DOCSLIB.ORG

Draft List of Participants

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Draft List of Participants Draft List of Participants 24th session of the Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate (AOPC-24) Ms Imke Durre Mr Rainer Hollmann Center for Weather and Climate Deutscher Wetterdienst NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Offenbach, Germany Information (NCEI) Asheville, NC, United States Mr Kenneth Holmlund Mr Robert H. Holzworth European Organisation for the Exploitation of University of Washington Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Seattle, WA, United States Darmstadt, Germany Mr Dale F. Hurst Ms Elizabeth Kent NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory University of Southampton Waterfront Boulder, CO, United States Campus Southampton, United Kingdom Mr Shinya Kobayashi Mr Paolo Laj Japan Meteorological Agency Université Grenoble Alpes Tokyo, Japan Saint-Martin-d'Hères, France Mr Christian Lanconelli Ms Johanna Tamminen European Commission, Joint Research Centre Finnish Meteorological Institute Ispra, Italy Helsinki, Finland Mr Peter Thorne Mr Peng Zhang National University of Ireland Maynooth China Meteorological Administration Maynooth, Ireland National Satellite Meteorological Center Beijing, China 22nd session of the Ocean Observations Panel for Physics and Climate (OOPC-22) Mr Nic Bax Ms Maria Paz Chidichimo CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Universidad de Buenos Aires Hobart, Australia Buenos Aires, Argentina OOPC OOPC Ms Meghan Cronin Mr Masao Ishi National Oceanic and Atmospheric Japan Meteorological Agency Administration Meteorological Research Institute Seattle, WA, United States Tsukuba, Japan Mr Johannes Karstensen Ms Marjolaine Krug GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Research (CSIR) Kiel, Germany Stellenbosch, South Africa Mr Tony Lee Mr David Legler NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Pasadena, CA, United States Administration / Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Silver Spring, MD, United States Mr Eitarou Oka Mr Matthew Palmer The University of Tokyo Met Office Kashiwa Chiba, Japan Exeter, United Kingdom Ms Bernadette Sloyan Ms Sabrina Speich CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Flagship Ecole Normale Supérieure (Paris), Laboratoire Hobart, Australia de Météorologie Paris, France Mr Toste Tanhua Mr Maciej Telszewski GEOMAR International Ocean Carbon Coordination Kiel, Germany Project Sopot, Poland Ms Karina von Schuckman Mr Robert Weller Mercator Ocean International Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Ramonville Saint-Agne, France Woods Hole, MA, United States Mr Weidong Yu National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Beijing, China 21st session of the Terrestrial Observation Panel for Climate (TOPC-21) Ms Sarah Carter Mr Stephan Dietrich GOFC-GOLD. Wageningen University Federal Institute of Hydrology Bundesanstalt Wageningen, The Netherlands für Gewässerkunde Koblenz, Germany - 2 - Mr Hiroyuki Enomoto Mr Darren John Ghent National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) University of Leicester Tokyo, Japan National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) Leicester, United Kingdom Ms Nadine Gobron Mr Werner Kutsch European Commission Intergrated Carbon Observation System Joint Research Centre (ICOS ERIC) Ispra, Italy Helsinki, Finland Ms Huilin Li Ms Claudia Ruz Vargas Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and International Groundwater Centre (IGRAC) Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Delft, The Netherlands Academy of Sciences (CAREERI/CAS) Beijing, China Mr Philippe Schoeneich Mr Nigel Tapper Institut de Géographie Alpine Monash University Grenoble, France Clayton, VIC, Australia Mr Wolfgang Wagner Vienna University of Technology Vienna, Austria GCOS Joint Panels Meeting Mr Stephen Briggs Mr Omar Chafki GCOS Steering Committee Chairperson Permanent Representative of Morocco with Cambridge, United Kingdom WMO Mr Albertus Johannes Han Dolman Mr Johnny Johannessen VU University Amsterdam Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Amsterdam, The Netherlands Center Bergen, Norway Ms Joanna Post Ms Wafae Badi United Nations Framework Convention on Direction de la Météorologie Nationale Climate Change (UNFCCC) Casablanca, Morocco Bonn, Germany Mr Michael P. Meredith Ms María José Sanz British Antarctic Survey Scientific Campus of the University of the Cambridge, UK Basque Country Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain - 3 - 8th Session of the WCRP Data Advisory Council (WDAC-8) Ms Dorothea Bakker Mr Pavel Kabat University of East Anglia (UEA) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Norwich, United Kingdom Geneva, Switzerland Mr Christian Kummerow Mr Michel Rixen Colorado State University