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The Water Quality in Lake Kasumigaura Has Been Deteriorating Since 1970'S [15, 22]

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The Water Quality in Lake Kasumigaura Has Been Deteriorating Since 1970'S [15, 22] The Dynamic Optimal Policy to Improve the Water Quality of Lake Kasumigaura•õ Yoshiro HIGANO* and Takayuki SAWADA** 1. Introduction The water quality in Lake Kasumigaura has been deteriorating since 1970's [15, 22]. The local government has constructed the sewerage system, and enacted the ordinance to prevent the deterioration of water quality. As a result, the water quality has been improved, but is still being deteriorated. The average depth of Lake Kasumigaura is only 4 meters and 56 rivers in total flow into the Lake. This is the root cause for the rapid deterioration of water quality. Furthermore, both the rapid population and economic growth in the catchment area due to the suburbaniza tion of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area in 1980's have made the deterioration more serious. The deterioration has had the following negative impacts on the living and the produc tion environment around the lake: a) impacts on the living: stink of the water bloom, decrease in the quality of the drinking water; b) impacts on the production: death of a large number of bred carp, decrease in the catch of fish; c) impacts on the sight-seeing resource: closure of swimming place, injury of the beauty of the lake. The study concerning Lake Kasumigaura has increased in number as the water quality deteriorated. The subjects of the studies are confined to the ecosystem of the lake (Goda, et al. [6]), the relation between the load of the pollutant which leads the deterioration of the water quality and the economic activities in the catchment area (Hosomi, et al. [9]), the technology of water purification, or the evaluation of the water quality (Aoki [1], Naito [24]). Each study analyses its own subject from each view point. But, the analysis is not sufficient for a substantial improvement of the water quality since they consider neither the total system including both the socio-economic system in the catchment area and the ecosystem of the lake and rivers nor the changes that would occur in a long range of the time •õ This is a revision of the paper presented at the 32nd Annual Meeting of the Japan Section of the Regional Science Association International (Nihon Chiiki Gakkai) held on Oct., 1995, in Rissho University, Tokyo. The authors are grateful to the official chairmen and discussants of the day who were so kind as to make valuable comments on an earlier draft of this paper. They also appreciate minute and helpful comments by anonymous referees. * University of Tsukuba ** SAP Japan 75 76 Y. HIGANO ano T. SAWADA horizon. The deterioration of the water quality will still continue in future because the catchment area which is a part of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area will be urbanized more rapidly, and the level of socio-economic activities will grow up. There are many studies focusing on the close linkage between the products and the pollutants based on the expanded (inter-regional) I/O analysis (e.g., [14], [20], [231), all of which take account of the Principle of Materials Balance (Ayres, et al. [2]). Namely, the environment is the source of the inputs of natural resources or energies into the production process of the human beings and it is also the destination of the wastes which are residuals of the production and the consumption (eg. Owen [26], Nijkamp [25], Fukuoka [5], Smil [28], ect.). The series of inter-related production processes make difference between the values of input and output of each process (Kohno and Higano [18], Higano [8]). On the other hand, the materials are conserved through the production and consumption processes and the same amount of wastes are discharged into the environment . It must be noted that the deterioration of the Lake will follow the Principle of Materials Balance, too. Pullutants once discharged by the production and consumption activities in the catchment area will flow into the lake finally. Therefore, they will be accumulated (though few will be resolved naturally), and will deteriorate the water quality of the lake unless the (accumulated) pollutants in the lake will be ever removed by the amount which surpasses the amount of the pollutants ever flowing into the lake. In this study, we analyse the dynamic coptimal policy to improve the water quality of the lake considering both the total ecological system in and around the lake and the situational changes over a long period of time. The point of the analysis is that not only the capital accumulation in the region but also the accumulation of pollutants in the lake are optimally controlled so as to maximize the value of the