Centre for Policy Futures 31 July 2020 National electricity market nodal modelling final report 2020 Dr Phillip Wild, Centre for Policy Futures University of Queensland Contents Executive Overview .............................................................................................................................. 5 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 8 2 Scope and Objectives of the Electricity Market Modelling Project ............................................... 9 2.1 Research Question ......................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Rationale for Research Question .................................................................................................. 9 2.2.1 Complexity of implementation of Queensland’s Renewable Energy Target. ................................. 9 2.2.2 Existing modelling shortcomings .................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Research proposal ........................................................................................................................ 10 3 Wholesale market modelling approach ......................................................................................... 11 3.1 ANEM model .................................................................................................................................. 11 3.2 Principal features of the ANEM model ........................................................................................ 11 3.2.1 Transmission grid characteristics in the ANEM model ................................................................ 12 3.2.2 Demand-side agents in the ANEM model: LSE’s ........................................................................ 12 3.2.3 Supply-side agents in the ANEM model: generators ................................................................... 19 3.3 DC OPF solution algorithm used ................................................................................................. 19 3.4 Modelling transmission losses .................................................................................................... 21 3.5 Methodology and data sources underpinning state and nodal demand traces to be used in the modelling ....................................................................................................................................... 23 3.5.1 Background .................................................................................................................................. 23 3.5.2 Derivation of state demand traces used in modelling .................................................................. 24 3.5.3 Derivation of nodal demand traces used in modelling ................................................................. 25 3.5.4 Methodology used to calculate nodal demand for Gladstone and South West Queensland Nodes .................................................................................................................................................... 26 3.5.5 Methodology used to account for electricity demand associated with aluminium smelting in other ANEM nodes ......................................................................................................................................... 28 3.6 Practical implementation ............................................................................................................. 28 3.6.1 Scheduled O&M ........................................................................................................................... 28 3.6.2 General use of 2019-20 ISP assumptions ................................................................................... 30 3.6.3 New entrant generation ................................................................................................................ 31 3.6.4 Conventional hydro ...................................................................................................................... 32 3.6.5 Modelling Pump hydro ................................................................................................................. 32 3.6.6 Transmission network scenarios and augmentations .................................................................. 34 3.7 VRE data compilation ................................................................................................................... 38 3.7.1 VRE compilation: 2030 pipeline scenario .................................................................................... 38 3.7.3 VRE compilation: ISP scenarios .................................................................................................. 43 3.7.4 Analysis of 2030 pipeline and 2030 ISP central scenario VRE penetration capacity results for QLD ....................................................................................................................................................... 45 4 Outcomes from of Modelled Scenarios ......................................................................................... 48 4.1 Modelled scenarios ....................................................................................................................... 48 4.1.1 2030 pipeline scenarios ............................................................................................................... 48 4.1.2 ISP scenarios ............................................................................................................................... 49 4.2 Analysis of 2030 pipeline scenario ............................................................................................. 50 4.2.1 Analysis of production shares by technology/fuel type ................................................................ 50 4.2.2 VRE spillage ................................................................................................................................. 53 4.2.3 Power flow direction and congestion ........................................................................................... 55 4.3 Sensitivity of 2030 pipeline results to the inclusion of Mt Bryon and Urannah pump hydro plant in the modelling ......................................................................................................................... 61 2 4.3.1 Analysis of production shares by technology/fuel type and VRE spillage ................................... 61 4.4 Analysis of ISP 2030 central scenario ........................................................................................ 63 4.5 Analysis of ISP 2030 step change scenario ............................................................................... 67 4.5.1 Analysis of production shares by technology/fuel type ................................................................ 67 4.5.2 VRE spillage rates ........................................................................................................................ 68 4.5.3 Direction of power flow and branch congestion outcomes .......................................................... 68 4.6 Analysis of ISP 2040 central scenario ........................................................................................ 72 4.6.1 Analysis of production shares by technology/fuel type ................................................................ 72 4.6.2 VRE spillage rates ........................................................................................................................ 73 4.6.3 Direction of power flow and branch congestion outcomes .......................................................... 74 5 Modelling Transmission Losses .................................................................................................... 77 5.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 77 5.1 Modelling transmission losses as fictitious nodal demands ................................................... 77 5.1.1 Transmission loss outcomes ........................................................................................................ 78 5.2 Modelling marginal loss factors .................................................................................................. 82 5.2.1 Results from modelling of marginal losses .................................................................................. 83 6 Discussion ........................................................................................................................................ 92 6.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 92 6.1. Transmission Network Adequacy .............................................................................................. 94 6.2. Balancing Requirements ............................................................................................................. 95 6.3. Other Considerations .................................................................................................................. 96 Appendix A: Glossary of Terms ........................................................................................................ 98 Appendix B. List of Wind and Solar farms included in the VRE scenarios .................................