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Requires Subscription International Journal of Strategic Property Management ISSN 1648-715X / eISSN 1648-9179 2018 Volume 22 Issue 3: 157–167 https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.1540 IMPACT OF INFILL DEVELOPMENT ON PRICES OF EXISTING APARTMENTS IN FINNISH URBAN NEIGHBOURHOODS Hannele AHVENNIEMI1,*, Kyösti PENNANEN1, Antti KNUUTI1, Anne ARVOLA1, Kauko VIITANEN2 1 VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland 2 Department of Real Estate, Planning and Geoinformatics, Aalto University School of Engineering, Espoo, Finland Received 21 October 2015; accepted 27 June 2017 Abstract. Popularity of infill development is increasing because of the environmental benefits and cost saving potential it provides, which relate to the possibility to use existing infrastructure and services. However, the impact of infill develop- ment on value of existing properties has not been studied to a sufficient extent. Therefore, the aim of our study is to ana- lyse whether infill development affects the prices of existing apartments. We carried out statistical analysis based on data from seven case neighbourhoods, and prices of more than 6000 housing transactions from one decade. The results of our analysis do not support the hypothesis of infill development affecting positively existing housing prices, but neither did the study show a significant negative effect. Both amenity effect and negative externalities may provide explanations as to why property values do not change due to infill development. Keywords: infill development, housing prices, urban neighbourhood, property value, price development. Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.1540 Introduction Because of the challenges posed by growing cities more opment might occur when residents fear that the com- focus today is put on developing existing neighbourhoods munity does not benefit from the development or, even with infill development (for example Ooi & Le, 2013;Haa - worse, the new development might have a negative impact land & Bosch, 2015). Several studies have shown the envi- by worsening the amenities of the neighbourhood or by ronmental benefits of infill construction or transit orient- resulting in negative value development of existing dwell- ed development, such as decreasing energy consumption ings (for example Matthews, Bramley, & Hastings, 2015). and related smaller carbon footprint from transport (for Even if fear of decreasing property values is a common example Clark, 2013; Nahlik & Chester, 2014; Glaeser & reason behind the claims in planning practice, the impact Kahn, 2010). Another observed benefit of infill develop- of new development on existing housing has not been suf- ment is the cost-effectiveness, as the already existing in- ficiently studied (Seppälä, 2013). frastructure allows developing a neighbourhood with only Our contribution to this research field is to examine, moderate investment (Nykänen et al., 2012; Biddle, Ber- by using case studies, whether new housing developments toia, Greaves, & Stopher, 2006). affect the value of existing apartments in Finnish neigh- Even if a large number of economic and environmen- bourhoods. Earlier studies, which are presented in sec- tal benefits of infill development have been proven, and tion 1, mainly focus on different type of real estate mar- promoting infill development has been presented as one ket (metropolitan cities in the U.S. and Asia) or different of the targets of the housing policy of the national gov- housing types (such as single-family houses) and therefore ernment of Finland (Ministry of the Environment, 2016), our research is among the first ones to study the impact of new housing development is often, however, opposed by infill development on value of dwellings in Nordic urban residents of the neighbourhood. Resistance to infill devel- neighbourhoods. *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected] Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by VGTU Press This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unre- stricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. 158 H. Ahvenniemi et al. Impact of infill development on prices of existing apartments in Finnish urban neighbourhoods 1. Literature review better view, whereas building age has the opposite effect (Tse & Love, 2000). Good condition of the building and 1.1. Residential property market availability of an elevator are also supposed to increase Before studying the impact of infill development on prop- housing prices significantly (Hülagü, Kızılkaya, Özbekler, erty value, it is important to understand the specific char- & Tunar, 2015). acteristics of real estate as a commodity and the basics of Location-specific attributes are related to the sur- property valuation theories. The specific nature of residen- rounding neighbourhood and environment of the prop- tial real estate market derives from the fact that housing erty. According to Lönnqvist (2015) these location related as a commodity differs greatly from other commodities: attributes can be grouped as public goods, externalities and First, the decision to buy housing is not only based on amenities. A public good is a freely available good, such as rational choice but also on emotions, and therefore dif- nature or public park The consumption of this good does ficult to measure in monetary terms. Second, apartments not decrease the possibility of others to consume it. Exter- are indispensable commodities, and therefore always de- nalities can be either positive (such as high-quality archi- manded. And third, apartments are heterogenic and they tecture) or negative (such aspollution or congestion due to always differ from each other in terms of location and improved traffic infrastructure), and the effect is caused to other characteristics. Housing as a good is called a differ- a third, external party. The third group, amenities, com- entiated good. This category of goods consists of a diversity prises a large variety of attributes of the neighbourhood, of products that differ in characteristics in various ways such as features of the environment and services available but are so closely related in consumers’ minds that they in the area. A large number of studies examine the impact are considered as one good (Day, 2001). Other charac- of different location-specific characteristics on property teristics of the real estate market, worth mentioning, are values. A summary of the impact of neighbourhood char- the significantly high transaction costs and asymmetric acteristics, which are also relevant for infill development, information. are presented in the section below. Basic theories on real estate valuation build on the According to Krause and Bitter (2012), people are will- theory of Von Thünen explaining the farmland value al- ing to pay a price premium for elements related to “com- ready in 1860s, and on Alonso’s (1964), Muth’s (1969) and pact” development, which seems plausible in the light of Mill’s (1967) monocentric city model theory. The underly- the following findings: Vicinity of public transport has ing idea of the monocentric city model is that real estate been identified as an important attribute positively affect- prices are developed based on a bidding process which ing property values (Debrezion, Pels, & Rietveld, 2007; pushes prices up in attractive locations. Central business Gibbons & Machin, 2005; McMillen & McDonald, 2004; districts are often considered as attractive locations, but Kay, Noland, & DiPetrillo, 2014; Zhang, Meng, Wang, & improved transport infrastructure makes it more attrac- Xu, 2014), although some studies indicate an insignifi- tive to live close to stations (Fejarang, 1994) or highways cant correlation (Thamrongsrisook, 2011; Forrest, Glen, (Baum-Snow, 2007). Hence, because of increasing mobil- & Ward, 1996; Zhang, Meng, Wang, & Xu, 2014; Jun, ity and income, densities in central districts have not only 2012). Similarly, proximity and accessibility of services been continuously growing, but instead, emerging sub- have been pointed out as amenities increasing the willing- centres have given rise to the development of polycentric ness to pay for housing (Litman, 2014; Cortright, 2009). cities (for example Bertaud, 2004). Shops, schools and railway stations often have a positive The hedonic pricing methodology introduced by impact on housing prices (Brennan, Olaru, & Smith, 2014; Rosen in the 1970s enable an easier way to understand the Wen, Zhang, & Zhang, 2014; Kong, Yin, & Nakagoshi, theory of property value formation. According to Rosen 2007; Des Rosiers, Lagana, & Thériault, 2001). However, (1974), the price of a differentiated good is determined the impact of some amenities, such as airports and open by the combination of the implicit prices of the different air shopping centre, might be seen as more contradictory characteristics. When applying this theory to real estate because of their negative externalities (Kholdy, Muhtaseb, it is suggested that the price of a real estate will differ & Yu, 2014; Espey & Lopez, 2000). Also the high impor- from the price of another based on the additional unit tance of landscape factors has been discovered in several of a characteristics existing in one real estate compared studies: factors which have been identified as positive are to the other. vicinity of green
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