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Entrepreneurialism Fully Priced Target Price HKD 70.40 Starts At70.40 Closing Price HKD 67.40 May 30, 2011 Potential Upside +4.5%

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Entrepreneurialism Fully Priced Target Price HKD 70.40 Starts At70.40 Closing Price HKD 67.40 May 30, 2011 Potential Upside +4.5% Glencore 0805.HK 805 HK BASIC MATERIALS EQUITY RESEARCH May 31, 2011 Initiating at NEUTRAL with TP of HKD70.40 Rating Starts at Neutral Entrepreneurialism fully priced Target price HKD 70.40 Starts at70.40 Closing price HKD 67.40 May 30, 2011 Potential upside +4.5% Action/Valuation: Expensive relative to mining peers; NEUTRAL Anchor themes Glencore is evolving from a trading house whose mining assets principally We expect the mining sector to served to feed its marketing business into one whose mining assets outperform in 2011, with become the key driver of group earnings. Although we find Glencore's thermal coal being our management to be the most entrepreneurial team in the sector, we think preferred commodity pick. valuations are expensive relative to mining peers. Our HKD70.40 TP represents a 10% holding company discount to our SOTP NPV valuation. Nomura vs consensus Coverage on the street is Mining assets: higher volume growth, but with higher risk and costs currently sparse. Excluding Xstrata, we estimate an attributable copper equivalent CAGR for Glencore of 7.5% over 2011-2015E (vs an average of 5.2% for the Research analysts diversified miners). Glencore’s high growth is partly offset by higher geographical risk and a higher cost profile, with average costs mostly in Singapore Basic Materials the third quartile of industry cost curves. Tanuj Shori - NSL [email protected] A high-quality and counter-cyclical marketing business +65 6433 6981 Glencore’s marketing business has dominant market shares, high barriers to entry and counter-cyclical cash generation, and we believe it should European Metals & Mining trade in line with or at a small discount to Noble (because of Noble’s Paul Cliff - NI plc [email protected] greater exposure to agriculture, which tends to be less cyclical, and its +44 20 7102 4349 faster earnings growth, offset to some extent by Glencore’s higher RoCE). Patrick Jones - NI plc [email protected] M&A strategy: Xstrata merger unlikely for now +44 20 7102 5486 We would be surprised to see Xstrata’s board recommend a nil-premium European Steel merger of equals while Glencore trades at a relative valuation premium. Jeff Largey - NI plc Also, we don’t think Glencore would pay a large takeover premium for [email protected] Xstrata, given Glencore’s opportunistic M&A history. +44 20 7102 0021 31 Dec FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F Currency (USD) Actual Old New Old New Old New Revenue (mn) 144,978 198,108 224,543 215,161 Reported net profit (mn) 3,751 7,340 9,547 9,132 Normalised net profit (mn) 3,751 7,340 9,547 9,132 Normalised EPS 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.3 Norm. EPS growth (%) 129.7 95.7 30.1 -4.3 Norm. P/E (x) 16.9 N/A 8.6 N/A 6.6 N/A 6.9 EV/EBITDA 14.3 N/A 6.8 N/A 5.6 N/A 5.4 See Appendix A-1 for analyst Price/book (x) 3.1 N/A 1.7 N/A 1.3 N/A 1.1 certification and important Dividend yield (%) na N/A 1.7 N/A 1.7 N/A 1.8 disclosures. Analysts employed by non US affiliates are not ROE (%) 20.7 26.4 23.7 18.8 registered or qualified as Net debt/equity (%) 146.2 55.1 42.3 25.8 research analysts with FINRA in the US. Source: Nomura estimates Key company data: See page 2 for company