A Primer on Complexity: an Introduction to Computational Social Science
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
A Primer on Complexity: An Introduction to Computational Social Science Shu-Heng Chen Department of Economics National Chengchi University Taipei, Taiwan 116 [email protected] 1 Course Objectives This course is to enable the students of social sciences to have some initial experiences of computational modeling of social phenomena or social processes.In this regard, it severs as the beginning course for preparing students of social sciences to have computational thinkingof social phenomena.On the other hand, the course is also to serve as a beginning course for the students of computer science or students with a strong taste for program- ming andmodeling who are, however, very curious of social phenomena, and want to see whether they can develop their talents in the axis of social sciences. 2 Course Description National Chengchi University is internationally well-known for its social sciences, but what are the natures of social sciences, and, to what extent, do they differ from sciences? Are these differences fundamentally or just superficially? The current social sciences are divided into economics, business, management, political sciences, sociology, psychology, public administration, anthropology, ethnology, religion, geography, law, international relations, etc. Is this division necessary, logical? When a social phenomenon is presenting itself to us, such as populism, polarization, segregation, racism, exploitation, injustice, global warming, income inequality, social exclusiveness or inclusiveness, green energy promotion, anti-gouging legislation, riots, tuition freeze, mass media regulation, finan- cial crisis, nationalism, globalization, will it identify itself: to which sister discipline it belongs? Economics? Psychology? Ethnology? If the purpose of social sciences is to enhance our understanding (harness) of social phenomena, and hence to enable us to develop a good conversation quality among cit- izens of the society from which the social phenomena emerge, then we probably need to promote good conversations among social scientists first. This is the so-called social science in an interdisciplinary context. Without sufficient conversations among social sci- entists first, we are afraid that the students of the current social sciences with so many disciplines may learn a lot, but in a rather fragmental way. 1 Therefore, while entering into different gates of the social science castle, maybe it is useful to have a more generic, comprehensive, jargon-free pursuit of what social science exactly is. What are the rudimentary elements? What are their generic properties? This fundamental pursuit is the focusing subject of this course, which actually makes social science a coherent family. The course provides two answers to this fundamental pursuit.First, as the title of the course suggests, social sciences deal with social phenomena with different degrees of complexity. Some examples from the magnum opus of Thomas Schelling (1921-2016) “Micro Motives and Macro Behavior” (Schelling, 1978) are sufficient enough to illustrate whatwe mean by complexity in social phenomena. In Week 5, we will review his fa- mous work on the segregation phenomenon observed in many metropolitan areas, such as New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. Why do people of different races tend to be lumped together in residence? Is it because they are not tolerant enough for different eth- nic groups? If individually they each are quite tolerant of the unlike people, would that be surprising if collectively they don’t seem so? This segregation example shows us one lesson: knowledge of individuals may help us little in predicting what would happen ’as a whole’, and this is what makes social science intriguing, fascinating, and complex. However, just in a verbal way, the word complexity does not automatically unveil all deep functioning mechanisms underlying complex social phenomena.To know the “chemistry” which can add up all simple things in a complex form, we need to simulate these social phenomena. Without going deep into the social process and successfully sim- ulating the observed phenomena, our eyes and minds are frequently under great expo- sure to being deceived by what may seem obvious. Nevertheless, as we shall experience in this class (say the Game of Life, Week 2), paper and pencils are far less than enough for simulating social phenomena, even though what we need to consider is just a small-scale primitive society. Hence, here comes our second response (answer) to the fundamental pursuit, i.e., com- putational social science, the subtitle of the class. The idea is to take full advantage of the great advancement in high-performance computing to tackle complex social phenomena. Having said that, this class does not intend to challenge or scare away those students with programming phobia, most likely, students from social science departments. By no means we will teach anything in programming seriously. In fact, the current