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Annual Investment Review - 2017 Written by Peter Lazaroff, CFA, CFP® Director of Investment Research

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Annual Investment Review - 2017 Written by Peter Lazaroff, CFA, CFP® Director of Investment Research Annual Investment Review - 2017 Written by Peter Lazaroff, CFA, CFP® Director of Investment Research 540 Maryville Centre Drive, Suite 105 • St. Louis, Missouri 63141 • plancorp.com Phone: 636.532.7824 • Toll Free: 1.888.220.1163 • Email: [email protected] A Framework for In this newsletter: Making Portfolio Changes • A Framework for Making Portfolio Changes ............................. 1 • Stop Watching the Stock Market ................ 2 When was the last time you made a change in your portfolio? How long did it take you to make the decision? What factored into your decision? • Understanding Confirmation Bias .............. 3 • Disadvantages of Individual Bonds ............ 4 Most individual investors spend more time planning a vacation or choosing a refrigerator than they do making investment decisions. • Reviewing 2016 (Chart) ............................. 6 Unfortunately, professional money managers aren’t immune from • When Fees Destroy Diversification ............8 similar tendencies. • An Examination of Risk ...........................10 Exacerbating the problem is the investment business, which is all about selling people what’s in demand. Each year approximately 1,800 new funds are launched despite the fact that there are already 27,000 mutual funds, ETFs, and hedge funds available in the United States.¹ This isn’t a new phenomenon. Whatever has done well in the recent past leads to a surge in investor demand. Wall Street is happy to create products to meet that demand and make profits for themselves. In the 1990s it was technology funds. Following the tech bubble burst, it was market neutral hedge funds. The proliferation in gold and commodities funds came right at the peak of a commodity super cycle. In the aftermath of the Financial Crisis, liquid alternatives that are designed to be lowly correlated to traditional stock/bond portfolios became in vogue. The investment business (as described above) is very different from the investment profession, which is all about helping people make good decisions and capture excess returns over the long run. It is our job to sort through the flood of new products, the constant noise of the news cycle, and varying updates to research on asset pricing – all to help find solutions that give our clients the best chance of realizing their goals. When we evaluate a portfolio change, we like to think in the context of Warren Buffett’s 20-slot punch card. Buffett says: “I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only twenty slots in it so that you had twenty punches – representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime. And once you’d punched through the card, you couldn’t make any more investments at all. Under those rules, you’d really think carefully about what you did, and you’d be forced to load up on what you’d really thought about. So you’d do so much better.” A big part of successful investing is avoiding mistakes and this framework reduces the opportunity for performance chasing or reactionary moves while highlighting only your best ideas. Equally important, this framework emphasizes a patient process and long-term mindset. We can use any product in the world, but we rarely find a solution that is better than our own after fees and taxes. Although we don’t make frequent changes to our portfolios, there is a tremendous amount of work that goes into the continuous due diligence process. 1 2017 Annual Investment Review cont'd... Understanding Confirmation Bias Every week we are presented with a new strategy or to enhance portfolio efficiency, and fine tune our fund provider. This is on top of regular due diligence portfolio exposures. The hypothesis had nothing to on our existing strategies and holdings. Site visits, do with outsmarting the market. Similarly, the change Traditional finance models assume that investors problematic because these types of questions tend meetings, phone calls, and reviewing research are has nothing to do with current market conditions or always make perfectly rational decisions based on to be constraining in that the only way to answer all part of the high level of activity that goes into our view on future market movements. all available information, but behavioral finance them is with supporting data rather than more building a portfolio to meet our clients’ needs. We have spent nearly a full year testing our hypothesis recognizes the mistakes we make as a result of comprehensive data. Research has also shown² that At Plancorp, we are about to make a change to our through research, statistical analysis, interviews with cognitive and emotional biases. simply asking confirmatory questions can lead to a false sense of confirmation. equity allocation for the first time in several years. academics, and more fund provider meetings than you One of the biggest biases among professional and This change was born out of a hypothesis that we can possibly imagine. The end result will be an even individual investors is known as confirmation bias, which The primary reason we suffer from confirmation bias could lower costs, decrease our number of holdings lower-cost and more efficient portfolio than before. is the tendency to seek out information that supports is that our biological hardwiring makes it is easier to your beliefs and ignore information that contradicts it. understand confirming data, particularly when the To better understand how this occurs, below is a disconfirming data is negatively framed – consider how variation of a popular logic puzzle¹ that uses four cards much easier to comprehend the statement “All Greeks Stop Watching the Stock Market to test a simple rule: “If the card has a vowel on one side, are mortal” versus “All non-Greeks are non-mortals.” then it must have an even number on the other side.” Consequently, investors (both professionals and Which two cards would you turn over to test this rule? individuals) spend most of their time looking for The Digital Age has made access to stock market data Rolling Performance for the S&P 500 (1926-2016) Most people choose A and 4 because these are the cards strategies that “work” or evidence that supports their and real-time portfolio values increasingly easy. The existing investment philosophy. problem with easier access to real-time market data is Positive Negative capable of confirming the statement, but confirming that investors can lose sight of the big picture as their Daily 53% 47% evidence doesn’t prove anything – the 4 card has no There isn’t anything wrong with reviewing evidence mental time horizons shorten to match the frequency of ability to invalidate the hypothesis. Flipping the 7 card, that supports your investment philosophy, but a Monthly 62% 38% feedback rather than that of their planning time horizon. however, could provide valuable disconfirming significant portion (if not the majority) of your Quarterly 68% 32% evidence – a vowel on the other side means not all cards efforts should be dedicated to looking for evidence Loss aversion is a behavioral bias that makes loss- with vowels have an even number on the other side. that conflicts with your way of thinking. That is es hurt about twice as much as a similar sized gain 6 Months 74% 26% Much like in the card example above, investors tend to what a good evidence-based investment approach makes us feel good – the result is that investors tend 1 Year 79% 21% gather confirming evidence when making investment is all about. to make poor decisions as a consequence of trying to decisions rather than evaluate all available information. avoid the pain of a relative or absolute loss. 5 Years 88% 12% We believe that a quality decision-making process The impact of confirmation bias is even stronger with requires good supporting evidence, but the presence 10 Years 94% 6% a existing belief since you are more likely to quickly Myopic loss aversion is the idea that the more we of evidence that conflicts with your investment accept evidence that supports that existing belief and evaluate our portfolios, the higher our chance of seeing 20 Years 100% 0% philosophy isn’t a bad thing either. The important closely scrutinize evidence that challenges it. a loss and, thus, the more susceptible we are to loss thing is you keep an open mind because evidence Most investors have a multi-decade time horizon aversion. Additional research¹ shows that investors Investors also tend to ask questions in which a tends to cut in multiple directions and understanding whether they are just beginning to save, in the middle who frequently check their portfolio value take a less positive response would confirm our beliefs. This is all perspectives reduces the chances of error. than optimal amount of risk and earn less money. of their careers, or currently in retirement. However, evaluating your portfolio in quarterly or even annual On the other hand, investors that check their intervals is making an evaluation as if you have a If the card has a vowel on one side, then it must have an even number on the other side. portfolios less frequently are more likely to find gains short-term planning horizon. and, thus, less likely to make bad decisions stemming from loss aversion. We aren’t suggesting that people should only look at their portfolios once every ten years – although we Using historical returns on the S&P 500, you have a wouldn’t discourage it – but the worst behaved investors 47% chance that the market will be down on any given we encounter are those that are evaluating the stock day. However, if you were to wait longer and look at market and/or their portfolios over short time periods. monthly returns, that percentage drops to 38%.
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