Generations of Homeowners
A long-term look at the future of housing and real estate
by Neil Howe
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age
G.I. (1901-1924)
Silent (1925-1942)
Boom (1943-1960)
Gen X (1961-1981)
Millennial (1982-2004)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age
World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20s World War II
Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
The “New Normal” in Housing
• Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
Average Annual Growth in Population of U.S. Adults, The “New Normal” in Housing History and Projections: 1990 to 2050 3.0 • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand 2.5
2.0 2008 Census Projection 2014 Census Projection
1.5 Millions Year per Millions
1.0
Source: U.S. Census (2008-2013) Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context AverageAverage Annual AnnualGrowthGrowth in in Demand Population for ofHousing U.S. Adults, Units, AssumingHistory Constant and Projections: Persons-Per 1990-Unit: to 1990 2050 to 2050 3.01.50 The “New Normal” in Housing
2.5 • 1.25Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand
2.01.00 2008 Census Projection 2014 Census Projection
Millions per Year per Millions 1.50.75 2008 Census Projection (OLD) 2014 Census Projection Millions Year per Millions
1.00.50
Source:Source: U.S. U.S. Census Census (2008 (2008-2013)-2013)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
The “New Normal” in Housing
• Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand
• Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
Population by Sex and Age: 2016
100 The “New Normal”95 G.I.s in Housing 90 BOOMER 85 Silent BULGE 80 • Long-term demographics: Deceleration 75of overall housing demand Age 65+ 70 Boomers 65 60 • Near-term demographics: Good for youth55 & seniors, poor for midlife 50 GEN-X 45 Xers VALLEY 40 35 30 Millennials Age 18+ 25 20 15 MILLENNIAL 10 5 BULGE Homelanders 0 -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 AGE POPULATION Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
PopulationPopulation Projections by Sex and by Age:Sex and 2016 Age: Change from 2016 to 2031 100 The “New Normal95 G.I.s” in Housing BUMPS 90 2031 SHIFT BOOMER 85 Silent BULGEUP! 80 2016 • Long-term demographics: Deceleration 75of overall housing demand Age 65+65+ 70 Boomers 65 60 • Near-term demographics: Good for youth55 & seniors, poor for midlife 50 GEN-X 45 Xers VALLEY 40 35 30 Millennials Age 18+ 25 20 15 MILLENNIAL 10 5 BULGE Homelanders 0 -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 AGE POPULATION Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
Population Projections by Sex and Age: Projected ChangesPopulation in by Population Sex and Age:by 2016 Age Bracket Change from 2016 to 2031 20% 100 The “New Normal”95 G.I.s in Housing 18.0% BUMPS 2016 to 2021 2021 to 202690 2026 to 2031 203116.2% SHIFT 15% BOOMER 85 Silent BULGEUP! 80 2016 75 • Long-term demographics: Deceleration 75of overall housing demand 11.1% Age 6565++ “Starter Homes” “Trade70 -up Homes” Boomers 10% 65 7.7% 60 7.7% • Near-term demographics: Good for youth556.8 &% seniors, poor for midlife 5.1% 55 5% 50 GEN-X 45 “Midlife Luxury Xers VALLEY 40 Homes” Percent Percent Change 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.335% 0.3% 0% 30 Millennials Age 1818++ -0.7% 25 “Senior Living” 20 -1.0% -4.2% -5% 15 MILLENNIAL 10 5 BULGEage 20-29 age 30-39 age 40-49 age 50-64 ageHomelanders 65+ 0 -3,000,000-10% -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 AGE POPULATION Source:Source: U.S. U.S. Census Census Bureau Bureau (2016)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
The “New Normal” in Housing
• Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand
• Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife
• Post-2008: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
The “New Normal” in Housing
• Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand
• Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife
• Post-2008: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context Ditto for Rise in Multifamily
The “New Normal” in Housing
• Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand
• Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife
• PostRise-2008: Shiftin fromRenting owned, single -family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban Fueled by Younger Age Brackets
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context Ditto for Rise in Multifamily
The “New Normal” in Housing
• Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand
• Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife
• PostRise-2008: Shiftin fromRenting owned, single -family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban Fueled by Younger Age Brackets
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
The “New Normal” in Housing
• Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand
• Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife
• Post-2008: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban
• Aging of mortgage credit
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context Boomers with More Mortgage Debt, Millennials Less
The “New Normal” in Housing
• Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand
• Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife
• Post-2008: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban
• Aging of mortgage credit
Source:Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2016)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
The “New Normal” in Housing
• Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand
• Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife
• Post-2008: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban
• Aging of mortgage credit FROM 1980 TO 2012, AN EXTRA 5+ MILLION • Renaissance of multi-generational family living YOUNG ADULTS IN EXTENDED FAMILIES
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context
Percent of adults ages 25 to 34 living in a multigenerational household 25% The “New Normal” in Housing 24%
• Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand 22% 20% • Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife 16% • Post-200815%: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban 15% 17% • Aging of mortgage credit FROM 1980 TO 2012, AN 12% EXTRA 5+ MILLION • Renaissance of multi-generational family living YOUNG ADULTS IN 11% EXTENDED FAMILIES 10% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 Source: Pew Research Center (2012)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age
World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20s World War II
Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age
World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20s World War II
Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) American High TODAY AGE:World War 91 II & OVER
SAMPLE MEMBERS Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High John Kennedy Revolution Ronald Reagan WaltConsciousness Disney Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) JudyRevolution Garland ’90s Boom John Wayne Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) Walter Cronkite ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age
World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20s World War II
Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High TODAY AGE 73 TO 90 Revolution SAMPLE MEMBERS Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) John McCain Revolution ’90s Boom Colin Powell NancyCulture Pelosi Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) Martin Luther’90s Boom King, Jr. War on Terror Elvis Presley Sandra Day O’Connor
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Real Median Family Net Worth, Generation (Born) by Age: 1983Childhood to 2013* Era Coming-of-Age
World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20s underWorld age 34 War II 1983 age 35-44 Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II age 45-54 age 55-64 1995 Consciousness Boom (1943-1960)TODAY AGEAmerican 73 TO High 90 age 65-74 Age 75 + Revolution age 75+ SAMPLE MEMBERS Age 35-44 Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) John McCain Revolution ’90s Boom 2013 Colin Powell NancyCulture Pelosi Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) Martin Luther’90s Boom King, Jr. War on Terror $0 $50,000 $100,000Elvis Presley$150,000 $200,000 $250,000
Sandra2013 DayDollars O’Connor * All series deflated to 2013 dollars with CPI-U-RS Source: Survey of Consumer Finances, Fed (2014 and earlier years)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
SAMPLE MEMBERS Generation (Born) ChildhoodBill Era & Hillary ClintonComing-of-Age George W. Bush World War I Oprah WinfreyGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II Donald Trump Great DepressionSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
How Boomers WillSAMPLE Transform MEMBERS Elderhood Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “ Eraretirement” Coming-of-Age George W. Bush World War I Oprah WinfreyGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II Donald Trump Great DepressionSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
How Boomers WillSAMPLE Transform MEMBERS Elderhood Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “retirement” Era Coming-of-Age George W. Bush World War I Oprah WinfreyGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II Donald Trump Great DepressionSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
How Boomers WillSAMPLE Transform MEMBERS Elderhood Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “retirement” Era Coming-of-Age George W. Bush World War I Oprah WinfreyGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II Donald Trump Great DepressionSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
How Boomers WillSAMPLE Transform MEMBERS Elderhood Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “ Eraretirement” Coming-of-Age George W. Bush • agingWorld in place, War golden I Oprah age of home Winfrey remodelingGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II Donald Trump Great DepressionSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
Boomers “AgingHow Boomers inWillSAMPLE TransformPlace” MEMBERS Elderhood Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “ Eraretirement” Coming-of-Age George W. Bush • agingWorld in place, War golden I Oprah age of home Winfrey remodelingGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II Donald Trump Great DepressionSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis MillennialBoomers’ families(1982-2004) But the share living ’90s Boom in detachedWar singleon Terror-family are getting smaller homes is unchanged
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
Boomers “HowAging Boomers inWillSAMPLE TransformPlace MEMBERS Elderhood” Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “ Eraretirement” Coming-of-Age George W. Bush • agingWorld in place, War golden I Oprah age of home Winfrey remodelingGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II Donald Trump Great DepressionSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis MillennialBoomers’ families(1982-2004) But the share living ’90s Boom in detachedWar singleon Terror-family are getting smaller homes is unchanged
