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Aviation Week & Space Technology

$14.95 AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020

X = Raider + Defi ant A DECADE OF SPEED

GE, Pratt and Rolls Lower Margins, Higher Risks

A Hypersonic Upgrade

RICH MEDIA for U.S. ICBMs? EXCLUSIVE AI-Human Dogfight Advantage Machine Digital Edition Copyright Notice

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Photographic record made by the Brazilian Air Force on one of the missions to combat COVID-19 in Brazil. Read Aviation Week AVIATIONWEEK Anytime, Anywhere & SPACE Now 3 Ways to Read Online August 31-September 13, 2020 . Volume 182 . Number 17 2020 Winner

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DEPARTMENTS 6 | Feedback 14 | Intel 7 | Who’s Where 56 | Marketplace 8-9 | First Take 57 | Contact Us 10 | Up Front 57 | Aerospace DYNETICS 11 | Going Concerns Calendar 12 | Inside Business Dynetics has flown a second Kratos-built X-61 Gremlins air-launched and air- Aviation recovered unmanned aircraft and demonstrated close-formation with a Lockheed Martin C-130. The flight, in July at Dugway Proving Ground in Utah, moved the DARPA program closer to an aerial recovery test later this year.

FEATURES 38 | USAF errantly reveals research on 24 | Lessors dig deep to support their 16 | The End of an Era ICBM-range hypersonic vehicle desperate customers GE Aviation resets with new 40 | New factory opening launches CEO, and Pratt and Rolls look to 26 | The challenge for long-haul LCCs: U.S. hypersonic industrial phase advanced propulsion to overcome Recovering from COVID-19 pandemic-related setbacks 41 | Weapons revealed for ’s 27 | In the U.S., regional carriers are Altius unmanned aircraft 32 | Family Affair hardest hit by pandemic downturn 43 | Russia nears start of Su-57 Sikorsky and showcase 28 | COVID-19 slows the pace of the production; Su-35s still being built commonality between the Raider FAA’s NextGen program and Defiant for the U.S. Army ASK THE EDITORS 30 | U.S. agencies take early steps to 54 | Is the world big enough to support 46 | Air Combat by Algorithm install counter-drone systems , Boeing and ? DARPA says a dogfighting win by artificial intelligence shows UNMANNED AVIATION MARKETPLACE potential for teaming with humans 34 | Xwing automates Caravan to 55 | Despite new advances, there are transform express logistics decades of life still in jet propulsion 48 | Final Countdown UK vie for small- DEFENSE VIEWPOINT launch contracts as 36 | Competition for U.S. long-range 58 | Facing flat budgets, the Pentagon and Skyrora eye 2022 launch date strike mission heats up will need strategic focus.

ON THE COVER As two key future-rotorcraft competitions accelerate, the Sikorsky S-97 Raider (left) joined the Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 Defiant for the first time when the high- speed rotorcraft flew in formation over the Florida test center in a demonstration for the U.S. Army. Lockheed Martin photo. Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST

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AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy-Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 Bureau Chiefs Auckland Adrian [email protected] Go beyond the Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral news of the day Irene Klotz [email protected] with Aviation Week Chicago Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Intelligence Network’s Frankfurt Market Briefi ngs. Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston Mark Carreau [email protected] • Stay ahead of the London market Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles • Identify new Guy Norris [email protected] opportunities Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] • Drive revenue Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Learn more: Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington aviationweek.com/ Jen DiMascio [email protected] marketbriefi ngs Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Integrated Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy-Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Air and Missile Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Defence Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 Bureau Chiefs Auckland Adrian [email protected] Beijing Go beyond the Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral news of the day Irene Klotz [email protected] with Aviation Week Chicago Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Intelligence Network’s Frankfurt Market Briefi ngs. Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston Mark Carreau [email protected] • Stay ahead of the London The 21st Century battlespace is increasingly complex – Mission commanders market Tony Osborne [email protected] demand reliable, high performance situational awareness and defence systems Los Angeles for air operations and missile defence, simultaneously. • Identify new Guy Norris [email protected] opportunities Lyon Leonardo designs the multi-mission, fixed and deployable radar Thierry Dubois [email protected] family; enabling the full detect-to-engage mission cycle against the complete • Drive revenue Moscow spectrum of air breathing and ballistic threats. Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Integrated solutions, including rapidly deployable radar, command and control Paris Learn more: Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] centres and fully-integrated, interoperable and secure communication networks aviationweek.com/ Washington ensure asset protection, with fewer systems on the battlefield. Jen DiMascio [email protected] Inspired by the vision, curiosity and creativity of the great master inventor - marketbriefi ngs Wichita Leonardo is designing the technology of tomorrow. Molly McMillin [email protected]

President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon

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Helicopters | | Electronics, Defence & Security Systems | Space 4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK

doubt about safety among potential Boeing personnel on board—the board travelers. Until the traveling public of directors would be a nice touch. replaces this doubt with trust, the Then take six “modified” and industry will not rebound. do the same thing. Keep flying them. Our recommendation is for a na- News media and regula- tional working group to be established tors should be on board as well. under the auspices of Vice President This is what would have been Mike Pence. The group would achieve done in the early days of commercial the goal of identifying a comprehensive, aviation to demonstrate reliability and uniform industry approach to make the safety to the traveling public. flying experience the safest and most NASA consistent possible. Participants would Eric Hiner, Plantation, Florida include organizations such as the FAA, SUBORBITAL SUSTAINMENT TSA and Centers for Disease Control, ‘DIRECT LAW’ Irene Klotz’s column, “The Launch- major and airport authorities The criticism of engineers’ “1g envi- pad,” is a favorite of mine. But I must and labor leaders. The recommenda- ronment” in the article “Checklist disagree on one point in her recent tions of this working group would not Challenges” (July 27-Aug. 14, p. 18) was column on suborbital ’s hia- be optional; outcomes must become on target, although, based on my more tus beginning with the second Mercury administration policy. Industry partic- than 42 years in the industry, I believe launch (July 13-26, p. 16). Well after the ipants will be expected to play a role, the situation is a little more complex. Mercury program, the X-15 was oper- even if it means subordinating their Engineers, by nature, are problem- ating in near space. In 1963, Joe Walker own interests to a degree. solvers. Most of them are specialists, reached an apex of the program, at Unless a focused national approach however, so when they make well- 67 mi. above 200,000 ft. were is adopted to regain public trust in avia- intentioned decisions, they often don’t fairly common late in the program, tion, the recovery of the industry and its understand the broader implications. and on Aug. 21, 1968, Bill Dana got his component parts will remain stalled. It They tend to approach a problem astronaut wings in the No. 3 . The is time for a new approach, powered by with the tools with which they are most last launch, on Oct. 24, 1968, topped out a breakthrough in thinking, and it must familiar. They also tend to be craftspeo- just shy of 50 mi. be led by the very highest authorities. ple, so as they gain more experience, I grew up with the X-1, the Skyrocket, their designs become more complex. the X-2 and X-15, and they were iconic. I Mike Higgins and the Stonebriar Strategy Combine this with the fact that pro- probably found the X-15 more interest- Group Thought Leadership Initiative, gram pilots are extremely knowledge- ing than the Mercury. Dallas and take pride in understanding Yes, some of the X-15 pilots were complex systems that a line pilot would military, and the civilians were not MAX FLIGHT-TESTING have to struggle to stay current on. recognized as NASA astronauts until While the five strategic recommenda- Program managers are judged much later; but I doubt that quibble tions advanced by Kevin Michaels in on schedule and budget, and senior was what your distinguished columnist “Rebooting Boeing” (July 27-Aug. 14, management is watching the stock had in mind. p. 10) may refocus Boeing on the share market. The end result is that there are price chase, they would not help rees- not enough people with a broad enough Bernard Biales, Jamaica Plain, tablish confidence in the reliability and view to recognize when a design deci- Massachusetts safety of the metal and software bits sion is going to cause a problem. that make up its products. We on the design side of the industry FEEDING DOUBT Boeing needs to show the traveling have a responsibility to pilots and pas- In his recent viewpoint, Collins Aero- public and all its stakeholders that its sengers to keep things simple. If it were space President Stephen Timm cor- leaders know what they are doing, and up to me, every commercial rectly points out that an interagency/ the best way to prove that is by demon- would be equipped with a single button interassociation approach is required strating Boeing products, especially labeled “DIRECT LAW.” Pushing it in conjunction with government to cre- what is considered its most “defective” would bypass all the computer soft- ate a safe and reliable “curb-to-curb” product, the 737 MAX. ware and give the pilots direct, analog experience for passengers (July 27- Boeing should pull six unmodified control over the control surfaces so Aug. 14, p. 66). The flying public must be MAX airplanes off the hardstands (in they could keep the dirty side down able to trust their health and well-being the same configuration as the accident until they are able to figure out what is to both airlines and airports every time ), place an experimental going on. they fly. At present, they do not. placard over the main doorway, and Current responses to COVID-19 in fly these six airplanes every day with Vaughan Askue, Stratford, Connecticut the industry are mostly a random and inconsistently applied assortment of ideas based on minimal deviations Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, from business as usual. The absence of 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: a standard, comprehensive approach [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; among airports and airlines feeds a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK WHO’S WHERE

doubt about safety among potential Boeing personnel on board—the board travelers. Until the traveling public of directors would be a nice touch. Hal Chrisman has chief operating officer of the Provo, Avineon Inc. has hired David McGill replaces this doubt with trust, the Then take six “modified” airplanes and been hired as presi- Utah, facility from vice president of as vice president of growth operations. industry will not rebound. do the same thing. Keep flying them. dent of Raisbeck Engi- operations; he succeeds Bill Prochazka, McGill served on the Professional Our recommendation is for a na- News media and civil aviation regula- neering. He was chief who has retired. And Ryan Huss has Services Council and as co-chair of the tional working group to be established tors should be on board as well. strategy officer with been promoted to the new position of Northern Virginia Technology Council’s under the auspices of Vice President This is what would have been Acorn Growth and director of sales from and Cybersecurity and Privacy Committee Mike Pence. The group would achieve done in the early days of commercial before that worked engine sales manager. before joining Avineon. the goal of identifying a comprehensive, aviation to demonstrate reliability and at ICF Aerospace and MRO, Aero- SR Technics has Stertil-Koni has uniform industry approach to make the safety to the traveling public. Strategy and Pemco Aviation Group. promoted Caroline promoted Carl Boyer flying experience the safest and most CACI International has hired to senior to Midwest regional NASA Vandedrinck consistent possible. Participants would Eric Hiner, Plantation, Florida Todd Probert as president of CACI’s vice president of sales sales manager from include organizations such as the FAA, National Security and Innovative from vice president shop equipment spe- SUBORBITAL SUSTAINMENT TSA and Centers for Disease Control, ‘DIRECT LAW’ Solutions sector. Probert was vice for the Americas. cialist for product Irene Klotz’s column, “The Launch- major airlines and airport authorities The criticism of engineers’ “1g envi- president of Raytheon’s command and Panasonic sourcing, sales, new pad,” is a favorite of mine. But I must and labor leaders. The recommenda- ronment” in the article “Checklist control, space and intelligence busi- Corp. has hired Joe Bentley as chief business and customer relationships. disagree on one point in her recent tions of this working group would not Challenges” (July 27-Aug. 14, p. 18) was ness and before that was Honeywell technology officer. Bentley was senior Aviation software digital records column on suborbital spaceflight’s hia- be optional; outcomes must become on target, although, based on my more Technology vice president of strategy vice president of engineering at Hulu. provider Bluetail has hired D. tus beginning with the second Mercury administration policy. Industry partic- than 42 years in the industry, I believe and business development. Volocopter has promoted Arnaud Stout as vice president of sales. Stout launch (July 13-26, p. 16). Well after the ipants will be expected to play a role, the situation is a little more complex. Boeing has revamped its corporate Coville to chief technical officer from previously worked at Gulfstream, Mercury program, the X-15 was oper- even if it means subordinating their Engineers, by nature, are problem- communications func- head of VoloCity development. He Executive Jets and ating in near space. In 1963, Joe Walker own interests to a degree. solvers. Most of them are specialists, tion under these newly succeeds Jan-Hendrik Boelens, who Bombardier Learjet. reached an apex of the program, at Unless a focused national approach however, so when they make well- appointed vice presi- has left the company. Components manufacturer Essex 67 mi. Flights above 200,000 ft. were is adopted to regain public trust in avia- intentioned decisions, they often don’t dents: Brian Moran, Al Potter has been hired as Leidos UK Industries has hired Mathew Johnston fairly common late in the program, tion, the recovery of the industry and its understand the broader implications. global brand and managing director for national secu- as vice president of business de- and on Aug. 21, 1968, Bill Dana got his component parts will remain stalled. It They tend to approach a problem corporate communi- rity and defense. Potter was a man- velopment. Johnston was business astronaut wings in the No. 3 ship. The is time for a new approach, powered by with the tools with which they are most cations; Gordon aging director and board member at development vice president at Espey last launch, on Oct. 24, 1968, topped out a breakthrough in thinking, and it must familiar. They also tend to be craftspeo- Johndroe, global me- Boeing Defence UK and before that Manufacturing and Electronics and just shy of 50 mi. be led by the very highest authorities. ple, so as they gain more experience, dia and public affairs; was with Lockheed Martin Global. at Leonardo/DRS. I grew up with the X-1, the Skyrocket, their designs become more complex. Georgina Goode, BridgeComm has appointed U.S. Army Gen. (ret.) the X-2 and X-15, and they were iconic. I Mike Higgins and the Stonebriar Strategy Combine this with the fact that pro- global channel and Paul Searcy chief scientist and Vincent K. Brooks probably found the X-15 more interest- Group Thought Leadership Initiative, gram pilots are extremely knowledge- content marketing; Mike Mabry technical program has been elected to ing than the Mercury. Dallas able and take pride in understanding Conrad Chun, global director of the optical the Jacobs Engineering Yes, some of the X-15 pilots were complex systems that a line pilot would communications for communications entity. Searcy was Group board. Brooks, military, and the civilians were not MAX FLIGHT-TESTING have to struggle to stay current on. Boeing Commercial Meadowlark Optics vice president the eighth African recognized as NASA astronauts until While the five strategic recommenda- Program managers are judged Airplanes; Walt Rice, global commu- of research and development, and American to be pro- much later; but I doubt that quibble tions advanced by Kevin Michaels in on schedule and budget, and senior nications for Boeing Defense, Space Mabry was Lockheed moted to four-star general, also is on was what your distinguished columnist “Rebooting Boeing” (July 27-Aug. 14, management is watching the stock and Security (interim); and Allison Martin principal R&D the boards of Diamond back Energy, had in mind. p. 10) may refocus Boeing on the share market. The end result is that there are Bone, global communications for investigator. the Gary Sinise Foundation and the price chase, they would not help rees- not enough people with a broad enough Boeing Global Services. AAR Corp. has elect- Korea Defense Veterans Association. Bernard Biales, Jamaica Plain, tablish confidence in the reliability and view to recognize when a design deci- Aircraft Accessories and Components ed Robert F. Leduc to He is a WestExec Advisors princi- Massachusetts safety of the metal and software bits sion is going to cause a problem. Co. has named Mazen Johar as CEO. its board. Leduc, who pal and a member of the Council on that make up its products. We on the design side of the industry Johar was deputy minister for in- retired as president of Foreign Relations. FEEDING DOUBT Boeing needs to show the traveling have a responsibility to pilots and pas- dustrial services at the ministry of Pratt & Whitney, also H+S Aviation, a In his recent viewpoint, Collins Aero- public and all its stakeholders that its sengers to keep things simple. If it were industry and mineral resources and held senior executive roles at United Global Engine Services company, has space President Stephen Timm cor- leaders know what they are doing, and up to me, every commercial airliner held executive roles at Nova Water, Technologies Corp. and Sikorsky Air- hired Jim Payton as global strategic rectly points out that an interagency/ the best way to prove that is by demon- would be equipped with a single button Saudia Cargo and Basic. He succeeds craft among others. account executive for the company’s interassociation approach is required strating Boeing products, especially labeled “DIRECT LAW.” Pushing it Mansour Bineid. CDB Aviation, a subsidiary of newly acquired CTS800 engine prod- in conjunction with government to cre- what is considered its most “defective” would bypass all the computer soft- Wencor has promoted Shawn Trogdon Development Bank, has hired uct line. He had been with Rolls-Royce. ate a safe and reliable “curb-to-curb” product, the 737 MAX. ware and give the pilots direct, analog to CEO from chief financial officer. Brendan O’Neill as chief financial Katrina McFarland has been named experience for passengers (July 27- Boeing should pull six unmodified control over the control surfaces so Trogdon succeeds Chris Curtis, officer. He was senior vice president to the Exyn Technologies board. She Aug. 14, p. 66). The flying public must be MAX airplanes off the hardstands (in they could keep the dirty side down who has retired. of financial reporting, planning and was assistant secretary of defense able to trust their health and well-being the same configuration as the accident until they are able to figure out what is Duncan Aviation has promoted analysis at DAE Capital. for acquisitions and acting assistant to both airlines and airports every time airframes), place an experimental going on. Jeff Lake to president from chief oper- Robert Knox has been promoted to secretary of the Army. She is also they fly. At present, they do not. placard over the main doorway, and ating officer of its Lincoln, Nebraska, AvAir chief accounting officer from a materials, mechanical, civil and Current responses to COVID-19 in fly these six airplanes every day with Vaughan Askue, Stratford, Connecticut facility. He succeeds semi retired senior vice president of finance. electronics engineer. c the industry are mostly a random and Aaron Hilkemann, who is now part- inconsistently applied assortment of time board CEO and chairman. To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no PDFs) ideas based on minimal deviations Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Mike Minchow succeeds Lake as the and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on companies and from business as usual. The absence of 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: Lincoln chief operating officer; he was individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network a standard, comprehensive approach [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; vice president of modifications and en- at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone among airports and airlines feeds a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required. gineering. Chad Doehring steps up to U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 7 FIRST

aircraft in the U.S. since 2017, and the concluded its Office of Space Commerce TAKE board rates three other incidents as is the best-suited federal agency to over- For the latest, go to suspected drone collisions. see future space traffic management. AVIATIONWEEK.COM Energy company Phillips 66, renew- KBR, once a high-profile energy and able-fuels producer Gevo and fuel dis- military logistics company, will acquire tributor Air BP, working with Finland’s Centauri, a space, defense and intelli- Neste, have all announced deals to gence company, in an $800 million deal make additional sustainable aviation that KBR calls “transformative” to its fuel available. business.

Administrators for Virgin Australia The ninth and final Japan Aerospace are recommending creditors vote on Exploration Agency HTV cargo vehi- Sept. 4 to accept Bain Capital’s pro - cle departed the International Space posed A$3.5 billion ($2.5 billion) take- Station on Aug. 18, filled with trash for RELIABLE ROBOTICS over of the airline. a destructive reentry into the Earth’s COMMERCIAL atmosphere. U.S. startups Reliable Robotics and Xwing AirBaltic and Airbus have agreed to de- are independently flight-testing lay delivery of the remaining 28 A220- DEFENSE Caravans modified for autonomous flight. 300s the carrier has on order, with a Argentina is to loan Cordoba-based Both plan regional cargo operations with new plan to complete delivery of all 50 FADEA $2.5 million to build a second unmanned Caravans (page 34). of the type by early 2024. prototype of the IA-100 piston-powered trainer, which has been on hiatus since The FAA is seeking information from in- Boeing has garnered its first new sale the first prototype flew in 2015. dustry on counter-unmanned aircraft for the grounded 737 MAX this year, systems for deployment at civil airports with Polish charter airline Enter Air Japan has issued what appears to be a and for testing to determine the risk to placing a firm order for two 737-8s and request for proposals from UK and U.S. a large engine from ingesting options for two more. companies seeking to act as partners a small drone (page 30). for the planned F-X fighter program. SPACE The NTSB has confirmed three mid- An independent panel commissioned Belgium and the UK plan to study areas air collisions of drones with manned by the U.S. Commerce Department has of potential cooperation on unmanned aircraft systems. Both are gearing up to begin operations with the General VIEW FROM WASHINGTON Atomics MQ-9B SkyGuardian. Faster Weapons Sales to U.S. Allies? The U.S. Army is inching closer to its vision for equipping the Future Attack The sale of Lockheed Martin F-35s to Poland paves the way for Reconnaissance Aircraft with air- future Joint Strike Fighter deals to close within six months of the launched effects by awarding $29.75 million in contracts for 10 projects. initial agreement, says the Pentagon’s acquisition chief. Defense trade modernization is a “key initiative” for Defense The Israel-United Arab Emirates (UAE) Secretary Mark Esper because the U.S. wants to support its peace agreement should open the door for the U.S. to approve Abu Dhabi’s six- partners and allies by supplying equipment, says Ellen Lord, un- year-old request to acquire Lockheed dersecretary for acquisition and sustainment. It is helpful for U.S. Martin F-35s, the UAE’s top diplomat partners and allies to have interoperable equipment while also said (see box at left). blocking Russia from selling its platforms, she says. By the end of September, the Penta- Poland announced last summer it intended to purchase F-35As, gon will have cleared five companies— and the NATO ally signed a contract for 32 aircraft in January. Altavian, Parrot, Skydio, Teal and Van- tage Robotics—to sell small unmanned “I think the Poland effort really shows what happens when all the aircraft systems to the U.S. government. [Defense Department] agencies . . . work very closely with the State Department,” Lord says. A Boeing F/A-18E/F has started a “ski- jump” takeoff demonstration that is The New York Times reported Aug. 19 that the Air Force provid- critical to the fighter’s chances in an ed a classified briefing on the F-35 to the United Arab Emirates Indian Navy competition. (UAE). Asked if selling F-35s to the UAE is on the table, Lord TECHNOLOGY deferred to the State Department. UK startup Vertical Aerospace has re- vealed its VA-1X tiltprop/multirotor

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST Growing Military Engine Repair, 2020-29 aircraft in the U.S. since 2017, and the concluded its Office of Space Commerce TAKE board rates three other incidents as is the best-suited federal agency to over- (U.S. $ trillions) For the latest, go to suspected drone collisions. see future space traffic management. $5 AVIATIONWEEK.COM Other

Energy company Phillips 66, renew- KBR, once a high-profile energy and VERTICAL AEROSPACE able-fuels producer Gevo and fuel dis- military logistics company, will acquire 4 Snecma M88 tributor Air BP, working with Finland’s Centauri, a space, defense and intelli- electrical vertical-takeoff-and-landing Neste, have all announced deals to gence company, in an $800 million deal (eVTOL) aircraft. The company plans 3 Eurojet EJ200 make additional sustainable aviation that KBR calls “transformative” to its to fly a prototype later in 2021 and bring fuel available. business. the design to market in 2024. 2 F101/F110 Administrators for Virgin Australia The ninth and final Japan Aerospace Another UK startup, Hill , F404/F414 are recommending creditors vote on Exploration Agency HTV cargo vehi- has revealed plans to develop a five- 1 Pratt & Whitney Sept. 4 to accept Bain Capital’s pro - cle departed the International Space seat, single-turbine for the F100 posed A$3.5 billion ($2.5 billion) take- Station on Aug. 18, filled with trash for private aviation market. Production is F135 RELIABLE ROBOTICS over of the airline. a destructive reentry into the Earth’s expected to begin in 2023. 0 COMMERCIAL atmosphere. 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 U.S. startups Reliable Robotics and Xwing AirBaltic and Airbus have agreed to de- Israel’s Urban Aeronautics has signed Source: Michael Tint/Aviation Week Intelligence Network are independently flight-testing Cessna lay delivery of the remaining 28 A220- DEFENSE an agreement with U.S.-based emer- Caravans modified for autonomous flight. 300s the carrier has on order, with a Argentina is to loan Cordoba-based gency air provider Hatzolah Jet engines powering Western-designed fighters and training aircraft will generate Both plan regional cargo operations with new plan to complete delivery of all 50 FADEA $2.5 million to build a second Air to develop a version of Urban’s City- $50.5 billion in maintenance, repair and overhaul demand over the next decade—rising unmanned Caravans (page 34). of the type by early 2024. prototype of the IA-100 piston-powered Hawk air taxi for emergency medical from $4.5 billion in 2020 to $5.6 billion in 2029, for a compound annual growth rate trainer, which has been on hiatus since service applications. of 2.45%. Most of the growth will come from Pratt & Whitney’s F135, the engine on The FAA is seeking information from in- Boeing has garnered its first new sale the first prototype flew in 2015. Lockheed Martin’s F-35. dustry on counter-unmanned aircraft for the grounded 737 MAX this year, China’s EHang is to launch an urban air systems for deployment at civil airports with Polish charter airline Enter Air Japan has issued what appears to be a mobility trial in Linz, Austria, the first op- and for testing to determine the risk to placing a firm order for two 737-8s and request for proposals from UK and U.S. eration of its kind in Europe. The initial For more information about Aviation Week Intelligence Network data, a large turbofan engine from ingesting options for two more. companies seeking to act as partners phase of the trial will involve the EHang go to awin.aviationweek.com a small drone (page 30). for the planned F-X fighter program. 216 autonomous eVTOL air vehicle. SPACE The NTSB has confirmed three mid- An independent panel commissioned Belgium and the UK plan to study areas Florida’s aerospace and de- er’s new production site in Melbourne. the ATF3-6 turbofan has become the air collisions of drones with manned by the U.S. Commerce Department has of potential cooperation on unmanned velopment authority, Space Florida, is first 3D-printed flight-critical part aircraft systems. Both are gearing up to invest in Aerion Supersonic to sup- An additively manufactured bearing certified for service on an operational to begin operations with the General port development of the manufactur- housing developed by Honeywell for engine. c VIEW FROM WASHINGTON Atomics MQ-9B SkyGuardian.

Faster Weapons Sales to U.S. Allies? The U.S. Army is inching closer to its 30 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK vision for equipping the Future Attack The sale of Lockheed Martin F-35s to Poland paves the way for Reconnaissance Aircraft with air- The Lockheed F-117A made its first overseas future Joint Strike Fighter deals to close within six months of the launched effects by awarding $29.75 deployment in August 1990 as 20 of the million in contracts for 10 projects. initial agreement, says the Pentagon’s acquisition chief. stealth attack aircraft were sent to Saudi Ara- bia in response to Iraqi strongman Saddam Defense trade modernization is a “key initiative” for Defense The Israel-United Arab Emirates (UAE) Hussein’s occupation of Kuwait. Aviation Secretary Mark Esper because the U.S. wants to support its peace agreement should open the door for the U.S. to approve Abu Dhabi’s six- Week Engineering Editor Michael A. Dornheim partners and allies by supplying equipment, says Ellen Lord, un- year-old request to acquire Lockheed flew aboard a Boeing KC-135Q tanker that dersecretary for acquisition and sustainment. It is helpful for U.S. Martin F-35s, the UAE’s top diplomat refueled the F-117As on the first leg of the partners and allies to have interoperable equipment while also said (see box at left). trip from their base in Tonopah, Nevada, and blocking Russia from selling its platforms, she says. took the photo that appeared on our Aug. 27 By the end of September, the Penta- cover. The Lockheed-built aircraft had been gon will have cleared five companies— Poland announced last summer it intended to purchase F-35As, operating since 1983 but had only recently and the NATO ally signed a contract for 32 aircraft in January. Altavian, Parrot, Skydio, Teal and Van- tage Robotics—to sell small unmanned come out of the shadows. Dornheim wrote “I think the Poland effort really shows what happens when all the aircraft systems to the U.S. government. that most of the crewmen onboard the KC-135 [Defense Department] agencies . . . work very closely with the had never seen one. The F-117A’s ability to State Department,” Lord says. A Boeing F/A-18E/F has started a “ski- precision-bomb while avoiding radar played a jump” takeoff demonstration that is The New York Times reported Aug. 19 that the Air Force provid- key role in defeating Iraqi forces and liberating critical to the fighter’s chances in an Kuwait in early 1991, not to mention establish- Indian Navy competition. ed a classified briefing on the F-35 to the United Arab Emirates ing a new generation of U.S. air dominance. (UAE). Asked if selling F-35s to the UAE is on the table, Lord TECHNOLOGY The stealthy was retired in 2008 after Subscribers can access every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: c deferred to the State Department. UK startup Vertical Aerospace has re- 25 years of service. archive.aviationweek.com vealed its VA-1X tiltprop/multirotor

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 9 COMMENTARY UP FRONT P. BARRY BUTLER

TWENTY YEARS AGO, AERONAUTICAL requires cross-disciplinary research and education. science students did not arrive at Embry- In response to the merging of highly automated air- Riddle Aeronautical University with craft and their human operators, we have challenged hundreds of hours of flight time on a PC- our five colleges to create more cross-disciplinary based simulator. Nor did they own unmanned aerial initiatives and shared research, informed by industry vehicles equipped with remotely operated cameras advisory boards. We have convened aviation experts and autoland control capability. Today’s “internet of focused on flight, design, manufacturing and human wings” continues to advance, bringing new capabilities factors to advise us in developing robust cyber- and as well as vulnerabilities to all types of aircraft and, big-data education, for example. We are also under- equally importantly, their operators. taking collaborative research with multiple airframe As aircraft, computers and automation merge at a rap- manufacturers—companies with different philosophies id pace, my workday pri- on the “allocation of con- orities remain constant: trol authority” between to help make our students Age of Automation pilots and aircraft. as successful as possible Our goal is to infuse and to provide the avia- Training new pilots to interface with machines all of our educational tion industry with critical programs with a com- research and a workforce prehensive perspective prepared to innovate and on human and machine adapt to technological ad- performance in aviation. vances in aviation. While That requires compe- COVID-19 has temporar- tencies that will trans- ily slowed our industry, form the industry, such we cannot stop preparing as data analytics, cyber- for the future of aviation. resilience and advanced In today’s environ- manufacturing. We also ment, preparing stu- want graduates of our dents to become pilots technical programs to and industry leaders goes have a solid business beyond stick-and-rudder foundation so they will training. The future will recognize how to mon-

be full of “flying com- DAVID MASSEY/EMBRY-RIDDLE etize new opportunities. puters.” As commercial This broadening of and airports become increasingly automated, old boundaries is critical to , efficiency aviation leaders must keep expanding their awareness and the economy. Designers need to understand of how current human-in-the-loop research will revo- pilots so their designs reflect human manual and lutionize “business as usual” tomorrow. cognitive skills. Pilots need to understand the air- Embry-Riddle has always prioritized safety, which craft’s architecture and logic so they do not sacri- has made us early adopters of simulation and virtual fice situational awareness and become complacent and augmented reality—critical tools in advancing or overly reliant on automation. Scientists need to our knowledge of human-machine interfaces. Our understand entrepreneurship to speed the evolution philosophy is that we do not train pilots; we prepare of ideas into products. decision-makers. Our flight-training programs strive Driving technological innovation and research to incorporate an understanding of human factors to in higher education is vital to the future success of ensure that pilots of highly automated aircraft can our industry. Discovery-driven education is equally respond swiftly in a crisis. Through our research pro- important. Providing real-world, applied research grams, we continue to explore how aircraft systems opportunities for students will ease their entry into can benefit from artificial intelligence and automation tomorrow’s aerospace workforce and elevate their without causing a concomitant degradation of pilots’ value to employers. stick-and-rudder skills. For example, we have ongoing Figuring out how best to keep “humans in the loop” research into whether onboard, real-time diagnostics as we develop more autonomous and intelligent sys- help pilots maintain situational awareness despite in- tems is a defining challenge too complex for any single creased automation on the flight deck. discipline or institution to address alone. Figuring out The convergence in technology drives a conver- how best to keep “students in the loop” so they grad- gence of disciplines. As educators, we must integrate uate with a strong foundation backed by a varied skill expertise from multiple disciplines. A traditional silo set is a defining challenge for aviation education. c mentality restricts our field of view. To get the highest performance from humans and their flying machines P. Barry Butler is president of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY UP FRONT GOING CONCERNS P. BARRY BUTLER MICHAEL BRUNO

