2016 PILOT PRODUCTION REPORT
6255 W. Sunset Blvd. CREDITS: 12th Floor Research Analysts: Hollywood, CA 90028 Adrian McDonald Corina Sandru
Graphic Design: http://www.filmla.com/ Shane Hirschman
@FilmLA Photography: FilmLA Shutterstock FilmLAinc
TABLE OF CONTENTS
WHAT’S A PILOT? 3 GROWTH OF DIGITAL PILOTS 4 DRAMA PILOTS 5 COMEDY PILOTS 6 TOP PILOT PRODUCTION LOCATIONS 7 THE MAINSTREAMING OF “STRAIGHT-TO-SERIES” PRODUCTION 8 PILOTS’ ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE 10 THE CURRENT DRAMA LANDSCAPE IN CALIFORNIA 11 CONCLUSION 13 Each year between January and April, Los Angeles residents observe a marked increase in local on-location filming. New television pilots, produced in anticipation of May screenings for television advertisers, join continuing TV series, feature films and commercial projects in competition for talent, crews, stage space and sought-after locations.
However, Los Angeles isn’t the only place in North America hosting pilot production. Other jurisdictions, most notably New York and the Canadian city of Vancouver have established themselves as strong competitors for this lucrative part of Hollywood’s business tradition. Below these top competitors is a second-tier of somewhat smaller players in Georgia and Ontario, Canada—home to Toronto.
FilmL.A.’s official count shows that 201 broadcast, cable and digital pilots (123 Dramas, 78 Comedies) were produced during the 2015-16 development cycle, one less than the prior year and the third straight year in which more than 200 pilots were produced.
Out of those 201 pilots, 79 projects (25 Dramas, 54 Comedies) were filmed in the Los Angeles region. This represents a 13 percent drop from last year, when 91 pilot projects filmed here and it is also the lowest number of pilots in the last six years that were produced in the region.
In terms of overall market share, L.A. captured just 39 percent of all pilots in the current cycle, which is the lowest share on record and the first time the region’s share fell below 40 percent. Needless to say, it is a very far cry from L.A.’s record 82 percent share in ‘06/’07.
TOTAL PILOTS PRODUCED BY CYCLE
250
200 203 202 201 186 169 150 152
129 124 120 100 100 103 91
50
0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
100
80
60
40 2 4
20
0 WHAT’S A PILOT?
For more than a decade, FilmL.A. has conducted ongoing primary and secondary research to keep track of new television pilots. Our counts include all pilot projects of which FilmL.A. is made aware through primary and secondary research, and for which a primary production location was verified.
FilmL.A. uses the word “pilot” throughout this study to refer to all original scripted pilots, shorter-length presentations or “hidden pilots” captured during the development cycle. Pilot counts within a development cycle include both stage-based and location-based projects made in any location, of any running duration, intended for primetime debut on either broadcast or cable networks serving U.S. audiences. Original web series are included for this analysis, but animated pilot productions are not counted.
Networks may choose to skip pilot and presentation production and immediately “green light” promising new shows for series production. Rather than discount new production occurring anywhere within the development cycle, FilmL.A. includes the first episode of these “straight-to-series” productions as “hidden pilots” in all of its 250 counts.
Another wrinkle in classifying pilots has been the significant increase in the number of limited-run or so-called “event” series that are not intended to last more than a single season. If a single season of episodes is aired 200 for a series that, in fact, doesn’t return for subsequent seasons, it would be akin to a true mini-series like Roots, Lonesome Dove or Stephen King’s IT. A true mini-series is a wholly separate category of production that should fall outside the scope of a pilot study. The problem with these limited or event series is that they can and do return for multiple seasons with an indefinite rather than limited run. For example, ABC’s© Agent Carter was conceived as a “limited” series that would end after eight episodes. However, given the success of 150 the show, it returned for a second (and final) season of 13 episodes. FilmL.A. includedAgent Carter in a prior pilot report and will continue to hedge on the bet that new shows labeled “event” or “limited run” series are more likely to become an ongoing series than resembling an actual miniseries.
100 Viewer demand for original content lured both cable and digital networks into the content creation business. The number of annual pilot projects in production doubled within a decade, driving state and local policy change to capture this increase in business.
And as for the genre we originally set out to track – “television pilots” – what are we to do with that term? 50 As consumers enjoy content across a range of devices and screens, the industry has begun to question its assumptions about how episodic content is best vetted, sold and screened. We might not always call the things we track “pilots,” or for that matter, call this part of the business “television”. But we at FilmL.A. research remain committed to this work, and studying episodic content in all its forms. 0 L.A.’S SHARE OF TOTAL PILOTS PRODUCED
100%100
80%80 82%
71% 60%60 61% 59% 57% 51% 52% 40%40 44% 45% 39%
20%20
0%0 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
3 GROWTH OF DIGITAL PILOTS
In just the last several years, non-traditional programming available from online services like Amazon©, Netflix© and Hulu© has begun altering not just the landscape for pilots, but the very concept of broadcast television in terms of how they acquire content, the manner in which they deliver it and how viewers consume it.
