Revised Water Resources Management Plan 2020 to 2080 Our plan to secure water supplies for generations to come through shared know h2ow Revised Water Resources Management Plan 2020 to 2080 What we’ve been doing to date Future challenges Fixing90% of reported leaks 49% population increase in 48 hours Replacing 49.3 million litres of water a day which can’t be used in the future Investing £7 million in detecting leaks because it might not be sustainable 217 million litres of water extra needed a day 90% of customers metered by 2020 Reduce leaks by 43 million litres a day and Reducing water use through efficiency by 2% reduce per capita consumption by 40% by 2080 Climate change H2O Upgrading water treatment works Our £986 million*, 60 year plan to secure water supplies will provide an additional 267 We will need: million litres of water a day 2020 *Today’s prices 643 million litres Reduce leakage to of water a day Leak reduction 75.1 Ml/d and water efficiency Reduce per capita H2O consumption to Aylesford Water 139 l/h/d 2025 Treatment Works 654 million litres of water a day Leak reduction and water efficiency Reduce leakage to H2O Ml/d Water Treatment Works improvements 51.2 Reduce per capita consumption to Water Transfers 118 l/h/d Arlington Reservoir extension 2045 Broad Oak Reservoir 707 million litres of Reduce leakage to water a day Leak reduction and water efficiency 45.0 Ml/d Reduce per capita 2080 consumption to 814 million 90 l/h/d litres of water a day = 70 million litres Note: This infographic has been updated to reflect the rWRMP19 but has not been highlighted in yellow 3 Contents Executive summary 11 1. Overview 25 1.1 Introduction 25 1.1.1 SEA and HRA 26 1.1.2 Consultation 27 1.1.3 Improving links with our drought plan 27 1.1.4 Water Industry National Environment Programme (WINEP) 28 1.1.5 Links with our business plan 28 1.1.6 Drinking water quality 28 1.1.7 Baseline carbon 29 1.2 Introduction to South East Water 29 1.2.1 History of being separate water companies 30 1.2.2 Our eight water resource zones 30 1.2.3 Flood Risk Management Plan 31 1.3 Challenges and opportunities 31 1.3.1 Area of water stress 31 1.3.2 High reliance on groundwater 32 1.3.3 Biological diversity, cultural heritage and protected landscapes 32 1.3.4 Location within the south east of England – an area with a growing population and housing needs 34 1.3.5 Working with other water companies 34 1.4 What we have achieved since our last plan 34 1.4.1 Metering and water efficiency 35 1.4.2 Per capita consumption 36 1.4.3 Leakage reductions 36 1.4.4 New resource developments 36 1.4.5 Long-term planning 37 1.4.6 Water Industry National Environment Programme 37 Darwell raw water transfer 38 Groundwater abstraction at Greywell 38 1.4.7 Other commitments 39 1.5 Changes to how we prepare a water resources management plan 39 1.6 Problem characterisation 40 1.7 Levels of service 41 1.8 A summary of our overall approach 42 Revised Water Resources Management Plan 2020 to 2080 4 Contents continued 2. Collaboration and engagement 45 2.1 Introduction 45 2.2 Our approach to engagement 45 2.3 Phase 1: Pre-consultation engagement activities to develop the dWRMP19 47 2.3.2 Engagement with our CCG and customers 50 2.3.3 Engagement with other water companies 51 2.3.4 Engagement with third parties 53 2.4 Phase 2: Public consultation 53 2.4.1 New sources of information 53 2.4.2 Our household and vulnerable customers 54 2.4.3 Customer research 55 2.4.4 Our stakeholders 55 2.4.5 Environment Focus Group (EFG) and Customer Challenge Group (CCG) 56 2.4.6 Our colleagues 56 2.4.7 Media relations 56 2.4.8 Our non-household customers 56 2.5 Phase 3: Post-consultation and the statement of response 56 2.5.1 Representations received on our dWRMP19 57 2.6 Conclusion 59 3. How our plan has considered resilience 63 3.1 Defining resilience 63 3.2 Measuring resilience 63 3.3 Customers’ views of resilience 64 3.3.1 Developing a resilient customer approach 65 3.4 Level of service statement 65 3.5 Drought resilience statement 65 4. Baseline supply forecast 67 4.1 Introduction to supply forecast 67 4.2 Our baseline supply forecast 67 4.3 Our supply area 69 4.4 Changes since WRMP14 77 4.5 Water available for use 78 4.6 