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
Boomers “HowAging Boomers inWillSAMPLE TransformPlace MEMBERS Elderhood” Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “ Eraretirement” Coming-of-Age George W. Bush • agingWorld in place, War golden I Oprah age of home Winfrey remodelingGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II Donald Trump Great DepressionSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis MillennialBoomers’ families(1982-2004) But the share living ’90s Boom in detachedWar singleon Terror-family are getting smaller homes is unchanged
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
How Boomers WillSAMPLE Transform MEMBERS Elderhood Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “ Eraretirement” Coming-of-Age George W. Bush • agingWorld in place, War golden I Oprah age of home Winfrey remodelingGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II • rising inequality, personalDonald risk- takingTrump Great DepressionSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
Age 50-64, 2002-14, Show Rising HowRates Boomers in… WillSAMPLE Transform MEMBERS Elderhood Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “ Eraretirement” Coming-of-Age George W. Bush • drug OD fatality rate • agingWorld in place, War golden I Oprah age of home Winfrey remodelingGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) • STD rate Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II • rising inequality, personalDonald risk- takingTrump • Hepatitis C infection rate Great DepressionSteve Jobs • Silentauto/motorcycle fatality(1925- 1942)rate American High World War II • reported “unhappiness” rate • homelessness rate Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High • incarceration rate Revolution • suicide rate Consciousness Culture Wars • Genobesity X rate (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom • type II diabetes rate • disability (reported ADL) rate Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
How Boomers WillSAMPLE Transform MEMBERS Elderhood Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “ Eraretirement” Coming-of-Age George W. Bush • agingWorld in place, War golden I Oprah age of home Winfrey remodelingGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II • rising inequality, personalDonald risk- takingTrump • risingGreat cultural Depression influenceSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations TODAY AGE 55 TO 72
How Boomers WillSAMPLE Transform MEMBERS Elderhood Bill & Hillary Clinton Generation (Born) • end ofChildhood traditional “ Eraretirement” Coming-of-Age George W. Bush • agingWorld in place, War golden I Oprah age of home Winfrey remodelingGreat Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20sBruce SpringsteenWorld War II • rising inequality, personalDonald risk- takingTrump • risingGreat cultural Depression influenceSteve Jobs Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II
Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) TODAYChildhood AGE 34 Era TO 54 Coming-of-Age
SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) BarackRoaring Obama ‘20s World War II Chris Christie SherylGreat SandbergDepression Silent (1925-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II Michael Jordan Kurt Cobain Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Brief Chronology of the Evil-Child Movie Era TODAY AGE 34 TO 54 Generation1964 Children(Born) of the Damned Childhood Era Coming-of-Age 1968 Rosemary’s Baby SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. 1973 The(1901 Exorcist-1924) BarackRoaring Obama ‘20s World War II 1974 It’s Alive! Chris Christie 1976 Look What’s Happened to Rosemary’s Baby SherylGreat SandbergDepression Silent 1976 The(1925 Omen-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II 1976 Carrie Michael Jordan 1977 Exorcist II: The Heretic Kurt Cobain Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High 1978 It Lives Again Revolution 1978 Damien—Omen II 1978 Halloween Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) 1980 The Children Revolution ’90s Boom 1981 The Final Conflict 1981 Halloween II Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) 1984 Firestarter ’90s Boom War on Terror 1984 Children of the Corn
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
College Freshmen Survey, 1967-98: Personal ObjectivesTODAY Considered AGE 34 Important... TO 54 Generation90% (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) 80% BarackRoaring Obama ‘20s World War II Chris Christie 70% SherylGreat SandbergDepression Silent (1925-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II Michael Jordan 60% be very well off financially Kurt Cobain Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) Americandevelop High meaningful philosophy of life 50% Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X 40% (1961-1981)
Revolution ’90s Boom Percent Percent All of Freshmen College 30% Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982’90s Boom1985 1988 1991 War1994 on Terror1997
Source: UCLA Freshman Poll, "The American Freshman" (1997, 1999)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) TODAYChildhood AGE 34 Era TO 54 Coming-of-Age
SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) How Gen-Xers Will BarackTransformRoaring Obama ‘20s Midlife World War II Chris Christie • Economic stress, theSheryl “newGreat frugality” SandbergDepression Silent (1925-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II Michael Jordan Kurt Cobain Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Change in Real Median Household Net Worth, by Age: 2007 to 2010 Generation (Born) TODAYChildhood AGE 34 Era TO 54 Coming-of-Age Under Age 35 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75+ 0% SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) How Gen-Xers Will BarackTransformRoaring Obama ‘20s Midlife World War II -10% Chris Christie • Economic stress, theSheryl “newGreat frugality” SandbergDepression Silent (1925-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II -20% Michael Jordan Kurt Cobain Consciousness Boom-30% (1943-1960) American High Revolution
-40% Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom -50% Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror -60% Source: SCF, Fed Bulletin (2007 and 2010)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) TODAYChildhood AGE 34 Era TO 54 Coming-of-Age
SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) How Gen-Xers Will BarackTransformRoaring Obama ‘20s Midlife World War II Chris Christie • Economic stress, theSheryl “newGreat frugality SandbergDepression” Silent (1925-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II Michael Jordan Kurt Cobain Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Real Median Family Income by Age Bracket, from 1885 TODAYto 1994 BirthAGE 34 Cohort* TO 54 Generation$90,000 (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) How Gen-Xers Will BarackTransformRoaring Obama ‘20s Midlife World War II $70,000 Chris Christie • Economic stress, theSheryl “newGreat frugality” SandbergDepression Silent (1925-1942) American High 1975-84 WorldJeff BezosWar II Michael Jordan dollars $50,000 Kurt Cobain Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High 2012 2012 Revolution $30,000 Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) 1985-94 Revolution ’90s Boom $10,000 Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Age of householder * All series deflated to 2012 dollars with CPI-U-RS Source: Census (2014)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) TODAYChildhood AGE 34 Era TO 54 Coming-of-Age
SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) How Gen-Xers Will BarackTransformRoaring Obama ‘20s Midlife World War II Chris Christie • Economic stress, theSheryl “newGreat frugality” SandbergDepression Silent (1925-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II • Sheltered kids, closeMichael family Jordan Kurt Cobain Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) TODAYChildhood AGE 34 Era TO 54 Coming-of-Age
SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) How Gen-Xers Will BarackTransformRoaring Obama ‘20s Midlife World War II Chris Christie • Economic stress, theSheryl “newGreat frugality SandbergDepression” Silent (1925-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II • Sheltered kids, closeMichael family Jordan Kurt Cobain Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) TODAYChildhood AGE 34 Era TO 54 Coming-of-Age
SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) How Gen-Xers Will BarackTransformRoaring Obama ‘20s Midlife World War II Chris Christie • Economic stress, theSheryl “newGreat frugality SandbergDepression” Silent (1925-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II • Sheltered kids, closeMichael family Jordan • Fall in social trust, riseKurt in personal Cobain empowerment Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) TODAYChildhood AGE 34 Era TO 54 Coming-of-Age
SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) How Gen-Xers Will BarackTransformRoaring Obama ‘20s Midlife World War II Chris Christie • Economic stress, theSheryl “newGreat frugality SandbergDepression” Silent (1925-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II • Sheltered kids, closeMichael family Jordan • Fall in social trust, riseKurt in personal Cobain empowerment Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations
Generation (Born) TODAYChildhood AGE 34 Era TO 54 Coming-of-Age
SAMPLEWorld MEMBERS War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) How Gen-Xers Will BarackTransformRoaring Obama ‘20s Midlife World War II Chris Christie • Economic stress, theSheryl “newGreat frugality SandbergDepression” Silent (1925-1942) American High WorldJeff BezosWar II • Sheltered kids, closeMichael family Jordan • Fall in social trust, riseKurt in personal Cobain empowerment Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution
Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age
World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 Roaring ‘20s World War II SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James Taylor Swift Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham Veronica Roth Revolution Bruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James Taylor Swift Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham Veronica Roth Revolution Bruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials Google Ngram Mentions of Phrase: “Kids are Special” 900 Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II 600 • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High Sentences • risk averse WorldLeBron War II James 10 • positive Taylor Swift • team playing Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham 300 • conventional Veronica Roth Revolution • achievement orientedBruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial10 per Mentions (1982-2004) 0 ’90s Boom War on Terror 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Googlebooks Ngram Viewer (https://books.google.com/ngrams); 2015
