2016 Mid-year Population Estimates Aberdeen City May 2017 RESEARCH AND INFORMATION RESEARCH AND INFORMATION Briefing Paper (May 2017) 2016 Mid-year Population Estimates: Aberdeen City This briefing paper describes the 2016 mid-year population estimates (MYEs) for Aberdeen City. MYEs are population estimates produced annually by National Records of Scotland (NRS) for Scotland and its administrative areas. The 2016 MYEs were published by NRS on 27 April 2017 and give an estimate of the population on 30th June 2016. The 2016 MYEs build on previous estimates, which are updated to account for population change (births, deaths, migration and other change) during the period between 1st July 2015 and 30th June 2016. This paper gives an overview of the population of Aberdeen City at 30th June 2016, including its age and sex structure. It also looks at time series data to give an overview of population trends and changes over time. A brief summary of population projections is also included. Comparisons with other local authorities and Scotland are presented where appropriate. Population estimates can be used for a variety of purposes including resource allocation and planning of services. For more information on this paper, please contact: Research and Information Team Office of Chief Executive Aberdeen City Council Old Town House, Broad Street 1st Floor, Room 1-3 Aberdeen, AB10 1FY 03000 200 291 [email protected] Previous briefing papers have included the following topics: Household projections (2014 based) Population projections (2014 based) Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in Aberdeen City It is intended that these papers will be used by Council services and, where appropriate, our Community Planning partners to assist policy development and wider service delivery. These papers, and other statistical reports, can be found in the ‘Stats and Facts’ section of the Aberdeen City Council website: www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/statsandfacts Research and Information, 2016 mid-year population estimates Page 1 Summary The estimated population in Aberdeen City on 30th June 2016 was 229,840. This equates to 4.2% of Scotland’s total population of 5,404,700. The estimated population of Aberdeen City fell by 510 (0.2%) between mid-2015 and mid- 2016. The main reason for the drop in population was negative net migration - between 2015 and 2016, 969 more people moved out of the City than moved into the City. There are more women than men in Aberdeen City, with women making up 50.3% of the population. The median age in Aberdeen City is 36 years. In Scotland the median age is 41 years. Compared to Scotland, Aberdeen City has a relatively high working-age population (69% compared to 63%) and a relatively low pensionable-age population (16% compared to 20%). The proportion of children (under 16 years) is lower in Aberdeen City than in Scotland (15% compared to 17%). In the 35 years since 1981, the population of Aberdeen City has increased by 8.2% (from 212,494 in 1981 to 229,840 in 2016). The population of Scotland has increased by 4.3% in the same period. While there was an overall increase in population during this time, there were periods where the population of the City fell (e.g. between 1995 and 2004 the population decreased by 12,060) as well as periods of increase. The largest sustained increase was between 2004 and 2015 (from 207,820 to 230,350). Between 1981 and 2016 the male population increased more than the female population resulting in a closing of the gap between males and females. In 1981 there were 9,484 more females than males in Aberdeen City and by 2016 there were only 1,598 more females than males. The largest absolute increase in population has been in the 25-29 year age group which has increased by 8,749 (54.7%). The largest proportionate increase in population has been in the oldest age groups, with the number of people aged 90 years or over increasing by 171.0% between 1981 and 2016. Population density – there are an average of 1,238 people per square kilometre in Aberdeen City. Research and Information, 2016 mid-year population estimates Page 2 2016 Mid-year Population Estimates, Aberdeen City 1. Introduction Mid-year population estimates (MYEs) are published every year by National Records of Scotland (NRS). This paper reports on the 2016 MYEs, published by NRS on 27th April 2017. These give an estimate of the population at 30th June 2016. 