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Global Energy Outlook a Compelling Time to Invest

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Cross Asset Research Commodities, Credit and Equity Views 4 September 2013 Global Energy Outlook A compelling time to invest Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/ qualified as research analysts with FINRA. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S), PLEASE SEE PAGE 131. FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 131. FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 132. Barclays | Global Energy Outlook OVERVIEW A compelling time to invest Tim Whittaker There has rarely been a more compelling time to invest in energy. That is the main +44 (0)203 134 6696 conclusion from this edition of our Global Energy Outlook. Heightened geopolitical risks [email protected] across the Middle East and North Africa have emphasised just how little spare capacity Barclays, London exists within the global oil market, and fears of an oil price collapse have receded. Coupled with a likely operational turnaround from the oil majors and compelling valuations in many sectors, most notably in equities, we now expect the energy sector’s underperformance of recent months to reverse. We highlight the integrated and E&P companies in Europe, the refiners and oil leveraged E&Ps in North America, and oil service companies globally. We also recommend selected investment grade credits in US oil services and pipelines. We see power utilities as attractive in certain markets, notably Texas and the UK. Geopolitical undercurrents Firstly though, we return to a familiar theme of previous Global Energy Outlooks – the oil market. While crude prices have traded in a tight range, the geopolitical environment is more volatile. We remain resolute that Brent prices will stay above $100/bl, with the expectation that they will trade within a $100-120/bl range through 2014. Prices are now above Bloomberg consensus forecasts for the first time since February, and the political climate in several producer countries is fragile. Syrian output is small in global terms, but that is not the case in Iraq, Libya or Nigeria, or if the Egypt situation leads to disruption of Suez Canal cargoes, with potential upside price risks. Constructive oil price outlook The biggest single driver of oil supply growth is US production, which will be up 1m bls/d on our forecasts for 2013, more than 80% of total non-OPEC growth. Demand growth continues to trend at around 900kbd annually, despite falls in Europe. Our balances show inventories will be flat globally in Q3, with a small build in Q4 so prices may soften at that time. Given the aforementioned geopolitical undercurrents, the ongoing challenge of declining production from existing fields and with developed economies on the mend, we remain constructive on oil prices for the next several years. WTI/Brent spread to widen Collapsing North American crude differentials will also reverse over the coming months, in our view. Recent spreads do not support the economics of east-bound rail cargoes from the Bakken region, based on our estimates, and on some occasions have even been too low to cover pipeline costs. We expect Louisiana Light Sweet crude to settle into a structural price discount to Brent by year end, which should contribute to a widening Brent/WTI spread. Henry Hub around $4/MMBtu US natural gas supply growth continues to surprise to the upside. This, along with a cool summer, saw inventories rebuild more quickly than markets anticipated. Looking ahead, tightening balances as industrial demand strengthens should allow prices to strengthen, but only marginally into 2014 on our forecasts. We expect Henry Hub to average $3.73/MMBtu in 2013 and $3.88/MMBtu in 2014. Robust global LNG demand Global LNG markets have been robust and we expect continued strength through 2014. Demand is strong from LatAm and Asia, while the one year supply outlook is flat with declines in the Atlantic basin and Indonesia offsetting growth in Australia and the Middle East. Remain overweight equities vs Energy credits and equities have, with few exceptions, underperformed their markets in all credit regions over the last six months. Equities have generally performed better than credit, with the notable exception of Asia, where equities have been hit badly by the China/commodities/EM drag. Our asset allocation view is still to own equities over credit. Our bottom-up sector views are also more positive on equities. 4 September 2013 1 Barclays | Global Energy Outlook Equities underperformance to In equities we are confident that energy’s period of underperformance will reverse. We reverse recently upgraded the integrated oil sector view in Europe to Positive, where valuations are at 20-year lows vs the market. Production, earnings and cash flow turn significantly more positive for the companies in 2014 on our forecasts, reducing cash break-evens for the first time since 2003. Shell, Eni, BG and GALP are best placed here. We are also positive on the US integrateds, preferring oil price leverage and a good execution track record. ConocoPhillips and Suncor are our preferred names. The European E&Ps have seen oil price fears and some weak well results drag down share prices, and the sector now looks materially undervalued, offering more than 50% potential upside to our price targets. We recommend Premier Oil and Afren – both of which have a diversified asset base and material growth opportunities. In the US we continue to prefer the high quality oil levered E&P names - EOG, Noble and Anadarko, plus Concho Resources and SM Energy of the mid-caps. In Canada we also prefer oil biased names, although as with the European integrateds we note the challenges some have in funding capex and dividends from cash flow. Canadian names we recommend are Suncor, MEG Energy, Baytex and Crescent Point. One area where E&Ps have performed spectacularly, with more to go given ongoing exploration potential, is Israel. Our top pick here is Isramco. For the US refiners we reiterate our conviction, as we expect the WTI-Brent spread to widen again; Tesoro and Valero are our top picks. We also have strong conviction in oil services globally, with robust oil prices, capex budgets rising, the US onshore market showing signs of recovery and discount valuations. Since our last Global Energy Outlook we have initiated coverage on Asian oil services, where we recommend Anton Oil. In Europe our top oil service picks are Technip and Subsea 7; in the US they are Schlumberger and Halliburton, although we expect all of the Big Four (including Baker Hughes and Weatherford) to do well. More cautious in credit, In credit we are more cautious than in previous Global Energy Outlooks, with only the US HG recommend Oil Services Oil Services, HG Pipelines and HY Energy sectors, plus HY Coal and HY Energy in Asia, rated Overweight by our global team vs the wider credit universe. We characterise the credit market’s love-hate relationship with risk as presenting periodic opportunities for investors to acquire high-quality credits at discounted spreads. Our recommended HG credit in US oil services is Transocean; in pipelines we highlight the wider spreads of Enterprise Products and Plains All American. We also recommend oil-weighted E&Ps in US HY credit, where Halcon Resources bonds are our top pick. In Asia energy we are overweight CNOOC and Reliance bonds, as well as Berau ‘15s and Indika ‘16s and ‘18s in the coal sector. We provide a comprehensive list of credit opportunities in our “Summary of Themes” on page 8. Utilities – Texas and UK Power utilities still face regulatory and demand challenges, and only offer select regional opportunities, in our view. We highlight Texas as the most investible market in the US, where we recommend NRG Energy. In Europe we prefer the UK, where the Electricity Market Reform should underwrite earnings for generators; here we recommend Drax. In India the industry is facing power back-downs and fuel supply issues. We prefer defensive names, and highlight NTPC and Power Grid. Regulated utilities also screen well in Europe, where we recommend Snam and National Grid; and in the US, where our top pick is Dominion Resources over Northeast Utilities and Emera. This summary sets out just a few of the ideas of our energy analysts globally. The following pages detail the opinions of all of our analysts across commodities, credit and equities. Ahead of our CEO Energy Conference in New York, on September 11-13, we feel there has rarely been a more compelling time to invest in energy. We hope our views help you with your investment process. 4 September 2013 2 Barclays | Global Energy Outlook CONTENTS Overview: A compelling time to invest ............................................................................................... 1 Price performance .................................................................................................................................. 4 Summary of energy themes.................................................................................................................. 8 Commodities ..............................................................................................
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