INSTITUTE VARIETIES OF DEMOCRACY Democracy for All? V-DEM ANNUAL DEMOCRACY REPORT 2018 Table of Contents V-DEM ANNUAL REPOrt 2018 INTRODUCTION EXECUTivE SUMMARY V-DEM IN A NUTSHELL A WORD FROM THE V-DEM IN NUMBERS, TEAM COLLABORATIONS, METHODOLOGY, AND HisTORICAL V-DEM 05 06 08 SECTION 1 STATE OF THE WORLD 2017 – LiBERAL AND ELECTORAL DEMOCRACY 16 SECTION 2 INCLUsiON is AN ILLUsiON 34 SECTION 2.1 SECTION 2.2 SECTION 2.3 WOMEN’S INCLUsiON INCLUsiON OF SOCiaL POLITICAL EXCLUsiON AND ACCEss TO POWER GROUPS BasED ON SOCIO- ECONOMIC INEQUALITY 38 44 52 V-DEM UsERS V-DEM PUBLICATIONS REFERENCES PRACTITIONERS, ACadEMIC JOURNAL ACadEMICS, STUDENTS, ARTICLES FROM THE AND MUSEUMS V-DEM TEAM 58 60 69 APPENdiX COUNTRY SCORES FOR 2017 71 V-Dem is a unique approach to measuring democracy – historical, multidimensional, nuanced, and disaggregated – employing state- of-the-art methodology. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) produces the largest V-Dem measures hundreds of different attributes global dataset on democracy with some 19 million of democracy. V-Dem enables new ways to study data for 201 countries from 1789 to 2017. Involving the nature, causes, and consequences of democracy over 3,000 scholars and other country experts, embracing its multiple meanings. V-Dem is or has been funded by (not in order of magnitude): Development Agency, NORAD/the Norwegian Research Coun- Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, Knut & Alice Wallenberg Foundation, cil, International IDEA, Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos, Marianne & Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, the Swedish Research Aarhus University, the Quality of Government Institute and the Council, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, the European Research University of Notre Dame, with co-funding from the Vice Chancel- Council, the Danish Research Council, the European Union/the lor, the Dean of the Social Sciences, and the Department of Politi- European Commission, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs-Sweden, the cal Science at University of Gothenburg. Ministry of Foreign Affairs-Denmark, the Canadian International This publication has been produced with the assistance of the The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole authors and do not necessarily reflect an official position of the responsibility of the V-Dem Institute and can in no way be taken V-Dem Project or the V-Dem Steering Committee. to reflect the views of the European Union or any other donor. Produced by the V-Dem Institute V-Dem Data and Management Team: Joshua Krusell, V-Dem Institute: at the University of Gothenburg Johannes von Römer, Kyle Marquardt, Farhad Miri, Dan Department of Political Science Pemstein, Josefine Pernes, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, Brigitte University of Gothenburg V-Dem Annual Report Team: Anna Lührmann (Lead Author Seim Sprängkullsgatan 19, PO 711 and Coordination), Sirianne Dahlum, Staffan I. Lindberg, Laura Editors: Anna Lührmann, Staffan I. Lindberg SE 405 30 Gothenburg Sweden Maxwell, Valeriya Mechkova, Moa Olin, Shreeya Pillai, Constanza Editing/Proof-Reading: John Jennings [email protected] Sanhueza Petrarca, Rachel Sigman, Natalia Stepanova. Design: Anders Wennerström, Spiro Kommunikation AB +46 (0) 31 786 30 43 Printing: Response Tryck, Borås. May 2018 www.v-dem.net Copyright ©2018 by V-Dem Institute. All rights reserved. FOLLOW US ON SOCiaL MEdia twitter.com/vdeminstitute facebook.com/vdeminstitute website: www.v-dem.net V-DEM ANNUAL REPOrt 2018 5 A Word from the Team We are pleased to present our second Annual Democracy Report. John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I Lindberg, Svend-Erik We are proud and delighted to count you among our readers, and Skaaning, Jan Teorell – and the core group of scholars who are Pro- we hope that you find the report interesting, timely, and useful. ject Managers, to the global network of Country Experts, Country Coordinators and Regional Managers. We work with some 3,000 In the 2018 Democracy Report we find that global levels of democ- individuals from almost all the countries in the world in order to as- racy are still close to an all-time high. However, even though the semble the 19 million data points in the V-Dem datasets. Without electoral aspects of democracy have improved in many countries our truly experienced and knowledgeable experts providing nu- in recent years, freedom of expression, media, and civil society are anced, precise, and local expertise, V-Dem would not exist today. under threat in other parts of the world. The report identifies dis- We would like to extend a big thank you to our Country Experts, quieting trends in several key countries, such as Brazil, India, Poland, Country Coordinators and Regional Managers! Russia, Turkey, and the United States. Even though V-Dem is an academic mission at heart, we always The V-Dem project is a global collaboration headquartered at the strive to be relevant to the “real world”. Over the past years, we have V-Dem