World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Fort Collins, CO, United States Geneva, Switzerland Ms Anna Rutgersson Mr Andrea Storto University of Uppsala Centre for Maritime Research and Uppsala, Sweden Experimentation (CMRE La Spezia, Italy Ms Susann Tegtmeier Mr Jean-Noel Thépaut Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Kiel, Germany Forecasts (ECMWF) Reading, United Kingdom 10th session of the Joint CEOS-CGMS Working Group on Climate (WGClimate-10) Mr Werner Balogh Mr Bojan Bojkov World Meteorological Organization (WMO) European Organisation for the Exploitation of Geneva, Switzerland Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Darmstadt, Germany Ms Selma Cherchali Mr David Crisp Centre National d'Études Spatiales (CNES) NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Toulouse, France Pasadena, CA, United States Mr Mark Dowell Mr Steven Hosford European Commission European Space Agency (ESA) / Centre National d'Études Spatiales (CNES) Joint Research Centre Frascati, Italy Ispra, Italy Mr Robert Husband Mr Toshiyuki Kurino European Organisation for the Exploitation of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Geneva, Switzerland Darmstadt, Germany Mr Akihiko Kuze Mr Pascal Lecomte Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) European Space Agency (ESA)/ECSAT Tsukuba, Japan Oxfordshire, United Kingdom Mr Chris Merchant Ms Alexandra Nunes UK Space Agency (UKSA) Hamtec Consulting Ltd. c/o EUMETSAT Reading, United Kingdom Darmstadt, Germany - 4 - Mr Simon Pinnock Mr Jeff Privette European Space Agency (ESA)/ECSAT Center for Weather and Climate (CWC) Oxfordshire, United Kingdom NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Asheville, NC, United States Mr Joachim Saalmüller Mr Joerg Schulz European Organisation for the Exploitation of European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Darmstadt, Germany Darmstadt, Germany Ms Eunha Sohn Ms Wenying Su Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) NASA Langley Research Center Jincheon-gun, Republic of Korea Hampton, VA, United States Mr Ben Veihelmann Mr Albrecht von Bargen European Space Agency (ESA)/ESTEC German Aerospace Center (DLR) Noordwijk, The Netherlands Bonn, Germany GCOS Secretariat Mr Valentin Aich Mr Simon Eggleston World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Geneva, Switzerland Geneva, Switzerland Ms Katy Hill Mr Tim Oakley World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Geneva, Switzerland Geneva, Switzerland Ms Carolin Richter Ms Caterina Tassone World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Geneva, Switzerland Geneva, Switzerland ____________________ - 5 - .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Scientific Collaborations (2014-2019)
    Scientific Collaborations (2014-2019) NOAA ● National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service ○ Center for Satellite Applications and Research ○ CoastWatch ○ National Centers for Environmental Information ○ OceanWatch ● National Marine Fisheries Service ○ Alaska Fisheries Science Center ○ Northeast Fisheries Science Center ○ Northwest Fisheries Science Center ○ Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center ○ Office of Science and Technology ○ Southeast Fisheries Science Center ○ Southeast Regional Office ○ Southwest Fisheries Science Center ● National Ocean Service ○ U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System ■ Caribbean Regional Association for Coastal Ocean Observing (CARICOOS) ■ Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System (GCOOS) ● Gulf of Mexico Coastal Acidification Network (GCAN) ■ Mid-Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing System (MARACOOS) ■ Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) ■ Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA) ● Southeast Ocean and Coastal Acidification Network (SOCAN) ○ National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science ○ National Geodetic Survey ○ Office of National Marine Sanctuaries ■ Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary ■ Flower Gardens Bank National Marine Sanctuary ■ National Marine Sanctuary of American Samoa ■ Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary ○ Office of Response and Restoration ● National Weather Service ○ Climate Prediction Center ○ Environmental Modeling Center ○ National Centers for Environmental Prediction ○ National Data Buoy Center ○ National Hurricane Center 1 ○ Office
    [Show full text]
  • List of Participants