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James Taylor Swift Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham Veronica Roth Revolution Bruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation Examples(Born) of Child ProtectionChildhood Policies Era Since 1982Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 Roaring ‘20s World War II child restraint & helmet •rulesspecial “child-proof” homes • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS blanket Medicaid coverage schoolGreat Depressionvaccination checks Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High “youth rules” in the workplace VWorld ChipsLeBron War II James • positive Taylor Swift Zero Tolerance rules at school• team playingvideo game ratings Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham Megan laws • conventionalAmberVeronica Alerts Roth Revolution “graduated” auto licenses• achievement“cops oriented inBruno shops” Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) dragnets for “dead-beat” dads urbanRevolution curfews ’90s Boom “safe place” havens for kids drug-free zones near schools Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
(*) is percent of “Living with Friends” consisting of unmarried cohabitating couples without children. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2015)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James • positive Taylor Swift • team playing Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham • conventional Veronica Roth Revolution • achievement orientedBruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
(*) is percent of “Living with Friends” consisting of unmarried cohabitating couples without children. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2015)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James Taylor Swift Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham Veronica Roth Revolution Bruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials Google Ngram Mentions of Phrase: Violent Crime,“Kids Rate are for SpecialOffenders” (age 12-20) 900 and Victims (age 16-19), 1973 to 2010* Generation Examples(Born) of Child ProtectionChildhood Policies Era Since 1982Coming-of-Age 140 Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 120 Roaring ‘20s World War II child restraint & helmet •rulesspecial “child-proof” homes 600100 • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS blanket Medicaid coverage schoolGreat Depressionvaccination checks Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High Sentences • risk averse 80 “youth rules” in the workplace VWorld ChipsLeBron War II James 10 • positive Taylor Swift 10 60 Zero Tolerance rules at school• team playingvideo game ratings Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham 300 Megan laws • conventionalAmberVeronica Alerts Roth Revolution
Rate per per Rate 1,000 40 “graduated” autoOffender licenses Rate• achievementVictimization“cops oriented in BrunoRate shops” Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X 20 (1961-1981) dragnets for “dead-beat” dads urbanRevolution curfews ’90s Boom 0 “safe place” havens for kids drug-free zones near schools Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial per Mentions (1982-2004) 0 ’90s Boom War on Terror
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988* only until1990 2008 for 1992offenders; violent1994crimes are1996 murders, rapes,1998 robberies,2000 and assaults. (*) is percent of “Living with Friends” consisting of unmarried cohabitating couples without children. Source: U.S.Source: Bureau U.S. of CensusJustice BureauStatistics (2015) (2012)
Googlebooks Ngram Viewer (https://books.google.com/ngrams); 2015
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials Google Ngram Mentions of Phrase: ShareViolent of High Crime, “KidsSchool Rate areStudents for SpecialOffenders from” (age1991 12 to- 20)2011 900 and VictimsWho (age Report 16-19), ...1973 to 2010* Generation30% Examples(Born) of Child ProtectionChildhood Policies Era Since 1982Coming-of-Age 140 11.8% Emerging Peer Personality 25.9% Having Carried a Weapon at SchoolWorld (right War scale) I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 11% 120 Roaring ‘20s World War II 25% child restraint & helmet •rulesspecial “child-proof” homes 600100 • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS blanket Medicaid coverage schoolGreat Depressionvaccination checks Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High Sentences 20% • risk averseWorld War II 1,000 80 “youth rules” in the workplace V ChipsLeBron James 9% 10 16.7% • positive. TaylorRarely/ SwiftNever Wearing a Seatbelt 10 60 Zero Tolerance rules at school• team playingvideo game ratings Consciousness Boom15% (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham 300 Megan laws • conventionalAmberVeronica Alerts Roth Revolution
Rate per per Rate 40 7% Driving“graduatedwhile Drinking” autoOffender licenses Rate• achievementVictimization“cops oriented in BrunoRate shops” Mars 10% Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X 20 (1961-1981) dragnets for “dead-beat” dads urbanRevolution curfews ’90s Boom 8.2% 7.7% 0 “safe place” havens for kids drug-free zones near schools 5.4% 5% Culture Wars Financial Crisis 5% Millennial per Mentions (1982-2004) 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001’90s Boom2003 2005 2007 War2009 on Terror2011
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988* only until1990 2008 Drinkingfor 1992offenders; and seatbelts, violent1994crimes over last are1996 30murders, days; weapon, rapes,1998 robberies,over last2000 6and months. assaults. (*) is percent of “Living with Friends” consisting of unmarried cohabitating couples without children. Source: CentersSource: for Disease U.S.Source: BureauControl U.S. ofand CensusJustice Prevention BureauStatistics ( 2013(2015 (2012)) )
