October 2014 Volume XVIII, No. 12 www.asianaffairs.in

Managing Editor Pablo Sat-Bhambra Editors David Watts Shyam Bhatia Features Editor Tom Deegan Assistant Editors Linda Lloyd MISSION ACCOMPLISHED: Indian satellite Mangalyaan Paul Hamilton 5 makes history by entering Mars' orbit on its maiden voyage Production Incharge Deepti Sharma 5 Mars Orbiter Mission 33 Arab/Muslim world Asian Affairs Ltd. Mangalyaan: the near impossible Competing caliphates will 196 Church Rd, Northolt, made possible weaken radical Islam Middlesex, UB5 5AE, UK J S Pereira George Friedman

6 Islamic State 36 Chinese economy Direct descendants and radical China will not be the next Japan Editorial offices in London, New Delhi, departures Andrew Leung Hong Kong, Kenya, Australia, Canada, David Watts Brussels, Geneva, USA 9 Pakistan 38 Culture & politics UK Office A coup for sense over street politics Taking the stage and taking a 34, South Molton Street Shyam Bhatia stand Linda Lloyd London W1K 5RG Sino-Indian relations Tel: (+44) 020 7409 5113 12 Bruising duality of Modi-Xi summit 41 Kashmir Fax: (+44) 020 7409 5114 Inder Malhotra Let's not colour the question Email: [email protected]; with communalism [email protected] 14 War on terror Kuldip Nayar Diverse angles on the militant India Office menace 42 South Asia 5-E, 2nd Floor, Rani Jhansi Road G Parthasarathy India on jihadist radar Shyam Bhatia Jhandewalan Extn, New Delhi-110055 17 Interview at Faiz Mela Pakistan and the poet Pakistan Copyright asianaffairs 2014, all rights Dr William Crawley 44 reserved. No part of this publication may be Sharif's stay of execution reproduced without the express consent of the 22 Parliamentary debate on J & K Rahimullah Yusufzai publisher No role for the West David Watts 47 Western jihadists asianaffairs is printed and published by Deadlier than the male? Asian Affairs Ltd. 24 Israel-Palestine conflict Rupert Fisher Time for Israel to put its money 196 Church Rd, Northolt, where its mouth is Middlesex, UB5 5AE, UK 49 Indo-Pak geopolitics Sir Peter Luff Sikhism in the seventies: a call Editorial contributions to asianaffairs are to arms 26 Israel-Palestine conflict Sarabjit Singh welcome. The editor reserves the right to edit When will the world wake up to the text. The views expressed in asianaffairs Israel's war? are not necessarily those of the publisher 52 Environment matters Tom Deegan The beauty of doing a lot with a ISSN:1366-3623 31 Interview little Colonel Bob Stewart talks IS and Asgar Boo asianaffairs is available at the following annual subscription rates: ethics, and says he believes Sunnis and Shias can work UK £23.50 together to overcome a common Europe and Eire £27.50 enemy Asia, USA and Africa £36.50 Shyam Bhatia Australasia £39.00 Pictures: AFP 2 Editorial Page 33 article: Stratfor 3 Letters 55 News Nuggets Chinese economy ago. Since then, the market has been characterised by massive pent-up demand supported by continuing China will not be the next Japan income growth, urbanisation, the rise of smaller families and an exploding Although China's economic growth may have stalled lately, Andrew Leung, an middle class. international and independent China specialist based in Hong Kong, predicts that this does Shadow banking and a wobbling not spell decline for the Asian giant. banking sector? The answer lies in the following perspectives. Firstly, China's big four over 100,000 from the same period banks are amongst the world's top ten last year. He asserts that China cannot largest by banking assets. The vast rely on loose credit to lift its economy, majority of China's banking assets are and that Beijing would continue to state-owned, backed by a colossal roll out modest 'targeted' measures to foreign exchange reserve of $4 shore up growth. trillion. They are also far less So, what is going on? Would China leveraged than Western banks. With reforms in place, the RMB is likely to become the world's most in 2014 presage a repeat of Japan's Secondly, shadow banking is a traded currency 'lost decades' as claimed by some universal phenomenon, the outcome analysts?1 of modern-day credit creation outside convertibility of the RMB as an for SE Asia, China and India 2014 — The worries are primarily three- the formal banking system. According 5 international reserve currency . Beyond the Middle Income Trap, the fold: the risks of a housing bubble, a 4 to data from J P Morgan , measuring OCED finds that China's economy possible shadow banking crisis and Ability to deliver a new model of financial intermediaries as a will slow from 7.7 per cent in 2012 to questionable ability to deliver a new sustainable growth percentage of bank assets, China's 7.5 per cent by 2018. The report model of sustainable growth. Following the 60-point decisions of shadow banking exposure (some 30 suggests that under a best-case per cent) ranks below average (50 per the Communist Party Third Plenum in A housing bubble? scenario, China should be able to cent) among 20 jurisdictions at the end November 2013, there is little doubt The first major difference of China's transit beyond the middle-income of 2012. The US and Netherlands had that the Xi leadership really wanted housing market is that traditionally, trap by 2026, a little later than the largest