TWENTY YEARS AGO, AERONAUTICAL requires cross-disciplinary research and education. BEFORE THE COVID19 OUTBREAK With more than half of its global training operations science students did not arrive at Embry- In response to the merging of highly automated air- this spring, flight simulators and pilot either closed or temporarily reduced, utilization Riddle Aeronautical University with craft and their human operators, we have challenged training were some of the hottest side reached a low point around the 20% range during the hundreds of hours of flight time on a PC- our five colleges to create more cross-disciplinary hustles that legacy aerospace manufac- recent quarter, CEO and President Marc Parent said based simulator. Nor did they own unmanned aerial initiatives and shared research, informed by industry turers could play as they rode the historic updraft in on Aug. 12. Since then, the Canadian company has seen vehicles equipped with remotely operated cameras advisory boards. We have convened aviation experts airliner tra c. Business was expected to be so good that average training center utilization rise to 40% as some and autoland control capability. Today’s “internet of focused on flight, design, manufacturing and human even with the grounding of the MAX, lead- fl ight crews resumed some of their critical training ac- wings” continues to advance, bringing new capabilities factors to advise us in developing robust cyber- and ing simulator and training provider CAE was building tivities. What is more, the company managed to sell as well as vulnerabilities to all types of aircraft and, big-data education, for example. We are also under- “white tail” simulators without assigned customers. two full-fl ight simulators to airline customers during equally importantly, their operators. taking collaborative research with multiple airframe That was then, and this is now. According to a new the quarter, a period that analysts broadly expect to As aircraft, computers and automation merge at a rap- manufacturers—companies with different philosophies analysis by Oliver Wyman advisors, if Congress and be the nadir of the pandemic. id pace, my workday pri- on the “allocation of con- the Trump administration fail Indeed, the irony of the situ- orities remain constant: trol authority” between to provide another bailout for ation is that despite the rapid, to help make our students Age of Automation pilots and aircraft. the airlines by Oct. 1, the U.S. Looking To Climb sudden contraction of the as successful as possible Our goal is to infuse could see as many as 225,000 marketplace, the pilot-train- and to provide the avia- Training new pilots to interface with machines all of our educational additional airline workers lose Simulator and pilot-training providers ing and simulation business tion industry with critical programs with a com- their jobs starting this fall, or see blue skies still should be a growth indus- research and a workforce prehensive perspective 30% of the total U.S. airline try. According to an August prepared to innovate and on human and machine workforce. That is on top of report by Global Industry adapt to technological ad- performance in aviation. cuts already made through Analysts, a big-data market vances in aviation. While That requires compe- voluntary departures. intelligence fi rm, worldwide COVID-19 has temporar- tencies that will trans- U.S. majors spent the summer commercial and military fl ight ily slowed our industry, form the industry, such warning that thousands of pilots simulation is projected to reach we cannot stop preparing as data analytics, cyber- could be let go. LinkedIn is fi lling $6.1 billion by 2025, with a com- for the future of aviation. resilience and advanced up with essays about how pilots pound annual growth rate of In today’s environ- manufacturing. We also can change careers and why 3.9%. Driving this growth will ment, preparing stu- want graduates of our other industries should consider be the need to curb rising costs dents to become pilots technical programs to hiring professional pilots due to AE of pilot training by replacing and industry leaders goes have a solid business their skill sets and temperaments. traditional techniques with low- beyond stick-and-rudder foundation so they will But since global commercial is cost virtual training methods, the training. The future will recognize how to mon- not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2024, accord- launch of new-generation aircraft and the parallel need be full of “flying com- DAVID MASSEY/EMBRY-RIDDLE etize new opportunities. ing to the International Air Transport Association and to retrain pilots. On top of all that, if airliner travel puters.” As commercial This broadening of S&P Global Ratings, a casual observer could expect the does return to 2019 levels and continues growing, there airliners and airports become increasingly automated, old boundaries is critical to aviation safety, efficiency simulator and training business to go cold fast. could once again be a pilot shortage. aviation leaders must keep expanding their awareness and the economy. Designers need to understand There is a chill, for sure. In June, announced CAE and L3Harris see it, according to their leaders. of how current human-in-the-loop research will revo- pilots so their designs reflect human manual and it ceased manufacturing at its TRU Simulation + Train- “As the global fl eet eventually resumes service, we ex- lutionize “business as usual” tomorrow. cognitive skills. Pilots need to understand the air- ing facility in Montreal, essentially exiting the market- pect to continue building on our previously positive mo- Embry-Riddle has always prioritized safety, which craft’s architecture and logic so they do not sacri- place. “We’ve seen a substantial decline in demand and mentum, increasing market share and securing new has made us early adopters of simulation and virtual fice situational awareness and become complacent [an increase in] order cancellations for fl ight simula- customer partnerships with our innovative training and and augmented reality—critical tools in advancing or overly reliant on automation. Scientists need to tors in light of the expected long-term impact of the operational solutions,” Parent says. “We’re currently in our knowledge of human-machine interfaces. Our understand entrepreneurship to speed the evolution pandemic on the commercial air transport business,” advanced discussions with a number of airline custom- philosophy is that we do not train pilots; we prepare of ideas into products. Chairman, CEO and President Scott Donnelly told fi - ers to potentially do more for them. I believe the current decision-makers. Our flight-training programs strive Driving technological innovation and research nancial analysts on July 30. context will lead to more airline training outsourcing to incorporate an understanding of human factors to in higher education is vital to the future success of The commercial simulator business accounted for opportunities as the industry looks for ways to gain ensure that pilots of highly automated aircraft can our industry. Discovery-driven education is equally roughly $100 million of Textron’s annual revenue, greater agility and resiliency in the post-COVID-19 era.” respond swiftly in a crisis. Through our research pro- important. Providing real-world, applied research just 1% of sales—not a big loss for the multi-industry L3Harris Chief Operating O cer and President grams, we continue to explore how aircraft systems opportunities for students will ease their entry into giant. Still, exiting a business is a long-term gamble, Christopher Kubasik expressed similar sentiments in can benefit from artificial intelligence and automation tomorrow’s aerospace workforce and elevate their and rivals L3Harris Technologies and leader CAE June to Aviation Week. “It’ll be interesting to see how without causing a concomitant degradation of pilots’ value to employers. have not gone that far. the airlines [respond],” he said. “Are they going to still stick-and-rudder skills. For example, we have ongoing Figuring out how best to keep “humans in the loop” Certainly, L3Harris and CAE see less activity, and deploy capital to buy simulators, or are they going to research into whether onboard, real-time diagnostics as we develop more autonomous and intelligent sys- they are going through restructuring of their own. send them to our schoolhouses, where we’ve already help pilots maintain situational awareness despite in- tems is a defining challenge too complex for any single L3Harris, which recorded about $800 million in related invested in the sims?” creased automation on the flight deck. discipline or institution to address alone. Figuring out revenue last year, anticipates simulator sales will be Before the pandemic, L3Harris increasingly sensed The convergence in technology drives a conver- how best to keep “students in the loop” so they grad- down 40% for 2020. As of the second quarter, its train- that airlines wanted to outsource training and simula- gence of disciplines. As educators, we must integrate uate with a strong foundation backed by a varied skill ing business was o¥ 40-45% from plan, with no new tion, so they can keep all of their own pilots dedicated expertise from multiple disciplines. A traditional silo set is a defining challenge for aviation education. c full-fl ight simulators sold after the fi rst quarter—and to revenue-producing fl ights. But even if they do not, mentality restricts our field of view. To get the highest no expectations of any for the rest of this year. L3Harris is positioned to respond. “We’re kind of on performance from humans and their flying machines P. Barry Butler is president of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. CAE also experienced dramatic cuts in activity. both sides of that equation,” Kubasik stressed. c

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 11 COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION WILLIAM GARVEY

THE GOES TO The seemingly simple switch resonated with buy- “the greatest achievement in aeronau- ers, and Cessna delivered a remarkable 1,400 172s in tics or astronautics in America” during 1956, the first full year of production. Thanks to that the preceding year. One year it went to nosewheel and the aircraft’s stellar operating record, Chance-Vought’s F8U Crusader, a just-launched U.S. they have been buying ever since. Navy fighter. Fine choice, but the right one? Martha King, a co-founder with her husband, John, After all, there was another aircraft that also first of the well-known King Schools pilot instruction com- flew in 1955, Cessna’s Model 172 Skyhawk, a Mach 0.17 pany, recently described the 172 thusly: “It’s depend- (125 mph) performer versus Crusader’s Mach 1.2. And able, predictable, well-mannered and maintainable by yet that and its other modest numbers, including a almost anybody.” To which John added: “And trust- worthy, reliable and capable.” In addition to their Dassault Falcon 10, the Kings have owned several 172s, purchasing their current Unawarded Worthy one last year. Long a staple among flight schools glob- None has proved equal to the ally, the Skyhawk, according to the Kings, is “part of the foundation of civil aviation.” Indeed, it seems most pilots, including many military aviators, have logged time in a 172. And Mark Baker, president and CEO of the Air- craft Owners and Pilots Association, opines that the 172 is “about the most versatile and forgiving out there, and a great choice for those both learning to fly and looking for their first airplane.” Baker has owned four of the type in his life, including one for his son’s and nephew’s flight training. Cessna has updated the model regularly with more powerful engines and improved avionics—the current 172S features a 180-hp Lycoming engine and a Garmin G1000 cockpit—but save for the swept fin and rear windows added in the 1960s, its configuration is close to the original. Operators seem to approve. TEXTRON AVIATION TEXTRON The 172 Skyhawk has been in manufacture, with base price of $8,750, made Cessna’s new low-tech a notable interruption, since the outset. Cessna model an instant hit. Why? reportedly turned out more than 4,000 during the An iteration of the four-seat, high-wing Model 170, the model’s first five years, but between 1986 and 1996 it 172’s principal difference was its . The 170 suspended all lightplane production while the indus- was fitted with two main fixed gear forward and a tail- try campaigned, ultimately successfully, to resolve wheel, a so-called “conventional” configuration, where- product liability issues. Since then, annual Skyhawk as the 172 substituted a nosewheel for the tailwheel—a output has ranged from 490 in 2000 down to 85 in “tricycle gear” setup. To the unfamiliar, that may seem 2010. Last year it delivered 126 and another 48 in the inconsequential, but most pilots prefer the latter by far. first quarter of 2020. A tailwheel plane’s nose points skyward while on In total, more than 45,000 Skyhawks have been de- the ground, and the angle can be so pronounced as to livered, making it by far the most populous airplane block the view of the pavement ahead. Consequently, ever produced, with more being added every month. the pilot must sashay while taxiing. And when land- And while the retail price of a new 172 is now ing, the can disappear again just before touch- $400,000, the Aircraft Bluebook notes that prices down, making rollout an act of faith. Additionally, for 10- and 20-year-old models average $280,000 crosswinds require serious rudder and aileron work and $135,000, respectively—reasonable in a market when taking off, touching down and on the ground where the age of a single-engine piston aircraft av - since the forward placement of the main gear results erages 46 years. As for an original 1955 Skyhawk: in an aft center of gravity (CG), which, combined yours for $25,000. with a castoring tailwheel, can cause the aircraft to All in all, these are impressive numbers for a Medi- “weather-vane” into the wind. care-qualified flying machine, one that continues in By contrast, tri-gear aircraft sit level, providing a both widespread service and production. It seems clear view forward when on the ground. And most award-worthy to me. Meanwhile, of the 1,261 Crusad- nosewheels do not swivel, which, along with a for- ers built, the Navy retired its last 33 years ago. c ward CG, helps stabilize the aircraft from crosswind forces while on the ground. William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation.

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST

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archive.aviationweek.com Boeing is proud sponsor to the Aviation Week of aerospace innovation with nearly 500,000 pages of content. C 1918 1 1934 1944 - - - - - AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST Business & Commercial Aviation. is Editor-in-Chief of The seemingly simple switch resonated with buy Martha King, a co-founder with her husband, John, John, husband, her with co-founder a King, Martha In addition to their Dassault Falcon 10, the Kings And Mark Baker, president and CEO of the Air Cessna has updated the model with regularly more The 172 Skyhawk has been in manufacture, with In total, more than have been Skyhawks 45,000 de And while the retail price of a new 172 is now Medi- a for numbers impressive are these all, in All ers, ers, and Cessna delivered a remarkable 1,400 172s in 1956, the first fullyear of production. Thanks to that record, stellar operating and the nosewheel aircraft’s since. been buying ever have they - com instruction pilot Schools King well-known the of recently described the pany, 172 - depend thusly: “It’s by maintainable and well-mannered predictable, able, almost To anybody.” which John added: - trust “And and capable.” reliable worthy, have owned several 172s, glob schools purchasing flight among staple a Long their year. last one current ally, the Skyhawk, according to the Kings, is of the “part foundation of civil aviation.” Indeed, it seems most pilots, including many military aviators, have time in a 172. logged craft Owners and Pilots Association, opines that the airplane forgiving and versatile most the “about is 172 out there, and a great choice for those both learning to fly and lookingfor theirfirst Baker airplane.” has his for one including life, his in type the of four owned training. flight and nephew’s son’s current avionics—the improved and engines powerful Garmin a and engine Lycoming 180-hp a features 172S G1000 cockpit—but save for the swept fin and windows rear added in the 1960s, its isconfiguration close approve. seem to to the original. Operators a notable interruption, since reportedly turned the out more than outset. 4,000 during the it 1996 and 1986 between Cessna but years, five first model’s indus- the while production lightplane all suspended try campaigned, ultimately successfully, to resolve Skyhawk annual then, Since issues. liability product output has ranged from 490 in 2000 down to 85 the in 48 in another and 126 delivered it year Last 2010. quarter of 2020. first livered, making it by far the most populous month. airplane every being added with more produced, ever $400,000, the Aircraft Bluebook notes that prices for 10- and 20-year-old models and respectively—reasonable in $135,000, a average market $280,000 where the age of a single-engine piston aircraft av erages 46 years. As for an original 1955 $25,000. for Skyhawk: yours care-qualified flying machine, one continuesthat in both widespread service and production. to of me. Meanwhile, the 1,261 award-worthy It - Crusad seems c ago. its last 33 years retired built, the Navy ers William William Garvey - - Cessna Cessna 172 WILLIAM WILLIAM GARVEY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION INSIDE BUSINESS THE COLLIER TROPHY GOES TO TO GOES THE TROPHY COLLIER “the in greatest - achievement aeronau during America” in astronautics or tics One year it went to the year. preceding Unawarded Worthy Unawarded An iteration of the four-seat, high-wing Model 170, the 170, Model high-wing four-seat, the of iteration An A tailwheel plane’s nose points skyward while on By contrast, tri-gear aircraft sit level, providing a After all, there was another aircraft that also first None has proved equal None to has the proved

base price of $8,750, made Cessna’s model an instant hit. Why? new low-tech principal Thewas170 difference its landing172’s gear. and a tail- forward gear main fixed two fitted with was where configuration, “conventional” so-called a wheel, tailwheel—a the for nosewheel a substituted 172 the as seem may that unfamiliar, the To setup. gear” “tricycle far. by latter the prefer pilots most but inconsequential, the ground, and the angle can be so as pronounced to block the view of the pavement ahead. Consequently, the pilot must sashay while taxiing. And touch- when before just land- again disappear can runway the ing, down, making rollout an act crosswinds require of serious rudder and faith. aileron work Additionally, when taking off, touching down and since the forward placement of on the main gear results ground the in an aft center of with a gravity castoring tailwheel, (CG), can cause which, the aircraft combined to into the wind. “weather-vane” clear view forward when on the ground. And nosewheels most do not swivel, which, along with ward CG, helps stabilize the a aircraft from crosswind for on the ground. while forces Chance-Vought’s F8U Crusader, a just-launched U.S. a just-launched U.S. F8U Crusader, Chance-Vought’s one? but the right Fine choice, fighter. Navy 0.17 Mach a Skyhawk, 172 Model Cessna’s 1955, in flew And 1.2. Mach Crusader’s versus performer mph) (125 yet that and its other modest numbers, including a TEXTRON AVIATION TEXTRON COMMENTARY AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST WEEK & SPACE 12 AVIATION COMMENTARY AIRLINE INTEL JENS FLOTTAU

SINCE THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC matically as it turned out, but there was no way the waylaid commercial aviation in March, dreams could have become reality. there has been much talk about when To no one’s surprise, the signs of overproduction aircraft production volumes will return to “normal.” have been visible during the crisis. Airbus cut output Across the industry, leading CEOs have defined “nor- by only one-third, aiming to keep as high a level as mal” as 2019. But a closer look at earlier market fore- possible. Boeing wants to hand over the undelivered casts and planned production rates shows that 2019 is stored MAXs and ramp up production of new ones at the wrong benchmark. the same time. Essentially, airlines may be forced to Although conventional last year was that accept aircraft they clearly do not want and cannot Airbus and Boeing would raise output ever higher, the afford. Airbus is already producing a significant num- two aircraft manufacturers already were producing ber of white tails, something it had promised to avoid. more airplanes than Keeping production the market could ab- high now is short- sorb and were planning Time To Face Reality sighted. It weakens air- to build significantly line customers further more in the future. Getting back to 2019 is the wrong target during a time of huge Let’s do the math. for aircraft OEMs financial pressure. It In 2019, Airbus pro- is also bad for future jected demand for pricing once airlines 39,000 aircraft of 100 are ready to take more seats or more over the aircraft. There will be next 20 years—an av- ample capacity from erage of 1,970 annually lessors or cheap, al- and a figure roughly in most brand-new air- line with Boeing’s fore- craft that operators cast. If the two compa- want to dispose of. nies split the market Arguably, steep cuts 50-50, each would have in production could ruin demand for 985 aircraft the supply chain. But a year. But that number the bitter truth is that already is too high be- although some parts of cause it does not take the supply chain were into account sales by struggling to keep up Brazil’s Embraer, Chi- with the tempo before na’s Comac or Russia’s the crisis, there is now United Aircraft Corp. It AIRBUS far too much capacity. is also possible that another company, perhaps a market And clearly, an excess of capacity will continue for years. disruptor, could build the first hybrid-electric 100-seater Management understandably wants to minimize in the next couple of decades. the damage and needs time to digest the avalanche of Airbus delivered 863 aircraft in 2019, reasonably bad news over the past few months. The financial and close to its allocation of the forecast 20-year average; market pressures are also obvious: the fewer deliver- Boeing planned to build and hand over about 860 jets ies, the less revenue and the smaller the market share. last year, for a combined total of approximately 1,840 Boeing, already badly damaged by the MAX produc- aircraft. Boeing ultimately delivered just 380 units tion interruption and that aircraft’s disappointing re- because of the 737 MAX grounding, but the point is ception by customers, has every incentive to contain that both companies were planning to build nearly as any further loss of market share. many aircraft as their average forecast for the next Nonetheless, more tough decisions loom. On the 20 years. In other words, even before the biggest Boeing side, a slower reintroduction of the MAX is in- downturn in aviation history, no room for any pro- evitable, as is a very slow service-entry process for the duction growth existed. Take the other aircraft man- 777X. Airbus will have to cut narrowbody output fur- ufacturers into account, and you could surmise there ther. If long-haul travel does not return quickly—and already was significant overproduction, particularly no indications suggest it will—Airbus will also have to in the narrowbody segment. take another hard look at A350 and A330neo rates, as Of course, the fallout from the novel virus painful as that may be. pandemic has made all these studies and production Remembering that earlier plans were unrealistic plans irrelevant. But industry needs to realize its will be particularly important once demand recovers. pre-COVID-19 plans were already unrealistic. One A more measured approach is needed this time despite way or another, it had to go wrong, maybe not as dra- competitive incentives to do the opposite. c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY ORGANIZED AND AIRLINE INTEL HOSTED BY: JENS FLOTTAU 71st

SINCE THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC matically as it turned out, but there was no way the waylaid commercial aviation in March, dreams could have become reality. there has been much talk about when To no one’s surprise, the signs of overproduction aircraft production volumes will return to “normal.” have been visible during the crisis. Airbus cut output Across the industry, leading CEOs have defined “nor- by only one-third, aiming to keep as high a level as mal” as 2019. But a closer look at earlier market fore- possible. Boeing wants to hand over the undelivered st casts and planned production rates shows that 2019 is stored MAXs and ramp up production of new ones at 71 International the wrong benchmark. the same time. Essentially, airlines may be forced to Although conventional wisdom last year was that accept aircraft they clearly do not want and cannot Astronautical Airbus and Boeing would raise output ever higher, the afford. Airbus is already producing a significant num- two aircraft manufacturers already were producing ber of white tails, something it had promised to avoid. more airplanes than Keeping production Congress the market could ab- high now is short- sorb and were planning Time To Face Reality sighted. It weakens air- – The CyberSpace Edition to build significantly line customers further more in the future. Getting back to 2019 is the wrong target during a time of huge Let’s do the math. for aircraft OEMs financial pressure. It In 2019, Airbus pro- is also bad for future 12–14 October 2020 jected demand for pricing once airlines 39,000 aircraft of 100 are ready to take more st seats or more over the aircraft. There will be The Internatonal Astronautcal Federaton (IAF) is pleased to inform you that it will host the 71 International next 20 years—an av- ample capacity from Astronautical Congress, IAC 2020 - The CyberSpace Edition on the professional vFairs platform. erage of 1,970 annually lessors or cheap, al- and a figure roughly in most brand-new air- This interactve platform built specifically for virtual events, offers vse eral features and will allow all IAC line with Boeing’s fore- craft that operators delegates to: cast. If the two compa- want to dispose of. nies split the market Arguably, steep cuts • follow the live Plenary Events, IAF Global Networking Forum Session and Special Sessions in a dedicated 50-50, each would have in production could ruin virtual auditorium demand for 985 aircraft the supply chain. But • to browse the comprehensive Technical Programme with numerous pre-recorded Technical Video a year. But that number the bitter truth is that Presentatons already is too high be- although some parts of • to visit the virtual exhibiton and interact with all the exhibitors cause it does not take the supply chain were • to partcipate in a dedicated Networking Session for the Next Generaton into account sales by struggling to keep up • Brazil’s Embraer, Chi- with the tempo before and much more! na’s Comac or Russia’s the crisis, there is now United Aircraft Corp. It AIRBUS far too much capacity. Some of the confirmed highlights of the congress will be: is also possible that another company, perhaps a market And clearly, an excess of capacity will continue for years. • On Monday 12 October, Agency Day, the traditonal Heads of Agencies Plenary: the heads of NASA, ESA, disruptor, could build the first hybrid-electric 100-seater Management understandably wants to minimize JAXA, ISRO, have already confirmed their partcipaton; in the next couple of decades. the damage and needs time to digest the avalanche of • On Tuesday 13 October, Industry Day, the Highlight Lecture will be on: “MEV 1: The Worlds First Commercial Airbus delivered 863 aircraft in 2019, reasonably bad news over the past few months. The financial and close to its allocation of the forecast 20-year average; market pressures are also obvious: the fewer deliver- On-Orbit Servicing Mission”; Boeing planned to build and hand over about 860 jets ies, the less revenue and the smaller the market share. • On Wednesday 14 October, Outreach Day, the IAF GNF will host the Astronaut Panel, with confirmed last year, for a combined total of approximately 1,840 Boeing, already badly damaged by the MAX produc- partcipatons from the main space agencies. aircraft. Boeing ultimately delivered just 380 units tion interruption and that aircraft’s disappointing re- because of the 737 MAX grounding, but the point is ception by customers, has every incentive to contain Visit www.iafastro.org to find out more and be part of the conversaton on that both companies were planning to build nearly as any further loss of market share. many aircraft as their average forecast for the next Nonetheless, more tough decisions loom. On the #CYBERSPACEIAC2020 20 years. In other words, even before the biggest Boeing side, a slower reintroduction of the MAX is in- downturn in aviation history, no room for any pro- evitable, as is a very slow service-entry process for the IAF Connecting @ll Space People duction growth existed. Take the other aircraft man- 777X. Airbus will have to cut narrowbody output fur- ufacturers into account, and you could surmise there ther. If long-haul travel does not return quickly—and SUPPORTED BY: OFFICIALOFFICIAL MEDIAMEDIA PARTNER:PARTNER: already was significant overproduction, particularly no indications suggest it will—Airbus will also have to in the narrowbody segment. take another hard look at A350 and A330neo rates, as Of course, the fallout from the novel corona virus painful as that may be. pandemic has made all these studies and production Remembering that earlier plans were unrealistic plans irrelevant. But industry needs to realize its will be particularly important once demand recovers. pre-COVID-19 plans were already unrealistic. One A more measured approach is needed this time despite c way or another, it had to go wrong, maybe not as dra- competitive incentives to do the opposite. www.iac2020.org 14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION > Accelerating sustainable propulsion p. 19 Preparing for 737 MAX service return p. 22 ‘The Golden Age Is Over’ BOEING

> PANDEMIC CAUSES UNHEARD-OF FALL IN DEMAND GE Aviation’s GE9X powers the Boeing 777X, which is in flight testing. > SLATTERY SUCCEEDS JOYCE AS CEO OF GE AVIATION > GE AVIATION TO REDEFINE TECHNOLOGY ROAD MAP And now? “The golden age is over,” says Sash Tusa, an aerospace analyst at Agency Partners in London. The Jens Flottau Frankfurt aircraft production and aftermarket services markets have been hit with ears from now, historians will look back and describe severe downturns at the same time. 2020 as a catalyst for fundamental change across the “That has never happened before,” notes Kevin Michaels, managing di- aviation sector. The novel coronavirus pandemic has rector of AeroDynamic Advisory. Yhad multiple, multifaceted effects across the aviation For OEMs, the coming years will be industry, some of which are still to unfold. characterized by lower profit margins and higher risk. Even before the pan- The engine sector is likely facing goldmine for partners GE and . demic, GE, Safran and their suppliers the most fundamental change. En- The IAE V2500 was highly successful were suffering from the grounding gine OEMs often have been their for Pratt, Rolls-Royce and MTU Aero of the Leap 1B-powered MAX and a own worst enemy, as troubled de - Engines. A business model that bet stalled buildup of Leap 1A engine pro- velopment programs led to dis- heavily on aftermarket revenues had duction for the A320neo. COVID-19 gruntled customers and billions of worked well for decades. More re - has walloped engine-makers just as dollars in extra costs. Every one of cently, engine sales at CFM and Pratt they were preparing for much larger the “big three”—GE Aviation, Pratt were lifted by brisk demand for the volumes, making massive investments & Whitney and Rolls-Royce—has new Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 to boost capacity only to be forced to a story to tell. But fundamentally, MAX narrowbodies. In a fast-growing retrench. They are also under pres- business was great until the crisis industry, there was plenty of money sure, particularly from governments hit. The CFM56 had proved to be a to be made. in Europe, to accelerate development

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION > Accelerating sustainable propulsion p. 19 Preparing for 737 MAX service return p. 22

of a new generation of environmentally at GE. Slattery, who is widely viewed of propulsion unanswered, he faces a friendly powerplants. as a change agent, faces the challenge daunting challenge at GE. The approach of hyper-disruptive of making GE Aviation operate more The longer it takes for a revolution- ‘The Golden Age technologies will challenge engine efficiently as it adjusts to lower output. ary engine to take shape, the easier OEMs more than aircraft manufac- GE’s pick of Slattery “makes 100% it will be to put together a workable turers or airlines. While they may perfect sense,” Pilarski says. “[Joyce business case for interim technol- hope to be able to play a key role in and Slattery] are very different peo- ogies. Unlike Pratt, neither GE nor the upcoming push to use hydrogen— ple who fit the requirements of GE Rolls-Royce have a geared turbofan Is Over’ particularly if it is treated as a drop- Aviation at a given time. David is a (GTF) in production. “Eventually, they

in solution based on existing engine superb engineer, GE AVIATION have to go down the architectures—there is no guarantee and John is more the GTF path,” Michaels that today’s incumbents have what it business type. Both says. He thinks it is takes to lead in electric propulsion. are leaders. They set likely that GE is After all, their specialty has long been visions, and people working on a geared burning hydrocarbons as safely and follow them.” turbofan behind efficiently as possible. The base from the scenes while “Electric is still engineering,” says which Slattery will Rolls is developing Avitas Senior Vice President Adam start work was built the Ultra Fan large Pilarski. But it is very different engi- by Joyce. GE is known geared turbofan. neering. Because of these emerging for superbly engi- The Leap engine technologies, engine life cycles are neered engines. But with a fan-drive likely to be shorter than the 20 years beleaguered airlines gearbox would likely with which industry incumbents have and lessors will have be around 3% more grown comfortable. little to no money to fuel-efficient than It is at this inflection point that David spend on those en- the current-genera- Joyce leaves the stage as the long-time gines, and it remains tion Pratt GTF, es- CEO of GE Aviation, and John Slattery unclear when Boeing John Slattery, incoming timates one senior enters as his successor. Slattery, an will be able to afford GE Aviation CEO industry source. ambitious leasing executive from to launch a successor The executive noted Ireland, built his career in aerospace to the 737 MAX narrowbody family. that the current Leap engine is also manufacturing running Embraer’s “Guys like Joyce are not really lighter than the competing power- Commercial Aviation unit. He was the needed right now,” Pilarski says. plant, enabling additional savings. The

BOEING driving force behind the deal to merge “Things have changed, and you have direct-drive Leap was GE’s response the unit into Boeing, which would have to think about the industry in new when it was forced to detour from its launched major growth in joint future terms. Slattery knows how the busi- long-term technology development projects, he hoped. GE declined to ness works and has the creativity to road map as Boeing launched the PANDEMIC CAUSES UNHEARD-OF FALL IN DEMAND > GE Aviation’s GE9X powers the make either Joyce or Slattery available deal with the situation.” 737 MAX in response to the Airbus Boeing 777X, which is in flight testing. > SLATTERY SUCCEEDS JOYCE AS CEO OF GE AVIATION for an interview. Pilarski’s advice to Boeing is to keep A320neo and needed an engine quickly While Joyce doubled GE Aviation’s the MAX going for as long as it can. from incumbent CFM. > GE AVIATION TO REDEFINE TECHNOLOGY ROAD MAP And now? “The golden age is over,” sales and expanded its backlog ten- “And then we will need a moonshot in With demand slumped, Slattery has says Sash Tusa, an aerospace analyst fold during his 12 years at the helm, the next 15 years, a revolutionary ap- time to map out a long-term strategy at Agency Partners in London. The he departs amid a bloodbath caused proach, something new,” he says. “We to take on Pratt and Rolls. Jens Flottau Frankfurt aircraft production and aftermarket by COVID-19. In the second quarter need totally green aircraft, and you Meanwhile, service entry lies ahead services markets have been hit with of 2020, new engine installations were don’t get there in small steps.” for the 105,000-lb.-thrust GE9X pow- ears from now, historians will look back and describe severe downturns at the same time. half the level of a year earlier, while What that moonshot is going to ering the Boeing 777X, the world’s 2020 as a catalyst for fundamental change across the “That has never happened before,” spares and aftermarket shop visits look like and when the industry will most powerful commercial aircraft notes Kevin Michaels, managing di- each declined by 55%. Even with the be ready for it is a matter of dis- engine. Engine durability issues had aviation sector. The novel coronavirus pandemic has rector of AeroDynamic Advisory. buffer of a strong military engines cussion. Tusa believes that hybrid- delayed the first flight of the aircraft Yhad multiple, multifaceted effects across the aviation For OEMs, the coming years will be business, quarterly sales were down electric propulsion will be the tech- by more than half a year into Janu- industry, some of which are still to unfold. characterized by lower profit margins 44%, to $4.4 billion. GE Aviation was nology of the 2030s, followed by ary 2020. Now the COVID-19 crisis and higher risk. Even before the pan- forced to cut 5,400 jobs as it posted a hydrogen as the technology of the has hit an already weak market for The engine sector is likely facing goldmine for partners GE and Safran. demic, GE, Safran and their suppliers quarterly loss of $700 million. GECAS, 2040s. Michaels says conventional large widebodies. If anything, smaller the most fundamental change. En- The IAE V2500 was highly successful were suffering from the grounding GE Aviation’s sister company, decided engine technology will continue to long-haul aircraft such as the Boeing gine OEMs often have been their for Pratt, Rolls-Royce and MTU Aero of the Leap 1B-powered MAX and a to cancel almost half of its outstanding play a big role longer because neither 787-8 and -9 are increasingly attrac- own worst enemy, as troubled de - Engines. A business model that bet stalled buildup of Leap 1A engine pro- orders for Boeing 737 MAXs, a total of those two new paths is realistic in tive to airlines because they combine velopment programs led to dis- heavily on aftermarket revenues had duction for the A320neo. COVID-19 of 69 aircraft, all of them powered by the short term. “It is going to take lower unit costs with much lower trip gruntled customers and billions of worked well for decades. More re - has walloped engine-makers just as Leap 1B engines. much longer to transition to hydro- costs than the 777X. At some point, dollars in extra costs. Every one of cently, engine sales at CFM and Pratt they were preparing for much larger The collapse of the Boeing-Embraer gen and electric,” he predicts. a large widebody will be needed on the “big three”—GE Aviation, Pratt were lifted by brisk demand for the volumes, making massive investments deal occurred at the same time as Slattery is known for thinking some routes, but doubts are growing & Whitney and Rolls-Royce—has new Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 to boost capacity only to be forced to GE Aviation’s parent company, led several steps ahead as he takes into that the 777X’s initial business case a story to tell. But fundamentally, MAX narrowbodies. In a fast-growing retrench. They are also under pres- by Larry Culp, was looking for an account technology trends and likely can be met. business was great until the crisis industry, there was plenty of money sure, particularly from governments outsider to succeed Joyce, who was moves by his competitors. But with As for that moonshot, the adoption hit. The CFM56 had proved to be a to be made. in Europe, to accelerate development nearing the end of his 40-year career so many questions about the future of biofuels on a much larger scale

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 17 PROPULSION

could significantly reduce carbon- on which the Leap has a monopoly, will based on the cycles for heavy checks. dioxide emissions with existing en- continue to lose share to the A320neo The flight-hour agreements typically gines until the industry is ready. in the narrowbody market. Since the cut that into seven annual installments Michaels believes biofuels may be the beginning of 2020, more than 800 of roughly one-seventh the cost of the way to go for long-haul aircraft even MAXs have been cut from the back- overhaul. More cash comes in upfront, for decades, given that there is no ob- log as customers exercise clauses and the engine manufacturer can de- vious alternative in sight. That would that become applicable after delivery cide to some degree when to bring the certainly boost the 777X’s prospects. is delayed by one year. While Boeing engine in for an inspection, based on “Looking back, 2010-20 can be has projected the MAX and A320neo the maintenance and inflight data gen- viewed as the golden era of innova- families will roughly split the market, erated during routine operations. tion,” Michaels says. He points to Tusa thinks Boeing’s share could “It is very smart,” Tusa says. “The Pratt’s introduction of the GTF, which drop as low as 35%. problem is: If airlines don’t fly the en- marked its return to the narrowbody On the A320neo, the Leap must gine, they don’t pay as much.” To make market, and GE’s development of the compete against the GTF for a shrink- matters worse, if aircraft are retired and are broken up, the market is flood- ed with relatively inexpensive engine spares, particularly when demand for COMMERCIAL JET ENGINES them is so low. This is a further dent Expected Revenues and Market Share, 2020-29 (U.S. $ billion) in the potential market. Single-Aisles Twin-Aisles These total-care packages also usu- ally do not transfer when an engine is sold to a new owner, a factor of uncer- tainty in times of high volatility. Big airlines want to do their engine main- tenance in-house anyway, and they will plan to keep it that way for strategic reasons as long as they can. “It is hard to see a super-happy picture for anybody in this,” Pilarski says. But he expects Slattery will find creative ways to deal with customer Pratt & Whitney CFM GE Rolls-Royce Trent XWB Other Rolls-Royce Engines arrangements while at the same time protecting GE Aviation’s interests. Source: Teal Group “When aircraft get older, virtually all the value is in the engine,” he notes. “But what is the value of the engine Leap family of engines succeeding ing number of aircraft. Airbus has re- these days?” the CFM56. “We are now going to take duced Neo production by about one- At GE, there are also more struc- a pause,” he adds. third from 2019, to 40 per month, and tural questions to be answered. In But taking pauses is not something Tusa believes the airframer could be 2007, GE Aviation acquired Smiths Slattery is used to. At Embraer, he forced to scale down to 25 per month Aerospace for $4.8 billion, a lot of pushed hard for the launch of a new because of weak demand. money then and even more by today’s Source: Teal Group that would compete with While there is an obvious correla- standards. Smiths’ products include the ATR 72 and Canada tion between the number of new air- flight management systems; power Dash 8-400. The project was to be craft produced and the number of generation, distribution and conver- based on a more modern yet conven- engines needed, aircraft and engine sion; actuation products for flight tional engine that would have been OEMs are not equally affected. With control systems; landing gear and open to hybrid elements down the fewer new aircraft coming into the thrust reversers as well as several en- road. The Embraer board was skepti- market, some older ones may stay gine components. The takeover was cal, and the project was shelved when in service longer in spite of the cur- part of GE Aviation’s drive to broaden the sale to Boeing collapsed. rent spike in retirements. And as en- its portfolio beyond the core engine Slattery brings to GE a fresh pair of gine-makers traditionally make most business. In hindsight, the Smiths eyes that likely will see opportunities of the money with heavy checks, there deal is something the company may someone like Joyce, who has grown up would be some positive opposite effect. now not be happy about and some - inside the system, may not have. And The flight-hour agreements that thing that was not really necessary, while cost efficiencies might not have have become so popular with the en- Pilarski argues. been a top priority when business was gine OEMs are an interesting case, So will the crisis lead GE Aviation booming, they will be much more crit- and it is not yet clear how they will to focus on what is really core— ical in a time of crisis. weather the crisis. The traditional building great engines—and leave “GE Aviation was scaled for a lot of shop-visit-based model meant that vertical integration to rival Raytheon growth and is already horribly dam- OEMs were waiting years for serious Technologies? The answers are an- aged by MAX” before the pandemic, maintenance, repair and overhaul rev- other big part of Slattery’s next game Tusa says. He predicts that the MAX, enues to come in, typically seven years of chess. c

