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Water Resources Management Plan 2019 Main Report Issue No. 1

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Water Resources Management Plan 2019 Main Report Issue No. 1 Water Resources Management Plan 2019 Main Report Issue No. 1 Project Owner: Alison Murphy Project Manager: Tom Kelly August 2019 SES Water WRMP 2019 Document Revision History Rev Purpose Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Initial draft for Director 1 AM AM TK TK 24/8/18 Approval Final draft for submission 2 AM AM TK TK 3/9/18 – Issue 1 Revised to include Defra 3 further information AM AM TK TK 6/5/19 requests – Issue 2 Final plan – authorisation 4 AM AM TK TK 20/8/19 to publish given by Defra Final Plan Page 2 of 112 20 August 2019 SES Water WRMP 2019 Security Statement This statement is to certify that this plan does not contain any information that would compromise national security interests. It also does not contain any information that may be considered commercially confidential. No information been excluded from this plan on these grounds. Final Plan Page 3 of 112 20 August 2019 SES Water WRMP 2019 Contents 1.0 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ................................ ................................ .................... 6 2.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 8 2.1 Overview of the Water Resources Management Plan Process ..................... 8 2.2 Our supply area ................................................................................................ 9 2.3 Links to other plans ........................................................................................10 2.4 Water Resources in the South East Group ...................................................13 2.5 Competitors in the our supply area ...............................................................13 3.0 METHODOLOGY..............................................................................................14 3.1 Pre-consultation on the Draft WRMP .............................................................14 3.2 Water Resource Zone (WRZ) Definition .........................................................15 3.3 Problem Characterisation ...............................................................................17 3.4 Planning Period ...............................................................................................17 3.5 Drought Risk Assessment ..............................................................................17 3.6 Planning Scenarios .........................................................................................18 3.7 Levels of Service .............................................................................................18 4.0 SUPPLY FORECAST .......................................................................................22 4.1 Deployable Output (DO) ..................................................................................22 4.2 Raw water and treatment works losses .........................................................33 4.3 Water treatment works losses ........................................................................33 4.4 Outage .............................................................................................................34 4.5 Water Available for Use (WAFU) ....................................................................35 4.6 Allowing for Uncertainty (Headroom) ............................................................36 5.0 DEMAND FORECAST ......................................................................................39 5.1 Defining Normal Year, Dry Year and Critical Peak Demand .........................39 5.2 Household Forecast ........................................................................................41 5.3 Non-household Demand .................................................................................51 5.4 Leakage ...........................................................................................................53 5.5 Distribution System Operational Use (DSOU) ...............................................56 5.6 Water Taken Unbilled ......................................................................................56 5.7 Impact of Levels of Service (Drought Orders) on Demand ..........................57 5.8 Allowing for Uncertainty (Headroom) ............................................................57 6.0 BASELINE SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE ......................................................60 6.1 Dry Year Annual Average ...............................................................................60 6.2 Dry Year Critical Period ..................................................................................60 6.3 Planning Scenario ...........................................................................................61 7.0 FUTURE OPTIONS ..........................................................................................62 7.1 General Considerations ..................................................................................62 7.2 Unconstrained Options and Screening .........................................................64 7.3 Feasible Option Appraisal ..............................................................................65 8.0 PROGRAMME APPRAISAL ............................................................................76 8.1 Modelling .........................................................................................................76 8.2 Initial Programme Runs ..................................................................................77 9.0 CONSULTATION ON THE PREFERRED PLAN ..............................................86 9.1 Publication of the Draft WRMP .......................................................................86 9.2 Customer Engagement ...................................................................................86 10.0 FINAL WATER RESOURCES STRATEGY ......................................................89 10.1 Overview ..........................................................................................................89 10.2 Key Priorities ...................................................................................................91 10.3 Testing the Plan ............................................................................................ 105 10.4 Preferred Final Plan ...................................................................................... 106 10.5 Next Steps ..................................................................................................... 111 Final Plan Page 4 of 112 20 August 2019 SES Water WRMP 2019 Appendices A Supply forecast B Raw and treatment works losses C Outage D Headroom E1 Population & Properties forecast E2 Household demand forecast F Non-household demand forecast G Options appraisal – supply-side H Constrained options appraisal I Stakeholder engagement J Strategic Environmental Assessment – non-technical summary K Strategic Environmental Assessment – main report L Strategic Environmental Assessment – appendices M Consultation Document Water Resource Planning Tables Final Plan Page 5 of 112 20 August 2019 SES Water WRMP 2019 1.0 Glossary of Terms Term Definition AA Annual average ADO Average Deployable Output AIC Average Incremental Cost AISC Average Incremental Social Cost ALC Active Leakage Control AMP Asset Management Period AMR Automatic Meter Reading AR Artificial Recharge ARU Aquifer Resource Unit ASR Aquifer Storage and Recovery BAG Benefits Assessment Guidance (EA, 2002) CAMS Catchment Abstraction Management Strategy CBA Cost Benefit Analysis CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalents CP Critical period CSL Customer side leakage CSP Customer Scrutiny Panel Defra Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs DI Distribution Input DMA District Meter Area DO Deployable Output DSOU Distribution System Operational Use DWI Drinking Water Inspectorate dWRMP Draft Water Resources Management Plan DY Dry Year EA Environment Agency EBSD Economics of Balancing Supply and Demand EFI Environmental Flow Indicator GES Good Ecological Status GIS Geographic Information System GLA Greater London Authority HDF Hour Day Factor (to adjust NFM to account for daily pressure profile) KNC Known Night-time Consumption (legitimate night use in a DMA) INNS Invasive Non-Native Species LoS Level(s) of Service MDO Minimum Deployable Output Ml/d Million litres a day Final Plan Page 6 of 112 20 August 2019 SES Water WRMP 2019 NPV Net Present Value NRR Natural Rate of Rise (of leakage) NY Normal Year OA Output Area Ofwat Water Services Regulation Authority ONS Office for National Statistics PCC Per capita consumption PET Potential Evapotranspiration PR14 Periodic Review 2014 PR19 Periodic Review 2019 PDO Peak Deployable Output RBMP River Basin Management Plan SDS Strategic Direction Statement SELL Sustainable Economic Level of Leakage SESW SES Water (trading name for Sutton and East Surrey Water plc) SR Sustainability Reduction SSE Scottish and Southern Energy TPC Traded Price of Carbon (for carbon emissions subject to the EU-Emissions Trading Scheme) UKWIR UK Water Industry Research WAFU Water Available For Use WDHR Worst Drought on Historic Record WEFF Water efficiency WFD Water Framework Directive WINEP Water Industry National Environment Programme WRGIS Water Resources Geographic Information System WRMP(XX) Water Resources Management Plan (14=2014, 19 = 2019, 24=2024) WRPG Water Resources Planning Guideline WRSE Water Resources in the South East group WRZ Water Resource Zone WTW Water Treatment Works %ile Percentile Final Plan Page 7 of 112 20 August 2019 SES Water WRMP 2019 2.0 Introduction 2.1 Overview of the Water
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