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Demutualization of Life Insurers Method of Analysis

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Demutualization of Life Insurers Method of Analysis DEMUTUALIZATION OF LIFE INSURERS METHOD OF ANALYSIS COMMENTS ON THE PERFORMANCE OF Review of 20 companies in 5 countries that have fairly DEMUTUALIZED LIFE INSURERS AND DISCUSSION OF mature insurance markets THE FACTORS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THEIR FIINANCIAL RESULTS Basis of Review: – Financial performance, from an investor’s point of view – My observations, and those of my colleagues, on actions and Presentation to the Institute of Actuaries of Japan strategies of the companies, before and after their demutualization by Daniel J. McCarthy, FSA, MAAA February 5, 2008 1 2 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 THE COMPANIES AND THE COUNTRIES COMPOUND ANNUAL INVESTOR RETURN (through 12/31/07 or earlier acquisition) UNITED STATES Allmerica, AmerUs, Equitable, John Hancock, MetLife, MONY, Phoenix, Principal, Provident, Prudential, StanCorp, UNUM STRONG POSITIVE(15% or more): 11 companies CANADA Manulife, Sun Life WEAK POSITIVE (9% or less): Allmerica, MONY, UNUM U.K. AVIVA, Friends Provident, Standard Life NEGATIVE: AMP, AVIVA*, Friends Provident, Phoenix Not included: Standard Life (too new)、Provident (no IPO) AUSTRALIA AMP, National Mutual * Measured from CGNU merger in 2000 SOUTH AFRICA Old Mutual 3 4 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 1 TIMING OF DEMUTUALIZATION STRATEGIC THEMES Often, best results occurred when strategic moves had been Very few were “distress” situations, although several did made before demutualization need more capital Getting out of small or non-core lines of business is quite Sometimes, fast is best (example: MetLife) common Sometimes, slow is best (example: Prudential) Having too much money to spend is not always a good thing Timing can affect both policyholders and investors Very few companies have continued to sell traditional (examples: Provident and Equitable) dividend-paying policies Most (but not all) successful companies have become diversified financial services companies 5 6 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 STRATEGIC THEMES (continued) DIFFERENCES BY COMPANY SIZE Management of the ratings position (Moodys, S&P) is very For the large companies, it seems essential to be important, but top ratings are NOT usually important international in order to achieve strong growth The top publicly held insurance companies in the U.S. For smaller companies, international is not as important – tend to have ratings that are one to two steps below the increasing market share in core lines of business can top mutual companies achieve growth Management of the balance sheet (e.g., securitizing cash Some of the poorest performers have been medium-sized flows, reducing capital requirements) is much more companies with no distinct niche . Demutualization did not important for public companies than for the top mutual improve their situation. companies 7 8 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 2 COMPANY ANALYSIS: MetLife COMPANY ANALYSIS: MetLife (continued) DATE OF DEMUTUALIZATION: April 2000 STRATEGIC ACTIONS PRIOR TO DEMUTUALIZATION: COMPANY CHARACTERISTICS: – ACQUIRED NEW ENGLAND LIFE (entry into upscale market) – ACQUIRED GENERAL AMERICAN LIFE (entry into reinsurance market) – LARGE LIFE INSURER WITH