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Australian Defence Force JOURNAL ISSUE No. 196, 2015 CONTENTS CHAIR’S COMMENTS 2 FORTHCOMING SEMINARS AND CONFERENCES 4 ARTICLES Australia’s Submarine Capability 5 Vice Admiral Tim Barrett, AO, CSC, RAN, Chief of Navy Navigating Uncertain Times: the need for an Australian ‘grand strategy’ 10 Colonel Wade Stothart, DSC, AM, Australian Army Formulating the 2015 Defence White Paper 18 Craig Beutel, Department of Defence ‘There is nothing new under the sun’: an early Australian coalition operation, South Africa, 1900 27 Associate Professor Craig Stockings, University of New South Wales An Embedded Staff Officer in Afghanistan: observations from ‘The Engine Room’ 39 Brigadier M.A. Thompson, AM, Australian Army Chaplaincy in Mental Health Treatment 44 Chaplain Peter Devenish-Meares, Australian Army The Future of the ADF 51 Wing Commander Andrew Hoffmann, CSC, RAAF Evolution of the Battlefield: strategic and legal challenges to developing an effective cyber warfare policy 60 Sub Lieutenant Nam Nguyen, RAN Predicting Future War 70 Dr Robert A. Johnson, University of Oxford Workplace Flexibility in the ADF: anathema or panacea? 79 Emma Wensing, Department of Defence Dr Samantha Crompvoets, Australian National University BOOK REVIEWS 94 1 CHAIR’S COMMENTS Welcome to Issue No. 196 of the Australian Defence Force Journal. This edition contains several articles of direct relevance to the forthcoming 2015 Defence White Paper, including the feature article on Australia’s submarine capability by the Chief of Navy. It is also particularly pleasing that the issue includes an impressive cross-section of contributors, from each of the Services, from a wide range of ranks, and from both public servants and academics, reflecting the disparate nature of those who now regularly contribute to the ‘contest of ideas’ regarding the ADF and the ‘profession of arms’ in Australia. The article by Colonel Wade Stothart, arguing the need for an Australian ‘grand strategy’, has been judged the ‘best article’ in this issue. Colonel Stothart, who attended the 2014 Defence and Strategic Studies Course at the Australian Defence College, will receive a certificate personally signed by the CDF and Secretary of Defence. Craig Beutel, who attended the 2014 Australian Command and Staff College staff course, then usefully compares the 2009 and 2013 Defence White Papers, highlighting some conclusions that may be relevant to the 2015 paper. This is followed, as an interesting historical digression, by an article from Associate Professor Craig Stockings on Australian ‘coalition’ operations in South Africa in 1900. Although his analysis has no direct ‘so what’ for the ADF, astute readers will no doubt deduce some important lessons for contemporary operations. Brigadier Marcus Thompson provides some observations from his deployment as an ‘embedded’ staff officer in Afghanistan, making a number of recommendations particularly related to enhanced interoperability with the US. Chaplain Peter Devenish-Meares then offers some thoughtful insights into the treatment of mental health, drawing from his experience in support of recent operational deployments. Wing Commander Andrew Hoffmann, another student from the 2014 Australian Command and Staff College staff course, addresses the ‘future of the ADF’, using lessons from the Second World War and the Cold War to inform the way ahead for the ADF as it prepares for the next 15 years. Sub Lieutenant Nam Nguyen then examines some of the strategic and legal challenges in developing an effective cyber warfare capability, a topic of undoubted contemporary importance. Dr Robert Johnson of Oxford University offers a discerning analysis of the difficulties of predicting future war, arguing that while the current trends of war are an incomplete guide to the future operating environment, they give some shape to its likely direction. The final article is a joint contribution by Emma Wensing and Dr Samantha Crompvoets on workplace flexibility in the ADF, complementing the article by Associate Professor Abby Cathcart and colleagues which we featured in our last edition. The issue concludes with a selection of book reviews. As always, we remain keen to hear from readers wishing to join the list of reviewers, who are sent books provided to the Editor by publishers. If you are interested, please provide your contact details and area of interest to the Editor at [email protected] We will also shortly be updating the ‘guidance to reviewers’, providing clearer guidelines on the purpose of such reviews and what we would expect them to contain. 