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Assessment of Observed Changes and Responses in Natural and Managed Systems 1 Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems Coordinating Lead Authors: Cynthia Rosenzweig (USA), Gino Casassa (Chile) Lead Authors: David J. Karoly (USA/Australia), Anton Imeson (The Netherlands), Chunzhen Liu (China), Annette Menzel (Germany), Samuel Rawlins (Trinidad and Tobago), Terry L. Root (USA), Bernard Seguin (France), Piotr Tryjanowski (Poland) Contributing Authors: Tarekegn Abeku (Ethiopia), Isabelle Côté (Canada), Mark Dyurgerov (USA), Martin Edwards (UK), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Nicole Estrella (Germany), Donald L. Forbes (Canada), Bernard Francou (France), Andrew Githeko (Kenya), Vivien Gornitz (USA), Wilfried Haeberli (Switzerland), John Hay (New Zealand), Anne Henshaw (USA), Terrence Hughes (Australia), Ana Iglesias (Spain), Georg Kaser (Austria), R. Sari Kovats (UK), Joseph Lam (China), Diana Liverman (UK), Dena P. MacMynowski (USA), Patricia Morellato (Brazil), Jeff T. Price (USA), Robert Muir-Wood (UK), Peter Neofotis (USA), Catherine O’Reilly (USA), Xavier Rodo (Spain), Tim Sparks (UK), Thomas Spencer (UK), David Viner (UK), Marta Vicarelli (Italy), Ellen Wiegandt (Switzerland), Qigang Wu (China), Ma Zhuguo (China) Review Editors: Lucka Kajfež-Bogataj (Slovenia), Jan Pretel (Czech Republic), Andrew Watkinson (UK) This chapter should be cited as: Rosenzweig, C., G. Casassa, D.J. Karoly, A. Imeson, C. Liu, A. Menzel, S. Rawlins, T.L. Root, B. Seguin, P. Tryjanowski, 2007: Assess- ment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 79-131. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems Chapter 1 Table of Contents .......................................................81 Box 1.2 Wine and recent warming ....................................105 Executive summary 1.3.7 Human health .........................................................107 ..........................................................82 1.1 Introduction 1.3.8 Disasters and hazards............................................109 1.1.1 Scope and goals of the chapter...............................82 1.3.9 Socio-economic indicators ....................................111 1.1.2 Summary of observed changes in the TAR ..............83 1.4 Larger-scale aggregation and attribution 1.2 Methods of detection and attribution of ...................112 .................................................83 to anthropogenic climate change observed changes 1.4.1 Larger-scale aggregation ......................................112 1.2.1 Climate and non-climate drivers of change .............83 1.4.2 Joint attribution ......................................................112 1.2.2 Methods and confidence .........................................85 Box 1.3 Phenological responses to climate in Europe: the COST725 project.............................................113 1.3 Observed changes in natural and managed ...85 systems related to regional climate changes 1.3.1 Cryosphere ...............................................................85 1.5 Learning from observed responses: vulnerability, adaptation and research .....................................................................117 Box 1.1 Retreat of Chacaltaya and its effects: case needs study of a small disappearing glacier in Bolivia ......87 ......................................................................117 1.3.2 Hydrology and water resources ...............................90 References 1.3.3 Coastal processes and zones ..................................92 1.3.4 Marine and freshwater biological systems...............94 1.3.5 Terrestrial biological systems ...................................98 Supplementary material for this chapter is available on the CD-ROM accompanying this report. 1.3.6 Agriculture and forestry..........................................104 80 Chapter 1 Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems Executive summary mangroves, and increased damage from coastal flooding in many areas, although human modification of coasts, such as increased construction in vulnerable zones, plays an important Physical and biological systems on all continents and in role too (medium confidence). [1.3.3.2] most oceans are already being affected by recent climate changes, particularly regional temperature increases (very The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the high confidence) [1.3]. Climatic effects on human systems, ocean becoming more acidic, with an average decrease in pH of although more difficult to discern due to adaptation and 0.1 units. However, the effects of recent ocean acidification on non-climatic drivers, are emerging (medium confidence) the marine biosphere are as yet undocumented. [1.3.4] [1.3]. Global-scale assessment of observed changes shows that it is likely that anthropogenic warming over the last More evidence from a wider range of species and three decades has had a discernible influence on many communities in terrestrial ecosystems and substantial new physical and biological systems [1.4]. evidence in marine and freshwater systems show that recent warming is strongly affecting natural biological Attribution of observed regional changes in natural and managed systems (very high confidence). [1.3.5, 1.3.4] systems to anthropogenic climate change is complicated by the effects of natural climate variability and non-climate drivers The overwhelming majority of studies of regional climate effects (e.g., land-use change) [1.2]. Nevertheless, there have been on terrestrial species reveal consistent responses to warming several joint attribution studies that have linked responses in trends, including poleward and elevational range shifts of flora some physical and biological systems directly to anthropogenic and fauna. Responses of terrestrial species to warming across climate change using climate, process and statistical models the Northern Hemisphere are well documented by changes in [1.4.2]. Furthermore, the consistency of observed significant the timing of growth stages (i.e., phenological changes), changes in physical and biological systems and observed especially the earlier onset of spring events, migration, and significant warming across the globe very likely cannot be lengthening of the growing season. Changes in abundance of explained entirely by natural variability or other confounding certain species, including limited evidence of a few local non-climate factors [1.4.2]. On the basis of this evidence, disappearances, and changes in community composition over combined with the likely substantial anthropogenic warming the last few decades have been attributed to climate change (very over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except high confidence). [1.3.5] Antarctica (as described in the Working Group I Fourth Assessment Summary for Policymakers), it is likely that there is Many observed changes in phenology and distribution of a discernible influence of anthropogenic warming on many marine species have been associated with rising water physical and biological systems. temperatures, as well as other climate-driven changes in salinity, oxygen levels, and circulation. For example, plankton Climate change is strongly affecting many aspects of has moved poleward by 10° latitude over a period of four systems related to snow, ice and frozen ground (including decades in the North Atlantic. While there is increasing permafrost) [1.3.1]; emerging evidence shows changes in evidence for climate change impacts on coral reefs, separating hydrological systems, water resources [1.3.2], coastal zones the impacts of climate-related stresses from other stresses (e.g., [1.3.3] and oceans (high confidence) [1.3.4]. over-fishing and pollution) is difficult. Warming of lakes and Effects due to changes in snow, ice and frozen ground rivers is affecting abundance and productivity, community (including permafrost) include ground instability in permafrost composition, phenology, distribution and migration of regions, a shorter travel season for vehicles over frozen roads in freshwater species (high confidence). [1.3.4] the Arctic, enlargement and increase of glacial lakes in Although responses to recent climate changes in human mountain regions and destabilisation of moraines damming systems are difficult to identify due to multiple non-climate these lakes, changes inArctic andAntarctic Peninsula flora and driving forces and the presence of adaptation, effects have fauna including the sea-ice biomes and predators higher in the been detected in forestry and a few agricultural systems food chain, limitations on mountain sports in lower-elevation [1.3.6]. Changes in several aspects of the human health alpine areas, and changes in indigenous livelihoods in the Arctic system have been related to recent warming [1.3.7]. (high confidence). [1.3.1] Adaptation to recent warming is beginning to be systematically documented (medium confidence) [1.3.9]. The spring peak discharge is occurring earlier in rivers affected by snow melt, and there is evidence for enhanced glacial melt. In comparison with other factors, recent warming has been of Lakes and rivers around the world are warming, with effects on limited consequence in agriculture and forestry. A significant thermal structure
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