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Roadmap to QRET ANEM NEM Nodal Modelling Report Final

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Roadmap to QRET ANEM NEM Nodal Modelling Report Final Centre for Policy Futures 31 July 2020 National electricity market nodal modelling final report 2020 Dr Phillip Wild, Centre for Policy Futures University of Queensland Contents Executive Overview .............................................................................................................................. 5 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 8 2 Scope and Objectives of the Electricity Market Modelling Project ............................................... 9 2.1 Research Question ......................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Rationale for Research Question .................................................................................................. 9 2.2.1 Complexity of implementation of Queensland’s Renewable Energy Target. ................................. 9 2.2.2 Existing modelling shortcomings .................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Research proposal ........................................................................................................................ 10 3 Wholesale market modelling approach ......................................................................................... 11 3.1 ANEM model .................................................................................................................................. 11 3.2 Principal features of the ANEM model ........................................................................................ 11 3.2.1 Transmission grid characteristics in the ANEM model ................................................................ 12 3.2.2 Demand-side agents in the ANEM model: LSE’s ........................................................................ 12 3.2.3 Supply-side agents in the ANEM model: generators ................................................................... 19 3.3 DC OPF solution algorithm used ................................................................................................. 19 3.4 Modelling transmission losses .................................................................................................... 21 3.5 Methodology and data sources underpinning state and nodal demand traces to be used in the modelling ....................................................................................................................................... 23 3.5.1 Background .................................................................................................................................. 23 3.5.2 Derivation of state demand traces used in modelling .................................................................. 24 3.5.3 Derivation of nodal demand traces used in modelling ................................................................. 25 3.5.4 Methodology used to calculate nodal demand for Gladstone and South West Queensland Nodes .................................................................................................................................................... 26 3.5.5 Methodology used to account for electricity demand associated with aluminium smelting in other ANEM nodes ......................................................................................................................................... 28 3.6 Practical implementation ............................................................................................................. 28 3.6.1 Scheduled O&M ........................................................................................................................... 28 3.6.2 General use of 2019-20 ISP assumptions ................................................................................... 30 3.6.3 New entrant generation ................................................................................................................ 31 3.6.4 Conventional hydro ...................................................................................................................... 32 3.6.5 Modelling Pump hydro ................................................................................................................. 32 3.6.6 Transmission network scenarios and augmentations .................................................................. 34 3.7 VRE data compilation ................................................................................................................... 38 3.7.1 VRE compilation: 2030 pipeline scenario .................................................................................... 38 3.7.3 VRE compilation: ISP scenarios .................................................................................................. 43 3.7.4 Analysis of 2030 pipeline and 2030 ISP central scenario VRE penetration capacity results for QLD ....................................................................................................................................................... 45 4 Outcomes from of Modelled Scenarios ......................................................................................... 48 4.1 Modelled scenarios ....................................................................................................................... 48 4.1.1 2030 pipeline scenarios ............................................................................................................... 48 4.1.2 ISP scenarios ............................................................................................................................... 49 4.2 Analysis of 2030 pipeline scenario ............................................................................................. 50 4.2.1 Analysis of production shares by technology/fuel type ................................................................ 50 4.2.2 VRE spillage ................................................................................................................................. 53 4.2.3 Power flow direction and congestion ........................................................................................... 55 4.3 Sensitivity of 2030 pipeline results to the inclusion of Mt Bryon and Urannah pump hydro plant in the modelling ......................................................................................................................... 61 2 4.3.1 Analysis of production shares by technology/fuel type and VRE spillage ................................... 61 4.4 Analysis of ISP 2030 central scenario ........................................................................................ 63 4.5 Analysis of ISP 2030 step change scenario ............................................................................... 67 4.5.1 Analysis of production shares by technology/fuel type ................................................................ 67 4.5.2 VRE spillage rates ........................................................................................................................ 68 4.5.3 Direction of power flow and branch congestion outcomes .......................................................... 68 4.6 Analysis of ISP 2040 central scenario ........................................................................................ 72 4.6.1 Analysis of production shares by technology/fuel type ................................................................ 72 4.6.2 VRE spillage rates ........................................................................................................................ 73 4.6.3 Direction of power flow and branch congestion outcomes .......................................................... 74 5 Modelling Transmission Losses .................................................................................................... 77 5.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 77 5.1 Modelling transmission losses as fictitious nodal demands ................................................... 77 5.1.1 Transmission loss outcomes ........................................................................................................ 78 5.2 Modelling marginal loss factors .................................................................................................. 82 5.2.1 Results from modelling of marginal losses .................................................................................. 83 6 Discussion ........................................................................................................................................ 92 6.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 92 6.1. Transmission Network Adequacy .............................................................................................. 94 6.2. Balancing Requirements ............................................................................................................. 95 6.3. Other Considerations .................................................................................................................. 96 Appendix A: Glossary of Terms ........................................................................................................ 98 Appendix B. List of Wind and Solar farms included in the VRE scenarios .................................
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