devel- opment of computational social science already makes it much more approachable with so many easy-to-use software (languages), and NetLogo is one of them (Railsback and Grimm, 2011; Hamill and Gilbert, 2015; Wilensky and Rand, 2015). In this class, we shall use NetLogo to make students have a quick grasp of the three rudimental elements of all social phenomena, namely, agents, also called actors, decision- makers (their personal traits and behavioral rules), social embeddedness (institutions, cultures, laws, history, spatial surroundings), and social interactions. As we shall see in many examples, aided by NetLogo, these three rudimental elements not only are able to simulate many interesting social phenomena but can also overarch various sister disci- plines of the social science family. At the end of the class, we shall leave all students a chance to answer the questions which we begin with. First, is it really a fundamental difference between science and social science? Second, is it really necessary to have so many different treatments for the same social phenomena with so many different disciplines, from A to Z; would it be better if we can have a coher- 2 ent or united framework so that we would be only interestedin things by its relevancy not by its disciplines. Third, can we say something about the future of social science, in particular, in light of shaping a good society? 3 Class Schedule General Specification: 1. The student is expected to spend 9 hours per week on this course, which means a 6-hour preparation and review work plus 3-hour class attendance. 2. The assignment (the reading and the computer simulation exercises) will be given at the end of each ppt of the lecture. 3. The student is required to reflect upon the lecture received the week and propose questions, comments, or observations before the lecture of the next week. This “weekly report” needs to be submitted to the web as indicated in the class. The late submission will not be accepted. Weekly Progress: 1. Week One (Lectured on Feb 24, 2021): Background, History, and All Warm-Ups: (a) Let us begin the story with a genius, John von Neumann (1903-1957) (b) When Social Science become computational and Computer Science become biological? (c) A fascinating history of computational social science 2. Week Two (Lectured on March 3, 2021): John Conway and His Game of Life: CSS coming to the 1970s (a) How simple things get so complex and hard to predict? (b) Can Life extend without limit? Can you win the award? (c) It is all in NetLogo 3. Week Three (Lectured on March 10, 2021): Stephen Wolfram and New Kind of Science: CSS coming to the 1980s (a) Butterfly Effect: Sensitivity to small changes (b) Small is Big: There is nothing unimportant. (c) Identify new types of social phenomena: Systematic way doing social science (d) A first simulation for interesting social dynamics: On the edge of chaos (e) NetLogo, Computer Science, Cellular Automata 4. Week Four (Lectured on March 17, 2021): Sustainable Development and Ecological Balance 3 (a) Uri Wilensky and his perception of science education: Low threshold and high ceiling (b) Wolves and sheep in meadows (c) Alfred Lotka (1880-1949) and Vito Volterra (1860-1940) (d) Predatory-and-Prey Dynamics: Lotka-Volterra Equation (e) NetLogo Models Library: Sample Models/Biology, Wolf Sheep Predation (Wilen- sky and Rand, 2015, Chapter 4) 5. Week Five (Lectured on March 24, 2021): Segregation in Metropolitan Areas (a) Thomas Schelling: The 2005 Nobel Laureate in Economics (b) Why people with different ethnic groups choose different residential concen- tration? (c) Thomas Schelling and his Segregation Models (d) NetLogo Models Library: Sample Models/Social Science, Segregation 6. Week Six (Lectured on March 31, 2021): Tutorial on Netlogo Programming (lectured by Dr. Tina Yu). Please bring your own computer. 7. Week Seven (Lectured on April 7, 2021): Public Health and Epidemiology (a) AIDS, SARS, and Bird Flu (b) NetLogo Models Library: Sample Models/Social Science, AIDS 8. Week Eight (Lectured on April 14, 2021): Efficiency and Equity: The El Farol Bar Problem (a) Brian Arthur and the El Farol Bar (b) Congestion and idle capacity: Too much and too little (c) Social Exclusion (d) NetLogo Models Library: Sample Models/Social Science, El Farol 9. Week Nine(April 21, 2021) Midterm Exam 10. Week Ten (Lectured on April 28, 2021): Traffic in the High Way (a) Drivers’ behavior and Traffic (b) NetLogo Models Library: Sample Models/Social Science, Traffic Basic, Grid, 2 lines 11. Week Eleven (Lectured on May 5, 2021): Gossip and Social Networks 4 (a) Gossip: Everybody like it so long as it is not about you (b) Social network: Your Facebook, Skype,... (c) How fast gossip can go: Significance of social networks (d) NetLogo Models Library: Sample Models/Social Science, Rumor Mill 12. Week Twelve (Lectured on May 12, 2021): Time and Hero: Who Made Whom? (a) Reynold Boyd and His Flocking Project (b) Swarms and Their Intelligence (c) Who made a hero? Nobody, it is all self-organizing! (d) NetLogo Models Library: Sample Models/Biology, Flocking 13.