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'The Fools Have Stumbled on Their Best Man by Accident': an Analysis of the 1957 and 1963 Conservative Party Leadership Selections

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'The Fools Have Stumbled on Their Best Man by Accident': an Analysis of the 1957 and 1963 Conservative Party Leadership Selections University of Huddersfield Repository Miller, Stephen David 'The fools have stumbled on their best man by accident' : an analysis of the 1957 and 1963 Conservative Party leadership selections Original Citation Miller, Stephen David (1999) 'The fools have stumbled on their best man by accident' : an analysis of the 1957 and 1963 Conservative Party leadership selections. Doctoral thesis, University of Huddersfield. This version is available at http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/5962/ The University Repository is a digital collection of the research output of the University, available on Open Access. Copyright and Moral Rights for the items on this site are retained by the individual author and/or other copyright owners. Users may access full items free of charge; copies of full text items generally can be reproduced, displayed or performed and given to third parties in any format or medium for personal research or study, educational or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge, provided: • The authors, title and full bibliographic details is credited in any copy; • A hyperlink and/or URL is included for the original metadata page; and • The content is not changed in any way. For more information, including our policy and submission procedure, please contact the Repository Team at: [email protected]. http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/ 'TBE FOOLS HAVE STLUvMLED ON TIHEIR BEST MAN BY ACCIDENT': AN ANALYSIS OF THE 1957 AND 1963 CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP SELECTIONS STEPBEN DAVID MILLER A thesis submitted to the University of Huddersfield in partial fulfilment of the requirementsfor the degreeof Doctor of Philosophy The Universityof Huddersfield June 1999 MHE FOOLS HAVE STUNIBLED ONT]HEIR BEST MAN BY ACCIDENT': AN ANALYSIS OF THE 1957AND 1963CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP SELECTIONS S.D. MILLER DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY 1999 g 1)66 gjýECi tc- LL Stephen Miller The University of Huddersfield Doctor of Philosophy 'The Fools Have Stumbled On Their Best Man By Accident': An Analysis of the 1957 and 1963 Conservative Party Leadership Selections Abstract This thesis assessesthe outcomes of the 1957 and 1963 Conservative Party Leadership Selections of Harold Macmillan and Sir Alec Douglas-Home. It analyses the two selections using an original analytical framework, that demonstrates the importance of both individual and situational criteria in determining the outcomes of leadership selections. The individual criteria are the party status of the candidates, and their actions and conduct during the selections.The situational criteria are the situation and circumstances surrounding the selections, the formal and informal aspects of the selection procedure used, and the candidates fulfilment of acceptability, electability, and governability. Acceptability, (the need to retain or maintain party unity), electability, (the need to be electable), and governability, (the ability to govern), are the three core situational criteria on which the candidatesare judged. This framework was developed to offer a full and inclusive explanation of the outcomes of the two leadership selections, because the existing analyses of leadership selections has a restrictive approach, and does not offer a conclusive and systematicanalysis. The thesis demonstrates that the outcomes of the 1957 and 1963 leadership selections have clear parallels and distinctions in their outcomes. Both selections produced a stop-gap leader in a time of crisis for the Conservative Party. However, the situations were clearly distinct, and this was influential in the outcome. The 1957 selection occurred following a crisis over foreign policy, while the 1963 selection occurred during a deep-seated period of domestic crisis and upheaval. In January 1957, the Conservatives had three years before a general election had to be held, while in October 1963, a general election was imminent within twelve months. The selection procedure was influential in both selections. The informal aspects of the procedure were more influential in 1957, while the procedure had become more formalised in 1963, and this prepared the way for the establishmentof formal leadership elections in the Conservative Party in 1965. The choice of Macmillan and Home was made because of the circumstances in which the selections occurred, and because they fulfilled the three core criteria more conclusively than the other candidates. In both outcomes, acceptability was clearly the most important core criteria because the selections occurred at a time of severe disunity in the party, and this deemed