In just five years, the share of pilot activity that digital networks account for went from less than one percent to 19 percent—almost a fifth of all pilot production– in the recent cycle.
During the 2011-12 cycle, just one pilot tracked by FilmL.A. was produced for a digital network. By comparison, there were 38 pilots produced for digital networks in 2015-16.
In the last two years, major developments have been impacting the digital network universe with premium cable network channels HBO® and Showtime® now offering stand-alone subscription options for people who consume content online and a growing number of consumers electing to “cut the cord” on cable providers like Comcast© and Time Warner©. With a network like HBO operating a standalone digital service with original programming options and rates comparable to Netflix or Amazon, it now operates as a digital network player and a traditional cable television network. As more and more broadcast and cable networks follow what HBO, Showtime, CBS© and others are doing, the distinction between network, cable and digital will not matter.
Despite this, unlike previous FilmL.A. reports, this year’s Pilot Production Report includes a more precise breakout of how many pilots are being produced for each type of programming outlet, including the number of pilots produced for premium cable channels like HBO and Showtime.
DIGITAL NETWORK SHARE OF PILOT ACTIVITY 2015-162015/16 PILOT Pilot COUNT Count & SHARE & (BY Share TYPE) by Type
20 Gains in Geogia, Vancouver & Toronto 19%
2015 25 25 19% 13% 27% 1510 54 PILOTS 13% 46% 105 93 PILOTS 5% 20 4% 8% 16 PILOTS .6% 50 2011-1217 2012-13 2013-145% 2014-15 2015-16 4% 19% L.A.’s Share of Total Comedy Pilots Produced 250 38 PILOTS .6% 0 DIGITAL VS. NETWORK 16& CABLE PILOTS 15 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 152015-16 100 15 200 250 192 100% 176 163 97% 178 Network Digital Premium Cable Cable 92% 91% 150 80 200 151 12 12 82% 82% 83% 192 176 163 76% 77% 178 100 69% 150 60 10 151 10 9 9 50 100 8 40 1 26 38 0 8 11 6 650 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Network / Cable 20 5 5 1 26 38 Digital 2011-12 2012-1 0 201 -1 8 201 -1511 2015-16 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 0 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Top Pilot Locations 4 200 L.A.’s Share of Total Drama Pilots Produced
3 2 80 8 8 12 150 5 12 6 9 15 70 2 9 9 1 6 7 5 35 19 25 28 60 63% 7 20 100 17 15 10 17 16 50 8 25 50% 40 38% 38% 30 50 87 92 96 90 91 29% 82 25% 20 22% 19% 20% 10 17% 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 0 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-2016
Louisiana
Toronto Top Locations for Drama Pilots Los Angeles’ Share of Pilot Spending Atlanta 100 50
New York 46% 80 10 0 5 39% Vancouver 11 12 0 60 8 31% 5 30% Los Angeles 8 19 29% 7 6 5 4 2 24 20 0 12 17 6 15 16 21 4 2 8 15 17 12 7 8 10 20 23 25 20 22 21 19 21 0 0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16
Toronto
Atlanta
New York
Vancouver 2015/16 Pilot Count & Share by Type
Gains in Geogia, Vancouver & Toronto
25 25 2015/16 Pilot Count & Share by Type
Gains in Geogia, Vancouver & Toronto 20 25 25
17 L.A.’s Share of Total Comedy Pilots Produced 16 20 15 15 100 15 100% 97% 17 L.A.’s Share of Total Comedy Pilots Produced 92% 91% 80 16 12 12 82% 82% 83% 15 15 100 77% 15 100% 76% 97% 69% 92% 91% 60 80 12 10 12 9 9 82% 82% 83% 10 76% 77% 8 60 69%40 10 10 9 9 8 6 6 DRAMA 40PILOTS 20 5 6 6 5 In 2015-16, the Los Angeles region captured just 20 percent of all drama pilots, a slight improvement over20 the 19 percent share in the prior cycle. Despite this slight improvement, 5 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 5 L.A.’s share was still down 68 percent from the peak in ’06/’07, when L.A.’s drama share 0 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 