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Garden Moth Scheme Preliminary Results 2019

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Garden Moth Scheme Preliminary Results 2019 Garden Moth Scheme Preliminary Results 2019 Stephen Passey – March 2020 1 GMS Preliminary Results 2019 CONTENTS PAGE Introduction 2 Geographical Coverage 3 Total Abundance 4 How Widespread 5 Top 20 Species 6 Total Moths per Garden 7 Latitude Plots 8 GMS Sponsors 10 Links & Acknowledgements 11 Cover photograph: Mimas tiliae – Lime Hawk-moth (S. Passey) Introduction The Garden Moth Scheme (GMS) is a citizen science project open to anyone from the UK and Ireland interested in recording moths in their garden. The scheme has run for 17 years in the West Midlands and is now in its 14th year in 2020 as a fully national scheme. GMS Participation 400 350 300 250 200 150 Number of sites 100 50 0 Figure 1: Number of GMS participants submitting valid recording forms by year. Thank you to all the GMS recorders who submitted 346 completed recording forms for the 2019 main scheme which ran from the end of February to November. This contributed 144,615 records of 630,138 individual moths to the GMS database. The GMS has consistently received records from over 300 sites across the UK and Ireland for approaching a decade, and there are now over 1.7 million records in the GMS database. 2 Geographical Coverage 2019 Figure 2: Locations of all GMS sites, past and present, in the UK and Ireland. 856 Recorders have volunteered for the GMS since its beginning across almost one thousand recording sites. Coverage of the UK is very good with ‘gaps’ often corresponding to areas of lower population density, e.g. the National Parks. IR CI YH WM SE NE 7% 1% 4% 8% 10% 7% SC EE 8% 10% NW 10% CY EM SW 12% 11% 12% Figure 3: Percentage of total recorders by region for 2019. 3 Total Abundance 2019 The total abundance figures of the most common species continue to creep up but there is little change to the order of the top six species as their numbers are relatively well spaced out (Table 1). Large Yellow Underwing continues to enjoy the top spot as our most abundant GMS species with numbers in excess of twice that of Heart and Dart. There is a little jostling for position between Common Rustic agg. and Garden Grass Veneer, which had a very good year, and Light Brown Apple Moth and Lesser Broad-bordered Yellow Underwing. Uncertain/ Rustic agg. has entered the top 20 this year, taking the place held by Willow Beauty. Species Total 1 Large Yellow Underwing (-) 738300 2 Heart and Dart (-) 351366 3 Dark Arches (-) 199287 4 Setaceous Hebrew Character (-) 188478 5 Hebrew Character (-) 161814 6 Common Quaker (-) 139233 7 Common Rustic agg. (8) 134681 8 Garden Grass-veneer (10) 133890 9 Light Brown Apple Moth (7) 132871 10 Lesser Broad-bordered Yellow Underwing (9) 129090 11 Square-spot Rustic (-) 116586 12 Riband Wave (-) 115109 13 Flame Shoulder (-) 105497 14 Common Footman (-) 97614 15 Lesser Yellow Underwing (-) 94772 16 Brimstone Moth (-) 85845 17 Uncertain/Rustic agg. (NE) 82099 18 Small Quaker (17) 66931 19 Shuttle-shaped Dart (18) 66579 20 Lunar Underwing (-) 65808 Table 1: The Top 20 moth species by total abundance to date. 4 How Widespread Again, the order of distribution of our top five species has not changed since 2018 (Table 2). Four species have coalesced into the joint 8th spot occupying 577 10 kilometre squares. Records of Poplar Hawk-moth and Clouded Drab expanded the most in 2019, by 17 kilometre squares. Garden Carpet, Square-spot Rustic and Lesser and Lesser Broad-bordered Yellow Underwing have also shown large increases in spread. 10 km Species Records - Nothing (+13) 608 1 Hebrew Character (+13) 600 2 Large Yellow Underwing (+13) 599 3 Common Quaker (+14) 594 4 Dark Arches (+14) 592 5 Brimstone Moth (+12) 585 6 Lesser Yellow Underwing (+16) 584 7 Flame Shoulder (+10) 578 7 Heart and Dart (+14) 578 7 Common Marbled Carpet (+13) 578 7 Lesser Broad-bordered Yellow Underwing (+15) 578 8 Silver Y (+10) 577 9 Riband Wave (+14) 575 10 Garden Carpet (+15) 574 11 Square-spot Rustic (+16) 571 11 Clouded Drab (+17) 571 12 Poplar Hawk-moth (+17) 558 13 Early Grey (+13) 556 14 Common Rustic agg. (+13) 553 15 Snout (+7) 551 16 Scalloped Oak (NE) 551 Table 2: Top 20 species (note joint 7th and 11th positions) by number of 10 km square records. Numbers in brackets indicate the increase in new km square records since 2018. 