The Netherlands voted yesterday to elect a new Parliament, with talks now set to begin on the formation of a new government. 2017 is a crucial year for Europe, with France and Germany also going to the polls, and this DeHavilland EU briefing takes a first look at the results of this potential bellwether of an election. The 2017 Dutch Parliament, or Tweede Kamer, election had been framed as a race between incumbent, liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte and right-wing populist Geert Wilders. By this metric, the voters delivered a clear win for the former, in a contest that saw a high turnout of over 80%. The governing VVD remains the largest party by a clear margin with around 21% of the vote, while Wilders' PVV, despite picking up seats, did not make the hoped-for breakthrough. Whether this is a predictor of results in the upcoming French and German elections remains to be seen, but leaders around Europe were quick to offer relieved congratulations. Meanwhile, as is so often the case with junior coalition partners, the Labour Party (PvdA) was all but wiped out at the ballot box, losing around three quarters of its seats. The Green Party, GroenLinks, was the biggest winner, jumping from 4 seats to 14. The Christian Democrats and the liberal left D66 performed strongly, with over 12% of the vote each, and both look likely to feature in the next coalition government. Negotiations on this will now start, and at least four parties will be needed to form a majority. The evenly distributed nature of the results mean that Rutte will have a number of different options. © DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 1 European Union – The reaction from The Labour Party (PvdA) – There is little European leaders and politicians speaks doubt that the biggest loser from the volumes about what happened in the Dutch election was the centre-left PvdA. It lost 29 election. There was concern that a strong seats which is the worst electoral result in performance from Geert Wilders' PVV Dutch history – hardly an enviable record to would signal a hat-trick of populist victories have. The collapse in the PvdA voter base – following Brexit and President Trump’s appears to be the result of its role in the election. Instead, what transpired was a previous governing coalition. Its supporters strong showing for liberal, pro-EU parties have seemingly favoured other left-wing such as the VVD, CDA and D66. The alternatives, such as the the GreenLeft and apparent halt in the nationalist and populist Socialist Party instead. tide will give confidence to pro-Europeans in France and Germany ahead of elections Geert Wilders (PVV) – Whilst gaining five there. seats, the far-right and anti-EU PVV fell short of expectations and it faces exclusion Mark Rutte (VVD) – Despite losing eight from talks to form a new governing seats, Mark Rutte’s VVD still won the coalition. Having said this, Mr Wilders has largest share of the vote and it now has 33 shifted the centre-ground in Dutch politics seats. As a consequence, it will take a which even figures like Mark Rutte have leading role in forming a governing had to coalesce around. It remains to be coalition. Mr Rutte has been strengthened seen how Mr Wilders’ nationalist, populist, by the dispute with Turkish President and anti-EU platform will feature in the Erdogan and a third successive term as new Dutch political landscape. Prime Minister appears to beckon. Nationalists – Although Geert Wilders D66 and Chistian Democratic Appeal – continues to assert that a “patriotic spring” The collapse of the centre-left PvdA has will occur, nationalists and right-wing been capitalised upon by other parties, such populists throughout Europe will have been as the centrist Christian Democrats CDA disheartened as the election results rolled and left-liberal D66. Both parties made in. The fact that pro-EU parties had the gains and now have 19 seats each. Gains most success will be welcome news to made by other smaller parties allude to the Brussels. fragmentation of Dutch politics after years of centrist parties’ dominance. GreenLeft (GL) – The biggest winner from the election was GroenLinks (GL), having gained 10 seats to bring their total to 14. The left-wing insurgents capitalised on the collapse of the PvdA voter base. © DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 2 50PLUS SGP Denk FvD 4 3 3 2 PvdD VVD 5 33 CU 5 PvdA 9 SP 14 PVV 20 GL 14 D66 CDA 19 19 VVD 33 -8 The Liberal Party VVD of incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte PVV 20 +5 remains the country's biggest party, even though it is set to lose 8 seats. CDA 19 +6 As Rutte put it: one previous case set aside, the VVD is now the smallest biggest party in Dutch history. The PVV of