was a commanding 63 percent. Much like feature films, pilot projects are often produced 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 in jurisdictions where0 tax incentives are available. The Greater Los Angeles Region’s Top Pilot Locations considerable loss of pilot2006-7 production2007-8 share2008-9 is directly2009-10 tied to incentive-fueled2010-11 2011-12 competition.2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Top Pilot Locations 200 200 L.A. SHAREL.A.’s OF TOTALShare DRAMA of TotalPILOTS PRODUCEDDrama Pilots Produced L.A.’s Share of Total Drama Pilots Produced 80% 3 2 3 80 2 80 8 8 12 8 150 8 12 5 12 1509 70% 6 15 5 12 709 2 9 9 6 15 70 1 6 9 5 2 9 60% 7 19 35 28 6 7 25 1 60 63% 20 7 5 35 19 50% 28 100 17 15 7 25 60 63% 10 17 16 20 50 8 25 50% 100 17 15 40% 10 17 16 50 8 40 25 30% 38% 38% 50% 50 96 30 40 87 92 90 91 20% 29% 82 25% 38% 38% 20 22% 10% 3019% 20% 50 87 92 96 90 1091 17% 29% 0 0% 82 25% 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 0 20 22% 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-2016 19% 20% 10 17% Louisiana 0 In 2015-16, just five international locations (L.A., New York, Vancouver, Toronto, Georgia) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 accounted2015-16 for 70 percent of all dramas produced during the cycle. The most notable0 among these five locations was Vancouver, British Columbia, which saw the number of 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-2016 Toronto Top Locations for Drama Pilots drama pilots surge to 21, an increaseLos Angeles’ of 75Share percent of Pilot compared Spending to the 12 drama pilots produced there in the prior cycle. In 2015-16, Vancouver surpassed New York in the total Atlanta 100 Louisiana number of drama pilots 50for the third time in the last seven years.
New York TOP LOCATIONS FOR DRAMA46% PILOTS 80 Toronto 10 Top Locations 0 for Drama Pilots Los Angeles’ Share of Pilot Spending 5 39% Vancouver 11 12 100 50 Atlanta 0 60 8 31% 5 30% Los Angeles 8 19 29% 7 6 5 46% 4 2 24 New York 20 0 12 17 80 10 0 15 16 6 21 5 4 39% 2 8Vancouver15 17 12 11 7 8 10 12 20 0 60 8 31% 23 22 25 5 30% 20 Los Angeles21 19 21 8 19 29% 70 5 2011-126 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 0 4 2 24 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 20 0 12 17 6 15 16 21 Toronto 4 2 15 8 8 17 12 7 Toronto 10 20 Atlanta Atlanta 23 25 New York 20 22 21 19 21 New York Vancouver 0 0 Los Angeles 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Vancouver 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16
5 Toronto
Atlanta
New York
Vancouver 2015/16 Pilot Count & Share by Type
Gains in Geogia, Vancouver & Toronto
25 25 COMEDY PILOTS
L.A.’s share of comedy pilots produced in 2015-16 was 69 percent compared to 77 percent in the previous cycle. This marks the first time since tracking began that L.A.’s share of comedy pilots fell below 70 percent. Needless to say, this is a far cry from 2006-07, when L.A.’s share of comedy pilots was an unchallenged 100 percent. The raw number of comedy pilots produced in L.A. was 54 in 20 2015-16 compared to 70 in the previous cycle, which represents a 23 percent decline.
17 L.A.’s Share of Total Comedy Pilots Produced L.A. SHARE OF TOTAL COMEDY PILOTS PRODUCED 16 15 15 100%100 15 100% 97% 92% 91% 80%80 12 12 82% 82% 83% 76% 77% 60%60 69% 10 10 9 9 8 40%40
6 6 20%20 5 5 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 0%0 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Top Pilot Locations
200 L.A.’s status as the premier pilot production center continues to hinge on industry willingness to produce comedy projects in Los Angeles. Until recently, generous film incentives in other L.A.’s locationsShare have of not Totalbeen as successful Drama at siphoning Pilots comedy Produced production from L.A.