shadow banking systems at fundamental reforms. The question is the gearing (on average about 50 per Malaysia (2020) but ahead of 170 per cent and 150 per cent to what extent these reforms may cent) is very low by international Thailand (2031), Indonesia (2042), respectively, while South Africa and deliver a substantially transformed comparison2. According to findings of Philippines (2051), Vietnam (2058) Mexico had the largest among China by 2020. GROWTH FACTOR: Li Keqiang points out that the Chinese economy and India (2059). Beijing has recently the Institute of Real Estate Studies, emerging-market countries, at 66 per still created 9.7 million new jobs in the first eight months of 2014 Does China's economic slow-down stated that a medium-term average Tsinghua University (2007-10), the cent and 56 per cent respectively. ratio of housing prices to disposable herald long-term decline? growth rate of about 7 per cent is Thirdly, Beijing is well aware of the China's decades of labour-and- raft of ominous data on drop in January-July as banks grow income varies below 13 per cent for aimed for. risks of shadow banking and is resource-intensive breakneck growth China's economy in August more cautious in anticipation of eight major Chinese cities except A applying the brakes across the board. has accumulated a mountain of An Asian century in the making? has sent alarm bells ringing Beijing (18 per cent) and Shenzhen further price declines. And last but not least, China's shadow problems ranging from growing Per capita income measurements do (22 per cent). A 30 per cent drop in across the globe. Government Industrial output rose only 6.9 per banking has arisen primarily because inequality, corruption, ecological not do justice to the economic weight price would translate into only 3 per stimulus doesn't seem to be working. cent in August from a year earlier — the of 'financial repression'. Under this degradation, lowering capital of large economies with huge cent negative equity. In an article Overcapacity remains evident. An lowest since 2008 — compared with current system, the state extracts productivity, and other hurdles of the populations. According to the World overwrought housing market seems to expectations for 8.8 per cent, slowing 'China's property market is no bubble' surplus savings through suppressed Bank, China's economy is likely to 3 middle-income trap, which many persist. Shadow banking continues to sharply from 9.0 per cent in July. in the Wall Street Journal , Yukon bank deposit rates. Lending goes developing countries will have to overtake that of the United States this loom large, an albatross round the Some analysts believe annual Huang, Senior Associate at the mostly to large state-owned overcome to transit to a higher- year in purchasing power parity neck of a seemingly fragile banking economic growth may be sliding C a r n e g i e E n d o w m e n t f o r enterprises. This has spawned a income economy. China has terms. The Economist estimates that and financial system weighed down towards 7 per cent in the third quarter, International Peace and a former plethora of higher-interest-bearing repeatedly affirmed that she is in for a with slower growth rates, China's by rising debts. casting doubt on the government's country director for the World Bank in wealth management products outside slower, more equitable, more economy will become the world's China's power generation declined full-year target of 7.5 per cent. Experts China, shows that the graph of bank balance sheets. The resultant balanced, more innovative, higher- largest by 2021. Be that as it may, for the first time in four years, falling reckon output growth of around 9 per construction and real estate value- investments give rise to dubious quality, and more sustainable growth. should China succeed in overcoming 2.2 per cent in August from a year cent would be needed to attain such a added as a percentage of GDP (1981- projects infested with corruption. But the question is how much slower, the middle-income trap by 2026, her earlier, while growth in sales of most goal. 2012) only rises moderately between These multi-faceted problems are as a growth rate much higher than economy by then will have grown housing-related goods slowed. Meanwhile, Premier Li Keqiang 5 per cent to 12 per cent with no sharp now being vigorously tackled. There Western norms would be necessary to much larger than the United States'. Mortgage issuance in the first eight points out that the economy still hikes and drops. No real property is the existential need to consolidate keep the masses reasonably According to research by BBVA, a months of 2014 fell 4.5 per cent from a created 9.7 million new jobs in the market existed in China until housing the Party's legitimacy, to liberalise the employed. Spanish bank, the EAGLEs year earlier, worse than a 3.7 per cent first eight months of 2014, a rise of was privatised more than a decade financial system and hasten the full In a 2013 Report Economic Outlook (Emerging and Growth Leading