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION could significantly reduce carbon- on which the Leap has a monopoly, will based on the cycles for heavy checks. “In some cases, we’ve said to our - dioxide emissions with existing en- continue to lose share to the A320neo The flight-hour agreements typically selves, ‘Maybe we need to skip ahead gines until the industry is ready. in the narrowbody market. Since the cut that into seven annual installments to technologies that we thought were Michaels believes biofuels may be the beginning of 2020, more than 800 of roughly one-seventh the cost of the GENERATION further away. This pandemic might way to go for long-haul aircraft even MAXs have been cut from the back- overhaul. More cash comes in upfront, actually [offer us an] opportunity to for decades, given that there is no ob- log as customers exercise clauses and the engine manufacturer can de- pull forward.’” vious alternative in sight. That would that become applicable after delivery cide to some degree when to bring the Calio, president of the company’s certainly boost the 777X’s prospects. is delayed by one year. While Boeing engine in for an inspection, based on JUMPSTART commercial engine business prior to “Looking back, 2010-20 can be has projected the MAX and A320neo the maintenance and inflight data gen- assuming his role in January, echoes viewed as the golden era of innova- families will roughly split the market, erated during routine operations. similar comments made by Airbus tion,” Michaels says. He points to Tusa thinks Boeing’s share could “It is very smart,” Tusa says. “The PRATT & WHITNEY STUDIES HYBRIDIZED GEARED TURBOFAN and Boeing executives who have in- Pratt’s introduction of the GTF, which drop as low as 35%. problem is: If airlines don’t fly the en- > dicated a potential shift in strategy marked its return to the narrowbody On the A320neo, the Leap must gine, they don’t pay as much.” To make ROLLS-ROYCE ACCELERATES AND WIDENS SUSTAINABLE AGENDA to accelerate the adoption of more market, and GE’s development of the compete against the GTF for a shrink- matters worse, if aircraft are retired > advanced technology for next-gener- and are broken up, the market is flood- ation designs. ed with relatively inexpensive engine Guy Norris Los Angeles While Boeing indicates it may move spares, particularly when demand for more quickly toward a new advanced, COMMERCIAL JET ENGINES them is so low. This is a further dent taggering under the impact of multiple hits of deferred en- but conventional, single-aisle concept Expected Revenues and Market Share, 2020-29 (U.S. $ billion) in the potential market. gine maintenance, the premature retirement of older fleets later this decade, Airbus is already Single-Aisles Twin-Aisles These total-care packages also usu- pivoting to more radical design stud- ally do not transfer when an engine is Sand wholesale production cutbacks, engine-makers have ies for the 2030s centered on hydro- sold to a new owner, a factor of uncer- seen setbacks on all fronts because of the COVID-19 pandemic. gen fuels and alternative propulsion as tainty in times of high volatility. Big part of France’s stimulus package and airlines want to do their engine main- But could there be glimmers of hope framers revise product-development its focus on sustainability. Although tenance in-house anyway, and they will amid the gloom? Both Pratt & Whitney strategies. it remains uncertain whether these plan to keep it that way for strategic and Rolls-Royce believe that, among Pratt & Whitney President Chris- plans can realistically support the de- reasons as long as they can. other side effects, the longer-term topher Calio says the pandemic has velopment of single-aisle-size aircraft “It is hard to see a super-happy impact of COVID-19 may accelerate forced the engine-maker to “really in- by the early 2030s, they will nonethe- picture for anybody in this,” Pilarski the adoption of advanced propulsion terrogate” its technology road map. less accelerate the maturation of the says. But he expects Slattery will find technology as governments tie stimu- “Where do we want to invest our new propulsion technologies required creative ways to deal with customer lus aid to environmental goals and air- scarce and precious dollars?” he asks. to achieve this goal. Pratt & Whitney CFM GE Rolls-Royce Trent XWB Other Rolls-Royce Engines arrangements while at the same time “We have to make some of those protecting GE Aviation’s interests. trades and choices to be ready for Source: Teal Group “When aircraft get older, virtually all what’s next,” Calio says. “Because I the value is in the engine,” he notes. think what’s next might come a little “But what is the value of the engine sooner than the rest of us previously Leap family of engines succeeding ing number of aircraft. Airbus has re- these days?” anticipated.” Although Pratt believes the CFM56. “We are now going to take duced Neo production by about one- At GE, there are also more struc- its PW1000G geared turbofan (GTF) a pause,” he adds. third from 2019, to 40 per month, and tural questions to be answered. In family is still relatively early in its de- But taking pauses is not something Tusa believes the airframer could be 2007, GE Aviation acquired Smiths velopment life cycle, the company is Slattery is used to. At Embraer, he forced to scale down to 25 per month Aerospace for $4.8 billion, a lot of pushed hard for the launch of a new because of weak demand. money then and even more by today’s Rolls-Royce is conducting a final Source: Teal Group turboprop that would compete with While there is an obvious correla- standards. Smiths’ products include round of low-emissions the ATR 72 and de Havilland Canada tion between the number of new air- flight management systems; power tests in the buildup to running the Dash 8-400. The project was to be craft produced and the number of generation, distribution and conver- UltraFan demonstrator in 2021. based on a more modern yet conven- engines needed, aircraft and engine sion; actuation products for flight tional engine that would have been OEMs are not equally affected. With control systems; landing gear and studying next-generation options to open to hybrid elements down the fewer new aircraft coming into the thrust reversers as well as several en- improve propulsive and thermal effi- road. The Embraer board was skepti- market, some older ones may stay gine components. The takeover was ciency as well as adaptations to make cal, and the project was shelved when in service longer in spite of the cur- part of GE Aviation’s drive to broaden the engine more compatible with fu- the sale to Boeing collapsed. rent spike in retirements. And as en- its portfolio beyond the core engine ture hybrid-electric power systems. Slattery brings to GE a fresh pair of gine-makers traditionally make most business. In hindsight, the Smiths During the first phase of the FAA’s eyes that likely will see opportunities of the money with heavy checks, there deal is something the company may Continuous Lower Energy, Emis - someone like Joyce, who has grown up would be some positive opposite effect. now not be happy about and some - sions and Noise (CLEEN) program, inside the system, may not have. And The flight-hour agreements that thing that was not really necessary, Pratt studied a series of potential while cost efficiencies might not have have become so popular with the en- Pilarski argues. propulsive-efficiency improvements, been a top priority when business was gine OEMs are an interesting case, So will the crisis lead GE Aviation including a short inlet and a low- booming, they will be much more crit- and it is not yet clear how they will to focus on what is really core— pressure- ratio fan. More recent work ical in a time of crisis. weather the crisis. The traditional building great engines—and leave under CLEEN II has shifted to the “GE Aviation was scaled for a lot of shop-visit-based model meant that vertical integration to rival Raytheon relatively unexploited thermodynamic growth and is already horribly dam- OEMs were waiting years for serious Technologies? The answers are an- potential of the core, where the com- aged by MAX” before the pandemic, maintenance, repair and overhaul rev- other big part of Slattery’s next game pany has focused on aerodynamic c

Tusa says. He predicts that the MAX, enues to come in, typically seven years of chess. ROLLS-ROYCE and cooling improvements to the

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 19 PROPULSION

high- pressure (HP) turbine as well as efficiency gains in the HP compressor. A test rig for the HP turbine is due to run this summer. The company is also working with NASA on potential next-generation more-electric GTF concept studies that would incorporate embedded megawatt-class generators. Awarded under NASA’s Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) program, the most recent contract is designed to plot a low-risk path toward evaluation on an Electric Powertrain Flight Demonstra- tion (EPFD) flying testbed later in the 2020s. The EAP/EPFD work builds on conceptual work for a developmental hybrid-electric GTF conducted with United Technologies Research Center during the past six years under a 2014 NASA award. Although details of the work have largely remained under wraps, Michael Winter, senior fellow for advanced technology at Pratt & Whitney, says the company’s preferred approach is a parallel turboelectric hybrid with a motor-starter generator mounted on the engine’s HP spool and a motor gen- erator on the low-pressure (LP) spool. “The value proposition here, be - fore you even think about batteries, is that I can optimize the engine at its optimal set points,” Winter said PRATT & WHITNEY at the CAFE Foundation and Verti- is a viable option. You’ve heard Airbus priorities are, where we need to put cal Flight Society’s Electric Aircraft say that is viable in the 2030-35 time our money and being laser- focused on Symposium on July 29. “I can avoid frame. So that’s something we’ll con- those,” Calio continues. “As a team, all the transients and trade all the tinue to invest in and be focused on, we are spending a lot of time to try energy between the spools and use because sustainability is at the core of and figure out what our technology that to essentially take advantage of everything we’ve done when we de- map should look like. What does de- some of the and surge margins signed and manufactured the GTF.” mand look like in 2021 and beyond? that are normally designed into these For the foreseeable future, improve- And what are the trends in the indus- propulsive systems.” ments will build on the baseline archi- try that we are going to have to adjust Pratt’s analysis indicates the opti- tecture of the GTF, which remains at our plans to?” mized configuration would be worth the core of the company’s commercial In the meantime, Calio says Pratt “about 3-5% energy efficiency for the strategy, Calio says. “The downturn is focusing on using the downturn commercial that fly today has required us to be pretty ruthless to accelerate LP turbine upgrades once it is developed and certified,” in how we prioritize our investment during shop visits. “This is a horrible Winter said. “That technology is and the things that we have to do in situation we’re all facing, but we try likely to be ready for availability for the business,” he notes. “The one thing to make the best of it from an output the next round of single-aisles when that we have absolutely kept front and and MRO perspective, so when this the aircraft-makers are ready to de- center is the GTF—that is central to industry finally recovers, which it velop them.” Pratt & Whitney and our future. So will, the GTF fleet will be in a much The European-led pivot to studies we’ve kept going with the upgrading better position than when we came of a low-emissions hydrogen-based- of the configuration for the GTF, reli- in,” he adds. “And so we continue to fuels ecosystem is also factoring into ability upgrades, life-limited parts prioritize MRO and LP turbine ret- Pratt’s future plan, Calio says. “Hydro- upgrades and retrofitting the rofits and output in our shops and in gen is certainly something that is out low-pressure turbine. So we continue our partner shops. there today. I think we’ll see that in the to invest both on the production side “We did a redesigned LP turbine smaller aircraft sooner rather than and also in the maintenance, repair to enhance robustness, and we really later,” he adds. “Obviously, we’ll have and overhaul [MRO] side. came up with an inventive and agile some space constraints, so we’ll have to “We are trying to be as incredibly way of retrofitting the fleet,” Calio deal with that, but I do believe that it surgical as we can about what the says. “We had a plan when we came

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION high- pressure (HP) turbine as well as efficiency gains in the HP compressor. velopment, so yes, I think [the fall- A test rig for the HP turbine is due to out from the pandemic] will acceler- run this summer. ate that,” Newby says. “I think it’s a The company is also working with good thing for the industry, and it’s a NASA on potential next-generation good thing for the environment if we more-electric GTF concept studies can use this period to actually invest that would incorporate embedded some money in helping the industry megawatt-class generators. Awarded get back but also put it back in a more under NASA’s Electrified Aircraft sustainable manner.” Propulsion (EAP) program, the most This, in turn, may drive the earlier recent contract is designed to plot a adoption of more ambitious propul- low-risk path toward evaluation on an sion, airframe and systems technology Electric Powertrain Flight Demonstra- developments than might otherwise tion (EPFD) flying testbed later in the have taken longer to evolve. “Within 2020s. The EAP/EPFD work builds on Europe, we are looking to what their conceptual work for a developmental future funding program might look hybrid-electric GTF conducted with like for a clean aviation program with- United Technologies Research Center in Horizon Europe,” Newby says. “The during the past six years under a 2014 strategic research innovation agenda NASA award. has been published, and there’s quite a Although details of the work have big emphasis on more disruptive con- largely remained under wraps, Michael figurations. These include looking at Winter, senior fellow for advanced more advanced derivatives of conven- technology at Pratt & Whitney, says tional designs but also hybrid-electric the company’s preferred approach is solutions and potentially hydrogen. So a parallel turboelectric hybrid with a you can see that’s the thinking about motor-starter generator mounted on what future funding programs might the engine’s HP spool and a motor gen- veer toward.” Pratt & Whitney is studying upgrade paths for future erator on the low-pressure (LP) spool. The stimulus packages also help “The value proposition here, be - geared turbofan variants, including more-electric sustain research across a wider fore you even think about batteries, adaptations with embedded starter-generators. spread of technology options, par- is that I can optimize the engine at ticularly for the smaller regional and its optimal set points,” Winter said PRATT & WHITNEY single-aisle sectors. “It’s that middle at the CAFE Foundation and Verti- is a viable option. You’ve heard Airbus priorities are, where we need to put into this year about how many we not just more of the same, but looking ground, I think, where it’s fascinating cal Flight Society’s Electric Aircraft say that is viable in the 2030-35 time our money and being laser- focused on would be able to accomplish, and of at different ways of growing back in because you’ve got hybrid electric Symposium on July 29. “I can avoid frame. So that’s something we’ll con- those,” Calio continues. “As a team, course with utilization down, we have a sustainable manner,” Newby says, in the mix, you’ve got fuel cells and all the transients and trade all the tinue to invest in and be focused on, we are spending a lot of time to try been able to schedule more of those citing the recently launched UK gov- you’ve got hydrogen,” Newby adds. energy between the spools and use because sustainability is at the core of and figure out what our technology LP turbine retrofits than we were able ernment-backed FlyZero project to “I think you’d be unwise to back one that to essentially take advantage of everything we’ve done when we de- map should look like. What does de- to anticipate. We are accelerating that, help the country’s aerospace industry horse at the moment.” some of the stall and surge margins signed and manufactured the GTF.” mand look like in 2021 and beyond? so by the time this year is over, we feel develop a zero-carbon commercial air- Following several years of research that are normally designed into these For the foreseeable future, improve- And what are the trends in the indus- the operating fleet that’s out there today craft by 2030. Led by the Aerospace into electric propulsion, the industry propulsive systems.” ments will build on the baseline archi- try that we are going to have to adjust will be in a much better position. Not Technology Institute (ATI), the Fly- now has “a more mature view as we Pratt’s analysis indicates the opti- tecture of the GTF, which remains at our plans to?” only with those that are rolling off the Zero project will begin with an initial understand what some of the chal- mized configuration would be worth the core of the company’s commercial In the meantime, Calio says Pratt line but those that are coming in for 12-month study of the design challeng- lenges are, particularly with respect “about 3-5% energy efficiency for the strategy, Calio says. “The downturn is focusing on using the downturn overhaul and getting upgraded.” es and market opportunities for poten- to battery energy density, for example, commercial transports that fly today has required us to be pretty ruthless to accelerate LP turbine upgrades For Rolls-Royce, also widely affect- tial zero-emissions-aircraft concepts. and battery weight,” he says. “On hy- once it is developed and certified,” in how we prioritize our investment during shop visits. “This is a horrible ed by the pandemic and the financial The study is part of a £400 million drogen, I think we’re on the way up in Winter said. “That technology is and the things that we have to do in situation we’re all facing, but we try woes of correcting long-running du- ($520 million) investment in aerospace terms of the level of interest, but there’s likely to be ready for availability for the business,” he notes. “The one thing to make the best of it from an output rability issues with the Trent 1000 R&D announced by London on July 20. still a lot of work to be done in terms the next round of single-aisles when that we have absolutely kept front and and MRO perspective, so when this engine, the sharper focus on sustain- With £200 million in government of how you handle it, the the aircraft-makers are ready to de- center is the GTF—that is central to industry finally recovers, which it ability may help accelerate future de- grants through ATI matched by indus- and some of the safety and certifica- velop them.” Pratt & Whitney and our future. So will, the GTF fleet will be in a much velopments on the road to recovery. try investment, the funding will sup- tion aspects as well.” The European-led pivot to studies we’ve kept going with the upgrading better position than when we came “It gives us the chance to look at new port continued development of Rolls’ So which will come out on top? “It of a low-emissions hydrogen-based- of the configuration for the GTF, reli- in,” he adds. “And so we continue to market opportunities in sustainable UltraFan next-generation engine fam- might end up that it’s a kind of time- fuels ecosystem is also factoring into ability upgrades, life-limited parts prioritize MRO and LP turbine ret- propulsion, and I think there is gen- ily, future wing design work at Airbus based solution, where there might be Pratt’s future plan, Calio says. “Hydro- upgrades and retrofitting the rofits and output in our shops and in eral pressure from both the public UK, a power systems project led by one solution for now via hybrid electric gen is certainly something that is out low-pressure turbine. So we continue our partner shops. and government to try and grow back Safran Electrical & Power UK and a or something, and then maybe a more there today. I think we’ll see that in the to invest both on the production side “We did a redesigned LP turbine greener, as it were,” says Alan Newby, cabin systems project led by Williams disruptive one in the future,” Newby smaller aircraft sooner rather than and also in the maintenance, repair to enhance robustness, and we really director of aerospace technology and Advanced Engineering. says. “That’s what most of us are look- later,” he adds. “Obviously, we’ll have and overhaul [MRO] side. came up with an inventive and agile future programs at Rolls-Royce. “There have also been stimulus ing at now, and that’s why I really wel- some space constraints, so we’ll have to “We are trying to be as incredibly way of retrofitting the fleet,” Calio “Therefore, you’re seeing a lot of packages in France and in Germany come initiatives like FlyZero.” deal with that, but I do believe that it surgical as we can about what the says. “We had a plan when we came stimulus packages for the industry, looking at advanced technology de- Similar to Pratt, Rolls-Royce is

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 21 PROPULSION

exploring new ways to bring the po- Embedded Electrical Starter-Gener- England, facility by the end of 2020. tential operational benefi ts of hybrid- ator demonstrator with a modified “We can create some kind of electric technology into gas turbines Adour engine—and, more recently, micro- hybridization, where you’ve for single-aisle and larger applica- the 2.5-megawatt AE2100-driven got some level of stored energy that tions. “Wholesale propulsive power generator at the heart of the now you can use to supplement onboard from electrification will be unlikely terminated E-Fan X hybrid-electric power for transient assist, particular- for the foreseeable future, but that power-generation system—have en- ly where we might be able to cut the doesn’t mean to say you won’t get ben- couraged further studies. Ground corner oˆ a particularly arduous part efi ts from it,” Newby says. Experience tests of the generator are due to be of the operating envelope and trade gained on the company’s long-running completed in the company’s Bristol, power across shafts, for example,” Newby says. “We’ve got some quite CFM’s revised production plan neat ideas on that.” While work continues to support includes protection for disruptive propulsion-technology future rate increases. research, Rolls’ nearer-term focus remains on encouraging the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels and the realization of its six-year eˆ ort to build and run the fi rst UltraFan demonstra- tor. Parts for the initial engine, which is sized for the thrust needs of current large twin widebodies, are being as- sembled in readiness for integration and running in 2021. Incorporating a fan-drive gearbox for the fi rst time on any turbofan of this size, the 84,000-lb.-thrust Ultra- Fan demonstrator is designed to prove not only the viability of the geared concept for widebody applications but also the operability of an archi- tecture that can be scaled anywhere from 25,000 lb. to 100,000 lb. PHIIPPE TRPA “It’s the blueprint for the next-gen- eration engine,” Newby Protection Plan says. “From our point of view, whether AS THE AEROSPACE INDUSTRY TRIES TO MANAGE THE STEEPEST DELIVERY or not it is fueled by sustainable avia- ramp-down in commercial history, CFM’s position has been one of the tion fuel or even ultimately hydrogen most challenging. Itself at the head of a complex supply chain, the General Electric- in the long-term future, you’re still Safran joint venture had dramatically improved its delivery performance to Boeing going to need a highly efficient gas turbine. That’s because those fuels when the 737 MAX crisis began to bite. Having ended 2018 with 2,162 deliveries may be in short supply as production to Airbus and Boeing, of which 1,118 were Leap 1s, CFM completed 2019 only ramps up, and we’re not quite sure marginally lower, with 2,127 shipments. Yet of these, 1,736 were Leap 1s. what the cost will be. So it’s still im- Now, with Airbus also slashing production of A320neos in 2020 in response mensely important, in our view, that to COVID-19, CFM’s containment strategy is focusing on supporting the service you have an engine that minimizes reentry of the Leap 1B-powered MAX, balancing Leap 1A/B production rates to consumption of fuel.” match the new market reality and being ready for an eventual recovery. “We have A second phase of ground testing of the UltraFan’s advanced low-emis- plans in place with both airframers that enable us to continue producing Leap sions system has begun at engines at a reduced rate while protecting our ability to accelerate production as Rolls’ Derby, England, site. “We’re do- needed in the future,” CFM President and CEO Gael Meheust says. ing some operability work and some With Airbus and Boeing rates stabilizing at newer low levels, CFM’s near-term final emissions mapping as well as task is helping manage reactivation of the stored MAX fl eet. “We’ve been helping looking at some control system opti- our customers with key activities such as proper engine preservation, completing mization,” Newby says. “This isn’t so time-sensitive tasks and pulling forward planned maintenance,” says Meheust. much about the chemical processes of the combustion—we know that “We also developed a ‘Re-EIS’ ( reentry into service) checklist that includes tasks works. This is about integrating it like line maintenance training, spare engine and parts provisioning, and tooling into a system. That is one of the last availability, all with a goal of ensuring minimum disruption and maximum aircraft pieces of the puzzle to come in, and availability. Having this process already in place has become a huge advantage as it’s now about driving the parts home, airlines are now using this checklist to resume and expand fl ight schedules.” c and then really getting ready to go on test next year.” c

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION exploring new ways to bring the po- Embedded Electrical Starter-Gener- England, facility by the end of 2020. tential operational benefi ts of hybrid- ator demonstrator with a modified “We can create some kind of VIRTUAL electric technology into gas turbines Adour engine—and, more recently, micro- hybridization, where you’ve for single-aisle and larger applica- the 2.5-megawatt AE2100-driven got some level of stored energy that tions. “Wholesale propulsive power generator at the heart of the now you can use to supplement onboard September 22-24, 2020 from electrification will be unlikely terminated E-Fan X hybrid-electric power for transient assist, particular- for the foreseeable future, but that power-generation system—have en- ly where we might be able to cut the Co-located with doesn’t mean to say you won’t get ben- couraged further studies. Ground corner oˆ a particularly arduous part efi ts from it,” Newby says. Experience tests of the generator are due to be of the operating envelope and trade gained on the company’s long-running completed in the company’s Bristol, power across shafts, for example,” Newby says. “We’ve got some quite CFM’s revised production plan neat ideas on that.” While work continues to support includes protection for disruptive propulsion-technology future rate increases. research, Rolls’ nearer-term focus THE POWER OF VIRTUAL remains on encouraging the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels and the realization of its six-year eˆ ort to build • 1:1 meetings in the privacy of and run the fi rst UltraFan demonstra- your home/offi ce tor. Parts for the initial engine, which • Interact and collaborate on a is sized for the thrust needs of current large twin widebodies, are being as- global scale sembled in readiness for integration • Group and invitation chat rooms and running in 2021. for focused discussions Incorporating a fan-drive gearbox for the fi rst time on any turbofan of • Event accessible 2 weeks prior this size, the 84,000-lb.-thrust Ultra- to offi cial date to registered Fan demonstrator is designed to prove attendees/exhibitors not only the viability of the geared concept for widebody applications • No limits on geographical location but also the operability of an archi- tecture that can be scaled anywhere from 25,000 lb. to 100,000 lb. PHIIPPE TRPA “It’s the blueprint for the next-gen- eration gas turbine engine,” Newby Protection Plan says. “From our point of view, whether AS THE AEROSPACE INDUSTRY TRIES TO MANAGE THE STEEPEST DELIVERY or not it is fueled by sustainable avia- MRO Asia-Pacifi c delivers ramp-down in commercial jet airliner history, CFM’s position has been one of the tion fuel or even ultimately hydrogen most challenging. Itself at the head of a complex supply chain, the General Electric- in the long-term future, you’re still live and on-demand conference Safran joint venture had dramatically improved its delivery performance to Boeing going to need a highly efficient gas turbine. That’s because those fuels when the 737 MAX crisis began to bite. Having ended 2018 with 2,162 deliveries may be in short supply as production content, product demos to Airbus and Boeing, of which 1,118 were Leap 1s, CFM completed 2019 only ramps up, and we’re not quite sure marginally lower, with 2,127 shipments. Yet of these, 1,736 were Leap 1s. what the cost will be. So it’s still im- Now, with Airbus also slashing production of A320neos in 2020 in response mensely important, in our view, that and presentations to COVID-19, CFM’s containment strategy is focusing on supporting the service you have an engine that minimizes reentry of the Leap 1B-powered MAX, balancing Leap 1A/B production rates to consumption of fuel.” • COVID-19 Crisis – What is the latest? How long will this go on? match the new market reality and being ready for an eventual recovery. “We have A second phase of ground testing How will operators recover? of the UltraFan’s advanced low-emis- plans in place with both airframers that enable us to continue producing Leap sions combustion system has begun at • Where will the Asia-Pacifi c region be in terms of industry recovery engines at a reduced rate while protecting our ability to accelerate production as Rolls’ Derby, England, site. “We’re do- needed in the future,” CFM President and CEO Gael Meheust says. ing some operability work and some by year end? With Airbus and Boeing rates stabilizing at newer low levels, CFM’s near-term final emissions mapping as well as task is helping manage reactivation of the stored MAX fl eet. “We’ve been helping looking at some control system opti- • Survival strategies for smaller MRO’s and third-party MRO services mization,” Newby says. “This isn’t so our customers with key activities such as proper engine preservation, completing • Workforce furloughs, layoffs, shop closings time-sensitive tasks and pulling forward planned maintenance,” says Meheust. much about the chemical processes of the combustion—we know that “We also developed a ‘Re-EIS’ ( reentry into service) checklist that includes tasks works. This is about integrating it like line maintenance training, spare engine and parts provisioning, and tooling into a system. That is one of the last availability, all with a goal of ensuring minimum disruption and maximum aircraft pieces of the puzzle to come in, and Multiple Entry Points for Access mroasia.aviationweek.com availability. Having this process already in place has become a huge advantage as it’s now about driving the parts home, airlines are now using this checklist to resume and expand fl ight schedules.” c and then really getting ready to go on test next year.” c #MROAP |

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Long-haul LCCs’ COVID-19 recovery p. 26 U.S. regionals’ pandemic struggles p. 27 FAA NextGen hits slowdown p. 28 Counter-drone tech FAA trials near p. 30 DIGGING DEEP > LESSORS CUT CREATIVE DEALS TO HELP KEY CUSTOMERS > TRAVEL DEMAND DIP CREAT E S CASH FLOW ISSUES FOR MOST AIRLINES > AIRCRAFT LEASE PAYMENTS AMONG MOST AT-RISK SHORT-TERM OBLIGATIONS PIAINNT PHT EPRIEAIATINNET

Southwest Airlines has sold 10 of its Boeing 737 MAXs to lessors.

Sean Broderick Washington about 150 of its all-737 fleet, which numbered 737 total aircraft on June 30. he profundity of the airline industry downturn and its Lufthansa Group, which owns all but uncertain pace of recovery are forcing lessors to be both 104 of the 760 aircraft its carriers oper- patient and creative as airlines struggle to pay monthly ate, will consider selling some of them to help pay down debt. The airline re- Tinvoices and manage their fl eets. In some cases, the strife ceived a $10.1 billion fi nancial injection is creating opportunities that well-managed lessors are leveraging arranged by the German government, to come out stronger post-crisis. including a $3.4 billion loan with an es- calating interest rate. Selling some of its A common side e ect of an airline lessor, putting much-needed cash in aircraft could help Lufthansa pay down industry downturn is requests for the carrier’s hands. Virgin Atlantic the loan while the interest rate is low. breaks on leases. With about half of and Air Lease Corp. recently were par- Aircraft and engine sales are usually the global fleet under some type of ty to a more complex deal tied to the mutually benefi cial: They give airlines lease, the current crisis is no exception. airline’s attempted restructuring via cash and provide buyers with assets But the severity of the situation has bankruptcy. Virgin has - they can use—either via leases or by re- created some unusual openings for 900neos and A350-1000s on order, and selling them. Distressed market condi- lessors to support customers. also has signed up to take some of each tions can present challenges, however. The most extreme example is at from Air Lease. The lessor agreed to “The trading markets have been Norwegian Air Shuttle, where a group swap delivery positions so that Virgin’s quite slow recently,” says Steve Wil- of lessors converted some of the carri- leased aircraft will come fi rst. liamson, vice president of acquisitions er’s outstanding lease obligations into “Their direct buys were resched- and trading at Aviation Leas- equity stakes as part of a larger deal uled to later time frames, which means ing, which specializes in midlife aircraft that includes state-provided funding. the airline has to pay less in fee deliv- and engines. “Most sellers are looking “We won’t see many of those type ery deposits to Airbus,” says Steven to avoid the perception that they are of structures happening,” says Aengus Udvar-Hazy, Air Lease executive desperate. However, all sales to this Kelly, CEO of AerCap, which is now board chairman. “Therefore, they can point have a stigma of being distressed, the largest shareholder in Norwegian, protect their cash liquidity position.” and buyers are looking to capitalize.” with a 15.9% stake. “Obviously, the en- The dire financial circumstances Relationships are at a premium in vironment we’re in was the reason mean that even the most financially these circumstances. why [we] and other lessors proceed- solid airlines are turning to lessors “Many of the lessors are not going ed with the Norwegian arrangement, for help. , famous for wide [requests for proposals], as which is highly unusual. I can’t think for paying cash for its Boeing 737s was the case pre-COVID[-19] , and in- of one like this ever before.” and leasing only to add fl eet fl exibility, stead are focusing on smaller groups While equity in a customer remains raised $815 million in a second-quar- of known counterparties,” Williamson rare, deals structured around their air- ter sale-leaseback of 10 737-800s and says. “Execution risk is of paramount craft are more common. Usually, these 10 737 MAXs to unnamed lessors. Avi- importance. People do not want their are sale-leasebacks that move assets ation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery buyers backing out of transactions, from the airline’s balance sheet to the database shows the carrier leases as the sellers know that they are not

2 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Long-haul LCCs’ COVID-19 recovery p. 26 U.S. regionals’ pandemic struggles p. 27 FAA NextGen hits slowdown p. 28 Counter-drone tech FAA trials near p. 30

likely to see higher numbers bringing In most cases, short-term deals were “The lower level of deferrals granted assets back to market.” struck, with payment delays of about over the past three months speaks to While creative deals likely will con- three months and repayment windows the slower pace at which we received DIGGING DEEP tinue, they will be outnumbered by stretching out to about 12 months. additional requests,” Plueger says. LESSORS CUT CREATIVE DEALS TO HELP KEY CUSTOMERS traditional, straightforward breaks on “Deferral requests are considered “And [it] reflects the amount of time we > lease payments. The novel coronavirus on a case-by-case basis, with 2-4 spend to exercise due diligence on each > TRAVEL DEMAND DIP CREAT E S CASH FLOW ISSUES FOR MOST AIRLINES pandemic has affected every major air months of payment delays not out of request and understand which custom- transport market in the world, forcing the ordinary,” Cowen and Co. analyst ers really need our help,” Plueger says. > AIRCRAFT LEASE PAYMENTS AMONG MOST AT-RISK SHORT-TERM OBLIGATIONS airlines to ground aircraft and cut Helane Becker wrote in a late July Most of Air Lease’s deferrals cover flights. The International Air Trans- preview of second-quarter earnings. partial payments, with repayment pe- port Association sees global airline In May, lessors reported that some riods from four to 12 months. full-year 2020 revenues falling 50%, Chinese airlines granted deferrals were AerCap, which had deferral agree- thanks to a 54% drop in traffic mea- starting to repay the delayed rents, ments covering $429 million in pay- sured by revenue passenger kilome- suggesting that the initial wave of ad- ments as of June 30, says the situation ters. Recovery to 2019 levels, already justment might be sufficient. COVID-19 appears to be stabilizing. “The level constrained somewhat by the 737 outbreaks in the region seemed under of requests for deferrals has slowed PIAINNT PHT EPRIEAIATINNET MAX global fleet grounding, is not ex- control, while hotspots in Europe were down as traffic has begun to recover,” pected before 2023 at the earliest. The seemingly being contained. AerCap’s Kelly says. lost revenue and gloomy outlook have However, optimism about a steady GE’s GECAS lessor arm within its forced airlines into immediate and recovery was soon dashed as COVID-19 GE Capital unit has received deferral far-reaching cost-cutting modes. cases in key markets including Canada, requests from 80% of its 225 customers Southwest Airlines has sold 10 of its Boeing 737 MAXs to lessors. While employee costs can be re - the UK and the U.S. convinced govern- and granted requests to 60% of them. duced by limiting work or reducing ments to expand existing travel restric- Perhaps most important, airlines are staff, expenses such as aircraft and tions or issue new ones. International making good on the modified payment Sean Broderick Washington about 150 of its all-737 fleet, which engine lease payments are trickier. air links remain minimal, and demand plans, suggesting their financial posi- numbered 737 total aircraft on June 30. Airlines had an urgent problem when in some major domestic markets re- tions are improving. he profundity of the airline industry downturn and its Lufthansa Group, which owns all but the pandemic’s ramifications became mains depressed. Among the conse- “The amount of the payback of uncertain pace of recovery are forcing lessors to be both 104 of the 760 aircraft its carriers oper- clear: Revenue needed to pay for their quences: Airlines need more help. these short-term deferrals is now patient and creative as airlines struggle to pay monthly ate, will consider selling some of them most important equipment was no lon- “We are starting to see limited re- far in excess of any new requests for to help pay down debt. The airline re- ger coming in but monthly bills were. quests for another round of deferrals some small deferrals,” says Air Lease’s Tinvoices and manage their fl eets. In some cases, the strife ceived a $10.1 billion fi nancial injection Udvar-Hazy. “It’s now flipped into a is creating opportunities that well-managed lessors are leveraging arranged by the German government, positive, where cash flow [from] the to come out stronger post-crisis. including a $3.4 billion loan with an es- The Lufthansa Group will consider selling some of its 656 owned repayment of deferrals that we made in calating interest rate. Selling some of its aircraft, including 16 Airbus A350s, to help pay down debt. [the first quarter] and early part of [the A common side e ect of an airline lessor, putting much-needed cash in aircraft could help Lufthansa pay down second quarter] is coming back in. And industry downturn is requests for the carrier’s hands. Virgin Atlantic the loan while the interest rate is low. those amounts significantly exceed any breaks on leases. With about half of and Air Lease Corp. recently were par- Aircraft and engine sales are usually new requests that [have been] quite the global fleet under some type of ty to a more complex deal tied to the mutually benefi cial: They give airlines limited in the last several weeks.” lease, the current crisis is no exception. airline’s attempted restructuring via cash and provide buyers with assets While the deferral requests may be But the severity of the situation has bankruptcy. Virgin has Airbus A330- they can use—either via leases or by re- slowing down, there is evidence the created some unusual openings for 900neos and A350-1000s on order, and selling them. Distressed market condi- second round of deals includes more lessors to support customers. also has signed up to take some of each tions can present challenges, however. favorable terms for airlines as they con- The most extreme example is at from Air Lease. The lessor agreed to “The trading markets have been tinue to adjust to lower demand trends. Norwegian Air Shuttle, where a group swap delivery positions so that Virgin’s quite slow recently,” says Steve Wil- Fly Leasing, which had 86 aircraft and of lessors converted some of the carri- leased aircraft will come fi rst. liamson, vice president of acquisitions seven engines in its portfolio as of June er’s outstanding lease obligations into “Their direct buys were resched- and trading at Contrail Aviation Leas- 30, says it will defer less total rent than equity stakes as part of a larger deal uled to later time frames, which means ing, which specializes in midlife aircraft previously anticipated. But $32 million that includes state-provided funding. the airline has to pay less in fee deliv- and engines. “Most sellers are looking of the company’s projected $83 million “We won’t see many of those type ery deposits to Airbus,” says Steven to avoid the perception that they are in deferrals, or nearly 40%, is not ex- of structures happening,” says Aengus Udvar-Hazy, Air Lease executive desperate. However, all sales to this Savvy lessors that have been through from certain customers,” says Air Lease pected to be repaid until 2022 or later. Kelly, CEO of AerCap, which is now board chairman. “Therefore, they can point have a stigma of being distressed, previous downturns know the drill, and Corp. President John Plueger. “So far, About half of the lessor’s 41 customers the largest shareholder in Norwegian, protect their cash liquidity position.” and buyers are looking to capitalize.” they are capitalized for it. Their cus- I can tell you the volume of those in- are expected to sign deals with an av- with a 15.9% stake. “Obviously, the en- The dire financial circumstances Relationships are at a premium in tomers ask for deferrals, or abatements bound requests is much lower than it erage deferral of seven months. vironment we’re in was the reason mean that even the most financially these circumstances. in rarer cases, to help with cash flow. was for the initial requests. Of course, “At the very beginning of the crisis, why [we] and other lessors proceed- solid airlines are turning to lessors “Many of the lessors are not going The deals vary by customer. But, in the impacts of COVID are evolving [in] pretty much every airline just raised ed with the Norwegian arrangement, for help. Southwest Airlines, famous for wide [requests for proposals], as general, an airline will ask for a mul- real-time, and therefore the status of their hand and said they wanted a which is highly unusual. I can’t think for paying cash for its Boeing 737s was the case pre-COVID[-19] , and in- timonth discount on leases, pledging deferrals can change day by day.” deferral,” says Fly Leasing CEO Colm of one like this ever before.” and leasing only to add fl eet fl exibility, stead are focusing on smaller groups to repay the difference down the road. As of Aug 6., Air Lease had deferral Barrington. “We are finding that the While equity in a customer remains raised $815 million in a second-quar- of known counterparties,” Williamson As the pandemic’s scope became agreements in place with 59% of its 105 majority of airlines want to keep the rare, deals structured around their air- ter sale-leaseback of 10 737-800s and says. “Execution risk is of paramount apparent—January and February for customers, covering $190 million in leased aircraft and are prepared to craft are more common. Usually, these 10 737 MAXs to unnamed lessors. Avi- importance. People do not want their the Asia-Pacific region and slightly payments. Most of this—$125 million work with us to find ways of doing this. are sale-leasebacks that move assets ation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery buyers backing out of transactions, later for the rest of the world—airlines touching 46% of the customer base— We know that we will succeed only if from the airline’s balance sheet to the database shows the carrier leases as the sellers know that they are not approached lessors and asked for help. was in place by early May. our customers succeed.” c

