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CTC Sentinel 6:8 (2013) AUGUST 2013 . SPECIAL ISSUE . VOL 6 . ISSUE 8 Contents Syria: A Wicked Problem for All By Bryan Price INTRODUCTION 1 Syria: A Wicked Problem for All By Bryan Price SPECIAL REPORTS 4 Turkey’s Tangled Syria Policy By Hugh Pope 9 Israel’s Response to the Crisis in Syria By Arie Perliger 11 Iran’s Unwavering Support to Assad’s Syria By Karim Sadjadpour 14 Hizb Allah’s Gambit in Syria By Matthew Levitt and Aaron Y. Zelin 18 The Battle for Qusayr: How the Syrian Regime and Hizb Allah Tipped the Balance By Nicholas Blanford 23 The Non-State Militant Landscape in Syria By Aron Lund 28 From Karbala to Sayyida Zaynab: Iraqi Fighters in Syria’s Shi`a Militias By Phillip Smyth 32 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts Syrian rebels stand guard as protesters wave Islamist flags during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo in March 2013. - AFP/Getty n august 26, 2013, Secretary from those that were truly “wicked.”3 In of State John Kerry called their interpretation, wicked problems the recent use of chemical feature innumerable causes, are weapons outside of Damascus tough to adequately describe, and by O“undeniable” and a “moral obscenity.”1 definition have no “right” answers. This is the latest chapter in an already In fact, solutions to wicked problems complex civil war in Syria, a crisis are impossible to objectively evaluate; About the CTC Sentinel that Kerry’s predecessor called a rather, it is better to evaluate solutions The Combating Terrorism Center is an “wicked problem” for the U.S. foreign to these problems as being shades of independent educational and research policy establishment.2 That term good and bad.4 institution based in the Department of Social was introduced 40 years ago by two Sciences at the United States Military Academy, professors of urban planning who were By anyone’s account, the Syrian civil West Point. The CTC Sentinel harnesses trying to identify what differentiated war satisfies all of the criteria of a the Center’s global network of scholars and hard but relatively ordinary problems wicked problem. Like most crises, the practitioners to understand and confront issues surrounding the Syrian conflict contemporary threats posed by terrorism and are complex and interrelated, and there other forms of political violence. are multiple competing foreign policy 1 John Kerry, “Remarks on Syria,” U.S. Department of State, August 26, 2013; Ben Hubbard and Hwaida Saad, The views expressed in this report are those of “Syrian Rebels Accuse Government of Chemical Attack,” 3 Horst W.J. Rittel and Melvin M. Webber, “Dilemmas the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, New York Times, August 21, 2013. in a General Theory of Planning,” Policy Sciences 4 (1973). the Department of the Army, or any other agency of the U.S. Government. 2 “The President and the Secretary of State,” 60 Minutes, 4 John C. Camillus, “Strategy as a Wicked Problem,” Har- January 27, 2013. vard Business Review, May 2008. 1 AUGUST 2013 . SPECIAL ISSUE . VOL 6. ISSUE 8 interests at stake for the United States. The second camp is more skeptical about some important questions that so far As a result, there is no shortage of the rebel opposition and believes that have received limited attention. This disagreement about the way forward the United States has wisely exercised edition purposefully avoids proposing for the United States in responding to restraint throughout the crisis, any policy prescriptions. Rather, it the conflict. especially given the uncertainty of what identifies and analyzes the central a post-Assad Syria may look like. Retired actors and their strategic interests in an The discourse on U.S. policy options Ambassador Ryan Crocker, former chief effort to inform the debate surrounding for Syria features two contradictory diplomat to Syria from 1998-2001 and no this wicked problem. approaches. One camp argues that stranger to challenging situations after an effective solution requires direct serving in both Iraq and Afghanistan, Selected authors in this edition were American involvement, including likened the current crisis in Syria to the asked to view the Syrian civil war military intervention, and the removal massive wildfires raging in the American through the strategic lenses of some of President Bashar al-Assad from West: “You can’t put them out. You can’t of the conflict’s most important state power. While the United States called stop them…That’s kind of like Syria. We actors; others were asked to “deep- for al-Assad to step down as early can’t stop that war…What we can do, or dive” into the complicated non-state as August 2011,5 supporters of this should do, is everything possible we can militant landscape and profile the most approach complain that U.S. actions to to keep it from spreading.”11 important groups fighting in Syria. end the