chapter 1 in Babcock, B. A., Fraser, R. W. and Lekakis, J. N. (ed.), Risk Management and the Environment: Agriculture in Perspective, Kluwer, Amsterdam. 355. Hayward, D. & Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘A financial vision for a long-term Labor government in Victoria’, In Visions for Victoria, (Eds, Hayward, D. & Ewer, P.) The Vulgar Press, Carlton North, Victoria, pp. 29–51.

356. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Governance of public corporations: profits and the public benefit’, 27–41 in Michael J. Whincop (ed.), From bureaucracy to Business Enterprise: Legal and Policy Issues in the Transformation of Government Services, Ashgate Publishing Limited, Hampshire, England. 357. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Dilemmas of competition policy’, pp. 286–89 in Argyrous, G. and Stillwell, F. (ed.), Economics as a Social Science: Readings in Political Economy, second edn, Pluto Press Australia, Annandale, New South Wales. 358. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Electricity privatisation in Victoria: fiscal and economic impacts’, In Power Progress: An Audit of Australia’s Electricity Reform Experiment, (Ed, Hodge G., Sands V., Hayward D. and Scott D.) Australian Scholarly Publishing, Melbourne, pp. 109–23. 359. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Economic policy’, In The Howard Years, (Ed, Manne, R.) Black Inc. Agenda, pp. 169–90. 360. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘The economic policy debate’, In The Politics of Australian Society: Political Issues for the New Century (2nd edn), (Ed, Boreham, P., Stokes, G. and Hall, R.) Pearson–Longman, Sydney, pp. 263–77. 361. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Economic liberalism: fall, revival and resistance’, pp. 21–43 in Ideas and Influence: Social Science and Public Policy in Australia, (Eds, Saunders, P. and Walter, J.) UNSW Press, Sydney. 362. 300. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Economic constraints on public policy’, pp. 526–39 in Oxford Handbook of Public Policy, (Ed, Moran, M., Rein, Martin and Goodin, Robert E., (eds)) Oxford University Press, Oxford. 363. Bell, S. & Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Unemployment, Labour Market Insecurity and Policy Options’, pp. 147-160 in Social Policy in Australia: Understanding for Action, (Eds, McLelland, A. & Smyth, P.) 364. Chapman, B. et al. (2006), ‘Criminal reparations: Using the tax system to collect fines’, pp. 140-60 in Government Managing Risk: Incoming Contingent Loans for Social and Economic Progress, (Ed, Chapman, B.) Routledge, Great Britain. 365. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Risk, discounting and the public sector’ in Pannell, Dave and Schilizzi, Steven (eds) Economics and the Future: Time and Discounting in Private and Public Decision Making, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, pp. 57–68. 366. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘The End of the Public Sector Debate’, pp. 49-61 in The State of the States: The State of the Public Sector, (Ed, Sheil, C.) The Evatt Foundation, Sydney, Australia.

367. Quiggin, John (2006), 'Economic blogs and blog economics' pp. 69–71 in Bruns, Axel and Jacobs, Joanne (eds), Uses of Blogs, Peter Lang Publishing, New York, Chapter 7. 368. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Five Observations on Financing Health Care’, pp. 222–237 in Engaging the New World: Studies on the Knowledge Economy, (Eds, Grewal, B. & Kumnick, M.) Melbourne University Press. 369. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Republican War on Science’, pp. 3-4 in Looking for a Fight, (Ed, Holbo, J.) Glassbead Books, Parlor Press, Indiana, USA. 370. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘War over Science or War on Science’, pp. 79–81 in Looking for a Fight, (Ed, Holbo, J.) Glassbead Books, Parlor Press, Indiana, USA. 371. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Globalisation: Macroeconomic management and public finance’, pp. 60-72 in Globalisation and the Asia-Pacific: contested perspectives and diverse perspectives, (Eds, Islam, Y. & Nguyen, T.) 372. Quiggin, J. & Grant, S. (2007), ‘Conjectures, refutations and discoveries: Incorporating new knowledge in models of belief and choice under uncertainty’, pp. 9–25 in Uncertainty and risk: Mental, formal, experimental representations, (Eds, Abdellaoui, M., et al.) Springer, Heidelberg. 373. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Internet and innovation’, pp. 150–55. in Open content licensing: Cultivating the creative commons, (Ed, B., F.) Sydney University Press, Sydney. 374. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Economists and uncertainty’,. in Uncertainty and risk: Multidisciplinary perspectives, (Eds, Bammer, G. & Smithson, M.) Earthscan, in press, London. 375. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Employment and innovation in the information economy’, in Knowledge policy: Foresight for the twenty first century, (Eds, Hearn, G., Rooney, D. & Wright, D.), in press. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. 376. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Is creative capitalism illegal?’, pp. 77–79 in Creative Capitalism: A Conversation with Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and other Economic Leaders, (Eds, Kinsley, M. and Clark, C.) Simon & Schuster, New York. 377. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Putting creativity back into creative capitalism’, pp. 284–86 in Creative Capitalism: A Conversation with Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and other Economic Leaders, (Eds, Kinsley, M. and Clark, C.) Simon & Schuster, New York. 378. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Uncertainty, risk and water management in Australia’, pp.

61–73 in Water Policy in Australia: The Impact of Change and Uncertainty, (Ed, Crase, L.) Resources for the Future Press, Washington DC. 379. Bell, S. and Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Unemployment policy: unemployment, underemployment and labour market insecurity’’, pp. 145–57 in Social Policy in Australia: Understanding for Action(2nd edn), (Eds, McClelland, A. and Smyth, P.) Oxford University Press, Melbourne. 380. Gruen, N. and Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Boiling frogs and black swans: How resilient is our economy — and how could we improve its resilience?’, pp. 41–46 in Brighter Prospects: Enhancing the Resilience of Australia, (Ed, Cork, S.) Australia21 Shaping the Future, Canberra. 381. Bell, S. and Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Unemployment policy: unemployment, underemployment and labour market insecurity’’, pp. 145–57 in Social Policy in Australia: Understanding for Action(2nd edn), (Eds, McClelland, A. and Smyth, P.) Oxford University Press, Melbourne. 382. Marston, G., Moss, J. and Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Introduction: Shifting risk?’, pp. vii–xvi in Risk, Welfare and Work, (Eds, Marston, G., Moss, J. and Quiggin, J.) Melbourne University Press, Carlton, Victoria. 383. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Climate change and intergenerational equity’, pp. 67–81 in Climate Change and Social Justice, (Ed, Moss, J.) Melbourne University Press, Carlton, Victoria. 384. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Australia and the Global Financial Crisis’, pp. 99–123 in Goodbye to All That, (Eds, Manne, R. and McKnight, D.) Black Inc. Agenda, Melbourne. 385. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Government as the ultimate risk manager’, pp. 30–32 in Jobs, Industry and Opportunity: Growth Strategies after the Crisis, Policy Network (Progressive Governance), London. 386. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Lessons from the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement’, pp. 98–108 in No Ordinary Deal: Unmasking the Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement, (Ed, Kelsey, J.) Bridget Williams Books with the New Zealand Law Foundation, Wellington, New Zealand. 387. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Risk shifts in Australia: implications of the financial crisis’, pp. 3–23 in Risk, Welfare and Work, (Eds, Marston, G., Moss, J. and Quiggin, J.) Melbourne University Press, Carlton, Victoria. 388. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Surviving the next crisis’, in More Than Luck: ideas

Australia needs now, (Eds, Davis, M. and Lyons, M.) Centre for Policy Development, Sydney. 389. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘The Economics of New Media’, in Blackwell Companion to New Media Dynamics, (Eds, Bruns, A., Burgess, J. and Hartley, J.) Blackwell, London. 390. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Making it work’, in (Eds, Quiggin, J., Chambers, S. and Mallawaarachchi, T.) Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. 391. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘Managing Risk in the Murray-Darling Basin’, in Basin Futures: Water reform in the Murray-Darling Basin, (Eds, Connell, D. and Grafton, Q.) ANU E Press, Canberra. 392. Quiggin, J. (2011), ‘The Lost Golden Age of Productivity Growth?’, in Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney.

Other

393. Quiggin, J. (1988), Review of ‘Restraining Leviathan: Small Government in Practice ’, Economic Analysis and Policy 18(2), 259–61. 394. Quiggin, J. (1993), Review of ‘Conflicts and Cooperation in managing environmental resources (Pethig, R. ed)’, Economic Record 69(204), 94–95. 395. Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘Review of ‘Inequality re-examined’ by Sen, A.’, Economic Record 70(208), 106. 396. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Review of Kevin Davis and Ian Harper (eds), Privatisation: the financial implications, Allen & Unwin, Sydney, 1993’, Canberra Bulletin of Public Administration 83(February), 109–11. 397. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Book Review: Russell Mathews and Bhajan Grewal, The Public Sector in Jeopardy: Australian Fiscal Federalism from Whitlam to Keating’, The Economic and Labour Relations Review 9(2), 310–14. 398. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Challenging orthodoxy in the battle for sustained growth’, Australian Financial Review 16 April(04.16), pp. 6–7 (Review of Peter Brain (1999), Beyond Meltdown: The Global Battle for Sustained Growth, Scribe Publications, Melbourne.) 399. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Globalisation: brave new world or techno trap?’, Australian Financial Review 1 October, pp. 5–6. (Review Article: Alvin Toffler, Future Shock , Alvin Toffler &Heidi Toffler Creating a New Civilization: The Politics of the Third Wave, Hans-Peter Martin and Harald Schumann Global Trap , Thomas

Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree:Understanding Globalization.) 400. Quiggin, John (2000), ‘Review of U. Schmidt's Axiomatic Utility Theory Under Risk: Non-Archimedean Representations and Application to Insurance Economics, Springer, Berlin, 1998’, Journal of Economics 71(1), 80–82. 401. Quiggin, J., (2000)Review of Labor without class by Thompson, Andrew, Australian Options, 402. Quiggin, J., (2000)Review of Productivity Commission (1999) Australia’s Gambling Industries, Agenda, 7(2)(167–70. 403. Quiggin, J. (2000), Taking stock of irrational exuberance, Australian Financial Review, 1 September, Review of Dow 36000 by Glassman and Hassett and Irrational exuberance by Shiller. 404. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘The economic rationalists strike out’, Australian Financial Review, 6 April. Review of, Building Prosperity: Australia's Future as a Global Player by Wolfgang Kasper (2000) and Exasperating Calculators: The Rage over Economic Rationalism and the Campaign against Australian Economists by William Coleman and Alf Hagger (2001). 405. Quiggin, J.(2001)Review of Thomas Frank's 'One Market Under God', Secker & Warburg.,, BOSS (Financial Review) 2(3),p. 64 406. Quiggin, John (2001), ‘Kids Money: Review of Smith D. (ed.) Indigenous Families and the Welfare System: Two Community Case Studies†, ’, Agenda 8(3), 263–65. 407. Quiggin, John (2001), ‘The state of welfare at home and abroad: Review of Ehrenreich, B, Nickel and Dimed and Goodin, R. et al The Real Worlds of Welfare Capitalism’, Australian Financial Review, 14 September. 408. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Thinking their way to the top: on the alleged decline of public intellectuals’, Australian Financial Review, 10 May, Review of Public Intellectuals: A Study of Decline, by Richard Posner. 409. Quiggin, J. (2002). The misadventures of reckless minds,,Review of Mark Lilla, The Reckless Mind: Intellectuals in Politics, New York Review of Books 2001; Christopher Hitchens, Letters to a Young Contrarian, Basic Books 2001; Christopher Hitchens, Unacknowledged Legislators: Writers in the Public Sphere, Verso 2000, Australian Financial Review, 5 July 410. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘John Quiggin on progressive reform: review of Boris Frankel's When the Boat Comes in, Pluto Press, 2002’, 60(August–September),

47–49. 411. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Myths of the Market; Review of: Thomas Frank, One Market Under God, Sydney, Vintage, 2001 & William Baumol, The Free-Market Innovation Machine: Analyzing the Growth Miracle of Capitalism, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2002 ’, The Drawing Board (Digest) , http://www.econ.usyd.edu.au/drawingboard/digest/0211/quiggin.html. 412. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Economics of the Dark Side: Review of Jack Hirshleifer, The Dark Side of the Force: Economic Foundations of Conflict Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001’, The Drawing Board (Digest), http://www.econ.usyd.edu.au/drawingboard/digest/0205/quiggin.html. 413. Quiggin, J. (2002), A rough ride to freedom for information. Review of The Future of Ideas: The Fate of the Commons in a Connected World, by Lawrence Lessig, Random House (US), Australian Financial Review, 8 November 414. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Review of Refashioning the Rag Trade: Internationalising Australia's Textiles, Clothing and Footwear Industries by Michael Webber and Sally Weller, UNSW Press, 2001’, 21(1), 56–7. 415. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Review of Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences by Steve Kenn, Pluto Press, 2001’, Economic Record 78(241), 245-6 416. Quiggin, John (2002), ‘Review of At the Crossroads - three essays by Jane Kelsey, New Zealand Economic Paper, 36(1), 127–30. 417. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Trading blows in the evolutionary war: Review of Steven Pinker's The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature. ’, Australian Financial Review, 24–27 January. 418. Quiggin, John (2003), ‘Managing the risky business of life, Review of Robert Shiller's The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century ’, Australian Financial Review, 13 June. 419. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘ Review of Shaun Goldfinch’s Remaking New Zealand and Australian Economic Policy: Ideas, Institutions and Policy Communities’, Governance: An International Journal of Policy, Administration and Institutions, vol 17 no 2, 308–10. 420. Quiggin, J. (2004), How democracies get out of bad wars. review of Gil Merom's how democracies lose small wars, Cambridge University Press, Australian Financial Review, Review, pp. 4–5,18 June.

421. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘The magic in science’, Australian Financial Review, 17 December. 422. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘A curious consensus’, Australian Financial Review, Review p. 3, p. 6. 423. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Dismantling the poverty trap’, Australian Financial Review, Review p. 4. 424. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Riding the nanopony express’, Australian Financial Review, Review pp. 4–5. 425. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘To boldly go: contenders for science fiction's top literary prize’, Australian Financial Review, Review pp. 4–5. 426. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Healthy, wealthy and wise’, Australian Financial Review, Review, p. 5. 427. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘No agreement on the Washington consensus’, Australian Financial Review, Review, pp. 10–11. 428. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Working towards a simpler life’, Australian Financial Review, Review p. 4. 429. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘'Spinning gold from straw, sometimes: on the commercial successes of the internet's "long tail"', Review of Chris Anderson’s Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More, Hyperion (in the US)’, Australian Financial Review, Review, 9 March, Review p. 3. 430. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘'A pessimistic view of optimism: on the hazard of being unprepared', Review of Karen A. Cerulo's Never Saw it Coming: Cultural Challenges to Envisioning the Worst, Chicago University Press’, Australian Financial Review, 9 February, Review p. 5. 431. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘The greenhouse mafia’, Review of Clive Hamilton’s Scorcher: The Dirty Politics of Climate Change, Black Inc Agenda’, Australian Financial Review, 1 June, Review pp. 4–5. 432. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Economists do give a damn, after all’, Review of Diane Coyle’s The Soulful Science: What Economists Really Do and Why It Matters, Princeton University Press’, Australian Financial Review, 20 July, Review pp. 3– 4. 433. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Rethinking the limits to economic growth’, Australian Financial Review, 18 April.

Reports 434. Quiggin, J. (1989), ‘The Future of the Family Farm’, Report for Australian Special Rural Research Council, Centre for International Economics, Canberra. 435. Quiggin, J. (1991), ‘Contingent valuation of Kakadu Conservation Zone’, Report for Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra. 436. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘Analysis of export finance insurance for wheat’, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra. 437. Quiggin, J. (1992), ‘Uncertainty and point estimators in benefit–cost analysis’, World Bank, Washington. 438. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Production with insecure property rights’, Institute for Research on the Informal Sector, University of Maryland. 439. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Fightback and One Nation: Revision and update’, Australian National University, Canberra. 440. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Fightback, One Nation and People with Disabilities’, Disabled People International, Canberra. 441. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Sustainability and inter-generational equity’, Environmentally Sustainable Development Secretariat, 442. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘The Industry Commission approach to public sector reform’, Evatt Foundation, Sydney. 443. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘The modified One Nation tax cut and the proposed jobs levy - an assessment’, Community and Public Sector Union, 444. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘The public sector and national savings strategy’, Community and Public Sector Union, Sydney. 445. Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘Approaches to measuring efficiency and effectiveness in schools education’, Schools Council of Australia, Canberra. 446. Quiggin, J. (1994), ‘Managing the Australian Economy in 1995 and beyond: Full employment vs Monetary contraction’, Community and Public Sector Union, 447. McMillen, J., Ryan, N. and Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Social and economic reports: potential impacts of the Cairns casino’, QUT, 448. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Enterprise bargaining in universities: A framework for analysis’, James Cook University, 449. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Productivity increases and enterprise bargaining at JCU’, James Cook University, Townsville.

450. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘The growth consequences of Hilmer and related reforms’, Community and Public Sector Union, 451. Byron, P. and Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Comparative study of the socio-economic impacts of the Brisbane and Cairns casinos 1996–1998’, Faculty of Business, Queensland University of Technology, 452. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Implementation of competition policy in local government’, Urban Local Government Association of Queensland, 453. Hamilton, C., Hundloe, T. and Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Ecological tax reform in Australia: using taxes, charges and public spending to protect the environment without hurting the economy’, Australia Institute, Canberra. 454. Hamilton, C. and Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Economic analysis of greenhouse policy: a layperson's guide to the perils of economic modelling’, Australia Institute, Canberra. 455. Hamilton, C. and Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘The privatisation of CSL’, Australia Institute, Canberra. 456. Knapman, B. and Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘The Australian economy in the twentieth century’, Bremen, 457. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘The Hilmer Reforms and NSW Agriculture’, Report to the NSW Dairy Corporation, Sydney. 458. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Notes on the economic implications of privatisation of SA Ports and Homestart’, Public Service Association of South Australia and Centre for Labour Research, University of Adelaide, Adelaide. 459. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Options for privatisation of the HEC: A supplementary report’, Report to Public Accounts Committee, Parliament of Tasmania, 460. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Options for privatisation of the HEC: An economic assessment’, Report to Public Accounts Committee, Parliament of Tasmania, 461. Hamilton, C. and Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘The Economics of Reducing Greenhouse Gases’, The Australia Institute, Canberra. 462. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘The Budget position in South Australia’, Report for Centre for Labour Research, Adelaide University, 463. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘The medium-term Budget strategy for South Australia’, Report for Centre for Labour Research, Adelaide University, 464. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Risk, discounting and the evaluation of public investment

projects’, Report for Bureau of Transport Economics, Canberra. 465. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Risk and discounting in project evaluation’, Appendix to Risk in Cost–Benefit Analysis, Report 110, Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Canberra. 466. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Interpreting Globalization: Neoliberal and Internationalist Views of Changing Patterns of the Global Trade and Financial System’, Overarching Concerns (2000 - 2005), Paper 7, United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, Geneva. 467. Gans, J. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘The practicalities of emissions trading’, Melbourne Review, 468. Mallawaarachchi, T. et al. (2007), ‘Reduced water availability: impacts on agricultural activities and regional economies in the Murray–Darling Basin’, Report prepared by ABARE for the Murray–Darling Basin Commission, Canberra. 469. Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Issues in Australian water policy’, Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) as part of the CEDA/Fujitsu 2007 Economic and Political Overview, Sydney. 470. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘The Risk Society: Social Democracy in an Uncertain World’, Centre For Policy Development, Sydney. 471. Mallawaarachchi, T., Yainshet, A., Adamson, D., Hone, S., Oliver, M., Kokic, P., Quiggin, J. and Gooday, P. (2007), ‘Reduced water availability: impacts on agricultural activities and regional economies in the Murray–Darling Basin’, Report prepared by ABARE for the Murray–Darling Basin Commission, Canberra. 472. Mallawaarachchi, T., Hone, S., Adamson, D., Yainshet, A., Oliver, M., Kokic, P., Quiggin, J. and Gooday, P. (2008), ‘Reduced Water Availability: Impacts on Agricultural Activities and Regional Economies in the Murray–Darling Basin’, ABARE client report prepared for the Murray–Darling Basin Commission, July., 473. Adamson, D. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Climate Change and Irrigation in Renmark’, Report prepared for ARUP as part of the Renmark Irrigation Trust Irrigation Modernisation Proposal, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 474. Quiggin, J., Adamson, D., Chambers, S. and Schrobback, P. (2009), ‘Water Trade in the Murray–Darling Basin: Report on consultancy output: Modelling Effects of