2 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 25 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

The Challenge for Long-Haul LCCs: Will those leisure travelers who still want to fly be prepared to commit to Recovery From COVID-19 long-haul trips? In the Asia-Pacific region, which > NORWEGIAN PLANS TO RESTART SOME TRANSATLANTIC has led the way in development of ROUTES IN DECEMBER long-haul LCCs, the business model has yet to prove it can be sustainably > AIRASIA X IS IN HIBERNATION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE profitable. One Asian long-haul LCC, NokScoot, a joint venture between Helen Massy-Beresford Paris and Adrian Schofield Auckland Scoot and Thai carrier Nok Air, which operated Boeing 777-200s from Bang- or long-haul low-cost carriers, a As the world of air travel begins to kok to China, India, Japan and Taiwan, subset of the airline industry that open up after a months-long shutdown, already has been liquidated. Falways has had its doubters, the short-haul routes are leading the way, The pioneer of this model in the re- COVID-19 crisis and the profound ways leaving a tougher challenge for carri- gion, AirAsia X, is seeking to raise the in which it could affect future consum- ers reliant on long-haul operations. financing needed to survive. It suspend- er behavior may bring the final straw. In one way, LCCs are luckier than ed scheduled services in March and As the big names in low-cost long- their legacy counterparts: They rely says it expects “to remain in hiberna- haul travel suffer serious difficulties, on leisure travel, which is driving the tion mode,” with no timeline to return to the enduring doubts about the sus- paltry amount of passenger demand. service. AirAsia X has been operating tainability of long-haul low-cost car- Airline executives and industry “a handful of aircraft” on nonscheduled riers (LCC) have come into focus even watchers alike agree business-travel cargo and repatriation flights. But its more sharply. demand will take longer to return. prospects for resuming scheduled op- “IATA numbers suggest that it will But even that advantage is not erations will depend on recovery of de- be 2024 before we’re back to previous straightforward. Leisure travelers al- mand and easing of border restrictions. In Europe, Norwegian Air Shuttle initially predicted its fleet would re- Norwegian’s move to restart main largely grounded until April 2021, operations in December is seen as risky. but it has scheduled some transatlantic flights for December. Before the pan- demic, the carrier was facing financial difficulties after its rapid expansion left it stretched too thin, but it had begun to make progress on a restructuring plan. Now, like other airlines, Norwe- gian will be forced to focus on surviving the difficult months of a fledgling re- covery, with rising operating costs and no guarantee that revenues will follow. Strickland voices doubts about Nor- wegian’s latest plan, which involves JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET restarting several transatlantic routes normal,” says Patrick Edmond, man- ways have been price-sensitive, and to this winter. “I’m skeptical as to whether aging director of Altair Advisory, re- convince them to book tickets will be a it will happen as stated,” he says. “There ferring to the International Air Trans- big challenge amid ongoing uncertain- will be greater uncertainty for people port Association’s latest prediction for ty about the evolution of the virus and who might ordinarily be thinking about overall air travel demand. rapidly changing travel restrictions, Christmas travel plans, and it’s a short- “We’re now looking at a sustained not to mention economic gloom. lived peak in the weak winter season. downturn, and I think that’s going to “Ticket price will be an important Winter is not the time to be restarting affect long-haul more than it will af- element of getting people back to with significant long-haul capacity.” fect short-haul. The low-cost long-haul traveling; but to offer low fares prof- There may be some specific routes model was never as obviously superior itably, modern, efficient aircraft are and populations for which the long-haul as the low-cost short-haul model,” Ed- required,” Strickland says. Although LCC model still makes sense—such as mond says. “I think in a post-COVID lease rates may fall, the likes of Boe- Vistara and SpiceJet’s move to secure world, low-cost long-haul has an even ing 787s or Airbus A350s will still be slots at London’s Heathrow Airport, bigger question mark.” more expensive than less efficient signaling a plan to serve UK-India John Strickland, director of aviation aircraft, he notes. routes once travel restrictions ease— consultancy JLS Consulting, agrees. “Aircraft type will be important, but they will remain exceptions. “Yes, there is demand for long-haul and narrowbody operators stand a “I don’t see any durable reemer- travel at good prices,” he says. “But much better chance than widebody gence of low-cost long-haul before the challenge is doing it profitably, and operators due to smaller capacity, we get past the current COVID sit- that was not being achieved sustain- meaning not only lower costs but also uation—for example with a vaccine,” ably even in the good times.” lower risk,” Strickland explains. Edmond says. c

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

The Challenge for Long-Haul LCCs: Will those leisure travelers who still In the U.S., Regional Carriers Are much better in the private capital mar- want to fly be prepared to commit to kets either; with fleets of mostly leased Recovery From COVID-19 long-haul trips? Hardest Hit by Pandemic Downturn or subleased aircraft, they generally In the Asia-Pacific region, which have a smaller share of unencumbered > NORWEGIAN PLANS TO RESTART SOME TRANSATLANTIC has led the way in development of EXPRESSJET IS LIKELY TO BE THE FOURTH U.S. TO assets to raise money against. long-haul LCCs, the business model > While the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, ROUTES IN DECEMBER GO UNDER IN 2020 has yet to prove it can be sustainably and Economic Security (CARES) > AIRASIA X IS IN HIBERNATION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE profitable. One Asian long-haul LCC, > MESA, SKYWEST IN STRONG POSITIONS DESPITE INDUSTRY TURMOIL Act’s $25 billion Payroll Support NokScoot, a joint venture between Program (PSP) provided a tempo - Helen Massy-Beresford Paris and Adrian Schofield Auckland Scoot and Thai carrier Nok Air, which Ben Goldstein Washington rary lifeline to the industry by fund- operated Boeing 777-200s from Bang- ing payrolls during the second and or long-haul low-cost carriers, a As the world of air travel begins to kok to China, India, Japan and Taiwan, n the U.S., major airlines have suc- In a sense, American regionals third quarters of 2020, regional car- subset of the airline industry that open up after a months-long shutdown, already has been liquidated. cessfully removed near-term bank- have been hit twice by the pandemic; riers say the Treasury Department’s Falways has had its doubters, the short-haul routes are leading the way, The pioneer of this model in the re- Iruptcy risk from the table, helped by not only do they have to contend with one-size-fits-all approach to admin- COVID-19 crisis and the profound ways leaving a tougher challenge for carri- gion, AirAsia X, is seeking to raise the massive infusions of public and private depressed demand, but they are also istering the law was out of line with in which it could affect future consum- ers reliant on long-haul operations. financing needed to survive. It suspend- funding. The same cannot be said for directly affected by decisions made up- their financial reality. ExpressJet, er behavior may bring the final straw. In one way, LCCs are luckier than ed scheduled services in March and their regional affiliates. stream by their distressed major air- for example, was required to repay As the big names in low-cost long- their legacy counterparts: They rely says it expects “to remain in hiberna- Of the four U.S. carriers to per - line partners. Compass and ExpressJet 30% of the aid it received—the same haul travel suffer serious difficulties, on leisure travel, which is driving the tion mode,” with no timeline to return to manently cease operations since the were both casualties of regional-fleet terms as the country’s largest legacy the enduring doubts about the sus- paltry amount of passenger demand. service. AirAsia X has been operating COVID-19 pandemic swept across streamlining efforts at Air Lines airlines—despite its small footprint tainability of long-haul low-cost car- Airline executives and industry “a handful of aircraft” on nonscheduled North America in mid-March, three and United, respectively. Neither car- and inability to raise cash. riers (LCC) have come into focus even watchers alike agree business-travel cargo and repatriation flights. But its of them—Compass Airlines, RavnAir rier had a diversified flying portfolio, Like other struggling regionals, more sharply. demand will take longer to return. prospects for resuming scheduled op- Group and Trans States Airlines— and with just one major airline partner ExpressJet has also been unable to “IATA numbers suggest that it will But even that advantage is not erations will depend on recovery of de- were regional carriers. ExpressJet each, the consolidation efforts effec- secure a CARES Act air carrier loan be 2024 before we’re back to previous straightforward. Leisure travelers al- mand and easing of border restrictions. Airlines looks set to be next, after tively grounded both airlines. despite months of effort, largely due to In Europe, Norwegian Air Shuttle decided late last month Regionals also can count on fewer the Treasury Department’s refusal to initially predicted its fleet would re- to consolidate its 50-seat short-haul available financing options, further re- budge on stiff collateral requirements Norwegian’s move to restart main largely grounded until April 2021, operations with CommutAir. Should stricting their room to maneuver. Be- that most regionals are unable to meet. operations in December is seen as risky. but it has scheduled some transatlantic ExpressJet fail, it would be the larg- cause most are privately held, they are To make matters worse, smaller carri- flights for December. Before the pan- est U.S. carrier so far to go under as a unable to tap public capital markets to ers with loan requests below $300 mil- demic, the carrier was facing financial direct result of the crisis. issue debt and equity. They do not fare lion have been explicitly directed out difficulties after its rapid expansion left it stretched too thin, but it had begun to make progress on a restructuring plan. Now, like other airlines, Norwe- gian will be forced to focus on surviving IBAGLI/WIKIMEDIA the difficult months of a fledgling re- covery, with rising operating costs and no guarantee that revenues will follow. Strickland voices doubts about Nor- wegian’s latest plan, which involves JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET restarting several transatlantic routes normal,” says Patrick Edmond, man- ways have been price-sensitive, and to this winter. “I’m skeptical as to whether aging director of Altair Advisory, re- convince them to book tickets will be a it will happen as stated,” he says. “There ferring to the International Air Trans- big challenge amid ongoing uncertain- will be greater uncertainty for people port Association’s latest prediction for ty about the evolution of the virus and who might ordinarily be thinking about overall air travel demand. rapidly changing travel restrictions, Christmas travel plans, and it’s a short- “We’re now looking at a sustained not to mention economic gloom. lived peak in the weak winter season. downturn, and I think that’s going to “Ticket price will be an important Winter is not the time to be restarting affect long-haul more than it will af- element of getting people back to with significant long-haul capacity.” fect short-haul. The low-cost long-haul traveling; but to offer low fares prof- There may be some specific routes model was never as obviously superior itably, modern, efficient aircraft are and populations for which the long-haul as the low-cost short-haul model,” Ed- required,” Strickland says. Although LCC model still makes sense—such as mond says. “I think in a post-COVID lease rates may fall, the likes of Boe- Vistara and SpiceJet’s move to secure world, low-cost long-haul has an even ing 787s or Airbus A350s will still be slots at London’s Heathrow Airport, bigger question mark.” more expensive than less efficient signaling a plan to serve UK-India John Strickland, director of aviation aircraft, he notes. routes once travel restrictions ease— (pictured flying as United Express) was the only consultancy JLS Consulting, agrees. “Aircraft type will be important, but they will remain exceptions. U.S. carrier to report a net profit in the second quarter of 2020. “Yes, there is demand for long-haul and narrowbody operators stand a “I don’t see any durable reemer- travel at good prices,” he says. “But much better chance than widebody gence of low-cost long-haul before the challenge is doing it profitably, and operators due to smaller capacity, we get past the current COVID sit- that was not being achieved sustain- meaning not only lower costs but also uation—for example with a vaccine,” ably even in the good times.” lower risk,” Strickland explains. Edmond says. c

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 27 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

of the program by the department, in- structed to return only after being de- nied by an alternate lending program that most will not qualify for. “Treasury cites the need to protect the taxpayer in this decision,” Region- al Airline Association (RAA) Presi- dent and CEO Faye Malarkey Black says. “Ironically, the taxpayer is at high risk if regional airline service to small communities collapse.” Still, major carriers’ regional con- solidations—and the ensuing airline failures—have left some of the sec- tor’s strongest players in an enviable position. Take SkyWest Airlines, the country’s largest regional airline, which United’s decision to consolidate its 50-seat regional recorded the best pretax margins of flying with CommutAir effectively grounded ExpressJet the country’s 10 biggest airlines, ac- (pictured in United Express livery). cording to data from Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Linenberg. SkyWest has since found itself in a superior

REDLEGSFAN21/WIKIMEDIA

many cases,” access to the agency’s COVID-19 Slows the Progress of the William J. Hughes Technical Center outside Atlantic City, New Jersey, is FAA’s NextGen Programs limited and some system upgrades have been stopped, FAA Administra- BILL CAREY/AW&ST INFECTIONS AFFECT MORE THAN 130 ATC FACILITIES tor Steve Dickson told the advisory > committee of aviation operations and > THE NEXTGEN IMPLEMENTATION PLAN HAS BEEN REVISED technical executives. Separately, the FAA said the Tech Bill Carey Washington Center and the Mike Monroney Aero- nautical Center in Oklahoma City, he novel coronavirus crisis has to airline ramp towers and a parking which hosts the agency’s ATC acade- slowed the FAA’s 17-year march garage to direct pilots. The agency my and other training, “have remained Ttoward airspace modernization. scaled back the operating hours at 100 operational to support mission-critical During an online meeting of the towers and organized controller work activities” during the pandemic. NextGen Advisory Committee (NAC) groups that stayed together during Briefers informed the NAC that the on Aug. 6, FAA leaders affirmed what the duty week to reduce the risk of NextGen Terminal Flight Data Man- came as no surprise—the precautions spreading the virus. ager (TFDM) program that aims to taken to prevent the spread of the Nevertheless, the novel coronavirus improve the efficiency of surface oper- coronavirus that causes COVID-19 proliferated. An FAA-updated website ations by integrating electronic flight will delay programs underpinning that lists ATC “facilities affected” by data in airport towers has been delayed. the NextGen (ATC) confirmed COVID-19 cases or suspected The TFDM program “has been modernization effort dating to 2003. exposure to the disease counted 35 fa- greatly impacted by the inability to Even against the backdrop of dra- cilities in early April, 50 in June, more travel and access the facilities, which matically reduced aircraft move - than 80 in July and 133 as of Aug. 17. includes the Tech Center and the ments, the FAA has been challenged “I assure you that we have used ev- [ATC] academy,” said NAC work group just to maintain daily ATC operations ery bit of our operational engineering leader Robert Goldman, of Delta Air since the first coronavirus infections and program expertise to innovate Lines. “TFDM Build 1 IOC [initial appeared in the tower at Chicago Mid- and adapt our way in an effort to operational capability] in Phoenix is way International Airport (MDW) on prevent and mitigate delays” to the postponed until 2021, and the other March 17, causing a seven-day closure NextGen portfolio of programs, FAA milestones contingent upon that are all as the facility was cleaned. Deputy Administrator Daniel Elwell [to be determined].” As infections spread across towers, told the NAC. “Unfortunately, a grow- The FAA’s Data Communications terminal radar approach control and ing number of our FAA and industry program to roll out text messaging en route facilities, the FAA activated programs are now showing delays, between controllers and pilots—which contingency plans to shift air traffic some into 2022.” was running ahead of schedule after services to adjacent facilities. In some Travel by agency personnel “is ex- equipping 62 airport towers—now is cases, controllers temporarily relocated tremely limited and nonexistent in paused after deployment to the Indi-

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION of the program by the department, in- financial position to its major airline to avoid involuntarily laying off any al carriers at risk of failing in the structed to return only after being de- partners (, Delta employees this year. months ahead. nied by an alternate lending program and United) and has extended a va- To be sure, the relatively strong per- “ExpressJet is not the canary in that most will not qualify for. riety of concessions to help them get formance of Mesa and SkyWest does the coal mine,” Black says. “Without “Treasury cites the need to protect through the downturn, such as defer- not accurately reflect the challenges intervention, this will be the fourth the taxpayer in this decision,” Region- ral of certain payments and waiving facing the sector’s less prominent regional airline to fail.” al Airline Association (RAA) Presi- contract minimums. players. Both companies are publicly Given that regional airlines drove dent and CEO Faye Malarkey Black Mesa Airlines has also fared well owned and have substantially more an estimated $134 billion in econom- says. “Ironically, the taxpayer is at during the pandemic, and can even financing options available than their ic activity last year alone, along with high risk if regional airline service to boast of being the sole publicly owned peers. They also operate large fleets of $36 billion in local wages and tax reve- small communities collapse.” U.S. carrier to report a net profit in the dual-class jets in the 70-76-seat range, nues, according to the RAA, providing Still, major carriers’ regional con- second quarter of 2020. The Phoenix- which are currently in higher demand them extra support may ultimately be solidations—and the ensuing airline based airline is set to begin taking de- from major airlines than smaller, 50- a better bargain for taxpayers than failures—have left some of the sec- livery of 20 new Embraer 175s from seat regional jets. And with more di- risking additional loss of air service tor’s strongest players in an enviable United starting in September and versified flying portfolios, the loss of a to small communities. position. Take SkyWest Airlines, the even signed a five-year contract with major airline customer would not be “Lawmakers may feel a sense of country’s largest regional airline, which DHL to operate two Boeing 737-400F the fatal blow for either carrier that it security in that their air service has United’s decision to consolidate its 50-seat regional recorded the best pretax margins of freighters beginning in October. In was for Compass or ExpressJet. not collapsed presently, but those cir- flying with CommutAir effectively grounded ExpressJet the country’s 10 biggest airlines, ac- contrast to its two legacy airline part- The RAA has aggressively lobbied cumstances may change dramatically (pictured in United Express livery). cording to data from Deutsche Bank ners (American and United), Mesa’s for a six-month extension of the PSP, when the supports and requirements analyst Mike Linenberg. SkyWest management believes the company is warning that failure to renew the aid associated with the CARES act ex- has since found itself in a superior in a strong enough financial position program will put additional region- pire,” Black says. c

REDLEGSFAN21/WIKIMEDIA many cases,” access to the agency’s thority of New York and New Jersey. COVID-19 Slows the Progress of the William J. Hughes Technical Center “Most notably, the [redesign of] At- outside Atlantic City, New Jersey, is lantic Coast routes will be delayed for FAA’s NextGen Programs limited and some system upgrades over a year. This project was set to have been stopped, FAA Administra- BILL CAREY/AW&ST make large-scale changes to the INFECTIONS AFFECT MORE THAN 130 ATC FACILITIES tor Steve Dickson told the advisory high-altitude route structure along > committee of aviation operations and the eastern U.S., from the southeast > THE NEXTGEN IMPLEMENTATION PLAN HAS BEEN REVISED technical executives. to New England, connecting the Separately, the FAA said the Tech routes already implemented in Flor- Bill Carey Washington Center and the Mike Monroney Aero- ida,” he explained. nautical Center in Oklahoma City, Progress on NextGen has not com- he novel coronavirus crisis has to airline ramp towers and a parking which hosts the agency’s ATC acade- pletely slowed. Activities such as soft- slowed the FAA’s 17-year march garage to direct pilots. The agency my and other training, “have remained ware development by vendors, virtual Ttoward airspace modernization. scaled back the operating hours at 100 operational to support mission-critical training and planning meetings are During an online meeting of the towers and organized controller work activities” during the pandemic. ongoing, FAA executives said. NextGen Advisory Committee (NAC) groups that stayed together during Briefers informed the NAC that the “We have not stopped doing Next- on Aug. 6, FAA leaders affirmed what the duty week to reduce the risk of NextGen Terminal Flight Data Man- Gen work,” said Teri Bristol, chief came as no surprise—the precautions spreading the virus. ager (TFDM) program that aims to operating officer of the FAA Air taken to prevent the spread of the Nevertheless, the novel coronavirus improve the efficiency of surface oper- Traffic Organization. “The only work coronavirus that causes COVID-19 proliferated. An FAA-updated website ations by integrating electronic flight The FAA’s NextGen branding was on display at a recent that we have stopped doing is put- will delay programs underpinning that lists ATC “facilities affected” by data in airport towers has been delayed. Air Traffic Control Association conference. ting folks in the facilities right now the NextGen air traffic control (ATC) confirmed COVID-19 cases or suspected The TFDM program “has been to actually deploy equipment or to modernization effort dating to 2003. exposure to the disease counted 35 fa- greatly impacted by the inability to bring new systems online. With re - Even against the backdrop of dra- cilities in early April, 50 in June, more travel and access the facilities, which anapolis, Kansas City and Washington on hold due to COVID,” Wijntjes added. spect to our major acquisitions, that matically reduced aircraft move - than 80 in July and 133 as of Aug. 17. includes the Tech Center and the air route traffic control centers, the “But we are ready to go as soon as we work is still going on, the vendors ments, the FAA has been challenged “I assure you that we have used ev- [ATC] academy,” said NAC work group first three “key” sites of 20 planned. are allowed back into the facilities.” are developing software; all of that just to maintain daily ATC operations ery bit of our operational engineering leader Robert Goldman, of Delta Air The FAA lists the Washington center Also delayed are projects planned is still happening.” since the first coronavirus infections and program expertise to innovate Lines. “TFDM Build 1 IOC [initial in Leesburg, Virginia, as beginning full under the NAC-initiated Northeast Nevertheless, the FAA has revised appeared in the tower at Chicago Mid- and adapt our way in an effort to operational capability] in Phoenix is operation on March 24. Corridor initiative to improve air traf- the schedule milestones contained in way International Airport (MDW) on prevent and mitigate delays” to the postponed until 2021, and the other “We have a product in the field fic flow and reduce flight delays in the its annually updated NextGen Imple- March 17, causing a seven-day closure NextGen portfolio of programs, FAA milestones contingent upon that are all right now that is exceeding all perfor- region between Boston and Washing- mentation Plan (NGIP), Elwell said. as the facility was cleaned. Deputy Administrator Daniel Elwell [to be determined].” mance targets,” said Jesse Wijntjes, ton, the nation’s most congested for “What you will see in the 2020 NGIP As infections spread across towers, told the NAC. “Unfortunately, a grow- The FAA’s Data Communications FAA Data Comm program manager. air travel. update is a list of successes, a list of terminal radar approach control and ing number of our FAA and industry program to roll out text messaging “We have the best-performing air- “Unfortunately, due to COVID-19 milestone changes and in some cases en route facilities, the FAA activated programs are now showing delays, between controllers and pilots—which to-ground data link capability any- and other impacts, we will see signif- TBDs until we can determine an ef- contingency plans to shift air traffic some into 2022.” was running ahead of schedule after where in the world by a wide margin icant delays in the implementation fective [completion] date,” Elwell said. services to adjacent facilities. In some Travel by agency personnel “is ex- equipping 62 airport towers—now is at those three facilities. milestones in 2020,” said Ralph “We decided to publish the update with cases, controllers temporarily relocated tremely limited and nonexistent in paused after deployment to the Indi- “The balance of the deployment is Tamburro, representing the Port Au- the best information that we have.” c

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 29 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

U.S. Agencies Take Early Steps To Install Counter-Drone Systems

> SYSTEMS TESTING BEGINS AT NEW JERSEY AIRPORT > FAA SURVEYS MARKET FOR ENGINE-INGESTION TEST

Bill Carey Washington airports. The agency has designated A DJI quadcopter operated with a n the midst of the COVID-19 pan- Atlantic City International Airport in the background. demic, the FAA and other U.S. (KACY) in New Jersey, which hosts Iagencies have taken steps toward the FAA Technical Center, as the first erated reliable and accurate data, and addressing a challenge to aviation site; it will issue a separate solicitation warrants further evaluation in another that predates the contagion: the risk to choose four other airports. operational setting. ‘Graduation’ is not of disruption to airport operations The FAA expects to deploy the first guaranteed,” the FAA notice states. by drone. C-UAS technology at KACY as early Ultimately, Congress intended that The FAA has also initiated a mar- as January and install systems at oth- the FAA develop processes for certi- ket survey of companies that may be er airports in late 2021. The objective fying and authorizing C-UAS installa- interested in helping the agency un- at KACY, a base, is to tions at airports, making them eligible derstand what happens when a large protect an air operations area (AOA) for Airport Improvement Program ingests a small drone. of 3.6 mi.2 with systems extending grants. The 2018 legislation also re- On Aug. 21, the FAA published a 5 mi. from the AOA center point. quired the agency to charter an avia- call for white papers from vendors Following what is expected to be a tion rulemaking committee to assist in interested in supplying counter- 60-day evaluation period during which developing standards; the FAA says it unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS) the technologies will be tested against has not yet created that group. for evaluation at airports, a project a variety of drones in various weather In the call for white papers, the that Congress required in 2018 FAA conditions, a system may then “gradu- agency emphasizes that it will not compare or rank C-UAS systems Electro-optical and thermal from the selected vendors, nor will cameras installed at an Operational it develop a list of approved vendors Solutions facility in the UK. based on the evaluation. It will require vendors to install their systems, train FAA personnel to use them “and then depart the site.” The FAA’s notice followed the Aug. 17 release of an interagency ad- visory that provides airports consider- ing C-UAS deployments with an over- view of potentially applicable federal laws and regulations. The FAA in May 2019 sent a similar letter with updated guidance to 3,321 commercial, reliever and airports listed in its National Plan of Integrated Airport OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS LTD. OPERATIONAL Systems. In that letter, the agency said reauthorization legislation. The agen- ate” to field testing at another airport it “cannot confirm the legality” of us- cy plans to evaluate at least 10 C-UAS over 14 months. ing C-UAS technologies. systems designed to detect and track “Transition from KACY to the one The Federal Communications Com- drones in flight and/or “mitigate”—or additional airport will be based on the mission (FCC) and Justice and Home- disable—them from threatening a successful ‘graduation’ of any select- land Security departments joined civil airport. ed offeror’s technology/system from the FAA in issuing the interagency The congressional language re - KACY, meaning that the technology/ advisory, which offers a similar con- quires the FAA to test systems at five system performed as advertised, gen- clusion. The advisory “essentially

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

tells you to speak to your counsel’s ty and Standards, said at the FAA ruption “is predicate on the intent,” U.S. Agencies Take Early Steps office,” Elizabeth Soltys, UAS secu- UAS Symposium. for example, the Justice Department rity advisor to the FAA deputy asso- Dermody acknowledged that some would manage a terrorism threat, To Install Counter-Drone Systems ciate administrator of security and U.S. airports have already deployed said Soltys. The Pentagon might send hazardous materials safety, said Aug. C-UAS systems, but he declined C-UAS systems and train Justice or > SYSTEMS TESTING BEGINS AT NEW JERSEY AIRPORT 19 during the annual FAA UAS Sym- to say which ones. Four years ago, Homeland Security personnel on their posium, held virtually because of the the FAA and other agencies tested use, but it is prevented from operating > FAA SURVEYS MARKET FOR ENGINE-INGESTION TEST COVID-19 pandemic. counter-drone technologies at KACY, the systems by the Posse Comitatus Congress thus far has authorized New York’s John F. Kennedy and the Act, which limits using the military to only the Justice, Homeland Security, Denver and Dallas-Fort Worth inter- enforce domestic laws. Energy and Defense departments to national airports. The Transportation Soltys made the point that other

FREQUENTIS/HENSOLDT use C-UAS systems under certain Security Administration, a branch tools are available in the drone-deter- conditions to protect “covered facili- of Homeland Security, has estab - rence toolbox short of deploying a ties or assets,” the advisory instructs. lished a drone- detection testbed at C-UAS system. The FAA since Decem- The guidance differentiates be - Miami International Airport, accord- ber 2015 has required the owners of tween detection systems that detect ing to the American Association of drones weighing more than 250 grams and track drones using fre - Airport Executives. to register online, providing authori- quency (RF), radar, electro-optical Secrecy attends much of what is be- ties with a way to trace back custody Bill Carey Washington airports. The agency has designated A DJI quadcopter operated with a (EO), infrared (IR) or acoustic sen- ing done in the field with C-UAS. Last to an errant or malicious operator. n the midst of the COVID-19 pan- Atlantic City International Airport Boeing 747 in the background. sors and mitigation systems that dis- The agency has committed to pub- demic, the FAA and other U.S. (KACY) in New Jersey, which hosts able a drone by kinetic or nonkinet- lishing a “Remote ID” final regulation Iagencies have taken steps toward the FAA Technical Center, as the first erated reliable and accurate data, and ic means. A kinetic system may use by year-end that will require drones addressing a challenge to aviation site; it will issue a separate solicitation warrants further evaluation in another nets, projectiles or lasers to down a to signal their identity and position to that predates the contagion: the risk to choose four other airports. operational setting. ‘Graduation’ is not tracked aircraft. A nonkinetic sys- the ground. Drone manufacturers will of disruption to airport operations The FAA expects to deploy the first guaranteed,” the FAA notice states. tem disrupts the control of a drone likely have two years to comply after by drone. C-UAS technology at KACY as early Ultimately, Congress intended that by RF, Wi-Fi or GPS jamming, spoof- the rule’s effective date. The FAA has also initiated a mar- as January and install systems at oth- the FAA develop processes for certi- ing or hacking, or nondestructive, For now, the agency is treading ket survey of companies that may be er airports in late 2021. The objective fying and authorizing C-UAS installa- directed- energy weapons. carefully on C-UAS. “Does the FAA interested in helping the agency un- at KACY, a Spirit Airlines base, is to tions at airports, making them eligible Whether a detection or tracking agree with the expansion of mitigation derstand what happens when a large protect an air operations area (AOA) for Airport Improvement Program system involves federal criminal laws capabilities and some detection capa- jet engine ingests a small drone. of 3.6 mi.2 with systems extending grants. The 2018 legislation also re- relating to surveillance—the advisory bilities? The answer is: No, we don’t On Aug. 21, the FAA published a 5 mi. from the AOA center point. quired the agency to charter an avia- calls out the Pen/Trap Statute and the right now,” said Soltys. “There is a lot call for white papers from vendors Following what is expected to be a tion rulemaking committee to assist in Wiretap Act—depends on whether it of testing that needs to happen, and interested in supplying counter- 60-day evaluation period during which developing standards; the FAA says it captures, records, decodes or inter- Components of IAI Elta Systems’ [systems need] to be safely deployed.” unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS) the technologies will be tested against has not yet created that group. cepts electronic communications be- Drone Guard C-UAS system. Also advancing slowly but delib - for evaluation at airports, a project a variety of drones in various weather In the call for white papers, the tween a drone and its controller, the erately is engine research. Congress that Congress required in 2018 FAA conditions, a system may then “gradu- agency emphasizes that it will not agencies advise. Radar, acoustic sen- IAI ELTA SYSTEMS mandated testing of engine-ingestion compare or rank C-UAS systems sors or EO/IR systems that emit elec- October, the White House National of drones in 2016 FAA reauthorization Electro-optical and thermal from the selected vendors, nor will tromagnetic waves or pulses of sound Security Council quietly approved a legislation and reiterated the request cameras installed at an Operational it develop a list of approved vendors or light to detect an object based on concept of operations (conops) that last September, the agency says. The describes a federal response to stop- latest request “aligns with FAA’s read- Solutions facility in the UK. based on the evaluation. It will require reflected signals “are less likely to vendors to install their systems, train pose concerns under federal criminal ping a drone disruption at one of the iness to conduct the final research FAA personnel to use them “and then surveillance statutes,” but must com- U.S. Core 30 airports—those that phase,” involving a live engine, states depart the site.” ply with FAA and FCC regulations serve major metropolitan areas with an Aug. 21 call for information. The FAA’s notice followed the governing aviation and RF spectrum. the highest volume of air traffic. The testing aims to provide data Aug. 17 release of an interagency ad- Mitigation systems could run afoul According to Soltys, the White from the actual ingestion of a market- visory that provides airports consider- of federal criminal prohibitions against House wanted to prepare the nation’s representative small drone into a com- ing C-UAS deployments with an over- intercepting communications, dam- airports to fend off the type of drone mercial airline mid-to-high-bypass gas view of potentially applicable federal aging an aircraft or damaging a “pro- disruption that forced London’s turbofan engine with a diameter of ap- laws and regulations. The FAA in May tected computer” used in interstate Gatwick Airport to close twice be - proximately 62 in., about the size of a 2019 sent a similar letter with updated commerce. Jamming, spoofing and tween Dec. 19 and Dec. 21, 2018, caus- CFM56 turbofan on a Boeing 737NG. guidance to 3,321 commercial, reliever hacking specifically call into question ing 1,000 flight cancellations. The Alliance for System Safety of and general aviation airports listed in the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act Once the Justice and Homeland UAS through Research Excellence its National Plan of Integrated Airport and laws prohibiting interference with Security departments received con- (Assure), a consortium of universities OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS LTD. OPERATIONAL Systems. In that letter, the agency said the operation of a satellite and the de- gressional authorization to use C-UAS that serves as the FAA’s center of ex- reauthorization legislation. The agen- ate” to field testing at another airport it “cannot confirm the legality” of us- struction of communications lines. systems in the U.S., it became evident cellence for drones, released a study cy plans to evaluate at least 10 C-UAS over 14 months. ing C-UAS technologies. There is a process available for that they did not have the equipment on midair collisions of manned and systems designed to detect and track “Transition from KACY to the one The Federal Communications Com- installing an approved C-UAS sys- to respond to all airports, Soltys said. unmanned aircraft in November 2017. drones in flight and/or “mitigate”—or additional airport will be based on the mission (FCC) and Justice and Home- tem, similar to submitting an FAA The Pentagon offered to supply military The research concluded that disable—them from threatening a successful ‘graduation’ of any select- land Security departments joined Form 7460-1 Notice of Proposed Con- systems “should there be an egregious drones made of rigid materials can civil airport. ed offeror’s technology/system from the FAA in issuing the interagency struction or Alternation for agen - situation” at one of the Core 30 airports. cause more structural damage to a The congressional language re - KACY, meaning that the technology/ advisory, which offers a similar con- cy review, John Dermody, director Under the conops, the lead feder- large manned aircraft in a collision quires the FAA to test systems at five system performed as advertised, gen- clusion. The advisory “essentially of the FAA Office of Airport Safe - al agency responding to a drone dis- than birds of the same weight. c