data, and detailed price/index chart. Rating: See report end for details of Nomura’s rating system. Nomura | ASIA Glencore May 31, 2011 Key data on Glencore Income statement (USDmn) Year-end 31 Dec FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F Notes Revenue 106,364 144,978 198,108 224,543 215,161 Strong earnings growth to last Cost of goods sold -103,057 -139,688 -187,430 -211,480 -202,556 through FY11-12F, in our view Gross profit 3,307 5,290 10,677 13,063 12,605 SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit 3,307 5,290 10,677 13,063 12,605 EBITDA 3,929 6,201 11,664 14,104 13,538 Depreciation -622 -911-987 -1,041 -934 Amortisation EBIT 3,307 5,290 10,677 13,063 12,605 Net interest expense -587 -936-1,602 -1,114 -1,059 Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax 2,720 4,354 9,076 11,949 11,545 Income tax -238 -234 -758 -1,193 -1,177 Net profit after tax 2,482 4,120 8,318 10,756 10,368 Minority interests -96 -355 -978 -1,209 -1,236 Other items -753 -14 0 0 0 Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT 1,633 3,751 7,340 9,547 9,132 Extraordinary items Reported NPAT 1,633 3,751 7,340 9,547 9,132 Dividends 0 0-1,000 -1,040 -1,082 Transfer to reserves 1,633 3,751 6,340 8,507 8,050 Valuation and ratio analysis FD normalised P/E (x) 38.8 16.98.6 6.6 6.9 FD normalised P/E at price target (x) 40.8 17.7 9.1 7.0 7.3 Reported P/E (x) 36.7 16.08.2 6.3 6.6 Dividend yield (%) na na1.7 1.7 1.8 Price/cashflow (x) na 571.037.4 19.1 8.6 Price/book (x) 3.6 3.11.7 1.3 1.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.0 14.36.8 5.6 5.4 EV/EBIT (x) 25.0 16.77.5 6.0 5.8 Price and price relative chart (one year) Gross margin (%) 3.1 3.65.4 5.8 5.9 Price EBITDA margin (%) 3.7 4.35.9 6.3 6.3 (HKD) Rel MSCI HK EBIT margin (%) 3.1 3.65.4 5.8 5.9 67.5 100.5 Net margin (%) 1.5 2.63.7 4.3 4.2 Effective tax rate (%) 8.8 5.48.4 10.0 10.2 67 100 Dividend payout (%) 0.0 0.013.6 10.9 11.8 66.5 99.5 Capex to sales (%) 1.0 1.31.0 0.7 0.6 66 99 Capex to depreciation (x) 1.8 2.12.1 1.4 1.3 65.5 98.5 ROE (%) na 20.726.4 23.7 18.8 ROA (pretax %) na 7.412.8 13.9 12.6 65 98 64.5 97.5 Growth (%) Revenue na 36.336.6 13.3 -4.2 EBITDA na 57.888.1 20.9 -4.0 (%) 1M 3M 12M EBIT na 60.0101.8 22.3 -3.5 Absolute (HKD) Normalised EPS na 129.7 95.7 30.1 -4.3 Absolute (USD) Normalised FDEPS na 129.7 95.7 30.1 -4.3 Relative to index Market cap (USDmn) 59,656.3 Per share Estimated free float 20.0 Reported EPS (USD) 0.24 0.541.06 1.38 1.32 (%) Norm EPS (USD) 0.24 0.541.06 1.38 1.32 52-week range (HKD) 67.3/64.55 3-mth avg daily Fully diluted norm EPS (USD) 0.22 0.511.00 1.30 1.25 57.99 turnover (USDmn) Book value per share (USD) 2.41 2.835.20 6.43 7.59 Major shareholders DPS (USD) 0.00 0.000.14 0.15 0.16 (%) Source: Nomura estimates Ivan Glasenberg 15.7 2 Nomura | ASIA Glencore May 31, 2011 Cashflow (USDmn) Year-end 31 Dec FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F Notes EBITDA 3,929 6,20111,664 14,104 13,538 Positive operating cashflow expected Change in working capital -5,279 -4,484-3,286 -3,140 1,114 from FY11-13F Other operating cashflow -1,660 -1,606 -6,681 -7,638 -7,323 Cashflow from operations -3,010 111 1,696 3,326 7,329 Capital expenditure -1,116 -1,890-2,039 -1,489 -1,197 Free cashflow -4,126 -1,779 -343 1,837 6,132 Reduction in investments -251 -1,112 -3,421 -4,214 -3,938 Net acquisitions Reduction in other LT assets -507 0 0 0 Addition in other LT liabilities 843 11 11 11 Adjustments 203 -2,0892,748 3,578 3,289 Cashflow after investing acts -4,174 -4,644 -1,006 1,212 5,494 Cash dividends -2 -2 -1,000 -1,040 -1,082 Equity issue 0 0 10,033 0 0 Debt issue 3,087 5,952 0 0 0 Convertible debt issue 1,915 283 0 0 0 Others -792 -9860 0 0 Cashflow from financial acts 4,208 5,247 9,033 -1,040 -1,082 Net cashflow 34 603 8,028 172 4,412 Beginning cash 826 860 1,463 9,491 9,663 Ending cash 860 1,463 9,491 9,663 14,075 Ending net debt 23,131 28,669 19,816 18,819 13,582 Source: Nomura estimates Balance sheet (USDmn) As at 31 Dec FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F Notes Cash & equivalents 860 1,4639,491 9,663 14,075 Stable cash cycle; gearing to come Marketable securities 75 66 66 66 66 down Accounts receivable 15,189 18,994 23,021 26,093 25,002 Inventories 15,073 17,393 19,190 21,751 20,842 Other current assets 6,179 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 Total current assets 37,376 44,016 57,868 63,673 66,086 LT investments 18,083 19,204 22,625 26,840 30,777 Fixed assets 6,845 12,088 13,141 13,589 13,853 Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets 3,972 4,479 4,479 4,479 4,479 Total assets 66,276 79,787 98,113 108,580 115,195 Short-term debt 7,186 11,881 11,881 11,881 11,881 Accounts payable 11,482 16,145 18,683 21,176 20,291 Other current liabilities 11,913 8,8128,812 8,812 8,812 Total current liabilities 30,581 36,838 39,376 41,869 40,984 Long-term debt 16,403 18,251 17,426 16,601 15,776 Convertible debt Other LT liabilities 1,348 2,191 2,202 2,213 2,224 Total liabilities 48,332 57,280 59,004 60,683 58,984 Minority interest 1,258 2,894 3,123 3,405 3,668 Preferred stock 0 0000 Common stock 46 4661 61 61 Retained earnings 4,395 5,378 21,736 30,243 38,293 Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves 12,245 14,189 14,189 14,189 14,189 Total shareholders' equity 16,686 19,613 35,986 44,493 52,543 Total equity & liabilities 66,276 79,787 98,113 108,580 115,195 Liquidity (x) Current ratio 1.22 1.19 1.47 1.52 1.61 Interest cover 5.6 5.76.7 11.7 11.9 Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) 5.89 4.621.70 1.33 1.00 Net debt/equity (%) 138.6 146.255.1 42.3 25.8 Activity (days) Days receivable na 43.0 38.7 40.0 43.3 Days inventory na 42.435.6 35.4 38.4 Days payable na 36.133.9 34.5 37.4 Cash cycle na 49.440.4 41.0 44.4 Source: Nomura estimates 3 Nomura | ASIA Glencore May 31, 2011 Contents 5 Executive summary: NEUTRAL, HKD70.40 TP Research analysts Singapore Basic Materials 7 Valuation (NEUTRAL, TP HKD70.40) Tanuj Shori - NSL [email protected] 12 The marketing business +65 6433 6981 Tushar Mohata - NFASL [email protected] 12 The industrial business – listed assets +91 22 6723 4042 13 The industrial business – unlisted assets European Metals & Mining Paul Cliff - NI plc [email protected] 14 Earnings summary & sensitivity +44 20 7102 4349 Patrick Jones - NI plc 16 Marketing: cyclical earnings, counter-cyclical cash flow [email protected] +44 20 7102 5486 Ashraf Khan - [email protected] 17 M&A: Xstrata merger unlikely for now +91 22 3053 3231 18 Marketing division European Steel Jeff Largey - NI plc 19 Noble-Glencore: a closer comparison [email protected] +44 20 7102 0021 Neil Sampat - NI plc [email protected] 22 Industrial division +44 20 7102 1808 25 Zinc 25 Copper 26 Nickel and alumina 27 Energy 28 Agriculture 29 Glencore financial summary 30 Xstrata financial summary 31 Appendix 31 Share lockups, indexation, and key management 33 Appendix A-1 4 Nomura | ASIA Glencore May 31, 2011 Executive summary: NEUTRAL, HKD70.40 TP We initiate coverage of Glencore with a NEUTRAL recommendation and HKD70.40 target price.
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