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Where's Everybody

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Where's Everybody OPINION POLL 3YEARS PL GOVERNMENT SURVEY CONDUCTED BY MALTAPOLLS 11/ 03/ 20 16 1. SURVEY METHODOLOGY 1.1 The survey was based on a questionnaire composed of four opinion questions and four demographic questions. 1.2 The study is based on a set of 600 completed telephone interviews, with a simple random sample drawn from Maltese registered voters who have a telephone installed at home. Statistically, at the 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error for this type of study is estimated to be ± 4.2% (on issues with an expected 50/50 split points). To reduce the maximum 4.2% (as per mentioned above) to a maximum of 3%, the sample size would have to be increased to 1100, which is not recommended for this kind of project. 1.3 Respondents were selected through a one-step probability sampling procedure based on the last issue of the Electoral Register, which was matched with the telephone directory for this purpose. Respondents who do not subscribe for a GO telephone service were looked up in the Hello directory. If still untraceable, such persons were replaced. A random seed was used to identify the first respondent points; subsequent respondents were selected at regular intervals from the Maltese Electoral Register. In order to minimise the sampling error, the electoral register was divided into six equal parts. 1.4 A total of 1416 contacts were made, 600 of which accepted to be interviewed. 1.5 Interviews were carried out between Monday 7th and Thursday 10th March 2016 between 9am and noon and between 4pm and 8pm. 1.6 Call backs were performed randomly from the completed sample. 1.7 This methodology is used in other opinion surveys, both locally and abroad. 1.8 All the results for the quantitative study have been weighted by the Gender and Age of the population as per the Malta Demographic Review of 2013 issued by the NSO. 1.9 The results are as follows. 2 2. THE RESULTS 2.1.1 Respondents were asked the question: ‘Which is the most important issue that is being discussed right now?’ Respondents were not prompted and could mention more than one issue. The most popular issue was corruption with 37.0% followed by 34.8% mentioning they are not bothered with any issue. The results were the following: (See table below) 1 Corruption 37.0% 2 Nothing – no issue, everything is fine 34.8% 3 Fighting between politicians, from both sides 5.0% 4 Low wages and Pensions and work conditions 4.8% 5 Illegal immigration 4.3% 6 Negative opposition 3.8% 7 Traffic and Public transport 2.7% 8 Meritocracy, Transparency and Accountability 1.5% 9 Everything 1.0% 10 Environment 0.7% 10 Security 0.7% 2.2.1 The Respondents were asked ‘How would you rate the government’s performance in these last three years?’ 44.3% rated the government’s performance positive and only 27.2% gave the government a negative rating. Overall the government has a 17.1% positive rating. The results were the following: (See table below) 1 Very Good 13.8% 2 Good 30.5% 3 Neither good nor bad 28.5% 4 Bad 17.4% 5 Very Bad 9.8% 3 2.2.2 When one analyses the results according to how the respondents voted in the last elections, one finds that 86.4% PL voters in 2013 except switchers, 43.9% of the switchers (voted PL in 2013 but PN in 2008) and 7.7% of PN voters in 2013 rate the government’s performance positive. On the other hand 3.4% PL voters in 2013, 21.1% of the switchers (voted PL in 2013 but PN in 2008) and 61.0% of PN voters in 2013, rate the government’s performance as negative. The results can be seen as follows: PL Voters 2013 Switchers PN Voters excluding (voted PL in 2013 2013 % switchers % but PN in 2008) % Very Good 37.5 10.5 0.0 Good 48.9 33.3 7.7 Neither good 10.2 35.1 31.3 nor bad Bad 2.7 12.3 34.4 Very Bad 0.8 8.8 26.7 2.3.1 Respondents were then asked: ‘Which leader would you trust most to lead the country, Joseph Muscat or Simon Busuttil?’ Joseph Muscat leads Simon Busuttil by 10.7%. 40.7% of the respondents trust Joseph Muscat the most whilst 30.0% put their trust in Simon Busuttil. A significant 29.3% of the population does not trust either of the two leaders. The results were the following (See table below): % Joseph Muscat 40.7 Simon Busuttil 30.0 Neither 29.3 4 2.3.2 When one analyses this result by sex, Joseph Muscat’s trust lead is much bigger in males (16.2%) than in females (5.3%). The result was analysed by sex as follows (See table below): % % Males Females Joseph Muscat 43.1 38.3 Simon Busuttil 26.9 33.0 Neither 30.0 28.7 2.3.3 When one analyses the results according to how the respondents voted in the last elections, the results can be seen as follows: PL Voters 2013 Switchers PN Voters excluding (voted PL in 2013 2013 % switchers % but PN in 2008) % Joseph Muscat 87.9 36.8 4.6 Simon Busuttil 1.9 29.8 79.5 Neither 10.2 33.4 15.9 2.4.1 Respondents were then asked ‘If a general election were to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for?’ A relative majority said that they would vote for the Labour Party 37.4%. This was followed by the Nationalist Party 35.6%, 2.3% said they would vote for AD, 1.9% would vote for another party and 13.5% would not vote. 9.3% are still undecided. The results were the following: (See table next page) 5 % PL 37.4 PN 35.6 AD 2.3 Others 1.9 Would not vote 13.5 Don’t know 9.3 2.4.2 If the result is analysed according to the voting intentions presented, excluding the don’t knows and the ones who are not going to vote, and compare them to the results of the last general election, the PL still has a relative majority but has lost 6.3% since the last general election. The PN has increased 2.8% since the last general election and the gap between the two parties has reduced to 2.4%. Results are as follows: (See table below) 2013 election Difference % % % PL 48.5 54.8 -6.3 PN 46.1 43.3 +2.8 AD 3.0 1.8 +1.2 Others 2.4 0.1 +2.3 2.4.3 When one analyses the result according to how the respondents voted in the last elections, the results can be seen as follows: 6 PL Voters 2013 Switchers PN Voters excluding (voted PL in 2013 2013 % switchers % but PN in 2008) % PL 83.3 31.6 3.6 PN 3.4 31.6 83.1 AD 0.0 3.5 0.0 Others 0.4 0.0 1.0 Would not vote 7.2 15.8 3.6 Don’t know 5.7 17.5 8.7 7 3. CONCLUSIONS 3.1 The most popular issue at the moment is corruption leading with 37%, followed by 34.8% of the interviewees saying that they are not concerned with any issues and that everything is fine. 3.2 The government’s performance rating for these last three years is on the whole positive with 17.1% more positive than negative. 3.3 When one analyses the results by past election choices, the government is rated overall more positive than negative by 82.9% of the PL voters in 2013 and 22.7% of the switchers. The government is rated more negative than positive by 53.4% of the PN voters of 2013. 3.4 Joseph Muscat leads Simon Busuttil in trust ratings by 10.7%. 3.5 The lead in trust ratings that Joseph Muscat enjoys over Simon Busuttil is significantly higher in Males (16.2%) and lower (5.3%) in Females. 3.6 If an election were to be held tomorrow, PL still possesses a relative majority of 48.5% but has lost 6.3% since the last general election. The PN has increased by 2.8% since the last general election to 46.1% and the gap between the two parties has reduced to 2.4%. 3.7 The shift from the PL voters (except switchers) to PN voters amounts to 3.4%, and the shift from PN to PL amounts to 3.6% and is not significant, but the major loss for the PL is in the switcher category. In the switcher category, where people voted PL in 2013 and PN in 2008, PL only secured the votes of 31.6%, losing 31.6% to PN, 3.5% to AD, and 15.8% of the voters saying that they will not be voting. 8 .
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