Baseline deployable output 79 4.7 Process losses, outage, bulk supplies and other changes 79 4.7.1 Process losses 80 southeastwater.co.uk 5 Contents continued 4.7.2 Outage 80 4.7.3 Bulk supplies 80 4.7.4 Other changes 81 4.8 Using our sources in combination (conjunctive use) 81 4.9 An environmentally resilient water supply 82 4.9.1 Climate change 82 4.9.2 Sustainability of current abstractions 84 4.9.3 Water quality 86 5. Baseline demand forecast 89 5.1 Baseline demand forecast 91 5.1.1 Metering impacts 91 5.1.2 Using water wisely: water efficiency 93 5.2 Base year starting position 93 5.3 Forecasting household demand 93 5.3.1 Population, property and occupancy numbers 93 5.3.2 Weather modelling for dry year and peak period 94 5.3.3 Micro-components of water use 95 5.3.4 Trends in water use 96 5.3.5 Household demand compared nationally 97 5.4 Forecasting non-household consumption 98 5.4.1 Approach to forecasting non-household demand 98 5.4.2 Non-household property numbers 100 5.4.3 Non-household peak factors 100 5.4.4 Our non-household demand forecast 100 5.5 Forecasting leakage 100 5.5.1 Current leakage performance 100 5.5.2 Baseline leakage forecast 101 5.6 Impacts of climate change 103 5.7 Other components of demand 103 6. Supply demand balance 105 6.1 Our supply demand balance 105 6.2 Planning horizon 110 6.3 Headroom assessment 110 6.3.1 Calculating target headroom 111 6.3.2 rWRMP19 target headroom 111 6.4 Taking account of greater uncertainty 112 Revised Water Resources Management Plan 2020 to 2080 6 Contents continued 7. Options 115 7.1 The options appraisal process in principle 115 7.1.1 Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for options appraisal 116 7.2 Option types 117 7.2.1 Third party options 119 7.3 The screening process 120 7.3.1 Unconstrained options list 120 7.3.2 Coarse screening of unconstrained options 121 7.3.3 Fine screening of constrained options 123 7.3.4 Environmental and social acceptability of constrained options 126 7.3.5 Promotability of constrained options 126 7.3.6 Deliverability of constrained options 127 7.3.7 Cost of constrained options 128 7.4 Feasible options 128 8. Decision making 131 8.1 Introduction 131 8.2 Constructing an enhanced optimisation model 134 8.3 Developing our dWRMP19 134 8.3.1 Step one: Developing a ‘conventional’ best value plan for dWRMP19 134 8.3.1.1 Planning for drought resilience 135 8.3.1.2 Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) – modelling to create a more environmentally resilient preferred plan 135 8.3.1.3 Sustainability reductions 136 8.3.1.4 Customer preference and willingness to pay 136 8.3.1.5 Reducing leakage by 15 per cent by 2025 138 8.3.1.6 Summary of findings from step one 138 8.3.2 Step two: Advanced decision making, consideration of a wider range of future uncertainty 139 8.3.2.1 Recognising uncertainty and ensuring an adaptable plan 140 8.3.2.2 Links to drought plan and more extreme drought events 142 8.3.2.3 Impact of high range climate change scenarios 143 8.3.2.4 Stress-testing of solutions 143 8.3.3 Step three: Comparison of our dWRMP19 with WRSE regional strategy 144 8.4 Developing our rWRMP19 144 8.4.1 Step four: Consultation on our dWRMP19 – our approach to incorporating representations 144 8.4.2 Step five: Developing a preferred plan for rWRMP19 145 8.4.2.1 Per capita consumption reductions 145 southeastwater.co.uk 7 Contents continued 8.4.2.2 Leakage 146 8.4.2.3 SEA/HRA 147 8.4.2.4 Summary of findings from step five 147 8.4.3 Step six: Comparison of our rWRMP19 with the WRSE regional strategy 150 8.4.3.1 Supply-side options 150 8.4.3.2 Regional transfers 150 8.4.3.3 Company transfers 151 8.4.3.4 Demand-side options 151 9. Our preferred plan 153 9.1 Introduction 153 9.2 Our preferred plan 153 9.3 Components of our preferred plan 160 9.3.1 Leakage 160 9.3.2 Water efficiency 162 9.3.3 Groundwater 163 9.3.4 Catchment management 164 9.3.5 Regional transfers 164 9.3.6 Reservoirs 165 9.3.7 Water treatment works 166 9.3.8 Inter-zonal transfers 166 9.3.9 Zonal transfers 166 9.4 Differences between our dWRMP19 and rWRMP19 167 9.5 Alternative schemes 169 9.5.1 Water re-use 169 9.5.2 Reservoirs 169 9.6 Building innovation into our preferred plan 170 10.