UNP Pitchbook 5.20.2020
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
UNION PACIFIC CORPORATION May 2020 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Company’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Company’s expectations with respect to economic conditions and demand levels; its ability to generate financial returns, improve resource productivity; enhancing the customer experience; implementing corporate strategies; and providing excellent service to its customers, returns to its shareholders and potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward- looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Company’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2019, which was filed with the SEC on February 7, 2020. The Company updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Company does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Company will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein. 2 CURRENT OVERVIEW / BUSINESS UPDATE May 2020 3 First Quarter 2020 Results Earnings Per Share Operating Ratio $2.15 $1.93 63.6 +11% 59.0 -4.6 pts 2019 2020 2019 2020 All-Time Quarterly Record 4 Second Quarter Business Trends Second Quarter Volume* • Growth in Export Grain Driven by China Purchases • Food and Refrigerated Commodities Bulk -19% Impacted by the Pandemic • Low Oil Prices Limit Crude and Sand Industrial -16% Shipments • Construction Related Rock Shipments Premium -30% Currently Strong • Premium Decline due to Auto Plant TOTAL -23% Shutdowns and Overall Consumer Demand 5 *Through May 19, 2020 BUSINESS TEAM REVIEW May 2020 6 Diverse Portfolio of Business Bulk 25% 2019 Industrial 26% Volume Premium 49% Energy 17% v 2019 Results Revenue $20,243M (-5%) Volume 8,346K (-6%) ARC $2,425 (+1%) Automotive Distribution Centers Intermodal Terminals Manifest Terminals Ports Border Crossings, Gateways and Interchanges 7 ARC = Average Revenue Per Car Economic Indicators Industrial Housing Light Vehicle Imports Exports Production GDP Starts (MM) Sales (MM) of Goods of Goods 2019 0.9% 2.3% 1.30 16.9 0.3% 0.2% 2020 -12.9% -7.3% 1.10 12.4 -14.1% -4.5% 2021 5.1% 5.1% 1.24 14.2 14.4% 11.0% 8 Source: IHS Markit U.S. Economic Outlook, May 2020 2019 Freight Volumes International Trade Domestic 59% • Diverse franchise creates opportunity Other Imports • Off-shoring/near-shoring of U.S. 17% Other manufacturing Exports Imports 13% from Mexico • Demand for grain and food 6% Exports to Mexico 5% International Volumes Other – 9% Food & Beverage – 1% Metals– 1% Fertilizer – 1% Intermodal Forest Products – 2% (excl Mexico) Grain Products – 2% 54% Coal – 3% Grain – 4% Vehicles Mexico Intermodal – 7% & Parts 16% 9 Bulk Grain & Potash Grain Products Produce 34% Grain Export Fertilizer 2019 9% Volume Food & Refrigerated Dairy 9% Coal Major Grain, Grain Coal & Products, & Renewables Fertilizer Region 48% Produce Dairy Coal Dairy, Poultry Cattle, 2019 Results Poultry Cattle, Poultry Cattle Revenue $6,529M (-8%) Volume 2,087K (-9%) ARC $3,128 (+2%) Grain Grain Export Export 10 ARC = Average Revenue Per Car Grain 2014 • Grain drivers • Grain inventory management • Export market fundamentals • Food & beverage shipment demand UNP Weekly Grain Carloads* U.S. Grain Stocks** (As reported to the AAR) (Bushels in Billions) 9,000 12.5 12.9 12.0 11.6 10.7 7,500 6,000 2018 2020 4,500 2019 3,000 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Corn Soybeans Wheat 11 *Through May 16, 2020 **Source: USDA; As of March 1, 2020 Coal 2014 • Coal drivers • Weather impacts demand • Natural gas prices • Coal inventory levels UNP Weekly Coal Carloads* Electricity Generation Market Share** (As reported to the AAR) % from coal % from natural gas 50% 25,000 47% 2018 36% 38% 32% 31% 42% 15,000 2019 29% 2020 28% 21% 29% 24% 23% 19% 5,000 