Googlebooks Ngram Viewer (https://books.google.com/ngrams); 2015
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials Google Ngram Mentions of Phrase: ShareViolent of High Crime, “KidsSchool Rate areStudents for SpecialOffenders from” (age1991 12to- 202011) 900 and VictimsWho (age Report 16-19), ...1973 to 2010* Generation30% Examples(Born) of Child ProtectionChildhood Policies Era Since 1982Coming-of-Age 140 11.8% Emerging Peer Personality 25.9% Having Carried a Weapon at SchoolWorld (right War scale) I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 11% 120 Roaring ‘20s World War II 25% child restraint & helmet •rulesspecial “child-proof” homes 600100 • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS blanket Medicaid coverage schoolGreat Depressionvaccination checks Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High Sentences 20% • risk averseWorld War II 1,000 80 “youth rules” in the workplace V ChipsLeBron James 9% 10 16.7% • positive. TaylorRarely/ SwiftNever Wearing a Seatbelt 10 60 Zero Tolerance rules at school• team playingvideo game ratings Consciousness Boom15% (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham 300 Megan laws • conventionalAmberVeronica Alerts Roth Revolution
Rate per per Rate 40 7% Driving“graduatedwhile Drinking” autoOffender licenses Rate• achievementVictimization“cops oriented in BrunoRate shops” Mars 10% Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X 20 (1961-1981) dragnets for “dead-beat” dads urbanRevolution curfews ’90s Boom 8.2% 7.7% 0 “safe place” havens for kids drug-free zones near schools 5.4% 5% Culture Wars Financial Crisis 5% Millennial per Mentions (1982-2004) 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001’90s Boom2003 2005 2007 War2009 on Terror2011
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988* only until1990 2008 Drinkingfor 1992offenders; and seatbelts, violent1994crimes over last are1996 30murders, days; weapon, rapes,1998 robberies,over last2000 6and months. assaults. Source: CentersSource: for Disease U.S. BureauControl ofand Justice Prevention Statistics (2013 (2012) )
Googlebooks Ngram Viewer (https://books.google.com/ngrams); 2015
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James • positive Taylor Swift Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham Veronica Roth Revolution Bruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James • positive Taylor Swift • team playing Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham • conventional Veronica Roth Revolution • achievement orientedBruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation Examples(Born) of Child ProtectionChildhood Policies Era Since 1982Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 Roaring ‘20s World War II child restraint & helmet •rulesspecial “child-proof” homes • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS blanket Medicaid coverage schoolGreat Depressionvaccination checks Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High “youth rules” in the workplace VWorld ChipsLeBron War II James • positive Taylor Swift Zero Tolerance rules at school• team playingvideo game ratings Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham Megan laws • conventionalAmberVeronica Alerts Roth Revolution “graduated” auto licenses• achievement“cops oriented inBruno shops” Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) dragnets for “dead-beat” dads urbanRevolution curfews ’90s Boom “safe place” havens for kids drug-free zones near schools Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James • positive Taylor Swift • team playing Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham Veronica Roth Revolution Bruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
ShareShareViolent ofof HighHigh Crime, School S choolRate Students for Seniors Offenders from Who (age1991 V olunteer, 12to- 202011) and VictimsWho (age1976 Report 16--201119), ...1973 to 2010* Generation90%30% Examples(Born) of Child ProtectionChildhood Policies Era Since 1982Coming-of-Age 140 11.8% Emerging Peer Personality 25.9% Having Carried a Weapon at SchoolWorld (right War scale) I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 88.511%% 85%120 As reported by all seniors Roaring ‘20s World War II 25% child restraint & helmet •rulesspecial “child-proof” homes 100 • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS 80% blanketAs reported Medicaid by incoming coverage college freshmenschoolGreat Depressionvaccination checks Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High 20% • risk averseWorld War II 1,000 80 “youth rules” in the workplace V ChipsLeBron James 9% 75% 16.7% • positive. TaylorRarely/ SwiftNever Wearing a Seatbelt 76.9% 60 Zero Tolerance rules at school• team playingvideo game ratings Consciousness Boom15% (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham 70% Megan laws • conventionalAmberVeronica Alerts Roth Revolution
Rate per per Rate 40 7% Driving“graduatedwhile Drinking” autoOffender licenses Rate• achievementVictimization“cops oriented in BrunoRate shops” Mars 10% Consciousness Culture Wars Gen65% X 20 (1961-1981) dragnets for “dead-beat” dads urbanRevolution curfews ’90s Boom 8.2% 7.7% 0 “safe place” havens for kids drug-free zones near schools 5.4% 60%5% Culture Wars Financial Crisis 5% Millennial (1982-2004) 1976199119791993198219951985 19971988 19991991 20011994’90s Boom20031997 20002005 20032007 War20062009 on Terror20112009 2012 * only until 2008 Drinkingfor offenders; and seatbelts, violent crimes over last are 30murders, days; weapon, rapes, robberies,over last 6and months. assaults. (*) is percent of “Living with Friends” consisting of unmarried cohabitating couples withoutSource: children. Monitoring the Future, University ofSource:Michigan Centers (2011Source:) for and Disease The U.S.Source: American BureauControl U.S. of andFreshman, CensusJustice Prevention BureauStatisticsUCLA ( 2013( 2015( (20132012)) ))
