JULIA 2010 The caretaker election JULIA 2010 The caretaker election Edited by Marian Simms and John Wanna Published by ANU E Press The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at http://epress.anu.edu.au National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Julia 2010 : the caretaker election / edited by Marian Simms and John Wanna. ISBN: 9781921862632 (pbk.) 9781921862649 (eBook) Series: ANZSOG series Notes: Includes bibliographical references. Subjects: Gillard, Julia. Elections--Australia--2010. Political campaigns--Australia--21st century. Australia--Politics and government--21st century. Other Authors/Contributors: Simms, Marian. Wanna, John. Dewey Number: 324.70994 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design and layout by ANU E Press Printed by Griffin Press This edition © 2012 ANU E Press Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia Contents Acknowledgments . ix Contributors . xi Abbreviations . xiii 1 . The Caretaker Election of 2010: ‘Julia 10’ versus ‘Tony 10’ and the onset of minority government . 1 Marian Simms and John Wanna Part 1. Leaders, Ideologies and the Campaign 2 . Diary of an Election . 11 Marian Simms 3 . Bad Governments Lose: Surely there is no mystery there . 33 Rodney Cavalier 4 . The Ideological Contest . 49 Carol Johnson Part 2. The Media and the Polls 5 . The New Media and the Campaign . 65 Peter John Chen 6 . To the Second Decimal Point: How the polls vied to predict the national vote, monitor the marginals and second-guess the Senate . 85 Murray Goot 7 . Debates, Town-Hall Meetings and Media Interviews . 111 Geoffrey Craig 8 . May the Less Threatening Leader of the Opposition Win: The cartoonists’ view of election 2010 . 121 Haydon Manning and Robert Phiddian v Part 3. The Parties’ Perspectives 9 . The 2010 Federal Election: The Liberal Party . 147 Brian Loughnane 10 . The Australian Labor Party . 155 Elias Hallaj 11 . The Greens . 163 Andrew Bartlett Part 4. The States and Regions 12 . New South Wales . 173 Elaine Thompson and Geoff Robinson 13 . Victoria . 183 Nick Economou 14 . South Australia . 191 Dean Jaensch 15 . The Northern Territory . 197 Dean Jaensch 16 . Tasmania . 201 Tony McCall 17 . The Australian Capital Territory . 211 Malcolm Mackerras 18 . Queensland . 217 Ian Ward 19 . Western Australia at the Polls: A case of resurgent regionalism . 231 Narelle Miragliotta and Campbell Sharman 20 . Rural and Regional Australia: The ultimate winners? . 239 Jennifer Curtin and Dennis Woodward vi Part 5. Policies and Issues 21 . Managing Gender: The 2010 federal election . 251 Marian Sawer 22 . Immigration Issues in the 2010 Federal Election . 267 James Jupp 23. The Influence of Unions and Business in the 2010 Federal Election: Claims of ‘slash and burn’ and ‘still no response and no answers’ . 279 John Wanna 24 . Environmental Issues and the 2010 Campaign . 291 Geordan Graetz and Haydon Manning 25 . Religion and the 2010 Election: Elephants in the room . 303 John Warhurst Part 6. Election Results 26 . The Results and the Pendulum . 315 Malcolm Mackerras 27 . Electoral Behaviour in the 2010 Australian Federal Election 341 Clive Bean and Ian McAllister 28 . Seventeen Days to Power: Making a minority government 357 Brian Costar vii.