BOTH INDIVIDUAL AND INSTITUTIONAL BUSINESSES – DIVESTED GROUP MEDICAL BUSINESS – HISTORICALLY, THE INDIVIDUAL BUSINESS WAS LOW TO MID – GREW GROUP DENTAL BUSINESS MARKET STRATEGIC ACTIONS SINCE DEMUTUALIZATION: – MAJOR REAL ESTATE INVESTOR – ESTABLISHED A BANK ANNUAL INVESTOR RETURN SINCE IPO: 30% – BUILT INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS – BECAME A MAJOR ADVERTIZER (Snoopy) 9 10 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 COMPANY ANALYSIS: MetLife (continued) COMPANY ANALYSIS: UNUM STRATEGIC ACTIONS SINCE DEMUTUALIZATION: DATE OF DEMUTUALIZATION: November 1986 – EXPANDED INSURANCE BROKERAGE OPERATIONS COMPANY CHARACTERISTICS: FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL ACTIONS: – MEDIUM-SIZED SPECIALTY INSURER (Disability Insurance) – MAJOR COST-CUTTING (including sale of Home Office building) – SMALL PRESENCE IN MANY LINES OF BUSINESS – REINSURED THE MORTALITY RISK IN THE “CLOSED BLOCK” (to – EXCELLENT FINANCIAL RESULTS PRIOR TO DEMUTUALIZATION reduce capital requirements) ANNUAL INVESTOR RETURN SINCE IPO: 9% OTHER COMMENTS: – CONSISTENT GROWTH IN SALES AND EARNINGS – GROWTH IS CONTINUING UNDER NEW CEO 11 12 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 3 COMPANY ANALYSIS: UNUM (continued) COMPANY ANALYSIS: UNUM (continued) STRATEGIC ACTIONS PRIOR TO DEMUTUALIZATION: FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL ACTIONS: – STOPPED SELLING INDIVIDUAL LIFE INSURANCE – INITIALLY, EXPANDED CORPORATE STAFF AND HEADQUARTERS, STRATEGIC ACTIONS SINCE DEMUTUALIZATION: EXPECTING GROWTH – SOLD OFF THE ANNUITY BUSINESS – LATER, REDUCED CORPORATE OPERATIONS – EXITED THE REINSURANCE BUSINESS OTHER COMMENTS: – PURCHASED A U.K. COMPANY (later sold it at a loss) – BECAME INVOLVED IN MAJOR LITIGATION CONCERNING – REDUCED (later stopped) SELLING INDIVIDUAL DISABILITY INSURANCE SETTLEMENT OF DISABILITY CLAIMS – MERGED WITH ANOTHER STOCK INSURER – ALSO BECAME INVOLVED IN SECURITIES LITIGATION – EXPANDED THE SALE OF GROUP LIFE AND DISABILITY – FINANCIAL RESULTS HAVE BEEN UP-AND-DOWN INSURANCE 13 14 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 COMPANY ANALYSIS: Old Mutual COMPANY ANALYSIS: Old Mutual (continued) DATE OF DEMUTUALIZATION: July 1999 STRATEGIC ACTIONS SINCE DEMUTUALIZATION: COMPANY CHARACTERISTICS: – RETAINED THE NAME “OLD MUTUAL” AS ITS BRAND NAME – EXPANDED OUTSIDE AFRICA (especially U.K. and U.S.) – LARGEST MUTUAL LIFE INSUER IN AFRICA – EXPANDED BEYOND INSURANCE – OPERATIONS IN MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES, OFTEN WITH SMALL POLICIES FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL ACTIONS: ANNUAL INVESTOR RETURN SINCE IPO: 15% – TRADING OF ITS STOCK ON THE LONDON EXCHANGE (as well as Johannesburg) AIDS ITS INTERNATIONAL FOCUS STRATEGIC ACTIONS PRIOR TO DEMUTUALIZATION: OTHER COMMENTS: – SOME CONSOLIDATION OF OPERATIONS BECAUSE OF FINANCIAL DIFFICULTIES IN SOME COUNTRIES – BASED ON ITS ORIGINS, A REMARKABLE SUCCESS STORY 15 16 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 4 COMPANY ANALYSIS: Manulife COMPANY ANALYSIS: Manulife (continued) DATE OF DEMUTUALIZATION: September 1999 STRATEGIC ACTIONS PRIOR TO DEMUTUALIZATION: COMPANY CHARACTERISTICS: – CEASED OPERATIONS IN MANY COUNTRIES (U.K. and Caribbean countries) – LARGEST MUTUAL LIFE INSURER IN CANADA – ACQUIRED NORTH AMERICAN LIFE BY MERGER – ALSO HAD MAJOR OPERATIONS IN THE U.S. – CONVERTED NON-CANADA BRANCHES TO SUBSIDIARIES (to – PRIMARY FOCUS WAS THE UPSCALE