5 Top 20 Species 2019 Analysis of the top 20 most abundant moths in 2019 is detailed in Table 3. Clearly 2019 was a very good year for moths with many species showing an increase in numbers. Garden Grass-veneer had an especially good year moving up to 4th from 13th in 2018. Dark Arches, Heart and Dart, Large Yellow Underwing and Diamond- back moth had an especially good year, the latter entering into the top 20 in 2019. Lunar Underwing is the only moth with a decrease in the table, of only -2.5%. Mother of Pearl, Brimstone moth, Agriphila straminella and in particular Flame Shoulder, which had been 9th in 2018, have been pushed off the chart by new entries. Mean per Species Garden % 2019 2018 Change 1 Large Yellow Underwing (-) 238.0 130.9 +81.8 2 Heart and Dart (-) 134.7 66.0 +104.1 3 Dark Arches (8) 85.6 31.3 +173.6 4 Garden Grass-veneer (13) 69.5 23.8 +191.9 5 Uncertain/Rustic agg. (4) 66.8 39.2 +70.5 6 Setaceous Hebrew Character (3) 61.6 46.6 +32.1 7 Common Quaker (-) 50.9 33.1 +53.7 8 Hebrew Character (5) 49.2 37.0 +33.1 9 Common Rustic agg. (6) 43.5 34.3 +26.8 10 Riband Wave (-) 35.4 25.2 +40.4 11 Light Brown Apple Moth (-) 32.6 24.5 +32.9 12 Square-spot Rustic (-) 32.1 25.2 +27.5 13 Lesser Broad-bordered Yellow Underwing (17) 30.9 20.6 +50.0 14 Common Footman (-) 28.7 22.2 +29.4 15 Lesser Yellow Underwing (20) 27.6 18.2 +51.5 16 Vine's Rustic (NE) 21.6 17.0 +26.8 17 Agriphila tristella (NE) 21.3 17.3 +23.1 18 Lunar Underwing (-) 19.6 20.1 -2.5 19 Shuttle-shaped Dart (NE) 19.0 16.4 +15.6 20 Diamond-back Moth (NE) 17.5 9.2 +90.0 Table 3: The top 20 most abundant species in 2019 in terms of average number of individuals recorded per garden, ranked in 2019 order with their 2018 position in brackets, with an indication of percentage change year on year. 6 Total Moths per Garden 2019 was obviously a much better year than the preceding years for GMS moths and indeed there has not been a better one in terms of average numbers since 2010. This result flattens the slight downward trend in numbers since 2010. Figure 4 shows the undulating rise and fall of average numbers of individuals on GMS lists, peaking and troughing every 4-5 years. Although the blue trendline is increasing it includes the non-national data up to 2007. Data from 2010 onwards, using greater than 300 sites, was showing a slightly downward trend until flattening this year. GMS Average Moths per Garden 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Average Average totalnumber of moths per site 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year Figure 4. Average number of moths per site by year to date for the duration of the GMS. The blue line is the overall trend since the start of the GMS in 2003. The red line is the trend since 2010 using data from 300 or more sites. Note that last year this graph was generated using only Core Species but the numbers of non-core species are so small, there is very little difference to the graph and the general trends are generally unchanged. It will be interesting to see if 2020 sees a fall in numbers, as you might expect from the previous two to three 5-year ‘cycles’. 7 Latitude Plots Setaceous Hebrew Character Following the publication of the Moth Atlas, Les Evans-Hill has been publishing additional phenology heat maps showing the flight times of moths over the year against latitude (see https://twitter.com/LesEvansHillBC). These are very useful and well worth a look if you haven’t seen them yet. I wondered if I could do something similar using GMS data - which has fewer data points - but ought otherwise match up with the BC results. The plot below in Figure 5, comprising about 25,000 records, shows the two broods of Setaceous Hebrew Character in the South of the UK coalescing into a single brood in the North, by virtue of four or five GMS sites above ~55.5 degrees latitude. The red dots, representing records of over 50 individuals, really help to pick out the intensity of the second brood. A few of these dots represent catches of over 400 individuals! I hope to include a few more of these plots in the annual report. (The plots compare well with the Moth Atlas data, see: https://twitter.com/LesEvansHillBC/status/1218086286235447296/photo/1) Setaceous Hebrew Character 61 59 57 1 2 55 3-4 Latitiude 5-10 >10 53 >50 51 49 0 30.42 60.84 91.26 121.68 152.1 182.52 212.94 243.36 273.78 304.2 334.62 Figure 5: All GMS records to date of Setaceous Hebrew Character by latitude in the UK, the colour of dots relates to the number of individuals recorded.
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