Trade Restrictions’, Report prepared for the South Australian Government, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland, Brisbane., 475. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Report on Urban Water Demand Management’, National Water Commission, November. Submissions 476. Quiggin, J. and Fisher, B. (1987), ‘Untitled’, Submission to Industries Assistance Commission Draft Report Hearings on the Wheat Industry, University of Sydney. 477. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘ Industry Commission draft report on urban transport - Comments’, Submission to Industry Commission inquiry into urban transport, CEPR, ANU. 478. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘External costs of private vehicles - Harm to other road users’, Submission to Industry Commission inquiry into urban transport, CEPR, ANU. 479. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Competition and communications: some notes on reform options for Australia Post’, Submission to Parliamentary Inquiry, Canberra. 480. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Employment and Unemployment in Australia - A Long-term Perspective’, Submission to House of Representatives Standing Committee on Long-term Strategies, 481. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Notes on competition policy’, Submission to ACT Legislative Assembly Committe of inquiry, 482. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Private Infrastructure: A response to the Interim Report’, Submission to EPAC Taskforce on Infrastructure, 483. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Private sector involvement in infrastructure projects’, Submission to EPAC Private Infrastructure Task Force, 484. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Response to’, Submission to Industry Commission Draft report on contracting out in the public sector, 485. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Untitled’, Submission to Public Sector Research Centre's paper on Australia's contracting public services: critical views of contracting-out by the public sector, 486. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Untitled’, Submission to Industry Commission Inquiry into contracting out in the public sector, 487. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Whole-of-Government Accounting and Public Sector Net Worth’, Submission to Joint Parliamentary Committee on Public Accounts, 488. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘The environmental trust fund and sustainable environmental spending’, Submission to Senate Environment, Recreation, Communications and

the Arts Reference Committe inquiry into the Natural Heritage of Australia Trust Fund Bill 1996, 489. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘The partial privatisation of Telstra: an assessment’, Submission to Senate Environment, Recreation, Communications and the Arts Reference Committe inquiry into the Telstra (Dilution of Public Ownership) Bill 1996, 490. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Risk, public sector net worth and the proposed privatisation of the NSW electricity industry’, Submission to Committee of Inquiry into the proposed privatisation of the NSW electricity industry (Hogg Committee), 491. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘The choice facing Labor’, Submission to Australian Labor Party Economic Policy Committee, 492. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘The Hilmer process and regulation of the legal profession’, Submission to Parliament of New South Wales Standing Committee on Law and Justice, Sydney. 493. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Transport Infrastructure’, Submission to parliamentary committee, 494. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Untitled’, Submission to National Competition Council, 495. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Delays and uncertainty in the negotiations for mining on Aboriginal land’, Submission to Reeves Review, Canberra. 496. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Socio-economic consequences of National Competition Policy’, Submission to Productivity Commission Inquiry, 497. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘The proposed privatisation of Telstra: an assessment’, Submission to Senate Environment, Recreation, Communications and the Arts Legislation Committee inquiry into Telstra (Transition to Full Private Ownership) Bill 1988, 498. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Equity aspects of the proposed GST’, Submission to Senate Committee of Inquiry into a New Tax System, 499. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘The proposed Charter of Fiscal and Social Responsibility for Queensland’, Submission to Queensland Treasury, Brisbane. 500. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Untitled’, Submission to Productivity Commission Inquiry into Gambling, 501. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Defence policy: One clear objective’, Submission to Defence Review 2000, Canberra. 502. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Feasibility and Consequences of a ban on Internet gambling’,

Submission to Senate and National Office of the Information Economy Inquiry, Canberra. 503. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Telstra: structure, ownership and service’, Submission to Committee of Inquiry into Telstra Service Standards, Canberra. 504. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Untitled’, Submission to Review of Australia's General Tariff Arrangements, Prepared for Australian Industry Group, Sydney. 505. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Resolving the University crisis’, Submission to Inquiry of the Senate Employment, Workplace Relations, Small Business and Education Committee into the capacity of public universities to meet Australia’s higher education needs, 506. Spoehr, J. and Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘The promise of a social dividend: quality jobs and services for the 21st Century’, Submission to Public Service Association of South Australia State Budget Submission 2001-2002, 507. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Untitled’, Submission to Victorian Parliament Public Accounts and Estimates Committee's Inquiry into Private Sector Investment in Public Infrastructure, Canberra. 508. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘The case against economic integration of Australia and the United States’, Submission to Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee’s Inquiry into the General Agreement on Trade in Services and Australia and US Free Trade Agreement, Canberra, 11 April, 509. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Untitled’, Submission to Australian Accounting Standards Board on Exposure Draft 108 dealing with Share-based Payment, (‘ED 108 “Request for comment on IASB ED 2 share-based payment”), Melbourne, 5 February. 510. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Untitled’, Submission to Parliament of Australia, Joint Committee on Treaties, Inquiry into the proposed Free Trade Agreement between Australia and the United States, 511. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Paying for infrastructure’, Submission to Australian Labor Party Inquiry into the Financing and Provision of Australian Infrastructure, Brisbane, October. 512. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Internet comment on electoral matters’, Submission to Parliamentary Electoral Matters Committee Inquiry into the Conduct of the 2004 Federal Election and Matters Related, Brisbane, July. 513. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Internet comment on electoral matters: Supplementary

submission’, Submission to Parliamentary Electoral Matters Committee Inquiry into the Conduct of the 2004 Federal Election, Brisbane, August. 514. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Assessing the costs and benefits of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases’, Submission to Stern Committee of Review into Climate Change, UK, 515. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Sacred cows and salinity’, Submission to Senate Environment, Communications, Information Technology and the Arts Committee Inquiry into the extent and economic impact of salinity, 516. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Untitled’, Submission to NSW Parliament's Joint Select Committee on the Cross City Tunnel, 517. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Water reform in Australia: strengths and limitations of market-based mechanisms’, Submission to Submission to the Productivity Commission research study, Rural Water Use and the Environment: The Role of Market Mechanisms, 518. Gans, J. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘The practicalities of emissions trading’, Submission to Prime Ministerial Task Group on Emissions Trading, University of Melbourne and University of Queensland. 519. Menezes, F., Quiggin, J. and Wagner, L. (2008), ‘The role of compensation and adjustment assistance in the introduction of an emissions trading scheme for Australia: response to the Green Paper’, Submission to Submission To Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Inquiry University of Queensland, Brisbane., 520. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Presentation of evidence to a Public Hearing of the Senate Select Committee on Climate Policy’, Submission to Parliament of Australia, Department of Parliamentary Services, Brisbane, 28 April. 521. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘The end of quasi-guarantees and the case for a narrow banking model of prudential regulation’, Submission to Submission to the Senate Economics Committee Inquiry into the Bank Funding Guarantees, Brisbane, 28 April. 522. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Brief responses to the Terms of Reference’, Submission to Submission to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics Inquiry into ‘Raising the Level of Productivity Growth in the Australian economy, Canberra, 19 November. 523. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Urban Water Policy in Australia: Supply, Demand and Industry Structure’, Submission to Submission to the Productivity Commission

Urban Water Inquiry, November. 524. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Submission’, Submission to Submission to the Senate Economics References Committee - Inquiry into augmented taxation assessments, November. 525. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Submission’, Submission to Submission to the Senate Economics References Committee inquiry into competition in the Australian banking sector, December. Conference Papers 526. Quiggin, J. and Drake-Brockman, J. (1978) ‘Commodity price stabilisation schemes’, Economic Society Conference, Sydney . 527. Quiggin, J. (1981) ‘Pricing behaviour of firms with market power’, Economic Society Conference, Canberra . 528. Quiggin, J. (1982) ‘Higher interest rates and the farm sector’, Australian Agricultural Economics Society conference, Melbourne . 529. Quiggin, J. (1982), ‘Discount rates for farm investments’, paper presented at Australian Agricultural Economics Society conference, Melbourne . 530. Quiggin, J. (1982) ‘Common property, externalities and multiple use resources’ Australian Agricultural Economics Society conference, Melbourne . 531. Quiggin, J. (1983) ‘Compensation criteria and the policy economist’, Economic Society Conference, Hobart . 532. Quiggin, J. (1984) World trade and the case for macro-economic co-operation, Australian Agricultural Economics Society conference, Sydney . 533. Quiggin, J. (1985) ‘Risk and uncertainty in agricultural land degradation’, Australian Agricultural Economics Society conference, Armidale . 534. Hall, N., Quiggin, J. Purtill, A. and Fraser, L. (1987) ‘New wine in old bottles: updating a large programming model’, Australian Agricultural Economics Society conference, Adelaide . 535. Quiggin, J. (1988) ‘Prospect theory without intransitivity’ , Paper presented at seminar on Uncertainty in Economics and Finance, Te-Aviv, May 1988. 536. Quiggin, J. (1988), ‘Does micro-irrigation pay’, invited keynote paper presented at 4th International Congress on Micro-Irrigation, Albury, October 1988. 537. Quiggin, J. and Fisher, B.S. (1989),’Generalised Utility theories: Implications for stabilisation policy’, Australian Agricultural Economics Society conference,

Christchurch. 538. Anderson, J. and Quiggin, J. (1990), ‘Risk and project appraisal’, paper presented at 2nd World Bank Development Economics Conference, Washington, April. 539. Quiggin, J. (1990),’Stochastic dominance, efficient sets and Galois duality’, paper presented at 4th Foundations of Utility Research Conference, Duke University, June, under revision. 540. Quiggin, J. (1990), ‘Framing’, paper presented at Conference in my honor, George Mason University, December, under revision. 541. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘A bimodal model of industrial organization’, paper presented at Sydney, ANU/BIE Conference on Industry Economics. 542. Quiggin, J. (1993), ‘Unemployment and real wages’, paper presented at CEPR/Access Economics Forecasting Conference, Canberra. 543. Quiggin, J. (March, 1994), ‘Outcomes, costs and incentives - comment’, paper presented at Conference on Investment in Public Education, Schools Council, Canberra. 544. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘The case for a Tobin tax’, paper presented at Evatt Foundation breakfast, Sydney. 545. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘The costs of financial deregulation’, paper presented at CEDA Conference on financial deregulation, Sydney. 546. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Making the Future Work for Young Australians’, paper presented at Jobs for Young Australians Conference, Adelaide. 547. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Privatisation and private infrastructure: How the public pays’, paper presented at Public First Conference, RMIT, Melbourne. 548. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘The role of employment programs in achieving Work for All’, paper presented at National Skillshare Conference, Brisbane. 549. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Scale economies and the size distribution of firms: A bimodal model ’, paper presented at Conference on Return to Increasing Returns, Monash University, Melbourne. 550. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Should we be investing more in education ?’, paper presented at NBEET / ANU Conference on Efficiency and Equity in Education Policy, Canberra, September. 551. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Where is economics going ?’, paper presented at Seminar presentation, JCU.

552. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Work to be Done’, paper presented at Paper presented to ACOSS Conference, Brisbane. 553. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Competitive tendering and contracting: An assessment of the Industry Commission Draft Report’, paper presented at IIR Conference on Competitive tendering and contracting , Sydney. 554. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘The intensification of work and the polarisation of labor’, paper presented at Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia Workshop, Canberra. 555. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘The economics of resource use and environmental impact in intensive agricultural systems’, paper presented at Sugar 2000 Conference, Brisbane, August 19–23. 556. Dowrick, S. and Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Measures of economic activity and welfare: the uses and abuses of GDP’, paper presented at , Paper presented at the National Conference on Indicators, Canberra, 4 July. 557. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Micro gains from micro reform’, paper presented at , Invited paper, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Conference. 558. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Risk and asset management’, paper presented at , AIC Conference on Asset Management, Melbourne. 559. Quiggin, J. and Chambers, R. G. (1997), ‘Risk premiums and comparative statics for generalised expected utility theories with and without probabilistic sophistication’, paper presented at , Foundations of Utility Research Conference VIII. 560. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Why have the returns to microeconomic reform been so disappointing’, Conference on Public Sector Efficiency Measurement, Centre for Applied Economic Research,University of New South Wales. 561. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘The equity premium puzzle and the privatisation paradox’, Paper presented at Industry Economics Conference, Australian National University, Canberra. 562. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Comment on 'Poor Workers: The link between low wages, low family income and the tax and transfer systems',’, paper presented at Fairly Efficient? Equity and Productivity in the Australian Labour Market', jointly sponsored by the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the Reshaping Australian Institutions Project, Australian National University, Canberra International Hotel, Canberra.

563. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Equity and efficiency effects of food taxes’, Paper presented at the 27th Annual Conference of Economists, University of Sydney, Sydney. 564. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Are there core functions of government?’, Debate with Geoff Carmody, Director, Access Economics, at the IIR Conference on 'Future Directions in Australian Government', Rydges Hotel, Canberra, 26th February. 565. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Human services and the post-industrial labour market’, paper presented at Academy of Social Sciences in Australia Workshop on 'Rethinking Social Work and the Human Services in Australia, Customs House, Brisbane. 566. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘National Competition Policy and the regions’, Paper presented at the 2nd National Conference on Sustainable Economic Growth for Regional Australia, Beaudesert. 567. Quiggin, J. (1998 ), ‘Private Infrastructure Options: BOOTs, BOTs and BOOs’, paper presented at Conference on 'BOOT: In the Public Interest?' organised by the Australian Centre for Independent Journalism, Australian Mekong Resource Centre, Sydney University and Community Aid Abroad. , University of Technology, Sydney. 568. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Privatisation and the National Market’, Paper presented at the National Energy Industy Conference, Albert Park Conference Centre, Melbourne, 21st March. 569. Mallawaarachchi, T. and Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Determining public welfare values in land allocation: a case study of the sugar industry in northern Australia’, 43 Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Christchurch, 20 - 22 January. 570. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘The state-contingent approach to risk premiums and comparative statics in generalised expected utility theory’, Paper presented at the Economic Theory Conference, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3rd February. 571. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Building a future that works: solutions to unemployment’, Paper presented at a plenary session of a conference on 'Social Policy for the 21st Century: Justice and Responsibility', sponsored by the Social Policy Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 21–23 July. 572. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Delays and uncertainty in the negotiations for mining on Aboriginal land ’, Presentation of a paper at a conference on 'Evaluating the Reeves Report: Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives' jointly convened by the

Department of Archaeology and Anthropology and the Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University, Canberra, 26–27th March. 573. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘From production under uncertainty to choice under uncertainty and back again: a personal view of generalised expected utility theory’, Paper presented at a plenary session of the IXth International Conference on the Foundations and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory, Congress Centre, Marrakesh, Morocco, 2–5 June. 574. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘The state-contingent approach to risk premiums and comparative statics in generalised expected utility theory’, Paper presented at the Economic Theory Conference, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3rd February. 575. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Unemployment: Still hoping for a miracle?’, 6th National Conference on Unemployment, Newcastle. 576. Bleichrodt, H. and Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Life cycle preferences for consumption and health: when is cost effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost benefit analysis?’, Paper presented at the 2nd World Conference on 'Private and Public Choices in Health and Health Care', World Trade Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, 6–9th June. 577. Quiggin, J. (2000), Globalisation, democracy and public prosperity, Don Dunstan lecture, Adelaide. 578. Quiggin, J. (2000), Why nationalise ?, Paper presented to Economic Society of Australia, Adelaide. 579. Chambers, R. G. and Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘"Dual applications to estimating supply response systems under price and production uncertainty: the state-contingent approach," invited paper presented at the Southern Regional Risk Project SER- IEG-31 Annual Meetings, Gulf Shores, Alabama, March 22–24, 2001. 580. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Economic governance and microeconomic reform’, Paper presented to conference on economic governance, Brisbane. 581. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Governance of public corporations: Profits and the public benefit’, Paper presented to conference on governance of public corporations, Brisbane. 582. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Human capital investment and the business cycle’, paper presented at ACOSS Paper ACOSS and CEDA, Sydney.

583. Quiggin, J. (2001), Background risk under constant risk aversion, Paper presented at FUR X conference, Turin, Italy. 584. Grant, Simon and Quiggin, John (2002), ‘A model-free definition of increasing uncertainty’, paper presented at Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Conference, Paris, June 3-5. 585. Quiggin, John (2002), ‘Inequality and globalisation: neoliberal and internationalist interpretations’, paper presented at Improving Knowledge on Social Development in International Organizations, United Nations Research Institute for Social Development second annual retreat, Prangins, Switzerland, 29- 30 May . 586. Quiggin, John (2002), ‘Looking back at microeconomic reform’, paper presented at Economic Society of Australia Annual Conference, Adelaide, 30 September-4 October. 587. Chapman, B., Freiburg, A., Quiggin, J., and Tait, D. (2002), ‘Rejuvenating financial penalties: using the tax system to collect fines’, Representing Justice Conference, University of Canberra, December 12-14. 588. Quiggin, J. (2003),‘Public–private partnerships’, Paper presented to the Australasian Council of Public Accounts Committee’s Biennial Conference, Victorian Parliament, Melbourne, 3 February. 589. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘The incompleteness hypothesis and the precautionary principle’, Paper presented at the 48th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Melbourne, 10–13 February. 590. Grant, S. and Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Unforeseen contingencies: a propositional approach’, Paper presented at FUR Conference, Paris. 591. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Consistent Bayesian updating with unforeseen contingencies’, Paper presented at the 23rd Australasian Economic Theory Workshop, University of Auckland, Auckland NZ, 592. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Localisation, globalisation and finance’, Paper presented to the 2nd 'State of Australian Cities' Conference hosted by the Urban Research Program, Griffith University, Brisbane. 593. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Production under uncertainty: the state-contingent approach’, 49th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Coffs Harbour, 9-11 February 2005. 594. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Social capital and open content’, Paper presented to the

'Open Content Licencing (OCL): Cultivating the Creative Commons' Conference hosted by Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane. 595. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Research and discovery: unforeseen contingencies and the economic analysis of uncertainty’, Paper presented to the Economic Society of Australia's 34th Conference of Economists, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 596. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘State-contingent technologies’, Paper presented to the 49th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Coffs Harbour, 597. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Urban water supply in Australia: the option of diverting water from irrigation’, Paper presented to the 2nd 'State of Australian Cities' Conference hosted by the Urban Research Program, Griffith University, Brisbane.. 598. Adamson, D., Mallawaarachchi, T. and Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘State-contingent modelling of the Murray–Darling Basin: implications for the design of property rights’, 50th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Sydney, 8 February. 599. Venn, T. and Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Accommodating indigenous cultural heritage values in resource assessment: Cape York Peninsula and the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia’, 50th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Sydney, 10 February. 600. Quiggin, J. and Grant, S. (2006), ‘Learning and Discovery’, 12th International Conference on the Foundations and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory (FUR XII 2006), Rome, 26 June. 601. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Employment in remote Aboriginal communities: a regional development perspective’, Invited paper presented to a session on ‘Applied econometrics in small populations: issues for measuring indigenous disadvantage’ at the Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society, Alice Springs, 5 July. 602. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘Risk and uncertainty in agricultural economics and agricultural policy’, Symposium No. 3 at the 26th Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Gold Coast, 14 August. 603. Quiggin, J. (2006), ‘The uncertain future of water policy’, Keynote address to the 35th Australian Conference of Economists, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, 27 September. 604. Tran, T.T. et al. (2007), ‘Climate change and its implications for irrigators in the

Murray–Darling Basin’, 51st Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Queenstown, New Zealand, 13–16 February. 605. Adamson, D., Mallawaarachchi, T. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Climate change and climate uncertainty in the Murray–Darling Basin’, 51st Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Queenstown, New Zealand, 13–16 February. 606. Menezes, F. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Can game theory be saved?’, 2007 Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4 July. 607. Grant, S., Kline, J. and Quiggin, J. (2007), ‘Lost in translation: honest misunderstandings and ex post disputes’, 2007 Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 6 July. 608. Adamson, D., Mallawaarachchi, T. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Long run impacts of climate change for irrigators in the Murray Darling Basin under increased uncertainty’, 52nd Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Canberra, Australia, 5-8 February. 609. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘The impact of climate change on agriculture’, Australian Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology workshop, Brisbane, 3 September. 610. Menezes, F., Quiggin, J. and Wagner, L. (2009), ‘Grandfathering and greenhouse: the role of compensation and adjustment assistance in the introduction of an emissions trading scheme for Australia’, Paper presented at the 53rd Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Cairns, 11 February. 611. Adamson, D., Mallawaarachchi, T. and Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Modelling uncertain states of nature’, Paper presented at the 53nd Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Canberra, 12 February. 612. Quiggin, J. and Hughes, T. (2009), ‘Climate change: can the Great Barrier Reef be saved?’, Paper presented at the 53nd Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Canberra, 12 February. 613. Schrobback, P., Adamson, D. and Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Turning water into carbon: water flow versus carbon sequestration in the Murray–Darling Basin’, Paper presented at the 53nd Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Cairns, 13 February.