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials Google Ngram Mentions of Phrase: ShareShareViolent ofof HighHigh Crime, “School SKids choolRate areStudents for S eniors SpecialOffenders from W”ho (age1991 V olunteer, 12to- 202011) 900 and VictimsWho (age1976 Report 16--201119), ...1973 to 2010* Generation90%30% Examples(Born) of Child ProtectionChildhood Policies Era Since 1982Coming-of-Age 140 11.8% Emerging Peer Personality 25.9% Having Carried a Weapon at SchoolWorld (right War scale) I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 88.511%% 85%120 As reported by all seniors Roaring ‘20s World War II 25% child restraint & helmet •rulesspecial “child-proof” homes 600100 • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS 80% blanketAs reported Medicaid by incoming coverage college freshmenschoolGreat Depressionvaccination checks Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High Sentences 20% • risk averseWorld War II 1,000 80 “youth rules” in the workplace V ChipsLeBron James 9% 10 75% 16.7% • positive. TaylorRarely/ SwiftNever Wearing a Seatbelt 76.9% 10 60 Zero Tolerance rules at school• team playingvideo game ratings Consciousness Boom15% (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham 30070% Megan laws • conventionalAmberVeronica Alerts Roth Revolution
Rate per per Rate 40 7% Driving“graduatedwhile Drinking” autoOffender licenses Rate• achievementVictimization“cops oriented in BrunoRate shops” Mars 10% Consciousness Culture Wars Gen65% X 20 (1961-1981) dragnets for “dead-beat” dads urbanRevolution curfews ’90s Boom 8.2% 7.7% 0 “safe place” havens for kids drug-free zones near schools 5.4% 60%5% Culture Wars Financial Crisis 5% Millennial per Mentions (1982-2004) 0 1976199119791993198219951985 19971988 19991991 20011994’90s Boom20031997 20002005 20032007 War20062009 on Terror20112009 2012 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988* only until1990 2008 Drinkingfor 1992offenders; and seatbelts, violent1994crimes over last are1996 30murders, days; weapon, rapes,1998 robberies,over last2000 6and months. assaults. (*) is percent of “Living with Friends” consisting of unmarried cohabitating couples withoutSource: children. Monitoring the Future, University ofSource:Michigan Centers (2011Source:) for and Disease The U.S.Source: American BureauControl U.S. of andFreshman, CensusJustice Prevention BureauStatisticsUCLA ( 2013( 2015( (20132012)) ))
Googlebooks Ngram Viewer (https://books.google.com/ngrams); 2015
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
ShareShareViolent ofof HighHigh Crime, School S choolRate Students for Seniors Offenders from Who (age1991 V olunteer, 12to- 202011) and VictimsWho (age1976 Report 16--201119), ...1973 to 2010* Generation90%30% Examples(Born) of Child ProtectionChildhood Policies Era Since 1982Coming-of-Age 140 11.8% Emerging Peer Personality 25.9% Having Carried a Weapon at SchoolWorld (right War scale) I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 88.511%% 85%120 As reported by all seniors Roaring ‘20s World War II 25% child restraint & helmet •rulesspecial “child-proof” homes 100 • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS 80% blanketAs reported Medicaid by incoming coverage college freshmenschoolGreat Depressionvaccination checks Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High 20% • risk averseWorld War II 1,000 80 “youth rules” in the workplace V ChipsLeBron James 9% 75% 16.7% • positive. TaylorRarely/ SwiftNever Wearing a Seatbelt 76.9% 60 Zero Tolerance rules at school• team playingvideo game ratings Consciousness Boom15% (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham 70% Megan laws • conventionalAmberVeronica Alerts Roth Revolution
Rate per per Rate 40 7% Driving“graduatedwhile Drinking” autoOffender licenses Rate• achievementVictimization“cops oriented in BrunoRate shops” Mars 10% Consciousness Culture Wars Gen65% X 20 (1961-1981) dragnets for “dead-beat” dads urbanRevolution curfews ’90s Boom 8.2% 7.7% 0 “safe place” havens for kids drug-free zones near schools 5.4% 60%5% Culture Wars Financial Crisis 5% Millennial (1982-2004) 1976199119791993198219951985 19971988 19991991 20011994’90s Boom20031997 20002005 20032007 War20062009 on Terror20112009 2012 * only until 2008 Drinkingfor offenders; and seatbelts, violent crimes over last are 30murders, days; weapon, rapes, robberies,over last 6and months. assaults. (*) is percent of “Living with Friends” consisting of unmarried cohabitating couples withoutSource: children. Monitoring the Future, University ofSource:Michigan Centers (2011Source:) for and Disease The U.S.Source: American BureauControl U.S. of andFreshman, CensusJustice Prevention BureauStatisticsUCLA ( 2013( 2015( (20132012)) ))