far-right populist D66 19 +7 Geert Wilders, in the opinion polls ahead of elections day in a neck and GL 14 +10 neck race with the VVD, received considerably less votes than SP 14 -1 expected, but still sees an increase in the number of Parliament seats PvdA 9 -29 for the next four years. CU 5 0 PvdD 5 +3 The Christian Democrat CDA and liberal left D66 follow closely, both 50PLUS 4 +2 increasing their number of seats, and both seen as very likely coalition SGP 3 0 partners in a future government. The party that enjoyed the highest Denk 3 +3 increase in votes, and therefore described by some as the greatest FvD 2 +2 winner, is green party GroenLinks (GL). © DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 3 Where there are winners, there are losers, and this holds certainly true for the PvdA. The Dutch Labour Party, which was junior coalition party in the last government, saw its number of seats dropped dramatically from 38 to 9. Several smaller parties do have reason to celebrate, as they either keep the same number of seats, or increased their presence in the Dutch Parliament. Two parties will enter Parliament for the first time: DENK, a party established by former Labour Party members, and the Eurosceptic FvD. Despite the relieved reactions from other EU countries about the containment of Eurosceptic populist Geert Wilders, the Netherlands itself also sees the election result as heavy criticism of its government's policy over the last four years, with both governing parties losing seats and especially junior coalition partner PvdA suffering an enormous blow. With several opposition parties gaining a stronger position in the Parliament, forming a coalition is going to be an interesting exercise. As Mark Rutte said himself, the government formation is likely going to be "complex". Following the elections in 2012, it took the parties 49 days to form a coalition, and negotiations look set to be even more complex this year. We look below at some of the possible options. All parties have firmly stated before the elections that they will not work together in a coalition with Geert Wilders' PVV, and though it remains to be seen whether they will live up to their promise, at least VVD and CDA should remember their last government cooperation with the PVV in 2010 - 2012, which failed. A Centre-right Alliance The Netherlands' biggest party VVD can form an alliance with parties on the centre-right: liberal left D66 and Christian Democrats CDA, with additional support from the ChristenUnie (CU), a smaller party ideologically close to the CDA. Rutte has already indicated that he would like to form a government with CDA and D66, so this coalition seems most likely, provided support from a fourth party such as CU is obtained. A Centrist Government with GroenLinks or PvdA Mark Rutte could also opt for a more centrist government with green party GroenLinks, which would include the liberal left D66 and the Christian Democrats as well. Alternatively, Labour Party PvdA could be involved in the coalition again, but following its defeat, the party has indicated that being part of the opposition would be a more likely option. A Progressive Coalition If Mark Rutte does not succeed in forming a government that involves his own party, other options will be brought to the table that may exclude the VVD. However, without the VVD present, a coalition with a large number of smaller parties will be necessary to get the required majority of 76 Parliament seats, with the support of the Christian Democrats. This coalition would then further include GroenLinks, PvdA, Socialist Party, PvdD and D66. © DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2017 4 European leaders must have awaited the results of the Dutch elections with some anxiety, especially in France and Germany, where the Dutch election results could be an indicator for their own national elections later this year. Despite a gain in seats, the rise of the Eurosceptic far-right PVV was somewhat contained and European leaders' reactions following the votes therefore mainly expressed relief. Reactions to the result also came from the EU level. "It is also an evening in which the Netherlands, after Brexit, after the American elections, said ‘stop’ to the wrong kind of populism" – Incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte "I would rather have been the largest party, but we are not a party that has lost. We gained seats. That’s a result to be proud of" – PVV leader Geert Wilders "I warmly congratulate Mark Rutte for his clear victory against extremism" – French President François Hollande "The Netherlands are our partners, friends, neighbours. Therefore I was very happy that a high turnout led to a very pro-European result, a clear signal.