products and the water quality of the lake. 2. The framework of the model We specify two sub models and one function in order to analyse the optimal policy to improve the water quality of Lake Kasumigaura. Figure 1 shows the skeleton of the model Fig. 1 The skeleton of the model. Dynamic Optimal Policy to Improve the Water Quality of Lake Kasumigaura 77 Table 1. Kinds of the sources of the pollutants and the policy instruments ([8] [18] [21] [25]), The ecosystem model describes how the pollutants are changed and moved in the lake and the rivers. The socio-economic model describes the social and economic activities in the catchment area and the relationship between the activities and the emission of pollutants. Table 1 shows kinds of the sources of the pollutants and the policy instruments. We assume two types of control-indirect or direct control-of the water quality of the lake. The indirect control is made by reducing either the pollutants emitted or the activity causing the pollutants, i.e., it means control of the sources of the pollutants. On the other hand, the direct control is made by reducing the pollutants in the lake directly. Both types of control are implemented by the local government. The sources of the pollutants have two types, too. One is called-pointed source of the pollutants, e. g. households, factories, etc. The other is called-nonpointed source of the pollutants, e.g., forest, farm land, etc. The latter has the following characteristics ([31]): 1) it covers wide area; 2) the pollutants emitted are moved by the natural forces, e. g., by rain, wind, etc; and 3) we cannot identify who emits the pollutants. So, it is difficult to control the emission by the nonpointed sources of the pollutants indirectly ([7], [27]). Land use planning is effective to control the land use causing the pollutants, and converts it into another land use emitting less pollutants. The valuation function describes how the inhabitants in the catchment area make a trade-off between the benefits of the improvement of the water quality of the lake and the increase in the value added. The optimal policies are derived so as to maximize the valuation function subject to the structural equations which describe both the ecosystem and socio-economic system. 3. The specified model 3.1 Ecosystem model We divide the lake into 4 sections ([6]). The total mass of pollutants in section i in period t is defined as the net stock of the pollutants in section i in period t -1 plus emission by the social activities plus the net inflow of the pollutants from the other sections minus the direct improvement of dredging of bottom sludge or collecting water bloom by the local government: 78 Y. HIGANO ano T . SAWADA αit=(1-x)αit-1+rit+Σj∈iQji・Cjt-1-Σ j∈iQij・Cit-1-R・kGAt, (1) in whichƒ¿i t: total mass of the pollutants in section i in period t, ri t: total load of the pollutants emitted by the social activities in period t, cit: density of the pollutants in section i in period t, kCAt: capital of the local government used for the direct abatement of the pollutants in period t, x: coefficient of the natural decay of the lake, Qij: total mass of water moving from section i to section j, R: abatement coefficient. 3.2 Socio-Economic Model The mass of the pollutants which are loaded in the lake through the rivers is defined as the gross pollutants emitted from the pointed and nonpointed sources minus the pollutants removed at the sources of the pollutants by the indirect controls such as sewerage system , combined treatment septic tank, treatment facilities, etc: pt+l=Pxt+Ez1t+Fz2t+Gz3t+Hz4t+Bnt-DkAt, (2) in which Pt: total mass of the pollutant emitted by the socio-economic activities in period t, xt: production in period t, z1t: population using sewerage system in period t, z2t: population using combined treatment septic tank in period t, z3t: population using septic tank in period t, z4t: population using human waste treatment facilities in period t, nt: area of nonpointed sources in period t, kAt: stock of the purifying plant available in period t, P, B, E, F, G, H: coefficient of the pollutant emission, D: coefficient of purification. Taking account of both the natural dissolution in the rivers and soil and the effect of the subsidy for using foods less polluting the water quality of the lake, we define the total mass of the pollutants which finally flows into the lake as follows: rt=(1-a)pt-f-IkFPt-JkFAt-Kt3t, (3) in which a: coefficient of the natural decay of the rivers, kFPt: production of cultivating fishery in period t, kFAt: stock of the pollution abatement plant of the cultivating fishery in period t, t3t: subsidy for the cultivating fishery which uses food containing lower nitrogen and phosphorus in period t. The equations (2) and (3) describe the accumulation of pollutants in the lake .
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