INDIVIDUAL MARKET increase flexibility) ANNUAL INVESTOR RETURN SINCE IPO: 22% STRATEGIC ACTIONS SINCE DEMUTUALIZATION: – ACQUIRED JOHN HANCOCK (largest acquisition made by a demutualized company) – EXPANDED INTERNATIONALLY BEYOND U.S. 17 18 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 COMPANY ANALYSIS: Manulife (continued) COMPANY ANALYSIS: Prudential FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL ACTIONS: DATE OF DEMUTUALIZATION: December 2001 – REINSURED ITS CLOSED BLOCK (to reduce capital requirements) COMPANY CHARACTERISTICS: – PUBLISHED EMBEDDED VALUE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS – LARGE LIFE INSURER WITH BOTH INDIVIDUAL AND INSTITUTIONAL OTHER COMMENTS: BUSINESSES – STILL HAS NEARLY HALF OF ITS BUSINESS IN CANADA – HISTORICALLY, THE INDIVIDUAL BUSINESS WAS LOW TO MID (consolidation of the Canadian market means that further expansion MARKET outside Canada will continue to be important) – MAJOR REAL ESTATE INVESTOR – BOTH OF THE MAJOR CANADIAN DEMUTUALIZATIONS HAVE BEEN ANNUAL INVESTOR RETURN SINCE IPO: 23% FINANCIALLY SUCCCESSFUL 19 20 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 5 COMPANY ANALYSIS: Prudential (continued) COMPANY ANALYSIS: Prudential (continued) STRATEGIC ACTIONS PRIOR TO DEMUTUALIZATION: FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL ACTIONS: – ESTABLISHED OPERATIONS IN JAPAN – SECURITIZED CASH FLOWS FROM “CLOSED BLOCK” – EXITED FROM THE GROUP MEDICAL BUSINESS – MAJOR COST-CUTTING – REDUCED SECURITIES BROEKRAGE OPERATIONS OTHER COMMENTS: STRATEGIC ACTIONS SINCE DEMUTUALIZATION: – PRUDENTIAL DELAYED ITS DEMUTUALIZATION UNTIL MAJOR – ACQUIRED AN ANNUITY INSUER (Skandia) ‘MARKET CONDUCT’ LITIGATION WAS CONCLUDED – ACQUIRED A LARGE BLOCK OF INSTITUTIONAL PENSION – DESPITE THREE MAJOR PRE-DEMUTUALIZATION LOSSES (Pru BUSINESS (from CIGNA) Securities, Hurricane Andrew, market conduct) the company was solid – EXPANDED OPERATIONS IN JAPAN financially at the time of demutualization – EXITED THE PROPERTY/CASUALTY BUSINESS 21 22 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 BRIEF ANALYSIS: Friends Provident BRIEF ANALYSIS: AVIVA Demutualized July 2001 Norwich Union merged (after demutualization) with CGNU Medium-sized life insurer in 2000, acquired AmerUs (United States) in 2006. Annual investor return: -6% Annual investor performance: - 3% After negative stock performance in 2002, the company The company has, since the CGNU merger, struggled to had reasonably successful operations and stock price expand operations. Until the acquisition of AmerUs, its movement through 2006. Management felt that the US operations were quite small. It is unclear whether this company needed to become larger. Efforts to acquire another company failed, and during this time – in 2007 – acquisition and other recent actions will improve the stock price fell 25%. performance. 23 24 2008年2月5日 2008年2月5日 6 A SPECIAL CASE: AXA BRIEF ANALYSIS: Phoenix AXA HAS ACQUIRED AN INTEREST IN THREE OF THE DEMUTUALIZED COMPANIES – EQUITABLE, Demutualized in June 2000. NATIONAL MUTUAL, AND MONY. Medium-sized life insurer with largely traditional business IN TWO CASES – EQUITABLE AND NATIONAL Annual investor return: - 4% MUTUAL – AXA MADE AN INVESTMENT AT THE TIME OF DEMUTUALIZATION Like many medium-sized companies with traditional ANNUAL INVESTOR RETURNS: businesses, the company has relatively high expenses – EQUITABLE: (acquired
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