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INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY PHASE CLASSIFICATION THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN UPDATED IPC REPORT December 2014 Produced by the IPC Technical Working Group in South Sudan OVERVIEW On 23 September 2014, the Minister of Agriculture the 14th Round of the Food Security and Nutrition of the Government of the Republic of South Sudan Monitoring System (FSNMS 14) survey. The IPC formally endorsed the latest Integrated Food Technical Working Group validated and finalized Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis for South the technical details of the updated projections. Sudan, which included a projection of the country’s Factored into the update is insecurity (either as a food security situation until March 2015. result of military conflicts or of inter-clan fighting) and humanitarian assistance. The food security projections for January to March 2015 have now been updated and are included The information in the previous September herein. Approximately 40 participants from more comprehensive analysis remains valid for the most than a dozen governmental, NGO, and UN agencies part. This includes population estimates for the met in December 2014 to conduct the update. various IPC Phase classifications. Therefore, the Participants were drawn from all 10 states and December 2014 Update does not include new reviewed livelihoods, food security, and hazards analysis but is solely an update on projections for assessment reports collected between September January to March 2015. 2014 and November 2014. This includes data from KEY MESSAGES In September 2014, the South Sudan IPC Technical Jonglei counties of Duk, Ayod, Canal/Pigi and Working Group projected that 2.5 million people Fangak, and the Unity counties of Rubkona and would face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Mayom, where conflict was ongoing in December. Phase 3) food insecurity levels between January and These areas are facing Emergency food insecurity March 2015. This latest IPC Update confirms the (IPC Phase 4) because of extremely limited earlier projection, but the distribution of food humanitarian access, low household stocks of insecurity across the country has shifted as staple foods, and poorly functioning markets, all as highlighted below. Key contributing factors to the a result of ongoing conflict. Food insecurity in this country’s food insecurity are conflict-related area could worsen if humanitarian assistance is displacement, disruptions in livestock and crop- disrupted or is not scaled up, and/or if agreements based production, high staple food prices, and high to cease hostilities are not upheld during the tense malnutrition. dry season, when conflicts usually escalate. Conflict has internally displaced over 1.4 million Additionally, six Protection of Civilians (PoCs) and South Sudanese. People from the Greater Upper IDP sites across the country are projected to Nile (GUN) region (Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile depend on humanitarian assistance in order to States) have been most severely affected. This has remain in the Crisis phase. Without assistance, the negatively impacted livestock and crop production, sites would likely slip into Emergency. and markets, especially in the conflict-affected states. These disruptions have in turn increased Another key update to the projections of cereal prices by up to 300 per cent and reduced September 2014 is the worsening of food insecurity cereal stocks. In the worst affected counties in the in Lakes and Warrap states. The region experienced GUN, as much as 80 per cent of the population was above normal flooding, which affected crop unable to cultivate staple crops in the last harvests and livestock migration and disease agricultural season and staple foods remain limited patterns, which in turn have created some conflicts in many local markets. Overall, staple food stocks among agro-pastoral communities. are projected to deplete within the first quarter (January to March) of 2015. There were also ongoing unprecedented levels of inter-clan conflict and cattle raiding, especially in Humanitarian assistance in the GUN has resulted in Lakes and Warrap states, which significantly a downgrading of the projected food insecurity affected the stability of livelihoods. As a result, classification from Emergency (Phase 4) to Crisis most of the affected counties in these two states (Phase 3) in 12 counties. The current projections have experienced a sharp deterioration in food depend on the delivery of planned interventions security in recent months. This trend is expected to during the January-March 2015 period in these persist through to March 2015. conflict-affected states. Despite the willingness of humanitarian agencies to support food insecure In Greater Equatoria, Western Bahr el-Ghazal and households, the IPC Technical Working Group is parts of Northern Bahr el-Ghazal, good crop especially concerned about food insecurity in the production this year has resulted in a more positive 2 outlook for the coming quarter. The regions have METHODOLOGY also been relatively stable, benefiting from good seasonal rains, functioning markets, and low The IPC is a set of standardized international conflict. Food consumption in the coming months protocols that provide a global ‘common currency’ will depend on household-produced food stocks for classifying food insecurity, allowing for and on markets. comparison across countries and over time. The IPC is a multi-stakeholder process based on broad 1 Recent nutrition data shows that the nutrition technical consensus, offering decision makers an situation remains critical with the prevalence of objective and rigorous analysis of food insecurity. global acute malnutrition (GAM) above the emergency threshold (GAM>15%), as defined by The conclusions of this IPC analysis were reached the World Health Organization, especially in the using the protocols of Acute IPC Version 2.0. The conflict-affected states. The states of Central units of analysis were counties and livelihoods Equatoria, as well as parts of Northern Bahr el- zones. The data that fed into the IPC analysis came Ghazal, Western Bahr el-Ghazal and Eastern from a wide range of sources, including reports Equatoria, have seen improvement due to good from state government officials, state coordinators post-harvest consumption. In Leer and Mayendit the Food and Agriculture Organization of the counties of Unity state, and in Fashoda County in United Nations (FAO), the United Nations World Upper Nile State, improved nutrition is attributed Food Programme (WFP) response plans, the latest to increased humanitarian food and nutrition Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring System support services. Despite these gains, nutrition is (FSNMS) surveys, crop assessment reports, nutrition likely to remain critical in January to March 2015. SMART surveys, and other sources. The January to March dry season provides a short For the second time, this IPC in South Sudan window of opportunity to ramp up humanitarian incorporated nutrition information into the analysis efforts in the Greater Upper Nile in preparation for and classification. There is increased availability of the lean and wet period. This is extremely nutrition information through SMART surveys, important in order to prevent thousands of Small Scale Cluster Surveys, FSNMS, and Rapid vulnerable households from slipping further into Response Missions data. However, the lack of food insecurity as they deplete their food stocks mortality data still presents a significant challenge. and run out of livelihoods options. In order to It is important to note that with the more vigorous prevent a dramatic increase in food insecurity and state level training, closer supervision by the malnutrition in 2015, immediate actions should nutrition partners, and changing the sampling include scaling up humanitarian assistance, method to include more clusters (at least 25 per including nutrition and livelihood interventions, state), there was a marked improvement in the ensuring safe movement of large volumes of food quality of FSNMS Round 14 data compared to stocks, and most importantly, securing a peaceful Round 13. Together with SMART surveys, this data solution to the ongoing political crisis. was crucial in this IPC update analysis for December 2014 in South Sudan. The IPC in South Sudan is produced by the IPC Technical Working Group. For more information, please contact the chair of the Technical Working Group, John Pangech ([email protected]) or the Communication and Policy Officer from FAO South Sudan, Alina Konevski ([email protected]). 1 Nutrition data from 11 SMART surveys, 11 RRMs and FSNMS R14 conducted after September 2014 were used in the current IPC Update. 3 MAIN OBSERVATIONS AND PROJECTIONS FOR JANUARY TO MARCH 2015 . The main harvest of key staple crops (sorghum, interventions are planned, funded, and likely to groundnuts, and sesame) has increased food be implemented. Therefore, factored into the availability for households in the short term. projection for January to March 2015 is humanitarian assistance based on known plans . As the water begins to dry and pastures by key organizations such as WFP and the become less available in early 2015, livestock International Committee of the Red Cross slowly start trekking to the traditional (ICRC), as well as the likelihood of humanitarian remaining swampy areas (toics) in the dry access. For instance, WFP plans to provide food months of January to March. This means there aid to 100 per cent of the population that was will be reduced consumption