614. Quiggin, J. (2009), Presentation of a keynote speech at conference on ‘Evidence, Science and Public Policy’ sponsored by the School of Philosophical and Historical Inquiry, Sydney Centre for the Foundations of Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia and the Tilburg Center for Logic and Philosophy of Science, Tilburg University, The Netherlands, 26–28 March 2009. 615. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘The big picture: sustainability, challenges, opportunities and imperatives’, Paper presented at the 69th Annual Branch Conference of Environmental Health Australia, Sunshine Coast, 25 May 2009. 616. Quiggin, J. and Menezes, F. (2009), ‘Markets for influence’, Paper presented at ESAM09: Econometric Society Australasian Meeting, Canberra, 9 July. 617. Grant, S., Kline, J. and Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘A matter of interpretation: bargaining over ambiguous contracts’, Paper presented at ESAM09: Econometric Society Australasian Meeting, Canberra, 10 July. 618. Adamson, D. (2009), ‘Modelling regional irrigation impacts of climate change ‘, Paper presented to the 21st Conference of the Pacific Regional Science Conference Organisation (PRSCO ) on ‘Global Challenges — Regional Responses’, Gold Coast, 19–22 July. 619. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Cultivating an online community and the value for students’ Presentation (via video link) at the GLAM-WIKI Conference on ‘Galleries, libraries, archives, museums (GLAM) and Wikimedia: finding the common ground’ , Canberra, 6 August. 620. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Agriculture and global climate stabilisation’, Invited speaker at a plenary session on ‘Global Public Goods and 21st Century Agriculture’ at the 27th International Conference of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) on ‘The New Landscape of Global Agriculture’, Beijing, China, 19 August. 621. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘A matter of interpretation: bargaining over ambiguous contracts’, Paper presented at the Logic, Game Theory, and Social Choice 6 Conference, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan, 26 August. 622. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘The Australian economic landscape: how the financial services industry is faring’, Keynote presentation at the 2009 AATCU (Association of Australian Teachers’ Credit Unions) Conference on ‘Building Resilience’, Brisbane, 12 September. 623. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Ambiguity, the precautionary principle and climate change’ Paper presented to a Conference on ‘Ambiguity, Uncertainty and Climate

Change’ sponsored by the Climate and Energy Policy Institute, UC Berkeley Law School, University of California, Berkeley, 17 September. 624. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘After the crisis’, Paper presented to the 38th Australian Conference of Economists, Adelaide, 29 September. 625. Schrobback, P., Adamson, D., and Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Impact of ocean acidification on Australia’s Sydney Rock Oyster farming: a bio-economic model’, Paper presented at the 54th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Adelaide, 9–12 February. 626. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘An economist’s perspective on how cities of the future can become more sustainable’ to the ‘Cities of the Future’ workshop sponsored by Melbourne Water and the Water Services Association of Australia at the OzWater’10 Conference, Brisbane, 9 March. 627. Quiggin, J. (2010), on ‘Intergenerational equity, risk and climate modelling’, Invited Plenary paper presented at the Thirteenth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis on ‘Trade for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth and Development’, Penang, Malaysia, 11 June. 628. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Bounded rationality and the precautionary principle’, Paper presented at a semi-plenary session at the Foundations and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory (FUR XIV) International Conference, Newcastle University, Newcastle, England, 16 June. 629. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Risk, discounting and intergenerational equity’, Invited Plenary paper presented at the Copenhagen Conference on Risk and Time Preferences, sponsored by the Copenhagen Business School and the Center for the Economic Analysis of Risk (CEAR), Georgia State University, 21 June. 630. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Bounded rationality and the precautionary principle’, Paper presented at PET10, the Annual Conference of the Association for Public Economic Theory, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey, 25 June. 631. Grant, S., Kline, J. and Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘A matter of interpretation: bargaining over ambiguous contracts’, Paper presented at the Risk, Uncertainty and Decision (RUD) 2010 conference, Paris, France, 1 July. 632. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘The economics of climate change’, Invited Plenary Speaker at the Second International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 8–10 July. 633. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Climate change, climate variability and agriculture’, Invited

Plenary paper presented at the New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (NZARES) Conference, Nelson, New Zealand, 27 August. 634. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk Among Us’, Paper presented at the 39th Australian Conference of Economists, Sydney, 27 September. Presentations 635. Quiggin, J. (1999)'Privatisation and public ownership' at the IIR Conference on Evaluating Government Reform: Implications for Policy Directions, Rydges Hotel, Canberra. 636. Quiggin, J. (1999)'Privatisation and the government's reform agenda' at the IIR Conference on Evaluating Government Reform: Implications for Policy Directions, Rydges Hotel, Canberra. 637. Quiggin, J. (1999)'The impact of the GST on low income families, and on charitable organisations' at a meeting of the North Queensland Community Services Coalition, Townsville. 638. 'The effect of the GST on community organisations' at the '60 and Better Program State Conference, Eventide Home for the Aged, Charters Towers. 639. Quiggin, J. (1999)'The World Debt Jubilee :cancelling the Debts owed by the world's poorest countries ', sponsored by the University Ecumenical Group and Amnesty International, James Cook University, Townsville 640. Quiggin, J. (1999)The privatisation puzzle' to the Community Forum on 'Challenges of the New Millennium' sponsored by the North Queensland Left * ALP, Townsville. 641. Presentation of an address on 'Third World Debt', at a meeting of the parish of St James Cathedral, Townsville. 642. Quiggin, J. (1999)'Attracting investment and people to regional Australia' at the Australian Labor Party's Regional Development Forum, Rockhampton. 643. Quiggin, J. (1999) “Identifying the trends in policy development and government consultation to improve policy outcomes”, IIR Conference on Government Policy, Rydges Hotel, Canberra,18th July 1999. 644. 'The GST and accrual accounting' to the Supported Accomodation Assistance Program, CWA meeting room, Townsville. 645. Quiggin, J. (1999)Keynote address on 'Privatisation, nationalisation and the mixed economy' to the 28th Conference of Economists, La Trobe University,

Melbourne. 646. Quiggin, J. (2000)“Risk, discounting and the public sector”, Bureau of Transport Economics Transport Colloquium on ‘A Better Transport System for Australia: The Contribution of Research and Analysis’, Rydges Lakeside Hotel, Canberra, 27th November 2000. 647. Quiggin, J. (2000)“Demography and the New Economy”, Australian Population Association’s 10th Biennial Conference on ‘Population and Globalisation: Australia in the 21st Century’, Rydges Riverwalk Hotel, Melbourne, 29th November 2000 648. Quiggin, J. (2000) Globalisation, democracy and public prosperity. Don Dunstan Lecture, Don Dunstan Foundation and University of Adelaide, Adelaide, 23 February 2000. 649. Quiggin, J. (2000) Why Privatise?. Debate with Prof. Bob Officer , sponsored by the South Australian Branch of the Economic Society, Adelaide, 4 April 2000. 650. Quiggin, J. (2000)Asian property — playful kittens or wounded tigers. Property Council of Australia Congress 2000, Darwin, 11 July 2000. 651. Quiggin, J. (2001) Economic governance and microeconomic reform” , ‘Institutional Dynamics of Australian Economic Governance’ Symposium, School of Political Science and International Studies, University of Queensland, Marriott Hotel, Brisbane, February 15–16, 2001. 652. Quiggin, J. (2001)“Is the notion of community consultation genuine?”, Institute for International Research (IIR) Conference on ‘Community Engagement in the Public Sector’, Pavilion on Northbourne, Canberra, March 15–16, 2001. 653. Quiggin, J. (2001) “How can employment assistance achieve positive outcomes for disadvantaged job-seekers during economic downturns”, ACOSS and CEDA invitation-only seminar on ‘Riding the Roller-Coaster: the Role of Fiscal Policy in Easing Economic Downturns’, Canberra, May 14, 2001. 654. Quiggin, J. (2001) “National Competition Policy: the National Interest”, forum sponsored by the Economic Society (ACT Branch) and the National Institute for Governance, National Press Club, Canberra, May 15, 2001. 655. Quiggin, J. (2001) “Background risk under constant risk aversion”, 10th International Conference on the Foundations and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory, Faculty of Economics, University of Turin, 30th May–2nd June, 2001.

656. Quiggin, J. (2001) “Government-owned corporations in the marketplace: microeconomic issues”, One-Day Symposium sponsored by the Queensland Treasury and Griffith University on ‘Governing the Government-Owned Corporations’, Parliamentary Annex, Brisbane, 11th July, 2001 657. Quiggin, J. (2001) “Identifying the trends in Australian policy development and government consultation to improve policy outcomes”, IIR Conference on ‘Designing, Implementing and Evaluating Successful Government Policy’, Duxton Hotel, Wellington, NZ, October 23–24, 2001. 658. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Current trends in social democracy in europe’, Keynote speech given at the National Left Dinner of the National ALP Left/Trade Unions Conference on ‘Reinvigorating Labor’s Social Democratic Program’, Australian National University, Canberra, 11 May, 659. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Private–Public partnerships’, ALP Left Worker’s Club, Brisbane, 17 February, 660. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Australian state government revenues, collection and the australian experience with public–private partnerships’, Queensland Council of Unions Government Revenues and Services Forum, Customs House, Brisbane, 2 April, 661. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Queensland’s budget dilemma: The case for more tax revenue’, The Brisbane Institute, Customs House, Brisbane, 17 June, 662. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Globalisation and neoliberalism’, Workshop on the Benefits and Costs of Globalisation in the Asia–Pacific, Griffith Asia Pacific Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, 14 February, 663. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘The Australia–US free trade agreement’, Presentation to a Forum on ‘Evaluating free trade, and beyond: assessing trade prospects, impacts and practicalities in a time of free trade agreements’ hosted by the School of International Business, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 23 February, 664. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘The electricity crisis: What can be done?’, Presentation to a public forum held by the Don Dunstan Foundation, Adelaide, 20th April, 665. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘The recent fair trade agreement between the us and australia’, Guest lecture presented to the Australian Institute of International Affairs, Brisbane, 28th April, 666. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Infrastructure bonds’, Presentation to the Property Council,

Brisbane, 4th August, 667. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Infrastructure financing: Options and reality’, Presentation to the Property Council, Smart Transport and Property 2004: Leveraging Transport Infrastructure for Property and Land Use Development, hosted by the UQ Centre for Transport Strategy and Transport Roundtable Australasia Pty Ltd, Customs House, Brisbane, 668. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Risk, discounting and the evaluation of public investment projects’, Bureau of Transport and Resource Economics, 669. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Research funding and commercialisation’, Presentation to a public forum on ‘The future of University Research in Australia’, hosted by the UQ Research Staff Committee of the National Tertiary Education Union, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 5 August, 670. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Innovative taxation arrangements’, Presentation to the Financing Development Colloquium sponsored by the Foundation for Development Cooperation, Gold Coast, 14 August, 671. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘The pros and cons of the 2004-05 queensland state budget’, Presentation to the Brisbane Institute, Brisbane, 31 August, 672. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘How should we pay for pharmaceuticals?’, Presentation to the ACT Branch of the Economics Society of Australia, Canberra, 2 September, 673. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘Discount rates’, Presentation to a symposium on Cost– Benefit Analysis sponsored jointly by the ACT Branch of the Economic Society of Australia and the Australian Public Service Commission (APSC), Canberra, 3 September, 674. Quiggin, J. (2004), ‘The equity premium: Explanations and implications’, Presentation to the NSW Branch of the Economics Society of Australia,Sydney, 8 September, 675. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Government, market and citizen: From adam smith to peter beattie’, Presentation to the Institute of Public Administration (Qld Division) 2005 IPAA Four Seasons Seminar Series, Brisbane, 9th March, 676. Quiggin, J. (2005), ‘Consumers attitude to risk’, Presentation at the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s Roundtable on Consumers and Competition, Melbourne, 18th March, 677. Quiggin, John (2006), Presentation to the Australian Labor Party’s Inquiry into the Financing and Provision of Australian Infrastructure, Brisbane, 17 March.

678. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Consumption as a lifestyle choice’, Presentation to the Ideas Festival, presented by the Queensland Government and sponsored by Griffith University and the Brisbane Airport Corporation, Brisbane, 30th March. 679. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Who will serve?: who will be the worker of the future?’, Presentation to the Ideas Festival, presented by the Queensland Government and sponsored by Griffith University and the Brisbane Airport Corporation, Brisbane, 1 April. 680. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Gross National Happiness’, Presentation to the Ideas Festival, presented by the Queensland Government and sponsored by Griffith University and the Brisbane Airport Corporation, Brisbane, 2 April. 681. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘The non-economics of information’, Presentation to the CCI Researcher Symposium sponsored by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Creative Industries and Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 18 May. 682. Quiggin, John (2006), Presentation on ‘The economics of climate change: What will be the economic effects of climate change, and how much will it cost to do something about it?’, BEL Faculty Board Forum, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 7 June. 683. Quiggin, John (2006), Presentation on ‘Democratic media’ to the Students of Sustainability Conference, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 11 July. 684. Quiggin, John (2006), Presentation of opening welcome for a conference entitled ‘Road to where? The politics and practice of implementing welfare-to-work’, presented by the School of Social Work and Applied Human Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 17 July. 685. Quiggin, John (2006), Presentation of keynote address on ‘Economics and the environment’ to the UQ Economics Schools Day, Brisbane, 20 July. 686. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Can private–public partnerships be made to work?’ Paper presented to the University of Queensland/Australian Property Institute Property Conference, Customs House, Brisbane, 21 July. 687. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Economics: the hopeful science’, Presentation to BrisScience (Brisbane’s free monthly talks on science), Brisbane, 31 July. 688. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Responding to climate change in the Murray Darling Basin’, Presentation to the 9th International Riversymposium, Brisbane, 6 September.

689. Quiggin, John (2006), Presentation of the 27th Annual Archbishop Sir James Duhig Memorial Lecture on ‘The Cultural Development of Australian Society’, St Leo’s College Student Club, St Leo’s College, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 7 September. 690. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Complexity, climate change and the precautionary principle’, ARC Centre for Complex Systems Research Week Lecture, Brisbane, 18 September. 691. Quiggin, John (2006), Presentation on ‘How can the Greens economic policy mirror its social and environmental imperatives?’ at the Annual State Conference of the Greens (Qld), Brisbane, 30 September. 692. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘The National Water Crisis’, Presentation to the Forum for Economic Realism, Brisbane, 30 November. 693. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Megaprojects and risk: the Australian context’, Symposium on ‘Megaprojects and risk: achieving sustainable public and private outcomes’, hosted by Griffith University’s Urban Research Program, Brisbane, 1 December. 694. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘A state-contingent model of the Murraty–Darling Basin’, Presentation to a meeting of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Canberra, 4 December. 695. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘A state-contingent model of the Murraty–Darling Basin’, Presentation to a meeting of the CSIRO, Canberra, 5 December. 696. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘The economics of addressing chronic poverty in the community’, Panel discussion at the Development Colloquium on ‘Addressing Poverty: Pro-poor Growth and Financial Inclusion in Asia Pacific’, Canberra, 5 December. 697. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Marking up the Infrastructure Scorecard: Smart State’s development under the Office of Urban Management’, Phillips Fox Seminar Series Breakfast on 'Infrastructure Spending Scorecard’, hosted by the Property Council of Australia (Queensland Division), Brisbane, 10 October. 698. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Behavioral economics and modern decision theory’ , Presentattion paper to a Round Table Discussion on Challenges and Criteria for Behavioral Economists at the 12th International Conference on the Foundations and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory (FUR XII 2006), Rome, 25 June.

699. Adamson, David, Mallawaarachchi, Thilak and Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Climate change, water availability and adaption in the Murray-Darling Basin’, Presentation to the Pre-conference Policy Workshop On ‘Water Resources Policy’ at the 26th Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Gold Coast, 12 August. 700. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘The uncertain future of water policy in Australia’, Presentation to a meeting of the Productivity Commission, Canberra, 6 December. 701. Quiggin, John (2006), ‘Preparedness and overpreparedness’, Presentation to a mini-conference on Responsive Government: A Discussion of Contemporary Issues in Emergency Management, sponsored by the Queensland Department of Emergency Services, Brisbane, 11 December. 702. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Prevention, early intervention and the Smart State’, Presentation to the Queensland Council of Social Service (QCOSS) Conference on ‘Poverty, prosperity and progress: ensuring the inclusion of all Queenslanders’, Brisbane, 26 March. 703. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Can the family farm survive?’ Presentation to the SA Agribusiness Conference, Adelaide, 26 July. 704. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Thinking about climate change’, Presentation to the Australian Mensa Conference, Brisbane, 27 October. 705. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Urban water: markets and planning’, conference dinner presentation at the Australian Academy of Science’s 2007 Fenner Conference on the Environment on ‘Water, population and Australia’s urban future’, Canberra, 15 March. 706. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Anderson's idea of The Long Tail’, presentation to a joint research symposium on ‘Digital Literacy and Creative Innovation in a Knowledge Economy’, sponsored by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Creative Industries and Innovation (CCi), and the Cultural Research Network (CRN), Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 30 March. 707. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘The future of Federalism’, presentation (sponsored by the Evatt Foundation) to the Fringe Program at the ALP's 2007 National Conference, Sydney, 28 April. 708. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘What would life be like with an Australian emissions trading regime?’, presentation to the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) Queensland luncheon program, Brisbane, 9 May.

709. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Reason, interests and ideology in the climate change debate’, presentation to the Rationalist Society of Australia, Brisbane Chapter, Brisbane, 11 July. 710. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Climate change and the role of economists in developing appropriate policy responses’, presentation to the Economics Alumni’s Annual General Meeting, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 24 July. 711. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Global warming: consequences for small to medium businesses’, presentation to the CEO Institute, Brisbane, 1 August. 712. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘An energy exporter confronts climate change’, presentation to the Russia–Australia Business Forum co-hosted by the Honourable Peter Beattie MP, Queensland Premier and Minister for Trade, Queensland Parliament House, Brisbane, 5 September. 713. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Research with impact’, presentation to the BEL Faculty’s Research Colloquium, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 17 September. 714. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Emissions trading’, presentation to CS Energy, Brisbane, 28 September. 715. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Blogging and self-branding’, Presentation to Monthly MACS, ARC Cultural Research Network, Centre for Critical and Cultural Studies, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 12 October. 716. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘Coral reefs and the nascent economics of resilience’, Presentation to a National Forum on Coral Reef Futures sponsored by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Canberra, 18 October. 717. Quiggin, John (2007), ‘ Tackling climate change: a trade-off between living standards and the environment?, Don Dunstan Foundation project on Creating the Climate for Change, Adelaide, 26 July. 718. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘The costs of climate change’, Presentation to the Academy of Arts and Science, Brisbane, 6 March. 719. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘What is to be done? An exploration of the current political economy of Australia’, Presentation to the National Tertiary Education Union (NTEU) (Qld branch)/Worklife Forum, Brisbane, 13 March. 720. Adamson, D., Schrobback, P. and Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Options for managing salinity in the Murray–Darling Basin under reduced rainfall’, Presentation to the 2nd International Salinity Forum on ‘Salinity, Water and Society: Global Issues, Local Action’, Adelaide, 1 April.

721. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Adaptation and mitigation: the economics of climate change’, Videopresentation to the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society National Symposium on ‘Climate, Water and Adaptive Responses’, Adelaide, 23 May. 722. Quiggin, J. (2008), ‘Biodiversity–Economic Trade-offs: the case of the Murray– Darling Basin’, Presentation to The Ecology Centre, School of Integrative Biology, Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 27 June. 723. Adamson, David (2008), ‘Climate change implications for irrigation in Renmark’, Renmark Irrigation Trust, Renmark, 2 September. 724. Quiggin, J. (2008) Presentation to CS Energy on ‘Climate change: Australia and the rest of the world in the year 2020’, Brisbane, 15 September. 725. Quiggin, J. (2008) Presentation on ‘Climate change and the Murray–Darling Basin’ for the Research Week Federation Fellow’s Public Lecture, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 24 September. 726. Quiggin, J. (2008) Presentation on ‘The current financial crisis in the United States: What impact will a damaged US economy have on sustainable development?’ to a sustainability discussion group in the Advanced Water Management Centre, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 18 November. 727. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Will the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme drive a clean energy revolution?’, iGrid Intelligent Grid Forum on ‘Distributed Energy: Reducing Greenhouse Emissions Now’, sponsored by Ergon Energy and Energex, Brisbane, 7 April. 728. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Climate change, the new driver of innovation, technology, markets and economic growth: market and policy responses’, function jointly sponsored by the Economic Society of Australia and Economic Development Australia as part of Brisbane City Council's CitySmart Innovation Festival, 3 June. 729. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Climate change and the global financial crisis’, (by video conference), Victorian Branch of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Melbourne, 23 June. 730. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Unemployment: the coming crisis’, by videoconference to the panel ‘Global Financial Crisis: employment and recovery for working Australians’ at the ACTU Jobs Summit on ‘Pathways to Recovery’, Sydney, 20

July. 731. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Climate change and the Global Financial Crisis’, 2009 Annual Economic and Social Policy Public Lecture, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, 23 July. 732. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘New times, new approaches: exploring Australia’s economic options’, Session 3 of ‘Getting to Grips with the Economy’, a public information series presented by the Whitlam Institute and the School of Economics and Finance, University of Western Sydney, Sydney, 23 July. 733. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Climate change and coral reefs: adaptation, offsets and resilience’, session on ‘People and economies’ at the Brisbane Symposium on ‘Securing Coral Reef Futures: linking ecosystems, societies and economies’, sponsored by the ARC Centre of Excellence, Coral Reef Studies, Brisbane, 7 August. 734. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘The interaction between urban and rural water use’, CEDA (Committee for the Economic Development of Australia) Trustee Discussion Forum on ‘A Water Strategy for Australia’, Brisbane, 10 September. 735. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Beyond the economic crisis: alternatives to market liberalism’, Public Lecture, Don Dunstan Foundation, Adelaide, 29 September. 736. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘Will the current proposed ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) be effective?’, Emissions Trading Forum hosted by the UQ Greens, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 13 October. 737. Quiggin, J. (2009), ‘The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’, UQ Young Scholars Program, Office of Prospective Students and Scholarships, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 2 December. 738. Quiggin, J. (2009), Presentation on ‘Energy water and sustainable cities’ to the 2nd U21 International Multidisciplinary Conference for Graduate Research Students, Sustainable Cities for the Future, Brisbane, 4 December. 739. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Sovereign risk and global regulation’ to the Centre for Investor Education Major Market Players Meeting on Australia’s Pivotal Positioning, Coolum, Sunshine Coast, 30 August. 740. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Zombie Economics: How dead ideas still walk among us’, Presentation of a Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines (STICERD) Public Lecture, London School of Economics, London, 25 November.

741. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Zombie Economics (Dangerous Ideas)’ at the Festival of Dangerous Ideas, Sydney, 2 October. 742. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Where is South-east Queensland going? Implications for water supply’ to SEQWater, Brisbane, 19 October. 743. Quiggin, J. (2010), ‘Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk Among Us, Presentation of the Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines (STICERD) Public Lecture, London School of Economics, London, 25 November. Newspaper Articles 744. Robinson, M., and Quiggin, J., (1978), ‘Where's Labor going now ?’, Nation Review, 1–7 Sep. 745. Robinson, M., and Quiggin, J., (1979), ‘Plagiarising the Fin Review’, Nation Review, 1 Feb. 746. Quiggin, J., (1992), ‘Fightback without the Food Tax’, Australian Financial Review, 12 December. 747. Quiggin, J., (1993), ‘The case for a jobs levy instead of following the US’, Australian Financial Review, 15 Dec. 748. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Don't put all our eggs in the micro-reform basket’, The Australian, Jan. 749. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Sacrifices needed to beat the jobs crisis’, Canberra Times, 4 Jan. 750. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘$6.5 bn sum as illusory as commitment to jobs’, Australian Financial Review, May 6 . 751. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Why the number is up for the budget deficit’, Australian Financial Review, 10 May. 752. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Community services the key to more jobs’, The Canberra Times, 14 Jun. 753. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘A fresh vision of our assets will be of greater service’, Australian Financial Review, 15 Jun. 754. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Tariff misunderstandings’, Australian Financial Review, 22 Jun. 755. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Will rational bubbles fall on the infallible markets ?’, Australian Financial Review, 24 Jun .

756. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Time to revitalise the public sector’, The Canberra Times, 6 Jul. 757. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Be wary of the micro dynamic gains thesis’, Australian Financial Review, 8 Jul. 758. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘High unemployment here to stay’, Australian Financial Review, 11 Jul. 759. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Slaves to the bond markets’, Australian Financial Review, 25 Jul. 760. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Why selling assets will not pay’, Australian Financial Review, 29 Aug. 761. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘NZ shows labour reform may not be so ideal’, Australian Financial Review, Sep 22 . 762. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Airport sale will see fares climb’, The Australian, Sep 28 . 763. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Policy assumptions causing health woes’, The Canberra Times, 28 September. 764. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Real benefits of privatisation not so rosy’, The Canberra Times, 3 Oct. 765. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Unemployment solution only modestly taxing’, The Australian, 13 Oct. 766. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Increase taxes and kill off the last sacred cow’, Australian Financial Review, 1 Nov. 767. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Expanding knowledge clarifies contracting out’, Australian Financial Review, 18 Nov. 768. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Public pays price for private infrastructure’, The Age, Melbourne, Nov 22 . 769. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Military’s role of ‘projecting influence’ not worth the cost’, The Australian, 29 Nov. 770. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Taxing ingenuity of economic thinkers’, Australian Financial Review, Dec 9 . 771. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Tax increases to fund employment growth’, Sydney Morning Herald, 5 Dec. 772. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Fahey may pay for tax cuts’, Sydney Morning Herald, 5 Dec. 773. Quiggin, J., (1994), ‘Taxation: the reforms a strong prime minister would

impose’, The Australian, 27 Dec. 774. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘Jobless must be taken off policy back burner’, The Canberra Times, 7 Jan. 775. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘Carbon tax could make more jobs’, Australian Financial Review, 23 Jan. 776. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘The real rate of NZ growth’, Australian Financial Review, 7 February. 777. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘How modest increases could fund a program that works’, Australian Financial Review, 8 Feb. 778. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘Myths of the carbon tax debate’, Australian Financial Review, 14 February. 779. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘The clever country: not so smart then, even less so now’, Sydney Morning Herald, 10 March. 780. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘NZ's economic performance is far worse than Australia’s’, National Business Review (NZ), 10 March. 781. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘Categories set up hurdle in savings debate’, Australian Financial Review, 20 March. 782. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘Making sense of rationalism’, The Canberra Times, 3 April. 783. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘From quango to qango and back again’, Sydney Morning Herald, 7 April. 784. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Hilmer reforms pose real problems for State revenue’, Sydney Morning Herald, April 11. 785. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘A decade of minimal growth and high unemployment’, Australian Financial Review, 24 April. 786. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘Two varieties of Budget deficit even before the smoke, mirrors’, Australian Financial Review, 9 May. 787. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘Zero debt may leave the State worse off’, Townsville Bulletin, 24 May. 788. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘The case for increased taxes’, The Australian, 22 June. 789. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘The unacceptable legacy of Thatcherite economics’, Sydney Morning Herald, 27 June. 790. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘Sinking feeling over floats’, Canberra Times, 10 July. 791. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘A sting in this tale of successful reform’, The Australian, 4

August. 792. Quiggin, J. (1995), ‘Homespun truths about house prices’, The Australian, 19 September. 793. Quiggin, J., (1995), ‘For whom the road tolls’, Sydney Morning Herald, 19 October. 794. Quiggin, J., (1996), ‘Pay TV's wasted billions’, Australian Financial Review, 8 January. 795. Quiggin, J., (1996), ‘The high price of privatisation’, Australian Financial Review, February. 796. Quiggin, J., (1996), ‘When two reformers face off’, Australian Financial Review, 26 February. 797. Quiggin, J., (1996), ‘Kennett capitalises on guilt-edged insecurities’, Australian Financial Review, 25 March. 798. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Trivialities overshadowing the real problems’, Australian Financial Review, 19 April. 799. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Hiding the jobless is a numbers game’, «Australian Financial Review», 1 May. 800. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘GST not such a bad idea’, Australian Financial Review, May 28. 801. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Commonwealth must take responsibility for services’, Australian Financial Review, 8 August. 802. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Rubbery figures shape black hole’, Australian Financial Review, 25 June. 803. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘'Black hole' is pivot on which strategy turns’, Australian Financial Review, 20 August. 804. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Theory time over, turn that tough talk into action’, Australian Financial Review, 22 August. 805. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Micro gains for micro reform’, Australian Financial Review, 17 September. 806. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Jobless rate still on track’, Australian Financial Review, 30 September. 807. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Reforms finally under poll spotlight’, Australian Financial Review, 11 October.

808. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Greenhouse gas sums don't add up’, Australian Financial Review, 17 December. 809. Quiggin, J. (1996), ‘Truth blunts the tigers' teeth’, Australian Financial Review, 9 December. 810. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Labor's dilemma on Telstra’, Australian Financial Review, 31 January. 811. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Wrong problem, wrong answer’, Australian Financial Review, 19 February. 812. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘How cable tied profits in knots’, Australian Financial Review, 26 March. 813. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘A relationship taken on trust’, Australian Financial Review, 16 April. 814. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Confusion in budget policy’, Australian Financial Review, 12 May. 815. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Micro benefits of reform’, Australian Financial Review, 18 June. 816. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Low wage figures don't add up’, Australian Financial Review, 5 August. 817. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘GST claims fail taxing scrutiny’, Australian Financial Review, 21 August. 818. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘The real economic illiterates’, Australian Financial Review, 18 September. 819. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘New Zealand's economic myth’, Australian Financial Review, 26 September. 820. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Aussie Airlines' dog fight’, Australian Financial Review, 9 October. 821. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘A hard job of creating work’, Australian Financial Review, 14 November. 822. Quiggin, J. (1997), ‘Privatisation misgivings’, Australian Financial Review, 28 Nov. 823. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘A lesson for micro-economists’, The Australian Financial Review, January 2. 824. Quiggin, J. (1998), 'Labor right to reject reform', The Australian Financial

Review, January 22. 825. Quiggin, J. (1998), 'Perils of waterfront reform', The Australian Financial Review, January 29.

826. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Failure of phone competition’, The Australian Financial Review, February 19. 827. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Telstra float sounds too good’, The Australian Financial Review, March 19. 828. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Three cheers for CD policy’, The Australian Financial Review, April 23. 829. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘There's no new zeal and zest’, The Australian Financial Review, May 7. 830. Quiggin, J., (1998), ‘Not doomed without a GST’, Australian Financial Review, 4 June. 831. Quiggin, J., (1998), ‘Competition policy the chief culprit’, Australian Financial Review, 18 June. 832. Quiggin, J., (1998), ‘Fallacies of privatisation’, Australian Financial Review, 2 July. 833. Quiggin, J., (1998), ‘Keynesian economics lessons’, Australian Financial Review, 16 July. 834. Quiggin, J., (1998), ‘Give us back our phones’, Australian Financial Review, 30 July. 835. Quiggin, J., (1998), ‘Tax pledges built on a sham’, Australian Financial Review, 13 August. 836. Quiggin, J., ‘Perils of privatisation in Tasmania’, Australian Financial Review, Thursday August 27. 837. Quiggin, J., (1998), ‘Zig-zags and backflips’, Adelaide Voices, August- September. 838. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘ALP needs a clear message’, Australian Financial Review, September 10. 839. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Death of Menzies' coalition’, Australian Financial Review, September 24. 840. 498. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Poll swings and roundabouts’, Australian Financial Review, October 8.

841. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘The case for a speculation tax’, Australian Financial Review, October 22. 842. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Y2K's nasty legal side effects’, Australian Financial Review, November 5. 843. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Food for thought about tax reform debate’, Australian Financial Review, 19 November. 844. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘It could be a food fight’, Australian Financial Review, 3 December. 845. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Invalid arguments over privatisation’, Australian Financial Review, 17 December. 846. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Economic rationalists are not so bad’, Australian Financial Review, 30 December. 847. Quiggin, J. (1998), ‘Few answers to micro-economic's mysteries’, Australian Financial Review, 14 January. 848. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Virtuous circle snares Asia’, Australian Financial Review, 28 January. 849. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Nice target, shame about the tax package’, Australian Financial Review, 11 February. 850. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘The truth and the myth of globalisation’, Australian Financial Review, 25 February. 851. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Privatisation an unsalable mess’, Australian Financial Review, 11 March. 852. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Globalisation mocks open skies policy’, Australian Financial Review, 25 March. 853. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Don't overrate e-commerce’, Australian Financial Review, 8 April. 854. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Challenging orthodoxy in the battle for sustained growth’, Australian Financial Review, 16 April. 855. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Labor missed GST boat’, Australian Financial Review, 22 April. 856. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Puzzling analysis from the free-market camp’, Australian Financial Review, 6 May._ 857. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Looking back to the future, it's time to consolidate’,

Australian Financial Review, 13 May. 858. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Crossed wires in the privatisation debate’, Australian Financial Review, 17 May. 859. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Forget the GST and focus on the real issues’, Australian Financial Review, 20 May. 860. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Neo-liberalism has failed to live up to its promises’, Australian Financial Review, 3 June. 861. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘The pros and cons of labelling are food for thought’, Australian Financial Review, 17 June. 862. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Getting your head around predictions’, Australian Financial Review, 1 July. 863. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Exposing the myth of the productivity 'miracle'’, Australian Financial Review, 15 July. 864. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Gambling inquiry unmasks human face of economics’, Australian Financial Review, 29 July. 865. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Tackling reform with care’, Australian Financial Review, 5 August. 866. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Privatisation: who gains?’, Australian Financial Review, 19 August. 867. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Y2K bug may never bite’, Australian Financial Review, 2 September. 868. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Cures for the jobless plague’, Australian Financial Review, 16 September. 869. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘ANTS should be exterminated’, Australian Financial Review, 30 September. 870. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘The force is not with us’, Australian Financial Review, 14 October. 871. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘US shows plenty of options for creative accounting’, Australian Financial Review, 28 October. 872. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Microsoft deserves a hard time’, Australian Financial Review, 11 November. 873. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Slow learners of classroom lessons’, Australian Financial Review, 25 November.

874. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Who's afraid of audience participation’, Australian Financial Review, 26 November. 875. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Change long overdue in New Zealand’, Australian Financial Review, 2 December. 876. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Global advocates were out of this world’, Australian Financial Review, 16 December. 877. Quiggin, J. (1999), ‘Panic merchants owe us a bottle’, Australian Financial Review, 30 December. 878. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘It seems anything's possible, virtually’, Australian Financial Review, 13 January. 879. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Beware uncooked chooks’, Australian Financial Review, 27 January. 880. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘America's long hours don't work’, Australian Financial Review, 10 February. 881. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Attitude is still bugging us’, Australian Financial Review, 29 February. 882. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘We simply don't want proposed tax cuts’, Australian Financial Review, 16 March. 883. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Foot in each camp untenable for Telstra’, Australian Financial Review, 30 March. 884. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Rent-seeking industry alive and kicking’, Australian Financial Review, 13 April. 885. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Long-exploded fallacies of privatisation’, Australian Financial Review, 4 May. 886. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Honestly, the sums don't add up’, Australian Financial Review, 11 May. 887. Quiggin, J. (2000), Europe shatters myth of Blair's Britain, Australian Financial Review, 25 May. 888. Quiggin, J. (2000), Cards on the tableau just lead us to tax confusion, Australian Financial Review, 8 June. 889. Quiggin, J. (2000), The tax dodge won't die, Australian Financial Review, 22 June. 890. Quiggin, J. (2000), Head in the sand on unemployment, Australian Financial

Review, 6 July. 891. Quiggin, J. (2000), Expanding might of military would be costly folly, Australian Financial Review, 20 July. 892. Quiggin, J. (2000), How to strangle education, Australian Financial Review, 3 August. 893. Quiggin, J. (2000), Look back in trepidation, Australian Financial Review, 17 August. 894. Quiggin, J. (2000), Applaud more parallel importing, Australian Financial Review, 31 August. 895. Quiggin, J. (2000), Time to stem Telstra's loss to taxpayers, Australian Financial Review, 14 September. 896. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘A good way out for Labor’, Australian Financial Review, 12 October. 897. Quiggin, J. (2000), The heat is on in global warming debate, Australian Financial Review, 28 September. 898. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Decline and gall of the class warriors’, Australian Financial Review, 26 October. 899. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘The end of the generation game’, Australian Financial Review, Re|view Section, 27 October. 900. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘What a Bush win would mean for the $A’, Australian Financial Review, 9 November . 901. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Laugh, but just you wait’, Australian Financial Review, 23 November. 902. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘E-mails eclipse net gains’, Australian Financial Review, 7 December2000. 903. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘A bug meets its day of judgement’, Australian Financial Review, 29 December 2000–1 Jan 2001. 904. Quiggin, J. (2000), ‘Florida's debacle has lessons for Australia’, Australian Financial Review, 21 December 2000. 905. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Hardly free marketeers’, Australian Financial Review, 4 January 2001. 906. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Cold call for US economy’, Australian Financial Review, 18 January 2001.

907. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘An offence to the free market’, Australian Financial Review, 1 February. 908. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Golden age myth exposed’, Australian Financial Review, 15 February. 909. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘At last, Keating era ends’, Australian Financial Review, 1 March. 910. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘When hypocrisy is the drug of choice’, Australian Financial Review, 2 March. 911. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Time for the mother of all backflips’, Australian Financial Review, 15 March. 912. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘US dollar needs a pasting’, Australian Financial Review, 29 March. 913. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Wishful thinking of Walsh's true believers’, Australian Financial Review, 11 April. 914. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘No quick fix for Japan’, Australian Financial Review, 26 April. 915. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Conservatism lost to Libs’, Australian Financial Review, 10 May. 916. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Labor must regain moral ground’, Australian Financial Review, 24 May. 917. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Taking stock in the branch office economy’, Australian Financial Review, 1 June. 918. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Blair's Third Way is dead’, Australian Financial Review, 7 June. 919. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘US economic bubble frees noxious gas’, Australian Financial Review, 21 June. 920. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘GST war won at too great a cost’, Australian Financial Review, 5 July. 921. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Right-wing sceptics on call’, Australian Financial Review, 19 July. 922. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Voters not blinded by political jousting’, Australian Financial Review, 2 August. 923. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Who's being Liberal with labour market statistics?’,

Australian Financial Review, 16 August. 924. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Competition policy takes a nosedive’, Australian Financial Review, 14 September. 925. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Using charity to cut costs’, Australian Financial Review, 6 September. 926. 584 472. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘The state of welfare at home and abroad’, Australian Financial Review, 14 September. 927. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Competition policy takes a nosedive’, Australian Financial Review, 14 September. 928. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Free speech sits ill with a free market’, Australian Financial Review, 27 September. 929. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘US shows required spirit ’, Australian Financial Review, 4 October. 930. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Public ownership makes a comeback’, Australian Financial Review, 25 October. 931. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘NZ Labour shows a way’, Australian Financial Review, 22 November. 932. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Regrets, we'll have a few’, Australian Financial Review, 8 November. 933. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘NZ Labour shows a way’, Australian Financial Review, 22 November. 934. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Productivity isn't working’, Australian Financial Review, 6 December. 935. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Lies and statistics’, Australian Financial Review, 15 December. 936. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘Reforms fail to set world alight’, Australian Financial Review, 20 December. 937. Quiggin, J. (2001), ‘The dirty business of spy versus spy’, Australian Financial Review, 21 December. 938. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘When pessimism paid off’, Australian Financial Review, 3 January. 939. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Euro curbs herd instinct’, Australian Financial Review, 17 January.

940. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Poverty is such a rich issue’, Australian Financial Review, 31 January. 941. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Pop! There goes a trillion’, Australian Financial Review, 14 February. 942. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Enron's Australian cousins’, Australian Financial Review, 28 February. 943. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Dogma fails crucial test’, Australian Financial Review, 14 March. 944. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Bogus science to book ’, Australian Financial Review, 27 March. 945. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘The cost of doing nothing’, Australian Financial Review, 11 April. 946. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘UK turns left for national health’, Australian Financial Review, 24 April. 947. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Stick to a few principles’, Australian Financial Review, 9 May. 948. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Time to earth electricity’, Australian Financial Review, 23 May. 949. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Even the old is new again’, Australian Financial Review, 6 June. 950. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Crossed wires on Telstra’, Australian Financial Review, 20 June. 951. Quiggin, J. (2002). Market theory unravels, Australian Financial Review, 4 July. 952. Quiggin, J. (2002). Bush leads way on race, Australian Financial Review, 18 July. 953. Quiggin, J. (2002) Sums starting to sink in. Australian Financial Review 1 August 954. Quiggin, J. (2002) Miracles are highly priced. Australian Financial Review 15 August 955. Quiggin, J. (2002) Savings need a safety net. Australian Financial Review 29 August 956. Quiggin, J. (2002) Sums starting to sink in. Australian Financial Review 1 August

957. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘On the wrong track: hard-learned lessons’, The Public Sector Informant, August. 958. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Unemployment on the rise’, Australian Financial Review, 12 September. 959. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘Breaking the camel's back’, Australian Financial Review, 26 September. 960. Quiggin, J. (2002), ‘A case for equity partners’, Australian Financial Review, 10 October. 961. Quiggin, J. (2002), APEC is simply a sideshow, Australian Financial Review, 24 October. 962. Quiggin, J. (2002), The real cost of regime change, Australian Financial Review, 7 November. 963. Quiggin, J. (2002), Spending a way to victory, Australian Financial Review, 21 November. 964. Quiggin, J. (2002), Voters need real difference, Australian Financial Review, 5 December. 965. Quiggin, J. (2002), The best case for Telstra, Australian Financial Review, 19 December. 966. Quiggin, J. (2003), The economic year ahead, Australian Financial Review, 2 January. 967. Quiggin, J. (2003), Our worst policy failure, Australian Financial Review, 16 January. 968. Quiggin, J. (2003), A deal not in our interest, Australian Financial Review, 30 January. 969. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘No alternative for Telstra’, Australian Financial Review, 13 February. 970. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Being AAA is not the top’, Australian Financial Review, 27 February. 971. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Adventures in the blogosphere’, Australian Financial Review, 7 March. 972. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘US debt will come back to bite’, Australian Financial Review, 13 March. 973. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Raised voices just comical’, Australian Financial Review, 27

March. 974. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘'Fairy gold' turns to debt’, Australian Financial Review, 10 April. 975. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Why war is bad for health’, Australian Financial Review, 8 May. 976. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Voters favour better services’, Australian Financial Review, 22 May. 977. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Let's stick to a good thing’, Australian Financial Review, 5 June. 978. Quiggin, J. (2003), ‘Insurance for house prices’, Australian Financial Review, 19 June. 979. Quiggin, J. (2003) Putting HECS to good use, Australian Financial Review, 3 July. 980. Quiggin, J. (2003) Stuck in the comfort zone, Australian Financial Review, 17 July. 981. Quiggin, J. (2003) Woolly thinking on Telstra, Australian Financial Review, 31 July. 982. Quiggin, J. (2003) A risky interpretation of history: on the past, present and future of the quest for security, Australian Financial Review, 1 August. 983. Quiggin, J. (2003) Interesting time for rates, Australian Financial Review, 14 August. 984. Quiggin, J. (2003) Real jobs the real solution, Australian Financial Review, 28 August. 985. Quiggin, J. (2003) Bush's buck won't stop, Australian Financial Review, 11 September. 986. Quiggin, J. (2003) Lots of froth about bubble, Australian Financial Review, 25 September. 987. Quiggin, J. (2003) Kyoto a conduit for aid, Australian Financial Review, 9 October. 988. Quiggin, J. (2003) Lets clear muddy waters, Australian Financial Review, 23 Octobe 989. Quiggin, J. (2003), Our model constitution, Australian Financial Review,6 November.