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 31 ROTORCRAFT

be tailored to the mission require- ment, test pilot Christian Corry says. Family Affair Both machines can fly like a heli- copter at speeds of up to 150-160 kt. SIKORSKY S-97 RAIDER FLIGHTS REDUCING RISK FOR FARA BID using conventional collective and cy- > clic control, Fell says. But when the > SIKORSKY BOEING SB-1 DEFIANT IS POISED FOR A RUN tail-mounted propeller is engaged to AT HIGH-SPEED GOAL provide propulsion, the coaxial rotors become rotating wings, Corry says, Graham Warwick Washington and collective pitch is automated to maximize lift and minimize drag at n late July, two sleek rotorcraft technology during the intervening high speed. raced together over the cypress decades, Sikorsky simplifi ed the con- Airspeed is controlled through the Iwetlands of southern Florida, the cept to produce the X2: a single-seat, prop pitch, using the throttle, and fl ight pair exceeding 180 kt. as the Sikorsky single-engine rotorcraft with fl y-by- control relies on rudders and elevators S-97 Raider and Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 wire fl ight control, composite blades on the tail. “It’s more of an airplane Defiant high-speed helicopters flew and airframe as well as active vibra- than a helicopter,” Corry says. Unlike together for the fi rst time. tion control. The X2 demonstrator a conventional helicopter, whose nose The fl ight over Sikorsky’s West Palm fl ew in 2008. must be pointed down or pulled up, the Beach development fl ight center was In 2010, after the X2 reached 250 kt., propulsor enables level-attitude accel- staged for U.S. Army acquisition chief Sikorsky launched an industry-funded eration and deceleration. Bruce Jette. The Raider and Defi ant program to build two S-97 Raider light Reversing prop pitch “is like throw- are competing for two of the Army’s tactical helicopter prototypes using the ing a parachute out there,” Fell says. top modernization priorities: the Fu- confi guration. Aircraft 1 fl ew in May “It acts like a big brake.” This proce- ture Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft 2015 and logged about 20 hr. before dure is used routinely to maximize test (FARA) and Future Long-Range As- su¡ ering damage during a hard land- time. Fell describes approaching the sault Aircraft (FLRAA), respectively. ing caused by a fl ight-control software airfi eld in the Defi ant at 180 kt., then For Sikorsky, now a Lockheed Mar- fl aw. Aircraft 2 has now logged almost reversing the prop and slowing rapidly tin company, the formation fl ight held 69 hr., reaching a maximum speed of while the nose stayed pointed down added signifi cance because it came al- 207 kt. and angle of bank of 60 deg. at the landing zone. “I was able to see most 10 years after its company-funded Flight testing of the S-97 is now everything the entire time during the X2 technology demonstrator had set dedicated to optimizing Sikorsky’s an uno” cial for helicop- Raider X design for FARA, focused on ters of 250 kt. in level fl ight. Both the tweaks to minimize drag at high speed. The Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 De ant Raider and Defi ant use the X2 coax- “Those fl ight hours mean someone had demonstrator made a low pass ial rigid-rotor compound helicopter a question,” says Jay Macklin, Sikorsky over the West Palm Beach confi guration. director of Future Vertical Lift (FVL) development  ight center. Together, the X2, Raider and Defi ant business development. And while the demonstrators represent a $1 billion S-97 is fl ying, Sikorsky is making prog- investment by Sikorsky and its indus- ress with the Raider X prototype. “The try partners, now targeted squarely at build is on,” he says. winning the FARA and FLRAA. The Defi ant, meanwhile, has logged In 2005, fl ush with cash from pro- 20 hr. of fl ying since taking to the air ducing H-60-series helicopters for the for the fi rst time in March 2019 and has U.S. military and export customers, exceeded 200 kt. and a 30-deg. angle Sikorsky launched the X2 program. of bank. Whereas the single-engine Looking to guarantee its future with Raider was designed for 220 kt., the a new generation of helicopters, the twin-turboshaft Defi ant is designed for company studied a wide range of de- 230 kt. but with a speed goal “closer to signs, including tiltrotors, before de- 250 kt.,” says Bill Fell, Sikorsky’s chief ciding to revisit the coaxial rigid-rotor test pilot. A fl ight to achieve that speed compound confi guration it pioneered goal is imminent, the team indicates. with the XH-59A Advancing Blade Sikorsky and FLRAA teammate Concept demonstrator. Boeing emphasize that both the First fl own in 1973, the XH-59A was Raider and Defiant combine high fast, reaching a maximum level speed speed and maneuverability with the of 238 kt. But it was complex, with low-speed agility of a conventional high fuel consumption, noise and vi- helicopter. There are differences, bration. Operating the four engines— however. The Raider and Defiant two turboshafts for the rotors and two have no tail rotor; instead, di¡ eren- for propulsion—required a tial torque on the coaxial rotors is two-person crew. used to turn at low speed. The yaw Taking advantage of advances in rates generated are the same and can SIORSY OEIN

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ROTORCRAFT Bell Emphasizes Flight-Test Experience be tailored to the mission require- approach, which you cannot do in a ment, test pilot Christian Corry says. helicopter,” he says. IF THE COMPETITIONS BECOME ABOUT DESIGN MATURITY, BELL IS CONFIDENT Family Affair Both machines can fly like a heli- On the formation demo, the two ro- its contenders for the U.S. Army’s Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft and copter at speeds of up to 150-160 kt. torcraft stopped in about the same Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft have the chops to win. SIKORSKY S-97 RAIDER FLIGHTS REDUCING RISK FOR FARA BID using conventional collective and cy- distance, despite the Defi ant’s larger The Bell V-280 Valor demonstrator for the FLRAA has logged almost 180 > clic control, Fell says. But when the size, notes Randy Rotte, Boeing direc- fl ight hours since its fi rst fl ight in December 2017, and four Army pilots have now SIKORSKY BOEING SB-1 DEFIANT IS POISED FOR A RUN tail-mounted propeller is engaged to tor of global sales and marketing for > fl own the advanced tiltrotor, Bell says. “There is no ground-testing substitute for AT HIGH-SPEED GOAL provide propulsion, the coaxial rotors FVL, cargo and utility. The Defi ant so become rotating wings, Corry says, far is cleared to use only half the neg- expanding the envelope in actual fl ight,” the company adds. Graham Warwick Washington and collective pitch is automated to ative prop-pitch range, Fell adds. Once The V-280 has reached speeds in excess of 300 kt. and demonstrated hover- maximize lift and minimize drag at the full range is cleared, “we will see out-of-ground effect in 6,000-ft., 95F conditions as well as low-speed agility, n late July, two sleek rotorcraft technology during the intervening high speed. much more rapid deceleration,” he says. meeting the Army’s Level 1 handling qualities requirements, Bell says. Testing raced together over the cypress decades, Sikorsky simplifi ed the con- Airspeed is controlled through the And whereas a tail rotor is required continues under Phase 2 of the Army’s Joint Multi-Role demo. wetlands of southern Florida, the cept to produce the X2: a single-seat, prop pitch, using the throttle, and fl ight for control throughout the fl ight en- I Parts for the Bell 360 Invictus prototype for the FARA are being released for pair exceeding 180 kt. as the Sikorsky single-engine rotorcraft with fl y-by- control relies on rudders and elevators velope of a conventional helicopter, S-97 Raider and Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 wire fl ight control, composite blades on the tail. “It’s more of an airplane on the Defiant—as on the Raider— manufacture. Aircraft production will begin in Amarillo, Texas, in October. The Defiant high-speed helicopters flew and airframe as well as active vibra- than a helicopter,” Corry says. Unlike the propulsor can be disengaged, fi rst fl ight is planned for November 2022, with Army testing scheduled to begin together for the fi rst time. tion control. The X2 demonstrator a conventional helicopter, whose nose reducing the acoustic signature and in the summer of 2023 at Redstone Arsenal near Huntsville, Alabama. The fl ight over Sikorsky’s West Palm fl ew in 2008. must be pointed down or pulled up, the improving survivability. With a single main rotor and a speed target of at least 185 kt., the 360 is Beach development fl ight center was In 2010, after the X2 reached 250 kt., propulsor enables level-attitude accel- High speed, not hover, drives the an all-new design, but its four-blade, fully articulated rotor system is based on staged for U.S. Army acquisition chief Sikorsky launched an industry-funded eration and deceleration. power requirement in both aircraft. “high-speed-capable” technology developed for the com- Bruce Jette. The Raider and Defi ant program to build two S-97 Raider light Reversing prop pitch “is like throw- Powered by two 4,000-shp-class Hon- mercial helicopter, the company emphasizes. are competing for two of the Army’s tactical helicopter prototypes using the ing a parachute out there,” Fell says. eywell T55s, the Defi ant is “loafi ng” at top modernization priorities: the Fu- confi guration. Aircraft 1 fl ew in May “It acts like a big brake.” This proce- 180 kt. on less than 50% power, Fell Four 525 test aircraft have accumulated more than 1,600 fl ight hours and ture Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft 2015 and logged about 20 hr. before dure is used routinely to maximize test says. “At the weights we are flying, 2,200 hr. of rotor turn time, the manufacturer says. c (FARA) and Future Long-Range As- su¡ ering damage during a hard land- time. Fell describes approaching the we have hover power on one engine. sault Aircraft (FLRAA), respectively. ing caused by a fl ight-control software airfi eld in the Defi ant at 180 kt., then That means contingency and high -hot For Sikorsky, now a Lockheed Mar- fl aw. Aircraft 2 has now logged almost reversing the prop and slowing rapidly capability,” he adds. competing FARA prototypes will both output over time. “Counter-rotating tin company, the formation fl ight held 69 hr., reaching a maximum speed of while the nose stayed pointed down Even the single-engine Raider has be powered by the 3,000-shp-class rigid versus fully articulated [rotor] added signifi cance because it came al- 207 kt. and angle of bank of 60 deg. at the landing zone. “I was able to see “excess power you don’t see in a con- General Electric T901, a new engine provides growth potential,” Macklin most 10 years after its company-funded Flight testing of the S-97 is now everything the entire time during the ventional helicopter,” Corry says. The that is expected to increase in power says. “We can add power to the engine, X2 technology demonstrator had set dedicated to optimizing Sikorsky’s and the design can take it.” an uno” cial speed record for helicop- Raider X design for FARA, focused on The coaxial rigid rotors also pro- ters of 250 kt. in level fl ight. Both the tweaks to minimize drag at high speed. The Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 De ant vide high control responsiveness. The Raider and Defi ant use the X2 coax- “Those fl ight hours mean someone had demonstrator made a low pass 30,000-lb. Defi ant “fl ies like a 20,000- ial rigid-rotor compound helicopter a question,” says Jay Macklin, Sikorsky over the West Palm Beach lb. machine,” Fell says. “The crisp confi guration. director of Future Vertical Lift (FVL) development  ight center. response from the rotors shrinks the Together, the X2, Raider and Defi ant business development. And while the machine.” The 11,000-lb. Raider “is demonstrators represent a $1 billion S-97 is fl ying, Sikorsky is making prog- more compact. It has that small, agile investment by Sikorsky and its indus- ress with the Raider X prototype. “The feel.” But both rotorcraft “fl y the try partners, now targeted squarely at build is on,” he says. same” despite the diœ erence in size. winning the FARA and FLRAA. The Defi ant, meanwhile, has logged “It is the entire integrated weapon In 2005, fl ush with cash from pro- 20 hr. of fl ying since taking to the air system that creates survivability, but ducing H-60-series helicopters for the for the fi rst time in March 2019 and has it starts with the speed, maneuverabil- U.S. military and export customers, exceeded 200 kt. and a 30-deg. angle ity and agility of the aircraft,” Macklin Sikorsky launched the X2 program. of bank. Whereas the single-engine says. “It’s the packaging that provides Looking to guarantee its future with Raider was designed for 220 kt., the the transformational capability,” Rotte a new generation of helicopters, the twin-turboshaft Defi ant is designed for notes. “It fundamentally changes the company studied a wide range of de- 230 kt. but with a speed goal “closer to way you can fi ght—range, speed and signs, including tiltrotors, before de- 250 kt.,” says Bill Fell, Sikorsky’s chief maneuverability translate into surviv- ciding to revisit the coaxial rigid-rotor test pilot. A fl ight to achieve that speed ability in a contested environment.” compound confi guration it pioneered goal is imminent, the team indicates. Sikorsky and Boeing are locked in with the XH-59A Advancing Blade Sikorsky and FLRAA teammate competition with Bell for the FARA Concept demonstrator. Boeing emphasize that both the and FLRAA that will play out over First fl own in 1973, the XH-59A was Raider and Defiant combine high the next three years. But for Sikorsky, fast, reaching a maximum level speed speed and maneuverability with the more than a decade after betting its of 238 kt. But it was complex, with low-speed agility of a conventional future on the X2 confi guration, fl ying high fuel consumption, noise and vi- helicopter. There are differences, the Raider and Defi ant together was a bration. Operating the four engines— however. The Raider and Defiant milestone—and a glimpse of how the two turboshafts for the rotors and two have no tail rotor; instead, di¡ eren- Army could use them together in mul- turbojets for propulsion—required a tial torque on the coaxial rotors is tidomain operations. “Seeing them in two-person crew. used to turn at low speed. The yaw formation seemed like a natural evo- Taking advantage of advances in rates generated are the same and can lution,” Macklin says. c SIORSY OEIN

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 33 UNMANNED AVIATION Self-Flying Feeder > XWING AUTOMATES CARAVAN TO TRANSFORM EXPRESS LOGISTICS > DETECT-AND-AVOID SYSTEM ENABLES COLLISION AVOIDANCE > DIGITAL AUTOPILOT EQUIPS CARAVAN FOR UNMANNED OPERATION

Graham Warwick Washington digital flight control system (FCS). avoidance maneuvers to the pilot, Autoflight can fly the aircraft autono- where the pilot has the choice to use emand for “middle-mile” mously from takeoff to landing and in- them or not,” Gariel says. “And then, express logistics driven by cludes automatic collision avoidance. once we have enough data, we can Dgrowth in e-commerce is fer- Automated taxiing and braking will work with the FAA to certify it and be tile ground for startups looking to be added this summer, says Maxime able to remove the pilot.” transform the economics of regional Gariel, chief technology officer. The company is targeting the re- air cargo through innovations rang- The startup plans to obtain FAA gional cargo market, in which FedEx ing from electric propulsion to un- supplemental type certification Express alone operates more than manned aircraft. (STC) to use the DAA system in pi- 300 Caravans in the U.S. Converting San Francisco-based Xwing has loted operations, following up with the utility turboprop to an optionally targeted the Cessna 208B Grand Car- certification for the FCS and finally piloted vehicle will allow a remote pilot avan—the aircraft most associated for the fully coupled system enabling on the ground to manage more than with that market—and set out to re- autonomous operations. one aircraft, increasing operator utili- duce its operating costs and increase “We’re taking a pragmatic ap - zation by a factor of three and reduc- its utilization by taking out the pilot. proach,” Gariel says. “Our goal is to ing costs by 20-30%, Xwing calculates. The startup is testing a Caravan mod- bring the minimum amount of tech- Both aircraft and pilots in region- ified for autonomous flight and plans nology to this aircraft to be able to al cargo feeder operations suffer low to begin a piloted regional cargo oper- integrate into the airspace. It’s not utilization, flying once in the morning ation as a step toward introducing an about what will be in 10 years —it’s and again in the evening, CEO Marc unmanned air logistics service. what can we have in six months, in a Piette says. “By moving to ground Since December, the company has year or in two years.” operators, we can tackle the operator completed more than 70 autonomous The startup is already working with utilization issue—a single operator for flights from takeoff to landing with the Bell, and its DAA system will fly on the three aircraft per day—even if we at converted Caravan. Xwing has also ac- rotorcraft manufacturer’s APT 70 cargo first only allow one aircraft in flight quired a Part 135 operator and plans drone this year under a NASA proj- per operator,” he says. to begin cargo flights, initially piloted, ect to demonstrate unmanned aircraft Xwing expects to substantially to collect the data needed to certify integration with the national airspace reduce fuel costs, too, by flying the the modified aircraft. system. But the Caravan modification aircraft more precisely at its peak The Caravan has been retrofitted will be its first commercial product. operating efficiency points on opti- with Xwing’s Autoflight system, which Xwing’s approach is to “begin com- mized trajectories. Also, a Caravan comprises a multisensor detect-and- mercial operations with a DAA system stripped of the systems required for avoid (DAA) system coupled to a new flying, collecting data and proposing pilots will carry more payload, and

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST UNMANNED AVIATION

The DAA system has two clusters the touch screen to look for tra c be- Self-Flying Feeder of sensors mounted where the struts hind the aircraft and outside camera Detect-and-avoid sensors are meet the wing on the Caravan. Each range. A top-down view at the bottom has two visual cameras, a ra- of the display shows ownship position, > XWING AUTOMATES CARAVAN TO TRANSFORM EXPRESS LOGISTICS mounted at the top of the wing struts on either side. dar and a lidar as well as either an current fl ightpath, alert contours and > DETECT-AND-AVOID SYSTEM ENABLES COLLISION AVOIDANCE infrared camera on the left wing or a safe-maneuvering track bands. Xwing long-range camera on the right wing. is using a 2,000-ft. avoidance distance > DIGITAL AUTOPILOT EQUIPS CARAVAN FOR UNMANNED OPERATION Together, they provide a +/-110-deg. based on industry consensus stan- fi eld of view in azimuth. dards to trigger maneuvers. While ADS-B data is used to iden- “We are taking this pragmatic ap- tify transponder-equipped aircraft, proach,” Gariel says. “It’s a mix of radar allows the system to detect ADS-B and radar for the certifi able initial system. And the vision system is flying at the same time and col- lecting data so that we can use the traditional sensors to train the sys- Camera imagery is over- tem. We don’t rely yet on the vision laid with terrain data, system, but that will be coming in the  ight symbology and future to lower the cost and improve target tracks. the reliability.” “Part of the reason we start com- mercial operations with pilots on board is it enables us to do a light- weight STC to add sensors on these commercial aircraft and start collect- ing data from a DAA perspective in order to be able to certify those sys- tems more easily,” Piette says. “We’re going to be collecting a ton of data IN HOTOS using these piloted operations over Graham Warwick Washington digital flight control system (FCS). avoidance maneuvers to the pilot, operations will be freed from tradi- and track noncooperative targets. the next 12 months.” Autoflight can fly the aircraft autono- where the pilot has the choice to use tional geographic constraints on pilot The cameras are used to validate Xwing has developed the proto- emand for “middle-mile” mously from takeoff to landing and in- them or not,” Gariel says. “And then, rest times, Piette says. ADS-B and radar targets as well as type system using o‹ -the-shelf com- express logistics driven by cludes automatic collision avoidance. once we have enough data, we can The detect-and-avoid system fus- to augment GPS during approach, ponents so it can focus its resources Dgrowth in e-commerce is fer- Automated taxiing and braking will work with the FAA to certify it and be es data from automatic dependent landing and taxiing. Lidar provides on rapidly developing the software. tile ground for startups looking to be added this summer, says Maxime able to remove the pilot.” surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B), on- ground-obstacle detection. But it is now working with aero- transform the economics of regional Gariel, chief technology officer. The company is targeting the re- board radar, camera and lidar sen- Camera imagery is presented to the space supplier partners to develop air cargo through innovations rang- The startup plans to obtain FAA gional cargo market, in which FedEx sors as well as a digital terrain data- remote operator, or to the pilot in the the certifiable DAA and FCS hard- ing from electric propulsion to un- supplemental type certification Express alone operates more than base to provide situational awareness aircraft, on a display that is overlaid ware along with the associated data manned aircraft. (STC) to use the DAA system in pi- 300 Caravans in the U.S. Converting in the air and on the ground. When with terrain information, headup dis- links and ground station. The startup San Francisco-based Xwing has loted operations, following up with the utility turboprop to an optionally coupled to the full-authority digital play symbology and track data from completed a Series A funding round targeted the Cessna 208B Grand Car- certification for the FCS and finally piloted vehicle will allow a remote pilot autopilot, the system provides auto- the ADS-B and radar. The 3D display this year and has so far raised about avan—the aircraft most associated for the fully coupled system enabling on the ground to manage more than mated collision avoidance. can be rotated through 360 deg. using $14 million, Piette says. c with that market—and set out to re- autonomous operations. one aircraft, increasing operator utili- duce its operating costs and increase “We’re taking a pragmatic ap - zation by a factor of three and reduc- its utilization by taking out the pilot. proach,” Gariel says. “Our goal is to ing costs by 20-30%, Xwing calculates. The startup is testing a Caravan mod- bring the minimum amount of tech- Both aircraft and pilots in region- ified for autonomous flight and plans nology to this aircraft to be able to al cargo feeder operations suffer low to begin a piloted regional cargo oper- integrate into the airspace. It’s not utilization, flying once in the morning ation as a step toward introducing an about what will be in 10 years —it’s and again in the evening, CEO Marc unmanned air logistics service. what can we have in six months, in a Piette says. “By moving to ground Since December, the company has year or in two years.” operators, we can tackle the operator Xwing’s modi ed Grand Caravan completed more than 70 autonomous The startup is already working with utilization issue—a single operator for made an autonomous landing flights from takeoff to landing with the Bell, and its DAA system will fly on the three aircraft per day—even if we at near San Francisco. converted Caravan. Xwing has also ac- rotorcraft manufacturer’s APT 70 cargo first only allow one aircraft in flight quired a Part 135 operator and plans drone this year under a NASA proj- per operator,” he says. to begin cargo flights, initially piloted, ect to demonstrate unmanned aircraft Xwing expects to substantially to collect the data needed to certify integration with the national airspace reduce fuel costs, too, by flying the the modified aircraft. system. But the Caravan modification aircraft more precisely at its peak The Caravan has been retrofitted will be its first commercial product. operating efficiency points on opti- with Xwing’s Autoflight system, which Xwing’s approach is to “begin com- mized trajectories. Also, a Caravan comprises a multisensor detect-and- mercial operations with a DAA system stripped of the systems required for avoid (DAA) system coupled to a new flying, collecting data and proposing pilots will carry more payload, and

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 3 DEFENSE > U.S. hypersonic work revealed p. 38 Hypersonic glide vehicle factory p. 40 Weapons for Russia’s Altius UAV p. 41 Su-57 production nears p. 43 BLURRED LINES Army has depended solely on Air Force COMPETITION FOR U.S. LONG-RANGE STRIKE surveillance and striking power to hit > any target more than 185 mi. away. MISSION HEATS UP That division of responsibilities was partly intended to establish USAF PUSHES BACK ON “DUPLICATIVE” SPENDING clear lines of authority for weapons > release on a dynamic battlefield to minimize the chances of a friendly Steve Trimble Washington fire incident. The other services also appeared content to focus their lim- ong-range strike as a sector of U.S. military investment ited fiscal resources on other areas has not been so popular since perhaps Gen. Curtis LeMay’s while the Air Force shouldered the financial burden for maintaining the Strategic Air Command reigned supreme over the Air long-range strike mission. Force in the 1950s. Whether in terms of missiles—hyper- A year after the Trump admin- L istration withdrew from the INF sonic, supersonic or subsonic—or a new platform such as the Treaty, in 2019, the old division of re- stand-in Northrop Grumman B-21 or reengining of the standoff sponsibilities among the services for Boeing B-52H, the Air Force has multiple, overlapping develop- long-range strike is eroding. As the ment programs in progress. Defense Department prepares the fiscal 2022 budget request amid new For the first time, however, the pop- the now-defunct Intermediate-Range resource constraints, some senior ularity of the long-range conventional Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 1987, U.S. military officials are calling for strike mission is no longer reserved which led to the retirement of the Ar- dissolving those lines altogether. The for the Air Force. Since the signing of my’s Pershing II missile system, the goal would not be merely to free ser- On April 30, Lockheed Martin staged the second test of the Precision- Strike Missile. Upon fielding in 2023, it will become the Army’s longest-range strike option since the retirement of the Pershing II missile in the late-1980s. vices besides the Air Force to invest in long-range strike capabilities but to impose new requirements that would make the Army, Navy and Marines as capable as the Air Force in the long- range strike mission. The new approach is championed by senior leaders, including Gen. John Hyten, a veteran Air Force officer who is vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The transition to a new warfight- ing doctrine—initially defined by the Army—called multi-domain operations (MDO) fundamentally changes how each of the services must approach the long-range strike mission, Hyten says. “We have a joint doctrine now that says we establish the forward edge of the battle area, the fire support coordi- nation line, the forward line of troops,”

LOCKHEED MARTIN Hyten said during a videoconference

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE > U.S. hypersonic work revealed p. 38 Hypersonic glide vehicle factory p. 40 Weapons for Russia’s Altius UAV p. 41 Su-57 production nears p. 43

hosted by the Hudson Institute on Aug. 12. “We say Army can operate here. The Air Force can operate here. . . . Naval forces can go here. Allies can go here.” The MDO doctrine changes that

paradigm. Automated systems now in AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY development under the Joint All- BLURRED LINES Domain Command and Control Army has depended solely on Air Force (JADC2) concept will assign targets to COMPETITION FOR U.S. LONG-RANGE STRIKE surveillance and striking power to hit any “shooter” on the battlefield, not > any target more than 185 mi. away. just the Air Force’s long-range strike MISSION HEATS UP That division of responsibilities platforms and weapons. In theory, a was partly intended to establish target detected by satellite hundreds USAF PUSHES BACK ON “DUPLICATIVE” SPENDING clear lines of authority for weapons of miles deep into enemy territory > release on a dynamic battlefield to could be assigned to a new Army artil- marks in April. “We bring up the A Cargo Launch Expendable Air minimize the chances of a friendly lery system such as the 300-mi.-range long-range fires . . . and I know [the Vehicle with Extended Range pallet Pentagon] and certainly the [Cost Steve Trimble Washington fire incident. The other services also Precision-Strike Missile (PrSM) or the deployed from an MC-130 in a appeared content to focus their lim- Navy’s hypersonic Intermediate-Range Assessment and Program Evalua- ong-range strike as a sector of U.S. military investment ited fiscal resources on other areas Conventional Prompt Strike weapon. tion office] are looking at this. If the January , demonstrating a has not been so popular since perhaps Gen. Curtis LeMay’s while the Air Force shouldered the “Everything [now] is about lines,” Air Force can do something in long- possible new role for airlifters as financial burden for maintaining the Hyten says. “But in the future, those range strike, maybe one of the other an “arsenal plane” loaded with long- Strategic Air Command reigned supreme over the Air long-range strike mission. lines are eliminated, which means an services doesn’t have to do it. range standoff missiles. Force in the 1950s. Whether in terms of missiles—hyper- A year after the Trump admin- army capability can have on its own “All of us investing in a single area, L istration withdrew from the INF platform the ability to defend itself or just in a slightly different way, is just target acquisition. The Multi-Domain sonic, supersonic or subsonic—or a new platform such as the Treaty, in 2019, the old division of re- strike deep into an adversary area of not going to be affordable, especially Sensor System (MDSS) program seeks stand-in Northrop Grumman B-21 or reengining of the standoff sponsibilities among the services for operations. A naval force can defend if those flat budgets actually become to deploy by 2028 a new, Army-funded Boeing B-52H, the Air Force has multiple, overlapping develop- long-range strike is eroding. As the itself or strike deep. The Air Force less than flat,” added Nahom, the Air fleet of manned and unmanned sur- ment programs in progress. Defense Department prepares the can defend itself and strike deep. Force’s deputy chief of staff for plans veillance aircraft. In fact, the Army fiscal 2022 budget request amid new The Marines can defend themselves and programs. deployed the Airborne Reconnaissance For the first time, however, the pop- the now-defunct Intermediate-Range resource constraints, some senior or strike deep.” The leadership of the Army, how- and Targeting Multi- Mission Intelli- ularity of the long-range conventional Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 1987, U.S. military officials are calling for Such a vision implies significant ever, believes long-range strike has gence System (), a chartered strike mission is no longer reserved which led to the retirement of the Ar- dissolving those lines altogether. The new investments by the Army, Navy become a core mission set. Since the Bombardier Challenger 650 equipped for the Air Force. Since the signing of my’s Pershing II missile system, the goal would not be merely to free ser- and Marines in long-range fires and INF Treaty-imposed retirement of the with a suite of intelligence sensors, in perhaps by the Air Force in new Pershing II in the late 1980s, the Ar- July to Okinawa. The Artemis deploy- On April 30, Lockheed Martin staged ground-based defensive systems. At my’s weapon with the longest range has ment’s objective is to test concepts of the second test of the Precision- the same time, the Air Force is seeking been the MGM-140 Army Tactical Mis- operation for the most advanced ele- Strike Missile. Upon fielding in to expand future B-21 production; the sile System, with a range of up 185 mi. ment of the MDSS: a business-jet-class 2023, it will become the Army’s service’s leadership is now openly dis- While the INF Treaty was still in effect, airborne intelligence, surveillance and longest-range strike option since cussing a need for up to 240 aircraft the Army publicly listed the objective reconnaissance aircraft that would instead of the original plan to buy 80- range of PrSM at no more than 310 mi., perform a mission similar to the Air the retirement of the Pershing II 100 new . The Air Force also or 0.6 mi. short of the threshold banned Force’s E-8C Joint STARS, which is missile in the late-1980s. is developing concepts for a new, non- under the treaty. Since the treaty ex- scheduled for retirement by 2025. vices besides the Air Force to invest stealthy “arsenal plane,” which could pired in August 2019, the Army reset Brig. Gen. John Rafferty, the Army’s in long-range strike capabilities but to increase capacity for long-range strike the minimum range of PrSM to 311 mi., cross-functional team leader for long- impose new requirements that would with standoff munitions. with future plans to extend the weapon range fires, spoke last year about his make the Army, Navy and Marines as But budgets are growing tighter. system to about 500 mi. service’s motivation to spend billions of capable as the Air Force in the long- For the first time since 2015, the Pen- But the Army’s interests in long- dollars on a mission area that had once range strike mission. tagon requested less overall funding in range fires go beyond the PrSM pro- belonged to the Air Force, saying that The new approach is championed by fiscal 2021 than the year before. Most gram. The Strategic Long-Range Com- aircraft such as bombers and fighters senior leaders, including Gen. John expert forecasts predicted flat defense mand seeks to field a new capability by are too vulnerable against a peer ad- Hyten, a veteran Air Force officer who budgets beyond fiscal 2021 before the 2025 that can fire an artillery shell at versary equipped with integrated air is vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, targets more than 1,150 mi. away. Even defense systems. The Army needs the Staff. The transition to a new warfight- which depressed the economy and sooner, the Army hopes to field the ability to lob surface-to-surface mis- ing doctrine—initially defined by the triggered trillions of dollars in new Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon, fea- siles or artillery hundreds or thou- Army—called multi-domain operations spending for relief. If budgets remain turing a -boosted glide body, by sands of miles downrange, he says. (MDO) fundamentally changes how flat or decline, some Air Force officials 2023. The Defense Department also is And his position has not changed. each of the services must approach the say they would call for less “duplica- working on a new, intermediate-range “I’m convinced that across the joint long-range strike mission, Hyten says. tive” spending by other services on ballistic missile but has not confirmed force, we all recognize that enough “We have a joint doctrine now that the long-range strike mission. the fielding schedule. targets are out there for all of us,” Raf- says we establish the forward edge of “I do think that we as a [Defense In addition to developing long-range ferty said during a Heritage Founda- the battle area, the fire support coordi- Department] and the Air Force have striking power, the Army is aiming to tion videoconference on Aug. 24. “And nation line, the forward line of troops,” to look at duplicative activities,” said reduce dependence on the Air Force we’re going to have to figure out how c LOCKHEED MARTIN Hyten said during a videoconference Lt. Gen. David Nahom, in public re- for reconnaissance, surveillance and to sort this out.”

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 37 DEFENSE

USAF Errantly Reveals Research on strike targets with conventional war- heads at intermediate range, defined ICBM-Range Hypersonic Glide Vehicle as 1,500-3,000 nm by The Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and AIR FORCE REMOVED DOCUMENT FROM PUBLIC WEBSITE Associated Terms. > But the Pentagon has no acknowl- > PENTAGON REMAINS COMMITTED TO NON-NUCLEAR ROLE edged plan to develop an HGV with a FOR HYPERSONICS range beyond 3,000 nm and maintains a policy that “strictly” prohibits arm- Steve Trimble Washington ing any such weapon—regardless of range—with nuclear warheads. The he U.S. Air Force agency that support [a] hypersonic glide to ICBM two most senior staffers leading the manages the service’s nuclear ranges,” according to the RFI, which hypersonic weapons portfolio reiter- Tarsenal has started research is no longer publicly available on the ated that policy during a press con- on enabling technology for an inter- government’s procurement website. ference on March 2. continental-range, hypersonic glide The RFI may have disclosed infor- “Our entire hypersonic portfolio vehicle, according to a document mation that the Air Force’s nuclear is based on delivering conventional that was briefly published in error on weapons buyers had not intended to warheads,” said Mike White, assis- a public website. be made public. tant director of defense research and Although the document shows that Each of the seven items listed in the engineering for hypersonic weapons. a U.S. nuclear weapons agency is re- RFI’s “scope of effort” for ICBM up- “Right,” agreed Mark Lewis, the di- searching hypersonic glide vehicle grades included a prefix designation rector of defense research and engi- neering for modernization programs. “Strictly conventional.” The Pentagon has not changed the policy since March 2, said Lt. Col. U.S. AIR FORCE Robert Carver, a spokesman for Lewis’ office. “[The Defense Department] is not developing nuclear-capable hyper- sonic weapons,” Carver wrote in an email. “There are common technology needs between the nuclear enterprise and hypersonic systems. Particularly in the area of high-temperature mate- rials, we typically collaborate on the A February test of an unarmed development of advanced dual-use materials technology. I will reiterate Minuteman III ICBM yielded a fiery that our entire hypersonic program rocket plume extending into the clouds. portfolio continues to be based on delivering conventional effects only.” The threshold requirements for the (HGV) technology, senior Defense of “U/FOUO,” a military marking initial version of GBSD entering ser- Department officials say there has for information that is unclassified vice in 2030 do not include an HGV been no change to a policy that but for official use only. Although not for the reentry system, said Lt. Gen. “strictly” limits the emerging class of technically a classified secret, infor- Richard Clark, the Air Force’s deputy hypersonic gliders and cruise missiles mation marked as “FOUO” is usually chief of staff for strategic deterrence to non-nuclear warheads. withheld from the general public. The and nuclear integration. However, A request for information (RFI) RFI was removed from Beta.sam.gov Clark, who spoke during an Aug. 19 published on Aug. 12 by the Air Force on Aug. 17 after Aviation Week in- webinar hosted by the Mitchell In- Nuclear Weapons Center asks com- quired about the document with the stitute, noted the GBSD is designed panies to submit ideas across seven Air Force and the Office of the Secre- with a flexible architecture, allowing categories of potential upgrades for tary of Defense. future variants to add new capabili- ICBMs designed with a “modular The Defense Department has three ties easily. open architecture.” The Air Force different operational prototypes for “GBSD does have an open architec- often describes the future Ground- HGVs in development now: the Air ture,” Clark said. “It gives us an ability Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) Force’s AGM-183A Air-Launched to incorporate ICBM as featuring a “modular sys- Rapid Response Weapon, the Army’s or technologies we need to counter tems architecture,” in contrast to the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon and whatever threats we face in the fu- aging Minuteman III, which does not. the Navy’s Intermediate-Range Con- ture. If we decide down the road that Among the seven items on the up- ventional Prompt Strike. Once fired there’s a particular technology that grade list, the Air Force called for a new from an aircraft, a ground-launcher or needs to be incorporated, we will be “thermal protection system that can submarine, all three are designed to able to do that.”