    WMO Sypmposium on Impact Based Forecasting and Warning Services Met Office, United Kingdom 2-4 December 2019 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS Name Organisation 1 Abdoulaye Diakhete National Agency of Civil Aviation and Meteorology 2 Angelia Guy National Meteorological Service of Belize 3 Brian Golding Met Office Science Fellow - WMO HIWeather WCRP Impact based Forecast Team, Korea Meteorological 4 Byungwoo Jung Administration 5 Carolina Gisele Cerrudo National Meteorological Service Argentina 6 Caroline Zastiral British Red Cross 7 Catalina Jaime Red Cross Climate Centre Directorate for Space, Security and Migration Chiara Proietti 8 Disaster Risk Management Unit 9 Chris Tubbs Met Office, UK 10 Christophe Isson Météo France 11 Christopher John Noble Met Service, New Zealand 12 Dan Beardsley National Weather Service NOAA/National Weather Service, International Affairs Office 13 Daniel Muller 14 David Rogers World Bank GFDRR 15 Dr. Frederiek Sperna Weiland Deltares 16 Dr. Xu Tang Weather & Disaster Risk Reduction Service, WMO National center for hydro-meteorological forecasting, Viet Nam 17 Du Duc Tien 18 Elizabeth May Webster South African Weather Service 19 Elizabeth Page UCAR/COMET 20 Elliot Jacks NOAA 21 Gerald Fleming Public Weather Service Delivery for WMO 22 Germund Haugen Met No 23 Haleh Kootval World Bank Group 24 Helen Bye Met Office, UK 25 Helene Correa Météo-France Impact based Forecast Team, Korea Meteorological 26 Hyo Jin Han Administration Impact based Forecast Team, Korea Meteorological 27 Inhwa Ham Administration Meteorological Service
    [Show full text]
  • SRNWP-V Programme: a Comparison of Regional European Forecast Models
    SRNWP-V programme: a comparison of regional European forecast models Clive Wilson , Marion Mittermaier Sep 2011 © Crown copyright Met Office Outline & motivation • Short Range Numerical Weather Prediction – EUMETNET programme • Desire to benchmark operational models cf CBS global exchange • Phase 1 2009-2010 • Establish framework, recommend methods • Phase 2 2011-2012 • Continue comparison, more parameters • Use radar/extra observations • Extremal measures © Crown copyright Met Office EUMETNET/SRNWP programme - Deliverables • D1: Operational verification comparison of deterministic forecasts from one version of each of the 4 regional models of Europe (available for all the participating members) • D2: Additional intercomparison of other versions of the consortia models including high resolution models • D3: Inventory and recommendations of “new” scale-selective verification methods. • D4: Catalogue of sources of non-GTS data • D5 Exchange methods and code for verification of severe weather forecasts © Crown copyright Met Office 15km 12km 7km 10km 5 km (10km) Hirlam UM COSMO ALADIN Aladin-Lace © Crown copyright Met Office Parameter Scores Mean sea level mean bias and root mean pressure square errors 2m temperature Bias, rmse 2m relative humidity Bias, rmse mean bias speed error 10m winds and root mean square vector wind error equitable threat score and 6 hourly total frequency bias for 0.5, precipitation 1.0 and 4.0 mm 6h -1 © Crown copyright Met Office Key Model Label Hirlam reference run by FMI UK-FI Aladin-France run by Meteo-France
    [Show full text]
  • Magazine Issue 35 | Improvements to the Seasonal Forecast System and the New UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) Which Come out Next Year
    Barometer Magazine issue 35 | www.metoffice.gov.uk improvements to the seasonal forecast system and the new UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) which come out next year. I also refocused the climate science programme Professor Stephen onto both science and services, and substantially increased Belcher, Met Office Chief our international work, for example through the Climate Scientist, describes his Science for Service Partnership China (CSSP China). passion for his new role Capitalising on the new supercomputer and work addressing the Our new supercomputer was delivered ahead of schedule challenges of big data which has meant that many of the latest science upgrades and climate change. are now going operational and are helping to improve our forecasts (page 19). Leading science A new supercomputer also means huge volumes of data. July 2017 Now, data is one thing, but information is another, so we are Barometer is a controlled circulation magazine looking at intelligent ways of creating useful information distributed free of charge to decision-makers in to services government, science and commerce, for whom and extracting value from that data (page 4). That is where weather and climate information has an impact. the science to service aspect comes in. Improvements to Product information is correct at the time of eing Chief Scientist at the Met Office is a wonderful our weather and climate models will enable development publication but may be subject to change. job because of the broad range of science done of better services, particularly relevant in our support of the For queries about Barometer contact: in the Met Office, as well as the world-leading scientists Government’s emerging Industrial Strategy (page 7) and in Jon Stanford who produce it.