990. Quiggin, J. (2003), Reform for the small-minded, Australian Financial Review,20 November. 991. Quiggin, J. (2003), Insurance for house prices, Australian Financial Review, 19 June. 992. Quiggin, J. (2003), FTA: fair deal or no deal, Australian Financial Review,4 December. 993. Quiggin, J. (2003), 'Conflict' isn't ageing well, Australian Financial Review,18 December. 994. Quiggin, J. (2003), US hegemonic, not imperial, Australian Financial Review,31 December. 995. Quiggin, J. (2004), Bonds the key to balance, Australian Financial Review,15 January. 996. Quiggin, J. (2004), States schooled for success, Australian Financial Review,29 January. 997. Quiggin, J. (2004), Merger is the only chance, Australian Financial Review, p. 70,12 February. 998. Quiggin, J. (2004), Health, education the key, Australian Financial Review, p. 70,26 February. 999. Quiggin, J. (2004), Don't just stop at hospitals, Australian Financial Review, p. 78,11 March. 1000. Quiggin, J. (2004), Older workers forced out, Australian Financial Review, p. 78,25 March. 1001. Quiggin, J. (2004), Don't believe in miracles, Australian Financial Review, p. 62,22 April. 1002. Quiggin, J. (2004), Downside of the FTA, Australian Financial Review, p. 70,6 May. 1003. Quiggin, J. (2004), Creep claques silly figures, Australian Financial Review, p. 70,20 May. 1004. Quiggin, J. (2004), Watershed solution needed, Australian Financial Review, p. 62,3 June. 1005. Quiggin, J. (2004), Jobless still cast shadow, Australian Financial Review, p. 70,17 June. 1006. Quiggin, J. (2004), Fine fix for taxing issue, Australian Financial Review, p. 62,1

July. 1007. Quiggin, J. (2004), Latham's next great leap, Australian Financial Review, p. 62,15 July. 1008. Quiggin, J. (2004), Don't fear a Greens senate, Australian Financial Review, p. 62,29 July. 1009. Quiggin, J. (2004), Doubters warm to detail, Australian Financial Review, p. 62,12 August. 1010. Quiggin, J. (2004), The myth of convergence: on how the rise of the internet has liberated text, Australian Financial Review, Review, p.4, p.11.,13 August. 1011. Quiggin, J. (2004), Labor must stand firm, Australian Financial Review, p. 62,26 August. 1012. Quiggin, J. (2004), Demonising the Greens, Australian Financial Review, p. 62,9 September. 1013. Quiggin, J. (2004), An exercise in risk management: on what to be scared of and what to do about it, Australian Financial Review, Review, pp.8–9.,10 September. 1014. Quiggin, J. (2004), An exercise in risk management: On what to be scared of and what to do about it, Australian Financial Review, 10 September. 1015. Quiggin, J. (2004), Time to recast health roles, Australian Financial Review, 23 September. 1016. Quiggin, J. (2004), 'Tax and spend' is back, Australian Financial Review, 07 October. 1017. Quiggin, J. (2004), Productivity's miraculous mirage, Australian Financial Review, 18 October. 1018. Quiggin, J. (2004), T3 must focus on public, Australian Financial Review, 21 October. 1019. Quiggin, J. (2004), Tough one for the winner, Australian Financial Review, 04 November. 1020. Quiggin, J. (2004), And now for the hard bit (ran in earlier editions as tough one for the winner), Australian Financial Review, 4 November. 1021. Quiggin, J. (2004), Globalisation and other shibboleths, Australian Financial Review, 5 November. 1022. Quiggin, J. (2004), No reserve for rainy days, Australian Financial Review, 18 November.

1023. Quiggin, J. (2004), Us productivity's underbelly, Australian Financial Review, 29 November. 1024. Quiggin, J. (2004), Kyoto must be ratified now, Australian Financial Review, 02 December. 1025. Quiggin, J. (2004), Hard partnership lessons, Australian Financial Review, 16 December. 1026. Quiggin, J. (2005), Dog's bark will bite deep, Australian Financial Review, 13 January. 1027. Quiggin, J. (2005), A licence to innovate, Australian Financial Review, 27 January. 1028. Quiggin, J. (2005), Mirages don't win polls, Australian Financial Review, 10 February. 1029. Quiggin, J. (2005), Top tax rate, low priority, Australian Financial Review, 24 February. 1030. Quiggin, J. (2005), Here's fuel for thought, Australian Financial Review, 31 March. 1031. Quiggin, J. (2005), Policy inertia hang-up, Australian Financial Review, 14 April. 1032. Quiggin, J. (2005), Nuclear option premature, Australian Financial Review, 28 April. 1033. Quiggin, J. (2005), Rogue economics, Australian Financial Review, 6 May. 1034. Quiggin, J. (2005), Growing pains of social security, Australian Financial Review, 9 May. 1035. Quiggin, J. (2005), More to life than tax cuts, Australian Financial Review, 12 May. 1036. Quiggin, J. (2005), Co-operative spirit runs dry, Australian Financial Review, 26 May. 1037. Quiggin, J. (2005), Another grandiose flop, Australian Financial Review, 9 June. 1038. Quiggin, J. (2005), A bad case of consumption, Australian Financial Review, 23 June. 1039. Quiggin, J. (2005), Water dilemma flows on, Australian Financial Review, 7 July. 1040. Quiggin, J. (2005), Property boom puts theory to test, Australian Financial

Review, 11 July. 1041. Quiggin, J. (2005), Lawsuits a straitjacket, Australian Financial Review, 21 July. 1042. Quiggin, J. (2005), T3 will be another disaster, Australian Financial Review, 4 August. 1043. Quiggin, J. (2005), New rationale, same old problems, Australian Financial Review, 8 August. 1044. Quiggin, J. (2005), There's no sense in saving, Australian Financial Review, 18 August. 1045. Quiggin, J. (2005), Let a hundred blogs bloom, Australian Financial Review, 1 September. 1046. Quiggin, J. (2005), No win in monopoly game, Australian Financial Review, 15 September. 1047. Quiggin, J. (2005), Bring in congestion tax, Australian Financial Review, 29 September. 1048. Quiggin, J. (2005), Don't hide behind economy, Australian Financial Review, 13 October. 1049. Quiggin, J. (2005), Open slather on the net, Australian Financial Review, 27 October. 1050. Quiggin, J. (2005), The surge we didn't have, Australian Financial Review, 10 November. 1051. Quiggin, J. (2005), Hung up over party line, Australian Financial Review, 24 November. 1052. Quiggin, J. (2005), The monopoly game, Australian Financial Review, 28 November. 1053. Quiggin, J. (2005), A call to foster growth, Australian Financial Review, 8 December. 1054. Quiggin, J. (2005), Bad choices for work, Australian Financial Review, 12 December. 1055. Quiggin, J. (2006), Environmental evolution, Australian Financial Review, 5 January. 1056. Quiggin, J. (2006), TV policy a grim picture, Australian Financial Review, 19 January. 1057. Quiggin, J. (2006), Asleep on the jobs growth, Australian Financial Review, 16

February. 1058. Quiggin, J. (2006), Crude awakening, Australian Financial Review, 24 February. 1059. Quiggin, J. (2006), Resigned to the status quo, Australian Financial Review, 2 March. 1060. Quiggin, J. (2006), Public missing out, again, Australian Financial Review, 16 March. 1061. Quiggin, J. (2006), Healthy dose of growth, Australian Financial Review, 30 March. 1062. Quiggin, J. (2006), War on science, Australian Financial Review, 7 April. 1063. Quiggin, J. (2006), Water rules won't wash, Australian Financial Review, 20 April. 1064. Quiggin, J. (2006), No room to manoeuvre, Australian Financial Review, 27 April. 1065. Quiggin, J. (2006), Budget manages to hold the line, Australian Financial Review, 15 May. 1066. Quiggin, J. (2006), Pricing a change of climate, Australian Financial Review, 25 May. 1067. Quiggin, J. (2006), Public debt a useful instrument, Australian Financial Review, 8 June. 1068. Quiggin, J. (2006), When co-operation trumps competition, Australian Financial Review, 16 June. 1069. Quiggin, J. (2006), Taking Iceland's hot tip, Australian Financial Review, 22 June. 1070. Quiggin, J. (2006), Climate denial has had its day, Australian Financial Review, 6 July. 1071. Quiggin, J. (2006), Add to cv: Bankruptcy, Australian Financial Review, 20 July. 1072. Quiggin, J. (2006), Doors shut for young families, Australian Financial Review, 3 August. 1073. Quiggin, J. (2006), Make Telstra public again, Australian Financial Review, 17 August. 1074. Quiggin, J. (2006), Let's commit to the young, Australian Financial Review, 31 August. 1075. Quiggin, J. (2006), The party of no return, Australian Financial Review, 14

September. 1076. Quiggin, J. (2006), Cheap water's high costs, Australian Financial Review, 28 September. 1077. Quiggin, J. (2006), Pay attention: There's a cost, Australian Financial Review, 12 October. 1078. Quiggin, J. (2006), Iraq exit will also be costly, Australian Financial Review, 26 October. 1079. Quiggin, J. (2006), Protecting our interests, Australian Financial Review, 9 November. 1080. Quiggin, J. and Farrell, H. (2006), More than the sum of its parts, Australian Financial Review, 10 November. 1081. Quiggin, J. (2006), A question of probability, Australian Financial Review, 23 November. 1082. Quiggin, J. (2006), Family farms alive and well, Australian Financial Review, 07 December. 1083. Quiggin, J. (2006), Ready, get set, go dither, Australian Financial Review, 21 December. 1084. Quiggin, J. (2007), Handling those global-warming hot potatoes, Australian Financial Review, 6. 1085. Quiggin, J. (2007), War: Deadly game for losers, Australian Financial Review, 18 January. 1086. Quiggin, J. (2007), Water remedy clear as mud, Australian Financial Review, 1 February. 1087. Quiggin, J. (2007), Hot heads won't save us, Australian Financial Review, 15 February. 1088. Quiggin, J. (2007), Pooh to copyright wrongs, Australian Financial Review, 1 March. 1089. Quiggin, J. (2007), Still, life's not bad here, Australian Financial Review, 15 March. 1090. Quiggin, J. (2007), Denial lobby strikes again, Australian Financial Review, 29 March. 1091. Quiggin, J. (2007), No discount on equality, Australian Financial Review, 12 April.

1092. Quiggin, J. (2007), Perhaps a rational solution, Australian Financial Review, 26 April. 1093. Quiggin, J. (2007), Climate right for the next big idea, Australian Financial Review, 10 May. 1094. Quiggin, J. (2007), The three Ps for politicans, Australian Financial Review, 24 May. 1095. Quiggin, J. (2007), Real danger in solo action, Australian Financial Review, 7 June. 1096. Quiggin, J. (2007), Infrastructure time bombs, Australian Financial Review, 21 June. 1097. Quiggin, J. (2007), Old policies, loudly restated, Australian Financial Review, 5 July. 1098. Quiggin, J. (2007), Tax reform the way to go, Australian Financial Review, 19 July. 1099. Quiggin, J. (2007), Sub-prime no threat, so far, Australian Financial Review, 2 August. 1100. Quiggin, J. (2007), Denial industry in full cry, Australian Financial Review, 16 August. 1101. Quiggin, J. (2007), Beware the PPP pitfalls, Australian Financial Review, 30 August. 1102. Quiggin, J. (2007), Time for PM to backflip, Australian Financial Review, 13 September. 1103. Quiggin, J. (2007), A lot hangs in the balance, Australian Financial Review, 27 September. 1104. Quiggin, J. (2007), Fixed terms make sense, Australian Financial Review, 11 October. 1105. Quiggin, J. (2007), Commitment cuts too deep, Australian Financial Review, 25 October. 1106. Quiggin, J. (2007), Trick is managing a soft landing, Australian Financial Review, 8 November. 1107. Quiggin, J. (2007), Our world really is ending, Australian Financial Review, 22 November. 1108. Quiggin, J. (2007), Greener future is permitted, Australian Financial Review, 6

December. 1109. Quiggin, J. (2007), Iemma’s power failure, Australian Financial Review, 6 December. 1110. Quiggin, J. (2008), Musical background beef, Australian Financial Review, 3 January. 1111. Quiggin, J. (2008), Learn from iraq disaster, Australian Financial Review, 17 January. 1112. Quiggin, J. (2008), America bushwhacked, Australian Financial Review, 31 January. 1113. Quiggin, J. (2008), The flip side to the flop, Australian Financial Review, 14 February. 1114. Quiggin, J. (2008), Seize the day for the basin, Australian Financial Review, 28 February. 1115. Quiggin, J. (2008), Tax breaks must be axed, Australian Financial Review, 13 March. 1116. Quiggin, J. (2008), Libs need services rethink, Australian Financial Review, 27 March. 1117. Quiggin, J. (2008), Balancing promises and risks, Australian Financial Review, 10 April. 1118. Quiggin, J. (2008), Promises a core responsibility, Australian Financial Review, 8 May. 1119. Quiggin, J. (2008), Don’t sell water down the river, Australian Financial Review, 22 May. 1120. Quiggin, J. (2008), Reserve status under threat, Australian Financial Review, 3 July. 1121. Quiggin, J. (2008), Free riders not welcome, Australian Financial Review, 17 July. 1122. Quiggin, J. (2008), Win or lose in second half, Australian Financial Review, 31 July. 1123. Quiggin, J. (2008), Flow-on effects of neglect, Australian Financial Review, 14 August. 1124. Quiggin, J. (2008), Free-market facade cracks, Australian Financial Review, 11 September.

100

1125. Quiggin, J. (2008), Guilty must bear the cost, Australian Financial Review, 25 September. 1126. Quiggin, J. (2008), Stepping into a maelstrom, Australian Financial Review, 6 November. 1127. Quiggin, J. (2008), Fallout can be mitigated, Australian Financial Review, 20 November. 1128. Quiggin, J. (2008), Let banks be banks again, Australian Financial Review, 1129. Quiggin, J. (2008), Rudd misread the weather, Australian Financial Review, 18 December. 1130. Quiggin, J. (2009), Obama must be bold, Australian Financial Review, 15 January. 1131. Quiggin, J. (2009), Bank on change, but not here, Australian Financial Review, 12 February. 1132. Quiggin, J. (2009), Risky business needs rethink, Australian Financial Review, 26 February. 1133. Quiggin, J. (2009), Spending cuts all wrong, Australian Financial Review, 12 March. 1134. Quiggin, J. (2009), Much rests on rescue plan, Australian Financial Review, 26 March. 1135. Quiggin, J. (2009), World shift a test for Labor, Australian Financial Review, 7 May. 1136. Quiggin, J. (2009), No more do little and delay, Australian Financial Review, 23 April. 1137. Quiggin, J. (2009), The only way out for Bligh, Australian Financial Review, 21 May. 1138. Quiggin, J. (2009), Blame shifts to the states, Australian Financial Review, 4 June. 1139. Some missing here ?? 1140. Quiggin, J. (2009), Rich will have to pay piper, Australian Financial Review, 18 June. 1141. Quiggin, J. (2009), Gap is one of credibility, Australian Financial Review, 13 August. 1142. Quiggin, J. (2009), China starts to come clean, Australian Financial Review, 27

101

August. 1143. Quiggin, J. (2009), Review green tokenism, Australian Financial Review, 10 Sep. 1144. Quiggin, J. (2009), Gross versus net worth, Australian Financial Review, 24 Sep. 1145. Quiggin, J. (2009), Right road, wrong pricing, Australian Financial Review, 22 Oct. 1146. Quiggin, J. (2009), Privatisation debunked, Australian Financial Review, 5 Nov. 1147. Quiggin, J. (2009), Urgent action required, Australian Financial Review, 19 Nov. 1148. Quiggin, J. (2009), Libs left with Chinese model, Australian Financial Review, 3 Dec. 1149. Quiggin, J. (2010), QR sale plan off the rails, Australian Financial Review, 17 December. 1150. Quiggin, J. (2010), Zombie idea’s great debt, Australian Financial Review, 14 Jan. 1151. Quiggin, J. (2010), Tepid conspiracy theory, Australian Financial Review, 28 Jan. 1152. Quiggin, J. (2010), Central banks could learn more from experience, Australian Financial Review, 11 Feb. 1153. 25 feb missing 1154. Quiggin, J. (2010), Science the victim of dishonest attacks, Australian Financial Review, 11 Mar. 1155. Quiggin, J. (2010), Futile to resist rise in tax, Australian Financial Review, 25 Mar. 1156. Quiggin, J. (2010), Immigration is freedom, Australian Financial Review, 15 Apr. 1157. Quiggin, J. (2010), Plug the tax gaps, Australian Financial Review, 29 Apr. 1158. Quiggin, J. (2010), Carbon tax needed now, Australian Financial Review, 13 May. 1159. Quiggin, J. (2010), Alternative close at hand, Australian Financial Review, 27 May. 1160. Quiggin, J. (2010), A climate for backflip, Australian Financial Review, 10 June. 1161. Quiggin, J. (2010), New crisis, same stories, Australian Financial Review, 24 June. 1162. Quiggin, J. (2010), Economies in recovery, Australian Financial Review, 8 July. 1163. Quiggin, J. (2010), Unity can win climate war, Australian Financial Review, 22 July.

102

1164. Quiggin, J. (2010), Abbott’s free pass on power claims, Australian Financial Review, 5 Aug. 1165. Quiggin, J. (2010), Populist economics rules, Australian Financial Review, 19 Aug. 1166. Quiggin, J. (2010), Get used to volatility, Australian Financial Review, 2 Sep. 1167. Quiggin, J. (2010), Get with reform program, Australian Financial Review, 16 Sep. 1168. Quiggin, J. (2010), Dead ideas still walking, Australian Financial Review, 30 Sep. 1169. Quiggin, J. (2010), The $6bn water question, Australian Financial Review, 14 Oct. 1170. Quiggin, J. (2010), No one will be forced out, Australian Financial Review, 28 Oct. 1171. Quiggin, J. (2010), Abandon belief in war, Australian Financial Review, 11 Nov. 1172. Quiggin, J. (2010), Billions down the drain, Australian Financial Review, 9 Dec. 1173. Quiggin, J. (2011), Why GDP doesn’t count, Australian Financial Review, 17 Jan. 1174. Quiggin, J. (2011), A climate of ignorance, Australian Financial Review, 3 Feb. 1175. Quiggin, J. (2011), Keep the razor sheathed, Australian Financial Review, 17 Feb. 1176. Quiggin, J. (2011), Household assistance priority a good sign, The Age, 25 Feb. 1177. Quiggin, J. (2011), No nuclear renaissance, Australian Financial Review, 17 Mar. 1178. Quiggin, J. (2011), Tax alert for real alarmists, Australian Financial Review, 3 Mar. 1179. Quiggin, J. (2011), Privatisation undid labor, Australian Financial Review, 3 Mar. 1180. Quiggin, J. (2011), Labor’s conservative tilt, Australian Financial Review, 14 April. 1181. Quiggin, J. (2011), Reforms are full of flaws, Australian Financial Review, 28 April. 1182. Quiggin, J. (2011), Budget clears decks for carbon tax, Australian Financial Review, 11 May. 1183. Quiggin, J. (2011), Too dangerous to deny, Australian Financial Review, 25 May. 1184. Quiggin, J. (2011), Water plan boondoggled, Australian Financial Review, 9 June. 1185. Quiggin, J. (2011), A soulless labor vision, Australian Financial Review, 23 June.

103

1186. Quiggin, J. (2011), Truth gets in the way, Australian Financial Review, 7 July. 1187. Quiggin, J. (2011), Only answer is to cut news’s reach, Australian Financial Review, 21 July. 1188. Quiggin, J. (2011), No hard and fast rule for workers, Australian Financial Review, 4 August. 1189. Quiggin, J. (2011), Peak oil point falls flat, Australian Financial Review, 18 August. 1190. Quiggin, J. (2011), The just fight not fought, Australian Financial Review, 1 September. 1191. Quiggin, J. (2011), Obama flicks jobs switch, Australian Financial Review, 15 September. 1192. Quiggin, J. (2011), Euro banks deserve a hit, Australian Financial Review, 29 September. 1193. Quiggin, J. (2011), Top 1 per cent should tremble, Australian Financial Review, 13 October. 1194. Quiggin, J. (2011), The right’s wrong turn, Australian Financial Review, 27 October.