3 2 80 8 8 12 Multi-camera, stage-bound comedies, which L.A. has been able to retain in great numbers, 150 5 12 9 cost up to $1.5 million to produce per episode. In 2015-16, there were at least 31 multi-camera 6 15 70 2 9 9 pilots produced (20 in L.A.). By comparison, in 2014-15, there were 35 multi-camera pilots 1 6 7 5 35 produced (31 in L.A.). Creative reasons, as opposed to economic reasons, presently keep these 19 25 28 60 63% 7 20 productions in Los Angeles. 100 17 15 10 17 16 50 8 25 50%Single-camera comedies that regularly shoot on-location cost more to make at $2-$4 million 40 per episode. In 2015-16, there were at least 48 single-camera pilots produced (37 in L.A.). By comparison,38% in 2014-15, there were38% 56 single-camera pilots produced (39 in L.A.). 30 50 87 92 96 90 91 29% 82 25% 20 22% 19% 20% 10 17% 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 0 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-2016
Louisiana
Toronto Top Locations for Drama Pilots Los Angeles’ Share of Pilot Spending Atlanta 100 50
New York 46% 80 10 0 5 39% Vancouver 11 12 0 60 8 31% 5 30% Los Angeles 8 19 29% 7 6 5 4 2 24 20 0 12 17 6 15 16 21 4 2 8 15 17 12 7 8 10 20 6 23 25 20 22 21 19 21 0 0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16
Toronto
Atlanta
New York
Vancouver 2015/16 Pilot Count & Share by Type
Gains in Geogia, Vancouver & Toronto
25 25
20
17 L.A.’s Share of Total Comedy Pilots Produced 16 15 15 100 15 100% 97% 92% 91% 80 12 12 82% 82% 83% 76% 77% 60 69% 10 TOP PILOT PRODUCTION LOCATIONS 10 9 9 During the 2015-16 development cycle,8 79 television pilots were filmed on Los Angeles streets and stages. However, 122 other pilots — compared to 111 last year — were produced outside the region 40 in competing jurisdictions. Fortunately, three of these pilots shot elsewhere in California, giving the state a6 total of 82 pilots6 in 2015-16. The availability of financial production incentives and production infrastructure are key factors influencing where pilot producers choose to film. As in prior years, 20 some5 form of film production incentive was available in every one of the non-California locations 5 used during the 2015-16 development cycle. 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 0 After L.A., the top competitors for pilot production in 2015-16 were New York (28 pilots), Vancouver 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 (25 pilots), Atlanta (15 pilots)Top Pilot and Locations Toronto (12 pilots).
200 L.A.’s Share of Total Drama Pilots Produced
3 2 80 8 8 12 150 5 12 6 9 15 70 2 9 9 1 6 7 5 35 19 25 28 60 63% 7 20 100 17 15 10 17 16 50 8 25 50% Louisiana 40 Toronto 38% 38% 30 50 87 92 96 90 91 Atlanta 29% 82 New York 25% 20 22% Vancouver 17% 19% 20% Los Angeles / CA 10 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 0 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-2016 Pilot production was up sharply in Georgia, with a 67 percent increase in pilots over the prior cycle. Likewise, in the Canadian cities of Vancouver and Toronto, pilot production surged 67 percent and 33 percent respectively.Louisiana In addition to the generous subsidies, growth in Canada was also driven by the exchange rate, which offers American producers an additional 20-25% savings based on the value of the Canadian dollar, which plummeted over the past year. Toronto Top Locations for Drama Pilots Los Angeles’ Share of Pilot Spending Also of note was activity in the City of Chicago, formerly a traditional television hub, which hosted five pilots in 2015-16. Other than Chicago, no other location 100hosted more than five pilots in the 50 2015-16 cycle.Atlanta This includes Louisiana, which plummeted from a record eight pilots produced during the prior cycle to just two in 2015-16. The decline in Louisiana likely stems from the uncertainty surroundingNew the state’s York embattled film incentive program, which has been significantly scaled back in 46% terms of available annual funding in the past year. 80 10 0 2015/16 Pilot Count & Share by Type 5 39% Vancouver 11 GAINS IN ATLANTA, VANCOUVER, & TORONTO 12 Gains in Geogia, Vancouver & Toronto 0 60 8 31% 5 30% Los Angeles 8 19 29% 25 25 7 6 5 4 2 24 20 0 12 17 6 15 16 21 20 4 2 15 8 8 17 12 17 7 L.A.’s Share of Total Comedy Pilots Produced 10 20 16 15 15 100 15 23 22 100% 25 20 21 97% 21 19 92% 91% 80 0 12 12 82% 82% 83% 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 0 76% 77% 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 60 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 69% 10 9 9 10 Toronto 8 40 Atlanta 6 6 Toronto Vancouver 20 5 5 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 0 Atlanta 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Top Pilot Locations
200 L.A.’s Share of Total Drama7 Pilots Produced New York 3 2 80 8 8 12 150 5 12 6 9 15 70 2 9 9 1 6 7 5 35 19 25 28 60 63% 7 20 Vancouver 100 17 15 10 17 16 50 8 25 50% 40 38% 38% 30 50 87 92 96 90 91 29% 82 25% 20 22% 19% 20% 10 17% 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 0 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-2016
