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In This Issue… Iraq: from a Failed Democracy to a Sunni Spring 2013 ISSUE 1 - VOL. 1- JANUARY JANUARY 1- VOL. - 1 ISSUE IN THIS ISSUE… IRAQ: FROM A FAILED DEMOCRACY TO A SUNNI SPRING. EGYPT, THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD AND THE DEEP STATE. PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI CONFLICT. GULF REGION AND THE BAHRAIN CRISIS. the mena report | volume 1 | issue 01 | january 2013 1 TUNISIA AND EGYPT – IDEOLOGICAL PROMISES AND BREAD FOR THE POOR. FRANCE’S WAR ON MALI ABOUT THE MENA REPORT The MENA Report, published monthly by The Cordoba Foundation, provides unique insights and analysis of events and developments in the Middle East and North Africa. Seeking to provide impartial, accurate and authoritative content and analysis, we do this through The Cordoba Foundation’s unique access to rare and highly important primary sources in the Middle East and beyond. 2 the mena report | volume 1 | issue 01 | january 2013 CONTENTS 05 Welcome by Dr Fareed Sabri 06 Iraq in the aftermath of the occupation, from a failed democracy to a Sunni Spring 10 Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Deep State 13 Palestinian-Israeli confl ict 14 Events in the Gulf region are dominated by the Bahraini crisis and the fallout of the Arab Spring 16 Tunisia and Egypt - From the ideological promise to the struggle to provide bread for the poor 17 France’s war on Mali the mena report | volume 1 | issue 01 | january 2013 3 SERIES EDITORS: Anas Altikriti Chief Executive Dr Farid Sabri Head, MENA Programme Abdullah Faliq Head of Research & Editor Amjad Mohamed-Saleem Hamzah D. Foreman DESIGN & ART DIRECTION: Abdullah S. Khan www.moonlight.org.uk ABOUT THE CORDOBA FOUNDATION Founded in 2005, The Cordoba Foundation (TCF) is an independent Public Relations, Research and Training unit, which promotes dialogue and the culture of peaceful and positive coexistence among civilisations, ideas and people. We do this by working with decision-making circles, researchers, religious leaders, the media, and a host of other stakeholders of society for better understanding and clearer comprehension of inter-communal and inter-religious issues in Britain and beyond. www.thecordobafoundation.com COPYRIGHT © The MENA Report is a publication of The Cordoba Foundation. All rights reserved 2013. DISCLAIMER Views and opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily refl ect those of The Cordoba Foundation. Westgate House, Level 7, Westgate Road, Ealing, London W5 1YY Tel 020 8991 3372 / Fax 020 8991 3373 [email protected] 4 the mena report | volume 1 | issue 01 | january 2013 WELCOME WELCOME Welcome to The MENA Report, published by The Cordoba assets to achieving an in-depth analysis and uncovering Foundation’s Middle East and North Africa Programme. the ulterior motives behind the multi-layered events in The report provides analysis and insights of events, this ancient and ideologically-driven region. developments and transitions currently taking place in the region. In 1918, US Senator Hiram Warren Johnson is purported to have said: “The fi rst casualty of war is truth”. However Truth, objectivity and the unbiased analysis of events from a deep acquaintance with the ideological and social in the region is a claim very diffi cult to attain as many make-up of the region and from past experience, we institutions, indigenous and foreign, claim to have can safely say that war is the logical consequence of the achieved. At The Cordoba Foundation, we aim to present ideological schism, racism and greed hidden behind a our readers with diverse viewpoints and perspectives, thin veneer of truth. hailing from political and religious players as well as protagonists. We believe integrity and professionalism The only casualty is our humanity. is our best vehicle to getting in-depth contacts and analysis. Thank you. Both the underdog and those in the position of Dr Fareed Sabri responsibility respect our commitment and our ethical HEAD OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA PROGRAMME THE CORDOBA FOUNDATION methodology. The latter and the former are our main the mena report | volume 1 | issue 01 | january 2013 5 IRAQ IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE OCCUPATION, FROM A FAILED DEMOCRACY TO A SUNNI SPRING IRAQ IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE OCCUPATION, OCCUPATION, THE OF AFTERMATH THE IN IRAQ SPRING. SUNNI A TO DEMOCRACY FAILED A FROM Nearly fi ve weeks have passed since the mainly Sunni part in the demonstrations since they are part of the fabric populated regions in Iraq erupted in mass picketing and of Iraqi society and they fully support the demands of demonstrations against what they claim to be a campaign their constituents. However we found evidence to partially of discrimination and human rights violations, carried out support the governments charge. against them by the Shi’i-led government. The government soon dismissed the demonstrations in a speech by Prime From the fi rst day of the mass rallies, a number of the Minister