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

USAF Errantly Reveals Research on strike targets with conventional war- Although the Pentagon upholds the ICBM. In February, the head of U.S. Air Force’s plans for the new ICBM heads at intermediate range, defined conventional-only policy for hyper- Northern Command, Gen. Terrence developed under the GBSD program. ICBM-Range Hypersonic Glide Vehicle as 1,500-3,000 nm by The Department sonic gliders and -powered O’Shaughnessy, said in written tes- Apart from the thermal protec- of Defense Dictionary of Military and cruise missiles, the source of the RFI timony submitted to Congress that tion system for a hypersonic , AIR FORCE REMOVED DOCUMENT FROM PUBLIC WEBSITE Associated Terms. raises questions, says James Acton, “China is testing a [nuclear-armed] the scope of effort in the RFI sought > But the Pentagon has no acknowl- co-director of the Nuclear Policy Pro- intercontinental-range hypersonic industry input on a variety of topics, > PENTAGON REMAINS COMMITTED TO NON-NUCLEAR ROLE edged plan to develop an HGV with a gram at the Carnegie Endowment for glide vehicle, which is designed to including the following: FOR HYPERSONICS range beyond 3,000 nm and maintains International Peace. fly at high speeds and low altitudes, ■ Fusing data from lower-fidelity on- a policy that “strictly” prohibits arm- “The fact that [this RFI] is coming complicating our ability to provide board sensors to improve guidance, Steve Trimble Washington ing any such weapon—regardless of from the Nuclear Weapons Center, it precise warning.” navigation and control; range—with nuclear warheads. The makes it sound an awful lot like this The Pentagon has never had an an- ■ New navigation aids to correct in- he U.S. Air Force agency that support [a] hypersonic glide to ICBM two most senior staffers leading the would at least be nuclear-armed or nounced weapons-development pro- ertial measurement unit drift on long- manages the service’s nuclear ranges,” according to the RFI, which hypersonic weapons portfolio reiter- conceivably dual-capable,” Acton says. gram for a conventional- or nuclear- time-of-flight missions; Tarsenal has started research is no longer publicly available on the ated that policy during a press con- Although the RFI confirms research armed intercontinental-range HGV ■ A lighter, smaller and more efficient on enabling technology for an inter- government’s procurement website. ference on March 2. is underway, the Defense Department but has experimented with air- “future fuze” that also could “accept continental-range, hypersonic glide The RFI may have disclosed infor- “Our entire hypersonic portfolio still has no acknowledged plans to launched gliders. DARPA’s Hyperson- inputs from external subsystems”; vehicle, according to a document mation that the Air Force’s nuclear is based on delivering conventional proceed from basic research into the ic Test Vehicle 2 program attempted; ■ Radiation hardening techniques for that was briefly published in error on weapons buyers had not intended to warheads,” said Mike White, assis- acquisition phase of an ICBM-range to demonstrate a range of 4,170 nm, advanced microelectronics such as a a public website. be made public. tant director of defense research and hypersonic glider, whether carrying but each experimental glider in two system on a chip or system in package; Although the document shows that Each of the seven items listed in the engineering for hypersonic weapons. a conventional or nuclear warhead. If tests staged in 2010 and 2011 failed ■ Improved computer hardware and a U.S. nuclear weapons agency is re- RFI’s “scope of effort” for ICBM up- “Right,” agreed Mark Lewis, the di- the thermal-protection system tech- about 9 min. into a planned 30-min. software including artificial intelli- searching hypersonic glide vehicle grades included a prefix designation rector of defense research and engi- nology is limited only to research, the hypersonic glide. gence algorithms; neering for modernization programs. RFI by the Air Force’s nuclear weap- The leading edges of an interconti- ■ A more secure architecture and bet- “Strictly conventional.” ons organization may not violate the nental-range HGV could be exposed ter security sensors for ICBM ground The Pentagon has not changed the Pentagon’s policy, which may apply to temperatures as high as 7,000K facilities. policy since March 2, said Lt. Col. (12,000F) on reentry, then endure a U.S. AIR FORCE only to fielded weapons. The Air Force plans to award the Robert Carver, a spokesman for “[The Defense Department] does prolonged glide phase compared with contract to Northrop Grumman by the Lewis’ office. a lot of research on a lot of different an intermediate-range system, says end of August to launch the engineer- “[The Defense Department] is not things, and the vast majority of these Christopher Combs, who researches ing and manufacturing development developing nuclear-capable hyper- programs never turn into an acquisi- hypersonic as an as- contract for GBSD. Northrop remained sonic weapons,” Carver wrote in an tion,” Acton says. “It could turn into sistant professor at the University of the sole bidder for the program to de- email. “There are common technology something, but sophisticated observ- Texas, San Antonio. liver more than 600 new ICBMs to the needs between the nuclear enterprise ers recognize that it may not.” “The bottom line is it’s just crazy Air Force after a Boeing-led team with- and hypersonic systems. Particularly The Pentagon’s conventional-only temperatures,” says Combs. “They’re drew from the competition last year. c in the area of high-temperature mate- policy for maneuvering hypersonic not dealing with or rials, we typically collaborate on the weapons stands apart from other Apollo [capsule] temperatures, but Check 6 Aviation Week editors A February test of an unarmed development of advanced dual-use countries in the field. Russia, for it’s still really hot.” discuss the new information revealed materials technology. I will reiterate example, has deployed the nuclear- The rescinded RFI, meanwhile, also about the U.S. hypersonics program: Minuteman III ICBM yielded a fiery that our entire hypersonic program armed Avangard HGV on the SS-19 may provide a rare glimpse into the AviationWeek.com/podcast rocket plume extending into the clouds. portfolio continues to be based on delivering conventional effects only.” The threshold requirements for the (HGV) technology, senior Defense of “U/FOUO,” a military marking initial version of GBSD entering ser- Department officials say there has for information that is unclassified vice in 2030 do not include an HGV been no change to a policy that but for official use only. Although not for the reentry system, said Lt. Gen. “strictly” limits the emerging class of technically a classified secret, infor- Richard Clark, the Air Force’s deputy hypersonic gliders and cruise missiles mation marked as “FOUO” is usually chief of staff for strategic deterrence to non-nuclear warheads. withheld from the general public. The and nuclear integration. However, Stay Informed. Stay Connected. Stay Engaged. A request for information (RFI) RFI was removed from Beta.sam.gov Clark, who spoke during an Aug. 19 published on Aug. 12 by the Air Force on Aug. 17 after Aviation Week in- webinar hosted by the Mitchell In- Access authoritative market insights and analysis along with company, program, fleet and contact databases covering the global aviation, Nuclear Weapons Center asks com- quired about the document with the stitute, noted the GBSD is designed aerospace and defense communities with an Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) Membership. panies to submit ideas across seven Air Force and the Office of the Secre- with a flexible architecture, allowing categories of potential upgrades for tary of Defense. future variants to add new capabili- ICBMs designed with a “modular The Defense Department has three ties easily. open architecture.” The Air Force different operational prototypes for “GBSD does have an open architec- often describes the future Ground- HGVs in development now: the Air ture,” Clark said. “It gives us an ability Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) Force’s AGM-183A Air-Launched to incorporate emerging technologies ICBM as featuring a “modular sys- Rapid Response Weapon, the Army’s or technologies we need to counter whatever threats we face in the fu- tems architecture,” in contrast to the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon and Become a member today. aging Minuteman III, which does not. the Navy’s Intermediate-Range Con- ture. If we decide down the road that Among the seven items on the up- ventional Prompt Strike. Once fired there’s a particular technology that Visit aviationweek.com/AWINinfo to schedule your demo. grade list, the Air Force called for a new from an aircraft, a ground-launcher or needs to be incorporated, we will be Or call Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 or Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 “thermal protection system that can submarine, all three are designed to able to do that.”

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 39 DEFENSE

New Factory Opening Launches a new 208,000-ft.2 Low-Bay Advanced Manufacturing Facility in 2021 on the Hypersonic Industrial Phase Skunk Works campus, which is also known as Site 10 within the Air Force’s DYNETICS FACILITY OPENS IN OCTOBER highly secretive Plant 42 complex. The > ARRW all-up round includes a small- > LOCKHEED AND AEROJET ALSO ADD PRODUCTION CAPACITY er-diameter, single-stage booster with an advanced high-lift-to-drag-ratio Steve Trimble London and Guy Norris Los Angeles HGV front end. By contrast, the Army has been far nother first in U.S. hyperson- On the heels of the first wave of more public about the industrial plans ic history will take place in HGV programs, the Air Force plans for the CHGB front ends for LRHW ANovember, but not in a wind to start developing another arsenal of and IRCPS. In August 2019, the Army tunnel nor during a flight test. As scramjet-powered hypersonic cruise awarded Dynetics a nearly $352 million military orders shift from minus- missiles. The Future Hypersonics Pro- contract to deliver the first 20 CHGBs, cule batches of experimental craft to gram seeks to develop a follow-on to which will support a series of LRHW mass-produced missiles, Huntsville, the Hyper sonic Air-Breathing Weap- and IRCPS flight tests starting in 2021. Alabama-based Dynetics will open the on Concept (HAWC), and the newly Assembly of the first glide body has begun in Albuquerque, New Mexico, the home of Sandia National Labo - ratories. The CHGB is a derivative of the Sandia-manufactured Advanced Hypersonic Weapon program, which itself was based on the Sandia Winged Energetic Reentry Vehicle. Dynetics

SGT. JAMES HARVEY/U.S. ARMY JAMES HARVEY/U.S. SGT. is technically the supplier for the first CHGB, but its workers are now shad- owing Sandia’s experienced team in Albuquerque. The Sandia team will then travel to Huntsville this fall, where they will shadow Dynetics staff as they assemble the second CHGB. “The glide body itself is a com- plicated beast,” says Paul Turner, Dynetics’ hypersonic program man- ager. “There are tolerances that are very tight in some locations.” To support the assembly of the sec- Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy on July 1 visited Dynetics’ new Common Hyper- ond CHGB, Dynetics plans to open the sonic Glide Body factory, which opens in October. production area in the new Huntsville facility as part of Phase 1 operations in first U.S. factory publicly assigned to revealed Mayhem program by the Air October, Turner says. After securing deliver hundreds—perhaps even thou- Force Research Laboratory seeks to de- a certificate of occupancy at a loca- sands—of hypersonic glide vehicles velop a demonstrator for an advanced tion adjacent to the former Mid-City (HGV) during the next several years. air-breathing propulsion system. Mall, Dynetics will be able to start The Defense Department’s $10 bil- In Huntsville, Dynetics will assem- moving heavy equipment, including lion plan to field at least three differ- ble the Common Hypersonic Glide test chambers, into the production ent HGV programs by 2025 has fueled Body (CHGB) for the Army’s ground- area. Phase 2 will open a high-bay rapid development of a new industry launched LRHW and the Navy’s IRCPS, area for final integration and testing, sector. The Air Force’s AGM-183A then ship the completed gliders to a which is scheduled to be completed in Air-Launched Rapid Response Weap- nearby Lockheed facility. Lockheed’s mid-December. on (ARRW) is scheduled to enter ser- workers will integrate the CHGB onto A network of suppliers will be feed- vice at the end of 2022, followed by a common two-stage, 34.5-in.-dia. ing subassemblies into the Dynetics the Army’s Long-Range Hypersonic missile. The ground-launched version production line. The Army will deliver Weapon (LRHW) in 2023 and the Na- will then be delivered to a new Army the critical thermal protection sys- vy’s Intermediate-Range Convention- artillery unit, and the Navy version tem, which is in development under al Prompt Strike (IRCPS) in 2025. As will be inserted into a special launch a separate contract. General Atomics the military’s chosen weapon system system in development for Virginia- Electromagnetic Systems is a subcon- integrator for all three programs, class submarines. tractor to Dynetics, producing “a cou- Lockheed Martin is the clear indus- The Air Force’s industrial plans ple of subassemblies” along with the trial leader of a nascent HGV market for the ARRW are less clear, but the cables for the glide body, Turner says. with two geographic centers: Hunts- city of Palmdale announced last De- is responsible ville and Palmdale, California. cember that Lockheed plans to open for delivering the control module for

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

New Factory Opening Launches a new 208,000-ft.2 Low-Bay Advanced the CHGB’s four elevon-based flight Much of the initial industrialization of Florida-based additive-manufactur- Manufacturing Facility in 2021 on the control surfaces. focus has been on expanding booster ing specialist 3D Material Technolo- Hypersonic Industrial Phase Skunk Works campus, which is also “We are building all of the other avi- production capability at sites such as gies (3DMT), which is designed to known as Site 10 within the Air Force’s onics components within our main the advanced manufacturing facility lower Aerojet Rocketdyne’s produc- DYNETICS FACILITY OPENS IN OCTOBER highly secretive Plant 42 complex. The campus area” in another area of (AMF) at Huntsville, which opened tion costs across its range of solid and > ARRW all-up round includes a small- Huntsville, Turner says. “Those will in 2019, and the follow-on engineer- liquid as well as . > LOCKHEED AND AEROJET ALSO ADD PRODUCTION CAPACITY er-diameter, single-stage booster with be delivered to the Mid-City area for ing, manufacturing and development Additive manufacturing is “ an advanced high-lift-to-drag-ratio final testing, integration and assembly (EMD) facility in Camden, Arkansas. to our solution,” Evans says. Steve Trimble London and Guy Norris Los Angeles HGV front end. into the glider. In order to be success- In addition to hypersonic work, the As the developer of the scramjet By contrast, the Army has been far ful, one company can’t do it all. We 136,000-ft.2 AMF is producing solid engine for the Air Force’s Boeing X-51 nother first in U.S. hyperson- On the heels of the first wave of more public about the industrial plans went through and figured out who has rocket motor cases and related hard- in the 2000s, Aerojet Rocketdyne ic history will take place in HGV programs, the Air Force plans for the CHGB front ends for LRHW the expertise in the right areas. And ware for Standard Missile-3, Terminal aims to capitalize on its experience ANovember, but not in a wind to start developing another arsenal of and IRCPS. In August 2019, the Army we are using that expertise and each High-Altitude Area Defense and the of being the first U.S. manufacturer tunnel nor during a flight test. As scramjet-powered hypersonic cruise awarded Dynetics a nearly $352 million other’s strengths to ensure that we Air Force’s next-generation Ground- of a serially produced air-breathing military orders shift from minus- missiles. The Future Hypersonics Pro- contract to deliver the first 20 CHGBs, deliver what we say we will.” Based Strategic Deterrent program hypersonic propulsion system. “The cule batches of experimental craft to gram seeks to develop a follow-on to which will support a series of LRHW Anticipating a huge surge in de - (GBSD). X-51 was a propulsion demonstrator mass-produced missiles, Huntsville, the Hyper sonic Air-Breathing Weap- and IRCPS flight tests starting in 2021. mand for hypersonic propulsion sys- Aerojet Rocketdyne says the Cam- that showed we could tame the sci- Alabama-based Dynetics will open the on Concept (HAWC), and the newly Assembly of the first glide body has tems, both boosted and air-breathing, den expansion builds on the compa- ence of supersonic combustion, and it begun in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Aerojet Rocketdyne is systematically ny’s decades-long history of solid rock- did that. And so, 10 years later, we’re the home of Sandia National Labo - expanding existing manufacturing et motor production at the site. “The focused on making scramjets practi- ratories. The CHGB is a derivative of sites and adding new capabilities EMD was specifically designed to cal, making them repeatable, making the Sandia-manufactured Advanced through growth and acquisition. serve as the developmental gateway to them affordable,” he adds. Hypersonic Weapon program, which “We’ve invested in the infrastruc- future large solid-rocket-motor prod- The 3DMT is a key element of the itself was based on the Sandia Winged ture and the capital to provide a uct opportunities, to include GBSD, plan, Evans says. “That’s really [based Energetic Reentry Vehicle. Dynetics broad range of capabilities to support hypersonics, missile defense targets on] having the tools and methods and

SGT. JAMES HARVEY/U.S. ARMY JAMES HARVEY/U.S. SGT. is technically the supplier for the first hypersonics in the areas of scramjets, and small launch vehicles,” it adds. the capabilities to repeat and afford- CHGB, but its workers are now shad- solid rocket motor boosters, war - But with the ramp-up in air-breath- ably produce what we demonstrated owing Sandia’s experienced team in heads and targets,” says Tyler Evans, ing hypersonic weapons and the be- 10 years ago. Additive manufacturing Albuquerque. The Sandia team will senior vice president of the compa- ginning of new acquisition programs gets talked about a lot out in aero - then travel to Huntsville this fall, where ny’s Defense Business Unit. “We’ve such as the Air Force’s recently dis- space and defense,” he adds. “Since they will shadow Dynetics staff as they co- located similar methods and man- closed scramjet-powered cruise mis- the X-51, as we’ve looked at the chal- assemble the second CHGB. ufacturing skills in order to leverage sile HAWC follow-on, the company is lenge of practicality, additive manu- “The glide body itself is a com- economies of scale, and we’ve created also growing new cost-cutting addi- facturing has really proved to be a dis- plicated beast,” says Paul Turner, computational tools that improve our tive-manufacturing capabilities. Lead- ruptive enabler of cost improvement Dynetics’ hypersonic program man- ability to repeat and develop incre - ing this drive was the 2019 acquisition and schedule improvement.” c ager. “There are tolerances that are mental improvement.” very tight in some locations.” Although many of the offensive To support the assembly of the sec- and defensive hypersonic efforts Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy on July 1 visited Dynetics’ new Common Hyper- ond CHGB, Dynetics plans to open the the company is currently involved Russia Reveals Weapons for Altius sonic Glide Body factory, which opens in October. production area in the new Huntsville in are still developmental in nature, facility as part of Phase 1 operations in they each provide the potential basis Unmanned Aircraft first U.S. factory publicly assigned to revealed Mayhem program by the Air October, Turner says. After securing for substantial follow-on operational deliver hundreds—perhaps even thou- Force Research Laboratory seeks to de- a certificate of occupancy at a loca- programs with high production vol- ALTIUS REMAINS FAR FROM OPERATIONAL READINESS sands—of hypersonic glide vehicles velop a demonstrator for an advanced tion adjacent to the former Mid-City umes. These range from DARPA’s > (HGV) during the next several years. air-breathing propulsion system. Mall, Dynetics will be able to start Glide Breaker and Operational Fires > THE RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY HAS NOT APPROVED A WEAPONS The Defense Department’s $10 bil- In Huntsville, Dynetics will assem- moving heavy equipment, including (OpFires) programs to the Advanced DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM FOR UNMANNED AIRCRAFT lion plan to field at least three differ- ble the Common Hypersonic Glide test chambers, into the production Full-Range Engine TBCC propul- ent HGV programs by 2025 has fueled Body (CHGB) for the Army’s ground- area. Phase 2 will open a high-bay sion system and the HAWC with Piotr Butowski Gdansk, Poland rapid development of a new industry launched LRHW and the Navy’s IRCPS, area for final integration and testing, Lockheed Martin. sector. The Air Force’s AGM-183A then ship the completed gliders to a which is scheduled to be completed in Some of the boosted initiatives have his summer, Russian Deputy the Forpost UAV, which is an Israel Air-Launched Rapid Response Weap- nearby Lockheed facility. Lockheed’s mid-December. nearer-term production potential than Defense Minister Alexey Aerospace Industries Searcher Mk. 2 on (ARRW) is scheduled to enter ser- workers will integrate the CHGB onto A network of suppliers will be feed- the air-breathing programs. In July, for TKrivoruchko visited a local and the largest and most advanced vice at the end of 2022, followed by a common two-stage, 34.5-in.-dia. ing subassemblies into the Dynetics example, Aerojet Rocketdyne revealed branch of the Ural Works of Civil Avi- reconnaissance UAV at the disposal the Army’s Long-Range Hypersonic missile. The ground-launched version production line. The Army will deliver it had successfully completed cold gas ation in Kazan to evaluate the prog- of the Russian Armed Forces. Weapon (LRHW) in 2023 and the Na- will then be delivered to a new Army the critical thermal protection sys- tests of the OpFires propulsion system, ress of the Altius (a Russian acro - At the UWCA’s Kazan airfield in vy’s Intermediate-Range Convention- artillery unit, and the Navy version tem, which is in development under marking another milestone toward nym) high-altitude long-endurance June, Krivoruchko was shown a test al Prompt Strike (IRCPS) in 2025. As will be inserted into a special launch a separate contract. General Atomics potential transition of the DARPA-led unmanned aircraft ordered by the specimen of the Altius-U with the the military’s chosen weapon system system in development for Virginia- Electromagnetic Systems is a subcon- effort to create an operational produc- Russian military. number 881 during the first presenta- integrator for all three programs, class submarines. tractor to Dynetics, producing “a cou- tion version of the ground-launched Despite the word “civil” in its name, tion of a weapon for the aircraft, ac- Lockheed Martin is the clear indus- The Air Force’s industrial plans ple of subassemblies” along with the hypersonic tactical missile. Devel- the Ural Works of Civil Aviation cording to a Russian television report. trial leader of a nascent HGV market for the ARRW are less clear, but the cables for the glide body, Turner says. oped with Lockheed Martin and the (UWCA), headquartered in Yekater- Two bombs of an unknown type lay with two geographic centers: Hunts- city of Palmdale announced last De- Raytheon Technologies is responsible U.S. Army, the OpFires missile is due inburg, supplies the Russian defense in front of the UAV, and another bomb ville and Palmdale, California. cember that Lockheed plans to open for delivering the control module for to begin flight tests in 2022. ministry. Its workers also assemble was hanging under the wing. The

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 41 DEFENSE RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY

Russian defense officials are evaluating the progress of Russia’s Altius high-altitude long-endurance UAV. Altius Specifications weight of the bomb can be estimated previous one, though it likely denotes at about 100-150 kg (220-330 lb.); it is that foreign components on the air- Dimensions (m [ft.]) supposedly guided by inertial naviga- craft were replaced by Russian ones. Wingspan ...... 28.38 (93) tion supported by a satellite navi- Krivoruchko says the Altius-RU will Length ...... 12.41 (41) gation receiver. A satellite communica- be “a reconnaissance-strike system tions antenna under the dismantled with long-endurance UAVs of a new Weights (kg [lb.]) cover at the top of the Altius front generation, equipped with a satellite Max. takeoff ...... 7,000 (15,432) and an electro-optical turret communications suite and elements Max. payload ...... 2,000 (4,409) under the central part of the fuselage of artificial intelligence, which can co- were shown for the first time. Ground operate with manned aircraft.” Performance operator positions were also revealed. In the summer of 2019, the UWCA Operational speed ....150-250 km/h (93-155 mph) The UWCA is not the original de- established a branch in Kazan and Altitude ...... 12,000 m (39,370 ft.) veloper of the UAV. Control of the pro- since then has been expanding by Endurance ...... 48 hr. gram was transferred to the UWCA purchasing areas and buildings near Source: Piotr Butowski from OKB Simonov in 2018, after the airfield and gradually poaching OKB’s CEO and chief designer Alexan- the staff of OKB Simonov. The UWCA der Gomzin was arrested on charges of likely will place Altius’ future produc- malpractice and embezzlement of gov- tion in Kazan and may transfer its UAV team may have caused additional dis- ernment funds. When the UWCA took production from Yekaterinburg. ruption. Also, Russia does not have a control of the program, its code name Since 2012, the UWCA has assem- coordinated UAS weapons develop- changed from Altius-O to Altius-U. At bled about 60 Forpost UAVs from ment program, even if armaments for the time, one technology demonstrator, components supplied by Israel. In Forpost, Inokhodets () and now 01, and two prototypes, 02 and 03, had December 2019, Russia’s defense min- the Altius have occasionally been dis- been built. The 03 aircraft features sat- istry ordered another 10 unmanned played. The work is still the initiative of ellite communications and other equip- aircraft systems (UAS)—each UAS individual companies in Russia. ment as well as a recently installed comprises three UAVs and a ground There is no clarity about the Altius electro-optical turret. control station —in the new version engine, either. Test aircraft are pow- On Aug. 20, 2019, the Altius-U UAV of Forpost-R and promised to order ered by two 373-kW (500-hp) A03/V12 made a widely advertised first flight. Al- 18 more systems, with delivery by diesel engines made by RED (Raikhlin though the airplane shown in the Rus- 2027. Forpost-R is a version of For- Aircraft Development), founded in sian military was numbered 881, it was post made within the “import substi- Germany by Russian immigrant probably the previous 03, which had tution” program—that is, completely Vladimir Raikhlin. Engine produc- already flown and was then repainted. from Russian components. tion was to be located in Russia, but It is unknown what changes were intro- The Altius project has not been easy. those plans are currently unrealistic. duced after the UWCA takeover. During nine years of development, only Instead, the Moscow Central Institute In December 2019, the defense three test aircraft have been created, of Aviation Motors has designed a new ministry ordered more R&D work and the mission equipment remains 500-hp engine for the Altius based on from the UWCA on an Altius-RU incomplete. The transfer of the Altius the car engine from the Aurus lim- variant. There is no information on project to another company and the ousine, the most technologically ad- how the version would differ from the unclear situation inside the design vanced piston engine in Russia. c

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Russia Nears Start During Shoigu’s visit to the assembly hall in Komso - molsk-on-Amur, the company rolled out the second prelim- of Su-57 Production inary series Su-57, or T-50S-2 (T-50 is the internal desig- nation for Su-57 prototypes; T-50S is the initial production version). Since the first aircraft, T-50S-1, crashed on Dec. 24, SU-35 MANUFACTURING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL

RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY > 2019, during a handover flight, the first aircraft delivered to AT LEAST MID-DECADE the Russian Aerospace Forces will be the T-50S-2. The T-50S-2 on display was still not fitted with at least > DEFENSE MINISTRY IS FOCUSED ON REDUCING one of the engines, some covers were not yet in place, and it SU-57 PURCHASING AND OPERATING COSTS had a makeshift radar nosecone. The tailfins were a bit of a mystery. They wore a pixel camouflage typical of Su-57 pro- Piotr Butowski Gdansk, Poland totypes, while the rest of the aircraft was still unpainted, rais- ing the question: Were the fins from another, earlier aircraft? ussia’s Su-57 multirole , years The aircraft was to be moved to the flight station on in the making, is nearing the start of production. Aug. 20, according to Alexander Pekarsh, Komsomolsk- on- RHowever, the ramp-up will still take several years, Amur plant director. “By Oct. 30, it is to be handed over for especially in light of the Russian military’s effort to save on operations.” The aircraft will likely go to the 23rd Fighter the program’s manufacturing and operating costs. In the Aviation Regiment at Dzyomgi, which is also the airfield of meantime, United Aircraft Corp. subsidiary Sukhoi’s Far the Komsomolsk-on-Amur plant. It is typical for new aircraft Russian defense officials are evaluating the progress East production facility will remain focused on manufac- to be initially delivered to a neighboring unit to ease qualified of Russia’s Altius high-altitude long-endurance UAV. turing the export-intended Su-35. maintenance. Russia’s defense ministry is concluding its decade-long According to a chart presented to Shoigu, the T-50S-2 Altius Specifications state armaments program this year and is in the process of will be the only Su-57 made this year, while the plan for 2021 weight of the bomb can be estimated previous one, though it likely denotes negotiating a new round of contracts for aircraft. Defense envisages the production of four Su-57s. Production volume at about 100-150 kg (220-330 lb.); it is that foreign components on the air- Dimensions (m [ft.]) Minister Sergei Shoigu visited two of United Aircraft Corp.’s will increase in the following years. In July 2019, the defense supposedly guided by inertial naviga- craft were replaced by Russian ones. Wingspan ...... 28.38 (93) fighter aircraft manufacturers, in Komsomolsk-on-Amur in ministry placed an order for 76 Su-57 fighters by 2028. tion supported by a satellite navi- Krivoruchko says the Altius-RU will Length ...... 12.41 (41) Russia’s Far East and in Irkutsk, on Aug. 12, promising to Shoigu stressed during his visits to Komsomolsk and gation receiver. A satellite communica- be “a reconnaissance-strike system purchase new aircraft. Irkutsk that purchase price and operating costs are of key tions antenna under the dismantled with long-endurance UAVs of a new Weights (kg [lb.]) cover at the top of the Altius front generation, equipped with a satellite Max. takeoff ...... 7,000 (15,432) fuselage and an electro-optical turret communications suite and elements Max. payload ...... 2,000 (4,409) under the central part of the fuselage of artificial intelligence, which can co- were shown for the first time. Ground operate with manned aircraft.” Performance operator positions were also revealed. In the summer of 2019, the UWCA Operational speed ....150-250 km/h (93-155 mph) The UWCA is not the original de- established a branch in Kazan and Altitude ...... 12,000 m (39,370 ft.) veloper of the UAV. Control of the pro- since then has been expanding by Endurance ...... 48 hr. gram was transferred to the UWCA purchasing areas and buildings near Source: Piotr Butowski from OKB Simonov in 2018, after the airfield and gradually poaching OKB’s CEO and chief designer Alexan- the staff of OKB Simonov. The UWCA der Gomzin was arrested on charges of likely will place Altius’ future produc- Fleet Discovery Military malpractice and embezzlement of gov- tion in Kazan and may transfer its UAV team may have caused additional dis- ernment funds. When the UWCA took production from Yekaterinburg. ruption. Also, Russia does not have a control of the program, its code name Since 2012, the UWCA has assem- coordinated UAS weapons develop- changed from Altius-O to Altius-U. At bled about 60 Forpost UAVs from ment program, even if armaments for Discover Opportunity with Unparalleled the time, one technology demonstrator, components supplied by Israel. In Forpost, Inokhodets (Orion) and now 01, and two prototypes, 02 and 03, had December 2019, Russia’s defense min- the Altius have occasionally been dis- Tracking of Global Military Fleets been built. The 03 aircraft features sat- istry ordered another 10 unmanned played. The work is still the initiative of ellite communications and other equip- aircraft systems (UAS)—each UAS individual companies in Russia. Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Edition simplifi es ment as well as a recently installed comprises three UAVs and a ground There is no clarity about the Altius tracking global and engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing electro-optical turret. control station —in the new version engine, either. Test aircraft are pow- and rotary — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your business. On Aug. 20, 2019, the Altius-U UAV of Forpost-R and promised to order ered by two 373-kW (500-hp) A03/V12 ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 engines made a widely advertised first flight. Al- 18 more systems, with delivery by diesel engines made by RED (Raikhlin in service with though the airplane shown in the Rus- 2027. Forpost-R is a version of For- Aircraft Development), founded in more than 400 military operators. sian military was numbered 881, it was post made within the “import substi- Germany by Russian immigrant ● Searchable and fi lterable by aircraft, engine, category, mission, lift type, probably the previous 03, which had tution” program—that is, completely Vladimir Raikhlin. Engine produc- weight class and more. already flown and was then repainted. from Russian components. tion was to be located in Russia, but See for yourself how Fleet Discovery Military can help you track aircraft and It is unknown what changes were intro- The Altius project has not been easy. those plans are currently unrealistic. engines so you never miss a business opportunity. duced after the UWCA takeover. During nine years of development, only Instead, the Moscow Central Institute In December 2019, the defense three test aircraft have been created, of Aviation Motors has designed a new ministry ordered more R&D work and the mission equipment remains 500-hp engine for the Altius based on To learn more, go to aviationweek.com/FDMilitary the car engine from the Aurus lim- from the UWCA on an Altius-RU incomplete. The transfer of the Altius Or call: Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 | Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 variant. There is no information on project to another company and the ousine, the most technologically ad- how the version would differ from the unclear situation inside the design vanced piston engine in Russia. c

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 43 DEFENSE

“it is necessary to contract 20 Su-35S aircraft soon.” UNITED AIRRAFT R Shoigu says : “We plan to conclude an additional state contract for the supply of multifunctional Su-35S aircraft. The contract amount will be 70 billion rubles [$940 million].” This indicates that the current price of one Su-35S is 3.5 billion rubles, about $47 million. The export price is much higher; Indonesia’s can- celed order of 2018 for 11 aircraft was worth $1.14 billion, or $104 million apiece. The fi nancial stabilization of the facil- ity in Russia’s Far East has an import- ant social context. The plant employs 9,600 people in a city with a population The second pre production version of the Su-57 is also denoted the T-50S-2. of 250,000, and so a large portion of the meeting was devoted to employment importance for the military. Pointing to the Su-57 price stability. During his visit, the defense minister was accom- chart, he told industry representatives: “The lower [the panied by the new governor of Khabarovsk, where protests price] goes, the stronger our friendship with you will be.” have been going on for weeks. He called for a reduction in fl ight-hour costs and for future An interesting question is why the government is buy- contracts covering the entire life cycle of an aircraft. ing Su-35S fi ghters for “fi nancial stabilization” rather than Production of the fi rst T-50 airframe in 2010 required Su-57s. Perhaps the Russian Aerospace Forces do not want 785,000 worker hours. The T-50S-2 required just 247,000 to increase the order for the Su-57 until the planned mod-

worker hours. In 2022- 23, the labor rate ITR UTSI of one Su-57 airframe will drop below 200,000 worker hours and be reduced to 146,000 worker hours by 2028. By com- parison, the production of one Su-35S requires 120,000 worker hours. A pro- gram to improve the quality of material is also being implemented. Production of one Su-57 requires 78 tons of alumi- num and 16 tons of titanium; the target is 64 and 14 tons, respectively. The plant has started managing the Su-57’s pro- duction fl ow. With Su-57 production just begin- ning, the main product in Komsomolsk remains the Su-35/Su-35S (the version without a letter is intended for export; S denotes the version for Russia). Ac- cording to Pekarsh, the Su-35S’ share of total 2020 production will be 42% (in- Russia plans to order 21 Su-30SM2  ghters, which denotes a new upgrade cluding remanufacturing), while export program, possibly with an expanded weapons suite. deliveries of the Su-35 will constitute 31% and the Su-57 20%. Civil production—the fuselage and ernized Su-57M (T-50M) version with new engines enters outer wing panels for the SSJ-100 passenger aircraft—is production. The modernized fi ghter is expected to enter set at 7%. service in the middle of this decade, Deputy Defense Min- The defense ministry previously ordered two batches of ister Aleksey Krivoruchko has said. the Su-35S: 48 fi ghters completed in 2011- 16, and 50 fi ghters During the Russian defense minister’s visit, there was no with delivery in 2016-20. Pekarsh says this year the facto- talk of export orders. In the long run, however, the market ry will deliver the last 10 Su-35S fi ghters from the second for the Su-35 is abroad. Russia does not plan further or- contract. “We delivered four airplanes in June, three will ders after the current “stabilizing” contract for 20 fi ghters. be handed over in September and three in November.” The fi rst foreign buyer, China, received 24 Su-35 fi ghters in The chart shown to Shoigu indicated one more previously 2016- 18. Indonesia placed its order for 11 fi ghters in February unknown contract for six Su-35S fi ghters with delivery in 2018, then terminated the contract due to U.S. pressure re- 2021-22; it may be an order to supplement aircraft retired sulting from the Countering America’s Adversaries Through for various reasons. Sanctions Act . According to Pekarsh, the plant has a full load for this and In the chart shown to Shoigu, export production of the next year. However, for fi nancial stabilization in 2022-24, Su-35 was presented in two lines, suggesting that there are