    [Show full text]
  • Public Weather Service Value for Money Review
    Public Weather Service Value for Money Review March 2015 Mike Gray Public Weather Service Customer Group Secretariat Page 1 of 25 Public Weather Service Value for Money Review Executive Summary Through analysing existing studies and literature on the economic value of weather forecasts, and using up to date figures, this review concludes with high confidence that the benefits of the Public Weather Service (PWS) to the UK are very likely to exceed £1bn per annum, and are likely to be close to £1.5bn per annum. This is consistent with the findings of the previous value for money study prepared for the PWS Customer Group (PWSCG) by PA from 2007 which assessed the economic benefits of the PWS at £614m per annum and, given its limited scope, considered the benefits to be many times that figure. Sectors considered in the review were the perceived value to the public (which had an estimated benefit of £480m per annum), value to aviation (£400m per annum), added value to other sectors of the economy (£400m per annum), storm damage avoidance (£80m per annum), value to land transport (£100m per annum) and flood damage avoidance (£64m per annum). Other benefits included the hosting of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) in the UK (£60m per annum) and business of over €200m for the UK space industry by being able to bid for EUMETSAT (the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) contracts by virtue of UK membership paid for by the PWS. It is estimated that the PWS contributes to reducing deaths from high impact weather by many tens per year, and many more during individual severe events such as North Sea coastal flooding.
    [Show full text]
  • Advanced GNSS Tropospheric Products for Monitoring Severe
    Advanced GNSS Tropospheric Products for Monitoring Severe Weather Events and Climate Jonathan Jones • Guergana Guerova Jan Douša • Galina Dick • Siebren de Haan Eric Pottiaux • Olivier Bock • Rosa Pacione Roeland van Malderen Editors Advanced GNSS Tropospheric Products for Monitoring Severe Weather Events and Climate COST Action ES1206 Final Action Dissemination Report Funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union Editors Jonathan Jones Guergana Guerova Met Office Physics Faculty, Department of Meteorology and Exeter, UK Geophysics Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski” Jan Douša Sofia, Bulgaria Geodetic Observatory Pecný, RIGTC Ondřejov, Czech Republic Galina Dick GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Siebren de Haan Helmholtz Centre Potsdam Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Potsdam, Germany De Bilt, The Netherlands Eric Pottiaux Olivier Bock Royal Observatory of Belgium IGN Institut national de l’information Brussels, Belgium géographique et forestière Paris, France Rosa Pacione e-GEOS/Centro di Geodesia Spaziale-Agenzia Roeland van Malderen Spaziale Italiana Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) Matera, MT, Italy Brussels, Belgium This publication is based upon work from COST Action ES1206: Advanced Global Navigation Satellite Systems tropospheric products for monitoring severe weather events and climate, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). www.cost.eu COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) is a funding agency for research and innovation networks. Our Actions help connect research initiatives across Europe and enable scientists to grow their ideas by sharing them with their peers. This boosts their research, career and innovation. ISBN 978-3-030-13900-1 ISBN 978-3-030-13901-8 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-13901-8 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This work is subject to copyright.
