Generations of Homeowners A long-term look at the future of housing and real estate by Neil Howe Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age G.I. (1901-1924) Silent (1925-1942) Boom (1943-1960) Gen X (1961-1981) Millennial (1982-2004) Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20s World War II Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context The “New Normal” in Housing • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context Average Annual Growth in Population of U.S. Adults, The “New Normal” in Housing History and Projections: 1990 to 2050 3.0 • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand 2.5 2.0 2008 Census Projection 2014 Census Projection 1.5 Millions per Year Millions 1.0 Source: U.S. Census (2008-2013) Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context AverageAverage Annual AnnualGrowthGrowth in in Demand Population for ofHousing U.S. Adults, Units, AssumingHistory Constant and Projections: Persons-Per 1990-Unit: to 1990 2050 to 2050 3.01.50 The “New Normal” in Housing 2.5 • 1.25Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand 2.01.00 2008 Census Projection 2014 Census Projection Millions per Year 1.50.75 2008 Census Projection (OLD) 2014 Census Projection Millions per Year Millions 1.00.50 Source:Source: U.S. U.S. Census Census (2008 (2008-2013)-2013) Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context The “New Normal” in Housing • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand • Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context Population by Sex and Age: 2016 100 The “New Normal”95 G.I.s in Housing 90 BOOMER 85 Silent BULGE 80 • Long-term demographics: Deceleration 75of overall housing demand Age 65+ 70 Boomers 65 60 • Near-term demographics: Good for youth55 & seniors, poor for midlife 50 GEN-X 45 Xers VALLEY 40 35 30 Millennials Age 18+ 25 20 15 MILLENNIAL 10 5 BULGE Homelanders 0 -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 AGE POPULATION Source: U.S. Census Bureau Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context PopulationPopulation Projections by Sex and by Age:Sex and 2016 Age: Change from 2016 to 2031 100 The “New Normal95 G.I.s” in Housing BUMPS 90 2031 SHIFT BOOMER 85 Silent BULGEUP! 80 2016 • Long-term demographics: Deceleration 75of overall housing demand Age 65+65+ 70 Boomers 65 60 • Near-term demographics: Good for youth55 & seniors, poor for midlife 50 GEN-X 45 Xers VALLEY 40 35 30 Millennials Age 18+ 25 20 15 MILLENNIAL 10 5 BULGE Homelanders 0 -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 AGE POPULATION Source: U.S. Census Bureau Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context Population Projections by Sex and Age: Projected ChangesPopulation in by Population Sex and Age:by 2016 Age Bracket Change from 2016 to 2031 20% 100 The “New Normal”95 G.I.s in Housing 18.0% BUMPS 2016 to 2021 2021 to 202690 2026 to 2031 203116.2% SHIFT 15% BOOMER 85 Silent BULGEUP! 80 2016 75 • Long-term demographics: Deceleration 75of overall housing demand 11.1% Age 6565++ “Starter Homes” “Trade70 -up Homes” Boomers 10% 65 7.7% 60 7.7% • Near-term demographics: Good for youth556.8 &% seniors, poor for midlife 5.1% 55 5% 50 GEN-X 45 “Midlife Luxury Xers VALLEY 40 Homes” Percent Percent Change 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.335% 0.3% 0% 30 Millennials Age 1818++ -0.7% 25 “Senior Living” 20 -1.0% -4.2% -5% 15 MILLENNIAL 10 5 BULGEage 20-29 age 30-39 age 40-49 age 50-64 ageHomelanders 65+ 0 -3,000,000-10% -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 AGE POPULATION Source:Source: U.S. U.S. Census Census Bureau Bureau (2016) Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context The “New Normal” in Housing • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand • Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife • Post-2008: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context The “New Normal” in Housing • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand • Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife • Post-2008: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context Ditto for Rise in Multifamily The “New Normal” in Housing • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand • Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife • PostRise-2008: Shiftin fromRenting owned, single -family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban Fueled by Younger Age Brackets Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context Ditto for Rise in Multifamily The “New Normal” in Housing • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand • Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife • PostRise-2008: Shiftin fromRenting owned, single -family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban Fueled by Younger Age Brackets Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context The “New Normal” in Housing • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand • Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife • Post-2008: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban • Aging of mortgage credit Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context Boomers with More Mortgage Debt, Millennials Less The “New Normal” in Housing • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand • Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife • Post-2008: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban • Aging of mortgage credit Source:Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2016) Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context The “New Normal” in Housing • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand • Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife • Post-2008: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban • Aging of mortgage credit FROM 1980 TO 2012, AN EXTRA 5+ MILLION • Renaissance of multi-generational family living YOUNG ADULTS IN EXTENDED FAMILIES Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Socio-Demographic Context Percent of adults ages 25 to 34 living in a multigenerational household 25% The “New Normal” in Housing 24% • Long-term demographics: Deceleration of overall housing demand 22% 20% • Near-term demographics: Good for youth & seniors, poor for midlife 16% • Post-200815%: Shift from owned, single-family, suburban to rented, multi-unit, urban 15% 17% • Aging of mortgage credit FROM 1980 TO 2012, AN 12% EXTRA 5+ MILLION • Renaissance of multi-generational family living YOUNG ADULTS IN 11% EXTENDED FAMILIES 10% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 Source: Pew Research Center (2012) Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20s World War II Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High Revolution Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) Revolution ’90s Boom Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) ’90s Boom War on Terror Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20s World War II Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) American High TODAY AGE:World War 91 II & OVER SAMPLE MEMBERS Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High John Kennedy Revolution Ronald Reagan WaltConsciousness Disney Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) JudyRevolution Garland ’90s Boom John Wayne Culture Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) Walter Cronkite ’90s Boom War on Terror Copyright © 2016 Saeculum Research | 9080 Eaton Park Road, Great Falls, VA 22066 Recent U.S. Generations Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of-Age World War I Great Depression G.I. (1901-1924) Roaring ‘20s World War II Great Depression Silent (1925-1942) American High World War II Consciousness Boom (1943-1960) American High TODAY AGE 73 TO 90 Revolution SAMPLE MEMBERS Consciousness Culture Wars Gen X (1961-1981) John McCain Revolution ’90s Boom Colin Powell NancyCulture Pelosi Wars Financial Crisis Millennial (1982-2004) Martin Luther’90s Boom King, Jr.