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

“it is necessary to contract 20 Su-35S two export contracts. Such orders would mean aircraft soon.” For one of those custom- more than a year of work UNITED AIRRAFT R Shoigu says : “We plan to conclude an ers, 22 Su-35 fighters are at the Irkutsk plant. additional state contract for the supply to be delivered this year The contract for Su- of multifunctional Su-35S aircraft. The and eight the next year, 30SM2 fighters is par- contract amount will be 70 billion rubles a total of 30. Almost ticularly interesting, [$940 million].” This indicates that the certainly this customer as such a modification current price of one Su-35S is 3.5 billion is Egypt, which is known has been previously un- rubles, about $47 million. The export to have signed a con- The Russian defense ministry heard of. In 2016, Sukhoi price is much higher; Indonesia’s can- tract for such a batch of launched an Su-30SM celed order of 2018 for 11 aircraft was Su-35 fighters in March is likely to purchase 20 Su-35S upgrade program, which worth $1.14 billion, or $104 million apiece. 2018. This July, five aircraft to promote financial provided for a new The fi nancial stabilization of the facil- Su-35 fighters without stability in 2022-24. computing system, an ity in Russia’s Far East has an import- any nationality marks, improved radar anten- ant social context. The plant employs but in a paint similar to PIOTR BUTOWSKI na and more powerful 9,600 people in a city with a population other Egyptian Air Force aircraft, were spotted in Russia. transmitter and a new Khibiny-U self-defense suite. The The second pre production version of the Su-57 is also denoted the T-50S-2. of 250,000, and so a large portion of the The second Su-35 export contract remains a mystery. weaponry was to be expanded with new Kh-31M, Kh-35U meeting was devoted to employment According to the chart, the second contract provides for and Kh-38M air-to-surface missiles, as well as heavy “izdeli- importance for the military. Pointing to the Su-57 price stability. During his visit, the defense minister was accom- the delivery of 12 aircraft in 2022, 14 in 2023 and probably ye 620” (“izdeliye” is Russian for “product”) air-to-air mis- chart, he told industry representatives: “The lower [the panied by the new governor of Khabarovsk, where protests 6-8 in 2024 (the picture of the chart is blurred), i.e., a total siles. Most likely, the Su-30SM2 is an aircraft modernized price] goes, the stronger our friendship with you will be.” have been going on for weeks. of 32-34 fighters. The customer could be China again. Other according to this program. He called for a reduction in fl ight-hour costs and for future An interesting question is why the government is buy- countries known to have negotiated the purchase of Su-35s Another upgrade program is the Su-30SM(D), where the contracts covering the entire life cycle of an aircraft. ing Su-35S fi ghters for “fi nancial stabilization” rather than include Algeria, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam. current 12.5-ton AL-31FP are being replaced with Production of the fi rst T-50 airframe in 2010 required Su-57s. Perhaps the Russian Aerospace Forces do not want Shoigu held a similar conference at the Irkutsk Aviation 14.5-ton AL-41F-1S engines from the Su-35 (hence the D, for 785,000 worker hours. The T-50S-2 required just 247,000 to increase the order for the Su-57 until the planned mod- Plant and declared that the defense ministry would order 21 Dvigatyel engine, in the designation). The first Su-30SM(D)

worker hours. In 2022- 23, the labor rate ITR UTSI Su-30SM2 fighters and 25 Yakovlev Yak-130 jet trainers. The retrofitted with AL-41F-1S engines is ready but has not yet of one Su-57 airframe will drop below contracts are to be worth “over 100 billion rubles” in total. started flight tests. c 200,000 worker hours and be reduced to 146,000 worker hours by 2028. By com- parison, the production of one Su-35S requires 120,000 worker hours. A pro- gram to improve the quality of material is also being implemented. Production of one Su-57 requires 78 tons of alumi- num and 16 tons of titanium; the target is 64 and 14 tons, respectively. The plant has started managing the Su-57’s pro- duction fl ow. With Su-57 production just begin- MRO TransAtlantic ning, the main product in Komsomolsk remains the Su-35/Su-35S (the version October 27-29 without a letter is intended for export; S denotes the version for Russia). Ac- cording to Pekarsh, the Su-35S’ share MRO TransAtlantic Virtual’s live streamed and on-demand of total 2020 production will be 42% (in- Russia plans to order 21 Su-30SM2  ghters, which denotes a new upgrade conference agenda will provide information on: cluding remanufacturing), while export program, possibly with an expanded weapons suite. deliveries of the Su-35 will constitute Fireside Chats with: • Global Leaders Panel Download the MRO TransAtlantic 31% and the Su-57 20%. Civil production—the fuselage and ernized Su-57M (T-50M) version with new engines enters brochure for the latest updates production. The modernized fi ghter is expected to enter • Airline Risk Management outer wing panels for the SSJ-100 passenger aircraft—is and a 25% savings! set at 7%. service in the middle of this decade, Deputy Defense Min- & Recovery The defense ministry previously ordered two batches of ister Aleksey Krivoruchko has said. • Forecast for Europe and the Su-35S: 48 fi ghters completed in 2011- 16, and 50 fi ghters During the Russian defense minister’s visit, there was no North America with delivery in 2016-20. Pekarsh says this year the facto- talk of export orders. In the long run, however, the market • Embracing the Diverse Future ry will deliver the last 10 Su-35S fi ghters from the second for the Su-35 is abroad. Russia does not plan further or- Jeff Martin Doug Parker contract. “We delivered four airplanes in June, three will ders after the current “stabilizing” contract for 20 fi ghters. • Restoring Public Confidence COO, WestJet CEO, American Airlines be handed over in September and three in November.” The fi rst foreign buyer, China, received 24 Su-35 fi ghters in in Air Travel The chart shown to Shoigu indicated one more previously 2016- 18. Indonesia placed its order for 11 fi ghters in February unknown contract for six Su-35S fi ghters with delivery in 2018, then terminated the contract due to U.S. pressure re- Multiple price points for entry! Choose the one that works for you. 2021-22; it may be an order to supplement aircraft retired sulting from the Countering America’s Adversaries Through mrotransatlantic.aviationweek.com for various reasons. Sanctions Act . #MROTAV | According to Pekarsh, the plant has a full load for this and In the chart shown to Shoigu, export production of the next year. However, for fi nancial stabilization in 2022-24, Su-35 was presented in two lines, suggesting that there are

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 45 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

laborious training and recertification AIR COMBAT every time because the AI is doing the hard part—how to control the aircraft and do the tactical maneuvers. That intuitive battle management skill that BY ALGORITHM the pilot has can then transfer from system to system.” > AI’S MACHINE-PRECISION CONTROL OF F-16 WINS THE DAY The outcome of the ADT comes with several caveats. The simulated > REINFORCEMENT LEARNING INVOLVED BILLIONS OF DOGFIGHTS dogfights took place between two unclassified JSBSim open-source Graham Warwick Washington models of the F-16. The AI agent had perfect-state information on its own alco is an artificial intelligence precursor to ACE, which will culmi- aircraft and its opponent’s, which en- agent, a machine-learning algo- nate in live flight tests of AI-enabled abled it to exploit its fine-precision F rithm that is barely a year old automated dogfighting between full- control. The pilot had a chair, replica but has the equivalent of 30 years’ size aircraft. The rapid progress in controls and a virtual-reality headset experience flying the Lockheed AI agent capability over the trials but did not have to endure the physi- Martin F-16. has given DARPA more confidence ological effects of the sustained high-g Banger, identified only by his call the algorithms will scale from simple maneuvers that ensued. sign for security reasons, is a gradu- 1v1 dogfighting to more complex, cam- Engagements were limited to ate of the instructor course at the U.S. paign-level air combat. simple 1v1 basic fighter maneuvers Air Force Weapons School with more “The AlphaDogfight part of the (BFM) and gun attacks. But instead than 2,000 hr. flight time in the F-16. program will increase the perfor - of a gun, damage was inflicted by On Aug. 20, in the final event mance and trust of local combat maneuvering a 3,000-ft.-long 1-deg. of DARPA’s AlphaDogfight Trials autonomy, these individual, 1v1, tac- cone onto the target. This avoided (ADT), Falco beat Banger 5-0 in air the need to train the AI agent when combat between two simulated F-16s. to pull the trigger, data for which is Falco had already beaten artificial- “I don’t think you’re “really sparse,” admits Bell. intelligence (AI) agents from Lock- Crucially, the simulations did not heed and six other finalists to win the seeing the end of a include the “bubble” around each right to fight the human. human fighter pilot; aircraft required by training safety With a winning tactic of maneu- standards to avoid collisions. These vering hard from the outset to take I think you’re seeing the rules do not allow pilots to pass with- high-angle gunshots against its op- refinement into a in 500 ft. of each other and restrict ponent, the “hyperaggressive” Falco human weapon system” gunshot angles to no more than 135 showed “superhuman aiming ability,” deg.—limits both aircraft “were vio- according to DARPA’s competition lating routinely,” says Javorsek. co-commentators, Chris Demay and tical behaviors,” Javorsek says. “Then While such limits would not ap - Justin Mock—fine motor control that we’re going to expand that to team ply in real air combat, adhering to was honed by deep reinforcement tactical behaviors, 2v1 and 2v2. Our the training rules builds habits into learning over at least 4 billion train- hope is we’ll be able to scale these human pilots, Banger contends. “I ing examples, says Heron Systems, trusted algorithms to more complex may not be comfortable pulling my Falco’s developer. campaign levels with multiaircraft aircraft into position where I might That was not true at the first trial, operational behaviors.” run into something else or take that in November 2019, where the AI DARPA chose dogfighting because high-aspect gunshot, and the AI agents struggled to simply fly the it is “a closed-world problem that an would exploit that.” aircraft. But progress was rapid, and AI algorithm can learn really well,” Also the AI agents were not allowed by the second trial in January, “they says Tim Grayson, director of DAR- to learn during the trial events. But were doing things that our pilots PA’s Strategic Technology Office. “At the pilot was. This was clear in the really thought looked a lot like basic the same time, there are higher-level fifth and final engagement, when fighter maneuvers,” says Col. Daniel cognitive problems, the battle man- Banger tried a different tactic: taking Javorsek, manager of DARPA’s Air agement, more strategic things, the combat down to the minimum altitude Combat Evolution (ACE) program. intuitive decision-making that for ma- or “hard deck.” In earlier trials, “our “Even a week before Trial 1, we had chines are still a long way off.” agents were hard-decking almost 50% agents that were not very good at fly- Quoting a former Air Force War- of the time in defensive situations,” ing. We were able to turn that around, fare Center commander as saying says Bell. Heron’s focus for Trial 3 and since then we’ve been really in “I’ve got to stop spending so much was on zero hard decks. “You see the first place,” says Benjamin Bell, lead time training fingers and more time pilot trying to take advantage of that developer of Falco at Heron, a small training brains,” Grayson himself in the final example, and thankfully business based in California and the says: “Imagine a skilled fighter pilot we didn’t hard-deck,” he says. Washington, D.C., area. who can move from aircraft to air - Heron credits Falco’s fine-point- The AlphaDogfight Trials were a craft without having to go through ing of the F-16 to a control strategy

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE laborious training and recertification AIR COMBAT every time because the AI is doing the hard part—how to control the aircraft and do the tactical maneuvers. That intuitive battle management skill that BY ALGORITHM the pilot has can then transfer from system to system.” > AI’S MACHINE-PRECISION CONTROL OF F-16 WINS THE DAY The outcome of the ADT comes with several caveats. The simulated > REINFORCEMENT LEARNING INVOLVED BILLIONS OF DOGFIGHTS dogfights took place between two unclassified JSBSim open-source Graham Warwick Washington models of the F-16. The AI agent had perfect-state information on its own alco is an artificial intelligence precursor to ACE, which will culmi- aircraft and its opponent’s, which en- agent, a machine-learning algo- nate in live flight tests of AI-enabled abled it to exploit its fine-precision F rithm that is barely a year old automated dogfighting between full- control. The pilot had a chair, replica but has the equivalent of 30 years’ size aircraft. The rapid progress in controls and a virtual-reality headset experience flying the Lockheed AI agent capability over the trials but did not have to endure the physi- Martin F-16. has given DARPA more confidence ological effects of the sustained high-g Banger, identified only by his call the algorithms will scale from simple maneuvers that ensued. sign for security reasons, is a gradu- 1v1 dogfighting to more complex, cam- Engagements were limited to ate of the instructor course at the U.S. paign-level air combat. simple 1v1 basic fighter maneuvers Air Force Weapons School with more “The AlphaDogfight part of the (BFM) and gun attacks. But instead than 2,000 hr. flight time in the F-16. program will increase the perfor - of a gun, damage was inflicted by On Aug. 20, in the final event mance and trust of local combat maneuvering a 3,000-ft.-long 1-deg. of DARPA’s AlphaDogfight Trials autonomy, these individual, 1v1, tac- cone onto the target. This avoided (ADT), Falco beat Banger 5-0 in air the need to train the AI agent when combat between two simulated F-16s. to pull the trigger, data for which is Falco had already beaten artificial- “I don’t think you’re “really sparse,” admits Bell. DARPA intelligence (AI) agents from Lock- Crucially, the simulations did not that emphasized smoothness. “We’re U.S. Air Force F-16 instructor pilot “Banger” lost five of five dogfights to heed and six other finalists to win the seeing the end of a include the “bubble” around each controlling it around 10 Hz. It looked an artificial intelligence algorithm despite adapting his tactics to counter right to fight the human. human fighter pilot; aircraft required by training safety like a lot of our competitors were AI-agent Falco’s aggressive maneuvers. With a winning tactic of maneu- standards to avoid collisions. These controlling at 50 Hz,” Bell says. That vering hard from the outset to take I think you’re seeing the rules do not allow pilots to pass with- limited update rate required the AI ponent, including the human, that we gagement, then I’m considering it a high-angle gunshots against its op- refinement into a in 500 ft. of each other and restrict agent to know its trajectory for the went against.” success because those are the first ponent, the “hyperaggressive” Falco human weapon system” gunshot angles to no more than 135 next 3 sec. to keep its opponent within Heron used model-free reinforce- steps I need to create trust in these showed “superhuman aiming ability,” deg.—limits both aircraft “were vio- the 1-deg. cone of the “gun.” ment learning. “There’s no model of sorts of agents,” Javorsek says. according to DARPA’s competition lating routinely,” says Javorsek. “We saw that a lot with Lockheed, how the environment’s going to run. “If I were to walk away from today co-commentators, Chris Demay and tical behaviors,” Javorsek says. “Then While such limits would not ap - where we’re both nose-on, we’re both We’re not predicting the future state and say, ‘I don’t trust the AI’s ability Justin Mock—fine motor control that we’re going to expand that to team ply in real air combat, adhering to doing damage, but for whatever frac- of the other plane or our own. It’s to perform fine motor movements and was honed by deep reinforcement tactical behaviors, 2v1 and 2v2. Our the training rules builds habits into tions of a second that they don’t have much easier,” says Bell. By avoiding achieve kills and [damage] that I’m learning over at least 4 billion train- hope is we’ll be able to scale these human pilots, Banger contends. “I us in their 1-deg. cone, that’s when the complex problem of modeling, uncomfortable with,’ I’d have a lack ing examples, says Heron Systems, trusted algorithms to more complex may not be comfortable pulling my we’re racking up damage and they’re Heron was able to start training Falco of integrity,” Banger says. Falco’s developer. campaign levels with multiaircraft aircraft into position where I might not,” he says. “That’s how we won a on Day 1. “It’s hard to do and if your The mystery fighter pilot also That was not true at the first trial, operational behaviors.” run into something else or take that lot of those engagements.” model’s bad, then your agent’s going joined in the speculation on how in November 2019, where the AI DARPA chose dogfighting because high-aspect gunshot, and the AI Bell also credits Falco’s success to to end up worse,” he says. AI-controlled autonomous aircraft agents struggled to simply fly the it is “a closed-world problem that an would exploit that.” Heron’s approach to reinforcement Over in just 10 min., the human could change the face of air combat. aircraft. But progress was rapid, and AI algorithm can learn really well,” Also the AI agents were not allowed learning, a technique in which an AI pilot’s one-sided loss to a machine “If I have an autonomous system out by the second trial in January, “they says Tim Grayson, director of DAR- to learn during the trial events. But agent is trained by being rewarded unleashed a spate of comment and there, and we’re in combat against a were doing things that our pilots PA’s Strategic Technology Office. “At the pilot was. This was clear in the for certain actions. Falco was trained speculation online, ranging from “end singular adversary, I would love to really thought looked a lot like basic the same time, there are higher-level fifth and final engagement, when over a total of about five weeks of an era” to “just one more overhyped have it take that high-aspect gunshot fighter maneuvers,” says Col. Daniel cognitive problems, the battle man- Banger tried a different tactic: taking through billions of dogfights against AI demonstration.” But DARPA has on the enemy,” he says. Javorsek, manager of DARPA’s Air agement, more strategic things, the combat down to the minimum altitude a league of 102 unique AI agents. not set out to replace the human pi- There is also potential for “devel- Combat Evolution (ACE) program. intuitive decision-making that for ma- or “hard deck.” In earlier trials, “our “We started off early with a league lot. Instead, its ACE program aims to oping a wingman that has learned my “Even a week before Trial 1, we had chines are still a long way off.” agents were hard-decking almost 50% of agents,” he says. “We wanted to build trust in AI so that the pilot can assumptions so well that it’s able to agents that were not very good at fly- Quoting a former Air Force War- of the time in defensive situations,” create multiple different agents that focus on battle management while the predict with 98-99% probability what ing. We were able to turn that around, fare Center commander as saying says Bell. Heron’s focus for Trial 3 are all flying in certain patterns. machine flies the aircraft. I’m going to do, and so we as a combat and since then we’ve been really in “I’ve got to stop spending so much was on zero hard decks. “You see the They have different reward struc - “If we convinced even a couple of pair or four-ship become even more first place,” says Benjamin Bell, lead time training fingers and more time pilot trying to take advantage of that tures, different ways of controlling pilots that what they were seeing lethal,” he says. “For that reason, I developer of Falco at Heron, a small training brains,” Grayson himself in the final example, and thankfully the plane and different neural net - out of this Heron autonomous agent don’t think you’re seeing the end of business based in California and the says: “Imagine a skilled fighter pilot we didn’t hard-deck,” he says. work architectures. The league gave looked like something that was intel- a human fighter pilot; I think you’re Washington, D.C., area. who can move from aircraft to air - Heron credits Falco’s fine-point- us the robustness so that, across the ligent and creative and making smart seeing the refinement into a human The AlphaDogfight Trials were a craft without having to go through ing of the F-16 to a control strategy board, we were able to beat any op - decisions in this dynamic BFM en- weapon system.” c

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 47 SPACE > Framework for UK space launch p. 50 Rocket companies eye British launch start date p. 52 FINAL COUNTDOWN

> SEVEN SITES ARE PROPOSED FOR SMALLSAT LAUNCH Shetland, Scotland ACROSS THE UK Sutherland, Scotland SUTHERLAND SPACE HUB > Western Isles, RECEIVED PLANNING Scotland APPROVALS IN AUGUST > SHETLAND SPACE CENTER Britain’s HOPES TO ACHIEVE FIRST Future LAUNCH IN 2021 Space Gateways Tony Osborne London Prestwick, Scotland he UK wants to be the fi rst Campbeltown, nation in Europe from which Scotland commercial launch com- panies can send G T into orbit. The British government often reaches out to stakeholders— Snowdonia, Wales particularly those that will be af- A fected by new regulation—for feed- back on proposed legislation before it is presented to lawmakers. And now, as the government consults on the regulations that will make local Newquay, England space launches viable, sites across the country are positioning themselves to Source: Sce ec be ready for the fi rst launch, poten- tially as soon as late 2021.

The British gave up their govern- The UK’s proposed vertical launch sites are situated in Northern Scotland for ment-funded launch ambitions in the polar and sun-synchronous orbits and bene t from largely open ocean and 1960s, preferring instead to focus on uncongested skies to launch through and over. The horizontal launch sites the development of satellite technolo- mainly make use of former military air elds with close proximity to the sea and gy, an industry that has subsequently thrived. But in a new era of commer- long runways capable of handling large carrier aircraft such as the Boeing 747. cial spacefl ight, “Britain wants to of- fer small-satellite manufacturers a di- ing the UK’s share of the international “It seems that people are willing to rect end-to-end route to launch,” Ian space market by 10% by 2030. pay a premium to stay local,” Larmour Annett, deputy CEO of the UK Space Interest in UK launch is not a fad, says. “The real issue in the smallsat Agency, told a Chris Larmour, CEO of launch oper- market is time, not the money. Some virtual forum in July. ator Orbex, tells Aviation Week. He of these companies have their satel- “This will bring new markets into sees a “strong desire” from European lite stuck in a queue for launch. They the country,” added Annett, noting satellite companies to stay in Europe can be bumped three or four times, that launch capabilities could contrib- rather than transport their payload and that hurts their business plans ute to the government’s aim of grow- halfway around the globe for launch. a lot. . . . We can give them that reli-

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE > Framework for UK space launch p. 50 Rocket companies eye British launch start date p. 52

able on-time departure effectively.” the Snowdonia Space Port, a former mitigation” to make sure the environ- The UK is a useful launch site for flight-test airfield at Llanbedr, Wales; ment is protected and that “this will small satellites heading to sun-syn- and Spaceport Cornwall, which will bring local and regional and national chronous and polar orbits, particu- use the runway of Newquay Airport, economic benefit.” Securing planning FINAL COUNTDOWN larly for observation and Earth-mon- also a former Royal Air Force (RAF) permission is only part of the story. itoring missions. station for maritime patrol aircraft. Turning this sleepy crofting land into To kick-start commercial a launch site was not foreseen when launch, the British govern- Scottish land-use laws were first > SEVEN SITES ARE PROPOSED ment has provided grants drawn up in 1886, so the HIE now has FOR SMALLSAT LAUNCH Shetland, Scotland to potential launch sites and to go to the Scottish Land Courts to ACROSS THE UK launch operators. It also has present its proposals for development Sutherland, Scotland secured international agree- and ensure the scheme will bring ben- SUTHERLAND SPACE HUB ments such as the Technol- efits to the crofting community that is > Western Isles, ogy Safeguards Agreement leasing the land to the HIE. RECEIVED PLANNING Scotland with the U.S. government. Land Court permissions should en- APPROVALS IN AUGUST That accord permits U.S. able spades to be driven into the site companies to operate from in early 2021. Under its business plan, SHETLAND SPACE CENTER Britain’s CENTER SHETLAND SPACE UK spaceports and eases the Sutherland Space Hub will be built > Shetland Space Center the export of space launch as a single launchpad capable of up to HOPES TO ACHIEVE FIRST Future technology between the 12 launches a year. The facility will be LAUNCH IN 2021 countries—although the run by a launch site operator (LSO) Space full details of the document likely to be a consortium. They will Gateways have yet to be published, as work on a build-and-operate model, Tony Osborne London Prestwick, it still must be ratified by the charge a launch fee and pay rent to Scotland British Parliament (AW&ST the HIE for exclusive use of the site he UK wants to be the fi rst Campbeltown, June 29-July 12, p. 60). and its facilities. A tendering process Scotland The UK also has secured for the LSO will begin soon. nation in Europe from which a memorandum of under- Kirk says he is hopeful that Suther- commercial launch com- standing with the Faroe land’s first launch will take place in 2022 and could be conducted by Orbex panies can send satellites G Islands, a self-governing archipelago of Denmark, with its Prime launcher.

T HIGHLANDS AND ISLANDS ENTERPRISE into orbit. The British government for overflight, and work is “We are obviously considering who often reaches out to stakeholders— Space Hub Sutherland underway to secure similar will be first, but the question is whether Snowdonia, Wales agreements with Iceland. we will be making a profit in 10 years’ particularly those that will be af- A Among the first to re - time,” Kirk says. “It is really important fected by new regulation—for feed- ceive a grant was Space that this is a commercial model. back on proposed legislation before Hub Sutherland, a site on Sutherland needs to offer a competi- it is presented to lawmakers. And the picturesque A’Mhoine tive and effective launch service. . . . There peninsula proposed by the is no doubt at all that if it’s too expen- now, as the government consults on Highlands and Islands En- sive, people will go elsewhere.” the regulations that will make local Newquay, England terprise (HIE), a regional With its planning permissions in space launches viable, sites across the development agency. HIE place, Sutherland has a significant received £3 million ($3.9 lead on other sites, but it has also country are positioning themselves to Source: Sce ec million) in funding to sup- cleared a path for others.

be ready for the fi rst launch, poten- CORNWALL SPACEPORT port infrastructure devel- On the island of Unst, part of the tially as soon as late 2021. Spaceport Cornwall opment for the facility. It Shetland Islands, the management was announced by the UK behind the Shetland Space Center The British gave up their govern- The UK’s proposed vertical launch sites are situated in Northern Scotland for The Sceptre report—produced by Space Agency two years ago at the (SSC) hopes to beat Sutherland by ment-funded launch ambitions in the polar and sun-synchronous orbits and bene t from largely open ocean and the Elecnor Deimos space consultancy Farnborough Airshow (AW&ST July launching a year earlier if the gov - 1960s, preferring instead to focus on uncongested skies to launch through and over. The horizontal launch sites in 2017—examined 12 potential verti- 30-Aug. 19, 2018, p. 43). ernment’s regulations are in place to the development of satellite technolo- cal launch sites located across north- Launch operators Lockheed Martin allow it. The SSC’s site at Saxa Vord, mainly make use of former military air elds with close proximity to the sea and gy, an industry that has subsequently ern Scotland. It concluded that a “sig- and Orbex received $31 million and $7 also the location of an RAF radar sta- thrived. But in a new era of commer- long runways capable of handling large carrier aircraft such as the Boeing 747. nificant market” could exist for a UK million, respectively, to support initial tion, was named in the Sceptre report cial spacefl ight, “Britain wants to of- launch service if logistics challenges launch operations there. The initiative as the best location for launch in the fer small-satellite manufacturers a di- ing the UK’s share of the international “It seems that people are willing to posed by the remote areas could be has since successfully navigated hur- UK, in part because it avoids flying rect end-to-end route to launch,” Ian space market by 10% by 2030. pay a premium to stay local,” Larmour overcome. Since the report’s publica- dles posed by the British planning over the Faroe Islands and Iceland. Annett, deputy CEO of the UK Space Interest in UK launch is not a fad, says. “The real issue in the smallsat tion, three vertical launch sites have system, finally securing approvals Plans for the SSC are on a larger Agency, told a Farnborough Airshow Chris Larmour, CEO of launch oper- market is time, not the money. Some emerged in Scotland: in Shetland, from local authorities in August de- scale than those at Sutherland, with virtual forum in July. ator Orbex, tells Aviation Week. He of these companies have their satel- Sutherland and in the Western Isles. spite some local opposition about the proposals for three launchpads and “This will bring new markets into sees a “strong desire” from European lite stuck in a queue for launch. They Four sites for horizontal launch are environmental impact of the facilities. three integration facilities potentially the country,” added Annett, noting satellite companies to stay in Europe can be bumped three or four times, also proposed: Glasgow Prestwick Air- The permissions come with caveats, enabling up to 30 launches a year, that launch capabilities could contrib- rather than transport their payload and that hurts their business plans port and Campbeltown—the former says Roy Kirk, Space Hub Sutherland both orbital and suborbital. ute to the government’s aim of grow- halfway around the globe for launch. a lot. . . . We can give them that reli- Machrihanish Air Base in Scotland; project director, including “significant “We are in talks with seven or eight

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 49 SPACE

launch providers,” says Scott Ham- mond, operations director for the SSC. “Will they all make it? No . . . but we A Framework for UK Space Launch were always reticent about just being Tony Osborne London beholden to one single launch provid- er,” he adds. The SSC team is putting THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT WILL rity of infrastructure, cybersystems and together an environmental assessment generate a framework for UK space personnel are also being considered in and will apply for planning permission launch, covering everything from how a the consultation. from the local authority this year. launch should be procured to the oper- Regulation of spaceflight operations Hammond says the initiative has ation and licensing of spaceports and from the UK will be overseen by the UK strong support from the local popu- providing range-control services. Civil Aviation Authority, while accidents lation and councils, who see the ben- The legislation will be bolted onto will be probed by the UK Space Acci- efit of diversifying the economy into space and away from the islands’ de- the UK’s Space Industry Act, which dent Investigation Authority. Launch pendence on the oil-and-gas industry. became law in 2018 and, according to and launch site operators applying for a “People often don’t realize what the government, enables the regulation license will be required to demonstrate Shetland has to offer,” says Hammond. of a wide range of commercial space- that the risks to the general population Businesses that currently support flight technologies, including vertical- created by their operations are “as low the energy industry can also support and air-launched vehicles, suborbital as reasonably practicable,” or ALARP, launch. He cites a local company, Pure and balloons. an approach used by other high-risk Energy, that produces hydrogen. The waste product of their process is oxy- The launching of a rocket from a industries including nuclear power as gen, which could be repurposed into liq- fixed-wing aircraft in international air- well as oil and gas. uid oxygen for use in the launchers. “We space will be regulated by the UK Licenses will be granted for launch, want to leverage as much of the local rules if the aircraft takes off from a UK range-control services and launch sites, capacity as possible,” Hammond says. spaceport. They will equally apply to both vertical and horizontal. Additional In addition to owning the site, the sea-launched systems, if the rocket licenses will be needed for those op- SSC will act as the launch site opera- embarks from a UK port. erators performing reentry of reusable tor; the model will be like that of run- ning an airport. The legislation includes consideration launch systems into the UK to ensure “Our biggest worry is [whether] for human spaceflight. Although such they are as safe as when they launched. the regulations will be in place ready flights from the UK are not proposed Interested parties have until Oct. 21 for launch,” says Hammond. “The UK yet, tourist flights could emerge in the to provide comment on the proposed is in a competition with other Euro- coming years. Issues around the secu- legislation. c pean countries like Norway, Sweden and the Azores [Portugal], and we are ahead. But the longer we take over while Virgin is investing £2.5 million on behalf of the UK Defense Ministry. the regulations, the more we fall back in the project. Virgin Orbit hopes to Few details about the project have into the pack.” perform the first horizontal satellite emerged since the novel coronavirus “There is a sizable market that the launch from Cornwall in 2022, Space- pandemic took hold. UK can benefit from here, and being port Cornwall Director Miles Carden Plans for a horizontal launch space- first to market makes a big differ - told a Farnborough Airshow virtual port at Campbeltown on the Mull of ence,” Hammond says. forum in July. The site is one of five Kintyre received a £488,000 boost The SSC already has agreements Virgin Orbit is setting up in different from the UK government in 2019, in place with launch providers from parts of the world to achieve the orbit paving the way for feasibility studies. North America and Europe, includ- trajectories required. has been exploring ing Canada- based C6 Launch Sys- “Our spaceport will be open to using the Cold War airfield for flight tems, Scotland-based Skyrora as all; there is no exclusivity between testing of its Synergetic Air-Breathing well as other undisclosed companies. the two [Virgin Orbit and Spaceport Rocket Engine (SABRE). Proposals to Norfolk, England-based Raptor Cornwall],” Carden said. use the nearby Prestwick Airport for Aerospace hopes to fly suborbital Work is underway to develop the horizontal launch have been led by Or- payload flights from Shetland, while spaceport infrastructure and ground bital Access Ltd., a company looking Bristol, England-based B2Space is support equipment “that will pro - at eventually using the SABRE engine looking at launching a rocket from a vide capability for other providers,” for an air-launched . Space- platform suspended under a strato- he added. port Snowdonia also has received spheric . Proposals for a vertical launch £500,000 in grants and this year sup- At the opposite end of the coun- site on the island of North Uist have ported the testing of B2Space’s strato- try, Spaceport Cornwall is envisaged faced objections from locals on envi- spheric launch balloon. The airfield, to become the UK base for Virgin ronmental grounds, but it is backed previously a UK Defense Ministry Orbit’s horizontal launch system, by the Western Isles Council and is flight-test site, is currently being used Launcher One, with funding from being developed in conjunction with by companies to flight-test unmanned the UK Space Agency and the Corn- defense contractor Qinetiq, which aircraft systems and electric urban air wall Council worth up to £20 million, operates the Hebrides missile range mobility platforms. c

