2016 Mid Year Population Estimates

2016 Mid-year Population Estimates Aberdeen City

May 2017

RESEARCH AND INFORMATION

Briefing Paper (May 2017)

2016 Mid-year Population Estimates: Aberdeen City

This briefing paper describes the 2016 mid-year population estimates (MYEs) for Aberdeen City. MYEs are population estimates produced annually by National Records of Scotland (NRS) for Scotland and its administrative areas. The 2016 MYEs were published by NRS on 27 April 2017 and give an estimate of the population on 30th June 2016. The 2016 MYEs build on previous estimates, which are updated to account for population change (births, deaths, migration and other change) during the period between 1st July 2015 and 30th June 2016.

This paper gives an overview of the population of Aberdeen City at 30th June 2016, including its age and sex structure. It also looks at time series data to give an overview of population trends and changes over time. A brief summary of population projections is also included. Comparisons with other local authorities and Scotland are presented where appropriate. Population estimates can be used for a variety of purposes including resource allocation and planning of services.

For more information on this paper, please contact: Research and Information Team Office of Chief Executive Aberdeen City Council Old Town House, Broad Street 1st Floor, Room 1-3 Aberdeen, AB10 1FY  03000 200 291  [email protected]

Previous briefing papers have included the following topics:

 Household projections (2014 based)  Population projections (2014 based)  Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in Aberdeen City

It is intended that these papers will be used by Council services and, where appropriate, our Community Planning partners to assist policy development and wider service delivery. These papers, and other statistical reports, can be found in the ‘Stats and Facts’ section of the Aberdeen City Council website: www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/statsandfacts

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Summary

 The estimated population in Aberdeen City on 30th June 2016 was 229,840. This equates to 4.2% of Scotland’s total population of 5,404,700.  The estimated population of Aberdeen City fell by 510 (0.2%) between mid-2015 and mid- 2016.  The main reason for the drop in population was negative net migration - between 2015 and 2016, 969 more people moved out of the City than moved into the City.  There are more women than men in Aberdeen City, with women making up 50.3% of the population.  The median age in Aberdeen City is 36 years. In Scotland the median age is 41 years.  Compared to Scotland, Aberdeen City has a relatively high working-age population (69% compared to 63%) and a relatively low pensionable-age population (16% compared to 20%). The proportion of children (under 16 years) is lower in Aberdeen City than in Scotland (15% compared to 17%).  In the 35 years since 1981, the population of Aberdeen City has increased by 8.2% (from 212,494 in 1981 to 229,840 in 2016). The population of Scotland has increased by 4.3% in the same period.  While there was an overall increase in population during this time, there were periods where the population of the City fell (e.g. between 1995 and 2004 the population decreased by 12,060) as well as periods of increase. The largest sustained increase was between 2004 and 2015 (from 207,820 to 230,350).  Between 1981 and 2016 the male population increased more than the female population resulting in a closing of the gap between males and females. In 1981 there were 9,484 more females than males in Aberdeen City and by 2016 there were only 1,598 more females than males.  The largest absolute increase in population has been in the 25-29 year age group which has increased by 8,749 (54.7%).  The largest proportionate increase in population has been in the oldest age groups, with the number of people aged 90 years or over increasing by 171.0% between 1981 and 2016.  Population density – there are an average of 1,238 people per square kilometre in Aberdeen City.

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2016 Mid-year Population Estimates, Aberdeen City

1. Introduction

Mid-year population estimates (MYEs) are published every year by National Records of Scotland (NRS). This paper reports on the 2016 MYEs, published by NRS on 27th April 2017. These give an estimate of the population at 30th June 2016.

1.1. Brief overview of methods The population estimates are based on the Census and are updated annually to account for population change in the period from 1 July to 30 June. The two main contributors to population change are natural change (births minus deaths) and net migration* (the difference between long-term moves into and out of the UK or local areas). Other changes (e.g. changes in prisoner and armed forces population) also contribute, but these tend to make up a smaller proportion of the changes.

The starting point for the estimates is the resident population on 30th June the previous year. This population is then aged on by one year (e.g. 1 year-olds become 2-year olds). Those who have been born during the 12 month period are added on and those who have died are taken off. These figures are then adjusted to take into account any movement in and out of the area (net migration) and also any other changes to the population (e.g. changes in armed forces population). Full details on the methods used can be found at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-estimates/mid-year-2016/16-mid- year-pe-method-guide.pdf

*Note: migration can be difficult to estimate as information on migratory moves is not registered in the UK. As a result proxy measures (National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR); Community Health Index (CHI); and International Passenger Survey (IPS)) are used.

2. Total population

2.1. Aberdeen City On 30th June 2016 the estimated population of Aberdeen City was 229,840. This equates to 4.2% of Scotland’s total population (5,404,700).

The estimated population of Aberdeen City has decreased slightly (-0.2%) between mid 2015 (estimated population of 230,350) and mid 2016. In Scotland as a whole, the population increased by 0.6% from 5,373,000 to 5,404,700. Table 1 shows the population estimates for Aberdeen City and Scotland for 2015 and 2016, giving the absolute and percentage changes between these dates.

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Table 1: Total population, Aberdeen City and Scotland, mid 2015 and mid 2016 Change Percentage 2015 2016 between change 2015 and 2016 n n n % Aberdeen City 230,350 229,840 -510 -0.22% Scotland 5,373,000 5,404,700 31,700 0.59% Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables n = number, % = percentage

2.2. Comparison with other local authorities Aberdeen City is one of seven local authorities which have experienced a decrease in estimated population in the past year. Figure 1 shows the change in population between mid- 2015 and mid-2016 for all 32 local authorities and for Scotland (Aberdeen City and Scotland are highlighted in red). To enable comparison between local authorities with different population sizes the chart shows the percentage change. The largest decrease at 0.6% was Na h-Eileanan Siar. The largest increase in population was the City of Edinburgh with an increase of 1.7%. Full details of the estimated population for all local authorities, including absolute and percentage change between mid-2015 and mid-2016 are given in Appendix 1.

