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By Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF NATURAL AND COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCES SCHOOL OF EARTH SCINCES A FUZZY APPROACH FOR MODELING POTENTIAL WIND FARM AREAS: A CASE OF HITOSA WOREDA, OROMIA REGION, ETHIOPIA By EBISA TESFAYE Advisor: Dr. Binyam Tesfaw A Thesis Submitted to School of Graduate Studies of Addis Ababa University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Masters of Science in Remote sensing and Geo-informatics Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa, Ethiopia June, 2016 ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF NATURAL AND COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCES SCHOOL OF EARTH SCINCES A FUZZY APPROACH FOR MODELING POTENTIAL WIND FARM AREAS: A CASE OF HITOSA WOREDA, OROMIA REGION, ETHIOPIA By: EBISA TESFAYE DINADE Advisor: Dr. Binyam Tesfaw A Thesis Submitted to School of Graduate Studies of Addis Ababa University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Science in Remote Sensing and Geo-informatics Addis Ababa University Addis Ababa, Ethiopia June, 2016 This is to certify that thesis prepared by EBISA TESFAYE DINADE, entitled: “A Fuzzy Approach for Modeling Potential Wind Farm Areas, A Case of HITOSA Woreda Oromia Region, Ethiopia” and submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Science in Remote sensing and Geo-informatics complies with the regulations of the university and meets the accepted standards with respect to the originality and quality. Signed by the Examining committee: Examiner Prof. Balakrishnan M. Signature_________________ Date_______ Dr.Worash Getaneh Signature_________________ Date_______ Advisor Dr. Binyam Tesfaw Signature_________________ Date_______ Chair person Prof. Gezahegn Yirgu Signature_________________ Date_______ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The completion of the Master thesis would not have been possible without the assistance of some people, whom I would like to thank. I wish to express my deepest appreciation and gratitude to my advisor, Dr. Binyam Tesfaw for sharing me his time for valuable discussions and giving me his kind and helpful guidance throughout this master’s thesis. Further, I would like to extend my thanks to all Earth Science Department staffs and my fellow friends for their unreserved help directly or indirectly during my study at Addis Ababa University. I have a great gratitude to acknowledge the Ethiopian Metrological Agency, Ministry of Water and Energy of Ethiopia (MoWE), Ethiopian Electric Power Cooperation(EEPC) and Geological Survey of Ethiopia for providing me the necessary data and information to carry out this research. Finally, I would like to thank my family for their selfless love and support in completion of the studies especially to my wife Lalise Waktola and my mother Abebech Ayele (Abuye), for their invaluable encouragements and supports. i Contents Acknowledgement………………………………………………………………………………….i List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………………...iv List of Figures ……………………………………………………………………………………..v Acronyms…………………………………………………………………………………………vi Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………………..vii CHAPTER ONE .............................................................................................................................. 1 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY ........................................................................................... 1 1.2. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM .......................................................................................... 3 1.3. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ............................................................................................... 4 1.3.1. General objective ........................................................................................................... 4 1.3.2. Specific objectives ......................................................................................................... 4 1.4. RESEARCH QUESTIONS ...................................................................................................... 4 1.5. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ............................................................................................ 5 1.6. LIMITATION OF THE STUDY ............................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER TWO ............................................................................................................................. 6 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................ 6 2.1. AN OVERVIEW OF RENEWABLE ENERGY ........................................................................... 6 2.1.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2. Source and types of energy ............................................................................................ 6 2.1.3. Importance of energy in the modern world ................................................................... 6 2.1.4. Energy in Ethiopia ......................................................................................................... 7 2.1.5. Renewable energy resources in Ethiopia ....................................................................... 8 2.1.6. Importance of wind farm ............................................................................................... 9 2.2. WIND ENERGY RESOURCES POTENTIAL IN ETHIOPIA ....................................................... 10 2.3. APPLICATION OF GIS IN POTENTIAL WIND FARM SITE SELECTION ................................... 11 2.4. FUZZY APPROACH FOR DECISION MAKING ....................................................................... 12 2.5. INFLUENTIAL FACTORS FOR POTENTIAL WIND FARM AREAS ............................................ 12 CHAPTER THREE ....................................................................................................................... 14 3. MATERIALS AND METHODS........................................................................................... 14 3.1. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA ................................................................................. 14 3.1.1. Location ....................................................................................................................... 14 3.1.2. Climate and topography ............................................................................................... 14 3.1.3. Population and economic activity ................................................................................ 15 3.1.4. Wind speed .................................................................................................................. 15 3.1.5. Land use Land cover .................................................................................................... 17 3.1.6. Geology ........................................................................................................................ 18 3.2. DATA DESCRIPTION AND SOFTWARE .............................................................................. 19 3.2.1. Data description ........................................................................................................... 19 3.2.2. Software packages used ............................................................................................... 19 ii 3.3. METHODS ....................................................................................................................... 19 3.3.1. Identification and evaluation of criteria ....................................................................... 20 3.3.2. Data collection ............................................................................................................. 26 3.3.3. Preprocessing ............................................................................................................... 26 3.3.4. Input dataset ................................................................................................................. 26 3.3.5. Explanatory variables autocorrelation. ........................................................................ 27 3.3.6. Protected areas ............................................................................................................ 28 3.3.7. Creating reclassified factor maps ................................................................................. 31 3.3.8. Fuzzy sets theory and crisp set theory ......................................................................... 41 3.3.9. Modeling Fuzzy Membership ...................................................................................... 42 3.3.10. Modeling Fuzzy AHP ................................................................................................ 42 3.3.11. Fuzzy aggregation ...................................................................................................... 50 3.3.12. Modeling spatial relationships of factors on final model .......................................... 51 3.3.13. Validation of the final model ..................................................................................... 53 CHAPTER FOUR.......................................................................................................................... 55 4. RESULTS .............................................................................................................................. 55 4.1. EXPLANATORY VARIABLES AUTOCORRELATION
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