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE launch providers,” says Scott Ham- mond, operations director for the SSC. “Will they all make it? No . . . but we A Framework for UK Space Launch were always reticent about just being Tony Osborne London beholden to one single launch provid- er,” he adds. The SSC team is putting THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT WILL rity of infrastructure, cybersystems and together an environmental assessment generate a framework for UK space personnel are also being considered in and will apply for planning permission launch, covering everything from how a the consultation. from the local authority this year. launch should be procured to the oper- Regulation of spaceflight operations Hammond says the initiative has ation and licensing of spaceports and from the UK will be overseen by the UK strong support from the local popu- providing range-control services. Civil Aviation Authority, while accidents lation and councils, who see the ben- The legislation will be bolted onto will be probed by the UK Space Acci- efit of diversifying the economy into space and away from the islands’ de- the UK’s Space Industry Act, which dent Investigation Authority. Launch pendence on the oil-and-gas industry. became law in 2018 and, according to and launch site operators applying for a A VIRTUAL EVENT “People often don’t realize what the government, enables the regulation license will be required to demonstrate Shetland has to offer,” says Hammond. of a wide range of commercial space- that the risks to the general population SEPTEMBER 15-16, 2020 Businesses that currently support flight technologies, including vertical- created by their operations are “as low 14:30 CET / 8:30 EDT the energy industry can also support and air-launched vehicles, suborbital as reasonably practicable,” or ALARP, launch. He cites a local company, Pure spaceplanes and balloons. an approach used by other high-risk Energy, that produces hydrogen. The waste product of their process is oxy- The launching of a rocket from a industries including nuclear power as Designed for Leaders and Decision-makers from OEMs gen, which could be repurposed into liq- fixed-wing aircraft in international air- well as oil and gas. uid oxygen for use in the launchers. “We space will be regulated by the UK Licenses will be granted for launch, to Suppliers in the Commercial Aviation Suppliers Industry want to leverage as much of the local rules if the aircraft takes off from a UK range-control services and launch sites, capacity as possible,” Hammond says. spaceport. They will equally apply to both vertical and horizontal. Additional SpeedNews is pleased to present its 21st Annual Commercial Aviation Topics focus on key components driving In addition to owning the site, the sea-launched systems, if the rocket licenses will be needed for those op- the industry: SSC will act as the launch site opera- Industry Suppliers Conference – Europe. embarks from a UK port. erators performing reentry of reusable tor; the model will be like that of run- Supply chain trends and the future landscape The legislation includes consideration launch systems into the UK to ensure While COVID-19 makes it unsafe for us to gather face-to-face, we want to ning an airport. Raw materials and manufacturers supply chain for human spaceflight. Although such they are as safe as when they launched. “Our biggest worry is [whether] make sure you and your organization can receive up-to-date information. Managing supplier risks and investments the regulations will be in place ready flights from the UK are not proposed Interested parties have until Oct. 21 In fact, the current state of our environment makes digital transformation OEM product strategy and market for launch,” says Hammond. “The UK yet, tourist flights could emerge in the to provide comment on the proposed even more imperative for all of us! developments is in a competition with other Euro- coming years. Issues around the secu- legislation. c Aircraft production and delivery forecasts pean countries like Norway, Sweden This virtual event will provide delegates — equipment manufacturers, and the Azores [Portugal], and we are Market and technology drivers from the material suppliers, aviation industry analysts, financial institutions, and OEM perspective ahead. But the longer we take over while Virgin is investing £2.5 million on behalf of the UK Defense Ministry. marketing executives — with important updates about the commercial the regulations, the more we fall back in the project. Virgin Orbit hopes to Few details about the project have Who benefits from attending? into the pack.” perform the first horizontal satellite emerged since the novel coronavirus aviation industry. Aircraft and engine manufacturers will present status Strategic planning, marketing executives “There is a sizable market that the launch from Cornwall in 2022, Space- pandemic took hold. reports on product strategies and market developments. Industry UK can benefit from here, and being port Cornwall Director Miles Carden Plans for a horizontal launch space- and business development leaders experts will present production and delivery forecasts and review the first to market makes a big differ - told a Farnborough Airshow virtual port at Campbeltown on the Mull of Supply chain executives and senior ence,” Hammond says. forum in July. The site is one of five Kintyre received a £488,000 boost current environment and economic status of the industry. Supply chain decision makers The SSC already has agreements Virgin Orbit is setting up in different from the UK government in 2019, management, industry restructuring, maintenance and subcontractor Equipment OEMs, sub-tier manufacturers, material and parts suppliers in place with launch providers from parts of the world to achieve the orbit paving the way for feasibility studies. issues will also be addressed. North America and Europe, includ- trajectories required. Reaction Engines has been exploring Industry analysts ing Canada- based C6 Launch Sys- “Our spaceport will be open to using the Cold War airfield for flight Lessors and financial community members tems, Scotland-based Skyrora as all; there is no exclusivity between testing of its Synergetic Air-Breathing WHICH FORMAT IS BETTER FOR… Economic development executives well as other undisclosed companies. the two [Virgin Orbit and Spaceport Rocket Engine (SABRE). Proposals to A better return on Learning about Learning about trends Norfolk, England-based Raptor Cornwall],” Carden said. use the nearby Prestwick Airport for time invested specific topics in the industry Aerospace hopes to fly suborbital Work is underway to develop the horizontal launch have been led by Or- Sponsorships payload flights from Shetland, while spaceport infrastructure and ground bital Access Ltd., a company looking Sponsorships enable you to promote your brand, Bristol, England-based B2Space is support equipment “that will pro - at eventually using the SABRE engine products and/or services on the expansive Aviation Week Network, and on-site throughout the looking at launching a rocket from a vide capability for other providers,” for an air-launched spaceplane. Space- Conference. Customized sponsorships are also platform suspended under a strato- he added. port Snowdonia also has received available. The earlier you begin your Sponsorship, spheric balloon. Proposals for a vertical launch £500,000 in grants and this year sup- the more valuable it is! The Aviation Week Network averages more than two million page views per At the opposite end of the coun- site on the island of North Uist have ported the testing of B2Space’s strato- month — that’s millions of potential views of your try, Spaceport Cornwall is envisaged faced objections from locals on envi- spheric launch balloon. The airfield, logo if you start today! To become a Sponsor contact Joanna Speed, Managing Director, to become the UK base for Virgin ronmental grounds, but it is backed previously a UK Defense Ministry VIRTUAL EQUAL PHYSICAL Source: Informa Customer Research – Digital Events Orbit’s horizontal launch system, by the Western Isles Council and is flight-test site, is currently being used A&D Conferences at +1-310-857-7691. Launcher One, with funding from being developed in conjunction with by companies to flight-test unmanned the UK Space Agency and the Corn- defense contractor Qinetiq, which aircraft systems and electric urban air Register and Learn More at: wall Council worth up to £20 million, operates the Hebrides missile range mobility platforms. c 2901 28th Street, Suite 100 • Santa Monica, CA 90405, USA Conf.Events/ACE Tel: +1-310-857-7691 • Email: [email protected] 50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

Rocket Companies Eye 2022 Launch the sustainer and booster stag- es were lost at sea. But the tests Date From British Launch Sites will inform the development of Skyrora XL, a 24-m-tall rock- > SKYRORA IS DEVELOPING A THREE-STAGE XL SATELLITE LAUNCHER et powered by nine internally developed Skyforce 3D-print- > ORBEX HAS CONTRACTED FOR SIX SATELLITE LAUNCHES ed engines in the first stage and a single Skyforce motor Tony Osborne London in the second. Skyrora says the XL will put payloads of up lmost 50 years after the UK er windows in the often unpre- to 315 kg (700 lb.) into polar developed a space launch ca- dictable British climate. and sun-synchronous orbits of Apability and then abandoned it, The use of HTP, says Marlow, about 500 km. a new era of UK space launch is beck- is part of Skyrora’s approach to Technologies for Skyrora XL oning. Private companies, domestic ecofriendly launch. That also have been developed in-house, and international, are pressing ahead includes the development of leaning on research and devel- with research and development pro- a new fuel, Ecosene, an alter- opment facilities in Slovakia grams that will allow them to conduct native to kerosene made from and Ukraine, “where overheads small-satellite launches from British waste recyclable plastics. “We are five times lower than in the shores potentially as early as 2022. will have 45% less [carbon- UK,” says Marlow. “As a new The outlook is broad and diverse, dioxide] emissions per launch space company trying to get to with proposals for a mix of verti- than our equivalent competi- market with a six-year financial cal, horizontal and balloon-based tors,” Marlow says. developmental plan, we have to launchers provided by a variety of “Our customers are becoming be innovative where we can,” well- established companies and inno- more and more environmentally he adds. vative startups, many of which have conscious, and they are launch- Ultimately, the plan is to de- been inspired by the innovations de- ing environment-monitoring, sign, manufacture and launch veloped for the during data-driven satellites. They everything from the UK. But the 1960s. need that option to launch,” the company has not made a The government-funded Black he adds. final decision on a launch site Arrow launched the UK’s Prospero The use of peroxide also en- and is maintaining discus- satellite into orbit from the Austra- ables a stop-start capability sions with all the UK vertical lian Outback in October 1971, but the for the third stage, allowing launch sites. Marlow notes that program had already been canceled. trajectories to be adjusted for Skyrora’s progress on launcher Ministers had balked at the cost of de- increased orbital accuracy, development is outpacing the veloping the capability further, enticed Marlow adds. by the promise of cheaper launches on Skyrora is halfway through Canada’s C6 Launch wants to the back of U.S. efforts. a six-year research and devel- send nanosatellite payloads Edinburgh, Scotland-based opment program that it hopes into orbit from Shetland Skyrora was so inspired by Black will lead to an orbital launch in Space Centre with its 15-m, Arrow’s achievements that the start- 2022-23. The company is tak- two-stage launcher. up decided to fund the transport of ing a “step-by-step approach” the wreckage of the Black Arrow to derisking its technology development of UK regulation, launcher, which lay in waste in the development, building up to and he does not rule out per- Australian desert for decades, back more complex systems. In May, forming the first Skyrora XL to the UK for display at a museum in Skyrora conducted a static test- launch outside the UK. Farn borough, England. firing of its Skylark L suborbit- The company’s aim is to make “Black Arrow was lightweight and al launcher, which is capable the Skyrora XL agnostic to any cost-effective. It was an amazing of flying to altitudes of 100 km launch site. The system will es- British design,” Jack-James Marlow, (62 mi.) using a road-mobile sentially be road-mobile, with Skyrora’s head of engineering, tells launch complex. elements set up in containers, Aviation Week. He compares the Skylark L was originally de- minimizing the need to make Cold War-era launcher to the cars veloped as a technology test- physical changes to a launch developed by British company Lotus, bed for the Skyrora XL, but site to cater for the launcher. It a brand known for its approach to the company now plans to offer also means the launcher could developing lightweight sports cars. the launcher commercially as a be moved quickly to a different Like Black Arrow, the company’s platform for suborbital launch launch site if required. three-stage Skyrora XL launcher will payloads. Skyrora has 20 letters of in- use high-test peroxide (HTP) as an In early August, the company tent signed with satellite oper- oxidizer, a catalyst that stores more successfully launched its two- ators, and Marlow believes the easily than cryogenics components stage Skylark Micro 4-m-tall company could be conducting

and allows the rocket to be fueled for (13-ft.) suborbital rocket from C6 LAUNCH CONCEPT as many 16 launches a year longer periods in readiness for weath- a site in Iceland. Unfortunately, by 2030.

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

Rocket Companies Eye 2022 Launch the sustainer and booster stag- While Skyrora has been open will not say how many launches will its systems in-house. In particular, es were lost at sea. But the tests about its ambitions and milestones, be needed to break even. the company is looking to make use Date From British Launch Sites will inform the development of fellow Scotland-based launch com- “We’ve often had the discussion of rocket motors developed by Colo- Skyrora XL, a 24-m-tall rock- pany Orbex remains under the radar about [whether we should] be the rado-based Ursa Major Tech. > SKYRORA IS DEVELOPING A THREE-STAGE XL SATELLITE LAUNCHER et powered by nine internally as it targets first takeoff of its Prime hare or the tortoise, and a long time According to McCammon, this ap- developed Skyforce 3D-print- launcher from Sutherland, potential- ago we decided to be the tortoise,” says proach reduces the risks and costs > ORBEX HAS CONTRACTED FOR SIX SATELLITE LAUNCHES ed engines in the first stage ly as early as 2022. Orbex was one of Larmour. “The launcher will be ready of the launcher. A suborbital launch and a single Skyforce motor the recipients of funding from the when it is ready.” is envisaged for 2021, and orbital Tony Osborne London in the second. Skyrora says UK Space Agency (UKSA) in 2018 However, the company believes flights will follow. C6 also established the XL will put payloads of up to support takeoff from Space Hub it will be the first to launch from the a UK subsidiary, with an address in lmost 50 years after the UK er windows in the often unpre- to 315 kg (700 lb.) into polar Sutherland, and CEO Chris Larmour Space Hub Sutherland, ahead of Edinburgh in late July to support its developed a space launch ca- dictable British climate. and sun-synchronous orbits of says launcher development is mov- Lockheed Martin, which was contract- UK operations. Apability and then abandoned it, The use of HTP, says Marlow, about 500 km. ing ahead at the company’s sites in ed to pioneer launch from the site but Other entrants to the UK market a new era of UK space launch is beck- is part of Skyrora’s approach to Technologies for Skyrora XL Denmark and in the UK (AW&ST has yet to confirm details of the launch- include startup Black Arrow Space oning. Private companies, domestic ecofriendly launch. That also have been developed in-house, Feb. 25-March 10, 2019, p. 38). er it will use. Larmour says Orbex has Technologies, a company named af- and international, are pressing ahead includes the development of leaning on research and devel- Orbex’s Danish site is focused on had a major say in the shaping of the ter the Cold War-era British launcher, with research and development pro- a new fuel, Ecosene, an alter- opment facilities in Slovakia propulsion develop- grams that will allow them to conduct native to kerosene made from and Ukraine, “where overheads ment, while the compa- small-satellite launches from British waste recyclable plastics. “We are five times lower than in the ny’s Forres, Scotland, shores potentially as early as 2022. will have 45% less [carbon- UK,” says Marlow. “As a new facility performs man- The outlook is broad and diverse, dioxide] emissions per launch space company trying to get to ufacturing, structures, ORBEX CONCEPT with proposals for a mix of verti- than our equivalent competi- market with a six-year financial avionics and integra- cal, horizontal and balloon-based tors,” Marlow says. developmental plan, we have to tion work. The compa- launchers provided by a variety of “Our customers are becoming be innovative where we can,” ny is also establishing a well- established companies and inno- more and more environmentally he adds. test stand nearby on the vative startups, many of which have conscious, and they are launch- Ultimately, the plan is to de- former Kinloss military been inspired by the innovations de- ing environment-monitoring, sign, manufacture and launch air station. veloped for the Black Arrow during data-driven satellites. They everything from the UK. But Orbex’s 19-m-tall two- the 1960s. need that option to launch,” the company has not made a stage Prime launcher The government-funded Black he adds. final decision on a launch site will be able to place Arrow launched the UK’s Prospero The use of peroxide also en- and is maintaining discus- payloads of 100-200 satellite into orbit from the Austra- ables a stop-start capability sions with all the UK vertical kg into orbits from lian Outback in October 1971, but the for the third stage, allowing launch sites. Marlow notes that 220-1,250 km, and the program had already been canceled. trajectories to be adjusted for Skyrora’s progress on launcher company says it is 30% Ministers had balked at the cost of de- increased orbital accuracy, development is outpacing the lighter and 20% more veloping the capability further, enticed Marlow adds. efficient than industry by the promise of cheaper launches on Skyrora is halfway through Canada’s C6 Launch wants to equivalents. The Prime the back of U.S. efforts. a six-year research and devel- send nanosatellite payloads will use biopropane, a Edinburgh, Scotland-based opment program that it hopes into orbit from Shetland renewable fuel, and the Skyrora was so inspired by Black will lead to an orbital launch in Space Centre with its 15-m, launcher’s stages will be both recover- Sutherland facility. “The operational Orbex has secured launch commit- Arrow’s achievements that the start- 2022-23. The company is tak- two-stage launcher. able and reusable. concept is very much an Orbex con- ments from several satellite operators up decided to fund the transport of ing a “step-by-step approach” Despite the company’s stealthy cept. We drove the design of almost all for its two-stage Prime launcher. the wreckage of the Black Arrow to derisking its technology development of UK regulation, approach, it has secured six launch of the technical side,” he says. launcher, which lay in waste in the development, building up to and he does not rule out per- contracts and has “quite a strong Orbex is also studying potential which is planning a sea-based launch Australian desert for decades, back more complex systems. In May, forming the first Skyrora XL pipeline,” Lamour says. Along with launch from the Portuguese Azores of a two-stage vehicle. Ship launch is to the UK for display at a museum in Skyrora conducted a static test- launch outside the UK. receiving the UKSA funding, Orbex island chain. being proposed because it offers the Farn borough, England. firing of its Skylark L suborbit- The company’s aim is to make is confident about securing work Other launch providers looking at option to find new launcher locations “Black Arrow was lightweight and al launcher, which is capable the Skyrora XL agnostic to any through the Euro pean Space Agen- the UK include newcomer C6 Launch to avoid weather, increases security, cost-effective. It was an amazing of flying to altitudes of 100 km launch site. The system will es- cy’s Commercial Space Transporta- Systems, which announced in June and eliminates the need for land-based British design,” Jack-James Marlow, (62 mi.) using a road-mobile sentially be road-mobile, with tion Services initiative. that it plans to use the Shetland Space facilities that affect the environment. Skyrora’s head of engineering, tells launch complex. elements set up in containers, Development of Prime’s propulsion, Centre in Scotland as its primary UK-Spanish B2Space is proposing Aviation Week. He compares the Skylark L was originally de- minimizing the need to make an additive-manufactured motor of launch site. The Ontario-based start- lifting a three-stage solid-propellant Cold War-era launcher to the cars veloped as a technology test- physical changes to a launch which the first stage will use six, is up is chasing a niche market, focus- rocket in a sling with a stratospheric developed by British company Lotus, bed for the Skyrora XL, but site to cater for the launcher. It “moving along nicely,” says Larmour. ing on the responsive launch of nano- balloon to enable launch from an al- a brand known for its approach to the company now plans to offer also means the launcher could The company says it is the first com- satellite payloads of up to 30 kg into titude of 40 km. The company says developing lightweight sports cars. the launcher commercially as a be moved quickly to a different mercial launcher company in Europe sun-synchronous orbits of 600 km. a 150-kg payload could be delivered Like Black Arrow, the company’s platform for suborbital launch launch site if required. to use carbon-fiber tanks to hold liquid The company plans to start work on to a of 200-1,000 km. three-stage Skyrora XL launcher will payloads. Skyrora has 20 letters of in- oxygen. Guidance, navigation control the integration of the 15-m-long, two- Similar “rockoon”-based proposals use high-test peroxide (HTP) as an In early August, the company tent signed with satellite oper- and other avionics systems are under- stage launcher later this year, says are offered by startup Stratobooster. oxidizer, a catalyst that stores more successfully launched its two- ators, and Marlow believes the going testing as well. CEO Richard McCammon. C6 is elect- Horizontal launch services are being easily than cryogenics components stage Skylark Micro 4-m-tall company could be conducting Larmour says the company is not ing to use off-the-shelf components for proposed by Virgin Orbit with its and allows the rocket to be fueled for (13-ft.) suborbital rocket from C6 LAUNCH CONCEPT as many 16 launches a year in a race but is instead focused on es- the launcher rather than conducting LauncherOne vehicle, to be lofted from longer periods in readiness for weath- a site in Iceland. Unfortunately, by 2030. tablishing a sustainable business. He development of the entire rocket and a modified Boeing 747-400 airliner. c

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 53 ASK THE EDITORS Is the World Large Enough To Support Airbus, Boeing and Comac?

Aviation Week Beijing Bureau Chief Why would it take until the late either or both of the Western manu- Bradley Perrett responds: No ma- 2030s or later for China to knock facturers should be close to a next jor shift is likely to happen before Airbus or Boeing into the third spot? round of product renewal—moving the late 2030s or even the 2040s, Even if the Comac C919 proves to be Comac’s goalposts and requiring im- because Comac is far from ready to about as efficient in operation as provement in the C919. go head to head with the two West- the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 The Chinese-Russian Craic CR929 ern airframe companies. Predicting MAX—as it should be, on paper— widebody is now due for first deliv- how the competition will play out so the program is probably running at ery in 2028-29, so it faces much the far ahead is highly speculative, so the least 6-7 years behind the Neo and same problem. best that can be done is to mention a MAX. After entry into service, more By the 2040s, propulsion technolo- few factors. years will be needed to establish a gy may have changed. Aircraft and en- If Comac has a near monopoly in reputation for reliability and sup - gines may be much more integrated. the local market, it will have a base port. Production has to ramp up and Comac could be back to square one. cost must be gradually driven down. Yet Airbus and Boeing could be, too, Even if all went well from now on, and they would not have Chinese tax- by the time the C919 began to make payers’ money to spend on unusually progress in the international market, challenging development programs. c

HONEYWELL

production rate that will help it achieve the low costs it will need for competing elsewhere. On the other Could China Ban Airbus, Boeing but hand, a state company with a guar- anteed local market does not have Still Engage Western Engine-Makers? a lot of incentive to work hard at making money abroad. The Chinese Bradley Perrett responds: Yes, Chi- time of program launch for the ARJ21 Communist Party can address that nese commercial aircraft programs in 2002 and the C919 in 2008, such a to some extent. are already moving in that direction political risk would have seemed fanci- China could simply subsidize its by limiting opportunities for foreign ful. But China’s international behavior way into the market if its airliners are commercial airframes while leaving since 2013—at first called assertive- reasonably competitive. (Real duds those opportunities open for foreign ness, now increasingly called aggres- can’t be given away.) This raises ques- suppliers of engines and onboard sys- sion—must have moved the risk from tions about how the U.S. and Airbus tems. The idea is that when Comac the “fanciful” column to the “possible” partner countries would react to such gets a sale, Boeing and Airbus will column. A wild card in this outlook subsidies. Would they retaliate by bar- not, but CFM, Honeywell and oth- is whether European countries be- ring Comac from their markets? That er suppliers will because they are come as angry with China as the U.S. would depend on what trade agree- onboard the C919. Of course, it is is. European countries are still years ments are in place in future decades. intended that eventually the foreign behind the U.S. in hardening their at- But China’s international relations are engine and onboard system suppliers titudes toward China. c declining so fast that we must wonder also will have a more limited Chinese whether it will have access to West- market. China needs more time, how- The Aviation Week Network invites ern civil aeronautics technology in 20 ever, to produce domestic substitutes readers to submit questions to our years. Curtailment of Western supply, for these products. editors. Answers are published online especially for engines, would set back This rosy prospect for Comac and at AviationWeek.com. To access our the Chinese commercial aircraft ef- its suppliers disappears if foreign gov- answer archive or post a new question, fort many years. ernments order a halt to supply. At the go to: AviationWeek.com/asktheeditors

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PRODUCTS AND SERVICES ASK THE “Military is where the commercial EDITORS 30 More Years of business was 10 years ago,” Joyce Is the World Large Enough To Support said, with hundreds of engineers and research and development resources Airbus, Boeing and Comac? Traditional Power? being tasked with creating future gen- erations of military powerplants. In developing its new portfolio of Aviation Week Beijing Bureau Chief Why would it take until the late either or both of the Western manu- There are decades of life still left in jet propulsion commercial engines, GE Aviation Bradley Perrett responds: No ma- 2030s or later for China to knock facturers should be close to a next also explored new ways to make jor shift is likely to happen before Airbus or Boeing into the third spot? round of product renewal—moving John Morris New York them. It invested “billions of dol- the late 2030s or even the 2040s, Even if the Comac C919 proves to be Comac’s goalposts and requiring im- lars,” said Joyce, in manufacturing because Comac is far from ready to about as efficient in operation as provement in the C919. t is easy to write off jet propulsion The shift from commercial to and supply chains. “Additive manu- go head to head with the two West- the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 The Chinese-Russian Craic CR929 as “old,” even as GE Aviation re - defense had begun well before facturing may be the most disruptive ern airframe companies. Predicting MAX—as it should be, on paper— widebody is now due for first deliv- Ifreshes its whole portfolio of com- COVID-19: GE Aviation, for exam - technology that I’ve seen in the in- how the competition will play out so the program is probably running at ery in 2028-29, so it faces much the mercial engines for the next 20 years, ple, explained at last year’s Paris Air dustry in a long time,” he noted. “It’s far ahead is highly speculative, so the least 6-7 years behind the Neo and same problem. Pratt & Whitney works on the future Show that now that the commercial going to pay off a whole load more in best that can be done is to mention a MAX. After entry into service, more By the 2040s, propulsion technolo- road map for its geared turbofan side has proved the viability, afford- the next 20 years. This is going to be few factors. years will be needed to establish a gy may have changed. Aircraft and en- (GTF) and Rolls-Royce develops its If Comac has a near monopoly in reputation for reliability and sup - gines may be much more integrated. UltraFan as the basis for next-gener- the local market, it will have a base port. Production has to ramp up and Comac could be back to square one. ation airliners (see page 19). cost must be gradually driven down. Yet Airbus and Boeing could be, too, There is no doubt the COVID-19 Even if all went well from now on, and they would not have Chinese tax- pandemic will affect powerplant de- by the time the C919 began to make payers’ money to spend on unusually velopment over the next decade or so progress in the international market, challenging development programs. c as new aircraft programs are pushed to the right, airliners remain parked and passenger traffic takes perhaps 2-3 years to recover. With revenues hard hit by a collapse in sales and a slump in aftermarket activity, the engine manufacturers’ need to slash costs likely will have an impact on re- search and development into future HONEYWELL technologies, especially for commer- cial engines. “The 2020s will be the decade of productivity and cost-out, whereas production rate that will help it the 2010s were the decade of new achieve the low costs it will need for technologies and new programs,” says competing elsewhere. On the other Could China Ban Airbus, Boeing but Glenn McDonald, senior associate at hand, a state company with a guar- AeroDynamic Advisory. anteed local market does not have Still Engage Western Engine-Makers? “I don’t want to sound too dire, but a lot of incentive to work hard at our view is that we will probably see MTU AERO making money abroad. The Chinese Bradley Perrett responds: Yes, Chi- time of program launch for the ARJ21 a reduced pace in developing tech- Communist Party can address that nese commercial aircraft programs in 2002 and the C919 in 2008, such a nologies in commercial aerospace, to some extent. are already moving in that direction political risk would have seemed fanci- with a slowdown in new clean-sheet China could simply subsidize its by limiting opportunities for foreign ful. But China’s international behavior design and in materials technology,” ability and producibility of new ma- MTU Aero is developing new manu- way into the market if its airliners are commercial airframes while leaving since 2013—at first called assertive- McDonald adds. The focus will shift terials including ceramic matrix facturing techniques for blisks for reasonably competitive. (Real duds those opportunities open for foreign ness, now increasingly called aggres- instead to manufacturing processes, composites and technologies such as next-generation GTF engines. can’t be given away.) This raises ques- suppliers of engines and onboard sys- sion—must have moved the risk from cost reduction and efficiencies such as additive manufacturing, the military tions about how the U.S. and Airbus tems. The idea is that when Comac the “fanciful” column to the “possible” lower scrap rates. has the confidence to lead the march the best [real return on investment] partner countries would react to such gets a sale, Boeing and Airbus will column. A wild card in this outlook The manufacturers might be down, into new territory. that we’ve ever done.” subsidies. Would they retaliate by bar- not, but CFM, Honeywell and oth- is whether European countries be- but they are not out—and the military Technologies developed for com- The interruption of the commercial ring Comac from their markets? That er suppliers will because they are come as angry with China as the U.S. is riding to the rescue. Defense spend- mercial engines have enabled new market by COVID-19 might actually ac- would depend on what trade agree- onboard the C919. Of course, it is is. European countries are still years ing in the U.S. and Europe, especially military capabilities; in turn, mili- celerate the development of new tech- ments are in place in future decades. intended that eventually the foreign behind the U.S. in hardening their at- on developing sixth-generation fight- tary research and development will nologies, Pratt & Whitney President But China’s international relations are engine and onboard system suppliers titudes toward China. c er engines, is taking over from the enable even newer commercial en- Chris Calio tells Aviation Week (see declining so fast that we must wonder also will have a more limited Chinese commercial sector in leading the ap- gines decades into the future. It is a page 19). The pandemic has forced the whether it will have access to West- market. China needs more time, how- The Aviation Week Network invites plication of new technologies. “That’s virtuous cycle, GE Aviation President engine-maker to “really interrogate” ern civil aeronautics technology in 20 ever, to produce domestic substitutes readers to submit questions to our where the real technological advances and GE Vice Chairman David Joyce its technology road map and consider years. Curtailment of Western supply, for these products. editors. Answers are published online are happening,” says McDonald. “This told Aviation Week last year. Joyce is carefully where to invest, he says. c especially for engines, would set back This rosy prospect for Comac and at AviationWeek.com. To access our could be the decade where it pays off handing over leadership Sept. 1 to for- the Chinese commercial aircraft ef- its suppliers disappears if foreign gov- answer archive or post a new question, to have portfolios in defense as well as mer Embraer executive John Slattery Go to Marketplace.AviationWeek.com fort many years. ernments order a halt to supply. At the go to: AviationWeek.com/asktheeditors in commercial.” (see page 16). for more information.

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Can the Pentagon Spend More Smartly? By Steve Grundman

am surprised by the vigorous hand-wringing this sum- flect today’s bipartisan consensus on U.S. defense spending mer over the prospects for defense spending in a Dem- is likely to emerge before the midterm elections of 2022. If Iocratic-dominated government beginning in January the next administration and Congress fail to quickly stanch 2021. There’s every indication that the Democrats who may the health and economic catastrophe of the coronavirus come to office next year with meaningful power over -de pandemic, a progressive wave could well roll into Congress fense budgets subscribe to a bipartisan consensus that in January 2023 with a platform that prioritizes Americans’ defense spending is leveling off in real terms, just as planned at-home lives and livelihoods over the U.S. leadership role in the Trump administration’s defense program for 2021- in the world. Or the midterm election could activate revan-

25. Recent indications to the con- TOUCH OF LIGHT/WIKIMEDIA chist Tea Party sentiment to anchor trary are misleading; worse, they Republican recalcitrance against distract from what matters much Democratic governance with the more about this year’s election and familiar practice of trading off the the outlook for defense spending. Pentagon’s budget to blunt domes- Last month’s partisan rancor tic-spending initiatives and contain over the Defense Department’s taxes. Sound familiar? In each of budget has come to naught. On the the five budget years of the Obama left, the amendments of Sen. Bernie presidency after Republicans won Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Mark control of the House in 2010, the Pocan (D-Wis.) that would have re- congressional defense appropria- duced by 10% the national defense tions reduced the administration’s authorization for 2021 were defeat- budget requests for the Pentagon by ed by wide bipartisan majorities, a total of $115 billion. which would have been still larger Against the backdrop of today’s but for the implausibility of the mo- FACING FLAT BUDGET bipartisan consensus, the more sig- tions’ passage. From the right, off- nificant difference about defense the-record “experts” raising alarm spending between the two parties among investors about imagined GROWTH, THE MILITARY WILL has to do with the prospects for the plans to reduce the annual Pentagon productivity of those dollars: How budget to $550 billion—an implied REQUIRE STRATEGIC FOCUS, much national security can each rate of reduction not seen since the provide with a $740 billion defense end of the Korean War—succeeded NOT DISTRACTION AND budget? Where Democrats, in the only in reminding us of how easily words of former Undersecretary of rank expediency sometimes passes AMBIVALENCE. Defense Michele Flournoy, believe for insight on Wall Street. the military-technological competi- By contrast, the summer’s telling tion with China “must be [the Pen- indicator of the outlook for defense spending lies instead in tagon] leadership’s top priority,” Defense Secretary Mark the strikingly bipartisan $740 billion defense authorization Esper spent the week he released this year’s defense bud- bill that Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) brought to the House get defending the administration’s redirection of $4 billion floor. Not only did the bill receive a 56-0 vote out of the Armed from the Defense Department’s procurement accounts to Services Committee, but Smith, the committee’s chairman, fund the president’s border wall. Where Democrats, in the also chose to name it in honor of the committee’s retiring words of Biden’s former National Security Advisor Colin ranking member, Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Texas). Kahl, would put alliances and partnerships “at the top of More to the point, it is hard to find anything in the views the agenda,” Esper recently had to acknowledge that it of former Vice President Joe Biden and his campaign ad- will cost billions of dollars not currently in the Pentagon visors—or of the Democrats who lead defense committees budget to redeploy U.S. forces out of Germany in response on Capitol Hill—to suggest they harbor plans to reset the to Trump’s determination that Germany’s government is defense budget outlook. Politico even associated Biden “delinquent.” Facing flat budget growth, the Pentagon will with the slogan “Boost the defense budget” in its tally of require strategic focus, not distraction and ambivalence, presidential candidates’ positions. What one does find and alliance relations that leverage U.S. defense spending, among Democratic views of defense policy, however, is a not compound its costs. conviction that China poses a strategic challenge to U.S. If any hand-wringing is worth doing about politics and interests, the essential premise of today’s historically high defense spending, it would be better put toward building peacetime defense budgets and a view that stands in clear calluses against the hard work of increasing the produc- contrast to President ’s ambivalence over tivity of defense dollars than polishing old chestnuts about China’s military-strategic importance and his peculiar ad- how Democrats are soft on defense. c miration for President Xi Jinping. The defense budget is not impervious to our fraught poli- Contributing columnist Steve Grundman is principal of the consul- tics and economy, but no political realignment that could de- tancy Grundman Advisory and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST VIEWPOINT DISCOVER ANALYZE PLAN Can the Pentagon Spend More Smartly? FORECAST By Steve Grundman am surprised by the vigorous hand-wringing this sum- flect today’s bipartisan consensus on U.S. defense spending mer over the prospects for defense spending in a Dem- is likely to emerge before the midterm elections of 2022. If Iocratic-dominated government beginning in January the next administration and Congress fail to quickly stanch 2021 Commercial Fleet & MRO 2021. There’s every indication that the Democrats who may the health and economic catastrophe of the coronavirus come to office next year with meaningful power over -de pandemic, a progressive wave could well roll into Congress Forecast Ð Just Released! fense budgets subscribe to a bipartisan consensus that in January 2023 with a platform that prioritizes Americans’ defense spending is leveling off in real terms, just as planned at-home lives and livelihoods over the U.S. leadership role in the Trump administration’s defense program for 2021- in the world. Or the midterm election could activate revan-

25. Recent indications to the con- TOUCH OF LIGHT/WIKIMEDIA chist Tea Party sentiment to anchor trary are misleading; worse, they Republican recalcitrance against distract from what matters much Democratic governance with the more about this year’s election and familiar practice of trading off the the outlook for defense spending. Pentagon’s budget to blunt domes- Last month’s partisan rancor tic-spending initiatives and contain over the Defense Department’s taxes. Sound familiar? In each of budget has come to naught. On the the five budget years of the Obama left, the amendments of Sen. Bernie presidency after Republicans won Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Mark control of the House in 2010, the Pocan (D-Wis.) that would have re- congressional defense appropria- duced by 10% the national defense tions reduced the administration’s Predictive Intelligence authorization for 2021 were defeat- budget requests for the Pentagon by ed by wide bipartisan majorities, a total of $115 billion. which would have been still larger Against the backdrop of today’s but for the implausibility of the mo- FACING FLAT BUDGET bipartisan consensus, the more sig- to Drive Results tions’ passage. From the right, off- nificant difference about defense the-record “experts” raising alarm spending between the two parties among investors about imagined GROWTH, THE MILITARY WILL has to do with the prospects for the plans to reduce the annual Pentagon productivity of those dollars: How budget to $550 billion—an implied REQUIRE STRATEGIC FOCUS, much national security can each rate of reduction not seen since the provide with a $740 billion defense end of the Korean War—succeeded NOT DISTRACTION AND budget? Where Democrats, in the With Aviation Week Network’s Fleet & MRO Forecast, gain a only in reminding us of how easily words of former Undersecretary of rank expediency sometimes passes AMBIVALENCE. Defense Michele Flournoy, believe 10-year outlook to minimize risk and maximize revenue. for insight on Wall Street. the military-technological competi- By contrast, the summer’s telling tion with China “must be [the Pen- • Fleets, trends, and projections indicator of the outlook for defense spending lies instead in tagon] leadership’s top priority,” Defense Secretary Mark the strikingly bipartisan $740 billion defense authorization Esper spent the week he released this year’s defense bud- • Predictive view of market share bill that Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) brought to the House get defending the administration’s redirection of $4 billion floor. Not only did the bill receive a 56-0 vote out of the Armed from the Defense Department’s procurement accounts to • MRO future demand Services Committee, but Smith, the committee’s chairman, fund the president’s border wall. Where Democrats, in the also chose to name it in honor of the committee’s retiring words of Biden’s former National Security Advisor Colin ranking member, Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Texas). Kahl, would put alliances and partnerships “at the top of More to the point, it is hard to find anything in the views the agenda,” Esper recently had to acknowledge that it Take your business to the of former Vice President Joe Biden and his campaign ad- will cost billions of dollars not currently in the Pentagon next level. visors—or of the Democrats who lead defense committees budget to redeploy U.S. forces out of Germany in response on Capitol Hill—to suggest they harbor plans to reset the to Trump’s determination that Germany’s government is defense budget outlook. Politico even associated Biden “delinquent.” Facing flat budget growth, the Pentagon will with the slogan “Boost the defense budget” in its tally of require strategic focus, not distraction and ambivalence, For more information, visit presidential candidates’ positions. What one does find and alliance relations that leverage U.S. defense spending, aviationweek.com/forecasts among Democratic views of defense policy, however, is a not compound its costs. conviction that China poses a strategic challenge to U.S. If any hand-wringing is worth doing about politics and or call Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 interests, the essential premise of today’s historically high defense spending, it would be better put toward building Available for: or Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 peacetime defense budgets and a view that stands in clear calluses against the hard work of increasing the produc- contrast to President Donald Trump’s ambivalence over tivity of defense dollars than polishing old chestnuts about COMMERCIAL China’s military-strategic importance and his peculiar ad- how Democrats are soft on defense. c MILITARY miration for President Xi Jinping. The defense budget is not impervious to our fraught poli- Contributing columnist Steve Grundman is principal of the consul- BUSINESS tics and economy, but no political realignment that could de- tancy Grundman Advisory and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. HELICOPTER

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 13, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Constantly evolving technology, for a constantly evolving world.

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