Figure 1: Percentage change in estimated population by local authority, mid 2015 to mid 2016

Na h-Eileanan Siar -0.6% Inverclyde -0.4% Angus -0.3% North Ayrshire -0.2% Aberdeen City -0.2% Dumfries and Galloway -0.1% Shetland Islands 0.0% Dundee City 0.0% Clackmannanshire 0.0% South Ayrshire 0.1% East Ayrshire 0.1% Aberdeenshire 0.1% West Dunbartonshire 0.3% South Lanarkshire 0.3% North Lanarkshire 0.3% Highland 0.3% Argyll and Bute 0.3% Scottish Borders 0.4% Perth and Kinross 0.5% East Dunbartonshire 0.5% Moray 0.6% Scotland 0.6% Fife 0.6% Falkirk 0.6% Renfrewshire 0.8% Orkney Islands 0.8% West Lothian 0.9% East Renfrewshire 0.9% Stirling 1.0% East Lothian 1.0% Midlothian 1.4% Glasgow City 1.4% City of Edinburgh 1.7% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables

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2.3. Components of change As noted previously, population change is calculated from two main components; (1) natural change (births minus deaths) and (2) estimated net civilian migration (the sum of migration to/from Scotland and internal migration). It also includes other changes (e.g. changes in prisoner and armed forces population) although these tend to make up a smaller proportion of changes. In Aberdeen City, while there was a positive natural change (440) between mid- 2015 and mid-2016, there was negative net migration (-969) over the period. In contrast, in Scotland there was negative natural change (although this was very small) and positive net migration. Table 2 shows the components of population change for Aberdeen City and Scotland for mid-2015 to mid-2016

Table 2: Components of population change, Aberdeen City and Scotland, mid-2015 to mid- 2016 Estimated Total Population Natural Other Population Percentage net civilian change 2015 change changes3 2016 change migration1,2 n n n n n n % Aberdeen 230,350 440 -969 19 229,840 -510 -0.2% City Scotland 5,373,000 -821 31,693 828 5,404,700 31,700 0.6% Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables, n = number, % = percent 1) Estimated net civilian migration includes movements within Scotland, the rest of the UK and overseas. Moves to and from armed forces are included in 'other changes'. 2) Includes asylum seekers and refugees. 3) Includes changes in the number of prisoners, armed forces stationed in Scotland and a rounding adjustment.

The negative net-migration in Aberdeen City for 2015-2016 indicates that more people moved out of the city than moved into it. This contrasts with figures for recent years where net- migration was positive. To explore this further, Figure 2 shows the contribution of different components of net migration (i.e.net migration between Aberdeen and the rest of Scotland, between Aberdeen and the rest of the UK and between Aberdeen and overseas) for Aberdeen City for 2011-2012 to 2015-16. The chart shows the changing patterns of net migration for Aberdeen City – in particular it highlights the high levels of negative net migration from Aberdeen to other areas of Scotland in 2014-2015 and 2015-2016. In 2015-2016, while net migration from overseas was positive, this was outweighed by the high levels of negative net migration between Aberdeen City and other areas in Scotland and between Aberdeen City and the rest of the UK, resulting in an overall negative net migration for the City

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Figure 2: Components of net migration, Aberdeen City, mid 2011-2012 to mid 2015-2016

Within Scotland Rest of UK Overseas Total net migration

4,000 3,189

3,000 2,474 2,102 1,847 1,965 2,000 1,664 1,302 1,412 1,085 1,000 557 587 101 117 0 -195 -356 -1,000 -779 -969 -1,140 -2,000 -2,221 -3,000 -2,664 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016

Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-year Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates

3. Age and sex structure of the population

3.1. Gender There are slightly more females than males in Aberdeen City. Of Aberdeen’s total population on 30th June 2016, 115,719 (50.3%) were female and 114,121 (49.7%) were male (Table 3). This is consistent with the general pattern for Scotland, however, males make up a higher proportion of the population in Aberdeen City (49.7%) than in Scotland (48.6%).

Table 3: Estimated population by gender, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2016 Estimated Percentage of Male to female population total population ratio* mid 2016 n % ratio Aberdeen City Male 114,121 49.7% - Female 115,719 50.3% - All persons 229,840 100.0% 0.99

Scotland Male 2,627,503 48.6% - Female 2,777,197 51.4% - All persons 5,404,700 100.0% 0.95 Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables, n = number, % = percentage, *Male population divided by the female population Comparison with other local authorities: With the exception of the Shetland Islands, females outnumber males in every local authority in Scotland. There is, however, some variation in the balance between males and females across different local authorities. The male to female ratio ranges from a low of 0.91 in East Renfrewshire to a high of 1.03 in the Shetland Islands.

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At 0.99 Aberdeen City (along with Aberdeenshire, Argyll and Bute and the Orkney Islands) has the second highest male to female ratio of all local authorities. The ratio for Scotland as a whole is 0.95. Figure 3 shows the male to female ratio for all local authorities and for Scotland. Figure 3: Male to female ratio, local authorities, Scotland, mid 2016

1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84

3.2. Age Table 4 shows the broad age structure of the population for Aberdeen City and Scotland. It presents the proportion of the population for three age categories – under 16 years, working age1 and pensionable age2. It also shows the median age of the population. The median age in Aberdeen City is lower than that for Scotland (36 years compared to 41 years). This is consistent with the higher proportion of people of working age (69% compared to 63%) and lower proportion of people of pensionable age (16% compared to 20%) in Aberdeen City than in Scotland. The proportion of people aged under 16 years is slightly lower in Aberdeen City (15%) than in Scotland as a whole (17%).

