Youthstart Mid-Term Evaluation Main Report July 2013
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YouthStart Mid-term Evaluation Main Report July 2013 Submitted to: And By: Roland V. Pearson, Jr. (International Team Leader) Caterina Giordano (International Team Member) Daudet Nsimba (National Consultant - DRC) El Hadji Niasse (National Consultant - Senegal) Habte Asfaw Teferi (National Consultant - Ethiopia) Samuel Ssenyimba (National Consultant - Uganda) YOUTHSTART_MIDTERM_Annexes_0713_ENG Table of Contents List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................ 4 Program Data Sheet ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 7 Scope and Objectives of the Evaluation ..................................................................................................... 13 Evaluation Approach and Methodology ..................................................................................................... 14 Program Profile and Context ...................................................................................................................... 16 Program Description and Background, Including Program Expected Result .......................................... 16 Current Program Implementation Status ............................................................................................... 19 Current Program Financial Status ........................................................................................................... 19 EVALUATION QUESTION No. 1: RELEVANCE AND DESIGN ........................................................................ 20 Alignment with Partner Country Youth Inclusive Finance Priorities ...................................................... 20 Complementarity with Ongoing UNCDF Interventions .......................................................................... 25 Quality of Program Design ...................................................................................................................... 27 Promoting Global Learning Related to Youth Financial Services ............................................................ 30 Integration of Gender in the Program Design ........................................................................................ 31 EVALUATION QUESTION No. 2: EFFICIENCY OF PROGRAM MANAGEMENT ............................................. 33 Program Staff Performance .................................................................................................................... 33 Quality of Technical Assistance ............................................................................................................... 36 Program Governance at Headquarters, Regional and Country Levels ................................................... 38 Quality of Program Monitoring ............................................................................................................... 39 EVALUATION QUESTION No. 3: EVIDENCE of INCREASED CAPACITY and ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE at the MICRO LEVEL ........................................................................................................................................ 41 Achievements and Correspondence to Priorities and Needs of Partner Organizations......................... 41 Contribution to Increased Capacity of FSPs and YSOs ............................................................................ 45 Influence on the Sustainability of Partner FSPs and YSOs ...................................................................... 47 Increasing the Capacity of FSPs and YSOs to Meet the Specific Needs of Young Women and Girls ...... 49 EVALUATION QUESTION No. 4: INFLUENCE at the MACRO LEVEL (POLICY, STRATEGY, LEGAL and REGULATORY FRAMEWORK) ...................................................................................................................... 51 Influencing Key Stakeholders to Make Relevant YFS Policy Changes ..................................................... 51 Likelihood of Policy Improvements in Youth Financial Inclusion ............................................................ 52 2 YOUTHSTART_MIDTERM_Annexes_0713_ENG EVALUATION QUESTION No. 5: EVIDENCE OF INCREASED ACCESS TO SERVICES among LOW-INCOME YOUTH ......................................................................................................................................................... 54 Extent to which FSPs Are Meeting the Needs of Low-Income Youth, Particularly Girls ......................... 55 Evidence of Increases in Market Size ...................................................................................................... 58 Evidence of Greater Competition in the Market for YFS ........................................................................ 58 Evidence of Improved Financial Capability among Youth, and Young Women in Particular ................. 60 EVALUATION QUESTION No. 6: POTENTIAL for SCALING UP and REPLICATION ....................................... 62 UNCDF’s Role as Promoter of Youth Financial Inclusion ........................................................................ 62 Role of Partnerships in UNCDF’s Influencing Youth Inclusive Finance ................................................... 63 EVALUATION QUESTION No. 7: SUSTAINABILITY ....................................................................................... 65 Contribution to Financial Sustainability and Outreach of FSPs and YSOs .............................................. 65 Prospects for Remaining Active in Youth Financial Services................................................................... 74 Evidence of a Business Case for Youth Financial Services ...................................................................... 76 CONCLUSIONS and RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................. 79 Budget Implications ................................................................................................................................ 85 List of Tables Table 1: Summary of Program Financial Performance .............................................................................. 19 Table 2: YouthStart Responsibilities for YPM, RTAs and CTAs ................................................................... 26 Table 3: Summary Performance in respect of Key Program Indicators ..................................................... 41 Table 4: Impact of the 'ACSI' Effect ............................................................................................................ 43 Table 5: Average FSP Key Performance Ratios 2009 to 2012 .................................................................... 68 Table 6: Summary of FSPs Financial and Operational Performance .......................................................... 70 Table 7: FSP Classification by YS Performance ........................................................................................... 72 Table 8: FSP Classification by ROA and YS performance ............................................................................ 73 Table 9: YS Performance vs. Deposits/Total Assets ................................................................................... 77 Table 10: Sample FSP Quarterly Reporting Format ................................................................................... 81 List of Figures Figure 1: Talking Past Each Other .............................................................................................................. 23 Figure 2: Reasons Why the Linked Model is Not Working & May Not Work in Future ............................ 46 Figure 3: PEACE Market Segmentation Model........................................................................................... 50 Figure 4: Complexities of Delivering YFS Outcomes .................................................................................. 56 Figure 5: The Sustainability Conundrum .................................................................................................... 57 3 YOUTHSTART_MIDTERM_Annexes_0713_ENG List of Annexes (Annexes appear in a separate document.) Annex 1: Terms of Reference Annex 2: Program Results and Resources Framework Annex 3: Completed Evaluation Matrix Annex 4: List of persons interviewed and list of projects sites visited Annex 5: Focus Group Discussion Reports Annex 6: Bibliography Annex 7: Mission work plans Annex 8: Guide to Financial Ratio Definitions List of Acronyms AEMFI Association of Ethiopian Microfinance Institutions CBE Commercial Bank of Ethiopia CGAP Consultative Group to Assist the Poor CTA Country Technical Advisor CYFI Child and Youth Finance International FGD Focus Group Discussion FIPA Financial Inclusion Practice Area FSP Financial Services Provider GDP Gross Domestic Product GTP Growth and Transformation Plan (Ethiopia) LDC Least Developed Country LDF Local Development Finance (Practice) MCF MasterCard Foundation MEDA Mennonite Economic Development Associates MFI Microfinance Institution MIS Management Information System MOU Memorandum of Understanding NFS Non-financial Services OCSICO Oromia Credit and Saving Institution (Ethiopia) PALPS Programme d’appui a la Lettre De Politique Sectorielle Microfinance PAR Portfolio at Risk PBA Performance Based Agreement