36 asianaffairs October 2014 asianaffairs October 2014 37 Culture & politics Economies, including Turkey) and struggle between two ideologies, one boys, and girls don't get fair Established in the belief that if India is NEST countries (upcoming- that is liberal and one that is intolerant. opportunities. And unless that is to undergo real change, attention EAGLEs) are together expected to Obviously a choice has to be made and reversed… needs to be turned towards the contribute 68 per cent to world growth Taking the stage and taking a each individual has to make the 'So I am very proud that my son, villages and the empowerment of girl between 2012-2022. China and India choice: what kind of Islam do you Farhan Akhtar, who is an extremely children, the society provides gainful are each expected to contribute a stand for, what kind of Christianity, popular actor, has started a group employment for villagers in Mijwan, higher share than the US. The G7 what kind of Hinduism? called MARD — Men Against Rape including women, and has thus helped economies together will add a mere 16 stand 'You know, people denounce one and Discrimination — because it is to alter power equations within the 7 family as women have become bread- per cent . kind of extremism, but the fact is that very important to revisit and redefine religious fundamentalists of all hues notions of masculinity. Why is it that winners, making them less dependent In contrast with an economically- In the run-up to the opening of her new play, Happy Birthday are mirror images of each other and it masculinity is about being aggressive and more self-confident. weakened West, there are increasing Sunita, Indian actress and social activist Shabana Azmi troubles me when I see the kind of and wielding power… why is it not 'I made a big fuss about ensuring signs of an Asian renaissance under i m p e t u s t h a t r e l i g i o u s also about compassion, about treating that every single woman has a bank new leadership. In a few more talked to Linda Lloyd of Asian Affairs about her work on stage, screen and in the socio-political arena. fundamentalism seems to be getting in women with respect and with account,' says Shabana. 'They were decades, the shift of gravitas to the the world. equality? We need to actually redefine very resistant to it but I forced it down East is likely to become even more 'There's a saying that if you put a notions of masculinity and essentially their throats and now they are able to pronounced. The world as we know it habana Azmi has run the frog in boiling water, the frog will strike at patriarchy at the roots. And I negotiate their own money.' today will have totally transformed. S gamut of human experience jump out and save itself. But if you put think that movement has started.' As a result of such work and the Plus the advent of mobile and other in a long and illustrious the frog in tepid water and slowly turn Shabana still finds the number of subsequent higher levels of education technologies, new modes of career that has seen her play a the temperature up, the frog doesn't instances of violence against women for girls, much has changed in this businesses, and new non-state actors wide range of testing, sometimes realise it and then ultimately dies. And 'terrifying', but is encouraged by how small village in eastern UP. Among across boundaries, traditional ways of contentious roles in both mainstream I think all of us are living like frogs in this links to the greater number now the most significant changes is that, looking at growth, money flows, and independent cinema, and in the the tepid water and not realising that finally daring to come forward and while girls in Mijwan used to get commerce and global power will no theatre. it's not happening out there — it's right report them. married as young as twelve, none will longer be fit for purpose.  Now set to tread the boards in a here and now, and we have to make a As for her recent work for the now marry before the age of eighteen. forthcoming comedy by Harvey choice to end this.' UNPFA, she is critical of the 'knee- 'The school took a vow that if any Footnotes Virdi, she admits that, while the play In the light of this, and of her strong jerk reactions' to the 'time bomb' of girl is being pressurised into getting 1. China May Soon Go the Way of Japan, married before eighteen, they would Says Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg Business has cross-cultural appeal in its belief that the fastest way to bring population issues in countries like W e e k , 1 0 S e p t e m b e r , 2 0 1 4 universal themes of parent-child about change is to get women India, where it is all about control. all go into a demonstration outside her h t t p : / / w w w. b u s i n e s s w e e k . c o m / relationships, the right to happiness involved in the process of What the world needs, she says, is house. So now there is not a single girl articles/2014-09-10/is-china-another- and the importance of being true to development, she feels hopeful population stabilisation, with people who's being forced to become a child japan-in-the-making (accessed on 17 regarding positive shifts in attitudes h a v i n g c h o i c e s r e g a r d i n g bride. To me that's huge, because it's a September, 2014) oneself, she only relates to her character, family matriarch Tejpal towards women in the Subcontinent contraception, and women having mindset transformation.' 