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Sedgemoor Town Centres and Retail Study

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Sedgemoor Town Centres and Retail Study Sedgemoor District Council SEDGEMOOR TOWN CENTRES AND RETAIL STUDY Volume 2: Market Share and Spending Pattern Tables June 2009 Sedgemoor Town Centres and Retail Study Spreadsheet 1 - Study Zones by Ward Ward 07 Mid-yr Pop Est Survey Zone Berrow 2,410 1 Burnham North 6,400 1 Burnham South 6,526 1 Brent North 2,270 2 Highbridge 6,306 2 Knoll 2,412 2 Axbridge 2,171 3 Axe Vale 2,250 3 Cheddar and Shipham 6,776 3 Wedmore and Mark 4,738 3 Huntspill and Pawlett 3,781 4 Puriton 2,063 4 Sandford 3,317 4 West Poldens 2,510 4 Woolavington 2,203 4 Bridgwater Eastover 4,330 5 Bridgwater Hamp 6,968 5 Bridgwater Sydenham 6,614 5 Bridgwater Victoria 5,903 5 Bridgwater Bower 6,287 6 East Poldens 2,234 6 King's Isle 4,489 6 Bridgwater Quantock 6,161 7 Cannington and Quantocks 7,231 7 North Petherton 5,817 7 Sedgemoor Town Centres and Retail Study Spreadsheet 2 - Population Projections 2009-2026 All Zones Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total Population 2007 15,336 10,988 15,935 13,874 23,815 13,010 19,209 112,167 Population 2009 15,560 11,110 16,000 13,946 24,571 13,237 19,922 114,344 Population 2011 15,783 11,232 16,066 14,018 25,315 13,463 20,623 116,500 Population 2016 15,827 11,256 16,099 14,053 26,309 15,109 23,148 121,800 Population 2021 16,359 11,526 16,269 14,180 28,290 16,846 23,629 127,100 Population 2026 16,852 11,776 16,427 14,299 30,691 17,635 24,320 132,000 Change in population 2009 - 2011 Numeric change 223 122 65 72 744 225 700 2,156 Percentage change 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% 3.0% 1.7% 3.5% 1.9% Change in population 2011 - 2016 Numeric change 44 24 33 34 994 1,646 2,525 5,300 Percentage change 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 3.9% 12.2% 12.2% 4.5% Change in population 2016 - 2021 Numeric change 533 270 170 128 1,981 1,737 481 5,300 Percentage change 3.4% 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% 7.5% 11.5% 2.1% 4.4% Change in population 2021 - 2026 Numeric change 492 250 158 118 2,401 789 691 4,900 Percentage change 3.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 8.5% 4.7% 2.9% 3.9% Change in population 2009 - 2026 Numeric change 1,291 665 426 352 6,121 4,398 4,398 17,656 Percentage change 8.3% 6.0% 2.7% 2.5% 24.9% 33.2% 22.1% 15.4% NOTES: (1) Population base data was sourced from ONS Mid-year Population Estimates 2007. The population for the overall study area (all zones) is projected forward using the population multipliers from the ONS Revised 2004 Sub-national Population Projections (as used for the Proposed Changes RSS). (2) The individual zone populations for 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026 have been populated by Sedgemoor District Council using information available in relation to committed development and know locations for future growth. Sedgemoor Town Centres and Retail Study Spreadsheet 3 - Comparison Goods Expenditure (per capita) Year Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 £ £ £ £ £ £ £ 2006 2,972 2,976 3,180 3,056 2,732 3,087 3,070 2009 3,330 3,335 3,563 3,424 3,061 3,459 3,440 2011 3,451 3,456 3,693 3,549 3,173 3,585 3,565 2016 3,774 3,779 4,038 3,881 3,470 3,920 3,899 2021 5,015 5,022 5,366 5,157 4,610 5,209 5,181 2026 6,175 6,184 6,608 6,350 5,677 6,414 6,379 NOTES: (1) Expenditure data derived from MapInfo 2006 per capita annual comparison goods expenditure estimates, which we have obtained through our in- house GIS system. (2) The 2006 MapInfo expenditure data has been projected forward to the base year of the study (2009). To do this we use an actual growth rate in comparison spend of 4.91% between 2006 and 2008 (sourced from the Oxford Economics Retail Briefings Update, Revised Version March 2009) and then one year of forecast growth at 1.805% per annum, which is the mid-point forecast growth figure for the 2008-2016 period given