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Table 4: Age and sex structure of population, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2016 Percentage Percentage Percentage Median age under 16 pensionable working age1 years age2 Aberdeen Males 35 years 15% 71% 13% Females 37 years 15% 66% 20% All persons 36 years 15% 69% 16%

Scotland Males 40 years 18% 65% 17% Females 43 years 16% 61% 23% All persons 41 years 17% 63% 20% Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables 1) Working age at 30 June 2016 is defined as men aged 16 to 64 and women aged 16 to approximately 63 years and 86 days. 2) Pensionable age at 30 June 2016 was 65 for men and approximately 63 years and 87 days for women.

3.3. Age and gender Table 4 also gives the broad age breakdown by gender. In Aberdeen City the proportion of males and females is equal in the under 16 years age group. However, there are more working age males than females (71% compared to 66%) and more pensionable age females than males (20% compared to 13%). The pattern for the two older age groups is consistent with that for Scotland, however in Scotland there is a higher proportion of males than females in the under 16 years age group.

To provide a more comprehensive picture of the age and sex structure of Aberdeen City (Figure 4) and Scotland (Figure 5), population pyramids are presented. Population pyramids show the number of males and females by single year of age (up to age 89 years – all 90+ years are grouped together). Comparison of the pyramids for Aberdeen City and Scotland clearly shows the differences in the age structures in both areas. In Aberdeen City there is a spike in the number of younger adults – peaking at 25 years of age for both males (2,744) and females (2,581). In contrast, in Scotland the largest population ‘bulge’ is in older adults – peaking at 51 years for males (40,421) and females (42,646). In both Aberdeen City and Scotland, the relatively high number of women compared to men in older ages is evident. Appendix 2 gives full details of the population of Aberdeen City by sex and single year of age.

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Figure 4: Population pyramid, Aberdeen City, 30th June 2016

Female Male

90+ 85 80 75 70 65 60

55 50 45 40

Age Age (years) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Number of people

Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables

Figure 5: Population pyramid, Scotland, 30th June 2016

Female Male

88 84 80 76 72 68 64 60

56 52 48 44 40

Age Age (years) 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Number of people

Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables

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4. Time series data (1981 to 2016)

4.1. Total population Figure 6 shows population trends for Aberdeen City (left-hand scale) and Scotland (right-hand scale). Between 1981 and 2016 the population of Aberdeen City increased by 17,346, from 212,494 in 1981 to 229,840 in 2016. This equates to an increase of 8.2% - almost double the rate of increase (4.3%) seen in Scotland during the same period (from 5,180,200 to 5,404,700). However, while there has been an overall increase in both areas, this increase was not sustained over the whole period with the population in both Aberdeen City and Scotland experiencing periods of decline or (in Scotland) relatively stability. In particular, in Aberdeen City there was a sharp drop (-5.5%) in population between 1995 (219,880) and 2004 (207,820). The most sustained period of increase for both areas has been in the last 10 to 12 years. Between 2004 and 2015 the population of Aberdeen City rose by 10.8% (from 207,820 to 230,350) – considerably higher than the rate of increase for Scotland over the same period of 5.7%. However, while this upward trend has continued in Scotland, the drop in population in Aberdeen City between 2015 and 2016 has brought this period of sustained year on year increase to an end in Aberdeen City.

Figure 6: Population trends, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 1981 to 2016

Aberdeen City Scotland

235,000 5,500,000

230,000

5,400,000

225,000 5,300,000 220,000 5,200,000 215,000 5,100,000 210,000 5,000,000

205,000

Number of people, Scotland people, of Number Number of people, Aberdeen City Aberdeen people, of Number 200,000 4,900,000

195,000 4,800,000 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Estimates Time Series Data, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates/population-estimates-time-series-data

Comparison with other local authorities: Of the 32 local authorities in Scotland, between 1981 and 2016 the population increased in 20 and decreased in 12. The largest decrease has been in Inverclyde where the population has dropped by 21.8% (from 101,182 in 1981 to 79,160 in 2016). The local authority with the largest increase in population over the period has been Aberdeenshire where the population has increased by 38.8% (from 188,923 in 1981 to 262,190 in 2016). Figure 7 shows the percentage change in population between 1981 and 2016 for all local authorities and for Scotland (Aberdeen City and Scotland are highlighted in red).

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Figure 7: Percentage change in population between 1981 and 2016, local authorities, Scotland

Inverclyde -21.8% West Dunbartonshire -15.1% Na h-Eileanan Siar -14.7% Glasgow, City -13.7% Dundee City -12.6% Shetland Islands -11.9% Renfrewshire -4.9% Argyll and Bute -4.2% East Ayrshire -4.1% East Dunbartonshire -2.0% North Ayrshire -1.0% North Lanarkshire -0.7% South Ayrshire -0.6% South Lanarkshire 2.3% Dumfries and Galloway 2.8% Scotland 4.3% Midlothian 6.0% Clackmannanshire 6.5% Aberdeen City 8.2% Fife 8.4% Falkirk 9.8% Angus 10.3% Scottish Borders 13.1% City of Edinburgh 13.7% Orkney Islands 13.9% Moray 15.1% Stirling 16.8% East Renfrewshire 16.9% Highland 20.5% Perth and Kinross 23.7% East Lothian 29.0% West Lothian 29.4% Aberdeenshire 38.8% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Percentage change

Components of change (2006-2016): Information on all components of change (natural change, net migration and other changes) is available for the period 2006 to 2016 (i.e. for the period where the sustained increase in population was noted for Aberdeen City and Scotland). Between 2006 and 2016 the population of Aberdeen City increased by 20,220 (9.6%). Positive net migration was the largest contributor to this rise, increasing the population by 18,444. There was also a positive natural change (4,501). However, ‘other changes’ (which includes changes in the number of prisoners or armed forces stationed in the area) were negative, reducing the population by 2,725 over the period.