Louisiana
Toronto Top Locations for Drama Pilots Los Angeles’ Share of Pilot Spending Atlanta 100 50
New York 46% 80 10 0 5 39% Vancouver 11 12 0 60 8 31% 5 30% Los Angeles 8 19 29% 7 6 5 4 2 24 20 0 12 17 6 15 16 21 4 2 8 15 17 12 7 8 10 20 23 25 20 22 21 19 21 0 0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16
Toronto
Atlanta
New York
Vancouver C l orn r s etwor s. C le r Str ht to Ser es rders C l orn B sed r s 80 THE MAINSTREAMING OF 50 Digital Dramas 80 “STRAIGHT-TO-SERIES” PRODUCTION 70 As the initial episode of a proposed series, many pilots are made, but only a few will ever be64 70 shown to viewers. Before many pilots can be green-lighted for series, it must first be deemed 40 Cable Dramas marketable to television advertisers and foreign distributors. 60 57 16 60 32 For decades,55 broadcast networks have courted advertisers in an expensive and seasonally-driven “upfronts” process. Every year in late May, advertisers preview the shows that53 will go on to be Network Dramas 57 52 10 50 aired on broadcast networks in the fall or early the following year as mid-season replacements. 30 50 11 22 48 2 2 Cable and digital networks also screen47 a variety of scripted content. Unlike network pilots, 7 12 11 45 45 45 12 40 cable pilots are produced year-round and have increased in number to contribute mightily to 40 43 41 38 development cycle yields. New cable and digital series debut throughout the year. 35 37 Unlike broadcast and cable networks, the top two digital network players (Amazon and Netflix) are 20 30 33 32 30 31 18 20 31 30 not beholden to advertisers or the “upfronts” process. 28 27 27 29 25 26 25 26 26 Amazon24 selects which pilots receive full series orders based in large part on the number of times 18 20 20 22 19 a show is streamed and the percentage20 of viewers19 who finish the pilot. Unlike network television, there are no commercial interruptions on Amazon and advertiser influence is effectively taken out 10 2 15 10 of the equation. 10 1 7 Unlike Amazon, the original programming on Netflix has all been straight-to-series orders. Rather7 6 10 9 than release episodes on a weekly basis like traditional network or cable1 broadcasts,1 Netflix 5 5 0 1 2 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 2016-1 0 makes all episodes available at one time, which also takes advertisers out of the equation. 0 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 If adapting to a new era of broadcasting (where the lines between television and online digital networks are increasingly blurred) means adopting the practice of ordering more shows straight- Incentivised to-series, a review of FilmL.A.’s historical data suggests the prior two cycles marked a departure from the old system. In 2015-16, not only did the departure continue, it took off again. A total of 57 network, cable and digital shows were ordered straight-to-series in the 2015-16 cycle. By comparison, a total of 37 shows were ordered straight-to-series in the prior cycle. Non-Incentivised In the last three cycles, there were a combined total of 130 shows ordered straight-to-series. That’s five times the number of shows ordered straight-to-series than the prior three years (2010- 2013) combined.
Co edy Str ht to Ser es rders STRAIGHT-TO-SERIESStr ht to Ser es ORDER rder (DRAMA r & COMEDY) Co edy 60 12 Digital Comedy Digital
10 50 Cable Comedy Cable 6 22 8 Network Comedy 40 Network 2 6 12 5 30
4 5 23 4 24 20
2 3 19 1 2 2 10 1 1 1 1 Digital 0 8 13 11 7 Cable 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 6 6 Network 0 1 2 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
8 etwor C le Str ht to Ser es rders Co edy r t l lots 40 30 1/2 hour 35 25 30 1 hour 25 20 20 15 15 10 10
5 5 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 0 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 C l orn r s etwor s. C le r Str ht to Ser es rders C l orn Looking at the trends B sed for both r s categories individually reveals other patterns. When it comes to drama, cable and digital networks have been more aggressive than the traditional networks in each of the last six cycles. In the last three cycles, the number of dramas ordered straight-to-series for cable and digital outpaced80 50 network orders by a margin of more than 3-1. The 16 digital drama orders in 2015- Digital Dramas 80 16 is almost double the drama pilots ordered by digital networks in the prior two cycles combined. 