JULIA 2010 The caretaker election JULIA 2010 The caretaker election Edited by Marian Simms and John Wanna Published by ANU E Press The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Email:
[email protected] This title is also available online at http://epress.anu.edu.au National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Julia 2010 : the caretaker election / edited by Marian Simms and John Wanna. ISBN: 9781921862632 (pbk.) 9781921862649 (eBook) Series: ANZSOG series Notes: Includes bibliographical references. Subjects: Gillard, Julia. Elections--Australia--2010. Political campaigns--Australia--21st century. Australia--Politics and government--21st century. Other Authors/Contributors: Simms, Marian. Wanna, John. Dewey Number: 324.70994 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design and layout by ANU E Press Printed by Griffin Press This edition © 2012 ANU E Press Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia Contents Acknowledgments . ix Contributors . xi Abbreviations . xiii 1 . The Caretaker Election of 2010: ‘Julia 10’ versus ‘Tony 10’ and the onset of minority government . 1 Marian Simms and John Wanna Part 1. Leaders, Ideologies and the Campaign 2 . Diary of an Election . 11 Marian Simms 3 . Bad Governments Lose: Surely there is no mystery there . 33 Rodney Cavalier 4 . The Ideological Contest . 49 Carol Johnson Part 2. The Media and the Polls 5 . The New Media and the Campaign . 65 Peter John Chen 6 . To the Second Decimal Point: How the polls vied to predict the national vote, monitor the marginals and second-guess the Senate .