The relative contribution of alternative components of change varied across different local authority areas. To give an indication of this variability, Figure 8 shows the percentage change for each component for all 32 local authorities. (Note: the figure given is a percentage of the 2006 population, e.g. for Aberdeen City the change in population between 2006 and 2016 due to migration was 18,444 – this is equivalent to 8.8% of the population in 2006). Full details of components of change for all local authorities are given in Appendix 3.

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Figure 8: Components of population change between 2006 to 2016, local authorities, Scotland

Natural change % Net migration % other change %

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

4.2. Population change by gender (1981-2016) Figure 9 shows time series data for males and females in Aberdeen City between 1981 and 2016. Despite the relatively sustained decline in the middle of the period (between 1995 and 2004), overall the population of both males and females has increased. The period of most rapid growth was between 2004 and 2015 where the male population increased from 102,147 to 114,414 (an increase of 12.0%) and the female population increased from 105,674 to 115,936 (an increase of 9.7%). Over the whole period the male population has increased by 12,616 (12.4%) and the female population has increased by 4,730 (4.3%). While the female population has consistently been higher than the male population throughout the period, the higher rate of increase in the male population compared to the female population has contributed to a narrowing of the population gap between males and females. In 1981 there were 9,484 more females than males in Aberdeen City and by 2016 there were only 1,598 more females than males.

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Figure 9: Population trends, males and females, Aberdeen City, 1981 to 2016

Males Females

120,000

115,000

110,000

105,000

100,000 Number of people of Number

95,000

90,000 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

4.3. Population change by age group (1981-2016) Figure 10 shows the population by age group (5-year age bands) for 1981 and 2016 for Aberdeen City. The chart highlights the relative size of the different age groups as well as the different levels of change in different age categories.

Figure 10: Population by age group, Aberdeen City, 1981 and 2016

1981 2016

90+ 85 - 89 80 - 84 75 - 79 70 - 74 65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59 50 - 54 45 - 49 40 - 44 35 - 39

30 - 34 Age group (years) group Age 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5 - 9 0 - 4

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Number of people

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While the population increased in most age groups, the number of people aged 70-74 years and 75-79 years decreased in the period as did the number of people aged 5-9 years, 10-14 years and 15-19 years. The largest increases were in the 25-29 year, 30-34 year and 35-39 year age groups with increases of 8,749, 5,027 and 4,252 respectively.

In 1981 the age group with the largest number of people was the 20-24 year age group (21,149 people). In 2016 the age group with the largest number of people was the 25-29 year age group (24,730). While the number of people aged 90+ years has almost tripled in the period between 1981 and 2016 (from 573 to 1,553), there are fewer people in this age group than any other age group.

Percentage change: Figure 11 shows the percentage population change between 1981 and 2016 by age group (5-year age bands) for Aberdeen City. This highlights the levels of change within different age groups. As can be seen, the largest increases were in the oldest age groups (85-89 years and 90+ years) which increased by 95.3% and 171% respectively. The next largest percentage increase at 54.7% was in the 25-29 year age group. The largest decreases were in the 10-14 year and 15-19 year age groups which fell by 39.9% and 40.1% respectively.

Figure 11: Percentage population change by age group, 1981 to 2016, Aberdeen City

90+ 171.0% 85 - 89 95.3% 80 - 84 32.5% 75 - 79 -5.1% 70 - 74 -15.0%

65 - 69 8.4% 60 - 64 12.6% 55 - 59 11.9% 50 - 54 19.9% 45 - 49 19.2% 40 - 44 23.6% 35 - 39 35.9% 30 - 34 33.0% Age Age group(years) 25 - 29 54.7% 20 - 24 0.4% 15 - 19 -40.1% 10 - 14 -39.9% 5 - 9 -9.5% 0 - 4 9.2% -100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% Percentage change

Figure 12 shows the percentage change between 1981 and 2016 by age group for males and females. This illustrates the different patterns of change between males and females in some age groups. The most striking difference between males and females is in the older age groups where the rate of increase has been considerably higher in males than females. In particular, the male 90+ years population increased by 282.2% in the period compared to an increase of 142.7% in the female 90+ years population. Additionally, while previous charts show an overall drop in the number of people in the 70-74 year and 75-79 year age groups,

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when data is split by gender, it is clear that this drop has been driven by a fall in the number of women in these age groups. Full details of changes in population by age group and gender are given in Appendix 4.

Figure 12: Percentage population change between 1981 and 2016 by age group, males and females, Aberdeen City

Females Males

90+ 85-89 years 80-84 years 75-79 years 70-74 years 65-69 years 60-64 years 55-59 years 50-54 years 45-49 years 40-44 years 35-39 years 30-34 years 25-29 years 20-24 years 15-19 years 10-14 years 5-9 years 0-4 years -100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 250.0% 300.0%

5. Population projections – 2014 to 2039

In addition to population estimates, NRS also publish population projections. Population projections give estimates of the projected population of an area over a 25 year period. Sub- national population projections are published every two years. Population projections are trend-based. They make assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality and migration based on levels observed in the recent past. They therefore give an indication of what the future population might be if recent trends continue. The current projections (published 27th October 2016) are based on 2014 mid-year population estimates and cover the period from mid-2014 to mid-2039. Full details of the population projections for Aberdeen City are available at: http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/nmsruntime/saveasdialog.asp?lID=73692&sID=332 A brief summary of the principle population projection for Aberdeen City is given below.