    [Show full text]
  • The Public Weather Service's Contribution to the UK Economy
    Met Office The Public Weather Service’s contribution to the UK economy May 2007 “The Met Office is a big success story. You are world leaders in your field. Renowned and respected throughout the world to the extent you’re practically a global brand. We in the MoD are absolutely determined to make sure you stay that way.” Under Secretary of State for Defence “The Met Office have set up a unit internally which is excellent at providing emergency response data, critical to our ability to plan for a nuclear incident.” Defra “The independent capability of the Met Office provides a latitude in decision making for the MoD that otherwise would not be possible.” MoD “The work of the Met Office based on PWS’ model allows the UK to punch above its weight in terms of climate change insight.” Defra “The work being carried out by the Met Office is integral to the ongoing success of the National Traffic Control Centre, reducing loss of life, injury, and damage to property.” Highways Agency “The Met Office bring a clear, well considered and precise view to the table. This was particularly evident in the Buncefield incident which allowed our team to make appropriate decisions at critical times.” Cabinet Office The Met Office's model is great. It provides an invaluable input to our preparations for dealing with bluetongue - enabling us to have an idea of when the midges might arrive on these shores.” Contingency Planning Director, State Veterinary Service “The Severe Weather Warnings issued by you last week made sure the country was able to prepare and plan.
    [Show full text]
  • Review of Met Office Weather Forecast Accuracy
    REVIEW OF MET OFFICE WEATHER FORECAST ACC URACY Weather Forecasts National Grid currently procures its main weather forecasts for electricity demand forecasting from the Met Office. National Grid is currently in the middle of a three year contract for these forecasts. The Met Office won the contract via an open tender process run by National Grid in accordance with all National Grid’s standard procurement policies. As part of the tender assessment process, the accuracy of trial forecasts provided by different companies tendering for the contract were assessed. During this process the Met Office was found to be the most accurate of the companies that tendered for the contract. The Met Office state on their website that “The World Meteorological Organization compares similar statistics among national meteorological services around the world. These show that the Met Office is consistently one of the top two operational services in the world.” (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/accuracy/forecasts) Use of Weather Forecasts in Electricity Demand Forecasts Weather forecasts are used in three areas of electricity demand forecasting. The first area is in forecasting consumer demand. People are more likely to put heating on if it is cold, or turn air conditioning on if it is hot, or turn the lights on earlier if it is dull and overcast. National Grid derive correlations between demand at different cardinal points of the day and a variety of weather variables, primarily average temperature over last four hours, average temperature at a specific time of day over the last few days, weighted towards most recent temperatures, wind speed and light levels.
    [Show full text]
  • Helping You Understand the Facts About Weather Forecasting Forecasting the Weather Is Essential to Help You Prepare for the Best and the Worst of Our Climate
    Clarity Helping you understand the facts about weather forecasting Forecasting the weather is essential to help you prepare for the best and the worst of our climate. Met Office forecasters work 24/7, 365 days of the year, using one of the world’s largest supercomputers to predict the weather for hours, days, weeks, seasons and even years ahead. Operating as part of an international network to collect weather data, we also partner with research institutes worldwide to develop the very latest techniques. We strive to ensure that you always have the very best advice in print, on air, and via the web. Our forecasts for tomorrow are right six times out of seven. Here you will find some facts about weather forecasting – an insight into our foresight. Weather forecasting — the big picture 01 Observations are essential FACT 1 — Before we forecast the weather, we collect observations. Observations Assimilation Observations of the weather are made Next we turn observational data into a 24 hours a day, all over the world. numerical representation of the current The main observations are from weather atmospheric conditions. This process is satellites, balloons, land­based known as assimilation. instruments, ships, buoys and aircraft. Small changes in atmospheric conditions Each day, the Met Office uses around lead to very different weather patterns, half a million observations of so it’s vital that the current state of the temperature, pressure, wind speed and atmosphere is represented as accurately direction, humidity and many other as possible. properties to provide the starting conditions of our weather forecast model. We continually update our Copyright European Space Agency (ESA), D.