70 64 C l orn r s etwor s. C le 70 r Str ht to Ser es rders 40 Cable Dramas C l orn B sed r s DRAMA STRAIGHT-TO-SERIES ORDERS 60 57 16 60 50 32 55 80 53 Network Dramas 57 Digital Dramas 52 80 10 50 30 50 11 22 48 2 70 2 47 7 64 12 11 45 45 70 40 45 12 40 Cable Dramas 40 43 60 57 41 16 38 60 32 55 37 20 53 35 18 20 52 30 33 32 30 Network Dramas30 31 57 10 50 31 28 30 2 27 27 29 50 11 22 48 25 26 25 26 26 2 47 7 24 18 12 11 45 45 20 22 20 20 45 12 40 19 19 2 40 43 38 10 41 15 37 10 20 35 1 7 30 33 32 30 31 18 20 10 31 30 28 10 27 27 29 7 6 9 25 26 25 26 26 1 1 5 5 24 0 18 1 2 20 22 0 20 20 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 2016-1 0 19 19 10 2 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 15 10 Digital 10 1 7 7 Incentivised6 10 9 Cable 1 1 5 5 0 1 2 Network 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 2016-1 0 0 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Non-Incentivised Incentivised When it comes to comedy, broadcast network and cable networks placed a higher priority on ordering shows straight-to-series during the past cycle. In the last three cycles, digital network orders for comedies straight-to-series Non-Incentivised have held steady, with six ordered in 2015-16. COMEDYCo edy STRAIGHT-TO-SERIES Str ht to Ser es ORDERS rders Str ht to Ser es rder r Co edy 60 12 Digital Co edy Str ht to Ser es rders Str ht to Ser es rder r Co edy Digital Comedy 60 12 10 50 Digital Cable Comedy Cable Digital Comedy 6 22 10 50 8 Cable Comedy Cable Network Comedy 40 Network 6 22 2 8 Network Comedy 40 Network 6 12 2 5 30 6 30 12 4 5 23 5 4 24 20 4 5 23 4 24 20 2 3 19 1 Digital 2 2 2 3 19 Cable 10 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 10 0 Network 8 13 11 1 1 1 1 7 0 8 13 11 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 6 6 7 1 2 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 6 6 0 0 1 2 9 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
etwor C le Str ht to Ser es rders Co edy r etwor C le Str ht to Ser es rders Co edy r t l lots t l40 lots 40 30 30 1/2 hour 1/2 hour 35 35 25 25 30 30 1 hour 1 hour 25 20 25 20 20 15 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 5 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 0 2011 12 2012 13 2013 140 2014 15 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 0 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 PILOTS’ ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE
Pilot production is worthy of study because the activity creates significant economic benefits for the hosting region. The average one-hour drama pilot can directly employ 150-750+ people for the duration of the project.
Typical pilot production costs, having risen over the years, now average about $2 million (for comedy pilots) and $6 million to $9 million (for drama pilots). Presentations, which are sometimes made in lieu of pilots, cost up to 40 percent less to produce than full-length pilots.
A sampling of pilot budgets from other states in recent years show costs for drama pilots range from $6.2 million to almost $11 million. For half-hour comedies, costs ranged from $2 million to $5.5 million.
SHOW STUDIO LOCATION BUDGET HIRES INCENTIVE AMOUNT LENGTH Divorce HBO New York $5,612,840 405 $1,308,544 1 hour TinMan NBC New York $9,177,595 744 $2,221,186 1 hour Gotham WB New York $10,993,893 1,097 $2,934,036 1 hour LaGravenes Disney New York $6,712,652 886 $1,650,785 1 hour Leftovers WB New York $8,433,643 1,393 $2,004,971 1 hour Affair Showtime New York $7,184,763 481 $1,797,616 1 hour Money HBO New York $9,415,625 1,279 $2,285,095 1 hour Babylon Fields Fox New York $9,255,867 1,251 $2,381,275 1 hour Blanco Fox New York $6,916,992 950 $1,809,357 1 hour How to Get Away With Murder ABC Pennsylvania $6,363,903 N/A $1,590,976 1 hour Outlaw NBC Pennsylvania $6,484,287 175 $1,621,072 1 hour Field of Play NBC North Carolina $6,170,273 365 $1,542,568 1 hour Sleepy Hollow Fox North Carolina $7,441,493 323 $1,860,373 1 hour Occult ABC North Carolina $8,221,049 886 $2,055,262 1 hour The Magicians SyFy Louisiana $6,979,249 721 $2,100,000 1 hour Bloodline Sony Florida $9,364,616 N/A $760,489 1 hour Sea of Fire Sony Vancouver, B.C. $6,285,726 N/A $808,843 1 hour Gaffigan SONY New York $4,438,483 747 $1,080,686 1/2 hour Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll FOX New York $2,556,437 619 $638,610 1/2 hour Irreversible SONY New York $3,359,321 680 $736,893 1/2 hour Younger Viacom New York $2,111,227 363 $449,447 1/2 hour Manhattan Love Story ABC New York $3,556,826 561 $860,419 1/2 hour Happyish Showtime New York $5,512,454 799 $1,297,059 1/2 hour People in New Jersey HBO New York $4,302,722 565 $1,001,914 1/2 hour Bad Advice From My Brother Viacom New York $956,411 231 $207,463 1/2 hour Downward Dog ABC Pennsylvania $4,400,000 311 $1,096,072 1/2 hour
Based on these figures, FilmL.A. estimates that approximately $296 million was spent on television pilot production in Los Angeles during the 2015-16 development cycle. While this is a slight decline from the $298 million spent during the prior cycle, the decline of pilot spending in L.A. (less than 1%) is better than expected compared to the 13 percent drop in total pilots produced in the city. The saving grace for L.A. during the 2015-16 pilot cycle were the 25 drama pilots produced here, which is the highest number of drama pilots to shoot in L.A. in the past seven years.