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5.1. Total population In Aberdeen City, between 2014 and 2039 the population is projected to increase by 39,043 from 228,920 to 267,963. This is an increase of 17.1%. Across Scotland as a whole, the population is projected to increase by 6.6%, from 5,347,600 in 2014 to 5,701,476 in 2039.

5.2. By gender Table 5 shows the projected population change by gender for Aberdeen City and for Scotland. In Aberdeen City the increase is projected to be higher in males than in females (19.1% compared to 15.0%). While this is consistent with the trend in Scotland which also shows a higher increase for males (7.8%) than females (5.5%); unlike Scotland, in Aberdeen City this would reverse the current situation where there are more females than males in the City. In 2039, males will make up 50.4% of Aberdeen City’s population compared to 49.6% in 2014.

Table 5: Projected population change by gender, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2014-2039 Percentage 2014 2039 Change change n n n % Aberdeen City Male 113,477 135,162 21,685 19.1 Female 115,443 132,801 17,358 15.0 All persons 228,920 267,963 39,043 17.1

Scotland Male 2,596,530 2,799,938 203,408 7.8 Female 2,751,070 2,901,538 150,468 5.5 All persons 5,347,600 5,701,476 353,876 6.6 n = number, % = percentage Source: National Records of Scotland, sub-national population projections, available at: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub- national-population-projections)

5.3. By age group Table 6 shows the projected percentage change in population by broad age group (0-15 years, working age, pensionable age and over, age 75 years and over) for Aberdeen City and Scotland. The highest projected increase (66.0%) is in those aged 75 years and over. In Aberdeen City, the projected percentage increases in the number of children aged 0-15 years and in the working age population, are considerably higher than the respective changes for Scotland as a whole. In contrast, the projected proportionate increase of the older population, i.e. those of pensionable* age and over and those aged 75 years and over, is lower in Aberdeen City than in Scotland.

*This is estimated from State Pension Age as set out in the 2014 Pensions Act. As set out in the 2014 Pensions Act, between 2014 and 2018, the state pension age will rise from 62 to 65 for women. Then between 2019 and 2020, it will rise from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women. A further rise in state pension age to 67 will take place between 2026 and 2028. Between 2044 and 2046, state pension age will increase from 67 to 68. The UK Government plans to review state pension.

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Table 6: Projected percentage change in population by broad age group, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2014-based population projections 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 % % % % % Aberdeen City 0-15 years 8.3 15.2 17.4 18.9 19.4 Working age 4.9 7.4 11.2 13.2 15.7 Pensionable* age and over -5.1 -0.1 3.8 13.9 20.5 Age 75 years and over 2.1 16.7 30.7 48.4 66.0 All ages 3.8 7.3 10.9 14.2 17.1

Scotland 0-15 years 1.3 2.2 1.6 2.0 1.4 Working age 3.0 3.4 4.4 2.3 1.2 Pensionable* age and over -3.0 3.1 8.1 20.2 28.3 Age 75 years and over 9.4 28.6 44.5 63.2 85.4 All ages 1.5 3.1 4.6 5.8 6.6 Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2014-based), Available at: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub- national-population-projections/2014-based

5.4. Comparison of projected population with current (2016) MYEs NRS estimates the current (2016) population of Aberdeen City to be 229,840. However, the 2014-based principle population projection estimated that in 2016 the population of Aberdeen City would be 232,613 – i.e. the projected figure is 2,773 higher than the actual (estimated) figure.

Population projections are trend-based and principle population projections use assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration which are thought to be the most likely to occur over the next 25 years. The reason for the discrepancy between projected figures and current estimates is therefore likely to be that the trends on which the assumptions were based have changed. For example, the principle projections for Aberdeen City assume positive net migration to the City over the 25-year period of the projection. However, most recent figures show there was negative net migration to Aberdeen City between 2015 and 2016. The 2016 MYEs are closer to projected figures for the ‘low migration’ variant (231,220) of the population projections. This should be borne in mind if using population projections (and the household projections which are based on population projections).

6. Small area populations

In addition to population estimates for council areas, NRS also produce small area population estimates. These are population estimates for data zones which are small area geographies used by the Scottish Government for statistical purposes. There are 283 data zones (2011- based) in Aberdeen City. These are allocated to the City’s wards and neighbourhoods on a ‘best fit’ basis to provide population estimates for these areas. Small area population

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estimates are not yet available for 2016 (these are due to be released in August 2017). Tables 7 and 8 provide summaries of 2015 population estimates for Aberdeen City’s neighbourhoods and wards (2007-based).

