Passenger Rail to Bristol, VA/TN
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Final Report The Economic Impact of Restoring Intercity Passenger Rail to Bristol, VA/TN February 2019 Economic Impact of Restoring Intercity Passenger Rail to Bristol, VA/TN This page intentionally left blank. Economic Impact of Restoring Intercity Passenger Rail to Bristol, VA/TN Acknowledgements Many people contributed time, information and ideas in support of this study. The project team would like to thank Ellen Tolton and Bart Poe of the City of Bristol, Virginia and Charlie Rutkowski and Rich Sampson from the Community Transportation Association of America (CTAA) for their guidance and support during the study. We would also like to acknowledge the following organizations that provided funding: City of Bristol, Virginia; CTAA, the Virginia Tobacco Region Revitalization Commission, and the Appalachian Regional Commission. Thanks as well to the Bristol Motor Speedway for allowing a booth to be displayed to conduct surveys during NASCAR week, and to AMTRAK for permitting surveys to be collected on the trains between Washington, D.C. and Roanoke. In addition, the project team would like to thank the following people and organizations for their help in conducting this study. Name Organization Andy Alden I‐81 Corridor Coalition Angela Lee McCamy Eastman Archie Hubbard City of Bristol, Virginia Beth Rhinehart Bristol VA/TN Chamber of Commerce Brian Rose City of Bristol, Tennessee Brady Woolwine Visit Virginia’s Blue Ridge Catherine Brillhart Virginia Tourism Corporation CeeCee McCord Eastman Courtney Cacatian Bristol Convention & Visitors Bureau Cristina Finch Roanoke Valley‐Alleghany Regional Commission Diane Akers Blacksburg Partnership Don Ashley Bristol IDA Emily Stock Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation Evan Feinman Virginia Tobacco Region Revitalization Commission Jay Detrick City of Bristol, Virginia Jay McArthur Amtrak Jeremy Latimer Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation Karen Hester Cranberry Lane, Hester’s Country Store Ken Monyak Bristol Brew Kevin Wingard City of Bristol, Virginia Kim Davis Birthplace of Country Music Landon Howard Visit Virginia’s Blue Ridge Leah Ross Birthplace of Country Music i Economic Impact of Restoring Intercity Passenger Rail to Bristol, VA/TN Name Organization Maggie Bishop Believe in Bristol, Main Street Program Margaret Feierabend City of Bristol, Tennessee Michael Pollard Bristol Planning Commission Paul Conco Industrial Development Authority Patricia Lusk‐Milam Amtrak Randy Eads City of Bristol, Virginia Rex Montgomery City of Bristol, Tennessee Rob Ledger City of Roanoke Economic Development Ryan Brumfield Appalachian Regional Commission Sally Morgan City of Bristol, Virginia Sara Williams Virginia Tobacco Region Revitalization Commission Stephen Smiley Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation Tim Buchanan Bristol Historical Association Wayne Strickland Roanoke Valley‐Alleghany Regional Commission ii Economic Impact of Restoring Intercity Passenger Rail to Bristol, VA/TN TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................... i Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 1: Introduction and Purpose .................................................................................................................. 2 Chapter 2: Study Background .............................................................................................................................. 4 Bristol’s Intercity Transportation Challenge: Filling the Gap .............................................................. 6 Economic Impact of Amtrak Services to Lynchburg, Roanoke, and Norfolk ....................................... 8 Local and Regional Stakeholder Standpoint ..................................................................................... 10 Recent Experience in Other Communities ........................................................................................ 11 Bristol’s Economy .............................................................................................................................. 13 Chapter 3: Ridership Forecast Evaluation ......................................................................................................... 18 Bristol Event Ridership ...................................................................................................................... 19 Ridership Sensitivity Tests ................................................................................................................. 22 Chapter 4: Impacts on the Regional Economy .................................................................................................. 26 Impacts of Construction Cost and Effects ......................................................................................... 26 Impacts of Operation and Maintenance Cost and Effects ................................................................ 32 Impacts of Amtrak Purchasing .......................................................................................................... 36 Impacts of Reducing I–81 Traffic ....................................................................................................... 38 Impacts of Increased Tourism ........................................................................................................... 45 Travel Cost Savings ............................................................................................................................ 50 Chapter 5: Findings ............................................................................................................................................ 54 Chapter 6: References ........................................................................................................................................ 57 iii Economic Impact of Restoring Intercity Passenger Rail to Bristol, VA/TN APPENDICES Appendix A Literature List Appendix B Online Survey Questionnaire to Stakeholders in Greater Bristol Appendix C Bristol Stakeholder Survey Summary Appendix D Online Survey Questionnaire to Stakeholders in Lynchburg, Roanoke and Norfolk Appendix E Amtrak Rider Survey Appendix F Amtrak Rider Survey Results Appendix G Bristol Visitor Survey Appendix H Bristol Visitor Survey Results TABLES Table 1: Rail Service Among Virginia’s Metro and Micropolitan Economies (ranked by 2017 population) ..... 3 Table 2: Proposed Bristol Extension Schedule .................................................................................................. 18 Table 3: Amtrak Rail Ridership Forecast (annual Ons and Offs by market) ..................................................... 19 Table 4: Amtrak Virginia Station Ons and Offs, Fiscal Year 2017 ..................................................................... 20 Table 5: Bristol Ridership Geographic Segmentation ....................................................................................... 21 Table 6: Bristol Event Assumptions ................................................................................................................... 21 Table 7: Special Event Rail Ridership ................................................................................................................. 22 Table 8: Travel Time Sensitivity Test Results (annual Ons and Offs by market) .............................................. 23 Table 9: Special Event Rail Ridership Sensitivity Test ....................................................................................... 24 Table 10: Annual Rail Ridership Forecast Comparison (Ons and Offs by market) ........................................... 25 Table 11: Bristol Extension Cost Estimates by Segment – High and Low Estimates (2018 $ M)..................... 27 Table 12: Capital Cost Allocation Ranges for Complex Passenger Rail Projects .............................................. 28 Table 13: Estimated Bristol Extension Construction Costs (2018 $ M) ............................................................ 29 Table 14: Employment Impacts of Construction of Amtrak Extension to Bristol (job–years) ......................... 30 Table 15: Earnings Impacts of Construction of Amtrak Extension to Bristol (2018 $) ..................................... 31 Table 16: State and Local Tax Revenue Generated from Construction of Amtrak Extension to Bristol (2018 $) ......................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Table 17: Share of O&M Costs by Cost Family and Shares Used for Low Estimate ......................................... 33 Table 18: Estimated Annual Fare Revenue and Surplus/Shortfall Estimates (2018 $) .................................... 34 Table 19: O&M Impacts of Amtrak Extension to Bristol ................................................................................... 35 Table 20: Annual State/Local Tax Revenue Generated from O&M of Amtrak Extension to Bristol (2018 $) 36 Table 21: Amtrak Procurement Spending for Virginia and Tennessee (FY15–FY17) ....................................... 37 Table 22: I–81 Corridor Internal–External Trip Distribution by Origin ............................................................. 41 Table 23: I–81 Divertible Trips by Metropolitan Planning Organizations