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Government should promote the principle of community Generation Examples(Born) of Child ProtectionChildhood Policies Era Since 1982Coming-of-Age 80% Government should promote the Emerging Peerprinciple Personality of self reliance 71% World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 Roaring ‘20s World War II child restraint & helmet •rulesspecial60%“child-proof” homes 60% • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS blanket Medicaid coverage schoolGreat Depressionvaccination50 %checks50% Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High • risk averseWorld War II “youth rules” in the workplace V Chips40LeBron% James 40% • positive Taylor Swift Zero Tolerance rules at school• team playingvideo game ratings Consciousness Boom (1943-1960)29% AmericanLena High Dunham Megan laws • conventionalAmberVeronica Alerts Roth Revolution “graduated20% ” auto licenses• achievement“cops oriented inBruno shops” Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) dragnets for “dead-beat” dads urbanRevolution curfews ’90s Boom “safe place0% ” havens for kids drug-free zones near schools Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982Millennials-2004) Gen Xers Boomers ’90s Boom War on Terror Source: Congressional Institute-LifeCourse survey (2014) (*) is percent of “Living with Friends” consisting of unmarried cohabitating couples without children. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2015)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James • positive Taylor Swift • team playing Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham • conventional Veronica Roth Revolution Bruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Get along withGreat parentsDepression Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James • positive Taylor Swift 82% of teens report “no• team problems playing” with any familyConsciousness member— Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham up from 75• %conventional in 1983, andVeronica 48% Rothin 1974Revolution. • achievement orientedBruno Mars ConsciousnessSource: National AssociationCulture of Secondary SchoolWars Principals (2005) Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Living Arrangements of 25- to 29-Year-Olds Generation (Born) 2007 vs.Childhood 2014 Era Coming-of-Age 100% Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II 80% 41% 50% • shelteredFamily SAMPLEHead MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High • risk averseWorld War II 60% Living AloneLeBron James • positive Taylor Swift 10% • team playing Lena Dunham Consciousness Boom (194311-%1960) Living Americanwith Friends High 40% • conventional Veronica Roth21% (5Revolution%*) 17% (3%*)• achievement orientedBruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen20% X (1961-1981) Living with Family Revolution ’90s Boom 22% 27% Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial0% (1982-2004) 2007 ’90s Boom 2014War on Terror
(*) is percent of “Living with Friends” consisting of unmarried cohabitating couples without children. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2015)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James • positive Taylor Swift • team playing Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham • conventional Veronica Roth Revolution • achievement orientedBruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
“The idea of long-term planning is important to me.” Percent agree Generation100% (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Now When in 20s World War I Great Depression G.I. 80% (1901-1924) 80% TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 Roaring ‘20s 76% World War II SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James 48%Taylor Swift 50% Lena Dunham Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High 39% Veronica Roth Revolution Bruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror 0% Millennials Gen Xers Boomers
Source: Congressional Institute-LifeCourse survey (2014)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Government should promote the principle of community Generation Examples(Born) of Child ProtectionChildhood Policies Era Since 1982Coming-of-Age 80% Government should promote the Emerging Peerprinciple Personality of self reliance 71% World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 Roaring ‘20s World War II child restraint & helmet •rulesspecial60%“child-proof” homes 60% • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS blanket Medicaid coverage schoolGreat Depressionvaccination50 %checks50% Silent (1925-1942) Mark Zuckerberg American High • risk averseWorld War II “youth rules” in the workplace V Chips40LeBron% James 40% • positive Taylor Swift Zero Tolerance rules at school• team playingvideo game ratings Consciousness Boom (1943-1960)29% AmericanLena High Dunham Megan laws • conventionalAmberVeronica Alerts Roth Revolution “graduated20% ” auto licenses• achievement“cops oriented inBruno shops” Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) dragnets for “dead-beat” dads urbanRevolution curfews ’90s Boom “safe place0% ” havens for kids drug-free zones near schools Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982Millennials-2004) Gen Xers Boomers ’90s Boom War on Terror Source: Congressional Institute-LifeCourse survey (2014)
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Millennials
Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age Emerging Peer Personality World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) TODAY AGE 11 TO 33 • special Roaring ‘20s World War II • sheltered SAMPLE MEMBERS Great Depression Silent (1925-1942)• risk averse Mark Zuckerberg American High WorldLeBron War II James • positive Taylor Swift • team playing Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) AmericanLena High Dunham • conventional Veronica Roth Revolution • achievement orientedBruno Mars Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom
Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Generations of Homeowners
A long-term look at the future of housing and real estate
by Neil Howe
Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066