Table 7: 2015 Mid-year population estimates, neighbourhoods, Aberdeen City Neighbourhood Total population Ashgrove 2,764 Balgownie & Donmouth 6,347 Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield 13,493 Bucksburn 7,381 City Centre 6,921 Cove 6,862 Culter 4,939 Cults, Bieldside & Milltimber 10,940 Cummings Park 1,860 Danestone 4,013 Denmore 3,052 Dyce 6,501 Ferryhill 10,144 Froghall, Powis & Sunnybank 5,780 Garthdee 5,374 George Street 7,391 Hanover 7,878 Hazlehead 5,046 Heathryfold 2,092 Hilton 7,885 Kincorth, Leggart & Nigg 9,334 Kingswells 5,590 Mastrick 7,527 Middlefield 3,064 Midstocket 4,008 Northfield 5,481 Old Aberdeen 3,845 Oldmachar 9,441 Rosemount 7,597 Seaton 5,640 Sheddocksley 3,998 Stockethill 3,935 Summerhill 3,943 Tillydrone 5,609 Torry 10,552 West End 10,030 Woodside 4,093 Total 230,350 Source: National Records of Scotland, Small Area Population Estimates (2011 data zone based), available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/2011-based- special-area-population-estimates

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Table 8: 2015 Mid-year population estimates, multi-member wards (2007 based), Aberdeen City Total Ward population Dyce/Bucksburn/Danestone 18,705 Bridge of Don 18,840 Kingswells/Sheddocksley/Summerhill 15,352 Northfield/Mastrick North 17,316 Hilton/Woodside/Stockethill 15,620 Tillydrone/Seaton/Old Aberdeen 18,896 Midstocket/Rosemount 15,038 George Street/Harbour 18,642 Lower Deeside 15,879 Hazlehead/Ashley/Queens Cross 20,242 Airyhall/Broomhill/Garthdee 16,807 Torry/Ferryhill 22,817 Kincorth/Nigg/Cove 16,196 Total 230,350 Source: National Records of Scotland, Small Area Population Estimates (2011 data zone based), available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/2011-based- special-area-population-estimates

Full details of 2015 population estimates for Aberdeen City’s neighbourhoods and wards are available at:

http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/tourism_visitor_attractions/tourists_visitors/statistics/2015 _Pop_Est_Neighbourhoods.asp (Neighbourhoods)

http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/tourism_visitor_attractions/tourists_visitors/statistics/2015 _Pop_Est_Wards.asp (Wards)

Updates to neighbourhood and ward population estimates will be published on the Stats and Facts page when the information becomes available in August.

7. Population density

Aberdeen City has a land area1 of 186 square kilometres. This equates to a current population density of 1,238 (i.e. there are an average of 1,238 people per square kilometre). Scotland has a land area of 77,911 square kilometres and a population density of 69 people per square kilometre.

1 Land areas were derived from Standard Area Measurements produced by the Office for National Statistics at December 2016.

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8. Summary and conclusion

On 30th June 2016, the estimated population of Aberdeen City was 229,840. This is a fall of 0.2% on the estimated population in 2015. There are slightly more females than males in the City, with females making up 50.3% of the population. Compared to Scotland, Aberdeen City has a relatively ‘young’ population with a relatively high proportion of working age people and a relatively low proportion of older people.

Over the past 35 years, the population of Aberdeen City has increased by 8.2%. During this period the rate of increase has been higher in males (12.4%) than in females (4.3%) with the result that, while the female population has consistently been higher than the male population, the gap between males and females is closing. The largest absolute increase in population has been in the 25-29 year age group with 8,749 (54.7%) more people in this age category in 2016 than there were in 1981. Proportionately, the largest increases have been in the two oldest age groups – the number of people aged 85-90 years has increased by 95.3% and the number of people aged 90+ years has increased by 171.0%. Within all of these age categories, the increase has been higher in males than in females.

While there has been an overall increase in the population over the past 35 years, there have been periods of population decline as well as periods of increase. In recent years Aberdeen City has experienced a relatively long period of year-on-year increases in population. However, for the first time since 2004, the estimates for 2016 indicate that the population in Aberdeen City has decreased slightly. The main reason for the decrease is that there was negative net migration to the City between 2015 and 2016. At this stage it is not possible to tell whether this is a one-year ‘blip’ or whether the drop in population will continue.

Point of note: the drop in population seen in 2016 is counter to the projection given for 2016 in the most recent population projections (i.e. the 2016 population estimate is 2,773 lower than the figure given for 2016 in the principle population projection). The most recent population projections (released in October 2016) were 2014-based, i.e. they were based on trends (fertility, mortality and migration) observed in the period prior to 2014 when there was positive net migration to Aberdeen City (rather than the negative net migration experienced between 2015 and 2016). It is important to bear this in mind when looking at population projections or household projections (which are based on population projections).

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Appendix 1: Change in estimated population, local authorities, Scotland, mid 2015 to mid 2016 Population change between mid 2015

and mid 2016 Estimated Estimated Percentage population population Change change 30 June 2015 30 June 2016 n n n % Na h-Eileanan Siar 27,070 26,900 -170 -0.6 Inverclyde 79,500 79,160 -340 -0.4 Angus 116,900 116,520 -380 -0.3 Aberdeen City 230,350 229,840 -510 -0.2 North Ayrshire 136,130 135,890 -240 -0.2 Dumfries and Galloway 149,670 149,520 -150 -0.1 Clackmannanshire 51,360 51,350 -10 0 Dundee City 148,210 148,270 60 0 Shetland Islands 23,200 23,200 0 0 Aberdeenshire 261,960 262,190 230 0.1 East Ayrshire 122,060 122,200 140 0.1 South Ayrshire 112,400 112,470 70 0.1 Argyll and Bute 86,890 87,130 240 0.3 Highland 234,110 234,770 660 0.3 North Lanarkshire 338,260 339,390 1,130 0.3 South Lanarkshire 316,230 317,100 870 0.3 West Dunbartonshire 89,590 89,860 270 0.3 Scottish Borders 114,030 114,530 500 0.4 East Dunbartonshire 106,960 107,540 580 0.5 Perth and Kinross 149,930 150,680 750 0.5 Scotland 5,373,000 5,404,700 31,700 0.6 Falkirk 158,460 159,380 920 0.6 Fife 368,080 370,330 2,250 0.6 Moray 95,510 96,070 560 0.6 Orkney Islands 21,670 21,850 180 0.8 Renfrewshire 174,560 175,930 1,370 0.8 East Renfrewshire 92,940 93,810 870 0.9 West Lothian 178,550 180,130 1,580 0.9 East Lothian 103,050 104,090 1,040 1 Stirling 92,830 93,750 920 1 Glasgow City 606,340 615,070 8,730 1.4 Midlothian 87,390 88,610 1,220 1.4 City of Edinburgh 498,810 507,170 8,360 1.7 Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables n = number, % = percentage