10 2015/16 Pilot Count & Share by Type
Gains in Geogia, Vancouver & Toronto
25 25
20
17 L.A.’s Share of Total Comedy Pilots Produced 16 15 15 100 15 100% 97% 92% 91% 80 12 12 82% 82% 83% 76% 77% 60 69% 10 10 9 9 8 40
6 6 20 5 5 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 0 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Top Pilot Locations
200 L.A.’s Share of Total Drama Pilots Produced
3 2 80 8 8 12 150 5 12 6 9 15 70 2 9 9 1 6 7 5 35 19 25 28 60 63% 7 20 100 17 15 10 17 16 50 8 25 50% 40 38% 38% 30 50 87 92 96 90 91 29% 82 25% 20 22% 19% 20% 10 17% 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 0 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-2016
Louisiana LOS ANGELES SHARE OF PILOT PRODUCTION SPENDING Toronto Top Locations for Drama Pilots Los Angeles’ Share of Pilot Spending Atlanta 100 50
New York 46% 80 10 0 5 39% Vancouver 11 12 0 60 8 31% Unfortunately, the $296 million spent in L.A. by 5 30% Los Angeles 8 19 29% pilots in 2015-16 represents just 29 percent of 7 6 5 4 2 24 the total amount spent by pilot producers in all 20 locations. This marks the first time L.A.’s share 0 12 17 of total pilot production spending has fallen 6 15 16 21 4 below 30 percent. 2 8 15 17 12 7 8 10 20 23 25 20 22 21 19 21 0 0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16
Toronto THE CURRENT DRAMA LANDSCAPE IN CALIFORNIA
Atlanta Shifting to what each pilot ultimately aspires to be—a new series—a brief overview of the current drama series production landscape is informative. The good news for California is that the number of one-hour scripted drama series shooting in the state stands at 64, the best showing in ten years. New York Most of the California dramas are shows on cable; seven of the 29 cable series are shows produced for premium cable channels (HBO & Showtime). Digital dramas now account for 11 percent of all California-based drama series (Amazon 4, Netflix 2, Hulu 1). Vancouver CALIFORNIA DRAMAS:C l orn NETWORK, r s CABLE etwor & DIGITAL s. C le r Str ht to Ser es rders C l orn B sed r s 80 50 Digital Dramas 80 70 64 70 40 Cable Dramas 60 57 16 60 32 55 53 Network Dramas 57 52 10 50 30 50 11 22 48 2 2 47 7 12 11 45 45 45 12 40 40 43 41 38 35 37 20 30 33 32 30 31 18 20 31 30 28 27 27 29 25 26 25 26 26 24 18 20 22 20 20 19 19 10 2 15 10 10 1 7 7 6 10 9 1 1 5 5 0 1 2 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 2016-1 0 0 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Incentivised California can credit the reversal of fortune in large part to the California Film & TOTAL Television Tax Credit Program, including the expansion of the program that took Digital effect in mid-2015. Under the new version of the program, dubbed 2.0, eligibility has Non-Incentivised been expanded to drama series regardless of where it is broadcast and now includes Cable network, premium cable and digital channels. Under the old program, only basic Network cable series and network shows that were relocating to California were eligible for the incentive. Under the new program, California will be hosting 32 incentivized dramas, including nine network series, 15 basic cable series, three digital series and three Co edy Str ht to Ser es rders premium cable series. Str ht to Ser es rder r Co edy 60 12 11 Digital Comedy Digital
10 50 Cable Comedy Cable 6 22 8 Network Comedy 40 Network 2 6 12 5 30
4 5 23 4 24 20
2 3 19 1 2 2 10 1 1 1 1 0 7 8 13 11 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 6 6 0 1 2 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
etwor C le Str ht to Ser es rders Co edy r t l lots 40 30 1/2 hour 35 25 30 1 hour 25 20 20 15 15 10 10
5 5 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 0 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 C l orn r s etwor s. C le r Str ht to Ser es rders C l orn B sed r s