    [Show full text]
  • Mahony, Elizabeth, Ed. a South Asia Curriculum
    DOCUMENT RESUME ED 421 440 SO 029 232 AUTHOR Greenberg, Hazel Sara; Mahony, Elizabeth, Ed. TITLE A South Asia Curriculum: Teaching about India. INSTITUTION American Forum for Global Education, New York, NY. SPONS AGENCY Department of Education, Washington, DC. ISBN ISBN-09-44675-52-2 PUB DATE 1994-00-00 NOTE 443p. AVAILABLE FROM American Forum for Global Education, 45 John St., Suite 908, New York, NY 10038; telephone: 212-732-8606 ($60). PUB TYPE Guides - Non-Classroom (055) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC18 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Area Studies; *Asian Studies; Cultural Awareness; *Culture; Foreign Countries; Global Education; *Indians; Instructional Materials; Multicultural Education; *Non Western Civilization; Secondary Education; Social Studies; State Curriculum Guides; *World History IDENTIFIERS *India; New York ABSTRACT This curriculum evolved as an interactive cooperation between South Asian scholars and an educator/curriculum writer. The materials are congruent with the mandates of the New York State Global Studies program. Each lesson provides focus questions, performance objectives, procedures with accompanying student materials, and a summary/application. Teaching strategies also are included. Each student worksheet is keyed to thelesson with the same title and sequentially numbered worksheets. The teacher'sguide is divided into the following themes: (1) "The Physical/Historical Setting"; (2) "The Dynamics of Change"; (3) "Contemporary South Asian Nations and Cultures"; (4) "Economic Development in South Asia"; and (5)"South Asia in the
    [Show full text]
  • ECMWF, Met Office, UKSA
    Memo From: UK Space Agency, Met Office, ECMWF To: Ofcom Subject: Discussion of attenuation 175-191 GHz Date: 1 July 2020 Executive Summary The conclusion of this new study is that it has been determined that the protection provided by the additional path losses due to water vapour were over-estimated in the original Ofcom study. As a consequence, the proposed power limits and mitigation do not provide the expected level of protection to passive Earth Observation in the 175-191 GHz band and measurements from the AMSU-B and MHS instruments, which are used operationally for weather forecasting, including extreme events, would be at risk. In order to fully protect these measurements, we conclude that an additional 7 dB reduction in interference levels would be required. Introduction The recent Ofcom consultation “Supporting innovation in the 100-200 GHz range” focussed on sharing studies for bands centres on 118 and 183 GHz that are used by operational weather forecast and climate services. In undertaking technical studies on whether sharing is possible with the existing services using these bands, Ofcom made a number of assumptions. Of particular importance for the bands between 175-191 GHz, was that a global mean atmospheric profile was used to calculate atmospheric attenuation, to calculate how much an emission at the surface is reduced due to atmospheric absorption before reaching a sensor on a satellite. On examining this assumption, we note that this does not cater for cases where the atmosphere is much drier than the global mean profile. The strongest test would be to repeat the calculations assuming no atmospheric water vapour, because that is by construction the most extreme case possible (water vapour can’t go negative).
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Determining Probability-Circle Radii of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts with Multiple Ensembles JUNYA FUKUDA1 and MUNEHIKO YA
    Technical Review No. 21 (April 2019) RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center Determining Probability-Circle Radii of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts with Multiple Ensembles JUNYA FUKUDA1 and MUNEHIKO YAMAGUCHI2 1: Tokyo Typhoon Center, Forecast Department, Japan Meteorological Agency 2: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency 1. Introduction The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo – Typhoon Center (referred to here simply as “the Center”) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) revised its 70% probability-circle radii for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts in June 2016 and 2017 (Fukuda 2018). Table 1 shows the radii used as of April 2019, with those for 3- to 72-hour forecasts being determined in line with TC direction and speed and pre-determined based on verification results for operational TC track forecasts for the period from 2011 to 2015. The radii for 96- to 120-hour forecasts are determined in line with forecast confidence levels and TC direction/speed. Confidence levels are derived from cumulative ensemble spread1 calculated using outputs from the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS; Tokuhiro 2018), and the radii for different confidence levels are pre-determined based on verification results for the period from 2015 to 2016. As the methods used to determine probability-circle radii differ between 3- to 72-hour and 96- to 120-hour forecasts, there are discontinuities in the rate of radius increase. Although this discontinuity was alleviated to some extent with the above-mentioned radii upgrades in 2016 and 2017, the issue still remains (Figure 1). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) and World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) launched the North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP) in 2009 to explore the utility of ensemble forecasts, including multiple ensembles, and to promote such products for operational TC forecasting (Yamaguchi et al.
    [Show full text]