1.1. Brief overview of methods The population estimates are based on the Census and are updated annually to account for population change in the period from 1 July to 30 June. The two main contributors to population change are natural change (births minus deaths) and net migration* (the difference between long-term moves into and out of the UK or local areas). Other changes (e.g. changes in prisoner and armed forces population) also contribute, but these tend to make up a smaller proportion of the changes. The starting point for the estimates is the resident population on 30th June the previous year. This population is then aged on by one year (e.g. 1 year-olds become 2-year olds). Those who have been born during the 12 month period are added on and those who have died are taken off. These figures are then adjusted to take into account any movement in and out of the area (net migration) and also any other changes to the population (e.g. changes in armed forces population). Full details on the methods used can be found at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-estimates/mid-year-2016/16-mid- year-pe-method-guide.pdf *Note: migration can be difficult to estimate as information on migratory moves is not registered in the UK. As a result proxy measures (National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR); Community Health Index (CHI); and International Passenger Survey (IPS)) are used. 2. Total population 2.1. Aberdeen City On 30th June 2016 the estimated population of Aberdeen City was 229,840. This equates to 4.2% of Scotland’s total population (5,404,700). The estimated population of Aberdeen City has decreased slightly (-0.2%) between mid 2015 (estimated population of 230,350) and mid 2016. In Scotland as a whole, the population increased by 0.6% from 5,373,000 to 5,404,700. Table 1 shows the population estimates for Aberdeen City and Scotland for 2015 and 2016, giving the absolute and percentage changes between these dates. Research and Information, 2016 mid-year population estimates Page 3 Table 1: Total population, Aberdeen City and Scotland, mid 2015 and mid 2016 Change Percentage 2015 2016 between change 2015 and 2016 n n n % Aberdeen City 230,350 229,840 -510 -0.22% Scotland 5,373,000 5,404,700 31,700 0.59% Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables n = number, % = percentage 2.2. Comparison with other local authorities Aberdeen City is one of seven local authorities which have experienced a decrease in estimated population in the past year. Figure 1 shows the change in population between mid- 2015 and mid-2016 for all 32 local authorities and for Scotland (Aberdeen City and Scotland are highlighted in red). To enable comparison between local authorities with different population sizes the chart shows the percentage change. The largest decrease at 0.6% was Na h-Eileanan Siar. The largest increase in population was the City of Edinburgh with an increase of 1.7%. Full details of the estimated population for all local authorities, including absolute and percentage change between mid-2015 and mid-2016 are given in Appendix 1. Figure 1: Percentage change in estimated population by local authority, mid 2015 to mid 2016 Na h-Eileanan Siar -0.6% Inverclyde -0.4% Angus -0.3% North Ayrshire -0.2% Aberdeen City -0.2% Dumfries and Galloway -0.1% Shetland Islands 0.0% Dundee City 0.0% Clackmannanshire 0.0% South Ayrshire 0.1% East Ayrshire 0.1% Aberdeenshire 0.1% West Dunbartonshire 0.3% South Lanarkshire 0.3% North Lanarkshire 0.3% Highland 0.3% Argyll and Bute 0.3% Scottish Borders 0.4% Perth and Kinross 0.5% East Dunbartonshire 0.5% Moray 0.6% Scotland 0.6% Fife 0.6% Falkirk 0.6% Renfrewshire 0.8% Orkney Islands 0.8% West Lothian 0.9% East Renfrewshire 0.9% Stirling 1.0% East Lothian 1.0% Midlothian 1.4% Glasgow City 1.4% City of Edinburgh 1.7% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Source: National Records of Scotland, Mid-2016 Population Estimates, Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year- population-estimates/mid-2016/list-of-tables Research and Information, 2016 mid-year population estimates Page 4 2.3. Components of change As noted previously, population change is calculated from two main components; (1) natural change (births minus deaths) and (2) estimated net civilian migration (the sum of migration to/from Scotland and internal migration). It also includes other changes (e.g. changes in prisoner and armed forces population) although these tend to make up a smaller proportion of changes. In Aberdeen City, while there was a positive natural change (440) between mid- 2015 and mid-2016, there was negative net migration (-969) over the period. In contrast, in Scotland there was negative natural change (although this was very small) and positive net migration.