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The Effect of Player Transfers on Stock Prices

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The Effect of Player Transfers on Stock Prices Master Thesis The effect of player transfers on stock prices An event study on European listed football clubs D. de Bakker BSc ANR: 874098 Supervisor: Prof. Dr. L.D.R. Renneboog Second reader / Chairperson: Dr. O.G. De Jonghe Department of Finance Graduation date: 14-11-2016 Abstract This study is conducted in the field of behavioral finance where certain events, in this case player transfers, are linked to asset prices. For 15 listed football clubs, player transfers as well as player and club characteristics have been examined for their effect on the stock price of the accompanying club through affecting the mood of investors. The results show that investors do appreciate both the acquiring of players as well as selling them, since significant higher stock prices were found at the first, second and 9th day after the deal was closed. These effects were also found on the short term, namely for the interval from the day before until the day after the transfer deal. Moreover, the more fees a team receives from transfers, the stronger the positive relationship between transfers and stock returns tends to be. This holds especially for the acquisition of middle aged experienced players, while buying a particular younger or older player for a high fee is followed by a negative impact on the stock price of buying clubs. This confirms the ‘overpricing’ effect partially, since the effect is not incorporated in all transfer making. The higher a club’s interest coverage, the lower stock returns are after sales, while higher stock prices are found after acquisitions whenever the club has high return on assets. No effects were found after players joined or left the team on a loan base. Moreover, transfer making has no impact at all on the stock prices of sponsors of listed clubs. ~ 2 ~ 1. Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... 2 Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 2 Literature overview ....................................................................................................................... 9 Part 1 Efficient Market .............................................................................................................................. 9 Part 1.2 Challenges to the efficient market hypothesis ......................................................................... 9 Part 2 Listed Football clubs overview ..................................................................................................... 10 Part 3 Social Mood .................................................................................................................................. 12 Part 3.1 Mood as proxy ....................................................................................................................... 12 Part 3.2 Characteristics of a good proxy ............................................................................................. 13 Part 4 From odds to expectations ............................................................................................................ 14 Part 5 Football games qualification and time framing ............................................................................ 15 Part 5.1 Announcement effect ............................................................................................................. 15 Part 5.2 Qualifying player transfers ..................................................................................................... 17 Part 6 The effect of match performance on mood and stock prices ........................................................ 18 Part 6.1 Mood effect in football .......................................................................................................... 18 Part 6.2 Stadtmann’s earnings model .................................................................................................. 19 Part 6.3 The Bosman Verdict .............................................................................................................. 20 Part 6.4 Effect of match performance on stock prices ......................................................................... 20 Part 7 Match performance on sponsors’ stock prices .............................................................................. 22 Part 8 Managerial turnover and the effect of player transfers ................................................................. 24 Part 8.1 Management changes ............................................................................................................. 24 Part 8.2 Managers and football players from a human resource perspective ...................................... 24 Part 8.3 The effect of player transfers ................................................................................................. 25 Chapter 3 Hypotheses section ..................................................................................................................... 27 Chapter 4 Data selection and methodology ................................................................................................. 31 ~ 3 ~ Part 4.1 Club selection ............................................................................................................................. 31 Part 4.2 Transfer data selection ............................................................................................................... 31 Part 4.3 Daily stock data selection .......................................................................................................... 35 Part 4.4 Computation of abnormal returns .............................................................................................. 37 Part 4.4.1 Event study: Step 1 ............................................................................................................. 37 Part 4.4.2 Event study: Step 2 ............................................................................................................. 38 Part 4.4.3 Event study: Step 3 ............................................................................................................. 39 Part 4.4.4 Event clustering................................................................................................................... 39 Chapter 5 Results......................................................................................................................................... 41 Part 5.1 Global transfer effects on listed clubs’ stock prices ................................................................... 41 Part 5.1.1 Global effect of transfers on clubs’ stock prices ................................................................. 42 Part 5.1.2 The effect of seasonality ..................................................................................................... 44 Part 5.1.3 The effect of fees................................................................................................................. 44 Part 5.2 Player characteristics.................................................................................................................. 47 Part 5.2.1 Descriptive statistics ........................................................................................................... 47 Part 5.2.2 Dummy transfer characteristics........................................................................................... 49 Part 5.3 Club characteristics .................................................................................................................... 58 Part 5.4 Sponsors ..................................................................................................................................... 60 Part 5.4.1 Global effects of transfers on sponsors’ stock prices .......................................................... 60 Part 5.4.2 The effect of seasonality ..................................................................................................... 60 Part 5.4.3 The effect of fees................................................................................................................. 61 Part 5.5 Sponsor ‘signing’ and ‘long-term’ effect ................................................................................... 63 Part 5.5.1 Sponsor signing effect ......................................................................................................... 63 Part 5.5.2 Sponsor Long-term effect ................................................................................................... 64 Chapter 6 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 65 References: .................................................................................................................................................. 69 ~ 4 ~ Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 74 Appendix 1 Abnormal returns per day .................................................................................................... 74 Appendix 2.1 Interactional dummy regression for sales of young players ............................................. 75 Appendix 2.2 Interactional dummy regression for acquisitions
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