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Power Sector Vision for the Greater Mekong Subregion

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ALTERNATIVES FOR POWER GENERATION IN THE GREATER MEKONG SUBREGION Volume 1: Power Sector Vision for the Greater Mekong Subregion Final 5 April 2016 FINAL Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Intelligent Energy Systems Pty Ltd (IES) and Mekong EConomiCs (MKE) in relation to provision oF serviCes to World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF). This report is supplied in good Faith and reFleCts the knowledge, expertise and experienCe oF IES and MKE. In ConduCting the researCh and analysis For this report IES and MKE have endeavoured to use what it Considers is the best inFormation available at the date oF publiCation. IES and MKE make no representations or warranties as to the acCuracy oF the assumptions or estimates on whiCh the ForeCasts and CalCulations are based. IES and MKE make no representation or warranty that any CalCulation, projeCtion, assumption or estimate Contained in this report should or will be achieved. The relianCe that the ReCipient places upon the CalCulations and projeCtions in this report is a matter For the ReCipient’s own CommerCial judgement and IES acCepts no responsibility whatsoever For any loss oCCasioned by any person acting or reFraining From action as a result oF relianCe on this report. Intelligent Energy Systems IESREF: 5973 ii FINAL Executive Summary Introduction Intelligent Energy Systems Pty Ltd (“IES”) and Mekong EConomiCs (“MKE”) have been retained by World Wild Fund For Nature Greater Mekong Programme OFFiCe (“WWF-GMPO”) to undertake a projeCt Called “ProduCe a Comprehensive report outlining alternatives For power generation in the Greater Mekong Sub-region”. This is to develop sCenarios For the Countries oF the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) that are as Consistent as possible with the WWF’s Global Energy Vision to the Power SeCtors oF all Greater Mekong Subregion Countries. The objeCtives oF WWF’s vision are: (i) Contribute to reduCtion oF global greenhouse emissions (Cut by >80% oF 1990 levels by 2050); (ii) reduCe dependenCy on unsustainable hydro and nuClear; (iii) enhanCe energy acCess; (iv) take advantage oF new teChnologies and solutions; (v) enhanCe power seCtor planning Frameworks For the region: multi-stakeholder partiCipatory proCess; and (vi) develop enhanCements For energy poliCy Frameworks. The purpose oF this report is to provide a summary oF the 5 detailed Country-level desCriptions oF three sCenarios For the Greater Mekong Subregion provided in the separate Country reports, as well as an overview oF regional impliCations oF suCh a transition to a sustainable power seCtor. The three sCenarios were • Business as Usual (BAU) power generation development path whiCh is based on Current power planning practiCes, Current poliCy objeCtives; • Sustainable Energy SeCtor (SES) sCenario, where measures are taken to maximally deploy renewable energy1 and energy eFFiCienCy measures to achieve a near-100% renewable energy power seCtor; and • AdvanCed Sustainable Energy SeCtor (ASES) sCenario, whiCh assumes a more rapid advanCement and deployment oF new and renewable teChnologies as Compared to the SES. The sCenarios were based on publiC data, independent assessments oF resourCe potentials, inFormation obtained From published reports and power system modelling oF the GMS region For the period 2015 to 2050. Greater Mekong Subregion The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) is deFined to be a set oF Countries loCated around the Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia. In 1992, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) deFined the six states oF King oF Cambodia (“Cambodia”), Lao People’s DemoCratiC RepubliC (“Lao PDR”), Union oF the RepubliC oF Myanmar (“Myanmar”), 1 Proposed but not Committed Fossil Fuel based projects are not developed. Committed and existing Fossil Fuel based projeCts are retired at the end of their liFetime and not replaCed with other Fossil Fuel projeCts. A least Cost combination oF renewable energy generation is developed to meet demand. Intelligent Energy Systems IESREF: 5973 iii FINAL Kingdom oF Thailand (“Thailand”), SoCialist RepubliC oF Viet Nam (“Viet Nam”) and the Yunnan ProvinCe2 oF the People’s RepubliC oF China (PRC) as an eConomiC zone. However, For the purpose oF this projeCt, we reFer to the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) to Consist oF five Countries: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and (5) SoCialist RepubliC oF Viet Nam (“Viet Nam”). The GMS Countries are illustrated as Figure 1. Figure 1 The GMS and its location within Asia Mandalay VIETNAM Hanoi Luang Prabang MYANMAR LAO PDR Chiang Rai Chiang Mai Vientiane Vientiane Yangon THAILAND Bangkok Angkor CAMBODIA Siem Reap Phnom Penh Ho Chi Minh City Greater Mekong Subregion Power Sectors Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam, with a Combined GDP oF 662 US billion and population oF 232 million in 2014 form one oF the Fastest growing regions in