2. A study (2007) of the Federal Reserve Shabana once said that the stage Board of San Francisco confirms that Johal, to a certain extent. ROLE MODEL: Shabana Azmi, and beyond, even given the recent more power over their own fertility. China's household leverage is low relative 'She is very proficient in the actress and activist atrocities committed against women 'You cannot look at the issue of was an actor's space, cinema was the to income (about 50 per cent) well below all kitchen, I am not at all,' she smiles. 'So and girls in India and Pakistan. population in isolation — you have to director's medium and television was advanced countries except Italy. that's the first challenge, though I can you're obviously just a pop 'I think a huge change is taking place look at it in terms of what it does for a writer's. Does she find any of these 3. http://online.wsj.com/articles/yukon- identify with her core of strength. But psychologist, but I think that it does in in India because of the gang rape [of the empowerment of women. The new media particularly suited to the huang-chinas-property-market-is-no- political activist, and to bringing bubble-1406220282 (accessed on 17 it's always interesting to find a some way inform the fact that you Jyoti Singh Pandey] in December dialogue is that you need to put September, 2014) character that's different from how look at characters in a particular way.' 2012 — such a huge hue and cry was women at the centre of all about social change? 4. In defense of China's shadow banks, you are.' Despite her success on both stage made, and you got, spontaneously, development schemes.' 'I think all, though I think the one David Keohane, FT Alfaville, 3 February, Both comic and dramatic roles can and screen, Shabana's acting is young boys coming out with young Other key work for Shabana that has the greatest influence is 2014 http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/ increasingly taking a back seat to her girls in protest. And it was so fierce, includes her involvement with the cinema. Mainstream cinema, if it is 02/03/1759962/in-defence-of-chinas- be very demanding, requiring an understanding of how people think, role as a social and women's rights that protest, the government really had NGO Nivara Hakk Suraksha Samiti couched within the entertainment shadow-banks/ (accessed on 17 September, world but you are making a strong 2014) feel and behave. With her educational activist, and as a Goodwill to quickly act and put in place the (Right to Shelter), which dates back to point about women's issues, for 5. See my think-piece From shadow background in psychology, does Ambassador for the United Nations Justice Verma Committee, which then 1986 and has built homes for 50,000 instance, that would have the greatest banking to full currency convertibility by Shabana feel that this has informed Population Fund (UNPFA). She also gave a report saying that these are the families. The organisation argues 2020, The Global Analyst, August 2013 reach. her acting? has firm views on religious actions that need to be taken. against the demolition of slums, http://www.andrewleunginternationalcons 'I grew up to believe that art should 'Yes, I think so. I come from a extremism, and is convinced that the 'That to me was very comforting, the which creates worse slums from those ultants.com/publications/2013/08/china- be used as an instrument for social literary family — my father was a real struggle is not between the faiths fact that boys were coming out, that already exist, and insists on the from-shadow-baning-to-full-currency- change. I think that art cannot bring convertibility-by-2020.html (accessed on poet, my mother's an actress and I or cultures of East and West, but because the root cause of it is creation of a government 'land bank' about immediate change but what it 17 September, 2014) really wondered whether I should take between liberal values and patriarchy, surely. And in countries that can provide land at subsidised can do is create a climate of sensitivity 6. Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of psychology or whether I should take intolerance. like ours, patriarchal values keep rates for economically weaker China's Economic Dominance, Arvind in which it is possible for change to literature. My father said, “But you're 'I think if we understood that, then getting reinforced all the time, and sections of society. Subramanian, Senior Fellow at the Peterson instead of positing it as a problem they make their way into the hearts This ties in with another NGO, occur.' Institute for International Economics, interested in acting, so you should Wise words from someone who has Washington DC, 2011 between Islam and Christianity, and minds of women and men. So Mijwan Welfare Society, founded by really take psychology, it would help used her own voice so eloquently to 7. Annual Report 2013, Economic Outlook you”. And I said, yes, that's true. If between Islam and Hinduism, we boys start feeling privileged from their Shabana's late father Kaifi Azmi and allow others to be heard.  — Eagles, BBVA, Madrid, March 2013. you're a graduate in psychology would get to the bottom of it. It's a birth onwards just because they are taken on by her after his death.

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