CALIFORNIA BASED DRAMAS 80 50 Digital Dramas 80 70 64 70 40 Cable Dramas 60 57 16 60 32 55 53 Network Dramas 57 52 10 50 30 50 11 22 48 2 2 47 7 12 11 45 45 45 12 40 40 43 41 38 35 37 20 30 33 32 30 31 18 20 31 30 28 27 27 29 25 26 25 26 26 24 18 20 22 20 20 19 19 10 2 15 10 10 1 7 Incentivized 7 6 10 9 Non-incentivized 1 1 5 5 0 1 2 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 2015-16 2016-1 0 0 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 The impact of these incentivized dramas (and Veep, a comedy on premium cable) is massive. According to spending and employment data provided by the California Film Commission, these series will have a direct production spend of $1.59 billion while shooting their current/upcoming season. Assuming an average season Incentivisedbudget of $50 million for the remaining 32 dramas shooting in the state that are not incentivized, the total annual direct production spend for all 64 dramas in California is a whopping $3.2 billion. This amount does not include the economic impact of almost 70 scripted half-hour comedies, like Transparent, Modern Family or The Big Bang Theory, that also call California home. Non-Incentivised PROJECT TITLE TOTAL CA SPEND CAST CREW EXTRAS PROJECT TYPE 13 Reasons Why 1 $49,400,000 80 175 7,150 Digital American Crime 3 $35,623,000 75 175 960 Network American Horror Story 6 $63,756,000 294 125 3,680 Basic Cable Animal Kingdom 1 $33,000,000 171 150 1,980 Basic Cable Animal Kingdom Pilot $6,058,000 24 150 560 Basic Cable Citizen Co edy1 Str ht$45,360,000 to97 Ser es150 rders4,536 Digital Str ht to Ser es rder r Co edy Citizen Pilot $9,656,000 30 150 1,898 Digital Code Black 2 $53,300,000 248 195 10,894 Network 60 12 Crazy Ex Girlfriend 2 $39,073,000 8 260 20 Network Digital Famous in Love 1 $24,469,000 90 150 2,718 Basic Cable Digital Comedy Famous In Love Pilot $3,769,000 28 135 357 Basic Cable 10Good Girls Revolt 1 $38,573,000 306 217 3,555 Digital 50 Heartbeat 1 $44,752,000 15 250 4,200 Network Cable Comedy Cable TOTAL $1,592,159,000 5,444 6,467 135,884 6 22 8 12 Network Comedy 40 Network 2 6 12 5 30
4 5 23 4 24 20
2 3 19 1 2 2 10 1 1 1 1 0 7 8 13 11 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 6 6 0 1 2 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
etwor C le Str ht to Ser es rders Co edy r t l lots 40 30 1/2 hour 35 25 30 1 hour 25 20 20 15 15 10 10
5 5 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-1 201 -1 201 -15 0 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 PROJECT TITLE TOTAL CA SPEND CAST CREW EXTRAS PROJECT TYPE I'm Dying Up Here 1 $47,368,000 172 120 3,582 Premium Cable Mistresses 4 $23,333,000 112 125 2,531 Network Pitch 1 $36,390,000 219 125 4,752 Network Pitch Pilot $8,296,000 59 123 1,394 Network Pure Genius 1 $48,941,000 33 190 4,272 Network Pure Genius Pilot $6,816,000 33 190 604 Network Rebel 1 $5,429,000 35 150 1,500 Basic Cable Rebel Pilot $4,371,000 27 100 500 Basic Cable Rosewood 2 $75,705,000 337 125 5,852 Network Scream Queens 2 $61,891,000 246 125 6,783 Network Secrets and Lies 2 $35,981,000 128 185 1,840 Network Shooter 1 $32,872,000 62 175 2,223 Basic Cable Snowfall 1 $38,140,000 263 122 2,290 Basic Cable Snowfall Pilot $9,577,000 88 122 811 Basic Cable Sweet/Vicious 1 $19,501,000 10 90 370 Basic Cable This is Us 1 $42,977,000 248 125 2,784 Network This Is Us Pilot $7,010,000 33 125 611 Network Twin Peaks $41,162,000 153 140 1,122 Premium Cable Veep 6 $56,369,000 466 195 4,260 Premium Cable Westworld 1 $107,241,000 282 200 2,135 Premium Cable Hit the Floor $36,000,000 28 115 6,100 Basic Cable Major Crimes $68,000,000 21 171 2,860 Basic Cable Murder in the First $44,000,000 72 240 3,930 Basic Cable Pretty Little Liars $54,000,000 215 150 5,340 Basic Cable Rizzoli & Isles $67,000,000 270 150 4,194 Basic Cable Switched at Birth $56,000,000 156 192 8,325 Basic Cable Teen Wolf $60,000,000 20 130 5,160 Basic Cable Stitchers $51,000,000 190 185 7,251 Basic Cable TOTAL $1,592,159,000 5,444 6,467 135,884
CONCLUSION
As our decade of independent research reveals, the pilot production landscape in Greater Los Angeles has greatly changed over an unexpectedly short time. The ever- present availability of film incentives, first outside and then later in California, has made fierce jurisdictions ongoing competition for new television projects and jobs.
Also thanks to these incentives, television production budgets were observed to increase and help fuel a rise in on-screen production value, particularly for new drama pilots and drama series. While the decrease in both pilot count and pilot share are disconcerting, it must be considered in context. On location production activity in the Los Angeles region has had five consecutive quarters of growth. Over the past ten quarters, all but three have seen healthy gains, especially in key categories like scripted TV Drama and TV Comedy.
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