the world. Over the last deCade the GMS region has experienCed signiFiCant eConomiC growth. This is evidenCed in Figure 2 which shows historiCal 2 Note that often the GMS is sometimes also deFined to include the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region – see Asian Development Bank (ADB), “Greater Mekong Subregion EConomiC Cooperation Program”, November 2014, available: http://www.adb.org/sites/deFault/Files/publiCation/29387/gms-ecp-overview.pdf. However, the sCope of this study was to Consider Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam and treatment oF these five countries as a region. Intelligent Energy Systems IESREF: 5973 iv FINAL average Real GDP growth rates oF the GMS Countries Compared to those oF the world. The high growth rates are attributable to the Countries within the GMS taking measures to transForm their eConomies to be more open, diversiFied and market-oriented as Compared to the past. This has enabled a steady Flow oF Foreign investment. EFForts have also been taken to remove trade barriers in the GMS member Countries and this has stimulated eConomiC activity and enhanCed the region’s overall ability to beCome integrated into the world eConomy. Figure 2 Average Real GDP growth rates (2000-14) for GMS countries and the world 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Thailand Viet Nam World EConomiC growth has been acCompanied with high levels oF eleCtriCity growth. As illustrated in Table 1, the Final eleCtriCity Consumption and eleCtriCity peak demand have experienCed very high growth rates in most oF the GMS Countries, a trend that the governments oF the GMS Countries expeCt to be sustained For at least the next 5 years to a deCade. Table 1 GMS Country Electricity Demand and Growth Rates (2014) Country Electricity Consumption Peak Demand TWh CAGR3, % MW CAGR4, % Cambodia 4.2 19.4% 687 16.0% Lao PDR 3.4 14.5% 748 12.5% Myanmar 9.6 15.7% 2,235 16.2% Thailand 168.2 4.4% 26,942 2.9% Viet Nam 142.3 12.7% 22,100 10.2% Source: Compiled by Consultant from various sources 3 The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is For the last ten years For Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam, last Five years For Myanmar and twelve years For Thailand. 4 Last Five years For Cambodia, Myanmar, and Thailand, ten years For Lao PDR and Viet Nam. Intelligent Energy Systems IESREF: 5973 v FINAL Figure 3 shows the GMS breakdown oF Consumption by the seCtors. Industry almost acCounts For halF oF eleCtriCity use in the region at 47%, Followed by the residential and CommerCial seCtors at 29% and 23% respeCtively. The Composition oF seCtor Consumption across the region has remained relatively stable with residential energy inCreasing 1% displacing the industrial seCtor between 2005 to 2014 as a result oF inCreasing eleCtriFiCation rates and per Capita Consumption levels in the region. Figure 4 Compares the Countries’ seCtoral Composition oF power Consumption. It indiCates that the industrial seCtor is the largest aggregate electriCity Consumer in Viet Nam (54%), Thailand (43%) and Myanmar (45%); whereas For Cambodia and Lao PDR, the residential seCtor acCounts For the largest part on total Consumption (47% and 35%). The proportion oF CommerCial eleCtriCity Consumption in Viet Nam at 10% is signiFiCantly lower Compared to other Countries. Table 2 provides inFormation on installed Capacity by Fuel type For each GMS Country and Figure 5 Compares the Capacity mix between the Countries. Figure 3 GMS Historical Energy Demand (TWh) by Sector: 2005-14 350 300 250 200 150 100 Energy (TWh, inc losses) 50 0 2005 2010 2014 AgriCulture Industry CommerCial Residenjal Source: IEA (Demand includes transmission and distribution losses), 2014 based on IES estimates Intelligent Energy Systems IESREF: 5973 vi FINAL Figure 4 Electricity Consumption Breakdown by Sector (2014) 100% 90% 24% 32% 80% 35% 35% 47% 70% 60% 20% 10% 33% 50% 31% 40% 29% 30% 45% 54% 43% 20% 33% 10% 21% 0% 3% 1% 3% 1% 0.2% Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Viet Nam Thailand AgriCulture Industry CommerCial Residenjal Table 2 Installed Capacity (MW) by Fuel Type (2014) Generation Type Cambodi Lao PDR Myanmar Thailand Viet Nam a Coal 268 - 120 6,538 10,405 Gas - - 1,325 21,888 6,825 Large Hydro 929 3058 3,011 3,444 13,050 Fuel Oil/Diesel 291 - 87 9 1,738 RE SourCes 23 - 40 2,789* 1034 Solar - - - 464 - Wind - - - 209 52 Small Hydro - - 33 14 800* Biomass 23 - 5 1,851 180* Biogas - - 2* 251 2* Total (MW) 1,511 3,058 4,583 34,668 33,052 Source: Compiled by Consultant from various sources, * = estimated. Intelligent Energy Systems IESREF: 5973 vii FINAL Figure 5 Installed Capacity Mix by Fuel Technology (2014) 100% 3% 8% 5% 19% 10% 80% 39% 66% 60% 61% 61% 100% 40% 21% 20% 29% 31% 18% 21% 0% Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Coal Gas Hydro (Large SCale) Oil / Diesel Renewable Hydro power is dominant in all systems exCept Thailand; Lao PDR’s installed Capacity is entirely based on hydro power while in Myanmar, Cambodia and Viet Nam the shares are around 66%, 61% and 39% respeCtively.
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