104 105 106 107 108 American Economic Review 101 (August 2011): 1649–1675 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi 10.1257/aer.101.5.1649 =

Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the United States Economy †

By Nicholas Z. Muller, Robert Mendelsohn, and William Nordhaus*

This study presents a framework to include environmental externalities into a system of national accounts. The paper estimates the air pollution damages for each industry in the United States. An integrated-assessment model quantifies the marginal damages of air pollution emissions for the US which are multiplied times the quantity of emissions by industry to compute gross damages. Solid waste combustion, sewage treatment, stone quarrying, marinas, and oil and coal-fired power plants have air pollution damages larger than their value added. The largest industrial contributor to external costs is coal-fired electric generation, whose damages range from 0.8 to 5.6 times value added. JEL E01, L94, Q53, Q56 ( )

An important and enduring issue in environmental economics has been to develop both appropriate accounting systems and reliable estimates of environmental damages Wassily Leontief 1970; Yusuf J. Ahmad, Salah El Serafay, and Ernst Lutz ( 1989; Nordhaus and Edward Charles Kokkelenberg 1999; Kimio Uno and Peter Bartelmus 1998 . ) Some of this literature has focused on valuing natural resources such as water resources, forests, and minerals Henry M. Peskin 1989; World Bank 1997; Robert ( D. Cairns 2000; Haripriya Gundimeda et al. 2007; Michael Vardon et al. 2007 . ) Other studies have focused on including pollution. For example, the earliest papers that focused on pollution relied on material flows analysis to calculate the tons of emissions per unit of production by industry Robert U. Ayres and Allen V. Kneese ( 1969 . This has been formalized in the Netherlands Steven J. Keuning 1993 and in ) ( ) Sweden Viveka Palm and Maja Larsson 2007 . The materials-flow approach is use- ( ) ful for tracking physical flows, but it is inappropriate for national economic accounts because it does not contain values and because the damages associated with different source locations and toxicity are not included. This paper contributes to this literature in two ways. First, we present a framework to integrate external damages into national economic accounts. The gross

* Muller: Department of Economics, Environmental Studies Program, Middlebury College, 303 College Street, Middlebury, VT 05753 e-mail: [email protected] ; Mendelsohn: School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University,( 195 Prospect Street, New Haven,) CT 06511 e-mail: [email protected] ; Nordhaus: Department of Economics, Yale University, 28 Hillhouse, New( Haven, CT, 06511 e-mail: william.) [email protected] The authors wish to thank the Glaser Progress Foundation for their generous( support of this research. Muller acknowledges) the support of the USEPA: EPA-OPEI-NCEE-08-02. We also would like to thank seminar participants at Yale University, Harvard University, USEPA, NBER, and the anonymous referees for their helpful comments. † To view additional materials, visit the article page at http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.5.1649.

1649 109 1650 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

external damages GED from pollution caused by each industry are included in ( ) the national accounts as both a cost and an unwanted output. Second, we demon- ( ) strate that the methodology can be applied in practice. Using empirical estimates of the marginal damages in effect, the prices associated with each emission in ( ) every county, we calculate the national damages from air pollution damages by industry for the United States. In the next section, we develop the framework for integrating external effects into national economic accounts. We add external effects both as an input and as an output in the accounting framework. Air pollution becomes another cost of doing business. In regulated industries, firms already engage in some abatement, and such costs are already included as a cost in the existing national accounts. However, GED from the remaining emissions is not incorporated into the accounts. This paper argues that emissions should be valued by the damage they cause. Several studies have measured national pollution damages A. Myrick Freeman ( III 2002; Muller and Mendelsohn 2007; United States Environmental Protection Agency USEPA 1999 . There have been proposals to integrate economic impacts ( ) ) of pollution into satellite accounts Bureau of Economic Analysis BEA 1994; ( ( ) Abram J. de Boo et al. 1991 . To date, no national statistical agency has linked ) pollution damages to industries. We should note some conventions that we use in constructing our estimates. First, as is standard in national accounting, we rely on market prices to value quantities. That is, marginal values are applied to both marginal and inframarginal units. This implies that GDP estimates do not reflect consumer surplus. Second, we do not assume that the observed prices represent an economic optimum. Rather, market prices may reflect a number of distortions such as taxes or markets that are not perfectly competitive. Third, when the necessary prices are not available, they must be imputed. For example, the national accounts impute a rent for owner occupied housing. This study imputes a price on air pollution emissions equal to marginal damages in order to measure the externalities from air pollution. Finally, the damages due to air pollution are included in this study, but other external effects such as those that take place through water, soils, noise, and other media are not. For example, this paper quantifies the damages due to air pollution emissions from sewage treatment facilities, but it does not report the benefits stemming from water pollution control. In the subsequent section, we provide empirical estimates of the marginal damages and the economic impacts of air pollution damages by industry. We briefly introduce an integrated assessment model that is used to calculate the marginal damages or shadow prices of emissions Muller and Mendelsohn 2007, ( 2009 . The model first calculates the total baseline damages from the 2002 levels ) of emissions across the United States. Next, one ton of a particular air pollutant is then added to baseline emissions at one source and the total national ( ) damages are recalculated. The change in the total damage is the marginal damage, or the shadow price, of the additional ton emitted from the selected source Muller and Mendelsohn 2007 . This calculation captures the effects of sec- ( ) ondary pollutants and pollution interaction effects. We then repeat this process for each of the 10,000 sources in the United States and for each of six primary 110 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1651 pollutants.1 Multiplying the estimated shadow price times the quantity of emissions by source yields GED caused by that source Muller and Mendelsohn 2007 . ( ) Summing GED from all sources within an industry yields GED for that industry. Summing GED across industries within a sector yields GED for that sector. GED reported in this study is the annual damages from emissions in the year 2002. The only exception is the analysis of greenhouse gases, which evaluates the present value of future damages from 2002 emissions. Because we do not evaluate emissions over multiple years, this study does not address either conceptual or methodological issues associated with deflation of GED. Using GED as an index of pollution is a promising subject of further inquiry. In Section III, we first examine the economy from a sectoral perspective. This provides a broad picture of the sectoral sources of air pollution in the United States economy. The utility sector is by far the largest polluter in the economy, accounting for one-third of air pollution damages. Agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing are also large sources of air pollution damages. Throughout the paper, we compare GED to value added VA . The purpose of this comparison is to determine ( ) whether correcting for external costs has a substantial effect on the net economic impact of different industries. From this perspective, the agriculture and utility sectors yield the largest GED VA ratio; both sectors generated GED that constitute / over one-third of their VA. We then turn to the estimation of damages by industry. We find that the ratio of GED VA is greater than one for seven industries stone quarrying, solid waste / ( incineration, sewage treatment plants, oil- and coal-fired power plants, marinas, and petroleum-coal product manufacturing . This indicates that the air pollution dam- ) ages from these industries are greater than their net contribution to output. Several other industries also have high GED VA ratios. We also present the overall size of / GED by industry. Five industries stand out as large air polluters: coal-fired power plants, crop production, truck transportation, livestock production, and highway- street-bridge construction. In order to explore the robustness of our results to certain assumptions in the integrated assessment model, we conduct a sensitivity analysis. The analysis shows that the level of GED is sensitive to assumptions about the value of mortality risks, how this value varies by age, and the adult mortality dose-response function for particulate matter. A final analysis examines the fossil fuel electric generating industry in detail. It presents a more detailed calculation of GED for coal-fired power plants and it includes the impact of carbon dioxide CO . The paper concludes by reviewing ( 2) key results, and raising promising future research opportunities.

I. Economic Accounting for the Environment

This section reviews the analytical and accounting questions involved in designing and estimating environmental accounts. While much has been written on the general topic, there appears to be no consensus about how to redesign the standard

1 The pollutants tracked in this paper include sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, two measures of particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10 , ammonia, volatile organic compounds, and carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power generation( sector.) 111 1652 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011 national accounts to incorporate externalities. We address several important analytical questions in this section.

A. Treatment of the Environment in the Standard National Accounts

National economic accounts are based on the principle that they cover those activities that are included in market activities. External effects are activities that are by definition excluded from market transactions, and they are therefore by definition and in principle excluded from the market accounts. For simplicity, we will discuss only the current-price accounts, and our empirical application is for a single year. Constructing a constant-price time series would require both time series for all values and defining price indexes for each of the environmental variables, which is beyond the scope of the present study. There is by now a vast literature on environmental accounting, but there are few attempts to incorporate such accounts in the standard national accounts framework. The National Academy of Sciences described the principles of augmented national accounts in a report on nonmarket accounting as follows Katharine G. Abraham ( and Christopher Mackie 2005 : ) A conceptual framework must be adopted on which to develop an economic account.[ ] For a number of reasons, the panel believes that experimental satellite accounts will be most useful if their structure is as consistent as possible with the NIPAs National Income and Product Accounts . Because the national accounts have undergone[ extensive scrutiny, reflecting a long] history of research and policy use, the underlying principles are well tested and practice shows they can be imple- mented. Moreover, researchers are interested in developing augmented measures of output that are compatible with GDP. These considerations argue for pursuing an approach that uses dollar prices as the metric for relative value and, wherever possible, values inputs and outputs using analogous observable market transactions.

One widely discussed set of accounts is the Satellite Economic and Environmental Accounts SEEA United Nations 2003; Palm and Larsson 2007 . SEEA attempts ( ) ( ) to bring together economic and environmental data in a common framework to measure the contribution of the environment to the economy and the impact of the economy on the environment. There are four different categories of accounts in SEEA, including flow accounts, environmental expenditures, natural resource accounts, and valuation accounts. At present, however, SEEA does not include a full treatment of how to incorporate environmental flows into the national economic accounts. In order to value pollution emissions, one could employ either marginal abatement costs or marginal damages Nordhaus and James Tobin 1972 . Of course, if ( ) regulations are perfectly efficient, these two measures would be identical. But if pollutants are underregulated overregulated , marginal damages will exceed be ( ) ( less than marginal costs. From a conceptual point of view, damage-based pricing is ) necessary to implement a welfare-based measure of pollution output. The BEA made an effort to build a system of environmental accounts; the IEESA Integrated Economic and Environmental Satellite Accounts were devel- ( ) oped in 1994 but this effort was derailed by the Congress. The National Academy of Sciences reviewed the IEESA and other accounting efforts in a major report on environmental accounting Nordhaus and Kokkelenberg 1999 . Other contributors ( ) 112 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1653 to the theory of environmental accounts include Kirk Hamilton 1996, 2000 and ( ) Ignazio Musu and Domenico Siniscalco 1996 . There has been little progress, ( ) however, in developing a practical environmental accounting system that can be integrated with the national economic accounts. One important empirical study to note is the recent work of Mun S. Ho and Dale W. Jorgenson 2007 that computes air pollution damages by sector in China. This ( ) work reports the health damages from emissions of total suspended particulates TSP , nitrogen oxides NO , and sulfur dioxide SO for 33 sectors of the Chinese ( ) ( x) ( 2) economy. The study makes the important step of estimating the value of air pollution emissions, rather than simply reporting the quantity of emissions as prior research has done. The values reported by Ho and Jorgensen, however, are based on the average impact of emissions within industries, rather than the preferred marginal damage of each emission. This paper improves upon the Ho-Jorgenson study by using source-specific marginal damages, and by reporting both industry and sector damages.

B. National Accounts with Pollution

Our discussion focuses primarily on the “production accounts.” It is important to develop the accounts further to include a full or integrated set of accounts. The gold standard for integrated accounts has been laid out by Jorgenson and J. Steven Landefeld 2006 . An integrated set of accounts includes not only the production ( ) accounts developed here but also the income or receipts accounts, the balance sheet with assets and capital, as well as international accounts. The most important next steps would be income and asset accounts. Nordhaus 2008a discusses environmen- ( ) tal income accounts, while the BEA 1994 discusses environmental asset accounts. ( ) Developing these further steps in a complete set of environmental accounts is on the agenda for future research. We begin our discussion of the fundamentals of environmental accounts with an example, and then provide a graphical interpretation of the appropriate accounting. For the present discussion, we present the accounts that would apply in an economy in which there is a pollution externality that is subject to regulation. Suppose for concreteness that the economy contains two industries. In the first industry, farmers produce market berries. The second industry is power, which produces electricity, earning returns from capital after payments to labor and other inputs. We assume that power production causes damages to market berry production. Because of a market failure due to the public good nature of pollution, the power industry does not take into account its effect on the berry farmers when choosing inputs, outputs, and technology and, hence, there is an externality. If the externalities exclusively affect other market sectors, the externalities do not get lost in the current accounting system even though they are not explicitly recog- nized. The accounts measure the reduction in net output arising from the externality—there are fewer berries. Net national output is correctly measured. The standard accounts do not, however, measure industry output correctly because they do not include the external costs to the berry industry of the operations of the power ( ) industry. From the national accounts perspective, the power industry has no external costs, but the berry industry is smaller than it would be if pollution did not exist. 113 1654 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

In practice, most of the externalities are to nonmarket sectors such as health, visibility, and recreation, which are not measured in the accounts. The traditional national accounts do not measure these losses and, therefore, they overestimate net national output.

C. Measurement of Gross External Damage and Net External Damage

From an analytical point of view, we interpret externalities as uncompensated transactions. In other words, the externalities are treated as flows of services from the industry damaged by pollution to the polluting industry. In our example above, the damages caused by the power industry to the berry industry are treated as flows of inputs or negative outputs. For a given level of pollution, we can estimate the marginal damage from emitting an extra unit of pollution and use this as the imputed price. The approach can be illustrated by considering a simple example of a polluting industry. Suppose the government limits the amount of emissions of a pollutant, such as sulfur dioxide. The government might use command-and-control regulations, tradable emissions permits, or taxes on pollution. In our example, we assume that the government creates property rights for pollution using tradable emission permits, and that the permits are freely allocated with a uniform price. We examine the tradable permit system in this discussion because it leads to a single price of pollution and simplifies the accounting. The results apply to a command-and-control system as well, but the ( concepts and measurements are more complex since each polluter is likely to face a different marginal abatement cost. Alternatively, the government might set a price on pollution as an emissions fee and let the market determine the quantity of pollution, but that case also introduces no new analytical issues. ) We define the gross external damages GED as equal to the marginal damages ( ) of emissions the price times the total quantity of emissions. If the polluter receives ( ) the permits without cost, GED is the correct measure of the omitted environmental costs of that industry. If, however, the polluter pays for the pollution either by buying permits or ( through pollution taxes , the costs of the pollution would be part of the firm’s cost ) of production under standard accounting principles. To avoid double counting, the costs of the permits should be subtracted from GED to obtain net external damages, or NED. In most cases today, firms receive permits free of charge, in which case NED equals GED, so environmental accounts can use GED as the correct measure. In the future, however, if the volume of trade increases, if pollution allowances are subject to auction, or if pollution taxes become prominent, one would need to adjust GED by subtracting permit costs or taxes. In the very unlikely case where the permit price is exactly equal to marginal damages, NED is equal to zero and no adjustment would be necessary to include environmental damages in the economic accounts.2 Note that the adjustment to output depends therefore on the institutional arrange- ment concerning how pollution is regulated for example, how initial permits are allo- ( cated in a cap-and-trade system . The adjustment is conceptually separate from the )

2 If the marginal damage exceeds the permit price, NED is still positive and traditional accounts continue to overestimate the industry’s VA. If, however, the permit price exceeds marginal damage, NED is negative. In this case, the correct VA for the industry is higher than the traditional accounts suggest because the pollution regulation is overly strict. 114 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1655

p, MC MC Pollution permits

C p*

Market value of permits Abatement costs 0 A B Abatement Pollution Figure 1. Abatement Costs

Notes: This figure shows the marginal cost of abatement function for a typical pollutant. Pollution is limited by regulation to the vertical line marked “pollution permits.” The area OAC is the total cost of abatement, which is captured by traditional national accounts. The area BACp* is the market value of pollution permits if firms had to buy all of their permits at market prices. property-rights question of whether the polluter must compensate the affected par- ties—whether the polluter-pays principle applies Nordhaus 2008a . From the point of ( ) view of production accounting, the measurement of the flow of services from an asset does not depend upon who actually owns that asset. Whether a firm should obtain pollution permits at zero cost, however, or pay for them is a property rights issue.

D. Graphical Treatment of Accounting

We can use a set of figures to illustrate these points. We take the case of a single pollutant, such as sulfur dioxide. Figure 1 shows the marginal costs of abatement. For this purpose, we have taken all the pollution sources and have ranked them from lowest marginal abatement cost at the left to highest marginal abatement cost at the right. This ranking produces the MC curve of monotonically increasing marginal abatement costs. Additionally, we assume that the government has issued a given quantity of pollution allowances, as indicated by the vertical line labeled “pollution permits,” and as shown by the arrow on the horizontal axis. With these costs and quantities, under a tradable permit system, the price of permits will be at the level indicated by p*. Abatement is shown by the arrow marked “abatement.” Complete abatement is marked as B. If firms must buy the permits in an auction, the market value of the pollution is indicated by the shaded blue area, ACp*B. This equals the pollution quantity times the market value of permits. We show the total abatement cost as the area 0AC, marked “Abatement costs.” These 115 1656 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

p, v, MC MC

D permits Pollution Marginal v* external damages G (v)

Gross external damages Market value permits

0 Abatement A Pollution B

Figure 2. Damages from Pollution

Notes: This figure shows the accounting treatment if firms are freely allocated pollution permits. The marginal damage function of pollution is the dashed line. GED is the shaded rectangle BADv* that represents the product of emissions times marginal damage. costs are incurred by firms and are already included in the measured costs of production. Because permits are freely allocated, we need not make any further adjustment for abatement costs in the environmental accounts. Figure 2 shows the accounting for pollution damages in our framework. We show as a dashed line the marginal damage function of pollution. In the diagram, marginal damages fall with increased abatement rise with increased pollution . We estimate ( ) the marginal damages from pollution at the regulated level to be v *. Using the standard conventions of national accounting, the value of pollution is the marginal value of pollution times the quantity of pollution, which is shown by the shaded rectangle ADv* B, marked “gross external damages.” Figure 2 illustrates an important point: the accounting rule should be valid whether or not regulations are optimal. Point G is at the optimal regulation, where the marginal costs equal marginal damages. The example shown in Figure 2 assumes that the regulations are not optimal, so the equilibrium is at point D, not at point G. Finally, if firms must buy all of their permits, we show how the accounting framework in Figure 2 must be modified in Figure 3. GED is the same as in Figure 2. We need to subtract the cost of the permits, however, to calculate net external damages. NED is GED minus the payments for permits, which is the upper rectangle in Figure 3.

E. Current Accounting Treatment of Pollution Permits

In order to complete our estimates, we need to determine the way that the cost to the polluter of permits or other instruments is treated under current tax and financial 116 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1657

p, v, MC Pollution permits

Net external Net damages in external proposal national damages Gross environmental external account damages

Market value of permits Accounting 0 cost of permits A Abatement Pollution

Figure 3. Net External Damages

Notes: This figure shows the accounting treatment if firms must buy all permits or make emission tax payments at market prices. The bottom rectangle is the market value of permits from Figure 1.( If this value is subtracted from )the gross external damages in Figure 2, we obtain net external damages. Net external damages do not have to be positive.

accounts and in the National Income and Product Accounts NIPAs of the United ( ) States.3 From an economic point of view, we would expect that the inputs of pollution would be valued at their current or replacement cost.4 This means that pollution permits should be valued at their market value. The tax and financial accounting for permits, however, do not generally use market-value pricing, and the structure of the NIPAs excludes the value of permits under the current US regulatory regime and accounting conventions. For the United States, tax accounting is well defined for the sulfur dioxide allowances governed by the Acid Rain Program. According to Internal Revenue Service guidelines, there are three important points. First, virtually all allowances are allocated to firms based on their historical emissions. When allowances are allocated to utilities, this does not involve a financial transaction and is therefore not recorded in the books of either the firms or the government. On the corporation’s books, the allowances are capitalized as an intangible asset at zero cost. They are thereby an asset when bought by or allocated to a polluting source. Allocation does not cause a taxable event. The tax basis is the historical cost, which is zero for units that receive allowances by allocation, and is actual cost if purchased.