by MapInfo and Experian. Source: MapInfo Retail Spending Outlook Revised Version, March 2009 and the Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 6.1 February 2009 Changes - Table 3. (3) Expenditure for 2009 to 2016: Uses a growth rate of 1.18% per annum. This is derived from the mid-point forecast growth rate for 2008-2016 given by MapInfo and Experian. Source: MapInfo, Retail Spending Outlook Revised Version March 2009 and Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 6.1 February 2009 Changes, Table 3. (4) Expenditure growth for 2016-2021: Uses a growth rate of 5.85% per annum. This is derived from the mid-point medium term past trends in retail expenditure growth given by MapInfo and Experian. Source: MapInfo Brief 08/02, medium term past trend, Table 3 and Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 6.1, medium term past trend, Table 3.2. (5) Expenditure growth for 2021-2026: Uses a growth rate of 4.25% per annum. Derived from the mid-point ultra long term past trends given by MapInfo and Experian. Source: MapInfo Brief 08/02, ultra long term past trend, Table 3 and Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 6.1, ultra long term past trend, Table 3.2. All monetary values are held constant at 2006 prices. Sedgemoor Town Centres and Retail Study Spreadsheet 4 - Total Comparison Goods Expenditure & Expenditure Growth All Zones Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Total Year £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m Total 2009 (including SFT) 51.82 37.05 57.01 47.75 75.21 45.79 68.53 383.16 Deduction for SFT in 2009 (based upon survey avg for all zones) 6.04 4.32 6.65 5.57 8.77 5.34 7.99 44.70 Total 2009 (excluding SFT) 45.77 32.73 50.36 42.18 66.44 40.45 60.54 338.47 Total 2011 (including SFT) 54.47 38.82 59.33 49.75 80.32 48.26 73.52 404.47 Deduction for SFT in 2011 of 11.8% 6.43 4.58 7.00 5.87 9.48 5.70 8.68 47.73 Total 2011 (excluding SFT) 48.05 34.24 52.33 43.88 70.84 42.57 64.85 356.75 Total 2016 (including SFT) 59.73 42.54 65.01 54.54 91.28 59.23 90.25 462.59 Deduction for SFT in 2016 of 12.5% 7.47 5.32 8.13 6.82 11.41 7.40 11.28 57.82 Total 2016 (excluding SFT) 52.27 37.22 56.89 47.72 79.87 51.83 78.97 404.76 Total 2021 (including SFT) 82.05 57.88 87.30 73.13 130.42 87.76 122.41 640.95 Deduction for SFT in 2021 of 12.5% 10.26 7.24 10.91 9.14 16.30 10.97 15.30 80.12 Total 2021 (excluding SFT) 71.79 50.65 76.39 63.99 114.12 76.79 107.11 560.83 Total 2026 (including SFT) 104.07 72.82 108.54 90.80 174.23 113.12 155.14 818.72 Deduction for SFT in 2026 of 12.5% 13.01 9.10 13.57 11.35 21.78 14.14 19.39 102.34 Total 2026 (excluding SFT) 91.06 63.72 94.97 79.45 152.45 98.98 135.75 716.38 Growth in total expenditure 2009 - 2011 2.27 1.51 1.97 1.70 4.40 2.12 4.31 18.28 Growth in total expenditure 2011 - 2016 4.22 2.98 4.56 3.84 9.03 9.26 14.12 48.02 Growth in total expenditure 2016 - 2021 19.52 13.43 19.50 16.27 34.25 24.96 28.14 156.07 Growth in total expenditure 2021 - 2026 19.27 13.07 18.58 15.46 38.33 22.20 28.64 155.54 Growth 2009 - 2026 45.29 30.99 44.61 37.26 86.01 58.54 75.21 377.91 NOTES: (1) The figures in the above table are the products of multiplying the data presented in Spreadsheet 2 (population) by Spreadsheet 3 (per capita comparison goods expenditure), and are in millions of pounds (£m). (2) We have deducted a percentage of expenditure for Special Forms of Trading (SFT) (i.e. mail order, TV and internet shopping) from the total expenditure in 2009 using the SFT market shares derived from the telephone survey of households. Due to significant variation in the percentage spent on SFT between zones we apply the survey average of 11.43% across all zones in 2009. We have grown the expenditure for SFT to an average of 11.8% in all zones by 2011 and from 2016 onwards we use the rate of 12.5% across all zones. There is a lack of data to forecast beyond 2016, and so we assume spending on SFT will level off, remaining at 12.5% in 2021 and 2026.
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