Institute, Department of Political Science, Gothenburg Uni- had the opportunity to collaborate and engage with many inter- versity. While more than 3,000 scholars and experts constitute the national organizations, governments, and NGOs, ranging from the global V-Dem team, the Institute is run by us - a team of 19 people. In World Bank, to the Swedish government, organizations like Bibli- addition to our aim of producing cutting edge research, we work all otheca Alexandrina, and grassroots groups in Nepal. With our V- year round employing unique, state of the art techniques to provide Dem Regional Centers around the globe that we are so proud of, you and other users with global data of the highest possible quality. our outreach activities continue to grow. We look forward to anoth- er year of fruitful collaboration with our partners around the world. Over the past year, we have focused on improving and expanding the vast V-Dem dataset even further – culminating in the release of We also hope that you will also find the series of working papers, the- version 8. For the very first time, data from ‘Historical V-Dem’ is in- matic briefs, country briefs, and policy briefs available on the website tegrated – expanding the coverage to 228 years from 1789 to 2017. (www.v-dem.net) helpful to support of democracy in practice. We are excited that the dataset now includes more than 200 politi- cal units and over 450 indicators and indices of democracy. We would like to thank everyone who has made, and continues to make, the V-Dem journey possible. Team spirit and a collaborative nature are key elements of V-Dem and the Institute. It permeates all the work we do and all parts of Sincerely, the team, from the Principal Investigators – Michael Coppedge, The V-Dem Institute Team 6 V-DEM ANNUAL REPOrt 2018 Executive summary The focus of the V-Dem Annual Democracy Report 2018 is “Democracy for All?” for two reasons. FiRST, CITIZENS – not just the territorial unit in which SECOND, EVEN IN DEMOCRACIES, some groups – they live – are central to democracy. In addition to the women, social groups, and the poor – are systemati- conventional averages across countries, we therefore cally disadvantaged from access to political power. analyze liberal and electoral democracy across the We therefore analyze political exclusion by gender, world weighted by the size of each country’s popula- social groups, and socio-economic status. tion. This metric captures better how many people in the world enjoy democratic rights and freedoms. The key findings are as follows. Global levels of democracy remain high, but autocratization – the decline of democratic attributes – affects 2.5 billion people and is gaining momentum Democracy is still in good standing across the world. Global Autocratization is now manifesting in a number of large levels of democracy remain close to their all-time high. countries including Brazil, India, Russia, Turkey, and the United States. For the first time since 1979, the number of countries back- sliding (24) on democracy is again the same as the number of Autocratization affects one third of the world’s population, or countries advancing. some 2.5 billion people. This represents a massive reduction in the global protection of rights and freedoms. Multiparty elections continue to improve, but are at risk of losing their meaning Core electoral aspects of democracy continue to improve in Aspects of democracy that make elections truly meaningful many countries. are in decline. Media autonomy, freedom of expression and alternative sources of information, and the rule of law have undergone the greatest declines among democracy metrics in recent years. This trend affects both autocracies and de- mocracies. Despite gradual advances, inclusion remains an illusion Liberal democracies are systematically better than other politi- Even in democracies, however, some groups – women, minori- cal regimes at ensuring the de facto ability of all citizens to in- ties and the poor – are systematically disadvantaged in their fluence the political process – including women, various social access to political power. Political exclusion reduces the scope groups, and individuals with different socio-economic status. of liberal and electoral democratic rights and freedoms. EXECUtivE SUMMary 7 Global average levels of inclusion of women and minority social groups remain stable Global average levels of inclusion of women and minority so- Only 15 percent of the world’s population, or 1.1 billion peo- cial groups remain stable. ple, live in a society where political power is distributed at least somewhat equally by gender. Several countries have continued to advance in terms of in- clusion for women. Half a billion people live in countries with higher levels of ex- clusion of minority social groups than ten years ago. Political exclusion due to socio-economic status is making the rich even more powerful Exclusion due to socio-economic status has continuously Insufficient access to healthcare or education limits the abil- become more severe since the 1970s.