3 This description has benefited from information from the staff of the BEA. 4 The United Nations System of National Account states the convention as follows: “Current cost accounting is a valuation method whereby assets and goods used in production are valued at their actual or estimated current market prices at the time the production takes place it is sometimes described as ‘replacement cost accounting’ .” See http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/toctop.asp, section( 1.60. ) 117 1658 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

Second, the allowances are not depreciated or amortized. Instead, the cost of the allowances is deductible in the year in which the sulfur dioxide is emitted, that is, when they are used. At that point, if the entire allowance is used, the tax deduction is equal to the cost basis. The deduction would be zero for allocations, and would be historical cost for purchases of allowances. Finally, any cost is included as a depreciation charge for an intangible asset rather than a current charge. The tax treatment has the anomalous feature that the charge against income would differ depending upon whether permits were purchased or allocated US Department of ( the Treasury 2000 . ) Third, under accounting principles used in the United States, the NIPAs remove depreciation or amortization of intangible assets that are not capitalized in the national accounts. Because allowances are not currently capitalized, they will not be depreciated. This implies therefore that, in principle, none of the transactions associated with the SO2 allowance program is currently recorded as transactions in the NIPAs. The treatment of permits under financial accounting is currently under review by US and international accounting groups. For utilities regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FERC , the historical-cost principle is used. This ( ) leads to the same results as those described for tax accounting. While the appropriate treatment of permits is evolving, our judgment is that the accounting costs of permits in the NIPAs are a negligible fraction of the replacement cost of those permits. This judgment is primarily based on two observations concerning the current accounting and regulatory regime in the United States. First, most industries are governed by command-and-control regulations, which allow emissions without payment up to the specified standard. Second, those industries regulated by cap-and-trade programs obtain allowances through allocation at zero cost. Current treatment in the national accounts would in principle exclude any costs both because it is a zero-cost basis and because it involves an uncapitalized intangible asset. In principle, therefore, the national accounts would treat NED as equal to GED. In summary, the empirical estimates below assume that the accounting costs of pollution allowances included in the national accounts and in the input-output estimates are zero. We consequently rely on the analysis in Figure 2 for our estimates of the cost of air pollution in the United States. That is, we assume that NED equals GED. This assumption must be reviewed as institutions or regulations change because the future accounting cost of permits may not be zero, particularly if future allowances are auctioned by the government.

II. Modeling Methods

In this section, we describe the methods that are employed to estimate the GED from different kinds of air pollution by sector and industry. We begin with an exploration of the integrated assessment model that is used to compute the marginal damage estimates. The discussion focuses, in particular, on how the impacts on human health are modeled. Next, we discuss the values that are employed to characterize the impact of CO2 emissions. Finally, we show how GED is computed for specific sources and by industry. 118 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1659

A. The APEEP Model

This paper uses the Air Pollution Emission Experiments and Policy APEEP ( ) analysis model, which is an integrated assessment economic model of air pollution for the United States Muller and Mendelsohn 2007 .5 The APEEP model connects ( ) emissions of six major pollutants sulfur dioxide SO , nitrogen oxides NO , vol- ( ( 2) ( x) atile organic compounds VOCs , ammonia NH , fine particulate matter PM , ( ) ( 3) ( 2.5) and coarse particulate matter PM –PM to the physical and economic conse- ( 10 2.5)) quences of these discharges on society. The effects included in the model calcula- tions are adverse consequences for human health, decreased timber and agriculture yields, reduced visibility, accelerated depreciation of materials, and reductions in recreation services. In addition, for the electric power generation sector, we include the damages from carbon dioxide emissions. APEEP is an integrated assessment model that employs the USEPA national emission inventory of air pollution emissions in the United States, along with an air quality model to calculate the resulting air pollution concentrations across the country. Using detailed, county-level inventories of sensitive receptors, the model determines exposures to these emitted pollutants, and APEEP computes the resulting physical consequences by relying on peer-reviewed dose-response functions. Finally, the model expresses these physical effects in monetary terms using standard estimates of the value of mortality and morbidity risks. APEEP generates national concentrations, exposures, and damages quite similar to other integrated assessment models. For example, it estimates a baseline level of damages similar to models used by the USEPA Muller and Mendelsohn 2007 . ( ) The important advance from using the APEEP model is that we can measure the marginal damage of emissions from each source location in the United States rather than the average damages Muller and Mendelsohn 2009 . This is accomplished by ( ) first estimating an aggregate level of damages given baseline emissions USEPA ( 2006 . We then add one ton of each pollutant in each source location one pollutant ) ( and source for each calculation and recalculate the total damages of all emissions. ) The change in total damages between the baseline and the incremental run is the marginal damage of that emission MD , where s is the pollutant and j is the source ( s, j) location. For example, we would calculate the increment to total national damages across all counties and daughter products of an additional unit of SO2 emissions from a source located in Grant County, New Mexico. Further, in this application each emission source is attributed to a particular industry in the US economy. This experiment is repeated for each of the six pollutants covered in this study and for each of the 10,000 different sources in the United States. This leads to a marginal damage for all anthropogenic emissions of the six air pollutants listed above in the US; hence, 60,000 marginal damages are produced by the analysis. In estimating total damages from air pollution, this study uses the national accounting NIPA ( ) methodology described in Section I. That is, pollution damages are valued using the total emissions times the marginal damages of an additional unit of pollution.

5 For earlier examples of integrated assessment models, see Mendelsohn 1980 , Nordhaus 1992 , USEPA 1999 . ( ) ( ) ( ) 119 1660 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

The 10,000 emission sources represent a complete inventory of all anthropogenic sources of these six pollutants in the United States USEPA 2006 . The inventory ( ) reported in 2006 is the most recent USEPA inventory, and measures emissions in 2002.6 The 2002 inventory includes 656 large point sources individually docu- ( mented facilities . The inventory also includes area sources from vehicles and sta- ) tionary ground sources aggregated by county for the entire contiguous United States.7 The area sources are distinguished by height as well as location. The emissions are also identified by a six-digit industry code i from the North American Industry ( ) Classification System NAICS . ( ) APEEP uses an air quality model based on the Gaussian plume model to calculate annual concentrations in all destination counties from each emission. This step entails modeling dispersion from wind patterns at each source location. The model is enhanced to include atmospheric chemistry as well. The model approximates important chemical reactions which cause the emitted substances to change into different pollutants that produce large damages. For instance, SO2 is transformed into sulfate PM and emissions of NO , and VOC are transformed into concentrations of tro- ( 2.5) x pospheric ozone O and nitrate PM . These daughter products are then tracked in ( 3) ( 2.5) the APEEP model. The output from the air quality models in APEEP is a set of annual average ambient concentration estimates for each county in the lower 48 states for each of the pollutants and daughter products included in the model. The predicted annual pollution concentrations of APEEP are highly correlated with the results from a state- of-the-art air quality model see Muller and Mendelsohn 2007 . APEEP consequently ( ) does a reasonable job of capturing chronic exposures. However, it is not designed to capture daily fluctuations in concentrations and so cannot capture acute events. We then compute exposures and the physical effects of the predicted exposures. Exposures are determined by first calculating the size of sensitive “populations” in each county. The populations include numbers of people by age, crops, timber, materials, visibility, and recreation resources. County exposures to each pollutant including secondary pollutants are calculated by multiplying each county’s population of each kind times that county’s ambient pollution concentration. The exposures are translated into physical effects using concentration-response relationships from the peer-reviewed literature in the relevant scientific disciplines.8 Prior studies that have explored air pollution damages suggest that the single most critical concentration-response function is the relationship between adult human ( ) mortality and chronic exposures to small particulates PM , USEPA 1999; Muller ( 2.5) ( and Mendelsohn 2007, 2009 . The model also includes concentration-response ) functions governing the relationship between mortality rates and ozone exposures, as well as various functions capturing morbidity impacts, agricultural and timber yield effects, impaired visibility in recreation and residential settings, reduced recreation uses, and increased depreciation of materials in the capital stock especially ( materials on buildings . ) Finally, APEEP converts the physical effects into economic impacts using the results of valuation studies such as dollars per unit of impaired visibility or per (

6 Since the analysis in this paper was completed, the 2005 inventory was released. 7 The data are provided by the USEPA 2002 National Emission Inventory USEPA 2006 . 8 The full list of dose-response functions used in APEEP is found in Muller( and Mendelsohn) 2007 . ( ) 120 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1661 case of a specific disease . The resulting dollar damage per ton of emission can then ) be compared with abatement costs. In this study, the marginal damages are used to estimate GED by industry and for the overall economy. One of the important results of the damage estimates is that most of the damages due to exposures to air pollution result from human health effects, specifically premature fatalities USEPA 1999; Muller and Mendelsohn 2007 . To count human ( ) exposures, APEEP contains an inventory of populations in each county subdivided into 19 age groups.9 The population is divided by age because age is a key deter- minant of human health effects. To measure the effect of chronic long-term expo- ( ) sures to fine particulate matter PM on adult mortality rates, APEEP uses the ( 2.5) results from the ongoing study by C. Arden Pope III et al. 2002 , which tracks a ( ) large sample of individuals distributed across nearly 200 cities in the United States. Because mortality effects are subject to considerable uncertainty and are also so important to total GED, we estimate results using both the Pope et al. 2002 study ( ) and another analysis Francine Laden et al. 2006 in the sensitivity analysis. In order ( ) to capture the effect of PM2.5 on infant mortality rates, we employ results from the recent study by Tracey J. Woodruff, Jennifer D. Parker, and Kenneth C. Schoendorf 2006 . APEEP also calculates the relationship between exposures to tropospheric ( ) ozone O and adult mortality rates using the study by Michael L. Bell et al. 2004 . ( 3) ( ) In addition to mortality effects, APEEP accounts for the relationship between exposures to air pollution and a collection of acute and chronic illnesses, such as chronic bronchitis and chronic asthma see Muller and Mendelsohn 2007 . ( ) Translating the health effects into economic losses requires determining an economic value for premature mortality. The baseline analysis, referred to as Case I, treats premature mortality in terms of the life-years lost rather than just a death. The value attributed to premature mortality among persons in age cohort a in county ( ) c , denoted V , is the sum of the annual mortality risk premium R times the ( ) ( a,c) ( ) expected number of life-years remaining. In addition, the value affixed to future years of life are discounted and weighted by the probability of each age group surviving to the next time period. This computation is shown in equation 1 : ( )

t 1 Va,c R Ta,c 1 − , ( ) =t 0,∑ … , Ta,c [ Γ ( + δ ) ] = where

V present value of a premature mortality of person in age-cohort a in a,c = ( ) county c , ( ) R annual mortality risk premium, $ life-year , = ( / ) T the number of life-years remaining for persons in age-cohort a , in county a,c = ( ) c , ( )

9 APEEP has been updated to include more detailed mortality rate data for people over 65. This improvement leads to higher mortality rates than reported in Muller and Mendelsohn 2007, 2009 . ( ) 121 1662 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

cumulative probability of survival to period T for age-cohort a , living ΓT,a,c = ( ) ( ) in county c , and ( ) discount rate. δ = The annual mortality risk premium R is determined by calculating a value of R ( ) such that the present value of the expected life-years remaining equals the value of a statistical life VSL for an average worker. For example, with a VSL of $6 million ( ) USEPA 1999 and a discount rate of 3 percent, for an average 35-year-old male ( ) worker, R is approximately $265,000 $ life-year . ( / ) This approach leads to a social value of early mortality that is higher for younger people and lower for the elderly. This is a controversial assumption. As a result, we also employ an alternative approach in the sensitivity analysis in which the value V is held constant regardless of the age of the exposed population. The relation- ( a,c) ship between mortality valuation and age could also follow alternative patterns W. ( Kip Viscusi and Joseph E. Aldy 2003 . ) Another key assumption is the magnitude of the value placed on mortality risks. This study values mortality risks using evidence from both revealed preference studies and stated preference studies in the literature. Specifically, we employ a value of a statistical life VSL of $6 million per premature mortality. This figure represents ( ) the mean of 28 studies reviewed by the USEPA and it is used by the agency in their analyses of the benefits and costs of the Clean Air Act USEPA 1999 . In order to ( ) explore the impact that different VSLs have on GED, we explore two alternative values of $2 million and $10 million in the sensitivity analysis. The lower value stems from a meta-analysis of revealed-preference methods Janusz R. Mrozek and Laura ( O. Taylor 2002 and the upper value comes from Viscusi and Michael J. Moore ) 1989 . Further, the $10 million and $2 million values reflect a range of one standard ( ) deviation above and below the mean value of $6 million from the distribution of studies reviewed by the USEPA USEPA 1999 . ( ) For the electric power industry, we make one final calculation by including the damages from CO2 emissions. Although we were interested in making this analysis across all industries, estimates of CO2 emissions are not yet available for all industries. However, CO2 emissions have been calculated for the fossil fuel electric power generators United States Energy Information Administration 2008 . CO contributes ( ) 2 to global warming, causing a stream of damages far into the future. Several studies have estimated the global damages per ton, also referred to as the social cost of carbon, of emissions see Richard S. J. Tol 2005; IPCC 2007; Nordhaus 2008b . We rely ( ) on these estimates to place a value on carbon C emissions by industry. As a central ( ) estimate, we use the estimate from Nordhaus 2008b of $27 tC.10 We then use $6 tC ( ) / / as a lower bound and $65 tC as an upper bound based on a careful survey of results / from other studies Tol 2005 . Note that these values apply to emissions in 2002. ( ) As concentrations of CO2 increase in the atmosphere, the social cost of carbon is expected to rise over time Nordhaus 2008b . ( )

10 Note that these values are expressed in terms of 2000 USD per ton of carbon. The $27 tC is equivalent to $7.4 per ton of carbon dioxide. / 122 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1663

B. Gross External Damages

The USEPA National Emission Inventory USEPA 2006 identifies the volume ( ) E and location j of every emission of the air pollutants of each pollutant s ( ) ( ) ( ) tracked in this study in the United States. Each source is assigned to a six-digit industry code i from NAICS. As discussed above, the APEEP model estimates the ( ) marginal damage of an emission of pollutant s from each location j , MD . GED ( ) ( ) s, j is calculated by multiplying the emissions E times the location and pollutant- ( s, i, j ) specific marginal damage MD . GED attributed to source j in industry i ( s, j ) s, i, j ( ) ( ) emitting pollutant s as shown in equation 2 : ( ) ( ) 2 GED MD E . ( ) s, i, j = s, i, j × s, i, j The total GED attributed to industry i is the sum of damages across the six emitted ( ) pollutants covered by APEEP and across all source locations:

3 GEDi MDs, i, j E s, i, j. ( ) = ∑j, s ×

For each six-digit NAICS industry, we measure the ratio of GEDi to value added VA . The VA of an industry is the market value of output minus the market value ( i) of inputs, not including the factors of production—labor, land, and capital. The VA data are gathered from the BEA and from the US Census Department Economic Census.11 All monetary values are expressed in base year 2000 dollars. Carbon damages are calculated in a similar fashion using the social cost of carbon, which does not vary by location j . ( ) III. Results

The following section begins by exploring GED for each sector of the US economy. We then move to an analysis of GED by industry. Next, we present the results from our sensitivity analysis. Finally, we examine, in detail, GED for the electric power generation sector as well as the damages due to CO2 emissions from this sector.

A. Gross External Damages by Sector

We begin by presenting estimates of air pollution damages by sector to see what parts of the US economy are responsible for the predicted air pollution damages. Table 1 shows GED and the GED to VA ratio for the market economy by two-digit sector codes. The bottom row in Table 1 indicates that the total GED across all market sectors of the economy in 2002 is $184 billion. The utility and agriculture- forestry sectors stand out as the largest polluters, generating 50 percent of this

11 The sources of data used in this analysis are shown in the online Data Appendix see Appendix A3 in supplementary materials . ( ) 123 1664 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

Table 1—Gross External Damages and GED VA Ratio by Sector / Sector GED GED VA / Agriculture and forestry 32.0 0.38 Utilities 62.6 0.34 Transportation 23.2 0.10 Administrative, waste management, and remediation services 10.7 0.08 Construction 14.7 0.03 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 2.2 0.03 Accommodation and food services 4.2 0.02 Mining 3.3 0.02 Manufacturing 26.4 0.01 Other services 1.0 0.01 Wholesale trade 1.2 0.00 Retail trade 1.7 0.00 Information 0.0 0.00 Finance and insurance 0.0 0.00 Real estate services 0.0 0.00 Professional, scientific, and technical services 0.0 0.00 Management 0.0 0.00 Educational services 0.0 0.00 Health care services 0.7 0.00 Total all sectors 184.0

Note: GED in $ billion per year, 2000 prices.

GED. The utility sector generates the largest GED of all sectors, roughly $63 billion year, which is 34 percent of its value added. One-third of the total GED / is due to emissions from the utility sector. The agriculture-forestry sector generates $32 billion of GED with a GED VA ratio of 38 percent. The transportation / sector generates another $23 billion of GED. This sector produces a GED that is equivalent to 10 percent of its VA. The GED VA ratios for all of the remaining / sectors indicate that GED is less than 10 percent of VA. Nonetheless, a few of the other sectors do contribute sizable GED. For example, the manufacturing sector generates GED of $26 billion, the construction sector produces GED of nearly $15 billion, and the administrative-waste management sector yields GED of close to $11 billion.

B. Gross External Damages by Industry

We now turn to a more detailed accounting of the economy by industry. Table 2 reports GED and the ratio of GED to VA by six-digit NAICS code for industries that meet the following two criteria: either GED VA ratios above 45 percent or GED / above $4 billion. The 820 industries in the United States are ranked according to GED and GED VA ratio the complete table is available in online Appendix A-1 . / ( ) Conceptually, GED represents an additional set of costs predominantly costs to ( nonmarket sectors such as human health associated with production. Therefore, ) incorporating GED into a measure of net VA provides a more complete assessment of industry VA than when these costs are omitted from the current accounts. The table does not include the value of carbon dioxide emissions. All results are in year 2000 prices. Also, note that the values reported in Table 2 do not reflect any nonmarket services or costs aside from GED. 124 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1665

Table 2—Gross External Damages and GED VA Ratio by Industry / Industry GED VA GED / Solid waste combustion and incineration 6.72 4.9 Petroleum-fired electric power generation 5.13 1.8 Sewage treatment facilities 4.69 2.1 Coal-fired electric power generation 2.20 53.4 Dimension stone mining and quarrying 1.89 0.5 Marinas 1.51 2.2 Other petroleum and coal product manufacturing 1.35 0.7 Steam and air conditioning supply 1.02 0.3 Water transportation 1.00 7.7 Sugarcane mills 0.70 0.3 Carbon black manufacturing 0.70 0.4 Livestock production 0.56 14.8 Highway, street, and bridge construction 0.37 13.0 Crop production 0.34 15.3 Food service contractors 0.34 4.2 Petroleum refineries 0.18 4.9 Truck transportation 0.10 9.2

Notes: GED in $ billion per year, 2000 prices. Industries included in Table 2 have either a GED VA ratio above 45 percent or a GED above $4 billion year. / /

Table 2 shows that of the 17 industries meeting the criteria above, four or nearly ( one-quarter belong to the manufacturing sector, while three of the industries are ) in the utility sector. Agriculture, waste management, and the transportation sectors each contribute two industries. Seven industries have air pollution damages that are clearly larger than their VA. These seven are solid waste combustion, petroleum-fired electric power generation, sewage treatment, coal-fired electric power generation, stone mining and quarrying, marinas, and petroleum and coal products. The ratios of damages to VA across these five industries range from 6.7 for solid waste combustion to 1.4 for petroleum and coal products. The fact that GED exceeds VA implies that if the national accounts included the external costs due to air pollution emissions, the augmented measure of VA for these industries would actually be negative. If these external costs were fully internalized, either through purchases of pollution allowances or emission tax payments valued at the marginal ton, and if output and input prices did not change, the magnitude of the external costs would exceed the market VA for these seven industries. Of course, if the external costs were fully internalized, prices would change, so the results do not imply that the US economy would be better off not having these industries at all. How should these high GED VA ratios be interpreted? One interpretation is that / the air pollution from these industries is not efficiently regulated—that the marginal damages exceed the marginal cost of abatement. We can work through the implications of inefficient pricing for a specific example. The sulfur dioxide SO from ( 2) coal-fired electric power generators is currently regulated by a cap-and-trade program under the Clean Air Act. A recent analysis suggests that the cap on SO2 is far too high Muller and Mendelsohn 2009 . The marginal damages of emissions from ( ) most plants exceed the marginal cost of abatement as measured by the market price of permits see Figure 4 . ( ) To equate the marginal cost of abatement with marginal damages, the quantity of allowances should be sharply reduced. At the efficient level of emissions, the cost 125 1666 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

0.1

0.08

0.06

0.04

Fraction of US counties Fraction 0.02

0 Market price of SO2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Allowances: May 2008 Natural log (marginal damage per ton SO2)

Figure 4. Calculated Marginal Damages from SO2 and the Market Price of SO2 Permits by County

of abatement would increase slightly, but GED would fall substantially Muller and ( Mendelsohn 2009 . An efficient regulatory program that equated marginal dam- ) age to marginal cost would lower GED to less than 20 percent of current levels.12 Additionally, the higher abatement costs would probably be partially offset by higher prices for electricity from these plants. Thus, for coal-fired power plants, the current GED VA ratio of 2.2 stems primarily from inefficiently high levels of emissions, as / well as electricity prices that do not reflect social costs. A second explanation concerning why some of these industries have high GED / VA ratios is that the VA as measured in the current national accounts may not accu- rately capture the value of their services. Solid waste combustion facilities, sewage treatment plants, and marinas all provide valuable nonmarket services that are not correctly measured by prices in the national accounts. The national accounts measure the value of these nonmarket services by the cost of production such as sewage fees, tipping fees, and landing costs. However, if the value of these services exceeds the fees, the VA would be undervalued. It is clearly beyond the scope of this study to provide adequate measures of the nonmarket services for these sectors, although a complete set of environmental accounts would include them. It is important to note, however, that the external costs should be included in the decisions about the proper level of nonmarket services, just as they should be for market services. For example, suppose that the output of sewage treatment plants were set to balance marginal costs with marginal benefits. If the marginal costs exclude the external costs, then the output level of sewage treatment would be inefficiently high in just the way that those of coal- fired electric power generators are excessively high as described in the last paragraph. There are several other industries with relatively high GED VA ratios. Water / transportation and steam heat and air conditioning suppliers have GED VA ratios / close to one. The GED VA ratios of sugarcane mills, and manufacturers of carbon / black a dye used in tire manufacturing are 70 percent, livestock producers are ( )

12 Note that the results reported in Muller and Mendelsohn 2009 employ a $2 million VSL. With the $6 million VSL used in this study, the reduction in GED from an efficient( cap )is approximately equal to $30 billion. 126 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1667

56 percent and highway, street, and bridge construction, crop production, and food service contractors are more than one-third. The remaining industries have GED / VA ratios that are 20 percent or less. Table 2 also reports the magnitude of GED from each industry not counting CO . ( 2) Coal-fired electric power generators produce the largest GED of $53 billion annually. Coal plants are responsible for more than one-fourth of GED from the entire US economy. The damages attributed to this industry are larger than the combined GED due to the three next most polluting industries: crop production, $15 billion year, livestock / production, $15 billion year, and construction of roadways and bridges, $13 billion / / year. In declining magnitude of GED, the next two industries are the truck transportation sector which produces GED of $9.2 billion, and the water transportation sector, generating GED equal to $7.7 billion. Oil refineries, solid waste combustion, and food service contractors are also large sources of damages.

