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Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5ºC Global Warming on Natural and Human

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Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5ºC Global Warming on Natural and Human Internal Draft Chapter 3 IPCC SR1.5 1 Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Australia), Daniela Jacob (Germany), Michael Taylor 4 (Jamaica) 5 6 Lead Authors:Marco Bindi (Italy), Ines Camilloni (Argentina), Arona Diedhiou (Senegal), Riyanti Djalante 7 (Indonesia), Kristie Ebi (United States of America), Francois Engelbrecht (South Africa), Joel Guiot 8 (France), Yasuaki Hijioka (Japan), Shagun Mehrotra (United States of America /India), Antony Payne 9 (United Kingdom), Sonia Seneviratne (Switzerland), Rachel Warren (United Kingdom), Guangsheng Zhou 10 (China) 11 12 Contributing Authors: Myles Allen (United Kingdom), Peter Berry (Canada), Kathryn Bowen (Australia), 13 Christopher Boyer (United States of America), Lorenzo Brilli (Italy), Sally Brown (United Kingdom), 14 William Cheung (Canada), Jason Evans (Australia), Hubertus Fisher (Switzerland), Klaus Fraedrich 15 (Germany), Sabine Fuss (Germany), Jean Pierre Gattuso (France), Peter Greve (Germany/Austria), Naota 16 Hanasaki (Japan), Tomoko Hasegawa (Japan), Katie Hayes (Canada), Annette Hirsch 17 (Australia/Switzerland), Chris Jones (United Kingdom), Thomas Jung (Germany), Makku Kanninen 18 (Finland), Gerhard Krinner (France), David Lawrence (United States of America), Tim Lenton (United 19 Kingdom), Natalie Mahowald (United States of America), Kathleen McInnes (Australia), Katrin J. Meissner 20 (Australia), Dann Mitchell (United Kingdom), Alan C. Mix (United States), Dirk Notz (Germany), Leonard 21 Nurse (Barbados), Lennart Olsson (Sweden), Michael Oppenheimer (United States of America), Shlomit Paz 22 (Israel), Mohammad Feisal Rahman (Bangladesh), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (Germany), Roland Séférian 23 (France), Daniel Scott (Canada), Jana Sillmann (Germany/Norway),Tannecia Stephenson (Jamaica), 24 Mouhamadou B. Sylla (Senegal), Mark Tebboth (United Kingdom), Adelle Thomas (Bahamas), Petra 25 Tschakert (Australia/Austria), Robert Vautard (France), Richard Wartenburger (Germany/Switzerland), Gary 26 Yohe (United States of America), Robert B. Zougmoré (Burkina Faso/Mali) 27 28 29 Review Editors: Jose Antonio Marengo (Brazil), Joy Pereira (Malaysia), Boris Sherstyukov (Russian 30 Federation) 31 32 Chapter Scientist: Tania Guillén Bolaños (Germany/Nicaragua) 33 34 Date of Draft: 22 December 2017 35 36 Notes: TSU compiled version 37 38 Where reference is made to Annex 3.1, this is available as a supplementary PDF (file 39 SR15_SOD_Chapter3_Annex3.1) that can be downloaded with the chapter for review. 40 41 42 43 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 3-1 Total pages: 248 Internal Draft Chapter 3 IPCC SR1.5 1 Table of Contents 2 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 8 3 4 3.1 About the Chapter ................................................................................................................................ 14 5 Box 3.1: How impact and risk are used throughout this chapter. ........................................................... 15 6 7 8 3.2 How are changes in observed and projected changes in climate and weather at 1.5°C vs higher 9 levels of warming assessed? .......................................................................................................................... 16 10 3.2.1 How to assess observed and projected changes in climate and weather at 1.5°C vs higher levels of 11 warming? ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 12 3.2.2 How are potential impacts at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming assessed? ....................................... 20 13 3.2.3 Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 21 14 15 16 3.3 Global and regional climate changes and associated hazards .......................................................... 21 17 3.3.1 Global changes in climate ................................................................................................................... 22 18 3.3.1.1 Observed and attributed changes ............................................................................................22 19 3.3.1.2 Projected changes at 1.5ºC vs 2ºC ..........................................................................................24 20 3.3.2 Regional temperature on land, including extremes and urban climate ................................................ 27 21 3.3.2.1 Observed and attributed changes in regional temperature means and extremes .....................27 22 3.3.2.2 Projected changes at 1.5°C vs. 2°C in regional temperature means and extremes, including 23 urban climate ............................................................................................................................................28 24 3.3.2.3 Summary .................................................................................................................................36 25 3.3.3 Regional precipitation, including heavy precipitation and monsoons ................................................. 36 26 3.3.3.1 Observed and attributed changes in regional precipitation .....................................................36 27 3.3.3.2 Projected changes at 1.5°C vs. 2°C in regional precipitation .................................................37 28 3.3.3.3 Summary .................................................................................................................................40 29 Box 3.2: Sub Saharan Africa ..................................................................................................................... 41 30 3.3.4 Drought and dryness ............................................................................................................................ 44 31 3.3.4.1 Observed and attributed changes ............................................................................................44 32 3.3.4.2 Projected changes in drought and dryness at 1.5°C vs. 2°C ...................................................44 33 3.3.4.3 Summary .................................................................................................................................48 34 Box 3.3: Mediterranean Basin and the Middle East droughts ............................................................... 49 35 3.3.5 Runoff and river flooding .................................................................................................................... 50 36 3.3.6 Snow and permafrost ........................................................................................................................... 52 37 3.3.7 Tropical cyclones, extratropical storms and winds ............................................................................. 53 38 3.3.8 Ocean circulation and temperature ...................................................................................................... 55 Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 3-2 Total pages: 248 Internal Draft Chapter 3 IPCC SR1.5 1 3.3.9 Sea ice.................................................................................................................................................. 56 2 3.3.10 Sea level .......................................................................................................................................... 58 3 Box 3.4: Paleontological evidence for understanding 1.5–2ºC warmer worlds .................................... 61 4 3.3.11 Ocean chemistry .............................................................................................................................. 64 5 3.3.12 Global synthesis .............................................................................................................................. 65 6 3.3.12.1 Atmospheric change ...............................................................................................................65 7 3.3.12.2 Land-surface changes .............................................................................................................66 8 3.3.12.3 Oceanic changes .....................................................................................................................66 9 Box 3.5: Climate tipping points in the climate system ............................................................................ 67 10 11 12 3.4 Observed impacts and projected risks in natural and human systems ........................................... 68 13 3.4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 68 14 3.4.2 Freshwater resources (quantity and quality) ........................................................................................ 70 15 3.4.2.1 Water availability ....................................................................................................................70 16 3.4.2.2 Extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts) ...............................................................71 17 3.4.2.3 Groundwater ...........................................................................................................................72 18 3.4.2.4 Water quality...........................................................................................................................73 19 3.4.2.5 Soil erosion
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