2 The July/August edition will be a ‘general’ issue, although—depending on the timing of its release—we will welcome further contributions relating to the 2015 Defence White Paper. Contributions for that issue should be submitted to the Editor, at the email address above, by mid May. Submission guidelines are on the Journal website: see www.adfjournal.adc.edu.au I hope you enjoy this edition and would encourage your contribution to future issues. Simone Wilkie, AM Major General Commander, Australian Defence College Chair of the Australian Defence Force Journal Board 3 FORTHCOMING SEMINARS AND CONFERENCES 30 March-1 April 2015 Australia’s Future Surface Fleet Conference Australian Strategic Policy Institute Hyatt Hotel, Canberra https://www.aspi.org.au/events/australias-future-surface-fleet-conference 31 March 2015 AMP China Lecture Professor Cheng Li Lowy Institute, Sydney http://www.lowyinstitute.org/events/amp-china-lecture-sydney 5-6 May 2015 DSTO Partnerships Week DSTO Edinburgh http://www.dsto.defence.gov.au/event/dsto-partnerships-week-2015 6-8 October 2015 Sea Power Conference Theme ‘The Future of Sea Power’ SydneyPacific 2015 Exhibition - RAN Centre, Glebe http://www.pacific2015.com.au NOTE To advertise forthcoming seminars and conferences in future issues of the Journal, please email details to the Editor [email protected] 4 Australia’s Submarine Capability 1 Vice Admiral Tim Barrett, AO, CSC, RAN, Chief of Navy Perhaps, in part, because I spent so much of my early career hunting submarines, as an aviator in Sea King helicopters, I feel a great affinity with our submariners. Military aviation and submarines both came of age a century ago; they are both defining capabilities for all modern naval forces; they both place unique demands on people and systems in unforgiving environments; and they often enjoy an enviable esprit de corps. Looking back over the history of our submarines over the past 100 years, I see much from which we might learn and a great deal of which the RAN can be very proud. The first thing that we can learn is the value of a balanced fleet. In 1914, the RAN was a small but effective force. Over the first few months of the First World War, it carried out most of the tasks we would expect the Navy to be able to carry out today. The Navy successfully transported the Australian Naval and Military Expeditionary Force to Rabaul and the first Anzac convoy to the Middle East—two events which have recently been commemorated. These were our first amphibious operations and some of our first strategic lift tasks. While the Rabaul operation was not without cost, with the submarine AE1 in particular being lost at sea, our ships cooperated with British, Japanese and French vessels to seize Germany’s Pacific colonies and to shut down its communications network in the region. The Navy was successful in its first ship-on-ship engagement—and in November 2014 I attended the ceremony at Cocos Island where we commemorated the crews of both HMAS Sydney and SMS Emden— crews who fought their ships to their utmost and then, once the battle was over, put the same energy into saving life. And in 1915, just a year after its delivery voyage, the submarine AE2 was successful in offensive operations; the first Allied submarine to penetrate the Dardanelles and enter the Sea of Marmora. The Navy also played a large role in deterring the German East Asian Squadron from operating around Australia and our region. It is worth understanding how that deterrent effect was achieved—a subject which is very well captured in Dr David Stevens’ new history of the Navy in the First World War, In All Respects Ready.2 It describes the significant achievement of having a balanced capable fleet, including our two submarines, available and ready for operations from the outset of the war, and their immediate deployment to secure our interests in the Pacific and beyond. That Fleet was significant on many accounts but not the least as a clear statement of the nation’s intent to uphold its sovereignty, secure its borders and protect its interests—and as an irrefutable demonstration of its capacity to do so. The deterrent effect of the Fleet was largely resident in the capabilities of the battlecruiser HMAS Australia, just as today it is largely resident in our submarine capability, our principal strategic deterrent. Against that background, I think it worthwhile to set out again why Australia has submarines as part of a balanced Navy and ADF force structure. So, why do we have submarines? The short answer is ‘deterrence’. In many minds, deterrence is associated with nuclear weapons and the world’s major powers. However, deterrent effects are not only derived from nuclear weapons. While other nations and larger navies achieve a strategic deterrent effect through the deployment of nuclear weapons, Australia as a middle and regional power can and does achieve a similar effect through its conventional submarine capability. The ability of our submarines to deploy at range and exercise freedom of manoeuvre, while avoiding counter-detection, is predicated on the preservation of stealth—the ultimate tenet of submarine operations. Importantly, because of their attributes, our submarines present as the most capable anti- 5 submarine warfare platforms in the ADF. They are also likely to be the only naval vessels capable of secure operations along the full length of Australia's sea lines of communication in the foreseeable future, particularly in otherwise non-permissive environments and during combat operations.
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