violence and remove al-Assad While this issue does not exhaust all have not matched its rhetoric.6 Even Many who side with Crocker’s relevant angles of the conflict, grouping this summer’s decision to send limited assessment suggest that the urge to these different perspectives in a single arms in support of the rebel cause is, “do something” should be tempered issue will hopefully advance the collective in their view, a case of too little, too by the United States’ first-hand understanding of the Syrian crisis and late.7 Those wanting more American knowledge of the tradeoffs, limitations, provide insight into the behavior and involvement in Syria argue that an al- and uncertainty associated with military policies of the relevant actors.13 Assad victory would increase Iran’s intervention during the last decade of influence, embolden Hizb Allah, and war. In a recent letter to Congressman Central Themes and Pressing Concerns risk the United States’ reputation as a Eliot Engel, the chairman of the Joint Syria poses several significant security superpower and its credibility among Chiefs commented that “the use of U.S. concerns for the United States and its allies (and enemies) in the region.8 military force can change the military allies. First, there are concerns about Detractors already point to the U.S. balance [in Syria]…But it cannot resolve Syria’s chemical weapons. Two months failure to stem humanitarian abuses the underlying and historic ethnic, prior to the most recent use of chemical by the Syrian government, including religious, and tribal issues that are weapons in August, a U.S. report al-Assad’s alleged use of chemical fueling this conflict.”12 in June concluded that the al-Assad weapons despite U.S. warnings that regime had used chemical weapons such use constituted crossing a “red The purpose of this article is two-fold. against rebel forces multiple times in line.”9 Others look at the United States’ First, it clearly outlines the intent the previous year.14 No U.S. ally is more inability to get other major powers, behind publishing a special issue of concerned about this development than especially Russia, on board to end the the CTC Sentinel focused exclusively on Israel. As Arie Perliger explains in his crisis quickly. Although no one argues the Syrian crisis. Second, it frames article, controlling Syria’s chemical that a post-Assad Syria will be a panacea the central themes surrounding the weapons stockpile is a critical concern for peace in the region, proponents conflict, identifies future implications for Israeli security officials. Israel has of this camp think that the benefits of for political violence in the region, and already conducted at least one attack intervening outweigh the costs.10 highlights several notable findings from inside Syria to prevent these weapons the issue’s contributors. from falling into the wrong hands, and 5 Barack Obama, “Statement by President Obama on the more unilateral attacks can be expected Intent of this Issue Situation in Syria,” White House, August 18, 2011. if Israel feels positive control of these 15 6 Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “Lawmakers Call for Stronger US This special edition of the CTC Sentinel weapons is jeopardized in any way. Action in Syria,” New York Times, April 28, 2013. looks at the Syrian conflict from 7 Michele Kelemen, “U.S. Supplies for Syrian Rebels May multiple angles, including analyses 13 For example, the issue does not include a separate Be Too Little, Too Late,” National Public Radio, June 14, that closely examine the threats article on the important role Russia plays in the crisis. 2013; Tom A. Peter, “How Syria’s Conflict Became More posed by violent non-state actors in For analyses that address Russia’s strategic interests, see Complicated as US Debated Arms for Rebels,” Christian the region. The contributors address Radha Iyengar and Brian Fishman, The Conflict in Syria: Science Monitor, June 14, 2013. key issues and debates while raising An Assessment of US Strategic Interests (Washington, D.C.: 8 Barry Pavel, “What Was Obama Thinking?” Foreign New America Foundation, 2013); Anna Borshchevskaya, Policy, May 1, 2013. Michael Doran and Max Boot, “Five Reasons to Intervene “Russia’s Many Interests in Syria,” The Washington In- 9 Benjamin J. Rhodes, “Statement by Deputy National in Syria Now,” New York Times, September 26, 2012. stitute for Near East Policy, January 24, 2013; “Russia’s Security Advisor for Strategic Communications Ben 11 Stephanie Gaskell, “Interview with Ryan Crocker: As- Syrian Stance: Principled Self-Interest,” Strategic Com- Rhodes on Syrian Chemical Weapons Use,” White sad Will Prevail ‘Yard by Bloody Yard,’” Defense One, Au- ments 2012:31 (2012). House, June 13, 2013; James Ball, “Obama Issues Syria gust 5, 2013; Ryan Crocker, “Containing the Fire in Syria,” 14 Rhodes.
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