Nuri al-Maliki as nothing but a dirty bubble. most infl uential IIP politicians frequented the main stage of the demonstrations. Furthermore, our researcher met Members of al-Maliki’s Da’wa Party and local offi cials close young activists affi liated to the Muslim Brotherhood, they to al-Maliki accused the demonstrators of being remnants of elaborated on their eff orts in securing and organising the the Ba’ath regime and Wahhabi terrorists. They also claimed various aspects of the demonstration camp in al-Anbar in a number of comments on Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya province. satellite television channels that the main instigator and organiser of these demonstrations is the Iraqi Islamic Party, Understandably the leadership of the IIP does not want to the political arm of Iraq’s Muslim Brotherhood. be targeted by the Shi’i-led government. The party feels unprotected especially in the capital Baghdad. In countless The Cordoba Foundation contacted a senior member in the occasions the Iraqi government displayed its ability to Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) to shed light on the government’s mobilise the law, judiciary and the various militias against its accusations. Our source denied the charges categorically. opponent with an unmistaken veracity. He claimed that it is normal for members of the IIP to take 6 the mena report | volume 1 | issue 01 | january 2013 FROM A FAILED DEMOCRACY TO A SUNNI SPRING. SUNNI A TO DEMOCRACY FAILED A FROM OCCUPATION, THE OF AFTERMATH THE IN IRAQ In 2003, the Americans and their Western allies invaded Iraq. of women prisoners in Iraqi jails were sexually assaulted by The occupation was facilitated by a concoction of mainly their Shi’i captors. Furthermore the arrest of the bodyguards Shi’i Islamists backed by Iran, the Kurds and a plethora of the Sunni politician and the Minister of Finance Dr Rafe’ of small and fragmented secular forces. The Sunnis, be it al-Issawi proved that the Sunnis in Iraq had reached a dead Islamists, Arab nationalists and even those with no political end. persuasion were considered as remnants of the bygone era. The Sunnis put up a heavy fi ght against the Americans and Demands raised by the demonstrators are mainly focused their allies until their departure in 2011. on four points. First, is the immediate release of thousands of innocent prisoners of which the vast majority are Sunnis. Consequently Shi’i political parties close to Iran seized the Second, the abolition of ad hoc laws that were specifi cally opportunity to ethnically-cleanse (known locally as tat-hir) designed to target the Sunni community. Third, a call the Iraqi institutions, especially the security and armed for the government to rebalance the staffi ng of the Iraqi forces. Credible reports from inside the government claims ministries and security institutions in particular and put that the 17 Iraqi army divisions are all commanded by Shi’i an end to the institutional discrimination against them. offi cers apart from one Kurd. Arbitrary arrests and torture Finally, for the Sunni community to be allowed to exercise are rife, the Sunnis believe they have been targeted with ad their constitutional demand in creating their own federal hoc legislations such as the de-Ba’thifi cation law and the so provinces. called Article 4/Terrorism. It is unlikely that the Iraqi government will ever be able to The fi nal straw came when it was alleged that the majority achieve the wishes of the demonstrators. The unpopularity the mena report | volume 1 | issue 01 | january 2013 7 Th e demonstrations in the Sunni parts of Iraq will not achieve their goals as long as the rest of Iraq and the capital remain aloof from the demonstrators’ demands. IRAQ IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE OCCUPATION, OCCUPATION, THE OF AFTERMATH THE IN IRAQ SPRING. SUNNI A TO DEMOCRACY FAILED A FROM of the government among the Sunni community is As a strategy, the government will most likely continue translated to popular satisfaction in large parts of the Shi’i talking to the demonstrators with limited off ers until the populated regions. After all, the hundreds of thousands of sting of the demonstrations fi zzles away. On the other hand well-paid jobs by the massive Iraqi oil revenues are reserved the demonstrators are wary of the government’s strategy. by members of the Shi’i community. Decades are needed to They threatened to up the ante and resort to diff erent address this imbalance, especially in armed forces and the strategies. What that means is unclear at the moment, but security institutions, provided that there is good will in the what is clear is that both sides know the alternative to a fi rst place to address this. Iran is also a major factor, since the negotiated settlement, means another sectarian war. imbalance has served to alter the traditional enmity it faced by the Iraqi politicians and consequently the armed forces to The Sunni provinces are still suff ering from the devastating the neighboring Arab countries.
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