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q'08 1Q'10 1Q'12 1Q'14 1Q'16 1Q'18 1Q'20 12 *Through May 16, 2020 **Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Industrial Petroleum LPG Industrial Lumber, Energy & Chem & Plastic Paper Specialized 28% Sand 28% 2019 Volume Forest Steel Products Soda 10% Ash Shale Metals & Minerals 34% Copper, Iron Ore, Salt, Lime Shale and Other Shale Minerals 2019 Results Revenue $7,472M (-3%) Pipe, Volume 2,199K (-1%) Shale Cement, Shale Aggregates ARC $3,398 (-2%) Network and Regional Manifest Terminals Petroleum LPG, Shale Plastics, Major Transload Terminals Industrial Chem 13 ARC = Average Revenue Per Car • $204 billion petrochemical Plastics investment in Gulf* • Comprehensive product offerings & service excellence OKLAHOMA ARKANSAS • Dallas to Dock service solution for export plastics Dallas To East for – Plastic pellets travel in hopper cars LOUISIANA Export from Gulf region to Dallas TEXAS To Gulf for – Pellets are packaged and To LA/LB for Export Export transferred into intermodal containers for export Houston New Orleans – Katoen Natie expanding their Dallas Corpus Christi packaging facility to double capacity Future Expansions to 500,000+ square feet by Q4 2017-2019 Expansions 2020 UP SIT Facility – KTN has the ability to grow to 2.5 million square feet 14 *Source: American Chemistry Council, June 2019 Shale Related Volumes Crude Oil Volume (000s) First Quarter Volume % Incr % of Total 75 2020* (000s) (vs 2019) UP Volume 46 46 14 24 Crude 24 68% 1.2% 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q 20 Frac Sand** 21 (41%) 1.1% * Exclude pipe related to shale activity * *Includes Barites Frac Sand Volume* • Crude oil drivers (By Shale, 000s) • Crude oil price spreads • Production & demand 230 233 • Pipeline capacity • Frac sand drivers 119 122 • Energy prices • Rig counts 21 • Enhanced fracing technology 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q 2020 • White / brown sand mix Eagle Ford Permian DJ Basin Marcellus/Utica Other 15 Housing Trends Lumber, Stone & Glass • Housing market still well below historical UP Wkly Housing Starts averages Carloadings* (mils) 10,000 2.0 • UP lumber, stone & glass business correlates with housing starts 1.8 8,000 • Housing also drives appliances, roofing, 1.6 rebar, aggregates, and cement demand 1.4 • Housing related shipments represent ~ 5 - 6,000 10% of current UP volumes 1.2 1.0 4,000 0.8 2,000 0.6 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 IHS Global Insight forecast 16 *Through May 16, 2020 Premium Intermodal 79% 2019 Volume Automotive 21% Agricultural 13% Industrial 26% v 2019 Results Energy 17% Revenue $6,242M (-6%) Volume 4,060K (-7%) Automotive Distribution Centers ARC $1,538 (+2%) Intermodal Terminals Ports Border Crossings, Gateways and Interchanges 17 ARC = Average Revenue Per Car Highway Conversion Growth Opportunities Cass Truckload Linehaul Index 145 • Highway conversion opportunities in 135 all business groups 125 115 • High insurance costs 105 95 2008 Mar 2020 • Drug & alcohol testing Transportation Mode • Truck capacity (By Tonnage) Water 6% Rail • LOUP 11% Truck 83% 18 Source: Cass Information Systems, Index uses January 2005 as its base month, U.S DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics Butler Intermodal Terminal Hybrid Service Product – Valor Victoria Manly Butler Boone Council Bluffs Council Bluffs LA Initial Intermodal Service Manifest Service Short Line Service Private Intermodal Terminal 19 Finished Vehicles Eastport Seattle Duluth Portland Twin Cities Chicago Omaha Oakland Salt Lake City Denver Kansas St. Louis City U.S. Light Vehicle SAAR* Los Memphis 17.4 17.5 Angeles 17.1 17.2 16.9 Dallas 14.2 New Orleans 12.4 Houston Borders & Interchange Distribution Centers/Ports (UP Owned/Leased