party unity as the crucial task of the new leader. In 1957, Macmillan was selected as he fulfilled the requirements of the situation better than R. A. Butler, the other candidate. In 1963, Home became leader becauseof the weaknessesapparent in the other candidates, and was the compromise candidateto retain party unity. This thesis concludes that the wider individual and situational criteria set the terms of reference on which the core situational criteria of acceptability, electability, and governability are judged. The most important wider criteria were the candidates' actions during the selection, the selection procedure, and the situation that the selection occurred in. This demonstrates the utility of the analytical framework developed in the study. I CONTENTS Abstract List of Tables and Diagrams Acknowledgments ii Introduction The Area For Investigation The Research For The Study The Method Of Analysis Chapter One 5 The Analvtical Framework The Interactionist Interpretation of Political Leadership The Analytical Framework The Analytical Framework and Party Leadership Selection in Britain: 1957-1997 Chapter Two 47 The Conservative Part3: and the Selection of Its Leaders The SeIection of Conservative Party Leaders: 1902-1965 The Functions of Conservative Party Leaders The Formal Aspects of the Selection Procedure The Informal Networks of Communication ii The Outcomes: Situational Parallels and Distinctions Chapter Three 74 The Candidates: Party Status and Personalities The Candidates' Party Status The Candidates' Personalities Chapter Fou 114 The Suez Crisis and The 1957 Leadership Selection: The Candidates' Actions and Conduct Butler Macmillan Chapter Five 149 The Suez Crisis and the 1957 Leadership Selection: The Situational Interpretation The Situation and Its Requirements The Selection Procedure: Formal Aspects and Informal Networks of Communication The Core Situational Criteria: Acceptability, Electability, and Governability Chapter Six 182 The 1963 Leadership Selection: III The Candidates' Actions and Conduct Butler Home Maudling Hailsham Chapter Seven 219 The 1963 Leadership Selection: The Situational Interpretation The Situation and Its Requirements The Selection Procedure: Formal Aspects and Informal Networks of Communication The Core Situational Criteria: Acceptability, Electability, and Governability Conclusion 265 The Outcomes: Assessment The 1957 Leadership Selection The 1963 Leadership Selection The Outcomes: Situational Parallels and Distinctions Biblio2rat)hv 277 List of Tables and Dia2rams Tables 1. The Acceptability, Electability, and Governability Criteria 33 and Party Leadership Selection in the British Conservative and Labour Parties: 1957-1997 2. Totals of Winners of LeadersfiýpSelections, 1957-1997,35 andtheir fulfilment of the Acceptability,Electability, and GovernabilityCriteria Diagrams 1. The Selection of Party Leaders: Analytical Criteria 14 2. Levels of Progression from 'Outsider' to 'Insider' Status 17 in a Political Party. ii Acknowledgments I would like to thank the following for permission to consult and quote from the archival material that has been the central research for this study: the Trustees of the Estate of Harold Macmillan, First Earl of Stockton, for permission to consult and quote from the Macmillan Diaries at the Bodleian Library, Oxford; The Master and Fellows of Trinity College, Cambridge for the use of extracts from the Papers of R. A. Butler; Sir Alistair Cooke, the former Director of the Conservative Political Centre for pern-dssion to consult the ConservativeParty Chairman'sOffice files at the ConservativeParty Archive, Bodleian Library, Oxford; and Sir NEchael Simmonds,the current Director of the Conservative Political Centre for permission to quote from Conservative Party Archive material in this study; The Borthwick Institute of I-Estorical Research, Universityof York, for permissionto use materialfrom the Papersof the First Earl of Halifax; andthe permissionof the Public RecordOffice for the use of Prime Minister's Office files: "Crown copyright material is reproduced by permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationary Office". I would also like to thank the following archivists and librarians for their invaluableassistance during my researchof the archivalmaterial: Dr. Martin Maw, the former Conservative Party Archivist; Jill Davidson, the current Conservative Party Archivist; Nia Mai Williams, the Archivist of the Papersof Harold Macmillan;the staff of the Modem Papers Reading Room, Bodleian Library, Oxford; Jonathan Smith, Manuscript Cataloguer,Trinity College Library, Cambridge;the staff of the Wren Library, Trinity CollegeLibrary, Cambridge;and ChristopherWebb, the archivist, and the staff of the Borthwick Institute of I-listoricalResearch, University of York. iii My thanksgo to the staff of University of HuddersfieldCentral Library; Sue White, the HumanitiesLibrarian; and the staff of the Inter-Library Loan Servicefor providing me with valuable assistanceduring
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