The Caretaker Election

JULIA 2010 The caretaker election

Edited by Marian Simms and John Wanna Published by ANU E Press The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at http://epress.anu.edu.au

National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry

Title: Julia 2010 : the caretaker election / edited by Marian Simms and John Wanna. ISBN: 9781921862632 (pbk.) 9781921862649 (eBook) Series: ANZSOG series Notes: Includes bibliographical references. Subjects: Gillard, Julia. Elections--Australia--2010. Political campaigns--Australia--21st century. Australia--Politics and government--21st century. Other Authors/Contributors: Simms, Marian. Wanna, John. Dewey Number: 324.70994

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Cover design and layout by ANU E Press

Printed by Griffin Press

Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia Contents

Acknowledgments...... ix Contributors...... xi Abbreviations...... xiii

1 . The Caretaker Election of 2010: ‘Julia 10’ versus ‘Tony 10’ and the onset of minority government ...... 1 Marian Simms and John Wanna

Part 1. Leaders, Ideologies and the Campaign 2 . Diary of an Election...... 11 Marian Simms 3 . Bad Governments Lose: Surely there is no mystery there. . . . 33 Rodney Cavalier 4 . The Ideological Contest...... 49 Carol Johnson

Part 2. The Media and the Polls 5 . The New Media and the Campaign ...... 65 Peter John Chen 6 . To the Second Decimal Point: How the polls vied to predict the national vote, monitor the marginals and second-guess the Senate ...... 85 Murray Goot 7 . Debates, Town-Hall Meetings and Media Interviews. . . . 111 Geoffrey Craig 8 . May the Less Threatening Leader of the Opposition Win: The cartoonists’ view of election 2010...... 121 Haydon Manning and Robert Phiddian

v Part 3. The Parties’ Perspectives 9 . The 2010 Federal Election: The Liberal Party ...... 147 Brian Loughnane 10 . The Australian Labor Party...... 155 Elias Hallaj 11 . The Greens...... 163 Andrew Bartlett

Part 4. The States and Regions 12 . New South Wales...... 173 Elaine Thompson and Geoff Robinson 13 . Victoria ...... 183 Nick Economou 14 . South Australia...... 191 Dean Jaensch 15 . The Northern Territory...... 197 Dean Jaensch 16 . Tasmania...... 201 Tony McCall 17 . The Australian Capital Territory...... 211 Malcolm Mackerras 18 . Queensland ...... 217 Ian Ward 19 . Western Australia at the Polls: A case of resurgent regionalism ...... 231 Narelle Miragliotta and Campbell Sharman 20 . Rural and Regional Australia: The ultimate winners?. . . . . 239 Jennifer Curtin and Dennis Woodward

vi Part 5. Policies and Issues 21 . Managing Gender: The 2010 federal election ...... 251 Marian Sawer 22 . Immigration Issues in the 2010 Federal Election ...... 267 James Jupp 23. The Influence of Unions and Business in the 2010 Federal Election: Claims of ‘slash and burn’ and ‘still no response and no answers’ ...... 279 John Wanna 24 . Environmental Issues and the 2010 Campaign ...... 291 Geordan Graetz and Haydon Manning 25 . Religion and the 2010 Election: Elephants in the room. . . . 303 John Warhurst

Part 6. Election Results 26 . The Results and the Pendulum ...... 315 Malcolm Mackerras 27 . Electoral Behaviour in the 2010 Australian Federal Election . 341 Clive Bean and Ian McAllister 28 . Seventeen Days to Power: Making a minority government. 357 Brian Costar

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