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Appendix 2: Estimated population by single year of age, males and females, Aberdeen City, 30th June 2016 Age Total Male Female Age Total Male Female Age Total Male Female (years) 0 2,533 1,295 1,238 30 4,421 2,324 2,097 60 2,609 1,315 1,294 1 2,454 1,254 1,200 31 4,255 2,172 2,083 61 2,453 1,233 1,220 2 2,408 1,245 1,163 32 3,850 2,036 1,814 62 2,373 1,255 1,118 3 2,386 1,208 1,178 33 3,963 2,029 1,934 63 2,210 1,131 1,079 4 2,425 1,224 1,201 34 3,756 1,972 1,784 64 2,202 1,093 1,109 0-4 12,206 6,226 5,980 30-34 20,245 10,533 9,712 60-64 11,847 6,027 5,820

5 2,365 1,210 1,155 35 3,634 1,950 1,684 65 2,126 1,052 1,074 6 2,279 1,158 1,121 36 3,469 1,775 1,694 66 2,111 1,070 1,041 7 2,214 1,127 1,087 37 3,211 1,746 1,465 67 2,257 1,112 1,145 8 2,187 1,079 1,108 38 2,944 1,528 1,416 68 2,151 1,052 1,099 9 2,050 1,038 1,012 39 2,843 1,519 1,324 69 2,413 1,150 1,263 5-9 11,095 5,612 5,483 35-39 16,101 8,518 7,583 65-69 11,058 5,436 5,622

10 1,945 979 966 40 2,884 1,499 1,385 70 1,752 840 912 11 1,889 969 920 41 2,762 1,446 1,316 71 1,453 672 781 12 1,780 895 885 42 2,692 1,431 1,261 72 1,489 689 800 13 1,733 896 837 43 2,908 1,512 1,396 73 1,505 692 813 14 1,745 910 835 44 2,886 1,420 1,466 74 1,481 658 823 10-14 9,092 4,649 4,443 40-44 14,132 7,308 6,824 70-74 7,680 3,551 4,129

15 1,794 902 892 45 2,973 1,514 1,459 75 1,298 555 743 16 1,893 964 929 46 2,697 1,302 1,395 76 1,353 582 771 17 1,921 986 935 47 2,859 1,446 1,413 77 1,288 530 758 18 2,436 1,132 1,304 48 2,905 1,516 1,389 78 1,284 565 719 19 3,500 1,536 1,964 49 2,906 1,503 1,403 79 1,206 502 704 15-19 11,544 5,520 6,024 45-49 14,340 7,281 7,059 75-79 6,429 2,734 3,695

20 3,739 1,688 2,051 50 2,839 1,359 1,480 80 1,146 451 695 21 3,942 1,729 2,213 51 3,008 1,497 1,511 81 1,083 447 636 22 3,961 1,886 2,075 52 2,899 1,392 1,507 82 997 412 585 23 4,417 2,134 2,283 53 3,042 1,527 1,515 83 893 359 534 24 5,182 2,618 2,564 54 3,010 1,509 1,501 84 930 347 583 20-24 21,241 10,055 11,186 50-54 14,798 7,284 7,514 80-84 5,049 2,016 3,033

25 5,325 2,744 2,581 55 2,738 1,328 1,410 85 765 286 479 26 5,057 2,637 2,420 56 2,791 1,378 1,413 86 702 222 480 27 5,087 2,749 2,338 57 2,781 1,392 1,389 87 639 212 427 28 4,714 2,486 2,228 58 2,700 1,362 1,338 88 502 158 344 29 4,547 2,468 2,079 59 2,627 1,337 1,290 89 455 168 287 25-29 24,730 13,084 11,646 55-59 13,637 6,797 6,840 85-89 3,063 1,046 2,017 years

90+ 1,553 444 1,109 Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics- and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables

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Appendix 3: Components of change between 2006 and 2016, local authorities, Scotland Estimated Estimated Estimated Natural Other Population change population Births Deaths net civilian population change changes 30 June 2006 migration 30 June 2016 Number % Aberdeen City 209,620 25,486 20,985 4,501 18,444 -2,725 229,840 20,220 9.6 Aberdeenshire 241,180 27,775 22,634 5,141 14,871 998 262,190 21,010 8.7 Angus 112,500 11,331 12,885 -1,554 3,648 1,926 116,520 4,020 3.6 Argyll and Bute 90,870 7,540 10,845 -3,305 377 -812 87,130 -3,740 -4.1 City of Edinburgh 452,060 54,141 42,472 11,669 54,429 -10,988 507,170 55,110 12.2 Clackmannanshire 49,540 5,848 5,042 806 851 153 51,350 1,810 3.7 Dumfries and Galloway 149,780 13,968 18,260 -4,292 3,246 786 149,520 -260 -0.2 Dundee City 143,370 16,865 16,626 239 5,375 -714 148,270 4,900 3.4 East Ayrshire 120,450 13,329 13,614 -285 1,244 791 122,200 1,750 1.5 East Dunbartonshire 105,590 9,286 9,950 -664 1,792 822 107,540 1,950 1.8 East Lothian 93,850 10,852 10,168 684 8,880 676 104,090 10,240 10.9 East Renfrewshire 89,750 8,611 8,622 -11 3,748 323 93,810 4,060 4.5 Falkirk 151,090 17,790 15,707 2,083 6,462 -255 159,380 8,290 5.5 Fife 357,260 40,389 38,318 2,071 13,365 -2,366 370,330 13,070 3.7 Glasgow City 568,480 73,262 65,369 7,893 35,076 3,621 615,070 46,590 8.2 Highland 220,780 23,287 23,682 -395 10,427 3,958 234,770 13,990 6.3 Inverclyde 82,320 7,904 9,915 -2,011 -2,322 1,173 79,160 -3,160 -3.8 Midlothian 80,000 9,992 8,158 1,834 5,912 864 88,610 8,610 10.8 Moray 90,780 9,465 9,557 -92 3,441 1,941 96,070 5,290 5.8 Na h-Eileanan Siar 27,060 2,405 3,560 -1,155 193 802 26,900 -160 -0.6 North Ayrshire 136,790 14,008 15,936 -1,928 -106 1,134 135,890 -900 -0.7 North Lanarkshire 328,740 39,031 34,365 4,666 1,371 4,613 339,390 10,650 3.2 Orkney Islands 20,340 1,949 2,227 -278 1,164 624 21,850 1,510 7.4 Perth and Kinross 139,390 13,835 15,547 -1,712 15,416 -2,414 150,680 11,290 8.1 Renfrewshire 171,270 18,703 19,274 -571 3,694 1,537 175,930 4,660 2.7 Scottish Borders 110,860 11,203 12,829 -1,626 5,747 -451 114,530 3,670 3.3 Shetland Islands 22,210 2,586 2,184 402 276 312 23,200 990 4.5 South Ayrshire 112,100 10,345 14,159 -3,814 3,912 272 112,470 370 0.3 South Lanarkshire 308,450 34,177 33,432 745 8,050 -145 317,100 8,650 2.8 Stirling 88,090 8,416 8,587 -171 6,976 -1,145 93,750 5,660 6.4 West Dunbartonshire 91,420 10,353 10,765 -412 -1,192 44 89,860 -1,560 -1.7 West Lothian 167,110 21,330 14,388 6,942 5,343 735 180,130 13,020 7.8 Scotland 5,133,100 575,462 550,062 25,400 240,110 6,090 5,404,700 271,600 5.3 Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid- year-population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables

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Appendix 4: Population change between 1981 and 2016 by age group and gender, Aberdeen City All persons Males Females

1981 2016 Change % change 1981 2016 Change % change 1981 2016 Change % change n n n % n n n % n n n % All Ages 212,494 229,840 17,346 8.2% 101,505 114,121 12,616 12.4% 110,989 115,719 4,730 4.3% 0 – 4 years 11,175 12,206 1,031 9.2% 5,885 6,226 341 5.8% 5,290 5,980 690 13.0% 5 – 9 years 12,257 11,095 -1,162 -9.5% 6,318 5,612 -706 -11.2% 5,939 5,483 -456 -7.7% 10 – 14 years 15,126 9,092 -6,034 -39.9% 7,715 4,649 -3,066 -39.7% 7,411 4,443 -2,968 -40.0% 15 – 19 years 19,259 11,544 -7,715 -40.1% 9,710 5,520 -4,190 -43.2% 9,549 6,024 -3,525 -36.9% 20 – 24 years 21,149 21,241 92 0.4% 10,612 10,055 -557 -5.2% 10,537 11,186 649 6.2% 25 – 29 years 15,981 24,730 8,749 54.7% 8,383 13,084 4,701 56.1% 7,598 11,646 4,048 53.3% 30 – 34 years 15,218 20,245 5,027 33.0% 7,725 10,533 2,808 36.3% 7,493 9,712 2,219 29.6% 35 – 39 years 11,849 16,101 4,252 35.9% 5,867 8,518 2,651 45.2% 5,982 7,583 1,601 26.8% 40 – 44 years 11,435 14,132 2,697 23.6% 5,591 7,308 1,717 30.7% 5,844 6,824 980 16.8% 45 – 49 years 12,033 14,340 2,307 19.2% 5,738 7,281 1,543 26.9% 6,295 7,059 764 12.1% 50 – 54 years 12,340 14,798 2,458 19.9% 5,795 7,284 1,489 25.7% 6,545 7,514 969 14.8% 55 – 59 years 12,187 13,637 1,450 11.9% 5,685 6,797 1,112 19.6% 6,502 6,840 338 5.2% 60 – 64 years 10,523 11,847 1,324 12.6% 4,810 6,027 1,217 25.3% 5,713 5,820 107 1.9% 65 – 69 years 10,204 11,058 854 8.4% 4,293 5,436 1,143 26.6% 5,911 5,622 -289 -4.9% 70 – 74 years 9,035 7,680 -1,355 -15.0% 3,590 3,551 -39 -1.1% 5,445 4,129 -1,316 -24.2% 75 – 79 years 6,771 6,429 -342 -5.1% 2,261 2,734 473 20.9% 4,510 3,695 -815 -18.1% 80 – 84 years 3,811 5,049 1,238 32.5% 1,047 2,016 969 92.6% 2,764 3,033 269 9.7% 85 – 89 years 1,568 3,063 1,495 95.3% 364 1,046 682 187.4% 1,204 2,017 813 67.5% 90+ years 573 1,553 980 171.0% 116 444 328 282.8% 457 1,109 652 142.7% Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Estimates Time Series Data, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid- year-population-estimates/population-estimates-time-series-data

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