17 September 2012 Americas/Canada Equity Research Steel Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp. (LIF_u.TO) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (14 Sep 12, C$) 30.80 FORECAST REDUCTION Target price (C$) 40.00¹ 52-week price range 38.65 - 26.82 Market cap. (C$ m) 1,971.20 Iron Ore Company of Canada site visit Enterprise value (C$ m) 1,935.54 *Stock ratings are relative to the relevant country benchmark. ¹Target price is for 12 months. ■ On Friday 14 September we visited the Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC) assets in Canada’s Labrador Trough. The visit was part of a week- Research Analysts long North American tour hosted by LIF_u.TO’s equity partner, Rio Tinto. Nathan Littlewood This was our tenth trip to the Labrador Trough in the past 12 months, and we 1 416 352 4585
[email protected] have now seen all of the operating iron ore mines in the region except for Yan Truong CLF’s Wabush. 1 416 352 4584
[email protected] ■ Key takeaways: 1) capex for CEP1 was revised up to US$628mn ($539mn) – we believe this compromises distributions to LIF_u.TO unitholders by around $0.21/sh. 2) The CEP3 (23.3 to 26mtpa) expansion is apparently less defined than we had previously understood and in the current market, its approval would seem far from a certainty. We trimmed our LT capacity forecasts from 26 to 23.3mtpa. 3) IOC has had far less contact with the junior mining companies in recent weeks with regard to infrastructure access – presumably a function of the iron ore market.