C. Sensitivity Analysis

The GED results described above depend on several assumptions embedded in the integrated assessment model that could be viewed as controversial and uncertain. One potential source of uncertainty is the air quality model that connects emissions to ambient concentrations. In separate analyses, the results of the air quality model used in this paper have been compared to the predictions of a state-of-the-art atmospheric transport and chemistry model, Community Multiscale Air Quality CMAQ ( ) Daewon Byun and Kenneth L. Schere 2006 .13 Given the same emissions inventory, ( ) both models produce very similar predicted concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 across the United States. That is, the APEEP model has comparable predictive capabilities as the state-of-the-art atmospheric transport model. Of course, that does not mean the air quality model is perfectly accurate across space. Both air quality models are not able to predict the high ambient concentrations observed at some pollution monitoring stations. This may reflect a bias in the model predictions or it may reflect a bias in the locations of the monitors. In addition to air quality modeling, the results are sensitive to three other assumptions in the integrated assessment model. First, the results are sensitive to the link between exposures to PM2.5 and adult mortality rates. Second, the results are sensitive to whether the value of mortality risks varies by the age of the exposed population. Third, the results are sensitive to the dollar value placed on mortality risks. We vary each of these assumptions in a sensitivity analysis. Table 3 reports the results of the sensitivity analysis and we then compare the GED VA for each perturbation / to the findings in Table 2. The PM -mortality dose-response function reported in Laden et al. 2006 sug- 2.5 ( ) gests that adult mortality rates are almost three times more sensitive to PM2.5 exposure than the function reported in Pope et al. 2002 . Using this more sensitive ( ) dose-response function more than doubles GED VA. However, the GED VA rank- / / ing of each industry with respect to each other remains very close to the ranking in Case I.

13 See Muller and Mendelsohn 2007 for a comparison of APEEP and CMAQ. ( ) 127 1668 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

Table 3—Sensitivity Analysis of Ratio of GED VA / GED VA GED VA GED VA GED VA GED VA Industry Case/ I Case/ II Case/ III Case/ IV Case/ V Solid waste combustion 6.72 14.66 16.75 2.31 11.01 and incineration Petroleum-fired electric 5.13 10.97 13.06 1.77 8.25 power generation Sewage treatment 4.69 9.55 12.09 1.64 7.63 facilities Coal-fired electric 2.20 4.83 5.63 0.78 3.63 power generation Dimension stone mining 1.89 3.92 4.47 0.76 2.98 and quarrying Marinas 1.51 3.27 3.84 0.53 2.46

Other petroleum and 1.35 2.93 3.34 0.48 2.20 coal product mfg. Steam and 1.02 2.18 2.65 0.35 1.68 air conditioning supply Water transport 1.00 2.08 2.43 0.35 1.62

Sugarcane mills 0.70 1.59 1.88 0.24 1.15

Carbon black mfg. 0.70 1.55 1.71 0.25 1.15

Livestock production 0.56 1.22 1.41 0.20 0.92

Highway, street, and 0.37 0.77 0.90 0.15 0.60 bridge construction Crop production 0.34 0.73 0.85 0.13 0.55

Food service contractors 0.34 0.72 0.86 0.12 0.56

Petroleum refineries 0.18 0.38 0.44 0.06 0.30

Truck transportation 0.10 0.24 0.28 0.03 0.18

Notes: Case I baseline assumptions. Case II employs the adult mortality dose-response func- = = tion for PM2.5 in Laden et al. 2006 . Case III employs the $6 million VSL, applied uniformly to all ages USEPA 1999 . Case IV( changes) the VSL= to $2 million Mrozek and Taylor 2002 . Case V changes( the VSL to) $10 million= VSL Viscusi and Moore 1989(. Cases IV and V employ) the VSLY= methodology used in Case I. ( )

In the second sensitivity analysis, Case III, we apply the same value for mortality risks to populations of all ages. In this case, the GED VA ratio increases on aver- / age by 2.5 times. This occurs because most of the deaths caused by air pollution fall on the elderly. Using a uniform VSL places a higher value on mortality risks faced by this age cohort, relative to the age-variant approach reflected in Case I. This raises the overall GED but again has a limited effect on relative rankings. In a third sensitivity analysis, we vary the magnitude of the VSL. Relative to the default scenario in which the VSL is $6 million, the GED VA ratio falls across the / board by two-thirds when we employ a VSL of $2 million in Case IV. A similar 128 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1669

Table 4—GED for Coal-Fired Power Plants by Pollutant and Type of Damage

Pollutant welfare endpoint / SO2 PM2.5 PM10 NOx VOC NH3 Total Mortality 44.20 3.53 0.00 2.75 0.03 0.09 50.6 Morbidity 1.64 0.03 0.12 0.18 0.00 0.00 1.97 Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.37 Timber 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 Materials 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 Visibility 0.22 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.26 Recreation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 46.12 3.57 0.14 3.34 0.03 0.09 53.4

Note: GED in $ billion per year, 2000 prices.

experiment with a VSL of $10 million suggests that the GED VA ratios increase / by about 60 percent relative to the default case. Again, the relative rankings of each industry remain largely the same. The sensitivity analyses reveal that the magnitude of the GED VA ratios is very sensitive to assumptions about the dose-response / functions, the magnitude of the VSL, and how the VSL varies by age. However, these assumptions have almost no effect on the relative rankings across industries. There are a few cases where the ranking of industries according to the GED VA / ratio changes. This is caused by the different mix of pollutants emitted by such industries and the resulting differential impact of the modeling assumptions tested in the sensitivity on their GED.

D. Gross External Damages from Electric Power Generation

In order to get a better sense of how GED results in each industry are calculated, we explore GED produced by coal-fired power plants in more detail. For each power plant that burns coal, we compute GED using the formula in 2 . We then sum GED ( ) across pollutants and sources as shown in expression 3 , which yields industry ( ( )) estimates of damages. Table 4 reports the results by pollutant and damage type for coal-fired power plants. The table reveals that emissions of SO2 are responsible for the bulk of the damages 87 percent . Direct emissions of PM and NO cause most of the remain- ( ) 2.5 X ing damages. Increased mortality is by far the largest component of the GED from coal-fired facilities, explaining 94 percent of the damages. Most of the mortality impacts are caused by SO2 emissions with a smaller amount due to discharges of PM2.5 and NOX. Morbidity effects account for another 4 percent of damages. The damages to crops, timber, material, visibility, and recreation services account for the remaining 2 percent of damages. Table 5 explores GED due to coal-fired, oil-fired, and natural gas power plants. The first three columns estimate GED VA, GED, and GED per kwh. Coal-fired / facilities account for 95 percent of GED of this sector. The electricity produced by coal-fired facilities also has the highest GED per kwh of 2.8 cents. Oil-fired plants have the highest GED VA ratio 5.13 and a GED kwh of 2 cents. The GED for / ( ) / natural gas plants is much smaller, $900 million, and these plants have a much lower GED VA ratio. The GED kwh for natural gas is just 0.1 cents. / / 129 1670 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

Table 5—Electric Power Generation with Carbon Dioxide Damages

Fuel type GED VA GED GED kwh GED* VA GED* GED* kwh / / / / Coal 2.20 53.4 0.0280 2.83 68.7 0.0359 2.3, 56.8, 0.0297, ( ( 3.7 90.1 (0.0472 ) ) ) Petroleum 5.13 1.8 0.0203 6.93 2.5 0.0274 5.5, 2.0, 0.0219, (4.5 (3.4 (0.0374 ) ) ) Natural gas 0.34 0.9 0.0085 1.30 3.4 0.0056 0.6, 1.4, 0.0024, (2.7 (6.9 (0.0113 ) ) )

Notes: GED in $ billion per year, 2000 prices. GED* is GED plus damages from CO2 emissions using a social cost of carbon of $27 tC. Numbers in parentheses use a lower $6 tC and upper $65 tC bound estimate for the social cost of carbon Nordhaus/ 2008b . GED kwh and GED* (kwh/ expressed) in $( kwh./ ) ( ) / / /

We also compute the damages from CO2 emissions for fossil fuel–based electric power generation. Although it would be desirable to make this computation for all industries in the economy, we have data only for CO2 emissions from the electric power generation sector USEIA 2008 . The last three columns of Table 5 display ( ) estimates of GED*, which we define as gross external damages plus the damages from CO2 emissions. The damages from CO2 were estimated by multiplying the tonnage of CO2 times the social cost of carbon, which is the present value of the stream of additional damages that one more ton of emission will cause over time. We use the social cost of carbon for the year 2000. This cost will rise over time as greenhouse gases accumulate and marginal damages increase. We assume that the central estimate of the social cost of carbon is $27 per ton of carbon Nordhaus ( 2008b . ) When climate-change effects from CO2 are included, the damages caused by oil- and coal-fired power plants are between 30 and 40 percent higher. The damage per kwh increases proportionally. This implies that for coal-fired generators, the GED* kwh increases to 3.6 cents. For electricity produced by oil-fired plants, the / GED* kwh rises to 2.7 cents. These estimates suggest that, when using the central / social cost of carbon estimate, CO2 emissions are responsible for about one-fourth of the total air pollution damages produced by these two industries. Although the damages from CO2 are large, they are not as large as GED. For the case of coal-fired power plants, CO2 causes an additional $15 billion of damage, which is relatively small compared to the GED of $53 billion. Using the central social cost of carbon estimate, the GED * VA ratio for coal-fired / generators is 2.8, and for oil-fired generators the GED* VA increases to 6.9. CO / 2 has a relatively bigger effect on GED * for natural gas plants because GED without ( CO for natural gas is relatively low. The GED * VA ratio for natural gas plants is 2) / 1.3, compared to just 0.3 when damages due to CO2 emissions are not counted. Table 5 also displays a range for GED* and GED* VA based on the following esti- / mates of the social cost of carbon: $6 tC and $65 tC Nordhaus 2008b; Tol 2005 . / / ( ) Employing these values, GED* for coal-fired generators ranges from $56.8 billion to $90.1 billion given these lower and upper values. The range of GED* for oil-fired facilities is $2 billion to $3.4 billion. GED * for natural gas plants is between $1.4 billion and $6.9 billion. 130 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1671

100%

$6/ton carbon $27/ton carbon * 80% $65/ton carbon

60%

40% damage as percent of of GED percent as damage 2 20% CO

0% Coal Oil Natural gas

* Figure 5. Percent Share of GED Due to Emissions of CO2, Fossil Fuel Electric Power Generators by Fuel Type

* Figure 5 shows the share of GED that is due to emissions of CO2 for fossil fuel– based electric power generators. This figure shows the relative value of emissions of the local air pollutants which comprise GED and emissions of CO . The figure employs ( ) 2 the three different estimates of the social cost of carbon that are used in Table 5.

For all values of the social cost of carbon, emissions of CO2 have the largest percent impact on the damages from natural gas–fired power plants 40 percent ( to 90 percent . This is because natural gas–fired power plants generate very small ) * amounts of the local pollutants. In contrast, the CO2 share of GED for both coal- fired and oil-fired power generators is between 5 percent and 40 percent. Although coal-fired plants generate a great deal of CO2, they generate greater damages due to other pollutants. In 2002, residential consumers of electricity faced an average market price of 8.4 cents per kwh. Hence, the GED * kwh associated with electric power genera- / tion using coal, oil, and natural gas represents 43, 33, and 7 percent of the average residential retail price of electricity in 2002. Note that residential electricity prices vary by the primary fuel type used in electricity production. In states that primarily rely on coal-fired power, residential electricity prices averaged 6 cents per kwh. The average GED* kwh of coal-generated electricity is 60 percent of / the average residential retail price of electricity in a state relying entirely on coal. In states that rely primarily on natural gas, residential electricity prices averaged 11 cents per kwh. The average GED* kwh of natural gas–generated electricity is / 5 percent of the average residential retail price of electricity in natural-gas states USEIA 2008 . ( ) IV. Conclusions

The present study develops an accounting framework and presents empirical estimates of the external costs of air pollution in the framework of the national 131 1672 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW august 2011

economic accounts. The analytical section shows that there is a natural extension of current national-accounting principles to include pollution. The suggested approach measures the gross external damages caused by each industry as the marginal external damages times the quantity of pollution at each source location. The accounts would require an adjustment of VA by industry by subtracting net external damages, which equals GED minus the cost of pollution permits or any effluent charges. Under the current regulatory context, where permits tend to have zero cost to firms, NED equals GED. The proposed framework captures the full costs of production to society of each industry. We estimate GED from air pollution for each industry in the United States. Because pollution damages per unit of VA vary a great deal from one industry to the next, the integrated accounting framework provides a more accurate accounting of each industry’s net contribution to national output. We note several qualifications. First, our estimates are accounting measures and not measures of economic welfare. The economy has many existing distortions other than those from air pollution—such as taxes, distortions from market power, and other externalities—and existing accounts do not attempt to incorporate those. Second, we note that although GED exceeds VA for some industries, this does not necessarily imply that these industries should be shut down. On a formal level, it signifies that a one-unit increase in output of that industry has additional social costs that are higher than the incremental revenues. At an intuitive level, it indicates that the regulated levels of emissions from the industry are too high. Third, our estimates of GED do not include any accounting costs of emission allowances. We suspect that this assumption introduces a small error, but in fact we cannot determine the sign of the error. Fourth, this study includes only the impact of air pollution and excludes other externalities such as those involving water, soil, and radiation. Fifth, we note that the uncertainties are particularly large for four elements: the value of mortality risks, the relationship of this value to age, the mortality effect of fine particulates, and the social cost of CO2 emissions. Sensitivity analyses using alternative values for these parameters change the magnitude of the results significantly. In the empirical section of the paper, we apply the framework to major air pollutants in the United States for the year 2002. We employ a newly developed comput- erized integrated-assessment model that combines emissions, dispersion, chemical transformations, exposures, health and other impacts, and economic valuation of impacts. The paper follows standard national-accounting principles in applying the marginal valuations to the quantities emitted of each pollutant. Emissions by industry at each source are multiplied by the estimated marginal damage by location to obtain a total damage. The damages are added across sources to estimate industry damages and across industries to estimate sectoral damages. The study estimates that aggregate pollution damages, GED, from the market sector for all industries in 2002 were $184 billion. Summing up GED across two-digit sectors provides a profile of those sectors of the economy that are the heaviest polluters. The two sectors with the highest GED VA ratio are agriculture 38 percent / ( ) and utilities 34 percent . They are responsible for $32 billion and $63 billion of ( ) damages, or 17 percent and 34 percent of the total damages produced by market activity, respectively. The sector with the next highest GED VA ratio is transporta- / tion 10 percent , with air pollution damages of $23 billion. The waste management ( ) sector produces GED equivalent to 8 percent of its VA $11 billion . Interestingly, ( ) 132 VOL. 101 NO. 5 Muller et al.: Environmental Accounting for Pollution 1673 while manufacturing is responsible for $26 billion of damages, the GED VA ratio / of manufacturing is low 1 percent . ( ) The GED VA ratio varies greatly across industries. For some industries sewage / ( treatment plants, solid waste combustion, stone quarrying, marinas, and petroleum- fired and coal-fired power generation , GED actually exceeds conventionally mea- ) sured VA. Crop and livestock production also have high GED VA ratios, which is / surprising given that these activities generally occur in rural low marginal damage ( ) areas. Other industries with high GED VA ratios include water transportation, car- / bon black manufacturing, steam heat and air conditioning supply, and sugarcane mills. It is likely that many of these sources are underregulated. Pollution from households homes and cars , which reflects nonmarket activity, is ( ) not counted in the $184 billion, even though it is an important source of air pollution damages. For example, emissions from light duty cars and trucks produced over $37 billion in air pollution damage and residential combustion of fossil fuels, and wood generated $17 billion in damages in the year 2002. There are many parameters in the integrated-assessment model that are important for damage assessment. As noted above, the mortality dose-response function, the value of mortality risks, and the relationship between mortality values and age are three particularly important assumptions Muller and Mendelsohn 2007 . We ( ) explore alternative values from the literature for these assumptions in a sensitivity analysis. The overall level of GED is sensitive to these assumptions. Further, the assumptions change the estimated impacts of some industries more than others because the mix of pollution emitted varies by industry. However, changing these three central assumptions tends to have a uniform effect on all industries. There are also broader implications about environmental accounting. The present study shows that it is possible to develop national accounts that include pollution. Moreover, the source data are sufficient to include pollution accounts for detailed industries. While the present study has developed methods and estimates only for air pollution, we believe that it would be feasible to extend the analysis to water pollution, solid waste, and hazardous waste pollution. Given the size and distribution of damages found in this study, the development by national statistical agencies of a full set of environmental accounts embedded in the national economic accounts is clearly warranted. While private scholars can make provisional estimates of the present kind, a full set of accounts needs the full-time staff, professional expertise, and access to proprietary source data that only a government agency possesses.

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136 Attachment 4 – Economic Estimation of Climate Damage It is easy to show that the projected damages from climate change must be represented by a strongly convex function of the ultimate change in temperature. The increase of around 1°C observed over the 20th century had few obvious impacts on human activity or natural ecosystems. Moreover, at least as regards human activity, it appears that any negative impacts were offset by the benefits of warming in some cold climates and the effects

of CO2 fertilization. An increase of 2°C of warming, relative to the pre-industrial level is widely considered to be the maximum that would prevent serious damage. If the damage function were linear, this would suggest that the effects of more rapid warming would also be modest, at least by comparison with a growing global economy. In reality, as the IPCC (2007b) shows, warming of 4°C would have a wide range of adverse effects on human activity, and would destroy large numbers of ecosystems. There has been little modeling of the effects of 6°C of warming or more, but it seems clear that such warming would give rise to a mass extinction on a par with events such as the meteorite impact that ended the Mesozoic Era. The impacts on human activity would be unpredictable, but almost certainly catastrophic. It follows that the damage cost, expressed as a function of temperature change must be convex. The relationship between temperature change and atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases is more complex. The climate forcing associated with greenhouse gases is proportional to the logarithm of concentrations, so that the fundamental relationship is concave. However, the final effect depends on a range of feedbacks that tend, on balance, to be positive and convex. So, most models yield a roughly linear relationship between concentration and temperature change. Hence, the climate damage function (2), with atmospheric concentration as its argument, inherits the convexity of the temperature-damage function.

Noting that, by definition CD(G0) = 0, we have 2 (4) kD = CD(GBAU)/(GBAU - G)

The most common way of expressing estimates for CD(G) is as an equivalent steady state reduction in income. We will initially consider the range of estimates presented by Stern (2007), from 5 to 20 per cent of income. It remains to convert these estimates into the same terms as the LHS of (1) and (3), that is, dollars per tonne of

CO2. The first step is to convert the steady state reduction into a present value. We assume that income grows at 2 per cent a year, and use a real discount rate of 4 per cent. Current world income is around $US50*1012 ($US50 trillion), so the present value of the income stream is 50*1012/(0.04-0.02) = 2.5*1015=, ($US 2.5 quadrillion).

On the other side of the equation, 1 ppm of CO2 by volume corresponds to approximately 7.5 Gigatonnes (Gt) 9 of CO2, where a Gigatonne is 10 tonnes. Since some emissions are absorbed by natural sink, we may use the 10 approximate conversion factor 1 ppm of CO2 = 10 tonnes CO2. Using the central Stern value of 10 per cent, 2 6 and (GBAU - G0) ≈ 10 , we obtain kD = 2.5*0.1 = 0.25 Now, differentiating (2) yields ..

(5) dCD/dG = 2 kD (G -G0) = 0.5 (G -G0)

Optimality requires that the optimal G* satisfy dCD/dG* + dCA/dG* = 0, or

(6) 0.5 (G* -G0) = 1/3 (GBAU - G*) which yields the solution G*=470, dCD/dG* = 60

137